S31: Previews and Speculation

[Nashville]

To me, that scene of Jeremy/Tasha/Spencer sitting off alone while Tasha spills the beans about the all-girls alliance...?

That was our F3 shot right there.  These three are tight.

[peachmangosteen]

To me, that scene of Jeremy/Tasha/Spencer sitting off alone while Tasha spills the beans about the all-girls alliance...?

That was our F3 shot right there.  These three are tight.

 

I think you're right. 

 

Who do you think will win, Spencer or Jeremy? (ETA: Never mind, I just saw your post in the editing thread!)

Edited December 7, 2015 by peachmangosteen

[Nashville]

I think you're right.

Who do you think will win, Spencer or Jeremy? (ETA: Never mind, I just saw your post in the editing thread!)

Yup, I expect Jeremy FTW.

As to who I want to win...? Totally up in the air right now. Between these three, I'm truly ambivalent.

Keith, probably, but I don't realistically think he has a snowball's chance in Louisiana.

How about you?

Edited December 7, 2015 by Nashville

[peachmangosteen]

I had Spencer pegged as the winner, but a couple posts in the editing thread have me changing my mind on that and slotting Jeremy as the winner. Personally I want Kelley to win, which I think is probably completely unlikely.

 

I do feel pretty confident it's Kelley, Spencer, or Jeremy. I could theoretically see Keith or Kimmi winning, but the editing pretty heavily suggests that they don't. 

 

Tasha, I don't know. I would say she's getting a very good edit, which makes me wonder, but based on what I've heard other players say in exit interviews, I can't really see her getting the votes to win.

 

And obviously there's no way Abi wins.

Edited December 7, 2015 by peachmangosteen

[slowpoked]

And obviously there's no way Abi wins.

Yeah, there's just no scenario that ends up with Abi winning. Even with the unlikeliest F3 of Tasha, Kimmi and Abi, I imagine in that scenario Kimmi wins, just because Tasha has pissed off (apparently) a lot of people on the jury, and Abi is Abi. But I don't think she'll lay an egg in the F3 - I can easily see 3 votes coming her way: Kass, Ciera, and Wentworth. She may even get the runner-up title.

[Lantern7]

So .  . . finale next week? Will there be three TCs, or will we be having out first F4 on Day 39? Maybe Probst's "first time in 31 seasons!!!" means a tie at the very end.

[Jobiska]

Maybe Probst's "first time in 31 seasons!!!" means a tie at the very end.

 

 

My guess was it was a three-way tie at the final 6 TC (although maybe that has happened before?)

[KaveDweller]

My guess was it was a three-way tie at the final 6 TC (although maybe that has happened before?)

 

Another idea would be if Kelley and Jeremy both use their idols in one TC, resulting in no votes being valid.  Which would be pretty interesting to see.

 

If it was a tie for the final TC, I wonder when they'd reveal it....before or after the jump to the live show.

[LadyChatts]

I'm thinking a tie for the FTC.  Since there's two idols in play, my next guess is that Kelley and Jeremy play their idols and void out all votes.  Re-vote takes place.

 

What throws me is "the first time in 31 seasons".  That's why I'm going with a final TC tie.  And of course, it would be fitting for this fan voted, extra special, extra unpredictable season for it to be so hard to pick a winner that it'd end in a tie.  When Jeff said that, the urn was open and it looked like he was at TC in Cambodia.  The question is, would the re-vote take place there or at the live show?

 

A 6 person finale is a lot to get through.  I wonder if that did that to pad it.  Maybe nothing overly exciting happens, besides this "first".

[Alapaki]

I don't see how they can fit 3 ICs and 2 TCs and the FTC in 2 hours.  

 

If Kelley and Jeremy both played their HIIs at the same TC, and were also the only ones who got votes, would there be a revote?  It's not a tie.  It's that none of the votes cast at TC count.  So, maybe no one gets eliminated on that TC and they end up having to take 4 to the finale.

[KaveDweller]

But then wouldn't they just have another TC? Because even if no one could get voted out, I'd think there are also rules set in advance about how many people go to the end.  If someone is pulled for medical reasons they cancel a TC so why not add one if no votes count?

 

But I have no idea how they'd fit all that into two hours. Have they ever gone into the final episode with 6 people? I think a final 4 would be pretty awful, but I guess it depends on who it is.

[SnideAsides]

If idols cancel out all the votes, then it IS a tie. It's a tie where all the tied players get 0 votes. The problem then becomes finding a tiebreaker - the usual "immune players stay immune, tied players are immune, everyone else draws rocks" doesn't work because then nobody would have to draw a rock, and they may not have enough room on the set for three firemaking stations.

[LadyChatts]

If the tie breaker happened at the final 6, I could see a re-vote working.  3 people are immune (the II winner and Kelley/Jeremy or whoever had the idol played for them), so the other 3 would be up for grabs to vote.  The question then, do they force another tie, thinking they'd still be immune to draw rocks?  Is it guaranteed that those who played idols would then be safe from a rock draw, since that is a new vote?  Jeff had kind of a sour expression on his face.  I mean, it's hard to tell with Jeff, but having the first ever tie vote at a FTC I would think he'd look a tad more thrilled.  I already have the mute button ready for the reunion show when he goes on and on about evolution and what a ground breaking season this was.

[Trick Question]

So say we get to F5 and both Kelley/Jeremy are there with their idols.  Say immunity has been won by another of the remaining three players.  All five votes are for either Jeremy or Kelley, yet both play their HIIs and are safe.  So then it's a situation where Kelley is safe, Jeremy is safe and the immunity challenge winner is safe.  That leaves two unprotected people, and at that point you just have them sit out and let Kelley/Jeremy/IC winner cast their votes to see who goes home.

 

Part of me was wondering if the 'first time ever in 31 seasons' meant we were going to see a Final Four, yet that would seem to be incredibly stupid.  Eight jurors casting votes between four people?  That would almost invite a tie, or a situation where the winner wasn't even the jury's majority choice (if it ends up being a 3-2-2-1 split).

[Lingo]

My guess was it was a three-way tie at the final 6 TC (although maybe that has happened before?)

 

There's been a few 3-way ties, but they're all cases of a supermajority splitting their vote to flush out an idol. The first one (3-3-3) was the vote to oust Russell Hantz in Redemption Island. 3 for Russell, 3 for his lackey, 3 for whomever Russell's group voted for. On the revote, the group of 6 ousted Russell.

 

Another idea would be if Kelley and Jeremy both use their idols in one TC, resulting in no votes being valid.  Which would be pretty interesting to see.

 

If it was a tie for the final TC, I wonder when they'd reveal it....before or after the jump to the live show.

 

Well, we did see it in the preview ... pretty sure that's not live ;)

 

If idols cancel out all the votes, then it IS a tie. It's a tie where all the tied players get 0 votes. The problem then becomes finding a tiebreaker - the usual "immune players stay immune, tied players are immune, everyone else draws rocks" doesn't work because then nobody would have to draw a rock, and they may not have enough room on the set for three firemaking stations.

 

I can see it happening at F6: Jeremy/Spencer/Tasha/Kimmi vs. Kelley/Keith. I assume they'd all revote with Jeremy and Kelley immune. Which probably means Keith goes home ... unless he has immunity. What would happen then? Maybe Jeremy and Spencer stay loyal to Tasha and vote for Kimmi, while Kelley and Keith gun for Tasha again...and Tasha and Kimmi vote for each other? Another tie maybe! Man, who knows.

 

Jeff saying "for the first time in 31 seasons"...if it's a double idol play than it kinda doesn't make sense, because idols haven't been around that long. So I'm leaning towards a tie jury vote (that has to be broken by the 3rd place loser). Then again, that kinda doesn't make sense either, because a tie jury vote wouldn't have been possible in the early seasons either, before they started doing F3s and even-numbered juries. Idols have (barely) been around longer than F3s, so both theories make an equal amount of sense in my book. (shrug)

 

Did they have a F5 last season? I seem to remember them squeezing more challenges into that finale than usual...I think one of them was a reward challenge, which they don't usually have in a final. Hard to see how they can fit in 4 Tribal Councils though!

[green]

Bottom line, we start with 6 players going into a 2 hour (minus endless commercials) finale.

 

If it is a final three then 3 have to get eliminated in that 2 hour block.  I would have thought one of the tribal councils would then be a double elimination.  But the Probst's quote doesn't seem to fit with that maybe.  So final four would be next guess but 4 people voted on by 8 people also doesn't make sense.

 

So I'm back at some double elimination or back-to-back TC's on the same night and Probst's quote is taken out of context (shock, surprise). 

 

Because one thing I can't see is three TCs strung out over days with strategy talks in between each one because, again, 2 hours.  And given an hour of TV is about 42 to 43 minutes of commercial-free material, less than an hour and a half of time. 

 

Add in the Q & A time with the jury etc and they have got to have a multiple elimination along the way to fit everything in unless a couple of people get medivaced out of the game in the first 5 minutes of the show or something. 

 

Either that or Jeremy/Tasha/Spencer stick with their plan so tightly there is no further strategy and they just rush through 3 boring TC votes with the Probst quote having to do with both idols/tied votes whatever at one of them which in the end doesn't effect anything.  I'd really hate this to be the case though.

Edited December 10, 2015 by green

[Nashville]

One possibility, since we're trying to think of new stuff: I don't recall there ever being a double eviction at a single TC.

Suppose the top TWO vote-getters win an all-expense paid trip to Ponderosa...?

[KimberStormer]

Final 4 would be a goddamn crime.  3 is bad enough.

[peachmangosteen]

Another idea would be if Kelley and Jeremy both use their idols in one TC, resulting in no votes being valid.  Which would be pretty interesting to see.

 

That was my first thought and I still think that's probably what it is.

 

Here's Jeff's EW tease:

 

The finale is … phenomenal. Historic. Unpredictable. And ultimately satisfying. I think it will cap off, in grand fashion, what most fans will regard as one of — if not THE greatest season of Survivor. I have absolutely loved the way this group played. I am proud and impressed by the level of fierce dedication to playing to win. Everybody went big. I hope future players take a note from this season. You want to be a part of something amazing? You want a shot at being asked back? You want to be remembered? You have to play big. You have to remember that if there are 20 people playing, 95 percent of you will lose. So you truly have very little to lose. GO BIG or do yourself and your family a favor and STAY HOME. :)

 

I'm so excited! Which is bad. I need to lower my expectations.

Edited December 10, 2015 by peachmangosteen

[KaveDweller]

Well, we did see it in the preview ... pretty sure that's not live ;)

 

Oh, right, of course (feeling dumb now).

[SnideAsides]

So I'm back at some double elimination or back-to-back TC's on the same night and Probst's quote is taken out of context (shock, surprise).

I'd agree, but they've done back-to-back boots in one Tribal Council before. Even ignoring the "win or lose, you both vote someone out" episodes they used to trot out every season, there was the "vote another person out right away" twist in Cook Islands and "we're having another Immunity Challenge right now" twists in both Redemption Island and South Pacific to make three-way duels possible.

[MissEwa]

My theory is a double idol play where all the votes get nullified, then a revote where the 2/3 (depending on whether it happens at F6 or F5) players without idols/immunity are the only ones eligible for votes, and Kimmie goes home. It would be consistent with her edit - I feel like unless they have a compelling story or comeuppance people who get idolled out end to get pretty invisible edits, and this is really the ultimate idol-out. 

[bdestroyer88]

I'm going with a standard Keith boot at F6 because he's a challenge threat. Kimmi is then idoled out at F5 I think. 

[slowpoked]

I'm going with a standard Keith boot at F6 because he's a challenge threat. Kimmi is then idoled out at F5 I think.

Yeah, I think the F6 boot of Keith will be pretty straightforward. F5 will be the last time to use the idols, so both Wentworth and Jeremy will use theirs. Jeremy either for himself, or Spencer, whoever doesn't win immunity between the two of them. Two idols will nullify all the votes. That leaves Tasha and Kimmi on the revote, and Kimmi will be voted out.

Edited December 11, 2015 by slowpoked

[peachmangosteen]

Ep description:

"Lie, Cheat and Steal" – Six castaways battle it out for a shot in the final three, and a shocking tribal council delivers a Survivor first. Later, the final three castaways plead their cases for the $1 million prize, on the two-hour season finale of SURVIVOR, Wednesday, Dec. 16 (8:00-10:00PM, ET/PT), followed by the one-hour live reunion show hosted by Jeff Probst (10:00-11:00PM, live ET/delayed PT), on the CBS Television Network.

Based on how that's worded I think the 'double idol play cancelling all votes' is probably what the shocking thing is. This seems to basically completely rule out a tie at FTC.

Edited December 12, 2015 by peachmangosteen

[Lingo]

Damn. I was really hoping for the other thing.

[Lingo]

New thought: Has anyone ever been voted out by a single vote after an idol play before? That would be a case where EVERYONE in the tribe voted for one person -- except that person, who plays an idol, meaning his/her vote is the only one that matters. That would also be an interesting Survivor first.

 

[Oscirus]

One possibility, since we're trying to think of new stuff: I don't recall there ever being a double eviction at a single TC.

Suppose the top TWO vote-getters win an all-expense paid trip to Ponderosa...?

Cook Islands had double eviction at one tc ( Rebecca, Jenny).

 

New thought: Has anyone ever been voted out by a single vote after an idol play before? That would be a case where EVERYONE in the tribe voted for one person -- except that person, who plays an idol, meaning his/her vote is the only one that matters. That would also be an interesting Survivor first.

 

 

Closest I could think of was Amanda who did it with two votes.  Interesting theory but I don't know if that would be worth the hype.

[Oscirus]

All you people worried about a final 4 you can officially put those fears to rest.

This preview confirms its a final 3

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L7KeC4B48Dk

[Lantern7]

Anybody want to do an over/under on how long past 10 p.m. the episode will take? I'm thinking we should set it at 10 minutes, Also, I'm putting the over/under of ignored contestants at 10.5. Unless either one makes it to Day 39, I can't see Keith or Kimmi getting any time at the Reunion.

[LadyChatts]

Anybody want to do an over/under on how long past 10 p.m. the episode will take? I'm thinking we should set it at 10 minutes, Also, I'm putting the over/under of ignored contestants at 10.5. Unless either one makes it to Day 39, I can't see Keith or Kimmi getting any time at the Reunion.

 

Of the pre-merge boots, I expect PG, Woo, Shirin, and Vytas to be virtually ignored.  Of the merge boots, I highly doubt they will be talking much to Wigles.  PG will probably only get recognition because of her fight with Abi at Ta'Keo.  Varner will probably try and get a word in wherever he can, to the point where Jeff may have to politely ask him to zip it.  I don't think there will be a lot of focus on Terry, except to ask about his son and feelings he had when he got the news.  Then Probst will move on to Stephen's feet, Joe's medical emergency and Tasha's near drowning and forget all about Terry's son.  I think Keith might get more attention than Kimmi.  But I do expect Stephen, Joe, Spencer, Jeremy, Abi, and Wentworth, to dominate the reunion show (even if Kimmi/Keith/Tasha pulled off a win, I don't think Probst would spend a ton of time talking to them).  It will be like Samoa where Probst forgot there was a winner named Natalie sitting next to him.  I don't know that Kass, Savage, Tasha, or Ciera will get a ton of airtime.  There might be key points Probst will bring up with them, but I don't see a lengthy discussion like the others.  Anyone want to place bets on how many times we hear someone say "my second chance" and "evolution of game play" during the reunion show?  My guess is the reunion show will start at 10:10 or a little after.

[Oscirus]

Wiggles will definitely get love since the season was built around her. Terry will get a segment likely with a cameo from his son. I think the ignored people will be the other premergers save Varner.

 

I think the two themes will be old school vs new school and voting blocs vs regular alliances.

[peachmangosteen]

Ciera and Kass both called out Jeremy as the leader who should be taken out, I'm pretty sure they would both vote Jeremy as an I told you so type of thing, in post show intereviews Abi's talked about how Spencer needed her to survive, so you figure another Jeremy vote. Well, unless Kelley is in the finals with those two then that changes where those votes go.

 

That's what I mean, Jeremy has the votes he needs to win already. He has the votes of Andrew, Stephen, Kass, Ciera, Joe and Kelly over Spencer. Who knows what Abi will do? It won't matter. Jeremy can also get Keith over Spencer, I think.

 

I'm just not as convinced as you all are that Jeremy is 100% without a doubt getting all those votes. I think a lot of it depends on how the end game shakes out. I imagine if Spencer even gets to F3 it's probably because he wins a few ICs, which could really influence how some people might vote.

 

There's no doubt in my mind Jeremy will get Andrew, Kelly, Tasha, and Kimmi's votes, but I think the other votes are more up in the air. Jeremy very well may get them, but I don't think there's zero chance that Spencer will.

Wiggles will definitely get love since the season was built around her.

 

Do you mean Wentworth? This season was most certainly not built around Kelly Wigglesworth, that's for sure!

Edited December 16, 2015 by peachmangosteen

[rose711]

Kass is not voting for Spencer over Jeremy after he back stabbed her after she saved him.I just see her being that petty.

Ciera said that Jeremy would win and he idoled her out of the game, so she probably respects that as a big move. She might respect Spencer blind siding Stephen, but she may resent him not going her alliance.

Joe, I don't see him rewarding Spencer for voting him out, but he may feel more betrayed by Jeremy. He may vote Jeremy with Kelly and Savage because they were together so long.

What do you see that makes you think they will vote for Spencer? Does Spencer even have an ally on the jury? Maybe Abi votes Spencer. Maybe Kelley if she's in the jury.

Edited December 14, 2015 by rose711

[Guest]

I can see the rest of the season being a Spencer-heavy set of events, and that turning some people around.  

 

I just don't feel like with the edit, Jeremy's the winner.  I did for a long time, but he hasn't done anything in so long.  I mean, I'm sure he HAS but they haven't show us anything impressive he's done that I can recall since deferring to Andrew with the hammock. 

 

Or the next couple hours will be the Jeremy show and the recent Spencer edit is the red herring.  Who knows!?!

[LadyChatts]

Editing has been funny this season, so I can see where they've held back showing Jeremy is the obvious winner until the finale (if that is the case).  We had numerous episodes where it seemed like Stephen was the boot, but someone more surprising went.  Even this past week, it looked like Keith was a goner (he gave the kiss of death 'I'm confident my plan will work' line at TC) but Abi went home instead.  Of course, I don't know if Abi would be considered surprising since she's been voted for at practically every TC.  Though Eliza was complaining early on this season that they were rigging it for Spencer, so maybe she knows something we don't.  I still think Jeremy, Wentworth, and Spencer have the best chances of winning.  Keith might win if he was with Kimmi or Tasha, but I kind of don't see that happening.  

 

In terms of Wiglesworth, wasn't the reason for this particular season because of her?  I've seen that here and on other forums, though I never saw anything official anywhere. 

Edited December 14, 2015 by LadyChatts

[SnideAsides]

Probst is asking Twitter for suggestions for things to talk about. The suggestions certainly seem to be more along the lines of discussing Keith and the tuktuk, Keith forgetting Tasha's name, Keith taking Joe's shirt while Joe was on reward... I'm beginning to sense a theme. But, of course, Probst will probably ignore it all and instead spend half the reunion talking to Spencer about how he's grown as an imitation human.

[pennben]

There's no doubt in my mind Jeremy will get Andrew, Kelly, Tasha, and Kimmi's votes, but I think the other votes are more up in the air. Jermey very well may get them, but I don't think there's zero chance that Spencer will.

 

I'm curious why you don't include Stephen as a lock for Jeremy.  I see him as the most sure vote for Jeremy.  He was solidly aligned with him and Jeremy risked his game by playing his idol to save Stephen when he would have have gone home otherwise.  I cannot imagine a scenario with Jeremy in the final three that has Stephen voting for someone other than him.

[Oscirus]

There's no doubt in my mind Jeremy will get Andrew, Kelly, Tasha, and Kimmi's votes, but I think the other votes are more up in the air. Jermey very well may get them, but I don't think there's zero chance that Spencer will.

 

I wouldn't call Kelly a lock to vote for anyone. She has a different view of survivor than everybody else.

 

I'm just not as convinced as you all are that Jeremy is 100% without a doubt getting all those votes. I think a lot of it depends on how the end game shakes out. I imagine if Spencer even gets to F3 it's probably because he wins a few ICs, which could really influence how some people might vote.

 

Spencer better be a wordsmith. Because he'd need some skills to explain why he didn't bother getting rid of the person that they labeled the biggest threat.

 

 

Do you mean Wentworth? This season was most certainly not built around Kelly Wigglesworth, that's for sure!

 

Wigs was pretty much the basis for the second chance season. Admittedly, what she did on the show was a huge disappointment but that doesn't change the fact that she's the pioneer in terms of survivors deserving a second chance.

 

I just don't feel like with the edit, Jeremy's the winner.  I did for a long time, but he hasn't done anything in so long.  I mean, I'm sure he HAS but

they haven't show us anything impressive he's done that I can recall since

deferring to Andrew with the hammock.

 

 

I would say his idol play was pretty well done. Other then the Stephen boot, what has Spencer done? As a matter of fact, the fact that he went back to Jeremy is a point against him .

 

But, of course, Probst will probably ignore it all and instead spend half the reunion talking to Spencer about how he's grown as an imitation human.

 

and how he's gasp got a girlfriend that he loves.

[Bryce Lynch]

Everyone seems to be assuming Jeremy will be at FTC with Spencer. I could see Spencer, Kimmi and Tasha (or whoever else is left) recognizing the threat he is and voting him out. I suspect Jeremy will need to win the final immunity challenge to make the final 3

[pennben]

This recent conversation is the tail-end of a broader discussion over in the episode thread discussing why (on god's green earth:)) Spencer would stick with Jeremy over staying with Kelley and others. I think the latest few posts here are just continuing that discussion (which was starting to veer off-topic in the episode thread) of what would happen if Jeremy/Spencer were in the final three together, not that we assume Jeremy or Spencer will get there together.

Edited December 14, 2015 by pennben

[LadyChatts]

Everyone seems to be assuming Jeremy will be at FTC with Spencer. I could see Spencer, Kimmi and Tasha (or whoever else is left) recognizing the threat he is and voting him out. I suspect Jeremy will need to win the final immunity challenge to make the final 3

 

Tasha seems tight with Jeremy, though.  I don't know if she will turn against him.  This might turn into a case where people either acted too late to get rid of Jeremy, or Spencer thinks he's a better opponent than Keith or Wentworth.  I could almost see where Spencer might believe he has a shot against Jeremy.  The debate rolls on as to whether Jeremy did enough in this game to warrant a win.  And I can see the argument.  I believe luck played a huge role.  I also believe the theory that the castaways weren't seeing what a threat Jeremy might have been.  Stephen said as much, that he didn't realize the extent of how much Jeremy was calling the shots until watching it back, and that he was playing a lot of sides.  But maybe I'm wrong, maybe Spencer will pull off a win.  I think Tasha is about the only one who has zero chance at this point (I also don't think Kimmi stands much chance).  Where I think Spencer might lose it is that he's going to try and play up his strategic strengths, but not have much to back it up.  As people have pointed out, he really didn't do much except orchestrate Stephen's ouster.  I guess it will depend, if people will see some of his moves where he turned on people and deals he made as him looking out for him, or if they take being betrayed into account.

 

and how he's gasp got a girlfriend that he loves.

 

 

I wonder if Probst will have her run onstage and re-create their loved ones visit moment for those who missed it.

 

I don't expect Probst to take the fan questions/topics into consideration, unless it deals with his favorite topics.

[Bryce Lynch]

Tasha seems tight with Jeremy, though. I don't know if she will turn against him. This might turn into a case where people either acted too late to get rid of Jeremy, or Spencer thinks he's a better opponent than Keith or Wentworth. I could almost see where Spencer might believe he has a shot against Jeremy. The debate rolls on as to whether Jeremy did enough in this game to warrant a win. And I can see the argument. I believe luck played a huge role. I also believe the theory that the castaways weren't seeing what a threat Jeremy might have been. Stephen said as much, that he didn't realize the extent of how much Jeremy was calling the shots until watching it back, and that he was playing a lot of sides. But maybe I'm wrong, maybe Spencer will pull off a win. I think Tasha is about the only one who has zero chance at this point (I also don't think Kimmi stands much chance). Where I think Spencer might lose it is that he's going to try and play up his strategic strengths, but not have much to back it up. As people have pointed out, he really didn't do much except orchestrate Stephen's ouster. I guess it will depend, if people will see some of his moves where he turned on people and deals he made as him looking out for him, or if they take being betrayed into account.

I wonder if Probst will have her run onstage and re-create their loved ones visit moment for those who missed it.

I don't expect Probst to take the fan questions/topics into consideration, unless it deals with his favorite topics.

Tasha strikes me as a bit cutthroat (I mean that as a compliment). I doubt she would intentionally take a huge threat to FTC based on loyalty.

I think she has some chance to win. She probably couldn't beat Jeremy with the jury, and Spencer might be tough if Jeremy is out. But, I could see her beating Kimmi, Keith and possibly Wentworth.

[Guest]

Wigs was pretty much the basis for the second chance season. Admittedly, what she did on the show was a huge disappointment but that doesn't change the fact that she's the pioneer in terms of survivors deserving a second chance.

What about Kelly makes her a pioneer of second chances?  That it's the first time she's agreed to come back after all these years?  I just don't think this season had much to do with her especially.  If it did, why not make it all 'old school' and skip the fan vote, or make Kelly the one lock?  

 

Or maybe it's just that I had no interest in seeing her play again so I feel like many others didn't, either.  To me, she's just one more past player who got far and lost.  She's as special as Kim Johnson or Keith Famie to me.  I don't revere season one though, like some.  

[KimberStormer]

I could see Stephen voting for Spencer.  We know from Ciera's Ponderosa that Stephen is aware that Spencer led the charge to get him out.  To some people, that would mean "anybody but Spencer", but for a superfan like Stephen, it's not so clear.  A lot of big-game people like to take it as "well they got me out, that's the most impressive thing anyone's done in the game!" which soothes and feeds their own egos; and for someone like Stephen, who is plugged in (whether he likes it or not) to the Survivor fan community, the specter of being labeled a "bitter juror" might be almost as scary as the self-admittedly haunting thought of being seen as a goat.  What better way to prove your good sportsmanship than to vote for the person most responsible for your own loss?

 

If Stephen were quite the gamebot that his pre-season reputation pegged him as, I would say he was close to a lock for Spencer, actually.  But in fact, as I have been reminded by this season, Stephen's pretty much a sentimental softie at heart.  I believe Jeremy was the one true close personal connection he made out there, and I also believe he was truly touched by the idol rescue that Jeremy performed.  So on the whole, I think Stephen is more likely to vote Jeremy, but that it's closer than it might appear.

[LadyChatts]

Why I think Stephen would vote for Jeremy is because of the idol play.  Spencer may have blindsided him, but Jeremy saved him in this game (even if it did only last 3 more days).  That's a move that could have backfired on Jeremy and cost him in this game.  Also, I wonder if it was brought up to Stephen at Ponderosa that people were trying to get him out sooner but Jeremy kept turning the target away from him.  I do think that, despite any bitter theatrics we might see, that people are going to value game play.  Well, I think most of the jury will.  It's also why I think Tasha/Keith/Kimmi only have a chance against each other.  But watch me be proven wrong!

Edited December 14, 2015 by LadyChatts

[Zuleikha]

After Christy voted for Jenna, I've learned not to be secure in my assumptions. But I truly can't imagine what argument anyone other than Kelley could make for a win against Jeremy, and I think even if Kelley makes a great argument, she'll have an uphill battle (although she will have Kass/Ciera/Abi's votes on lock. I think). Anything can be rationalized as a vote for gameplay, and Jeremy is such a feel-good winner who everyone seems to like and respect. 

 

To some people, that would mean "anybody but Spencer", but for a superfan like Stephen, it's not so clear.

I could see that if Spencer is up against anyone other than Jeremy. But I have a tough time seeing Stephen voting for anyone other than Jeremy. Jeremy's done enough with finding two idols and (IMHO) Spencer hasn't done enough. We know Stephen doesn't respect immunity runs, so even if Spencer makes one, I don't think that Stephen will find that persuasive.

 

I will credit Stephen with this: he's been careful about not giving away his vote in his People blog. He's said complimentary things about Kelley, Jeremy (obviously!), Tasha, Spencer, and even Kimmi.

[Oscirus]

What about Kelly makes her a pioneer of second chances?

 

That she's the original runner up who lost the game by one vote. The person that people would most likely think about when watching a season called survivor second chances.  The producers went hunting for her in Mexico. They had to feel that she was important to this season.

 

I could see Stephen voting for Spencer

 

Over Jeremy? I doubt it. As appreciative as Stephen was towards Jeremy for saving him, I doubt that he would've even turned on Jeremy while in the game after that point, much less when he's out of the game on the jury.  Hell, I doubt that Spencer would get his vote over Kimmi Tasha or Kelley. If there's a way he can justify giving his vote to someone over Spencer, he'd easily do it. Lets not forget that this is the same Stephen who was still sniping at Spencer months later when his  boot episode aired.

 

After Christy voted for Jenna, I've learned not to be secure in my assumptions.

 

To be fair, Christy likely only voted for Jenna due to group think.  In this instance I don't think anybody on this jury would be as susceptible to such things.

[KimberStormer]

Did you guys read my second paragraph?

[green]

That she's the original runner up who lost the game by one vote. The person that people would most likely think about when watching a season called survivor second chances.  The producers went hunting for her in Mexico. They had to feel that she was important to this season.

 

That's about Original Kelly from Season 1. 

 

And yes BEFORE the season that is what they thought.  But not after it.  All the posts here regards her keep saying over and over that Probst was royally pissed at her and was yelling and screaming at PA's at their lack of ability to get/coach/bring out anything in her confessionals worth using.  And the non-confessional footage was 99.99% nada too.  She pretty much was thus edited out of the season since there was nothing to show and she was considered a complete bust.  I doubt she says one word at the finale.