2017 Awards Season

[starri]

Good for her.

[vibeology]

The sad thing is her career will suffer more for speaking out than Casey's ever will for sexually harassing and assaulting his employees. But good for her. I'll continue to stan because she's completely right. 

[katha]

Must they nominate Streep for everything? At this point this has become a running joke. I understand the respect for her and her sheer awe-inspiring technical command, but not every one of her performances is awards worthy. Just...calm down.

[hendersonrocks]

Quote

Must they nominate Streep for everything? At this point this has become a running joke. I understand the respect for her and her sheer awe-inspiring technical command, but not every one of her performances is awards worthy. Just...calm down.

Interesting to contrast with Tom Hanks, who it seems like they can't get excited about anymore even when he does have a legitimately good performance. (I'd like to figure out a way to nominate him for all the awards for Black Jeopardy & David S. Pumpkins alone.)

[Ms Blue Jay]

How does Arrival not get a nomination for Visual Effects?  Can somebody smarter than me explain this?

Arrival was my favourite this year, but Amy Adams' performance didn't do much for me.  I nominate the film's Visual Effects for Best Actor.

My question mark is Viggo Mortensen and now I want to see that movie.

Tom Hanks for Sully, Amy Adams for Arrival, and I think one other error was reported on ABC's website originally instead of the correct nominations.  Can somebody explain how that could have happened, because I found that extremely weird that it possibly could.

Social media was so worried that Emily Blunt would knock out Amy Adams but meh.  I still prefer Emily's performance, personally.  

I'm extremely happy with most of the nominations.  But to try to see the angle that La La Land is an event on par with Titanic is so so funny to me.

Edited January 26, 2017 by Ms Blue Jay

[Silver Raven]

538 has started tracking Oscars.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/oscar-predictions-2017/?ex_cid=SigDig

[Silver Raven]

If OJ: Made in America is 7 1/2 hours long, where was it shown in theaters?  If it wasn't shown in theaters, it would not qualify for the Oscars.

[kiddo82]

I think it debuted at the Tribeca Film Festival or was just screened for an evening in NYC.  Something like that.

Edited January 26, 2017 by kiddo82

[scarynikki12]

It also was in a few theaters.  From what I've read the filmmakers didn't expect it to do any business (though some did go see it). They just wanted it to qualify for the Oscar, so it was out for a week and then they focused on getting viewers when it was on tv. 

[sum]

From its Wikipedia page

Quote

O.J.: Made in America premiered at the Sundance Film Festival on January 22, 2016, and was also screened at the Tribeca Film Festival on April 23, 2016, and the Hot Docs Canadian International Documentary Festival in Toronto on April 29 and 30. The documentary had a theatrical run at Cinema Village in New York City and the Laemmle Theatre in Santa Monica, California from May 20–26, 2016. The first part debuted on television on June 11, 2016 on ABC, followed by parts two through five airing on ESPN on June 14, 15, 17 and 18, respectively.

Now come to think of it, the theater preview was probably one of reasons why there was so much (favorable) buzz about this documentary weeks before the TV premiere. While it's normal that TV critics receive 'screeners' in advance for their reviews I thought it was unusual that they seemed to have watched the whole series rather than customary first a couple.

Edited January 26, 2017 by sum

[methodwriter85]

20 hours ago, katha said:

Must they nominate Streep for everything? At this point this has become a running joke. I understand the respect for her and her sheer awe-inspiring technical command, but not every one of her performances is awards worthy. Just...calm down.

Florence Foster Jenkins was a fun concoction, but yes, it really wasn't a high-caliber performance.

I will laugh my ass off though if she manages to pull out the upset win and take it away from the ingenue everyone thought would get it, like when Michelle Williams lost for My Weekend With Marilyn to her.

[SeanC]

13 hours ago, methodwriter85 said:

I will laugh my ass off though if she manages to pull out the upset win and take it away from the ingenue everyone thought would get it, like when Michelle Williams lost for My Weekend With Marilyn to her.

I don't recall Michelle Williams being expected to win.  Viola Davis was widely tipped as the frontrunner at that point, since she'd won SAG (having lost the Globe to Streep, them both being in the Drama category; Williams won the Comedy Globe, which is kind of a dubious categorization, looking back on it).

[caracas1914]

I'm more bummed and surprised that Annette Benning (who is in one of the Academy's boards) didn't get in if Amy Adams  didn't since she got some solid reviews for "20th Century women".  Annette has multiple noms in the past so even in a limited  release film she would get noticed.

TBH, I don't recall all that much critical buzz for Ryan Gosling's acting in LALA land but it just seems it was the juggernaut/tsunami effect for the film I guess.  Though it makes even more ironic that it didn't get a SAG acting ensemble nomination when both it's  Leads now got Academy noms.

Thrilled for Viggo Mortensen in "Captain Fantastic " because I thought he was very good in that role and it was a nom that could have easily gone to a more mainstream movie's  actor (aka Tom Hanks in "Sully" among others).

Michael Shannon I always thought had the more subtle, layered  role over  Aaron Taylor Johnson's ruffian redneck in  "Nocturnal Animals" ; so I'm also pleased with that "upset".

Edited January 26, 2017 by caracas1914

[Silver Raven]

I have always been blown away by Michael Shannon's acting (Watch Bug), so I'm happy to see his nom.

I can see why SAG didn't think La La Land was ensemble worthy, since it was pretty much a two-person affair (plus Keith, I guess).

[kiddo82]

18 hours ago, sum said:

From its Wikipedia page

Now come to think of it, the theater preview was probably one of reasons why there was so much (favorable) buzz about this documentary weeks before the TV premiere. While it's normal that TV critics receive 'screeners' in advance for their reviews I thought it was unusual that they seemed to have watched the whole series rather than customary first a couple.

I was so ready to feel neutral about it do to all the buzz.  I watch a lot of ESPN and the talking heads kept slobbering all over themselves while praising it.  I figured they all were just talking up a project for their network.  I couldn't have been more wrong.  It's one of the few things really worthy of the hype.  

[methodwriter85]

Whoops. I totally forgot it was Viola Davis that was the odds-on favorite for that year.

[sum]

5 hours ago, kiddo82 said:

I was so ready to feel neutral about it do to all the buzz.  I watch a lot of ESPN and the talking heads kept slobbering all over themselves while praising it.  I figured they all were just talking up a project for their network.  I couldn't have been more wrong.  It's one of the few things really worthy of the hype.  

Just to make it clear, the intention of my previous post wasn't to say that the buzz wasn't justified. In fact I absolutely agree with your last point. I loved the dramatized FX series, so the bar was set very high for the documentary. It exceeded it easily and I couldn't stop recommending it to my friends for a while. I'm glad it's been in the front runner position of the category.

5 hours ago, Silver Raven said:

I have always been blown away by Michael Shannon's acting (Watch Bug), so I'm happy to see his nom.

I can see why SAG didn't think La La Land was ensemble worthy, since it was pretty much a two-person affair (plus Keith, I guess).

Yeah, this was discussed a lot right after the SAG nominees announcement and I still think with both leads getting recognized in their respective categories, an ensemble nomination on top of that would have been redundant.

Edited January 27, 2017 by sum

[kiddo82]

I'm sorry, sum, I didn't mean to imply you were saying OJ: Made in America was overhyped.  Your original post just reminded me of my own experience and would be biases based on the reviews I had heard.

[SeanC]

The Editors' guild awards were handed down, with the film winners being:

Quote

BEST EDITED FEATURE FILM (DRAMATIC):  Arrival – Joe Walker, ACE

BEST EDITED FEATURE FILM (COMEDY):  La La Land – Tom Cross, ACE

BEST EDITED ANIMATED FEATURE FILM:  Zootopia – Fabienne Rawley & Jeremy Milton

BEST EDITED DOCUMENTARY (FEATURE):  O.J.: Made in America – Bret Granato, Maya Mumma & Ben Sozanski

In other news, potentially a bomb being thrown into the foreign language film race, as it's being reported that Asghar Farhadi (The Salesman) will, as a result of Herr Donald's new travel ban, be unable to attend the Academy Awards.  If this is true, I think we've got a new rallying point for Academy voters looking to give the new administration the middle finger.

Edited January 28, 2017 by SeanC

[AimingforYoko]

2 hours ago, SeanC said:

 If this is true, I think we've got a new rallying point for Academy voters looking to give the new administration the middle finger.

FTFY.

[Silver Raven]

I thought Jackie was boring as hell, and Natalie Portman's performance was self-indulgent twaddle.

[thuganomics85]

La La Land takes the PGA.  A lot of winners here end up winning the big one, but it is worth noting that last year was different with The Big Short winning, only for Spotlight to win the Oscar.  Still, this is clearly a good thing for its momentum.

Also, Zootopia won animated feature, so I have to think the Oscar is set for it.  Sorry, Moana and Kubo & the Two Strings!

Edited January 29, 2017 by thuganomics85

[hendersonrocks]

Quote

I thought Jackie was boring as hell, and Natalie Portman's performance was self-indulgent twaddle.

I haven't seen it, and have no interest in doing so, for exactly these reasons. The previews alone made my skin crawl.

With all that's happening in the world, I'm excited for an awards show full of pretty gowns and stick-it-to-the-man speeches. Don't let me down, SAG.

[Silver Raven]

Asghar Farhadi, writer/director of the Best Foreign Language nominee The Salesman, and winner for A Separation, will not be allowed to enter the country to accept the award should he win, because he's Iranian.

[starri]

Miss Viola Davis has locked up a SAG Award, and with that, I assume, an Oscar.

[raezen]

I have a feeling Mahershala Ali has the Oscar now as well. It's funny because I am set to see Moonlight this week.

[SeanC]

In terms of impact on the race:

Supporting Actress - Davis has this locked up now, which already seemed to be the case.

Supporting Actor - I had earlier expressed some reservations about Ali's frontrunner status given the size of his part and relatively low level of fame, but winning with such a wide membership is a strong showing, so I'd say he's on course.

Actress - Stone finally makes her move.  I can't imagine Portman winning now; Huppert will be discussed as a wildcard, but I'd be stunned if a performance from a movie like Elle was able to gather a plurality of the Academy membership behind it (which is not a judgement on the film, by any means, it's just very outre by their standards).

Actor - the big surprise of the night, Denzel makes a very late play against what seemed to be an unassailable frontrunner.  People will debate right up to Oscar night whether this has something to do with Washington never having won a SAG Award before, but we shall see.  Also, this'll probably start up people talking about 3 of the 4 acting winners for the Oscars being black, which would be a new record, and can only help Denzel's case.

Picture - not formally on the ballot, of course, but Moonlight not being able to win Ensemble even when La La Land wasn't there is pretty bad sign for any lingering hope it could win Best Picture.

Edited January 30, 2017 by SeanC

[thuganomics85]

Yep, I think Viola Davis and Mahershala Ali are locks (his Globe lost must have just been the Golden Globes being their normal weird selves), and Emma Stone has become the frontrunner for Actress, with Natalie Portman likely out of contention, and Isabelle Huppert possibly a wildcard.  Best Actor though has gotten interesting.  Denzel Washington over Casey Affleck?  I wonder if Casey is finally getting some backlash for the sexual harassment claims, or is it simply Denzel building up momentum at the right time?

Hidden Figures beating out Moonlight and Manchester by the Sea has dealt a likely deathblow to those two winning Best Picture.  I'm guessing this will give Hidden Figures a boost, but I really think La La Land will be dancing off with the Best Picture trophy come Oscar time.

[kiddo82]

52 minutes ago, SeanC said:

In terms of impact on the race:

Supporting Actress - Davis has this locked up now, which already seemed to be the case.

The Oscars should be no more than a much deserved victory lap for Viola Davis now but in a different year I'd love to have seen Michelle Williams picking up some awards for Manchester By the Sea.  All it took was that fifteen secon clip of her and my heart was aching all over again.

And while many races seem to be falling into place, suddenly best actor got a lot more interesting.  

Edited January 30, 2017 by kiddo82

[SeanC]

Also, for SAG trivia buffs, Mahershala Ali won the Ensemble award for one film (Hidden Figures) and an individual acting award for another (Moonlight).  That has only happened once before (and with the same two categories, in fact), in 2000, when Albert Finney won the Ensemble award for Traffic and Best Supporting Actor for Erin Brockovich.

Edited January 30, 2017 by SeanC

[scarynikki12]

I still think La La Land will win BUT I don't think any of us should fill out our ballots until the DGA winners are announced. If Hidden Figures wins there then Best Picture becomes a genuine race.

For the acting awards I think we can feel comfortable picking Emma, Viola and Mahershala but I'd say it's 50/50 on Casey/Denzel. I'm picking Denzel personally but I honestly don't know who will win. 

[SeanC]

3 minutes ago, scarynikki12 said:

I still think La La Land will win BUT I don't think any of us should fill out our ballots until the DGA winners are announced. If Hidden Figures wins there then Best Picture becomes a genuine race.

Hidden Figures isn't nominated for the DGA, and it has only three Oscar nominations, including no director or editing nominations and zero below the line support.

[scarynikki12]

Dammit! There goes my theory. 

Thinks.....

Ok if La La Land doesn't win DGA then I say we all flip a coin.

[vb68]

I think Hidden Figures may (key word) be peaking at the right time.  Everyone who sees it sure seems to love it while simultaneously recognizes that it's a very important story.  Now whether it's really a contender, I don't know. But I've seen less compelling arguments than that combination result in wins.  And I thought Taraji's  beautiful and inspiring speech will probably only help, as well.  Acknowledging John Glenn was very sweet and rather lovely, but I also thought it was a master stroke in strategy without seeming like it.

I wonder if  the past stories have finally caught up with Casey Affleck?   Who knows, but that could end up being a bigger factor now that he's less of a sure thing.

[starri]

At this point, I wouldn't be surprised if Moonlight wins the DGA.  Which would mean the actors, producers, and directors each broke for different movies.  I still think La-La Land has the Circle Jerk advantage, but something else winning wouldn't be an upset at this point.

One of the things that I've found encouraging is that there's very little chatter online about this year's nominees being a reaction to #OscarsSoWhite.  It just turns out that 2016 had a lot of really good roles for people of color.

[raezen]

I think the politics in the present kind of take priority over last years issues as well.

[absnow54]

I think the Best Actress race has officially dwindled down to Stone and Huppert. Stone seems to have the edge and has been campaigning hard, but I just don't think the role is deserving of such an accolade. Emma played the character well, but the character lacked depth due to poor writing. I still think Huppert could take it. 

Best Actor definitely got more interesting. The SAG has correctly picked Best Actor the last 12 years (the Golden Globes has only gotten it wrong once in that same amount of time.) 

[Ms Blue Jay]

I'm so fucking happy about Denzel winning that award!  I was happy with a lot of the wins last night, but the TV wins were really confusing.  Bryan Cranston instead of Riz, Courtney, or Sterling?  For goodness sake.

Fences was great, so moving.  Denzel did a great job, but he's obviously one of the best actors there is.  I'm just so happy he actually got that award and did such a great performance for it.  

Emma Stone was my fourth favourite performance in that category and of course she wins....

Edited January 30, 2017 by Ms Blue Jay

[Qoass]

I'm sure someone will point out who got left out any second now but I thought the In Memoriam segment was lovely.  SAG always includes those "Hey, It's That Guy" individuals that often get overlooked elsewhere.

[absnow54]

1 hour ago, Ms Blue Jay said:

TV wins were really confusing.  Bryan Cranston instead of Riz, Courtney, or Sterling?  For goodness sake.

Since they didn't have a supporting category for limited series, I think Courtney/Sterling and Riz/John split the vote in Cranston's favor. 

[Princess Sparkle]

1 hour ago, Ms Blue Jay said:

I'm so fucking happy about Denzel winning that award!  I was happy with a lot of the wins last night, but the TV wins were really confusing.  Bryan Cranston instead of Riz, Courtney, or Sterling?  For goodness sake.

Fences was great, so moving.  Denzel did a great job, but he's obviously one of the best actors there is.  I'm just so happy he actually got that award and did such a great performance for it.  

Emma Stone was my fourth favourite performance in that category and of course she wins....

I actually wonder if in that category, the fact that two actors from the same show competing against each other ended up cancelling each other out.  So, Courtney/Sterling split the People vs OJ vote, and Riz/John Tutturro split The Night Of vote, and then Bryan Cranston is the man left standing.

I was shocked Denzel took the Best Actor statue home, but I'm definitely not mad about it.  I thought Ryan Gosling would be the man to benefit if the Casey Affleck support dwindled, but I guess not.  

I would love if Hidden Figures was somehow able to ride this momentum out and take Best Picture, though I do realize it's a bit of an uphill battle.  But it was such a great film and I would love for it to get some Academy recognition.    

[scarynikki12]

I think that Courtney/Sterling split the vote for sure.  Unlike with the Globes, there's a lot of voter overlap between SAG and Emmys and we already saw them win the latter.  The difference is that they won at the Emmys for Lead and Supporting while there was no such distinction here.  If there was I think they'd have repeated as winners. 

I was thinking some more and I can't decide if I want La La to win at the DGA.  On the one hand, a win would put a stamp on the Best Picture race and make my ballot picks more secure but a loss would make it a genuinely exciting Oscar night.  I think I'm going to go back and forth on this one right up until they read the winner. 

[vibeology]

8 hours ago, vb68 said:

I wonder if  the past stories have finally caught up with Casey Affleck?   Who knows, but that could end up being a bigger factor now that he's less of a sure thing.

I would hope so, but I get the sense the fact that Denzel hasn't won a SAG before now was probably a bigger factor. (And can we talk about that. How has Denzel never won a SAG before? What is that?)

And who do you think was happier to see Denzel win, Denzel himself or Brie Larson? What a difference an award show makes.

4 hours ago, starri said:

At this point, I wouldn't be surprised if Moonlight wins the DGA.  Which would mean the actors, producers, and directors each broke for different movies.  I still think La-La Land has the Circle Jerk advantage, but something else winning wouldn't be an upset at this point.

When Emma talked last night about her winning an Acting award voted on by actors as an actor, playing an actor I almost got the sense she was in on the joke. That role is relatable to that room of people and so is the film but I do hope to see the DGA step back from the self-congratulations and give Jenkins and Moonlight its due. Actors make up the bulk of the Academy so I do think La La Land has the Oscar locked up at this point.

[starri]

35 minutes ago, vibeology said:

Actors make up the bulk of the Academy so I do think La La Land has the Oscar locked up at this point.

The way I see it, Best Ensemble is SAG's version of Best Picture, judging the movie as a gestalt.  Not only did they choose to award Hidden Figures, they didn't even nominate La-La Land.  I still think La-La Land is most likely to win, but should the DGA go with Jenkins, that's a split.

And since I'm almost sure the WGA will give Moonlight Best Original (why is it in that category?) and Hidden Figures is probably most likely to win Best Adapted, we got a race.

[SeanC]

47 minutes ago, vibeology said:

(And can we talk about that. How has Denzel never won a SAG before? What is that?)

The SAG Awards only began in 1994, so his first Oscar win for Glory and his almost-Oscar-win for Malcolm X both predate it (as well as his first nomination, for Cry Freedom).  Since the SAGs started, his three Oscar nominations (prior to the current one) were for The Hurricane, Training Day (his second Oscar win), and Flight.  In the case of Training Day, the SAG went to Russell Crowe for A Beautiful Mind, and Crowe was the favourite that year until he ruined his candidacy by getting into a screaming fight with a producer at the BAFTAs, which happened after the SAG was handed out.

1 minute ago, starri said:

The way I see it, Best Ensemble is SAG's version of Best Picture, judging the movie as a gestalt.  Not only did they choose to award Hidden Figures, they didn't even nominate La-La Land.  I still think La-La Land is most likely to win, but should the DGA go with Jenkins, that's a split.

And since I'm almost sure the WGA will give Moonlight Best Original (why is it in that category?) and Hidden Figures is probably most likely to win Best Adapted, we got a race.

Best Ensemble is often viewed as a Best Picture proxy, but not exclusively; Hidden Figures is more akin to The Help, another recent winner that was widely liked, had a large cast, and was a huge commercial success (see also, Gosford Park, except for the huge commercial success part).  La La Land didn't get a Best Ensemble nomination because it doesn't have an ensemble, not really.

Moonlight is in the Best Original Screenplay category at the WGAs because that's what it was submitted as for most of the season.  It was an unproduced play that was converted into a film script before it went anywhere, which led the creators to assume it had to be considered Original.  The Academy's writer branch disagreed and switched it over to Adapted, so it's in a different spot with them than with the various critics organizations and the WGA.

[starri]

2 minutes ago, SeanC said:

Best Ensemble is often viewed as a Best Picture proxy, but not exclusively; Hidden Figures is more akin to The Help, another recent winner that was widely liked, had a large cast, and was a huge commercial success (see also, Gosford Park, except for the huge commercial success part).  La La Land didn't get a Best Ensemble nomination because it doesn't have an ensemble, not really.

I would go with that, but I don't really see that Fences and Manchester by the Sea who were also nominated as having a big ensemble.  And Hidden Figures doesn't exactly fit the mold either.  Yeah, it's got a strong cast (and more spread out story wise than La-La Land), but it's quite different that Spotlight or American Hustle or Inglorious Basterds.

[SeanC]

Just now, starri said:

I would go with that, but I don't really see that Fences and Manchester by the Sea who were also nominated as having a big ensemble.  And Hidden Figures doesn't exactly fit the mold either.  Yeah, it's got a strong cast (and more spread out story wise than La-La Land), but it's quite different that Spotlight or American Hustle or Inglorious Basterds.

Fences and Manchester by the Sea have reasonable-sized casts with great acting and well-defined, powerful roles; and, particularly in the latter case, are Best Picture contenders.  Hidden Figures has a good-sized cast, even if it's not as sprawling as some.

[vibeology]

1 hour ago, starri said:

I would go with that, but I don't really see that Fences and Manchester by the Sea who were also nominated as having a big ensemble.  And Hidden Figures doesn't exactly fit the mold either.  Yeah, it's got a strong cast (and more spread out story wise than La-La Land), but it's quite different that Spotlight or American Hustle or Inglorious Basterds.

It's not that La La Land doesn't have a big ensemble. It has no ensemble. 90% of the movie is two people and those two people were both recognized with individual nominations (and a win for Emma.) I don't even know who you'd submit for the ensemble. John Legend gets in just for being the other character who was in several scenes (even though his screentime is still very small) but after that? Do you include JK Simmons for his one scene? Tom Everett Scott for his five minutes? Rosemarie DeWitt for sitting on a stool? Whoever played Mia's coffee shop boss? There just isn't an ensemble to nominate.

[methodwriter85]

1 hour ago, vibeology said:

It's not that La La Land doesn't have a big ensemble. It has no ensemble. 90% of the movie is two people and those two people were both recognized with individual nominations (and a win for Emma.) I don't even know who you'd submit for the ensemble. John Legend gets in just for being the other character who was in several scenes (even though his screentime is still very small) but after that? Do you include JK Simmons for his one scene? Tom Everett Scott for his five minutes? Rosemarie DeWitt for sitting on a stool? Whoever played Mia's coffee shop boss? There just isn't an ensemble to nominate.

Maybe they could add the old black couple on the pier?

*That's a reference to a skit SNL did on LaLa Land recently.

[aradia22]

Quote

Stone seems to have the edge and has been campaigning hard, but I just don't think the role is deserving of such an accolade. Emma played the character well, but the character lacked depth due to poor writing.

I think this is my issue. The role certainly helped remind me why I loved her back in Easy A. But it wasn't much of a stretch and was also poorly written. I felt like the times she was really charming, it was just her own personality/familiar tricks she was falling back on. And when there should have been emotional weight, there was none because those parts of the movie were so clumsily written. There's nothing remarkable in the role or the performance aside from her being the most likable character (that had anything to do) in a movie that's being critically lauded. It's almost the opposite of when Meryl Streep is nominated for a role in a movie no one thinks is that great.