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Ratings And Scheduling: I Can't Do This Alone


kimrey
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I just noticed that everywhere, on all episode calendars, Wikipedia, etc the episodes after ep 15 are no longer mentioned.

What does that mean? Is there going to be another big break before they continue with ep 16?

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(edited)

Probably. The CW generally takes a break for a couple of weeks in March.  FYI, this is a good topic for the Ratings and Scheduling thread :)

Edited by catrox14
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15 minutes ago, catrox14 said:

Probably. The CW generally takes a break for a couple of weeks in March.  FYI, this is a good topic for the Ratings and Scheduling thread :)

Yeah, I wasn't sure where to take this.. But another break then? Man, I hope they can end this third on a bit of a high. How long is the wait usually? This is the first time I'm following Supernatural as it is broadcast...

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Just now, voskat said:

Yeah, I wasn't sure where to take this.. But another break then? Man, I hope they can end this third on a bit of a high. How long is the wait usually? This is the first time I'm following Supernatural as it is broadcast...

Yeah, they usually return towards the end of March and then theorectically not another break to the end except maybe for Easter week.  Last year the break was from Feb 24 to March 23 and then ran straight through to the end of season.

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(edited)

From a new thread...

@voskat

25 minutes ago, voskat said:

Aha.. So what do they get up to during that month? Are they just trying to space out the season in order to get the finale to happen on a certain date?

 

 Yes, last full week of May (before Memorial day).  We'll have a run from (likely) April 5 to May 26.

Another option is to take a two week break (to skip March madness days 17th & 23rd), and a one week break of either the April 13th or 20th.  They won't do anything less (if past is prologue) than 5 in-a-row episodes at the end. 

This has been their pattern for the last several years.  Seems they start the CW late (late Sep, early Oct) and finish late (late May).  Supernatural is often one of LAST prime time shows on any network to air during the 'regular season'.  That may be something they have found to be valuable.  Although the advertising rate is set BEFORE then at the May "upfronts" -- before all the May sweeps are in.  

Edited by SueB
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3 minutes ago, SueB said:

yikes.  That's low IMO.  I hope they move us back to 9pm in the fall.

Me too, it's just too early. (well it's 8pm for me, but you know what I mean.)

Edited by Diane
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I was hoping for a slight increase in overall viewers, but I'm not that surprised. Whatever way you look at it there wasn't much to draw viewers in. Last weeks episode wasn't particularly good and the promos didn't seem to draw much online buzz either.  

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Yes, and the warm weather on the East Coast is keeping people out of their house until later in the evening.  Especially effects the 8am hour.  Sunset is pushing back.  It's EARLY for the year, usually this starts in later March or April (which is why SPN always takes a spring break around 1) March Madness and 2) spring break).  But I can see it happening early this year which means it affects more shows.  Depends on if their %drop is more or less than the rest of TV.   

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I still contend that not showing previews for the next episode doesn't help either. AFAIK, we are the only show on the CW that doesn't have them after the program. Not everyone wants to go online to see them.

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5 minutes ago, FlickChick said:

I still contend that not showing previews for the next episode doesn't help either. AFAIK, we are the only show on the CW that doesn't have them after the program. Not everyone wants to go online to see them.

I don't, I'm going in blind every week. So yeah I can see that being a factor. 

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On 3/3/2017 at 0:51 PM, SueB said:

Yes, and the warm weather on the East Coast is keeping people out of their house until later in the evening.  Especially effects the 8am hour.  Sunset is pushing back.

Also it was up against "The Voice" which NBC knows when it has a good thing ratings-wise - not a common occurrence for them these days - they have sometimes 2 seasons of that show a year and it still gets big ratings, and since the auditions I'm betting are the favorite part, they promote the crap out of them and have them on multiple nights of the week

Of course when SPN used to be on at 9 on Weds, a bunch of other shows I liked were also on then, but 8 o'clock: nada. Now on Thursdays, there's 3 things I watch on at 8, and nothing at 9 (I only regularly watch Chicago Fire from NBCs "Chicago" franchise, so I have little to no interest in Chicago Med at 9) So I have to watch The Voice and the adorable cooking moppets and Gordon Ramsey getting slimed by various food (Master Chef Junior) on On Demand a day or so afterwards.

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16 minutes ago, bearcatfan said:

Which thread was it that we discussed Season 11 showings on TNT? Anyhow, I checked and "Baby" will be aired when the run Season 11 this time around.

YAY!!!!

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Ouch ?

Fast-Demo-2017-Mar-09.THU_.png

But to put things in perspective, Flash dripped down to a 0.9 in demo and series low in viewers. LoT dropped to a 0.5 and 1.5+ million viewers both series lows. Arrow wasn't on this week.

Seems like CW was just really down this week. 

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Ouch, indeed, but I'm not sure it's actually out of step with the show historically. Here's a great little graph to put things in perspective: http://graphtv.kevinformatics.com/tt0460681

Capture.thumb.PNG.d7efcb4a5e9299c576ea230a97b6e698.PNG

We're no where near the series low of Bloodlines and last year at this time Read Meat pulled even lower ratings (0.6/1.45). Seems to me Supernatural is doing what it always does--keeps pluggin' along.

Edited by DittyDotDot
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3 minutes ago, Wayward Son said:

Ouch. New series low if that keeps. Bar Stuck In The Middle (With You), which did decently, the move to 8 has been a disaster for the show. 

Oh, I disagree. Historically, the ratings dip this time of year. They're actually pulling better ratings than they did last year at this time when they were in the later time slot. I'm one of those weirdos who thinks the show performs no matter where or when they put it, though.

Edited by DittyDotDot
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3 minutes ago, DittyDotDot said:

Oh, I disagree. Historically, the ratings dip this time of year. They're actually pulling better ratings than they did last year at this time when they were in the later time slot. I'm one of those weirdos who thinks the show performs no matter where or when they put it, though.

The 0.5 is a new series low! And when it comes to ratings the demo is more important than the viewer count. Not that it matters because we've been renewed anyway, but that 0.5 is a new low! 

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2 minutes ago, DittyDotDot said:

Seems to me Supernatural is doing what it always does--keeps pluggin' along.

3 minutes ago, DittyDotDot said:

Read Meat pulled even lower ratings (0.6/1.45)

It's the demo that really matters to the network, not the total audience size so for them a 0.5 1.58m is much worse than a 0.6 1.45m even if the audience size was slightly lower for Red Meat.

Of course the inexorable fall in ratings that affects every show over time has been much slower for SPN which has been an amazing achievement and is why we are still on air. However I believe the quality of the last few eps of the show has been off, the lack of screen time for Sam and Dean together - which is the main draw of the show for many - has been lacking due to on and off screen reasons (Jensen's twins being born, both Ja wanting more time off, and a big loss of experienced writers this season) and that this is gradually affecting the ratings. I just hope the next few eps are good enough to steady the ratings ship, but Dabb needs to put more effort into writing for his leads and their relationship rather than putting all the focus on Mary, Rowena, Lucifer, Cas, Crowley et al.

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8 minutes ago, Geordiegirl1967 said:

It's the demo that really matters to the network, not the total audience size so for them a 0.5 1.58m is much worse than a 0.6 1.45m even if the audience size was slightly lower for Red Meat.

I understand that, but put into the perspective that everything on the CW has been down this year and there's a good chance for an adjustment upwards here, I think Supernatural is doing just fine. I don't think the new time slot has much to do with the ratings dip, myself. But, like I said, I'm a weirdo, so... .

Edited by DittyDotDot
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According to TVBYTHENUMBERS the CW was preempted in several markets last night for base ball. This means there is a higher chance of adjustment than there would normally be :)

Preemptions usually mean adjusting down, though. Because the preliminary ratings count every viewer during the hour on the channel, including the (usually) sports for which the normal programming is preempted. Whereas the Finals only count those watching the programme in question. The very best you can hope for is ratings staying the same even with preemptions.

Unless they changed the system but I don`t know that they did.

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2 hours ago, Wayward Son said:

According to TVBYTHENUMBERS the CW was preempted in several markets last night for base ball. This means there is a higher chance of adjustment than there would normally be :)

True but they are likely to adjust down not up. The overnights count whoever is watching CW in that timeslot regardless of whether baseball or SPN was showing in that area. In the finals the baseball viewers are deducted so it is likely figures will go down. What it might tell us is that fewer people tuned into CW because of baseball being on instead of SPN i.e. that in those areas SPN would've done better for the local affiliates but thats impossible to prove.

2 hours ago, Aeryn13 said:

Preemptions usually mean adjusting down, though

Oops sorry @Aeryn13. I didn't spot that you had just posted the same explanation.

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10 minutes ago, Wayward Son said:

Finals are in 0.5 in the demo and viewers adjusted down to 1.49 million. 

Damn. that's rough.

11 minutes ago, Wayward Son said:

Finals are in 0.5 in the demo and viewers adjusted down to 1.49 million. 

I realize they have been renewed but can they get UNrenewed if the numbers continue to be this bad?

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4 minutes ago, catrox14 said:

Damn. that's rough.

I realize they have been renewed but can they get UNrenewed if the numbers continue to be this bad?

That won't be an issue... not on the CW. Renewed dramas Jane the Virgin, The 100, Crazy Ex Girlfriend and Riverdale are all still doing worse than us. Right now I'd say we are somewhere middle in the pack. However, the CWs ratings are so low / tight that even the slightest fall to a 0.4 could see us enter danger area.

So basically we are safe at the moment, but it's a very fragile safe.

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23 hours ago, Wayward Son said:

That won't be an issue... not on the CW. Renewed dramas Jane the Virgin, The 100, Crazy Ex Girlfriend and Riverdale are all still doing worse than us. Right now I'd say we are somewhere middle in the pack. However, the CWs ratings are so low / tight that even the slightest fall to a 0.4 could see us enter danger area.

So basically we are safe at the moment, but it's a very fragile safe.

Well, IMO if the writing continues the way it has gone this season so far, 0.4 is right around the corner. Unfortunately, they would deserve the drop under the circumstances. If that happens, then we may get a "final season" send-off from the network next year.

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Personally I'd say we'd need to drop to a 0.3 for them to outright cancel / last season the show. A 0.4 would definitely make them very nervous but I think the show has enough going for it that they wouldn't cancel just yet. Apparently the CW gets a lot of money for the show from Netflix (they pay extra for every season a show has so Supernatural with its 200+ episode would be quite lucrative). The show is also much cheaper than most CW dramas because it only has two full time leads. 

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The writing has definitely been a factor this season, I think.  I'm a diehard fan, but some episodes have been painful.  If you've got people who are not so vested in the show, they could easily walk away after a few stinkers in a row.  I personally think the CW has taken the show and it's fans for granted by doing very little to maintain the quality.  It really is stupid on their part, because SPN could continue to be a big money maker for them with just a little support.

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I've been thinking on the ratings and in my opinion this is the position the show is likely to be in if it gets certain ratings. 

If it doesn't sink any lower and maintains a 0.5-0.6 for the rest of the season: The show remains completely safe and we should get a full season order. They may possibly reduce the order from 23 to a standard 22 though. 

If it falls to 0.4: The show should still be safe, but the CW executives may be feeling nervous. If ratings fall to this level I could see the show getting a reduced order of 13-16 episodes for season 13 and beyond. 

If it falls to 0.3: The show will definitely be in danger of cancellation. Whether it survives beyond season 13 would probably depend on additional factors such as; does the money gained from Netflix and other streaming services, DVDs and syndication etc offset the loss of advertising venue? Would J2, and possibly M2, be willing to take pay cuts to reduce the overall cost of the show etc? Since the seasons episode count would most likely be reduced (thus reducing J2's workload) I could even see them lowering Misha and Mark from recurring to guest stars to cut costs.  

0.2 and below: It would definitely be a final season 13. I could even see the CW taking the Nikita route and giving a very short order of 6-8 episodes to quickly wrap things up. 

I hope though that we'll keep 0.5 as a low for a while yet. After all it took five years for the series low to turn from a 0.6 to a 0.5. The shows first 0.6 occurred in season seven. 

Edited by Wayward Son
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It would be interesting to see the cost/profit of Supernatural vs. other CW shows. The cast is smaller but J2 have been around for over a decade so I'm sure their paychecks are substantial (by CW standards). But AFAIK they're still one of the most popular shows on Netflix and TNT airs 3-4 episodes every weekday so it must be doing well there as well. And I think their dvd sales are decent.

My guess is that unless the show's ratings start dropping quickly and steeply, they're gonna reach their goal of 300 episodes. CW knows that the fanbase is loyal and they haven't had great luck with new shows lately.

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2 hours ago, coppersin said:

It would be interesting to see the cost/profit of Supernatural vs. other CW shows. The cast is smaller but J2 have been around for over a decade so I'm sure their paychecks are substantial (by CW standards). But AFAIK they're still one of the most popular shows on Netflix and TNT airs 3-4 episodes every weekday so it must be doing well there as well. And I think their dvd sales are decent.

My guess is that unless the show's ratings start dropping quickly and steeply, they're gonna reach their goal of 300 episodes. CW knows that the fanbase is loyal and they haven't had great luck with new shows lately.

From what I can gather Jensen makes $175,000 per episode and Jared makes $125,000. Misha is said to make $50,000 although sites seem to vary so I'd be wary of taking that figure too seriously. I've never seen a figure released for Mark, but I'd assume it must be something similar to Misha. J2 salaries have grown significantly larger from multiple renegotiation over the years. This is shown by the fact that based on a google search most of the leads on other CW shows are earning $40,000 - $50,000 per episode so the money saved from having only two leads may not actually be as much as we think. Since between them Jared and Jensen earn $300,000 per episode, which would be enough to fund six leads of other shows who were given the starting salary of $50,000 per episode. 

Edited by Wayward Son
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1 hour ago, Wayward Son said:

From what I can gather Jensen makes $175,000 per episode and Jared makes $125,000. Misha is said to make $50,000 although sites seem to vary so I'd be wary of taking that figure too seriously. I've never seen a figure released for Mark, but I'd assume it must be something similar to Misha. J2 salaries have grown significantly larger from multiple renegotiation over the years. This is shown by the fact that based on a google search most of the leads on other CW shows are earning $40,000 - $50,000 per episode so the money saved from having only two leads may not actually be as much as we think. Since between them Jared and Jensen earn $300,000 per episode, which would be enough to fund six leads of other shows who were given the starting salary of $50,000 per episode. 

There was some discussion of salaries on another thread, maybe media or social media? . From everything I've seen J2 earn  the same amount per episode. Jensen earns additional salary for the episodes he directs. No clue about M2 salaries. Buy I'm thinking probably closer to 75 to 100K per episode given they are not in every episode.

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15 minutes ago, catrox14 said:

There was some discussion of salaries on another thread, maybe media or social media? . From everything I've seen J2 earn  the same amount per episode. Jensen earns additional salary for the episodes he directs. No clue about M2 salaries. Buy I'm thinking probably closer to 75 to 100K per episode given they are not in every episode.

I'll have to see if I can find those posts :) . I always thought they earned the same as well, but several sites seem to agree Jensen gets paid more than Jared. It could be because he does additional duties like directing, or it could be his agent got a better deal because of the fact he's been said to turn down more work for the shows sake than Jared. For instance Marvel are said to have approached him on several occasions. 

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1 minute ago, Wayward Son said:

I'll have to see if I can find those posts :) . I always thought they earned the same as well, but several sites seem to agree Jensen gets paid more than Jared. It could be because he does additional duties like directing, or it could be his agent got a better deal because of the fact he's been said to turn down more work for the shows sake than Jared. For instance Marvel are said to have approached him on several occasions. 

Jensen may very well earn more overall because of the eps he directs, but as far as per episode salary I think it's always been that he and Jared earn the same which kind of makes sense so there are  no issues between the costars based on money. It's like how the "Friends" cast all earned the same.

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33 minutes ago, Pondlass1 said:

I thought they both earned $175K per episode, but I may be wrong.

 

49 minutes ago, catrox14 said:

Jensen may very well earn more overall because of the eps he directs, but as far as per episode salary I think it's always been that he and Jared earn the same which kind of makes sense so there are  no issues between the costars based on money. It's like how the "Friends" cast all earned the same.

It could very well be! Honestly, I always thought they earned the same as well. It was some results in google that seem to suggest otherwise. 

Assuming they both earn earn $175,000 that makes it $350,000 between them. That just further illustrates the fact that the CW no longer saves money from the show having only two leads since their long service has made them very expensive by CW standards. 

By contrast Stephen Amell from Arrow is said to make $50,000 per episode (he initially earned $30,000). That means between them J2 roughly cost the same as seven leads for another show. 

Not that I begrudge them their high earnings. They've certainly earnt it from starring in the networks oldest show by far. I'm just pointing out that, from a business perspective,  if ratings slipped and the shows renewal was called into question the casts pay definitely wouldn't be a factor that would make them consider renewal. If anything Jared and Jensen would possibly have to accept a pay cut to keep the show on the air. 

Edited by Wayward Son
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24 minutes ago, Wayward Son said:

 

It could very well be! Honestly, I always thought they earned the same as well. It was some results in google that seem to suggest otherwise. 

Assuming they both earn earn $175,000 that makes it $350,000 between them. That just further illustrates the fact that the CW no longer saves money from the show having only two leads since their long service has made them very expensive by CW standards. 

By contrast Stephen Amell from Arrow is said to make $50,000 per episode (he initially earned $30,000). That means between them J2 roughly cost the same as seven leads for another show. 

Not that I begrudge them their high earnings. They've certainly earnt it from starring in the networks oldest show by far. I'm just pointing out that, from a business perspective,  if ratings slipped and the shows renewal was called into question the casts pay definitely wouldn't be a factor that would make them consider renewal. If anything Jared and Jensen would possibly have to accept a pay cut to keep the show on the air. 

For all we know they may have already made those concessions to keep it on the air now.  Maybe they have traded salary for time off.

You might find of interest an article I linked in the media thread that discusses how much money the show earns for Vancouver.

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