S31: Preview & Speculation

[Whimsy]

As a reminder, there is NO preview talk in the episode threads. Instead, bring your comments about the previews, including speculation based on previews. NO SPOILERS here. 

[millennium]

There's no sane reason why Rupert Boneham is still bumbling across our screens in 2019.

TAR has become the Love Boat of CBS reality series.

[jumper sage]

Just wanted to say, "Hurray!"  It is too long between seasons.

[lexington11]

4 hours ago, millennium said:

There's no sane reason why Rupert Boneham is still bumbling across our screens in 2019.

TAR has become the Love Boat of CBS reality series.

For that matter, why does CBS think we need a 5th reality TV appearance from Rachel Reilly?

[millennium]

1 hour ago, lexington11 said:

For that matter, why does CBS think we need a 5th reality TV appearance from Rachel Reilly?

Or Tyler Oakley, or any of them?   IMO, the best seasons have always been run by no-name ordinary people.   Can't believe this is what we get after more than a year.   Actually, I can believe it, which makes it worse.

[LadyChatts]

Since they brought Colin/Christie back after a long hiatus, I wish they had brought other long ago racer teams back over the likes of Art/JJ (guessing they got cast just to clash with Rachel again), Leo/Jaamal, and Tyler/Korey.  I get why they cast Rupert, although the Survivor teams are still kind of interesting picks.  I know they are probably expecting lots of drama and eye rolls and fighting from Corinne/Eliza.

I still can't remember Bret/Chris.  The BB teams make the most sense in terms of pairs.

[SnideAsides]

The preview didn't fill me with hope (after this premiere, the LAST things we need are another lame twist on the U-Turn and a bunch of boring You Are Ballast challenges, regardless of location), but also CORINNE AND ELIZA CAPSIZING A BASKET BOAT.

[Lantern7]

Clip from next week's episode:

I'm very disappointed by the lack of content on the official TAR YouTube site.

[Lantern7]

Here’s the teaser for the next episode.

Do they make saddles for elephants? 🤔

[Lantern7]

Here are leg averages after six episodes. Second set of numbers are the averages with the best and worst placements taken out.

Not much to report, save that stats don't seem to cover Chris & Bret being potential dark horses to win. My biggest fear is a win from the Reilly Sisters. They're the only team I cannot stand left in the game. I feel teams like that have a habit of overstaying their welcome.

Edited May 28, 2019 by Lantern7

[displayname]

On 4/12/2019 at 3:20 AM, LadyChatts said:

Since they brought Colin/Christie back after a long hiatus, I wish they had brought other long ago racer teams back over the likes of Art/JJ (guessing they got cast just to clash with Rachel again), Leo/Jaamal, and Tyler/Korey. 

I wish we'd seen Kris/Jon instead of Art/JJ. The other two I am fine with, but since L/J have already done an All Stars, I wish they'd gone for Flo/Zac, instead.

Edited May 28, 2019 by displayname

[lexington11]

On 5/28/2019 at 7:07 AM, displayname said:

I wish we'd seen Kris/Jon instead of Art/JJ. The other two I am fine with, but since L/J have already done an All Stars, I wish they'd gone for Flo/Zac, instead.

I'm glad they didn't, because having Eliza, Corinne, Rachel, and Flo all on the same season would be way too much for me

[pivot]

So in the preview, it looks like Rachel gets karma and gets voted publicly into the U-Turn. At first, I hated this twist, but now that I think about it, it basically ends up punishing the asshole teams. 

Votes for the Assholes (Rachel and plastic sister): Zac/Nic, Bret/Chris, and Tyler/Korey.

Votes for no one (if that is allowed): Team Fun, Colin/Christie

Votes for Colin/Christie: Team Fun, Afghanimals

Votes for Team Fun: the Assholes just to be petty and Colin/Christie for clique reasons

[displayname]

21 hours ago, lexington11 said:

I'm glad they didn't, because having Eliza, Corinne, Rachel, and Flo all on the same season would be way too much for me

But imagine if she's changed, too! Assuming Kris/Jon haven't, that would have been three classic teams representing what TAR was originally meant to be. Maybe knock out one of the Big Brother teams or Rupert/Laura and replace them with Kelly/Jon, too.

Based off the preview, with Rachel's "That was a million dollars, guys" comment, I think they're getting voted into the U-Turn. Collective decision can be based off the following:

• Nicole/Victor have it in their interests to U-Turn the weakest team left, and didn't like what happened with the sisters anyway;
• C&C and Tyler/Korey are the strongest left, and they are smart enough to know it might be coming for them. Instead, they turn it against the Reillys who they know have trampled several toes;
• Team Fun and Afghanimals weren't pleased with their backstabbing. Moreover, they are strong all on their own, and might try to bank on the train drama to save themselves;
• Brett/Chris weren't too pleased with their behavior, and might just see this as what's coming from everyone else, anyway.

Only three of those need to be true for the majority vote against the Reillys, and the first one is probably a guarantee. The Reillys themselves will likely go after after Nicole/Victor.

Edited May 30, 2019 by displayname

[Hera]

Since all the teams are there, that means there's some kind of bunch. I think they all finished close enough together that it wouldn't be that hard to bunch them in the next leg, but maybe this is something they do before the leg officially starts. Either way, the vote will probably be at/near the start of the leg. In that case, I think the strategy changes for who gets U-Turned.

If you U-Turn a strong team (any of the top three from the last leg), they might survive—after all, it happened earlier this seasons with Becca/Floyd and Tyler/Korey—especially since they know it's coming, so they'll be looking to build up as much of a time buffer as possible. Furthermore with this type of U-Turn, you're not U-Turning a team that is already behind you, you're U-Turning someone who might make it to the detour well ahead of you.

Therefore, if you're serious about trying to use the U-Turn to knock someone out of the race, then it makes more sense to choose a weak team. That leaves the Reilly sisters or Chris/Bret, and given this last leg, I'd be worried if I were Rachel or Elissa.

I'd also be tempted to vote for Nicole and Victor, since a U-Turn plus a speed bump means that they'd have two more challenges to do on the leg than anyone else, so it would be harder for them to make up the time. The fact that they've been one of the stronger teams makes them more appealing as a target. If I were Tyler/Korey, Colin/Christie or Becca/Floyd, I would be more worried about facing Victor/Nicole in future legs than I would about Rachel/Elissa or Chris/Bret.

[displayname]

3 hours ago, Hera said:

I'd also be tempted to vote for Nicole and Victor, since a U-Turn plus a speed bump means that they'd have two more challenges to do on the leg than anyone else, so it would be harder for them to make up the time. The fact that they've been one of the stronger teams makes them more appealing as a target.

This + pettiness is why I think the Reillys will go after them. But I think most will likely just want to save themselves, and since they all know what happened in the train, they might just end up banking on that.

Edited May 31, 2019 by displayname

[green]

Well since we now know all the endless footage from this last episode was meant just to set-up and explain this vote on the coming episode I don't think it will come down to C&C, Chris & Bret or the Afganibles since all the drama was on Rachel/Sister and Victor & Nicole with a little on Team Fun.

(I say "endless" because they could have told the story a lot quicker with a tighter edit but it went on and on like forever with constant repeats et al.  I thought the endless nature of this storyline was weird at the time).

Add in the point Phil made at the mat about Rachel being only tied at being the all time most legs run winner and she would hold the record alone if she gets through the next one and the edit this past episode seems to say Rachel is toast this coming episode to me.  (Worst case for most of us, she is U-Turned and "heroically" fights through to survive and take the record despite all odds.  Please, race gods, not this ending).

But either way I say she gets U-Turned.

At least I hope so.  Please do NOT U-Turn C&C.  Colin has been such a nice boy so far he deserves to escape this U-Turn as the BB teams hopefully devour each other.

Which also explains the editing all season about the BB teams all supposedly allied with each other etc etc just for these moment.

Edited June 1, 2019 by green

[lexington11]

On 5/30/2019 at 11:51 AM, displayname said:

• Brett/Chris weren't too pleased with their behavior, and might just see this as what's coming from everyone else, anyway.

Only three of those need to be true for the majority vote against the Reillys, and the first one is probably a guarantee. The Reillys themselves will likely go after after Nicole/Victor.

I see this scenario as likely, because Nicole & Victor mentioned on their podcast that when the whole mat drama with Rachel & Elissa happened, Chris & Bret weren't too happy with how personal the sisters (mostly Rachel) were getting, so I can see them also targeting the sisters based on that.

[chitowngirl]

If there is a puzzle of some sort at the very end, I wonder if it will be to match the jumping/bungee/gliding task to the country it happened in. There seems to have been a lot this cycle!

[chaifan]

On 6/2/2019 at 1:58 PM, chitowngirl said:

If there is a puzzle of some sort at the very end, I wonder if it will be to match the jumping/bungee/gliding task to the country it happened in. There seems to have been a lot this cycle!

How about match the bad plastic surgery to the contestant, in the order in which they were Philiminated? 

[spanana]

On 6/2/2019 at 12:01 AM, lexington11 said:

I see this scenario as likely, because Nicole & Victor mentioned on their podcast that when the whole mat drama with Rachel & Elissa happened, Chris & Bret weren't too happy with how personal the sisters (mostly Rachel) were getting, so I can see them also targeting the sisters based on that.

Also while I know it's a race and all that, Nic/Vic have also said that up until that point in the race they were closest to Team Fun and Chris/Bret.  Now Team Fun I see doing whatever the heck they want and maybe playing it more strategically, but I see Chris/Bret mostly trying to stay out of the way and piss off the least amount of people possible.  So even besides the fact that they are friends with Nicole/Victor, if everyone wants to go after the Rachel/Elissa, I could see them just agreeing and going along with it.

Mind you I think Victor mentioning that Chris/Bret jumped in to defend them on the mat was as much about him trying to get across that they were right and the sisters were wrong and it was all a bit self serving on his end, I assume some version of that actually happened or he wouldn't have said it.

But I agree that it's most likely Rachel/Elissa ending up u-turned.  While they could do Colin/Christie or Nic/Vic and giving it to Nic/Vic might just make it very well impossible for them to stay in it, I'm also not sure the racers wouldn't just give it to another back of the pack team and have two teams at a disadvantage and know they just have to beat one.

I'm also not sure most of the racers talking about u-turning Colin/Christie would have the balls to do in when face to face with them.

Edited June 3, 2019 by spanana

[displayname]

On 5/30/2019 at 9:21 PM, displayname said:

But imagine if she's changed, too! Assuming Kris/Jon haven't, that would have been three classic teams representing what TAR was originally meant to be. Maybe knock out one of the Big Brother teams or Rupert/Laura and replace them with Kelly/Jon, too.

Based off the preview, with Rachel's "That was a million dollars, guys" comment, I think they're getting voted into the U-Turn. Collective decision can be based off the following:

• Nicole/Victor have it in their interests to U-Turn the weakest team left, and didn't like what happened with the sisters anyway;
• C&C and Tyler/Korey are the strongest left, and they are smart enough to know it might be coming for them. Instead, they turn it against the Reillys who they know have trampled several toes;
• Team Fun and Afghanimals weren't pleased with their backstabbing. Moreover, they are strong all on their own, and might try to bank on the train drama to save themselves;
• Brett/Chris weren't too pleased with their behavior, and might just see this as what's coming from everyone else, anyway.

Only three of those need to be true for the majority vote against the Reillys, and the first one is probably a guarantee. The Reillys themselves will likely go after after Nicole/Victor.

Well, this was all wrong.

[lexington11]

8 hours ago, displayname said:

Well, this was all wrong.

The real shocker in that U-Turn vote was that for once, Rachel didn't play personal, and neither did the Afghanimals

[Lantern7]

Leg averages after eight legs. Second set of numbers are averages with each team's best and worst performances taken out.

Except for the Afghanimals, the teams are holding up okay after getting their averages adjusted. The only team I'm rooting against now is Nicole & Victor because they're Big Brother. Also, Victor did The Challenge, and a win by hm means we'd get drowned in a flood of Challengers thanks to the "suggestions" of CBS execs. And even when you disqualify those that aren't American citizens (Kyle, Joss, Bear), you're still left with a near-endless river of assholes. Paulie & Cara Maria racing? If that doesn't make you shudder, then you don't watch The Challenge . . . and for that, I envy you.

Oh, and I want the Afghanimals to at least show up for the final leg because 1. They'd break Rachel's record, and 2. They would avoid being the only three-time team not to make a final run for the grand prize. I get how they can grate, but I don't have beef with them. Ditto for the other TAR teams that have kept first place "in the family" and the unexpected snark from Chris & Bret. Maybe they'll get more Instagram followers after this season.

Here are clips from tomorrow's episode. Looks like Mt. Colinomajaro might be erupting . . . or at least rumble a little. "Our sponsor gnome is lost! This is bullshit!!!!"

And the return of airport drama! Also, Becca's hair unbraided. It's not shocking, but you might do a double take.

Edited June 12, 2019 by Lantern7

[lexington11]

11 hours ago, Lantern7 said:

 Also, Victor did The Challenge, and a win by hm means we'd get drowned in a flood of Challengers thanks to the "suggestions" of CBS execs. And even when you disqualify those that aren't American citizens (Kyle, Joss, Bear), you're still left with a near-endless river of assholes. Paulie & Cara Maria racing? If that doesn't make you shudder, then you don't watch The Challenge . . . and for that, I envy you.

I'm with you there, because not only would CBS wanting Challengers on the show mean that Paulie & Cara Maria would sign up in a heartbeat, since Paulie's about as relentless as Rachel is when it comes to extending his 15 minutes of fame, and no thank you on that, but Bananas would also sign up, and he's another one I want off my TV for good.

[chaifan]

The preview for next week shows a double U turn.  Is that unusual this late in the race?  Personally, at this point, I'd rather have racers advance solely on skill, not on contrivances such as U turns. 

As for speculation of who will be targeted, these teams are almost all equally matched, with the Afghanimals being a bit weaker than the rest.  But I think Tyler & Corey will again get passed over for teams trying to eliminate the "stronger" team of Colin & Christie. 

[HurricaneVal]

I also squee'd when I saw that the preview had a repeat of the infamous "pole vault across the ditch" comp from a previous season.  That one caused many meltdowns in its original season.  I can't wait to see what happens with this group!  The preview showed Nicole having issues, but I'll bet everyone has issues.  That looks hard!

[chaifan]

4 hours ago, HurricaneVal said:

I also squee'd when I saw that the preview had a repeat of the infamous "pole vault across the ditch" comp from a previous season.  That one caused many meltdowns in its original season.  I can't wait to see what happens with this group!  The preview showed Nicole having issues, but I'll bet everyone has issues.  That looks hard!

But will anyone strip down to their underwear?

[Guest]

8 hours ago, chaifan said:

The preview for next week shows a double U turn.  Is that unusual this late in the race?  Personally, at this point, I'd rather have racers advance solely on skill, not on contrivances such as U turns. 

No. The last U turn has been on leg 10 several times. In TAR14 it actually helped determine the final 3. That one really irritated me because it played a huge part in Jen and Kisha not making the finals.

If teams want to try and target a stronger team this is the time to do it. The leg 10 U turn has taken out some very strong teams in the past. 

I wonder if some of the teams will work together to target a team and block the second U-turn. Tyler and Corey used that strategy in their original season. 

[theschnauzers]

It turns out the vault across the creek will be making its third appearance with this coming episode (TAR 12, leg 2,  and season 21, leg 9). I think the only other time a specific task has shown up more than twice was the infamous head shaving task in seasons 5, 7 and 20.

Edited June 14, 2019 by theschnauzers
typo

[chaifan]

13 hours ago, Dani said:

No. The last U turn has been on leg 10 several times. In TAR14 it actually helped determine the final 3. That one really irritated me because it played a huge part in Jen and Kisha not making the finals.

If teams want to try and target a stronger team this is the time to do it. The leg 10 U turn has taken out some very strong teams in the past. 

I wonder if some of the teams will work together to target a team and block the second U-turn. Tyler and Corey used that strategy in their original season. 

Thanks for the reminder.  I suppose you can say that a U turn this late in the game will almost always take out a "very strong team", because that's pretty much what's left at this point.  (Some exceptions.)

Two teams working together to target one stronger team is a great strategy at this point.  I think Afghanimals and Nicole & Victor are the two weakest.  Afghanimals due to their inconsistency & self-navigation issues, and I think Nicole is in Killer Fatigue territory.  If they were smart about it, they'd team up and target one of the other 3 teams.  But I still think Colin & Christie are perceived to be the strongest team.  The fact that they made it through another U turn may save them, though, if teams think that would be a wasted vote.

I commented on Tyler & Corey's thread that I think if both T&C and C&C were U-turned, that would be a really good match between 2 very strong teams.

Someone please remind me - is there, or was there, a rule that you can only use your U turn vote once during the entire race? 

[lexington11]

59 minutes ago, chaifan said:

and I think Nicole is in Killer Fatigue territory. 

I agree, because she's open about the fact that it doesn't take much for her to get rattled/go into anxiety mode, and this can easily knock her & Victor out of the race this late in the game

[Lantern7]

Out of curiosity, has there been a Racer who ran a great leg on their birthday? From what little I remember, it usually doesn't work out well. Also, this was filmed on June 30. Thanks, Wikipedia!!

"She swallowed so much water!"

Hey, something Colin hasn't done before!

And here are leg placement averages going into tomorrow night's episode, This time, I adjusted and readjusted the averages, taking out best and worst performances.

Nothing new to report, save that Tyler & Korey have worked their way to being contenders after winning four legs in a row. Leo & Jamal seem to be longshots after winning the first two legs; at this point, I would want them to finish the Race so that they take Rachel's legs-run record from her.

[MVFrostsMyPie]

I feel like the clip of Christy crying in the helicopter for next week's episode is something that the editors think will throw us off to think C&C won't win, but I feel like she's probably crying tears of happiness because they're about to land, can see Phil, and know they're first. Would one-half of Team Zen cry from sadness? Doesn't seem likely, unless the pressure finally does them in, or they do horribly at one of the final tasks. 

[displayname]

I think I heard a woman gasping when Phil said "you are the winners of the amazing race", and it sounded like Christie instead of Nicole.

[AZChristian]

3 hours ago, displayname said:

I think I heard a woman gasping when Phil said "you are the winners of the amazing race", and it sounded like Christie instead of Nicole.

Because if it were Nicole, the gasp would have sounded more like the beginning of a whine . . . (gasp) "This has been so haaaaard.  Are you suuuuure?  I think you're playing a mean jooooooke by saying that."

She's the most annoying racer EVER.  And I don't watch BB, so I didn't have a pre-conceived opinion of her.  (And I really like Victor and hate to think of the poor guy living with that.)  

[displayname]

32 minutes ago, AZChristian said:

Because if it were Nicole, the gasp would have sounded more like the beginning of a whine

🤐It was just a deeper voice than Nicole's.

[hendersonrocks]

Quote

I feel like the clip of Christy crying in the helicopter for next week's episode is something that the editors think will throw us off to think C&C won't win, but I feel like she's probably crying tears of happiness because they're about to land, can see Phil, and know they're first.

That clip definitely caught my eye too. I fervently hope your interpretation is what actually happens next week and I honestly feel like I might cry if it does. I would be so thrilled if they won - I don't feel like I've had this level of investment in a team in a looong time. (I've always had teams that I've liked more or less than others, but this season I just REALLY want Colin & Christie to win.)

I couldn't really tell from the previews - do we know if next week a two-parter, where a team gets eliminated at the end of hour one and then the remaining three race to the end?

[lexington11]

4 hours ago, AZChristian said:

]

She's the most annoying racer EVER.  

I would agree except that this season also featured Rachel, and I prefer Nicole's whining to Rachel being way too over the top/taking everything so personally

[AZChristian]

6 minutes ago, lexington11 said:

I would agree except that this season also featured Rachel, and I prefer Nicole's whining to Rachel being way too over the top/taking everything so personally

I (thankfully) had forgotten Rachel.  I stand corrected.  

[Scatterbrained]

IIRC, Leo & Jamal went out in 4th place both times they played.  So, I speculate that they will do so again.