Ratings and Scheduling: Hail to the Gods

[Morrigan2575]

24 minutes ago, lemotomato said:

They were also asking fans to skip the debate and watch the show live in another tweet earlier today.

The WWE has been doing some cross promotion, so that might give the episode a boost, or at least hold the ratings. 

The NCLS could hurt them tonight. I think it probably hurt Flash last night. 

Come on Cubbies! It's your year (I hope)

[looptab]

I don't remember, what were usually the numbers for live+7 last season?

[Morrigan2575]

1.6-1.7 in the early part of the season.

[Soulfire]

Early HH for last night: 1.4 for Arrow.

http://www.spoilertv.com/2016/10/ratings-news-20th-october-2016.html

[Sunshine]

Cody Rhodes 

[Morrigan2575]

Huh? Cody Rhodes what?

[Sunshine]

Ignore my post about Cody Rhodes. Wrong thread and incomplete thought. ?

[lemotomato]

5 hours ago, looptab said:

I don't remember, what were usually the numbers for live+7 last season?

Based on what was reported by tvbythenumbers:

The ratings for Arrow have been really bad compared to the beginning of season 4, but it looks to me like that the audience actually ditched after 415 and the show is only hanging on to the ones that stayed after that.

Edited October 20, 2016 by lemotomato

[Soulfire]

[SonofaBiscuit]

Ouch.  That's a new series low, isn't it?  Hemorrhaging viewers here, yikes!  Yay for Lethal Weapon, though, that show is awesome.

Edited October 20, 2016 by SonofaBiscuit

[Morrigan2575]

Yes, new series low in both demo and viewers.  Assuming it doesn’t adjust up

[RussianRoulette]

Ouch! 

I really feel bad for the only guy who's been actively working at promoting this episode and the show. Sucks for him. 

Has the show trended at all on SM?

[Morrigan2575]

#Arrow hasn't trended.  I believe Felicity, Wild Dog and Ragman trended last week. I don't know if anything trended last night 

I'm honestly not sure what's causing the issue. Could be the NCLS and debate last night.  Could be combo of those two events plus dissatisfaction with the story, etc.

Given the low Live +7 numbers,  it seems that Arrow has just lost viewers both live and DVR

Edited October 20, 2016 by Morrigan2575

[Guest]

Yikes. Time to fire Chico! Or maybe tell her to do her job better. What a disaster. This clearly isn't just an Arrow problem (although I do think some viewers were just genuinely tired of the writing on the show and gave up after 4b). 

Edited October 20, 2016 by Guest

[dtissagirl]

Yikes.

The fun part is if we compare percentage losses in viewers and demo, Flash lost more viewers, but Arrow lost more demo:

Arrow S4 averages: 0.94/2.49 -- S5 averages so far: 0.67/1.87 -- 28.7% down in the demo, loss of 620k viewers

Flash S2 averages: 1.44/3.84 -- S3 averages so far: 1.13/2.88 -- 21.5% down in the demo, loss of a million viewers

 

[foreverevolving]

My only fear is that some people will now try and tag this viewers lost on the fact that they killed Laurel..

I really hope this isn't the reason for the drop in ratings.

[lemotomato]

19 minutes ago, dtissagirl said:

Yikes.

The fun part is if we compare percentage losses in viewers and demo, Flash lost more viewers, but Arrow lost more demo:

Arrow S4 averages: 0.94/2.49 -- S5 averages so far: 0.67/1.87 -- 28.7% down in the demo, loss of 620k viewers

Flash S2 averages: 1.44/3.84 -- S3 averages so far: 1.13/2.88 -- 21.5% down in the demo, loss of a million viewers
 

The thing is, Arrow is in its 5th season, and has a syndication deal already. Flash still has 2 seasons to go to get to that point. I think the drops for Flash would be more worrisome for the network, especially considering it's their flagship show.

[tarotx]

I don't think I'm going to even look at Legends ratings tomorrow >.< 

[dtissagirl]

3 minutes ago, lemotomato said:

The thing is, Arrow is in its 5th season, and has a syndication deal already. Flash still has 2 seasons to go to get to that point. I think the drops for Flash would be more worrisome for the network, especially considering it's their flagship show.

I agree, I think it's just that 0.6 is visually a scarier number. And unfortunately, maths or logic don't make up for that kind of impression very well.

[Happy Harpy]

1 hour ago, Angel12d said:

Yikes. Time to fire Chico! Or maybe tell her to do her job better. What a disaster. This clearly isn't just an Arrow problem (although I do think some viewers were just genuinely tired of the writing on the show and gave up after 4b). 

It's my case. OTA could make me sit through a lot of weak writing, the hope that they'd be front and center again made me come back from several hiatus.  In the beginning of S4, I had good hope that the show was back on tracks. It made the disappointment only bigger.
 

11 minutes ago, foreverevolving said:

My only fear is that some people will now try and tag this viewers lost on the fact that they killed Laurel..

I really hope this isn't the reason for the drop in ratings.

I see it a lot on general sites, with the sempiternal "catering to shippers killed the show" and I'm shaking my head. Last year, they heavily advertised happy Olicity during the summer and the ratings were 1.0 and above. This year, they heavily advertised that Olicity wouldn't be together. Well...

In my personal case, the ton of newbies and the new love interest(s) (unspoiled, but I'm pretty sure that Oliver will get a "Lois Lane") made me realize at long last that the showrunners aren't interested in writing what I want to watch, meaning what the show mostly was in S1-S2: Oliver/Diggle/Felicity fighting crime without magic or superpowers or time travel, with Oliver/Felicity in a romantic relationship but without soapy drama.

So I gave up. I didn't even watch the season premiere. I stopped reading recaps after it. I don't click on articles about Arrow anymore, except on general ones like ratings news. I do think that the debate weighed on the numbers this week (and they might still adjust up). But I'm certainly far from the only fan of the first hour whom TPTB finally wore out. 

Edited October 20, 2016 by Happy Harpy

[SonofaBiscuit]

16 minutes ago, Happy Harpy said:

So I gave up. I didn't even watch the season premiere. I stopped reading recaps after it. I don't click on articles about Arrow anymore, except on general ones like ratings news. I do think that the debate weighed on the numbers this week (and they might still adjust up). But I'm certainly far from the only fan of the first hour whom TPTB finally wore out. 

Continuing discussion in bitterness thread.

[lemotomato]

Question for those of you knowledgeable about this sort of thing: how much do Nielsen ratings really matter these days, considering that platforms like Netflix and Hulu are signing multi-year deals with networks to distribute their shows, even when future seasons haven't been produced yet? The old school model was to make money through ad revenue long enough to get to syndication deals, but I wonder about the breakdown of how much they're earning via TV ads vs. iTunes purchases/Netflix/CW App streaming.

[Morrigan2575]

They still matter to budget and renewal but for The CW not as much as the Big 4.

However, don't fool yourself into believing this drop in ratings for the DC shows is irrelevant. Trust me it is very relevant AND The CW (and probably CBS, DC WB) are VERY concerned.

[Soulfire]

Arrow placed 4th on Nielsen Social's Daily Top Five --

http://www.nielsensocial.com/socialcontentratings/daily/

[quarks]

A number of shows, including Arrow, Survivor and Lethal Weapon, trended very briefly around 8:45 to 8:50 before getting swallowed up by debate tweets. By 9:30 EST the only things trending in the U.S. were debate or baseball related.  Under the circumstances I'm willing to call this week an outlier for Twitter trends - about half of my feed announced they were going to abandon social media for the evening, and I expect this was typical of many U.S. viewers.

1 minute ago, foreverevolving said:

My only fear is that some people will now try and tag this viewers lost on the fact that they killed Laurel..

I really hope this isn't the reason for the drop in ratings.

I'm sure some people will try to do this, but it doesn't match the actual numbers we have. 

Viewers stayed steady in the episode after Laurel's death. Two episodes later, viewers had slipped from 2.24 ("Eleven-Fifty-Nine") to 2.07 ("Genesis"), for a .17 loss in viewers, or a loss of 7.5%.  Viewers slightly recovered to 2.16, then dropped again to 1.94, but then ended at 2.19 ("Schism") - that is, a loss of .05 viewers, or about 2.2%. It's not nothing, and that drop to 1.94 was a definite low - a 13% drop from "Eleven Fifty-Nine" - but not only were viewers seemingly recovering, even the 13% drop was considerably less than many other fourth season drops.  The final drop of 2.2% from Laurel's death was less than the 4% drop from "Beacon of Hope" (a Felicity centric episode) to "Eleven-Fifty-Nine."

Over the summer, Arrow announced that the season five premiere would focus on Laurel's legacy and feature an appearance from Laurel.  Viewers dropped from 2.19 to 1.87 - that is, a loss of .32 viewers, or a 15% loss - greater than the drop in viewers between "Eleven Fifty Nine" and "Lost in the Flood" - a 13% viewer loss, before slightly recovering to 1.94. To be entirely fair, this is not the only time Arrow has lost viewers over the summer hiatus - Arrow lost a chunk of viewers between season 3's "My Name is Oliver Queen" (2.83) and season 4's "Green Arrow" (2.67), a 5.6% drop, so I hesitate to blame the drop entirely on the focus on Laurel in the promotion. But given that Laurel centric/promoted episodes were typically associated with lower numbers, it's equally hard to argue that Laurel's death was/is the primary cause for the viewers loss. 

I'll note again that Arrow did recover from the major season two slide, and comparatively low viewer numbers (the demo stayed largely steady) in season four did get a bounce from the crossover episodes.

5 minutes ago, lemotomato said:

Question for those of you knowledgeable about this sort of thing: how much do Nielsen ratings really matter these days, considering that platforms like Netflix and Hulu are signing multi-year deals with networks to distribute their shows, even when future seasons haven't been produced yet? The old school model was to make money through ad revenue long enough to get to syndication deals, but I wonder about the breakdown of how much they're earning via TV ads vs. iTunes purchases/Netflix/CW App streaming.

A lot less, but this where things get complicated with the CW.  Most of Arrow's revenue is coming in from post views - the Netflix deal, Amazon/iTunes subscriptions/international licensing/DVD/Blu-Ray. BUT, in the U.S., Arrow is still broadcast on independently owned affiliate stations that don't see any of that revenue. So for those stations, Nielsen ratings are critical for ad buys and revenue, and these drops will not go unnoticed.  

[Chaser]

I want to see what the ratings do after the election and the baseball is over. I also want to see what the ratings do with PR focused on OTA/Felicity/Positive Olicity, no boobs.

[dtissagirl]

29 minutes ago, lemotomato said:

Question for those of you knowledgeable about this sort of thing: how much do Nielsen ratings really matter these days, considering that platforms like Netflix and Hulu are signing multi-year deals with networks to distribute their shows, even when future seasons haven't been produced yet?

They're still relevant to advertisers [and consequently, budget], because it's still ratings that guide ad prices. Ratings are now less relevant for abrupt cancellation -- shows don't seem to be cancelled after 3 or 4 episodes anymore -- networks/studio will let a full season run, and then recoup losses in post-views [streaming, DVDs, international markets etc]. But they still count for renewal, because that is also still somewhat tied to advertiser money coming in. I do think a show with a millionaire multiple-year contract with Netflix is more likely to be renewed regardless of ratings, because Netflix's FAVORITEST thing is MORE EPISODES of the same show.

But also - there's a new thing happening with ratings too -- L+3/L+7/C3/C7 are all about the business side of thing, but the LIVE numbers have become even more of a status thing, now that it's so freaking easy to not watch live. The water cooler status has become the thing to go after -- and I'm including social media buzz into water cooler here. Shows like GoT,  Walking Dead, and Empire [and This is Us now fits into that group too, I guess] are all about folks watching live for the opportunity to participate in the weekly zeitgeist of talking about that show while it's airing/soon afterwards.

Arrow actually tried to tap into it in S3, by ending every single episode in a cliffhanger. And they sorta seem to be doing the same this season too. The cliffhanger is less of a story device than it is the "PLEASE WATCH LIVE" hook. Except it's not working for them.

Edited October 20, 2016 by dtissagirl

[Proteus]

20 minutes ago, Morrigan2575 said:

They still matter to budget and renewal but for The CW not as much as the Big 4.

However, don't fool yourself into believing this drop in ratings for the DC shows is irrelevant. Trust me it is very relevant AND The CW (and probably CBS, DC WB) are VERY concerned.

I'm not so sure about that. JMO.

[Belinea]

I doubt that Arrow won't get renewed even if it continues to post those numbers. Because quite frankly, some of their other shows are even worse. 

However, I do believe that they should all work on their strategy when it comes to promoting. Don't be the kid who cried wolf. At some point people will believe what you are selling and they no longer anticipate your words but dread them and at some point they just won't show up. Also Lethal Weapon seems to be a valid competition which I guess is a new thing for the show.

You cannot bite every hand that feeds you and expect people to still do free promotion for you. Maybe they are feeling the heat, I really don't know but I doubt they are over the moon when they look at these numbers. 

[Chaser]

I'm curious if they are going to look at the ratings for each show individually or if they are going to put them together as a trend.

[SmallScreenDiva]

44 minutes ago, Morrigan2575 said:

However, don't fool yourself into believing this drop in ratings for the DC shows is irrelevant. Trust me it is very relevant AND The CW (and probably CBS, DC WB) are VERY concerned.

So there could be tweaks in episodes being made right now, but we won't see them until after the MSF, right? What I'm curious about is the seeming lack of change in the promos and the EP interviews. They still seem to be banging the same beat about noobs, no Olicity, etc. Or am I missing something?

(What Arrow needs right now to start generating buzz in the fandom again is a "leak" of an Olicity sex scene, IMO. Or Stephen saying something like "Remember 509")

[quarks]

5 minutes ago, Chaser said:

I'm curious if they are going to look at the ratings for each show individually or if they are going to put them together as a trend.

Not sure about Time Warner and CBS these days, but a media conglomerate that I will call V and another media conglomerate that I will call D currently look at trends, along with ancillary and social media data and revenue numbers and in D's case, numbers for one shot appearances. 

This should not be taken as exactly analogous to Arrow, since the V and D shows have different revenue models, but given that all sorts of things can affect viewer numbers, my guess is that the CW and Berlanti are more focused on trends. 

[dtissagirl]

I'm sure the CW and the WB are looking at the downward ratings trend + low social media response, and maybe trying to figure out what can be done in-show to revert it.  But they're also totally banking on the crossover bringing in extra eyeballs. Last couple of seasons the extra viewers stuck around more or less until episode 15.

[Free tip, CW: have a mini-crossover happening every episode 16, and advertise it like crazy. 40 second scene, Barry and Cisco are prank calling Felicity. Boom.]

The crossover kinda makes audience reaction like this [low ratings/low social media buzz] easier to "wait and see". Stupid Barry.

[Morrigan2575]

11 minutes ago, SmallScreenDiva said:

So there could be tweaks in episodes being made right now, but we won't see them until after the MSF, right? What I'm curious about is the seeming lack of change in the promos and the EP interviews. They still seem to be banging the same beat about noobs, no Olicity, etc. Or am I missing something?

(What Arrow needs right now to start generating buzz in the fandom again is a "leak" of an Olicity sex scene, IMO. Or Stephen saying something like "Remember 509")

I have no idea if there will be tweeks but, I KNOW they are concerned about the ratings. We've already started to see fallout. Damage Control 2 weeks ago after the TV Guide Article was released. In house Screening for 503 and post viewing Q&A.  Arrow Writers Room begging people to help them get Arrow to Trend last night  (as well as telling people to skip the debate).  Plus a few other things... 

27 minutes ago, dtissagirl said:

I'm sure the CW and the WB are looking at the downward ratings trend + low social media response, and maybe trying to figure out what can be done in-show to revert it.  But they're also totally banking on the crossover bringing in extra eyeballs. Last couple of seasons the extra viewers stuck around more or less until episode 15.

[Free tip, CW: have a mini-crossover happening every episode 16, and advertise it like crazy. 40 second scene, Barry and Cisco are prank calling Felicity. Boom.]

The crossover kinda makes audience reaction like this [low ratings/low social media buzz] easier to "wait and see". Stupid Barry.

Could you imagine what would happen if there wasn't a huge ratings boost for the crossovers?

[dtissagirl]

2 minutes ago, Morrigan2575 said:

Could you imagine what would happen if there wasn't a huge ratings boost for the crossovers?

Pedowitz gets fired? LoT gets killed at the end of the season? The CW goes back to being the girly channel?

[Morrigan2575]

2 minutes ago, dtissagirl said:

Pedowitz gets fired? LoT gets killed at the end of the season? The CW goes back to being the girly channel?

Human sacrifice! Dogs and cats living together! Mass hysteria!

[GirlvsTV]

Even if there is a crossover ratings boost, if the shows are already down going in to the crossover the boost most likely won't be as large as they might have been expecting.

I wonder if the 4 shows from Mon-Thurs just overdid it? Packaging them that way and focusing on promoting the comic book side of things may have actually read as repetitive or too samey across all the shows to viewers. Maybe splitting it to 2 shows in the Fall, 2 in the Spring might have worked better. Even Netflix only releases one of their Marvel shows at a time. 

[SmallScreenDiva]

12 minutes ago, Morrigan2575 said:

Damage Control 2 weeks ago after the TV Guide Article was released. 

OK, I know Guggenheim went back on Tumblr after eons but he didn't seem to address any of the concerns that followed after the fandom read the TV Guide Article (mainly Olicity being totally over this season) so I'm having a hard time seeing that as damage control. I guess I'm asking what else Arrow tried to do as damage control. I'm totally missing it. 

13 minutes ago, dtissagirl said:

The CW goes back to being the girly channel?

If this means the "romance = cooties" mentality for Arrow right now disappears, I'm all for it!

[Morrigan2575]

42 minutes ago, SmallScreenDiva said:

OK, I know Guggenheim went back on Tumblr after eons but he didn't seem to address any of the concerns that followed after the fandom read the TV Guide Article (mainly Olicity being totally over this season) so I'm having a hard time seeing that as damage control. I guess I'm asking what else Arrow tried to do as damage control. I'm totally missing it. 

If this means the "romance = cooties" mentality for Arrow right now disappears, I'm all for it!

I already went through this list in my previous post. I forgot to include the fact that DR, ERB and SA all jumped on SM same night as MG. That was NOT mere coincidence. 

There are also other things going on BTS. Like i said, I KNOW the CW isn't happy with these ratings. 

http://www.spoilertv.com/2016/10/final-adjusted-tv-ratings-for-wednesday_20.html?m=1

0.6 / 1.79

Edited October 20, 2016 by Morrigan2575

[Lily-n11]

1 hour ago, Morrigan2575 said:

I already went through this list in my previous post. I forgot to include the fact that DR, ERB and SA all jumped on SM same night as MG. That was NOT mere coincidence. 

There are also other things going on BTS. Like i said, I KNOW the CW isn't happy with these ratings. 

 

This sounds like you got some inside scoop about it. Would you consider sharing with the rest of us? Or just me ?.  I'm always interested in BTS stuff. Mostly gossip but the with state of things right now I just wonder: What are they (cast, writers, Ep's and the higher ups) thinking? Who is making these decisions? Who is telling who what to do, say or write? I just want to understand what is going on with the show right now.

Edited October 20, 2016 by Lily-n11

[lemotomato]

1 hour ago, writersblock51 said:

I also think having "Lethal Weapon" on a break for a few weeks could help Arrow with some viewers.

This is a good point. A Chicago vs Cleveland World Series could be the best scenario for Arrow because it postpones Lethal Weapon for a few weeks, and puts LA viewers (the #2 ranked marketing area for Nielsen) back into play. Right now both LA and Chicago (#3 ranked market) are tied up with baseball.

I'm bored, so I looked at the competing sports events in the last 2 weeks:

10/4: Flash premiere, Toronto vs Baltimore(#9 market; I'm assuming it's lumped with Washington DC)
10/5 : Arrow premiere, NYC (#1 market) vs SF(#6 market)
10/10: Supergirl premiere, Cleveland vs Boston (#7), Chicago (#3) vs SF(#6)
10/11: Flash 3.02, LA(#2) vs DC and Chicago vs SF
10/12: Arrow 5.02, no baseball
10/13: LoT premiere, LA vs DC
10/17: Supergirl 2.02, Cleveland vs Toronto
10/18: Flash 3.03, LA vs Chicago
10/19: Arrow 5.03, LA vs Chicago

LA and Chicago are playing tonight too, so let's see if the ratings trend continues.

Edited October 20, 2016 by lemotomato

[kismet]

Gotta say the ratings drop feels about right. You can only rely on your fans loyalty through your crappy writing and plotting shenanigans for so long. I wouldn't even blame this slide on the PR. Certainly the advertisements are not helping to build the audience.

But it's not PRs fault that core audience members like myself are ready to walk away. I only watched the premiere this season and its back to basics was missing some core elements for me. S4 made me question the writers on fundamental level. They messed with me for parts of s3; offended me with a lot of s4 & promised me nothing good for s5. I will not enable them further in hopes they finally get it together. 

The ratings drop IMO does not just reflect a poor PR job or healthy competition, it reflects a chunk of your core audience finding entertainment & solace anywhere else - which is not promising. Perhaps some of us will return, perhaps not. At the end of the day MG & co made this bed, its time for them to sleep in it.

[bethy]

On another site someone said the CW App may be responsible for the drop because people can watch the episode within hours of the live airing? I have no opinion on that, just thought it was interesting as a possibility. 

[quarks]

Arrow has pretty much always dropped against the World Series, so, even if the Cubs manage to sacrifice a few goats before next week, I'm not sure that's going to help Arrow much. It's even possible that the Cubs might draw more viewers than the Dodgers, given how long it's been since the Cubs even got into the Series, much less won it - something that's going to generate a lot of buzz.

(go CUBS!)

With the CW app - well, people could also watch the episode within hours of live airing in past seasons on Hulu or through the CW website, so I'm not sure how much of a difference that made.

[Morrigan2575]

40 minutes ago, lemotomato said:

This is a good point. A Chicago vs Cleveland World Series could be the best scenario for Arrow because it postpones Lethal Weapon for a few weeks, and puts LA viewers (the #2 ranked marketing area for Nielsen) back into play. Right now both LA and Chicago (#3 ranked market) are tied up with baseball.

I'm bored, so I looked at the competing sports events in the last 2 weeks:

10/4: Flash premiere, Toronto vs Baltimore(#9 market; I'm assuming it's lumped with Washington DC)
10/5 : Arrow premiere, NYC (#1 market) vs SF(#6 market)
10/10: Supergirl premiere, Cleveland vs Boston (#7), Chicago (#2) vs SF(#6)
10/11: Flash 3.02, LA(#2) vs DC and Chicago vs SF
10/12: Arrow 5.02, no baseball
10/13: LoT premiere, LA vs DC
10/17: Supergirl 2.02, Cleveland vs Toronto
10/18: Flash 3.03, LA vs Chicago
10/19: Arrow 5.03, LA vs Chicago

LA and Chicago are playing tonight too, so let's see if the ratings trend continues.

We've had 4 years of ratings to show exactly when Arrow is impacted by Sports. For the record that's traditionally the WS and in Spring when Chicago stations were preempted. That's about it, a single non championship game would not have much impact on Arrow or Flash.

1 minute ago, bethy said:

On another site someone said the CW App may be responsible for the drop because people can watch the episode within hours of the live airing? I have no opinion on that, just thought it was interesting as a possibility. 

Possibly but it's nothing new, as Quarks mentioned the option was there last year with Hulu. 

[catrox14]

I dropped Hulu when they wanted the 8 bucks and still make we watch ads.  The CW app has ads but otherwise it is free.  I can see those numbers going up.

[tarotx]

The sports and other network competition are probably impacting a little but you can just see the disinterest people are having across the CW DC superhero genre. I mean here, in all the facebook groups I follow and on Twitter. I don't follow the fandom on tumblr but it's surely there too. The comments are less and less on articles as well.

[Morrigan2575]

That is absolutely the worst possible scenario.

If it's sports you can weather the storm since seasons end.

If it's competition you can move the show or hope the other network alters their schedule. 

If it's a single issue (lack/too much of a character/ship/storyline etc) you can adjust the story and hope to lure viewers back.

However, there's nothing you can do for fatigue or over saturation.  

[Chaser]

That's why you feed the shippers. No audience is more loyal. They will stay till the bitter end so long as they feel they will get a reward.

Taking Olicity to an engagement, breaking them up and 'rebooting' them with an 'ambiguous' message was the dumbest thing they could do.

I'm not saying they should mold the story around them or they should be the target audience, but know the value.

[Morrigan2575]

I'm not sure this is the correct place but, i found it odd that The CW ran an Arrow promo...well they ran the 501 promo which seems really wrong of you want to promote the up coming episode.