Survivor Strategy

[plurie]

Here's a topic to discuss strategy and speculate (without spoilers).

So what is the lady cop's best move? Assuming she doesn't know who has the idols, is she better off with her current tribe mates or her old (lying) cop buddy?

[Cricketoo]

I think her best bet would be to get with Jeremiah and Morgan, then join them with LJ and the little blonde beauty.  If she stays as a "swing vote", Survivor history does not bode well for her chances.  She needs an alliance, and quickly.  Even if it is with her old "Cops R Us" partner.  She's pretty exposed right now.  Maybe the brains will take advantage of that and try to bring her into their alliance, but she should see that they are very tight.  

[plurie]

LJ and Jefra might not go along with this, especially since she has an apparent bond with the "blue blood" cop. And Morgan and Jermiah don't really like one another, so they might not be "together" anyway.

This season is great! I can't tell who's likely to align with whom.

 

[Eggman]

What I think is particularly interesting about the tribe situation after this episode is that, excepting lady-cop, they have a 3-2 breakdown on both sides.  One has 3 brains, 2 beauties and ladycop.  The other has 3 brawn, 2 beauty (and 2 HIIs).    Logically, if Christine is really the swing vote, she could do worse than to hook back up with the 3 remaining brawns and take out a beauty.  That gives them a 4-3-3 lineup.   Of course, with that, the brains and beauty might come together to take out as many brawns as possible.   Or something else might happen.

[Hera]

This is a very good question, but without seeing how people behave post-merge, I can't even begin to answer it. Tony might be able to smooth the whole "FINAL FIVE!!!!" thing over, so she might end up back with him, especially if no one offers her anything better. If she's lucky, the remaining players will split 6-4 (or 7-3, etc.—the point is that there's a clear majority and her vote isn't the swing vote), which means she can vote with the numbers and claim self-preservation rather than backstabbing.

[plurie]

I really don't understand why they targeted Morgan, the goatiest goat there ever was. The only person who SHOULD have wanted to get rid of Morgan is Cass, who's vying for the goat spot. But I don't think Cass sees herself as a goat.

Once again, I think Cass' best move would have been to tell Spencer that she couldn't vote with them, but that they're targeting Morgan, so if he has an idol, that's who he should give it to. I doubt that Spencer would have believed her, but when Morgan was voted out, she would have been vindicated. And if he did believe her, Tony would be out and the idol would be gone. Win win for Cass!

[riley702]

I really don't understand why they targeted Morgan, the goatiest goat there ever was.

 

Well, since there seem to be a few potential goats, maybe they decided to get rid of the most obnoxious one. And it wasn't Kass? Damn, Morgan must have been a peach to live with.

[Joystickenvy]

In their discussion on who to vote, they decided to vote Morgan because they thought she was least likely to be given the HII if Spencer had one.

Kass could have made a move to get Tony out by telling Spencer to give Morgan the idol, but I don't think the idea to vote Morgan instead of Tasha was a bad one given that they knew everyone had access to a HII clue, plus the whole special idol thing and the more obvious targets were the most likely to be protected.

Edited April 10, 2014 by Joystickenvy

[plurie]

They're just playing TOO hard this season. Tony should have waited another week before voting out LJ. Now he's in an alliance of five, against an alliance of three. If one of the three finds the idol, and Tony's group doesn't split the votes correctly, one of his five is gone. That's assuming that the five stay together, which is far from certain given how untrustworthy Tony has just proven himself to be. And all it takes is ONE member of his alliance to flip and they're tied.

[Way Wes Jr]

So with six players left, there are twenty possible combinations for final threes.  I don't think we need to consider them all, but I'd like to look at what I think the players are thinking (and what they should be thinking.)

 

Players you DO NOT want in your final three

Spenser.  As an underdog, he can argue about how he struggled to make the final.  In his case, without winning a kilo-truck load of Immunity Challenges.  While he may have voted some of the folk onto the jury (LJ, Jefra,) he won't suffer any blowback for doing so.

Tasha  Same as Spenser, but with the immunity wins.  (Which hurts her "Social Game" argument a little.)  But, never had an Hidden Immunity Idol.

 

Players you DO want in your final three

Kass.  She betrayed her original post-merge alliance.  (She is d.e.a.d. to Sarah and Morgan.)  I cannot imagine her being able to reign in her condescending attitude around camp, she cannot have what could be considered a good social game.  We haven't seen her contributing to any strategy, or being helpful around camp.

Woo.  Likeable, but cannot claim to have "played the game."  This particular jury seems like one that values that concept over bitterness.  (Kass excepted.)

 

Tony is a mixed bag.  He's been making "big moves," and he's been perceived as a leader.  But he has unnecessarily blindsided folk he hasn't needed to, (or at least, blindsided them at what could be considered the wrong times.)  If he makes it F3, he may have had to (overly) rely on HII's to do it.

Trish has been playing a great game, (with a blindspot towards Tony.)  Her best argument, "I was secretly driving the bus," has been shattered by Tony leaving her out of the loop for two of the last three tribals.

 

Where does that leave us?

(Trish, Kass, and Woo) - This is the combination that Kass is probably aiming for, (though I'm sure she thinks she'll be able to out jury-speech every/anyone.)  It's also probably the best combination for both Trish and Woo, though I don't think Woo is thinking about the best F3 choices, and Trish is probably thinking of ...

(Trish, Tony, and Woo) - which Tony will win handily.

 

(Tony, Woo, and Kass) - This is the combination that Tony should be aiming for, and probably is, though he'd be comfortable with the all "Brawn" trio above also.

 

(Tasha, Woo, and Kass) - Is what Tasha should be aiming for.  She might be thinking (Tasha, Trish, and Kass,) which frankly should be just as good.

 

(Spencer, Woo, and Kass) - Spencer's target group.

 

(Spencer, Tasha, and Tony) - Isn't anyone's preferred group, but would probably tick me off the most.  I could see Tasha getting zero votes in this configuration, and that would make me very angry.  In any other (Spencer and Tasha) combination I don't think there would be a danger of an Academy Awards style split vote - the third person would just get zero votes.

 

To summarize:

Spenser wins any final three he is in.

Tasha wins any final three without Spenser.  (I think Tony's "betrayals" outweigh his "gameplay" against Tasha and Spenser, but not against anyone else.)

Then Tony cleans up.

And the lone grouping without Spenser, Tasha, or Tony is a crapshoot with either a Fabio-win for Woo, or an out of nowhere win for Trish.  (Sophie like?  Vecepia wouldn't have won a final three.  I know Sophie played a better game than her edit, but I'm going off of what I know I know, and the "general public opinion.")

[ElleryAnne]

Spenser wins any final three he is in.

Tasha wins any final three without Spenser.

 

 

I would've switched it around.  It seems like the jury likes Tasha, and I would think that players who appreciate the game would give her points for her immunity challenge wins.  I think she could beat Spencer in F3.  

 

I think Spencer can probably beat anyone except Tasha, though depending on what happens between now and then, I think Tony could possibly beat Spencer.  (Spencer's best chance to win if he's in F3 with Tony would be for the third finalist to be Kass, of course.)

[Way Wes Jr]

ElleryAnne, I'd like to agree with you, and I deliberately tried to frame my argument in terms of strategy, but, I cannot discount the edit Spencer has received when compared to Tasha's edit.  And while Tasha seems to be playing a better social game in terms of being nice, the only player I definitely see voting "against" Spencer (rather than "for" Tasha,) is Kass - and she shouldn't be voting for a winner...  The immunity wins are great, but it seems to me that most juries prefer the path that Spencer is taking - Tasha can sit around being friendly, no one can vote for her.  [Despite the fact that Spencer's longevity has as much to do with Tony's paranoia/lack of counting skills as it does with Spencer and Tasha mining that Paranoia vein for all that it is worth.]

[ElleryAnne]

True, Spencer does seem to be getting more of a winning edit than Tasha.  

 

I think Tasha's social game is a bit more than being nice, though, and I think she may be able to represent herself well in front of the jury.  She did work to sway a couple of votes (notably involving Kass, and with mixed results), and she can make a case for saving Spencer back on the Brains tribe.  (I'm not saying she'd be 100% accurate, since she and Kass both decided between J'Tia and Spencer after Tasha had successfully swayed Kass' vote the previous time, but Tasha did move herself into something of a power position in that little tribe.)  I know pre-merge play doesn't carry much weight, but it's something.  If she needs to demonstrate more of a play, she has the Tony-paranoia stuff, which she instigated to further her game, as well. 

[KimberStormer]

What has Spencer done at all?  I am trying to think of one single thing he's ever done in this game but get tossed around like a rag doll by practically every other person out there.  (He was terrible tonight, with his "Oh and she also told us, 100%" over and over again.  I don't call that his move; Tasha was much cleverer just sittin' with the girls in the water.)  I'm sick of his hero edit when he does fuck-all and will never get the "got dragged to the end" treatment like Trish probably will when she's been playing great.

 

Urrrgh and what does strategery even matter anymore.  This season, man, it started out so great.

Edited May 2, 2014 by KimberStormer

[plurie]

Ok, it's time to start the strategy discussion for the current season. Now that one "Twinnie" has been eliminated, I think the other one should be safe for a LONG time. Her only allegiance is to her current tribe, and she should stick to them like glue. If they're smart, they'll keep her around at least until the merge.

[PaperTree]

Twinnie B should be safe since she is now a single.  As soon as the merge happens, the remaining pairs should be the first targets.  

 

But we have seen the castaways behave in totally irrational ways many times before so anything is possible.

[plurie]

Twinnie B should be safe since she is now a single.  As soon as the merge happens, the remaining pairs should be the first targets.  

 

But we have seen the castaways behave in totally irrational ways many times before so anything is possible.

The singletons will target the remaining pairs, but if the pairs "pair up" they'll target the singletons. So it all depends upon who has the numbers (and who is willing to "betray" their "loved one" or alliance mates).

[plurie]

So both John Rocker and Val are idiots (as is the rest of the tribe if they believed Val had TWO idols). All Rocker had to do was to make sure he was assigned to vote for Val, and then vote for Baylor.

 

But, no, he just told Val to play her nonexistent idol. Which he should have known she didn't have since he found it.

 

And if she had told him she was bluffing about the idol, they might have come up with another plan.

 

I'm 99% certain he won't see the blindside coming and will go out with the idol in his pocket.

[cooksdelight]

John has no idea how to play this game. I posted some things in his thread regarding this. I wish production wouldn't go looking for people to fill the bill of the various characters they want on the show.

[Lamb18]

Now that they've merged and will start the jury, I wonder what would happen if one of the couples decided to manipulate the voting so that one person in that couple would be eliminated, maybe the nicer person of the couple. Then the eliminated one could work the jury on behalf of the non-eliminated one. It would take some pretty good acting. Just a thought.

[Nashville]

Now that they've merged and will start the jury, I wonder what would happen if one of the couples decided to manipulate the voting so that one person in that couple would be eliminated, maybe the nicer person of the couple. Then the eliminated one could work the jury on behalf of the non-eliminated one. It would take some pretty good acting. Just a thought.

 

The two historically have always gone hand-in-hand - but do they have to?  I think it would be interesting if they put off jury for another few evictions - especially if everybody on the tribe is making the same assumption.  :)

[KimberStormer]

There have been several seasons where the jury started after the merge, and even where it started before the merge (which is crazy town in my opinion.)

[msmongolian]

Now that they've merged and will start the jury, I wonder what would happen if one of the couples decided to manipulate the voting so that one person in that couple would be eliminated, maybe the nicer person of the couple. Then the eliminated one could work the jury on behalf of the non-eliminated one. It would take some pretty good acting. Just a thought.

 

Really interesting idea!  I think that could work, except that I'm not sure the benefit would be worth the risk.  With Julie's quit, there are eleven people left in the game.  A Final Two with a nine-person jury is possible, and the contestants probably don't know if it will be Final Two or Final Three.  If it's a Final Two, it sure would be nice to have both members of the pair up before the jury.  If it's a Final Three, it might be nice for one person in the pair to be working within the jury, but when would that person be voted out?  I think Final Four is the best bet, or else the remaining person in the pair risks being voted out themselves after losing their closest ally.  And there's not too much time to work the jury if you only arrive at Ponderosa right before the final tribal council.

[plurie]

I'm not sure Natale made such a bad move, but it would have been better if she convinced Jon that Alec was a bigger threat than Keith (perhaps 'cause he was flirting with Jaclyn and Baylor?).

She wanted to keep Keith because he's more likely to beat Jon for individual immunity, and he's an extra vote (although getting him to keep his mouth shut at tribal is a crap shoot). They'll have to blindside Jon and this is less likely to happen now.

Taking out Jaclyn would have been a mistake, IMO. Jon would KNOW everyone is gunning for him, and be REALLY pissed off to boot. And he could allign with Keith/Alec to force a tie, just to spite Missy/Baylor/Natalie.

So I think her only possible moves were to go along with Jon and vote Keith, or do what she did and vote Alec. I still think she can finnesse this by fluffing Jon's ego next episode, but it will take more work on her part. And I think Jon/Jaclyn will be suspicious of her and, if he doesn't win immunity, he'll play his idol.

 

Let's say Keith wins immunity. I think their best play would be to let Jon think they're targeting him, but really vote out Jaclyn. Even tell Keith that they're voting for Jon. Then Missy/Baylor/Natalie vote Jaclyn. Keith votes Jon. It doesn't matter who Jon and Jaclyn vote for (Natalie most likely). Jon plays the idol, Jaclyn goes home.

 

Same thing if Natalie/Baylor/Missy win immunity, but then they can tell Jon/Jaclyn that Keith is the obvious target, while they tell Keith that Jon is the target and all vote for Jaclyn.

 

If Jon wins immunity, I think they'll have to sacrifice Keith. I don't think they could blindside Jaclyn in this scenario (although it would be beautiful to see). If Jaclyn wins immunity, they could TRY to blindside Jon, but I think he'd play the idol, so they're back to targeting Keith and flushing the idol.

[peachmangosteen]

I agree that at this point it would've been a huge mistake for Natalie to boot Jaclyn. It would've left too much of a chance of Keith/Alec joining Jon and Missy, being a love sick idiot, staying with Jon, which would've really fucked Natalie over.

 

Keith not only has a better chance of giving Jon competition in ICs, he's also less likely than Alec to decide to join up with Jon. Keith is clearly fed up with Jon and I also think it's been pretty clear since early on that he actually likes Natalie.

 

I agree with you though that Natalie should've just convinced Jon that it was better to get Alec out. She could've done it easily because Jon is a dumbass. Although Jaclyn probably would've seen through it, so it might've backfired on Natalie. 

 

Plus, I think ultimately Natalie just really wanted to pull one over on Jon and that that was actually her biggest reasoning for voting out Alec over Keith. Which, not a great way to make decisions, but I understand it and find it endearing. And luckily for her, I don't believe it really made much of a difference in her chances.

Edited December 4, 2014 by peachmangosteen

[plurie]

Going into the final, I think Natalie has it just about sewn up. Her next move should be to vote out Keith, who's the only person who MIGHT be able to beat her at the final tribal council (although it's doubtful) and who's clearly the biggest individual immunity (II) threat.

 

She can likely beat any of the other women for II at final four, and could probably convince Missy and Baylor that they should stick with her over Keith/Jacqueline. 

 

She will play her idol at the next tribal council if she doesn't win II. If Keith wins, Jax is voted out. I don't see any way Jax could convince M/B to vote for Nat. Nat can spin that Jax has Jon's jury vote, and he can advocate for her with the other jurors. (Not that he's likely to be successful in this, but Nat can convince Keith of this easily, and M/B seem to have a final three allianc with her anyway.)

 

The same is true if Jax wins. M/B/N will vote Keith out, so it doesn't matter who Jax votes for.

[Eolivet]

I'm not sure where to post this, but it was about how much I loved Natalie's strategery, so here it goes.

 

While the Tysons, Tonys and Cochrans of the world are impressive, I found Natalie's game refreshing. She was what I like to call an improvising strategist. There wasn't this set hierarchy in her head: "First you go, then you, then you, and everything unfolds as I have pre-determined it." Her game was fluid -- she changed her plans based on what the situation threw at her. She was never in control of her alliance (overtly) until the very end, and not even then.

 

The Baylor vote was her flashest display (and it was a fantastic move, don't get me wrong), but my personal favorite was the Alec vote. She knew Alec was a vote for Jon and Jaclyn (given his crush on Jaclyn and his existing relationship with Jon), whereas she knew Keith didn't like them. It was the final chip in place for her to blindside Jon, but everything might've fallen apart without it. She did it all on her own, and then was able to feign ignorance later. Brilliant.

 

I think what impressed me most about Natalie is she really was thinking a few steps ahead (warning Jon to play his idol because him leaving so soon wasn't good for her plan), but constantly revising and adapting her plan. It almost reminded me of Boston Rob in the first All-Stars -- though it worked for her.

 

Games like Natalie's are impressive because they're hard to duplicate. Anyone can (theoretically) come up with: "Step 1: Build a majority alliance. Step 2: Keep that majority alliance through the Merge. Step 3: Profit." But being willing to adapt and change roles (even within her alliance) and make decisions week-to-week is truly the mark of a great strategic mind. She had help by being in the winning tribe to give her protection early on, but show me a winner who didn't have a little luck.

 

One of the most impressive strategic games of all time, in my mind. Congratulations, Natalie!

[Way Wes Jr]

I need to rant, and this is the right thread.

 

These people have vast amounts of free time, why don't they do basic contingency planning?  This season in particular is driving me crazy.  Let me give three BASIC plans that every Survivor player should have at least thought about, before they even get dropped on the beach.

 

A somewhat united tribe, much like the Blue's this season, should go into every immunity challenge prepared for a surprise tribe swap before it starts.  Along with the understanding that, if the numbers work, that a "new" tribe with a majority should throw the IC in order to save their tribemates on the other side.  This is the contingency I'm the least worked up about, as it isn't always the right play.  And, you can execute it and vote off the wrong person.

 

Have a plan for reward challenges!  I thought that Joe/Jenn/ Hali played this to perfection, Joe taking Shirin along as the bonus player aside; but then we found out that Jenn was upset.  Have a plan for which players need to be separated from each other, or which might be convince-able swing votes, or in the worst case, who you don't want to have a random chance at an immunity idol clue.

 

Up until they change the way the auction works, have a plan.  The editors don't show much strategy, but imagine how delicious it would have been to have Mike and Dan off together gloating about how they worked the auction so Mike would get the advantage.  (And I say this as someone who dislikes Dan very much.)  Or,

after Probst screwed up by allowing Carolyn to call "backsies," the two of them gloating that they played it so they had a 2-1 edge over Carolyn for the rock draw.

 

---

 

Oh, and while I'm here: Don't share your secret food stash with the whole freaking tribe.  Your final four group?  Sure, but not with the people who are trying to vote you out before you can vote them out.

[Jersey Guy 87]

I need to rant, and this is the right thread.

 

Have a plan for reward challenges!  I thought that Joe/Jenn/ Hali played this to perfection, Joe taking Shirin along as the bonus player aside; but then we found out that Jenn was upset.  Have a plan for which players need to be separated from each other, or which might be convince-able swing votes, or in the worst case, who you don't want to have a random chance at an immunity idol clue.

 

---

 

Oh, and while I'm here: Don't share your secret food stash with the whole freaking tribe.  Your final four group?  Sure, but not with the people who are trying to vote you out before you can vote them out.

 

I agree on the reward challenge - once it goes to one tribe assume that every reward will let you take multiple people on it.  Have a plan in advance who you'll take if it's two (it's never just one), three or four people.  Make sure everyone in your alliance knows the plan and knows what they're supposed to do during the reward (primarily work the non-alliance people or lay low).

 

As to sharing your secret food stash with only your alliance - not going to work.  People will notice you and your alliance sneaking off.  Just suck it up and share it all.  But show people the clue, show people the cooler, etc. so there's no suspicion.  That was a complete booby trap for Will.

[BK1978]

I was not sure where to post this but this thread seems to be the best so I put it here.  On the current season of Survivor Australia there are two contestants holding Immunity Idols and they are coming after each other.  It started me thinking about the following what if scenario (because from the looks of the previews for next week's episode of Survivor Australia this might happen).

After a merge there are two player gunning for each other.  Both players know they are the target of the other and neither has Individual Immunity going into Tribal Council.  Therefore, when it is time to vote both players play their respective Idols.  Now if both players are the only two players that receive votes, what would happen?

This is not a Cirie situation as only three people are covered by Immunity (The two idol players and the player who has Individual Immunity), so I would think there would be a revote and everyone else who is not covered by Immunity would be eligible to be voted out.

I would be interested in reading if anyone else can think of a more plausible outcome to the above scenario.   

[Lamb18]

I think there would be an immediate revote and the two with idols cannot be voted for and also can't vote. Kind of like a tie except you can't vote for the person you originally voted for. Maybe everyone would have a chance to say why they shouldn't be voted out before the revote.

[Cloudstomper]

After watching all Survivor episodes I have a question. In the beginning, is when most of the 'muscle' challenges happen. About halfway in they tend to switch to the balancing/puzzle/swimming ones. When watching people like Yau Man being seen as a weaker player by the contestants, I have to laugh because it's like they don't even notice how he was a large part of them winning many of the challenges. They just see an older, small man and the truth is he performs better than most of them. 

If I were to make an alliance I would think the perfect team would consist of two strong men, at least one good balancer, one good puzzle person, one good swimmer. Is there going to be a time when they start to notice that they only really need two strong men and then the rest should consist of people (maybe even Weak people) who have the other abilities stated above? I really want to see someone figure this out because I would expect that to be one heck of an alliance (team).

[SVNBob]

Bumping this thread back up because of the latest episode, and some people not understanding the strategy (which there actually was) behind Ricard and Shantel's votes at the first half-TC.

The thing to note is that the votes were not necessarily cast to vote out a particular target, as it doesn't matter too much which of Naseer or Heather was voted out, even if they'd decided to cut Naseer.  The key factor was making sure both Ricard and Shantel stayed in the game.  And to understand how these votes worked to do that, we need to first look at what could have happened instead of what actually did.

Once they decided on cutting Naseer, the following became the worst-case potential scenario for Ricard and Shantel.  They vote Naseer without using the extra; he votes Heather, Heather and Erica vote for either Ricard or Shantel instead of Naseer, making a 2-2-1 split.  Then, Naseer plays his idol.  That eliminates Ricard or Shantel over Heather in a 2-1 vote.

(The scenario where everyone votes Naseer but he votes Heather and then plays his idol is not dangerous to them.  She'd go 1-0, and both Shantel and Ricard are still safe.  It's less than ideal given their choice, but they get to play on.)

To dodge that possible scenario, they needed to be sure someone else, meaning Heather, got 2 votes also.  That way, if Naseer played his idol, there'd be a tie between Heather and whichever of them got votes, but Heather would get voted out by at least 2-1 in the re-vote (depending on which of the two was the target and which of the two used the Extra Vote).  So at the very least, the Extra Vote needed to cast against Heather.

But that's the case if Erika and Heather are lying to Ricard and Shantel.  What if they were telling the truth, but he's lying instead?  Yes, all they'd need to do is vote Naseer and hope he didn't play his idol.  But if he did, and voted for either Ricard or Shan?  Then they'd go in the 1-0, and Naseer would have a Big Move on his resume.  To dodge that possibility, they still needed to be sure Heather got at least 2 votes.  But they can't stack all 3 of their votes on Heather, since they're wanting to eliminate Naseer if he doesn't play his idol. 

That means both these scenarios lead to a conclusion where they need to put 2 votes on Heather, and 1 on Naseer.  This will either get Naseer out if he doesn't play his idol (on the re-vote), or Heather if he does (either straight or on the re-vote).

Then there's the scenario that was reality.  Erika and Heather vote Naseer, and Naseer votes Heather.  A 2-1 vote exactly opposite to what Ricard and Shantel have in mind for their back-up plan.  It's still in their best interests to use that plan, as a 3-3 tie between Heather and Naseer still has the same results as the other two scenarios depending on his idol.

(The final scenario, in which all 3 were lying means that Ricard and Shantel would be screwed regardless of who they voted for and in what numbers, as one of them would draw 3 votes.  Even if there was a tie, the re-vote would be 2-1, or 3/4-0, depending.  Because I don't think either Ricard or Shantel would likely go to rocks for the other.) 

 

[Chicago Redshirt]

I understand the logic but it has a couple of flaws.

If your goal is to just survive, voting Heather pretty much ensures she's going 3-2 unless she does the SITD and hits, in which case you are pretty much at the mercy of the H/E choice. If they choose Naseer, he is going home unless he uses his idol. If he uses his idol, one of you are going home either way. If H/E choose one of you, you are going home. In none of these scenarios does it make sense to use the extra vote.

I guess it comes down to how much you value an extra vote. I tend to think it is worth much more than getting out Player A rather than Player B when you're at minimum risk. 

[SVNBob]

16 hours ago, Chicago Redshirt said:

If your goal is to just survive,

I might have overstated things just a little. 

Everyone (other than the Queen*) should have 2 goals at TC: Making sure you yourself survive that TC and eliminating someone that you perceive either as a threat to your game or as a neutral party (neither a hindrance nor a help to your game).  In this case, Ricard and Shantel (mostly Ricard) decided Naseer was the threat, and Heather was neutral.  (Ok, Erika was the actual perceived threat, but she had immunity.  And given there were only the 5 people anyway....)

So the use of the extra vote was calculated to achieve both these goals simultaneously: keep Ricard and Shantel in the game (by creating a potential tie for any unexpected votes coming their way if they happened), and eliminate either Naseer or Heather, depending on if Naseer plays his idol.  Keeping the vote count at 5 would not have ensured both goals if something unexpected happened.  Nothing did, so the extra vote seems superfluous.  But I don't think it was.

*The Queen herself mainly relied on only the first goal of survival.  "As long as it ain't me."

[Iguana]

Here's something that I've been wondering about.....  When Liane used her advantage to ask Xander if he had an HII, what would have happened if he had just handed over the fake one without saying anything?  Liane would be left believing she had a working HII.  Would Jeff have intervened is some way to clarify that it was a fake, or would he have let things play out without saying anything himself?  What, if any, are the rules about that?

[fishcakes]

1 hour ago, Iguana said:

Here's something that I've been wondering about.....  When Liane used her advantage to ask Xander if he had an HII, what would have happened if he had just handed over the fake one without saying anything?  Liane would be left believing she had a working HII.  Would Jeff have intervened is some way to clarify that it was a fake, or would he have let things play out without saying anything himself?  What, if any, are the rules about that?

As long as Xander didn't also have the real idol in his possession, I'm pretty sure he could have handed over the fake idol and Jeff wouldn't say anything about it. Similar things have happened a couple of times before. When Tony had the Tyler Perry idol in Cagayan, its special power was that it could be played after the votes were cast, but at TC, Tony lied and said the special power was that it could be played at F4 (it was really only good through F5), thus making the others think that if they voted for him, they'd get idoled out. And in the Philippines season, Abi Maria bought an immunity challenge advantage at the food auction; at the next IC, Jeff told her to read her advantage out loud, and she read the part about the IC advantage, which was true, but then lied and said that the advantage also included a clue to a hidden immunity idol. In both of those instances, Jeff said nothing and let the lies stand, which I think he has to do. Lying is a part of the game, and as the host and a producer, if he told players that another player is lying, that would be considered interfering in the game.

Though a good reason for Xander not doing that is that if Liana and her alliance thought they had Xander's idol then they would have voted for Evvie, who at that point he still wanted to save, meaning Tiffany would have had to play Xander's real idol for Evvie. By doing it the way he did, he was able to save Evvie and his idol and make Liana look dumb, so win-win-win.

Edited November 22, 2021 by fishcakes

[Chicago Redshirt]

From my reading, the rules of the Knowledge Is Power advantage require a true answer. So Xander could not say nothing and just give the fake idol. 

Here is what was written on the sheet explaining the advantage: 

https://www.realityblurred.com/realitytv/2021/10/survivor-41-episode-5-strategist-or-loyalist-recap/

The Knowledge is Power Advantage

This advantage offers you power in the game…but you’ll need inside information to insure its success.

Here’s how it works…

You are allowed to ask ONE PLAYER either of the following two questions:

Do you have an advantage?

or

Do you have an idol?

THE PLAYER CANNOT LIE

If the answer is yes

They must give you the advantage or idol and it becomes yours

If the answer is no

You receive nothing and this advantage becomes powerless

If the player has more than one advantage or idol, it is up to them which one they give you and they DO NOT have to reveal they have more than one. You Must share this information with them.

If there are any limitations on the advantage or idol, they must share them with you.

To be clear:

You can only ask one player one question one time. That is it.

[Unreadable] question must be asked at Tribal Council before the votes are cast. The shot in the dark die does not count as an advantage.

The last time this advantage can be used is when there are six players remaining in the game.

I would say giving the fake and not saying it's a fake is lying by omission and would not (or at least, should not) be allowed.

[Iguana]

Thank you for the answer to my question.  I didn't know exactly what the rules for the Knowledge is Power said, so now it's pretty clear Xander wouldn't have been allowed to say nothing.  He had to answer, and I assume Jeff would step in to force the issue if Xander didn't respond verbally to Liane.

[fishcakes]

3 hours ago, Chicago Redshirt said:

THE PLAYER CANNOT LIE

If the answer is yes

They must give you the advantage or idol and it becomes yours

If the answer is no

You receive nothing and this advantage becomes powerless

Oh, I didn't realize that they couldn't lie at all; I thought they were only prohibited from lying and saying they didn't have an idol/advantage when they really did. Not letting them lie at all feels too broad to me; it means there's no risk to using the Knowledge is Power advantage aside from wasting it on someone who has nothing. I don't like the idea that this prevents people from lying or from using fake advantages/idols strategically. It seems like if a player knows that someone has the Knowledge is Power advantage, they should have some way of not only getting them to waste the advantage, but also to make them feel more secure when they're not by passing off something fake to them. But, eh. If I had my way, they'd bring back the giant gong from season 1, so maybe I'm not the best judge of how things should go.

[SVNBob]

Resurrecting this thread because of this op-ed piece:

https://screenrant.com/why-final-six-vote-most-crucial-survivor/

TL;DR:  The F6TC is the most crucial in this era of Survivor, because it's the last chance to make a Big Move for your resume without too much risk of being voted off, since the HII is good until F5 and the F4 is firemaking.

The article cites Maryanne's use of her extra vote to eliminate Omar, and Jesse using the idol Cody gave him to both eliminate Cody and get Karla to burn her idol.  Both happened at their respective F6s.

I'm not sure what to think about this.  The sample size seems too small, and only one of the moves cited was done by the eventual winner.  So...maybe?

What says the rest of the Primetimer Survivor hivemind?