S32: Previews and Speculation

[violet and green]

6 hours ago, kikaha said:

till they caught him sneaking off to try and find the idol

Outrageous! Simply outrageous behavior! How dare he! Playing the game!

Plus what fishcakes said above.

[NutMeg]

As I see it, Tai is the amazing shining goat that everyone of them wants to take to the end, in a best case scenario.

I'll explain: hussle as he did, he always seemed to to so from, oh hey, suddenly I see how this is helping me, except that his former BFF, who never saw the change from cuddly to cutthroatt, will be much unhappy with him, with good reason - they were eliminated by someone who's played a weasel game of "woe be me, I had to protect myself" (even when he was not in any danger), which doesn't work as well as a game of "yeah, I voted you out, suckers, so I can advance!" with both the people he was most instrumental in eliminating and the rest of the jury. Whatever he did, I never saw Tai as this amazing player who was all "oh, you threaten me, be done with you", but more as a "yeah, well, people say I should vote you out, and maybe they are right, but please forgive me and please continue to be my BFF".  I.e. why I see him as a kind of Amanda, to be generous (Amanda at least was proactive strategically) and I see  him as the ultimate goat, who has flip flopped so much that he left no good vibes with any of the jurors.

Then there is Aubry, who seems to have been credited as the mastermind by at least Nick, Bench, Jason, maybe Julia, definitely Joe, maybe Nate (not sure that's his name, ice cream guy) and Debbie. Meaning that, as I see it, if she makes finals, she wins. Therefore, as some others still in the gane may have the same viewpoint, they will do their best for her not to make finals. So, who's left if she doesn't make it? Tai, a goat almolt as goaty as Russell; Cindy, who's been there at each step of the stategy talk with both Aubry and Michele, and therefore would deserve the win, but the jury never saw it; still, if she goes against Tai, she can win. Then there is Michelle, who has not betrayed many because she always played from a minority position, so more defensive than offensive. Not a bad strategy overall, it gave us Danni (huge love of mine, hehe, arguably the alternatives were somehow subpar) and Natalie White. But there was not enough of her this season to love Michele. Then again, many said the same about Natalie when she won :) 

 

So depending on the scenario, I see either Aubry or Michele winning, but I'm really rooting for Aubry or Cidney. Makes sense?   

 

Eta: Why do I keep spelling her name wrong? I like her!

Edited May 16, 2016 by NutMeg

[fishcakes]

3 hours ago, NutMeg said:

who has flip flopped so much

I'll keep saying this to the end of times, I guess, but Tai flipped one time, on Scot and Jason. No matter what Jason, Michele, or forum posters say, he didn't repeatedly flip on people he was allied with.

[NutMeg]

You're absolutely right. He hasn't flopped much, but he has in a way also flipped on Aubry/Joe by "trying to force" the vote he wanted, and, mostly, he has flipped many times mentally. Now, THAT is something only us see, right? Well, no. I think players can see steadfastedness and determination, as well as indecision and willingness to be convinced to do otherwise. I definitely think that after the no super idol bit that Scot and Jason were sure was happening, everyone is considering Tai's word with a pinch of salt. If he was able to convince those two he would vote with them and change his mind at the eleventh hour, he can do it to anyone. What taints his image, in my opinion, is not that he changed his mind, but that he did so seemingly abruptly, that it didn't appear to be a strategic decision, but rather an opportunistic one, even though it didn't seem to benefit his long term game. Which makes him unpredictable. And THAT is not a quality usually rewarded on Survivor.

I may be wrong, and he might win it all, in which case I'll eat - not my hat, I don't wear one, would a pickle do? a cucumber, even?

[kikaha]

14 hours ago, violet and green said:

Outrageous! Simply outrageous behavior! How dare he! Playing the game!

Plus what fishcakes said above.

Playing the game is fine, and searching for idols is smart.  Getting caught is another thing altogether.  It has undermined one person after another in past seasons.  That's why Stephen dug himself a hole last season, while Kelley Wentworth and Jeremy covered their tracks, never raising suspicion.  It's why Boston Rob and Tony carefully searched for (and found) idols that helped them win... while So got booted 1st in Worlds Apart, and Joaquin didn't last long either.  

Tai was in a great spot in the beauty tribe.  Then he got careless looking for idols and lost the others' trust.  Kind of a metaphor for his entire season. 

[LadyChatts]

Difference with Wentworth and Jeremy is they found their idols in the challenges.  No one knew that's where the idols were going to be hidden.  And in terms of Jeremy's second idol, all he had to do was essentially follow the path of light TPTB laid for him while everyone else was asleep.  He got off easy.  Looking for idols at camp is a bigger risk, and you do risk getting caught.  The fact that Tai didn't save Anna with his idol, and didn't save one half of the gruesome twosome by playing the super idol makes me believe he's smarter at this game than anyone out there gave him credit for.  Idols can make this game exciting, but I hate how once someone gets caught, everyone considers it their idol, too.

[simplyme]

1 hour ago, NutMeg said:

What taints his image, in my opinion, is not that he changed his mind, but that he did so seemingly abruptly, that it didn't appear to be a strategic decision, but rather an opportunistic one, even though it didn't seem to benefit his long term game.

1.  Had Tai given Scot his idol to play as part of the super idol, it's very likely Tai would have been voted out that tribal.

2.  Tai is still here.  Scot and Jason are gone. 

I would say that whether or not it was strategic, managing to stay in the game counts as benefiting your long term game.  It may not win you Survivor, but it does get you farther. ;)

[Wings]

3 hours ago, NutMeg said:

You're absolutely right. He hasn't flopped much, but he has in a way also flipped on Aubry/Joe by "trying to force" the vote he wanted, and, mostly, he has flipped many times mentally. Now, THAT is something only us see, right? Well, no. I think players can see steadfastedness and determination, as well as indecision and willingness to be convinced to do otherwise. I definitely think that after the no super idol bit that Scot and Jason were sure was happening, everyone is considering Tai's word with a pinch of salt. If he was able to convince those two he would vote with them and change his mind at the eleventh hour, he can do it to anyone. What taints his image, in my opinion, is not that he changed his mind, but that he did so seemingly abruptly, that it didn't appear to be a strategic decision, but rather an opportunistic one, even though it didn't seem to benefit his long term game. Which makes him unpredictable. And THAT is not a quality usually rewarded on Survivor.

I may be wrong, and he might win it all, in which case I'll eat - not my hat, I don't wear one, would a pickle do? a cucumber, even?

 

He flipped twice but that is not unusual in this game.  Once leaving his original alliance after the merge to join the men and then back again.  I agree with the bold.  

He is playing to stay in as long as he can.  He seems to lack an overview or unable to get in the observer position to study different outcomes. 

I am looking forward the the after interviews to see how everyone felt about him. 

Edited May 16, 2016 by wings707

[LanceM]

2 hours ago, fishcakes said:

I'll keep saying this to the end of times, I guess, but Tai flipped one time, on Scot and Jason. No matter what Jason, Michele, or forum posters say, he didn't repeatedly flip on people he was allied with.

The only opinion that matters are the people that were there and played the game with him and we have multiple people stating as a fact that Tai has flipped and flopped multiple times during the course of the game.  It doesn't really matter what forum posters think it only matters what the other players think and they all seemed to think he is a flip flopper. 

[fishcakes]

20 hours ago, LanceM said:

it only matters what the other players think and they all seemed to think he is a flip flopper. 

Or they're saying it to move the target off themselves and onto him, which is a reasonable strategy, but doesn't make what they're saying any less untrue. It's especially rich for Michele to claim Tai flipped on her with this vote, when she tried to vote him out two TCs ago.

Edited May 17, 2016 by fishcakes

[kikaha]

4 hours ago, LadyChatts said:

Difference with Wentworth and Jeremy is they found their idols in the challenges.  No one knew that's where the idols were going to be hidden.  And in terms of Jeremy's second idol, all he had to do was essentially follow the path of light TPTB laid for him while everyone else was asleep.  He got off easy.  Looking for idols at camp is a bigger risk, and you do risk getting caught.  The fact that Tai didn't save Anna with his idol, and didn't save one half of the gruesome twosome by playing the super idol makes me believe he's smarter at this game than anyone out there gave him credit for.  Idols can make this game exciting, but I hate how once someone gets caught, everyone considers it their idol, too.

Wentworth and Jeremy found their clues the old-fashioned way.  Then they had to grab the idols themselves during the challenges.  But it was critical that no one knew they were searching before that.

I believe Tai made a mistake by not sticking with Scot and Jason.  If he had stuck with them, I think he had a pretty chance of making the end sitting next to either Scot or Jason (or both) -- and then he probably easily wins. 

Looks like he is going to the end anyway -- but with about zero chance to win IMO. 

[violet and green]

4 hours ago, kikaha said:

I believe Tai made a mistake by not sticking with Scot and Jason.  If he had stuck with them, I think he had a pretty chance of making the end sitting next to either Scot or Jason (or both) -- and then he probably easily wins. 

Looks like he is going to the end anyway -- but with about zero chance to win IMO. 

But they had stated they were planning to boot him, as they knew they had no chance up against him. If he'd stuck with them they'd have knifed him shortly down the track, which was part of why he peeled away from them.

I think Tai, if he gets to the end, has as much chance as anyone, and more than some.

[ByaNose]

I am curious to see if Tai and Cyd make it to the end. I want to see how they are questioned by Scot & Jason. Will they respect Cyd more and be bitter with Tai? Will they accept how they played and be nice? I don't expect too many fireworks if it's Michelle and Aubrey in the Finals. They haven't really burnt too many bridges. I'm not sure if Tai could win but I am curious how he is preceived and questioned by the jury. They may have seen a totaly different person that we saw a year later and edited in a positive light. Wednesday night can't come soon enough for me. Hurry up and get here!!!

[Special K]

6 minutes ago, ByaNose said:

I am curious to see if Tai and Cyd make it to the end. I want to see how they are questioned by Scot & Jason.

I don't know about Cyd, but I bet Scot and Jason would/will be pretty hard on Tai.

[ljenkins782]

On May 16, 2016 at 10:20 AM, NutMeg said:

You're absolutely right. He hasn't flopped much, but he has in a way also flipped on Aubry/Joe by "trying to force" the vote he wanted, and, mostly, he has flipped many times mentally. Now, THAT is something only us see, right? Well, no. I think players can see steadfastedness and determination, as well as indecision and willingness to be convinced to do otherwise. I definitely think that after the no super idol bit that Scot and Jason were sure was happening, everyone is considering Tai's word with a pinch of salt. If he was able to convince those two he would vote with them and change his mind at the eleventh hour, he can do it to anyone. What taints his image, in my opinion, is not that he changed his mind, but that he did so seemingly abruptly, that it didn't appear to be a strategic decision, but rather an opportunistic one, even though it didn't seem to benefit his long term game. Which makes him unpredictable. And THAT is not a quality usually rewarded on Survivor.

I may be wrong, and he might win it all, in which case I'll eat - not my hat, I don't wear one, would a pickle do? a cucumber, even?

I think a good comparison would be Mike in Worlds Apart. He had a fairly safe spot in a large majority alliance (there was a small faction planning to target him down the road, but was safe at the time) when the auction hit and he pulled the maneuver of dropping out of the line for family letters in order to save his money for the advantage. Even though he changed his mind and took the letters after all and his actions didn't put anyone out of the game or anything, his place in the game changed with that move. He spent the rest of the time scrambling with the outsiders and had to win every immunity just to sit there at the end.

The blind fury that Dan had toward Mike after that point was in no way proportionate to his actual "offense" but perception becomes reality and he was deemed untrustworthy after that. I think Tai's moves have made sense for his own advancement and aren't necessarily the flip-flopping slimy maneuvers that they've been made out to be by his tribemates, but again, perception becomes reality. 

 

Quote

I am curious to see if Tai and Cyd make it to the end. I want to see how they are questioned by Scot & Jason. Will they respect Cyd more and be bitter with Tai? Will they accept how they played and be nice? I don't expect too many fireworks if it's Michelle and Aubrey in the Finals. They haven't really burnt too many bridges. I'm not sure if Tai could win but I am curious how he is preceived and questioned by the jury. They may have seen a totaly different person that we saw a year later and edited in a positive light. Wednesday night can't come soon enough for me. Hurry up and get here!!!

Ugh, that's the one thing I'm NOT looking forward to, those 2 jackasses getting up there and grandstanding because you know they will. I don't see them being any easier on Cydney than they are on Tai. Michelle and Aubry might get decent treatment. 

[ljenkins782]

On May 16, 2016 at 10:20 AM, NutMeg said:

You're absolutely right. He hasn't flopped much, but he has in a way also flipped on Aubry/Joe by "trying to force" the vote he wanted, and, mostly, he has flipped many times mentally. Now, THAT is something only us see, right? Well, no. I think players can see steadfastedness and determination, as well as indecision and willingness to be convinced to do otherwise. I definitely think that after the no super idol bit that Scot and Jason were sure was happening, everyone is considering Tai's word with a pinch of salt. If he was able to convince those two he would vote with them and change his mind at the eleventh hour, he can do it to anyone. What taints his image, in my opinion, is not that he changed his mind, but that he did so seemingly abruptly, that it didn't appear to be a strategic decision, but rather an opportunistic one, even though it didn't seem to benefit his long term game. Which makes him unpredictable. And THAT is not a quality usually rewarded on Survivor.

I may be wrong, and he might win it all, in which case I'll eat - not my hat, I don't wear one, would a pickle do? a cucumber, even?

I think a good comparison would be Mike in Worlds Apart. He had a fairly safe spot in a large majority alliance (there was a small faction planning to target him down the road, but was safe at the time) when the auction hit and he pulled the maneuver of dropping out of the line for family letters in order to save his money for the advantage. Even though he changed his mind and took the letters after all and his actions didn't put anyone out of the game or anything, his place in the game changed with that move. He spent the rest of the time scrambling with the outsiders and had to win every immunity just to sit there at the end.

The blind fury that Dan had toward Mike after that point was in no way proportionate to his actual "offense" but perception becomes reality and he was deemed untrustworthy after that. I think Tai's moves have made sense for his own advancement and aren't necessarily the flip-flopping slimy maneuvers that they've been made out to be by his tribemates, but again, perception becomes reality. 

 

Quote

I am curious to see if Tai and Cyd make it to the end. I want to see how they are questioned by Scot & Jason. Will they respect Cyd more and be bitter with Tai? Will they accept how they played and be nice? I don't expect too many fireworks if it's Michelle and Aubrey in the Finals. They haven't really burnt too many bridges. I'm not sure if Tai could win but I am curious how he is preceived and questioned by the jury. They may have seen a totaly different person that we saw a year later and edited in a positive light. Wednesday night can't come soon enough for me. Hurry up and get here!!!

Ugh, that's the one thing I'm NOT looking forward to, those 2 jackasses getting up there and grandstanding because you know they will. I don't see them being any easier on Cydney than they are on Tai. Michelle and Aubry might get decent treatment. 

[ByaNose]

12 minutes ago, ljenkins782 said:

I think a good comparison would be Mike in Worlds Apart. He had a fairly safe spot in a large majority alliance (there was a small faction planning to target him down the road, but was safe at the time) when the auction hit and he pulled the maneuver of dropping out of the line for family letters in order to save his money for the advantage. Even though he changed his mind and took the letters after all and his actions didn't put anyone out of the game or anything, his place in the game changed with that move. He spent the rest of the time scrambling with the outsiders and had to win every immunity just to sit there at the end.

The blind fury that Dan had toward Mike after that point was in no way proportionate to his actual "offense" but perception becomes reality and he was deemed untrustworthy after that. I think Tai's moves have made sense for his own advancement and aren't necessarily the flip-flopping slimy maneuvers that they've been made out to be by his tribemates, but again, perception becomes reality. 

 

Ugh, that's the one thing I'm NOT looking forward to, those 2 jackasses getting up there and grandstanding because you know they will. I don't see them being any easier on Cydney than they are on Tai. Michelle and Aubry might get decent treatment. 

No doubt that Scot & Jason will make all about themselves. Since, they got the villian edit this season they also might get the bitter jack*** jury member edit, too. LOL!!!!

[Wings]

I see Cydney as the next one out if they have the chance.  She is the biggest and only threat to win the final II.  

[ByaNose]

1 hour ago, wings707 said:

I see Cydney as the next one out if they have the chance.  She is the biggest and only threat to win the final II.  

I really does boil down to the II Challenge. If she doesn't win they should take her out. If she does win I don't know who Cyd, Michele, Tai or Aubrey would do. Tai thought Aubrey was loyal (which to him doesn't mean much since he's flipped/flopped) and last week he was trying to work with Michele. I still don't know who the strong 2 or 3 are? It comes down to that first II. Who will win and who will strike first? I'm beyond excited to see how it plays out.

[Haleth]

I still feel like Aubry was given the winner's edit, so if anyone else does win I'll feel like I've been duped. 

[peachmangosteen]

Challenge preview:

Challenge sneak peak:

[phlebas]

13 hours ago, wings707 said:

I see Cydney as the next one out if they have the chance.  She is the biggest and only threat to win the final II.  

It seems from here like they need to take out either Cydney or Aubry at four and then Tai/Michele have to hope the other one doesn't win the final three immunity. Either Cyd or Aubry wins against either Tai or Michele. 

I don't think Cyd is a lock to win any of the immunities. But Tai and Michele have shown the ability to pull those off, and Aubry has come very close a few times. 

A Cyd/Aubry final would be awesome. A Tai/Michele final would be interesting and I don't know who would win it. Any other combination seems like a walk.

[peachmangosteen]

I want a Aubry/Michele finale because imo that would be the most interesting and I would actually love either winner so it's a win-win for me. I wouldn't mind seeing Cydney win either but I just don't see it happening. The edit supports her winning the least imo. I think Aubry would easily beat her and Michele probably would, too. Tai probably not, but I don't think a Cydney/Tai finale is a possibility.