2018 Awards Season

[starri]

I dunno, Darkest Hours doesn't seem to have as much traction as it should.  I don't know if history can be overcome or not, but Chalamet's performance actually is that good.

[Silver Raven]

It looks like Robert Lopez and Kristen Anderson-Lopez have a shot at another Oscar, for "Remember Me" from Coco.

[SeanC]

The 2018 Golden Globes nominations:

Quote

Best Animated Film:
The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Ferdinand
Coco
Loving Vincent

Easy win for Coco.

Quote

Best Original Score – Motion Picture:
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
The Shape of Water
Phantom Thread
The Post
Dunkirk

Dunkirk is the only one of these I've seen thus far.

Quote

Best Screenplay – Motion Picture:
The Shape of Water
Lady Bird
The Post
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Molly’s Game

Strong group (based on those I've seen or read reviews of).

Quote

Best Motion Picture – Foreign Language
A Fantastic Woman
First They Killed My Father
In the Fade
Loveless

The Square

The HFPA loves stars, so I wouldn't be surprised to see Jolie's film take this.

Quote

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy:
Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes
Ansel Elgort, Baby Driver
James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out

This feels like an easy win for Franco.

Quote

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture:
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water

Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Plummer getting a nomination is kind of awesome.  All the Money in the World remains one of the last notable films this year that critics, etc., haven't seen yet, but the HFPA clearly must have liked it.

Quote

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture:
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Hong Chau, Downsizing
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

This category ends up being only 2/5 white, heartening people who want to avert another #OscarsSoWhite moment.  Though I can make cases why all three of the other nominees won't go the distance, so I expect it will be a near-run thing.

Quote

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama:
Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Meryl Streep, The Post
Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World

Molly's Game managed two nominations despite being on the decided back burner in this awards conversation now.

Quote

Best Director – Motion Picture:
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Ridley Scott, All The Money in the World
Steven Spielberg, The Post

They really liked All the Money in the World, it seems.

Quote

Best Picture – Drama:
Call Me by Your Name
Dunkirk
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Strong group (again, based mainly on reputation).

Quote

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy: 
Judi Dench, Victoria & Abdul
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes
Helen Mirren, The Leisure Seeker

Helen Mirren gets in out of nowhere for a movie I've never heard of.  This feels like a pretty sure thing for Ronan, though I guess Robbie could upset.

Quote

Best Picture – Comedy or Musical: 
The Disaster Artist
Get Out
The Greatest Showman
I, Tonya
Lady Bird

I could see three different winners here, depending on how far they're willing to take the idea of Get Out as a comedy (based on The Martian's win, they're willing to take it a ways).

Quote

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama:
Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Tom Hanks, The Post
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.

Chalamet certainly stands out in an otherwise veteran lineup (seven Oscar wins between them).

Edited December 11, 2017 by SeanC

[hendersonrocks]

I am really surprised The Big Sick was shut out (even Holly Hunter!). My hope is this is a kick in the pants for Oscar voters to make sure it doesn't get blanked there too.

[absnow54]

Wow, I hadn't even noticed the Big Sick snub. The Musical/Comedy category seems pretty stacked this year, but I think Big Sick deserved a slot over The Disaster Artist (and possibly The Greatest Showman, since I can only go off previews.) I'm surprised it was snubbed from screenplay, but again, a lot of competition this year, it'll probably fare better for writing at the Oscars, since they separate the originals and adaptations.

I'm shocked that neither Jordan Peele or Greta Gerwig got a directing nom. The Ridley Scott nomination is odd, since it missed best picture (they obviously want to take advantage of the "We reshot this movie in two weeks!" narrative)

[xaxat]

5 hours ago, SeanC said:

Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World

Seriously? Plummer may well be deserving of a nomination (I think he's a better option than Spacey.), but they finished the reshoot less than two weeks ago. How many members actually watched the finished version before putting in their vote?

[thuganomics85]

While I usually don't get too concerned with the Globes since they're always a bit wacky, I'm bummed that The Big Sick got shutout.  Hopefully it will fare better with the Oscars.  Of course, now that I think about it, the Globes combine both Original and Adapted Screenplay for their category, so I still think Big Sick at least has a shot of getting a nomination there.

While I doubt he will win, I do think Christopher Plummer will at least get a nod and while I'm sure he will be good in it, part of it will be the Academy's way of saying "Fuck you for being a horrible person" to Kevin Spacey.

For the Globe actors, I'm pretty sure the comedy trophies are going to James Franco and Saoirse Ronan (unless Margot Robbie slips in due to last minute momentum), but I have no clue who will win the drama ones.  Same with the supporting actors.  I know Dafoe is the frontrunner, but I can easily see the Globes going another direction (see: last year where Mahershala Ali lost to someone who didn't even get an Oscar nod.)

[AshleyN]

Yeah, the total snub of The Big Sick was the first thing I noticed. Not even a nod for Holly Hunter, who seemed fairly comfortable in the Supporting Actress race.

6 hours ago, SeanC said:

This feels like an easy win for Franco.

Molly's Game managed two nominations despite being on the decided back burner in this awards conversation now.

Chalamet certainly stands out in an otherwise veteran lineup (seven Oscar wins between them).

I would say that Kaluuya has a shot at Comedy Actor, but based on the Director and Screenplay snubs it doesn't seem like they were really over-the-moon for Get Out.

As for Molly's Game, the HFPA are big fans of both Sorkin and Chastain -- Sorkin won a couple of years ago for his Steve Jobs script despite the movie not even being nominated for Best Picture, and the Globes were among the only groups to recognize Chastain for A Most Violent Year and Miss Sloane. I was actually kind of half-expecting them to nominate Idris Elba, who's another favourite of theirs.

I know it's been mentioned here, but given Oldman's well-publicized criticism of the HFPA in the past, could Chalamet actually win here? If he does, and that's combined with his critics wins then, too young or not, he has to be considered a real threat to win the Oscar, no? I guess SAG would be the real tell, assuming Oldman takes the BAFTA, which seems highly likely.

36 minutes ago, thuganomics85 said:

While I usually don't get too concerned with the Globes since they're always a bit wacky, I'm bummed that The Big Sick got shutout.  Hopefully it will fare better with the Oscars.  Of course, now that I think about it, the Globes combine both Original and Adapted Screenplay for their category, so I still think Big Sick at least has a shot of getting a nomination there.

While I doubt he will win, I do think Christopher Plummer will at least get a nod and while I'm sure he will be good in it, part of it will be the Academy's way of saying "Fuck you for being a horrible person" to Kevin Spacey.

For the Globe actors, I'm pretty sure the comedy trophies are going to James Franco and Saoirse Ronan (unless Margot Robbie slips in due to last minute momentum), but I have no clue who will win the drama ones.  Same with the supporting actors. I know Dafoe is the frontrunner, but I can easily see the Globes going another direction (see: last year where Mahershala Ali lost to someone who didn't even get an Oscar nod. )

I could 100% see the Globes going with Armie Hammer in that category.

Edited December 11, 2017 by AshleyN

[Silver Raven]

No Jordan Peele, huh?  That may be a big deal down the road.  I hope the Directors' Guild rectifies that.

[SeanC]

3 hours ago, xaxat said:

Seriously? Plummer may well be deserving of a nomination (I think he's a better option than Spacey.), but they finished the reshoot less than two weeks ago. How many members actually watched the finished version before putting in their vote?

They held a big screening for the HFPA a couple of days ago, per reports.  They're the only people who have seen it thus far.

[methodwriter85]

Honestly, what better way to say "Fuck you" to Kevin Spacey than to award his literally-last minute replacement with a nomination? Plummer might have also been the first choice, but he still had a very, very short time to film all his scenes.

SNL should do a skit where they run through Kevin Spacey movie roles with various actors replacing him in the parts.

[Ms Blue Jay]

Some people are very disappointed with the Globe nominations.  Besides the already mentioned snubs:

- Greta Gerwig having no director nomination for Lady Bird despite being 100% on Rotten Tomatoes (apparently it finally got a lukewarm review?)

- no female director nominations despite it being a great year for female filmmakers

- a very WHITE category for Best Picture - Drama - I've read criticisms from POC critics and white critics alike that Three Billboards is extremely problematic 

[Silver Raven]

1 hour ago, Ms Blue Jay said:

I've read criticisms from POC critics and white critics alike that Three Billboards is extremely problematic 

Only if they want to find things to make it problematic about.  I call shenanigans (I won't use the word I really want to say)

[Irlandesa]

9 hours ago, AshleyN said:

I know it's been mentioned here, but given Oldman's well-publicized criticism of the HFPA in the past, could Chalamet actually win here? If he does, and that's combined with his critics wins then, too young or not, he has to be considered a real threat to win the Oscar, no? I guess SAG would be the real tell, assuming Oldman takes the BAFTA, which seems highly likely.

It sounds like Oldman is playing nice with HFPA.  He had a press conference with them.  He put out a statement today after being nominated that talked about how honored he was...blah blah blah.  I guess time will tell if they'll forget his previous comments but I could see them doing it and awarding him with the win. He's kissing butt so they won the war, I guess?  I read another forum and they seem to think CMBYN underperformed here in that it missed out on director, screenplay and song.  And that in order for Tim to win, CMBYN is going to have to be a stronger Best Pic contender.  In addition, the smaller critics societies came out this weekend and the "Best Actor" winners were all over the place.  But while he's still in a good position to challenge Oldman, it's not quite as strong as it was.

I'm nervous for SAG because there's no guarantee that the people who do the nominating are going to see all the movies they need to see before making their selections and that's where Timothee's relative unknownness and age could be an issue. And given its small cast, it will probably also miss on SAG ensemble which weakens it as a Best Picture contender at the Oscars.

10 hours ago, xaxat said:

How many members actually watched the finished version before putting in their vote?

The Globes are gonna Globe.  I suspect that's why we have The Greatest Showman on Earth nominated when it's not gaining any attention elsewhere.  As for the All The Money In The World nominations, I believe I saw someone on Twitter say they were the HFPA's way of saying thank you for showing it to them first.  It might be terrific but it's interesting that the movie didn't get a Best Picture nomination yet still made director kicking out a woman nominee (Greta G who does have a best pic Comedy nod), a openly gay male (Luca G whose CMBYN is nominated for Best Pic Drama) and a black director (Get Out--also a comedy nominee).  It's hard to know if Ridley's and Plummer's nominations are because of the greatness of the film or just the Globes just taking advantage of the newsiness of the reshoots because with this group, both are very plausible.

[Ms Blue Jay]

8 hours ago, Silver Raven said:

Only if they want to find things to make it problematic about.  I call shenanigans (I won't use the word I really want to say)

Ok.... I'm wondering if you've read any of these critical takes I am talking about?  There's a lot of them.  Just searching "Three Billboards" on Twitter it seems like reaction to this movie is very split.  It's dismissive to say that people not liking a movie are just trying not to when people seem to have takes that seem to be thoroughly written out.  Are the people who like the movie just wanting to find things to like about it too?  It's okay for reactions to a movie to be subjective and varied, especially when people take so much time to explain their viewpoint.

There's a full thread that starts with this tweet here:

And some other summaries:

Edited December 12, 2017 by Ms Blue Jay

[Silver Raven]

But the final scene

Spoiler

 

where she says she hopes her daughter gets raped and murdered (AFTER the daughter yells at her that she's leaving and is going to walk because her mother won't let her take the car, and she'll probably be raped and murdered - the mother didn't bring it up out of thin air) is what drives the ENTIRE story.

And I was thinking that the objections were on racial lines because she uses the N word, not the rape and murder lines, which from my point of view is even MORE ridiculous, since she's guilty about it for the whole rest of the movie and it's what drives her to do what she does.

 

Edited December 13, 2017 by Athena
Added spoiler tag

[absnow54]

The SAG Nominations are in. Wow, this is going to be a really interesting award season. Was The Post not eligible?

[AshleyN]

SAG Nominations

I assume the screeners were sent out too late for The Post? I can't imagine Meryl at least not getting in otherwise. Same with DDL and Phantom Thread.

Also, other than Chalamet, SAG voters really weren't here for Call Me By Your Name, were they? Not only snubbed in ensemble, but neither of its Supporting Actor candidates got in either.

Also worth pointing out, no film has won Best Picture without a SAG ensemble nomination since Braveheart I believe. Most people thought that would end last year with La La Land, but the Moonlight win meant it held up. Not great news for films like Dunkirk and The Shape of Water (assuming The Post did have screener issues, it might not be too big a deal there).

Edited December 13, 2017 by AshleyN

[hendersonrocks]

It's really interesting to see all this love for Three Billboards - I suspect it won't translate to much in terms of awards, but what do I know. (It does seem like that's kind of a huge spoiler three comments above, no? I haven't seen it but...it seems like it would be.) 

I am thrilled The Big Sick wasn't blanked, and am really surprised The Post was.

Edited December 13, 2017 by hendersonrocks

[SeanC]

Just now, absnow54 said:

The SAG Nominations are in. Wow, this is going to be a really interesting award season. Was The Post not eligible?

There were reports of screener issues with that film, as well as with Phantom Thread.  I can't imagine them blanking Meryl if there weren't, honestly.

Hong Chau scores another key precursor.  I'm rooting for her to pull a Ruth Negga and stay in the game even when support for the rest of the film falls away.

[Ms Blue Jay]

20 minutes ago, hendersonrocks said:

It's really interesting to see all this love for Three Billboards - I suspect it won't translate to much in terms of awards, but what do I know. (It does seem like that's kind of a huge spoiler two comments above, no? I haven't seen it but...it seems like it would be.) 

I am thrilled The Big Sick wasn't blanked, and am really surprised The Post was.

Yes, a huge spoiler.

Here's a very, very critical review of Downsizing and Hong's role in particular if anyone is interested

http://www.filmfreakcentral.net/ffc/2017/09/downsizing.html

Edited December 13, 2017 by Ms Blue Jay

[Shannon L.]

I can't comment on the movies because I've only seen a couple (but a number of them are on my "must see" list), but in regards to the SAG tv nominations, Millie Bobbie Brown is a great young actress and I love David Harbour in Stranger Things, but I think Noah Schnapp totally deserved a nomination this year.  He was outstanding. 

[Irlandesa]

I am really bummed about CMBYN's underperformance.   I  was hoping TC could pull the upset but now I'm hoping he doesn't miss.  

Both The Post and Phantom Thread sent their screeners out too late.  Obviously this group also hasn't seen All The Money In The World yet so it'll be interesting to see if those GG nominations hold up.

I'm happy The Big Sick finally showed up.

It is an interesting awards season with many films having their hot moments and cold moments.

[NUguy514]

There were plenty of SAG screenings of Phantom Thread throughout much of November, so while screeners may not have been sent in time, there were lots of opportunities for actors on the nominating committee to see the film.  Apparently, The Post actually did screen heavily for SAG right after Thanksgiving, so I guess there was time for actors on the nominating committee to see it.

I'm really happy for Hong Chau; she was, by far, my favorite part of that film.

Bummed about Stuhlbarg (not so much for Hammer), but Dafoe is steamrolling that category anyway.  I'll almost definitely be voting for Chalamet.

[Silver Raven]

I'm sorry about the spoiler, I thought we didn't need spoiler tags on films that have been out for a while.

[Irlandesa]

1 hour ago, Silver Raven said:

I'm sorry about the spoiler, I thought we didn't need spoiler tags on films that have been out for a while.

Here's a link to the spoiler specifics for the movie forum. What you posted is perfectly appropriate for the Three Billboards thread but it's best to avoid posting big spoilers out of it unless you use spoiler tags.

2 hours ago, NUguy514 said:

There were plenty of SAG screenings of Phantom Thread throughout much of November, so while screeners may not have been sent in time, there were lots of opportunities for actors on the nominating committee to see the film. 

But aren't we kind of lazy now?  Isn't it much easier to watch something at home than go to a theater to see it?  I don't know how it works.  Are they required to attend screenings?

[JBC344]

13 minutes ago, Irlandesa said:

Here's a link to the spoiler specifics for the movie forum. What you posted is perfectly appropriate for the Three Billboards thread but it's best to avoid posting big spoilers out of it unless you use spoiler tags.

But aren't we kind of lazy now?  Isn't it much easier to watch something at home than go to a theater to see it?  I don't know how it works.  Are they required to attend screenings?

It is easier to wait for a screener, but if your a voting member it seems pretty goush (?) to hope you get sent a screener as opposed to actually going to the theater that is in your city to see it. 

For example, waiting for a screener for All the money makes sense since the movie just finished filming, but if your a voting member I wouldn't of waited for a screener for Call me by your name. It's been available for weeks in the voting markets. 

[AimingforYoko]

35 minutes ago, JBC344 said:

goush (?)

Gauche.

Figured McDormand and Rockwell would get noms for Three Billboards, but a little surprised Harrelson got one. He gave a fine performance, don't get me wrong, it was just far more subdued than the other two.

Also a little surprised Denzel got a nom, his performance and the movie have been pretty widely panned.

[Ms Blue Jay]

Another thread about hating Three Billboards

[Dejana]

4 hours ago, JBC344 said:

It is easier to wait for a screener, but if your a voting member it seems pretty goush (?) to hope you get sent a screener as opposed to actually going to the theater that is in your city to see it. 

For example, waiting for a screener for All the money makes sense since the movie just finished filming, but if your a voting member I wouldn't of waited for a screener for Call me by your name. It's been available for weeks in the voting markets. 

I think some (many?) voters get spoiled about screeners, view being on the list to get them as a perk/sign of being Very Important and probably see going out to movie theaters as a monumental chore. Some people will be busy and others are just entitled but there does seem to be a correlation with late/no screeners for a movie and a weak showing at SAG.

[Irlandesa]

2 hours ago, Dejana said:

I think some (many?) voters get spoiled about screeners, view being on the list to get them as a perk/sign of being Very Important and probably see going out to movie theaters as a monumental chore. Some people will be busy and others are just entitled but there does seem to be a correlation with late/no screeners for a movie and a weak showing at SAG.

I also find it interesting that three of the five ensemble nominees are very easily available in home.  Mudbound is obviously on Netflix and has been there during the nomination period.  Get Out has been on HBO, HBO On Demand and HBO Now (maybe?) for a while.  And The Big Sick is free to stream on Amazon Prime. (And I don't know for sure but I bet Amazon and Netflix can give temporary Prime/Netflix accounts or a special redemption codes to those on the nominating committees in lieu of sending a DVD. 

And in the case of Mudbound and Get Out, it led to another acting nomination. 

I think that will be curious to watch going forward. 

[SeanC]

VFX Oscar shortlist:

Quote

Alien: Covenant

Blade Runner 2049

Dunkirk

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2

Kong: Skull Island

Okja

The Shape of Water

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets

War for the Planet of the Apes

Edited December 18, 2017 by SeanC

[Dejana]

The reviews for All the Money in the World are pretty respectable overall. I think Christopher Plummer will happen at the Oscars whether it's a hit or flop, and Ridley Scott/Michelle Williams will if it's a hit. Best Actress could use more competition! :)

At this point, I wouldn't be stunned by a Nolan snub. The guilds and televised awards are often a different story, but for a movie with its Metacritic score (and all those 100s!), he and Dunkirk haven't had the strongest showing with the critics' groups so far.

Edited December 21, 2017 by Dejana

[SallyAlbright]

I am so torn between Margot Robbie and Saoirse Ronan already, and now if Michelle Williams is really that good I will be even more split. Robbie was a revelation, and the other two are so talented and in my opinion, overdue. 

[AshleyN]

21 hours ago, Dejana said:

At this point, I wouldn't be stunned by a Nolan snub. The guilds and televised awards are often a different story, but for a movie with its Metacritic score (and all those 100s!), he and Dunkirk haven't had the strongest showing with the critics' groups so far.

With six really strong contenders for Director (Nolan, del Toro, Gerwig, Peele, McDonagh, and Spielberg) I think we're pretty much guaranteed a major snub somewhere. I can see it being any of them tbh. Plus, you have at least two potential spoilers in Luca Guadagnino and Sean Baker, who each seem like they could be the type of passion pick the directors branch sometimes goes for. Baker in particular stands out for me, since that group seems to really respect directors who get great work out of children -- two of the big surprise nominees there in recent years were Benh Zeitlen for Beasts of the Southern Wild and Lenny Abrahamson for Room. And I haven't even mentioned six-time Oscar nominee* Paul Thomas Anderson yet, whose film is a late-arrival but is getting big fat raves so far.

As for who's going to win:  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. When was the last time there was a race this fractured this late in the game? Even when the result isn't certain, we're usually down to no more than two or three contenders at this point, aren't we?

*Albeit, most of those were for writing.

Edited December 22, 2017 by AshleyN

[JustaPerson]

I think Dunkirk will clean up in the technical aspects (Score, Editing, etc.). The only creative nom I think of for it would be director or picture

[SeanC]

I forgot to post this earlier.  The seven finalists for Best Makeup and Hairstyling are:

Quote

Bright
Darkest Hour
Ghost in the Shell
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
I, Tonya
Victoria & Abdul
Wonder

Will a critically mauled David Ayer film win for a second year in a row?

I'm guessing it'll be Darkest Hour, Wonder, and Guardians 2.

I've never understood why this category only has three nominees when it's for something that every non-animated film has.

[Shannon L.]

I just saw The Darkest Hour and didn't think I could be more impressed with a performance than I was with Gary Oldman.  He was outstanding. 

[sweetcookieface]

For those of you who've seen a number of the likely Oscar contenders, I'm curious which ones you liked best, which ones left you underwhelmed, etc?

I've been on a bit of movie-watching binge, so have seen most of the lead contenders: Dunkirk, Call Me By Your Name, Shape of Water, Three Billboards, Lady Bird, Get Out, Mudbound, Big Sick, I Tonya... maybe more. The Post is probably the biggest contender I have yet to see, but there's also Darkest Hour, Phantom Thread, The Disaster Artist, and The Florida Project. (I don't really have any interest in seeing Darkest Hour, but am hoping to see the others in the next couple of months.)

My favorite film - the one that I felt most emotionally invested in and that stayed with me for weeks - is Call Me By Your Name. Just a visually beautiful, emotionally rich film. A notch below that for me are probably Get Out, Shape of Water, and Dunkirk. I enjoyed Lady Bird, but felt slightly underwhelmed by it (maybe the 100% rating on Rotten Tomatoes led to unrealistically high expectations). And I was also disappointed by Mudbound, but I saw it on a dark TV screen when I was half asleep, so I feel like I should revisit it.

How do others feel? It really does seem like there's no real consensus this year.

[Silver Raven]

On 12/21/2017 at 4:29 PM, JustaPerson said:

I think Dunkirk will clean up in the technical aspects (Score, Editing, etc.). The only creative nom I think of for it would be director or picture

Mark Rylance for Best Supporting, please?

[NUguy514]

9 hours ago, sweetcookieface said:

For those of you who've seen a number of the likely Oscar contenders, I'm curious which ones you liked best, which ones left you underwhelmed, etc?

I've been on a bit of movie-watching binge, so have seen most of the lead contenders: Dunkirk, Call Me By Your Name, Shape of Water, Three Billboards, Lady Bird, Get Out, Mudbound, Big Sick, I Tonya... maybe more. The Post is probably the biggest contender I have yet to see, but there's also Darkest Hour, Phantom Thread, The Disaster Artist, and The Florida Project. (I don't really have any interest in seeing Darkest Hour, but am hoping to see the others in the next couple of months.)

My favorite film - the one that I felt most emotionally invested in and that stayed with me for weeks - is Call Me By Your Name. Just a visually beautiful, emotionally rich film. A notch below that for me are probably Get Out, Shape of Water, and Dunkirk. I enjoyed Lady Bird, but felt slightly underwhelmed by it (maybe the 100% rating on Rotten Tomatoes led to unrealistically high expectations). And I was also disappointed by Mudbound, but I saw it on a dark TV screen when I was half asleep, so I feel like I should revisit it.

How do others feel? It really does seem like there's no real consensus this year.

I'm a SAG member (don't worry, you would've seen me in exactly nothing), and I just finished watching all of the nominated films yesterday and have seen pretty much all the contenders except for Phantom Thread and The Post, both of which I will only see if they're nominated in major Oscar categories and if I can find someone else's screener to borrow.  My favorite films of the year have been The Shape of Water and Lady Bird, and I also loved Get Out and I, Tonya.  I loved a lot about Call Me by Your Name (most of the acting is truly phenomenal), although I have an issue with a few of the writing/directing choices (I may not have had those issues had I not read the book, to be fair), which keeps it from the very top of my list.  I surprised myself by enjoying The Disaster Artist quite a bit (I don't give two craps about The Room and usually find Franco insufferable), although Dave Franco was completely miscast.  I thought Mudbound was boring and rather pointless, didn't like Dunkirk at all, and was intensely angered by Three Billboards... (seriously, fuck that movie, even though I liked a lot of the acting).  I liked most of the acting in The Big Sick (I didn't like Nanjiani, though), although I've read a few eloquent, incisive criticisms of it and its one-dimensional portrayals of Kumail's family that have given me pause.  I loved Hong Chau a lot more than the rest of Downsizing, and I thought Judi Dench was typically delightful in Victoria & Abdul (even if the rest of the film wasn't up to her level); similarly, Gary Oldman was really good in Darkest Hour (as were Kristin Scott-Thomas and Lily James), even if the film was something we've all seen a hundred times before (and often better).  After watching The Florida Project, which I found pretty tedious and pointless, I am completely confused by Willem Dafoe's mini-sweep of the critics' awards; he just doesn't really do anything in the film...like, he's fine, but really?  I had a great time watching Battle of the Sexes (and I'd be fine swapping Dench, as lovely as she was, out for Emma Stone) and would tell anyone who'd listen to skip Roman J. Israel, Esq. altogether.

I'm still trying to figure out for whom I will vote, but there were many great performances this year, especially by women.

[sweetcookieface]

NUGuy514 - thanks for sharing your thoughts. I've always loved Entertainment Weekly's annual feature where they ask a handful of Academy members (a mix of writers, actors, directors, etc.) to anonymously share who they're voting for, and your take reminds me of that. :) A couple of reactions:

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I loved a lot about Call Me by Your Name (most of the acting is truly phenomenal), although I have an issue with a few of the writing/directing choices (I may not have had those issues had I not read the book, to be fair), which keeps it from the very top of my list. 

I'd be curious to hear more about that - maybe in the CMBYN thread if you're so inclined?

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I also loved Get Out and I, Tonya. 

Yeah, I, Tonya is the most recent film I saw and I was very pleasantly surprised. It feels a bit wrong to describe a film like that as "fun," but it really captured my attention.

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and was intensely angered by Three Billboards... (seriously, fuck that movie, even though I liked a lot of the acting). 

I had some mild misgivings about some aspects of the film (e.g., treatment of race), but I admit it wasn't until I read some thoughtful think pieces that I really began to think about the film more critically (not just issues with race, but domestic violence, etc.).

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I liked most of the acting in The Big Sick (I didn't like Nanjiani, though), although I've read a few eloquent, incisive criticisms of it and its one-dimensional portrayals of Kumail's family that have given me pause. 

The stuff with the parents - which felt very Big Fat Greek Wedding to me (i.e., lots of caricatures and unoriginal immigrant jokes) - is what kept me from loving this movie when I first saw it a few months ago. That said, it's grown on me with time, although I still wouldn't put it in the same category as a number of other films I've seen this year.

[Irlandesa]

50 minutes ago, sweetcookieface said:

NUGuy514 - thanks for sharing your thoughts. I've always loved Entertainment Weekly's annual feature where they ask a handful of Academy members (a mix of writers, actors, directors, etc.) to anonymously share who they're voting for, and your take reminds me of that. :) A couple of reactions:

Those usually anger me--maybe it's because I only read them when stupid shit voters say starts to go viral.  And when I say stupid, I do mean stupid--not just a difference of opinion of quality.

[NUguy514]

8 hours ago, sweetcookieface said:

I'd be curious to hear more about that - maybe in the CMBYN thread if you're so inclined?

You bet!

Spoiler

I should also probably preface this by saying that I'm gay, so I'm going to be more sensitive to how this particular love story is portrayed.

My main issues revolve around the treatment of the sex between Elio and Oliver.  The book is more explicit in describing the sex between the two: Oliver fucks Elio, Elio fucks Oliver (that certainly wasn't in the movie), and it's sensual and erotic – aspects that could've been in the movie, but I found them missing because what we were shown was mostly so...clothed between them.  James Ivory's initial script was more explicit, and Luca Guadagnino took basically all of the sex between the two out of the script.  Chalamet and Hammer had no-nudity clauses in their contracts, but I will never be convinced that Guadagnino didn't wuss out/maybe want a better shot at awards and wanted to make the movie, in his mind, more palatable to heterosexual audiences.  I have no doubt that the sex would've been more explicit had Elio been a girl; in fact, the sex between Elio and Marzia was more explicit in the film.  Hell, Brokeback Mountain was more explicit, and that movie was a big success, so it's not like it's unprecedented; this film didn't need to treat the sex between them so elliptically.  The gentle pan away from Oliver and Elio when they finally start to undress and get it on annoyed me.  Also, the peach scene: in the book, Oliver eats the peach, and it is, in my opinion, an essential component in understanding what's going on between the two of them – the literal hunger for each other.  Oliver's not eating the peach in the movie kind of infuriated me; again, I find it to be a cowardly choice by Guadagnino and a perfect example of his attempt to avoid freaking the straights out without giving them the opportunity not to freak out.  Since I'd read the book and knew how the book detailed their sex, I was really put off by how neutered I found the movie to be in that regard, and I may not have felt so strongly had I not read the book.  I didn't need to see them naked and banging each other, but horizontal shirtlessness is not asking too much, in my opinion.

Along those lines and get ready for my rant, I'm also just over how afraid everyone in Hollywood is of 1) making a gay/bi love story (especially between two men), 2) making a gay/bi love story where sex between the gay/bi characters is portrayed the same way as it is in straight love stories (by the way, the book makes it pretty clear – to me at least – that both Elio and Oliver are bisexual), and 3) casting gay/bi actors in gay/bi love stories.  As to that last point, there have been some truly incredible performances by straight-identified actors in LGBT roles – Timothée Chalamet here and Heath Ledger and Jake Gyllenhaal in Brokeback Mountain, to name a few – but casting straight actors in these roles blocks openly LGBT actors from the opportunity to play those characters when they are often blacklisted from being cast in straight roles specifically because they are out.  The fear that straight audiences won't buy gay actors in straight roles is very real in Hollywood and never works in reverse because the perception is that it's less icky to straight audiences (read: straight men) to see two gay male characters (it's always the gay male characters) kiss or hold hands or (very rarely and usually implicitly) fuck if the audience knows the male actors wouldn't actually want to fuck each other; I find it insulting to the very many straight men who wouldn't care one way or another, for what it's worth.  And that's to say nothing of the very particular life experiences LGBT actors could bring to those roles that, frankly, straight actors really, really can't (if you've never had to live in the world as a non-heterosexual, you really can't know what it's like on a cellular level).  When white actors are cast in non-white roles, there is deservedly a huge outcry because what the fuck?  There is never the same outcry when straight actors are cast in LGBT roles because sexuality isn't something you can see like skin color (and it's certainly not something you can explicitly ask an actor about during casting); however, it's just as elemental to how you're shaped as a person.  I'd like to see the particular life experiences LGBT actors can bring to the table acknowledged and valued by the people in charge of casting projects.  I know that part of the problem is that everyone wants a "name" for his/her film and almost no film actors are actually out (in many cases because their agents, managers, etc. basically force them to stay closeted with threats of never working again if they do come out); it ends up being a self-perpetuating cycle, and it sucks.

That was much longer than I intended; sorry about that!  I also want to emphasize that, despite my issues, I really did like the film enormously.

Edited December 29, 2017 by NUguy514

[SallyAlbright]

Here is the latest set of predictions by THR. These get updated weekly, but what surprises me most is Get Out has moved to the top of their Best Picture prediction and Margot Robbie has been in the lead for Best Actress for weeks now. Would love if that one came true, though I am equally enthusiastic about Saoirse Ronan. 

[scarynikki12]

1 hour ago, SallyAlbright said:

Here is the latest set of predictions by THR. These get updated weekly, but what surprises me most is Get Out has moved to the top of their Best Picture prediction and Margot Robbie has been in the lead for Best Actress for weeks now. Would love if that one came true, though I am equally enthusiastic about Saoirse Ronan. 

Oh please, oh please, OH PLEASE!!! 

That reminds me, @Shannon L. it's Oscar season and I need to use your powers again.  Have you seen Get Out?

[Shannon L.]

5 hours ago, scarynikki12 said:

Oh please, oh please, OH PLEASE!!! 

That reminds me, @Shannon L. it's Oscar season and I need to use your powers again.  Have you seen Get Out?

Lol! Unfortunately (unfortunate for you, but not for me because I really liked it!)  yes. But predicting wins based on my viewing habits won't be quite as accurate this year as there are a few movies that I have no interest in seeing. 

[scarynikki12]

Ok, then I shall hope that your powers invert themselves and give it the win (watch it not get a single nomination now).

[ruby24]

I think Get Out can win, especially with this preferential ballot. I think this will be another year with a split director/picture.

My favorite movie of the year has been The Florida Project, followed by Mudbound, Lady Macbeth, Get Out and The Shape of Water. I still have some more to see though. I didn't like Dunkirk or Three Billboards, and I thought Lady Bird was good, but really just a fine coming-of-age comedy. I didn't see anything brilliant about it at all. Reminded me of Juno (which I liked more back then).

Still have to see Darkest Hour, The Post, Call Me By Your Name, I, Tonya and Phantom Thread.

[Shannon L.]

We watched Kong: Skull Island again last night and I can't believe it's considered a "major threat" for special effects by THR instead of being in the top 5.  Even on the small screen (although, admittedly, we have an excellent flat screen tv) the special effects are fantastic.