S32: Previews and Speculation

[thehepburn]

Yes, they photoshop the necklace out. Off the top of my head, they did it in a Caramoan preview. It's when the person who is wearing the necklace is not in the center of the shot but at the edge that they forget to PS. Sometimes.

 

The point is moot anyway since we know who won the IC in next ep in the Spoiler thread. I wont say who since this is the Speculation thread.

Edited April 16, 2016 by thehepburn

[peachmangosteen]

The point is moot anyway since we know who won the IC in next ep in the Spoiler thread. I wont say who since this is the Speculation thread.

 

Many of us here aren't reading spoilers so it's not moot to us. It's the speculation thread so we're speculating!

 

And anyway I certainly remember the preview spoiling IC winners before. And they spoil the tribe swaps often. Really the only thing they've never outright given away in the previews are the boots.

[Wings]

They are or should be looking to vote out a challenge threat if they have a choice.  Not Joe.  He will vote for one of the guys no matter what his alliance decides.  And to think he worked for the FBI.  I wonder how many times he made up his mind and would not change it.  I shutter to think.  His co workers tried to kill him with anti freeze in his cocktail but he decided not to drink that night.  I just made that up. 

 

So the biggest threat is Cydney.  Audra  is kind of just there as a number.  Michele mentioned wanting Cydney out last week.  I think she could talk Audra into it and Julia will tell the guys they are voting Cydney out and that is fine with them. 

 

OR......They actually get Tai or Scot out with a miraculous move that appears to be impossible.  And if that happened we would not be screaming at our TV.   We would be cheering.  

 

I am not sure what is scream worthy in my scenario above.  It doesn't take much to make me scream at the toddlers though, so there is that. 

Edited April 16, 2016 by wings707

[Whimsy]

REMINDER: This is NOT a spoiler thread. This is ONLY to speculate on what you think will happen based on previews alone. We have a spoilers thread. Take all spoiler talk there, please.

[peachmangosteen]

RC sneak peak:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uuxYrPqUcmo

 

I am loving this twist on the reward. Very cool. I hope they don't reveal to them who's playing for what until after the challenge is over, but they'll probably say it right before they start. Also I really hope anyone but Tai/Jason/Scot get the advantage. Ideally it would be Aubrey or Cydney since I don't really trust Julia/Michele/Joe to use it how I want it used lol! But let's face it, Jason or Scot is getting it.

[piequinn35]

IC: 

[Lantern7]

"Dear Kyle. I'm leaving you and I'm taking the girls. Can't believe you didn't ask me why I was packing when you were doing the same thing. Seriously, you're a dumbass. The only person you would ever truly love would be somebody as ugly as you, if not more so. I'm not even signing my name, so Mark Burnett can't look for me. Fuck you."

[kikaha]

Here's the letter I imagine from Kyle's better half:

 

"Dear Kyle,

 

I love you, baby.  You're doing great.  Keep showing them who's boss!  We really need the money, and I'm so proud of you for putting it all out there to get it for us.  No matter how things turn out, a big 'special' welcome is waiting for you when you come back home.  (Wink, wink.)

 

Love and kisses,

 

XOXOXO"

[peachmangosteen]

So, after seeing Scot's Pondersa vid I'm starting to wonder if perhaps that seeming night-time med evac in the initial preview of the season might actually be Jeff telling the contestants that Scot has left Ponderosa and won't be on the jury. 

 

I was thinking that Joe might be the last med evac but then I was wondering if they'd give a med evac, especially such a late one, such a completely invisible edit. You'd think they'd play him up so that there's more drama when he's med evaced.

 

And then that got me thinking that maybe Tai is the med evac since he's definitely been played up in the editing and therefore it would be very dramatic if he got med evaced late in the game.

Edited April 21, 2016 by peachmangosteen

[peachmangosteen]

I'm talking to myself at this point but I refuse to go to the spoiler thread so whatever!

 

New preview:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J-V0wUP4DGM

 

So, Tai's definitely not getting booted. He'll probably win the IC. 

[Lantern7]

"Ultimate betrayal"? Why are the promo monkeys making Tai the bad guy?

[piequinn35]

Ultimate revenge for Tai: eat Mark the chicken ;)

[Special K]

Seriously. 

 

And I see the editors have dusted off the knuckle-cracking sound effect. 

[LadyChatts]

Are Jason, Scot, and their spouses really that naïve as to why people have a problem with them?  Also, Scot said in one of his interviews that he knew by the 2nd episode I believe that he knew he and Jason were going to be the villains based on their edit.  To be a fly on the wall when someone comes to that realization and thinks 'oh shit.'  Especially when being a villain isn't necessarily their intent.

[piequinn35]

 

This one will be a tiring challenge! 

I am confused by this new layout o_0

[Ms Blue Jay]

I am ALSO confused by the new layout.

But THANK GOD the forums are working by the time tonight's episode airs.

[peachmangosteen]

I just realized that we will have 4 players left at the start of the finale so I'm thinking maybe there will be a F2.

Edited April 28, 2016 by peachmangosteen

[azshadowwalker]

There have been 4 players at the beginning of finales with a final 3 before. I wouldn't take that as an indication of anything.

[ForeverAlone]

Yeah, but I am still betting on one more medevac, and that will likely drive the finale to a final two. 

[peachmangosteen]

12 hours ago, ForeverAlone said:

Yeah, but I am still betting on one more medevac, and that will likely drive the finale to a final two. 

Yea it's basically a certainty that there's another med evac. A night-time one was shown in the initial promo for the season.

I've become somewhat afraid it's going to be Aubry simply because I keep noticing her bandaged leg and then I just read a quote from Jeff about Joe and he said, "To survive these conditions at any age is hard – just ask Aubry," which worries me. But then again I doubt Jeff would spoil something like that. Although he pretty much spoiled Julia not winning so!

Edited April 29, 2016 by peachmangosteen

[peachmangosteen]

New preview:

Edited April 29, 2016 by peachmangosteen

[ForeverAlone]

9 hours ago, peachmangosteen said:

Yea it's basically a certainty that there's another med evac. A night-time one was shown in the initial promo for the season.

I've become somewhat afraid it's going to be Aubry simply because I keep noticing her bandaged leg and then I just read a quote from Jeff about Joe and he said, "To survive these conditions at any age is hard – just ask Aubry," which worries me. But then again I doubt Jeff would spoil something like that. Although he pretty much spoiled Julia not winning so!

I went back and watched the season preview video to remind myself of the night time medevac scene. I am pretty sure Jeff was asking the doctor if he was pulling "him" from the game. So that would leave Kyle, Tai or Joe, and I think Joe is the MOST likely candidate for a medevac. But you never know. 

[piequinn35]

I like this IC

[Wings]

Quote

 Jeff says.  So… is it possible that we are, at least for this season, going back to a final two? Yes, it is… possible.

Okay, sir, tease us up for next week’s penultimate episode.  
Next time on Survivor: Every dog has their day.

http://www.ew.com/article/2016/05/05/survivor-jeff-probst-kaoh-rong-mark-chicken

The only person who would be considered a dog is Tai.  Did he give away the boot?  Probably not. 

[peachmangosteen]

New preview:

Everyone seems to think this basically spoils Joe getting med evaced. I'm hoping Tai goes though!

[kikaha]

Joe getting medevaced doesn't sound shocking to me.  (Though the shocking part could just be producer hype.) 

Most shocking would be for Cydney to get medevaced.  Earlier in the season she almost did get medevaced. 

No idea if this happens, but I think that would stun most fans.   

(Tai getting convinced to give up his idol would also fit the bill.)

[azshadowwalker]

4 hours ago, peachmangosteen said:

New preview:

 

Everyone seems to think this basically spoils Joe getting med evaced. I'm hoping Tai goes though!

I would love to see Tai go away, idol in pocket. With it being the last time to play it, though, I don't see any way that happens. 

[peachmangosteen]

After that ep and the promo I'm gonna just throw out a spec that the F3 will be Michele/Aubry/Tai and that Michele will win. 

I really hope the women are the F3. I would love that and I would be completely good with any of them winning, which has literally never been the case for me.

[Wings]

I agree with that.  ^^^^

[jdunlop]

Just saw a promo at the end of Big Bang Theory.  Mentioned three tribal councils, which implies a final two.  Also teased a "epic twist", which "nobody saw coming" but might be referring to a final two.

[Lantern7]

Or maybe there's a way to shorten the season because Joe got booted way before Tribal Council. Is a win still a win if it takes 37 or 38 days?

[LadyChatts]

Considering they hyped a "TC first" this season that turned out to be a name crossed off the parchment, I don't have high hopes for this "epic twist."  Could this be something similar to PI, where the jurors compete in the final 4 IC against the finalists?  And if the jurors win, no one wins immunity?  

I feel like if it was a tie vote for the winner, they'd be hyping it more.  

[Hanahope]

So far we have on the jury Nick, Neal, Joe, Julia, Scot and Kyle, and Debbie

Of the F4, Aubrey, Michelle, Cydney and Tai.  I would say Aubrey has Neal and Joe's vote and Michelle has Julia's vote and maybe Nick's.  I think despite the betrayal, Tai would get Scot and Kyle's vote.  Cydney is the only one that I don't think has a 'lock' vote.  Debbie I'm not sure.  OTOH, I'd say Aubrey, but Deb might feel betrayed by her and thus go to another woman.  Of Cydney and Michelle, I'm not sure who Debbie would go with.

Edited May 13, 2016 by Hanahope

[Wings]

19 minutes ago, Hanahope said:

So far we have on the jury Nick, Neal, Joe, Julia, Scot and Kyle.

Of the F4, Aubrey, Michelle, Cydney and Tai.  I would say Aubrey has Neal and Joe's vote and Michelle has Julia's vote and maybe Nick's.  I think despite the betrayal, Tai would get Scot and Kyle's vote.  Cydney is the only one that I don't think has a 'lock' vote.

 I don't think the toddlers will have forgiven Tai enough to give him a vote.  I can see them voting for Michele because they want to do her.  

[KimberStormer]

They both hyped up Aubry pretty well in that one tribal.  Reminded me of Denise in Philippines getting feted by Malcolm and Russell.  With that and Joe's going on about her at reward, we've seen a lot of praise for Aubry's game; I still think she's got this.

[Lamb18]

I think Aubry would get Scot's, Cupcake's and Nick's vote. Scot and Cupcake because they respect her gameplay and she never betrayed them because she was never on their side. Nick because he once said she was the woman he found the most interesting on the tribe. I think he also would respect her gameplay.

[ljenkins782]

1 hour ago, Hanahope said:

So far we have on the jury Nick, Neal, Joe, Julia, Scot and Kyle, and Debbie

Of the F4, Aubrey, Michelle, Cydney and Tai.  I would say Aubrey has Neal and Joe's vote and Michelle has Julia's vote and maybe Nick's.  I think despite the betrayal, Tai would get Scot and Kyle's vote.  Cydney is the only one that I don't think has a 'lock' vote.  Debbie I'm not sure.  OTOH, I'd say Aubrey, but Deb might feel betrayed by her and thus go to another woman.  Of Cydney and Michelle, I'm not sure who Debbie would go with.

I can't see that happening at all. Not only because Scot and Jason showed their grudge-holding abilities in the post-Nick boot episode with sabotaging the camp, but also because he directly torpedoed both their games with keeping the idol. Hell, I'm a nice person and he'd have lost my vote with that move, I can't imagine two douchebags like that managing to rise above and reward him. 

I agree with the others that Aubry probably gets both of those votes plus maybe Nick. He and Michele were never that strong a twosome so I don't think tribal alliances will hold there. Debbie said in her Ponderosa that Aubry lost her vote BUT she didn't seem too thrilled with Cydney in the same video, so Aubry may recapture her vote. Especially if she plays up to Debbie's ego and makes her think she was such a multi-talented threat that she had to go. ;) And since she's got Joe's vote on lock, she seems like the heavy favorite to win if she makes it that far. 

Quote

 

Considering they hyped a "TC first" this season that turned out to be a name crossed off the parchment, I don't have high hopes for this "epic twist."  Could this be something similar to PI, where the jurors compete in the final 4 IC against the finalists?  And if the jurors win, no one wins immunity?  

I feel like if it was a tie vote for the winner, they'd be hyping it more.  

 

Lol. That was quite epic, wasn't it? 

I honestly can't believe that there's never been a tie in 32 seasons when the final 3/jury proportion has made it a possibility for at least half of those seasons. But if this is a final 2, that can't be it. 

Whatever it is, I'm keeping expectations low due to the decidedly non-epic nature of some of the other twists. Is this on Wednesday? I kinda miss the Sunday finales. 

[piequinn35]

^ it is final 2 coz the preview showed 3 tribal councils and 1 epic twist

[kikaha]

If it is F2, I think all the other players want to take Tai with them: they must all feel he is the one person they can definitely beat.  So IMO Tai will be one of the finalists, and will come in 2nd.  As for who joins him, i.e. who wins, it may come down to immunity wins. 

[Nashville]

13 hours ago, ljenkins782 said:

I can't see that happening at all. Not only because Scot and Jason showed their grudge-holding abilities in the post-Nick boot episode with sabotaging the camp, but also because he directly torpedoed both their games with keeping the idol. Hell, I'm a nice person and he'd have lost my vote with that move, I can't imagine two douchebags like that managing to rise above and reward him.

...and thus enters the Russell Hantz razor paradox: if you game so hard as to leave zero doubt in anybody's mind that you outplayed and outwitted more than any other finalist, then it almost certainly follows you have alienated every Juror to such an extreme degree they wouldn't vote for you if the alternative meant facing a firing squad.

[peachmangosteen]

12 hours ago, kikaha said:

If it is F2, I think all the other players want to take Tai with them: they must all feel he is the one person they can definitely beat.  So IMO Tai will be one of the finalists, and will come in 2nd.  As for who joins him, i.e. who wins, it may come down to immunity wins. 

I completely agree with this. This is how I see it going down; Michele wins F4 Immunity and Aubry decides Tai is an easier win than Cydney so Cydney gets booted. Michele then also wins F3 Immunity and decides to take Tai because she can easily beat him.

But I could also see Aubry winning the last IC and taking Tai and then winning, too.

Edited May 14, 2016 by peachmangosteen

[Guest]

How is Tai the goat now?  He found an idol, slayed two trolls, won at least one immunity, won an advantage, provided around camp, has some social game and has a killer backstory.  I know he was kind of annoying people last week, though.  

[KimberStormer]

I don't know exactly why I feel Tai can't win and is a goat (Ox really) but I do know that being a goat has nothing to do with any of those things except social game.  People don't give you credit for finding idols, winning immunity, providing at camp etc, unless they like you.  That stuff is ultimately irrelevant, for better or worse.  Anyway I have slowly become convinced that Tai's social game is actually pretty terrible.  If he likes you, he's charming, but if he decides arbitrarily that your 'chemistry' is no good, then he's really not.

Most interesting will be if Tai wins final immunity.  Who will he take?  Aubry probably, but Tai changes his mind quickly, so anything could happen in the next couple days.

[LadyChatts]

I don't really consider Tai a goat, either.  I think he's done more in this game worthy of a win than Michele or Cydney.  Where he would likely lose is because of a bitter jury.  Scot, Jason, Julia'probably wouldn't vote for him.  Depending on who he's up against, I find it unlikely he'd get Michele's vote, and possibly Nick. 

[Guest]

Quote

People don't give you credit for finding idols, winning immunity, providing at camp etc, unless they like you.  

I do think finding idols and winning immunity are resume points, though providing at camp- not so much.  Though providing can be a part of your social game, too.  I think people vote for people they don't like often, if they believe they played better than the alternative.  Only voting for the player you like (and not the one who played the best) is what I consider the bitter juror.  Though that happens, too.  

[Wings]

1 hour ago, KimberStormer said:

Anyway I have slowly become convinced that Tai's social game is actually pretty terrible.  If he likes you, he's charming, but if he decides arbitrarily that your 'chemistry' is no good, then he's really not.

Yes, his social game is very odd.  He and Michele got together there for a minute with the back rub so I have no idea how he feels about her at this point.  He blatantly kept her out of the loop on the last vote.  He can not finesse anything.  

[violet and green]

I think that thing about the 'chemistry' was just a salve to Michelle's ego. He can hardly say to her, hey, you're boring, and you teamed up with the other women and but for a fluke of luck you were targeting me or Nick to go  next, you and your beauty gang, you've never been on my side, and did I say you're so dull I've not bothered to get to know you, and you've been teamed up since the start with my sometimes enemy Julia and if you go to final tribal you'll probably get the votes of Julia, Scott and Jason for starters... It's just easier to say there was no chemistry - and also probably true to say that, to ease over a truly awkward situation with her being still there, and also she's clearly not a bad person - because there is no chemistry with people one assesses as dull on first meeting.

[peachmangosteen]

18 hours ago, wings707 said:

He can not finesse anything.  

So true. Terrible social game. And proof that being a likable person doesn't automatically mean you played a good social game.

[kikaha]

16 hours ago, violet and green said:

I think that thing about the 'chemistry' was just a salve to Michelle's ego. He can hardly say to her, hey, you're boring, and you teamed up with the other women and but for a fluke of luck you were targeting me or Nick to go  next, you and your beauty gang, you've never been on my side...

Actually, Michelle WAS on Tai's side -- all the beauty women loved him and counted him as part their alliance -- till they caught him sneaking off to try and find the idol.  Tai could not have handled that situation worse.  Which is one of his problems.  He's lost the trust of one person after another.  First the beauty women... then most of the rest of the tribe when he aligned with Scot and Jason... then Scot and Jason when he flipped on them.  Only one left is Aubry.  And would Aubry vote for him, if she's on the jury and he makes F2?  Highly unlikely IMO. 

Tai does not handle conflict well: Michelle owned him at tribal.  Everyone saw that, including the entire jury.  I think they see him as phony for hooking up with the terrible twosome, after claiming to be so kind and gentle.  I feel the jury respects him least of those remaining; Cydney, Aubry and Michelle all know that; and that makes him the perfect person to take to the end. 

[fishcakes]

6 hours ago, kikaha said:

all the beauty women loved him and counted him as part their alliance

They loved him, but they never considered him part of the alliance. In the first episode, Anna and Julia talked about how Tai might be a good person to have in an alliance, but immediately after that they all turned on him when he committed the evidently unpardonable sin of looking for the HII. Later, Anna asked Caleb to join them; she specifically did not ask Tai to join them, even though she and the other Beauties knew he and Caleb were close. Even after getting voted out, Anna still said she loved Tai, but she would have voted him out at her first opportunity because he didn't tell her he had the HII until her last day. For some reason, Tai playing the game -- and for the most part making good moves -- is really irritating to the others.

Quote

till they caught him sneaking off to try and find the idol.  Tai could not have handled that situation worse.

Tai handled it fine; it was Anna and the others who handled it badly. If they hadn't all gone batshit about him doing what every single one of them would do themselves and decided he was Not One Of Them, then when the shuffle came, he would have been more likely to use the idol to save Anna and blindside Peter. Julia then would have rejoined Anna, Tai, and Scot. Aubry probably gets voted out next, and the Beauties go into the merge with a majority and with Scot's loyalty. I think Tai might have ultimately done worse had it played out that way, but the rest of the Beauties would have done better.

Edited May 15, 2016 by fishcakes