S29: Speculation Without Spoilers

[choclatechip45]

 

They have shown Jon and Jaclyn wondering if they could trust Baylor multiple times during this season. That tells me that this is going to come into play later this season and if I had to guess it means that they shouldn't have trusted her and they will get voted out because of it. If I had to guess right now I think Jermey might be the winner with possibly Natalie and Baylor being the other two in the F3.

I feel like Natalie's final tribal council will be absolutely  hilarious if she decides to have no filter!

[peachmangosteen]

Probst said in his EW interview that there's an actual new challenge next week. WOW!

 

Next week features a brand new challenge – something we’ve never done before that I think people will get a kick out of it. There’s a clue in that answer.

So, it has to do with kicking. Doesn't sound particularity promising, but hey, at least it's new.

[KimberStormer]

I have to say I'm excited by the prospect of Reed stirring shit up.  I love watching a good scramble.

[ByaNose]

Apprently, Reid was a drama queen & trouble maker (can't recall who said it) from the beginning. Granted, none of this shown at all so I'll be curious if he brings some needed drama to this season.

[peachmangosteen]

Yea, I'm excited to see the trouble maker side of Reed. Now that we know he's gonna be doing that I'm more surprised that they never showed any of it at the beginning. The editing is weird this season.

Edited November 15, 2014 by peachmangosteen

[Lantern7]

Here's the new challenge . . . Jeff seems a little too excited about it . . .

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2TeIphRg5TE&list=UUVW1RiWXTQL-G-3KcoRy-_g&index=1

Hopefully, things will pick up soon. I'd hate to be sleepwalking to the finale.

[riley702]

Tarzan?!? A call-back to Tarzan? LOL

[choclatechip45]

 

Apprently, Reid was a drama queen & trouble maker (can't recall who said it) from the beginning. Granted, none of this shown at all so I'll be curious if he brings some needed drama to this season.

Kelly & Drew both said it their exit interviews.

[Cutty]

Every boot has been so negative about Missy and Baylor in their exit interviews that I'm finding it hard to believe one (or both) of them don't make it to the end. 

 

Then again I've been wrong about everything this season so might as well add this to the pile.

[choclatechip45]

 

Every boot has been so negative about Missy and Baylor in their exit interviews that I'm finding it hard to believe one (or both) of them don't make it to the end.

I agree, but I think Baylor makes it to the end and looses. Even the original Coyopa were pretty negative about Baylor.

[Lantern7]

Two thoughts on next week's episode(s):

 

1. Any reason why we're going with two hours? I'm screwed, because I'll have to rearrange my TV and posting schedules in order to watch that and Arrow. Is this going to be "A Very Special Survivor"?

 

2. Oh, it's the Vote On Who Pisses You Off And Potentially Trap Yourself challenge! It's been too long since we've seen that. Personally, if I'm in a majority alliance and want to lay low, I'd "spread the love" and insist my friends do that as well.

[peachmangosteen]

They're just showing 2 episodes next week. It's not one 2-hour episode. It seems like somehow they got the scheduling wrong and realized they don't have as many weeks left as they have episodes.

 

I'm excited for the return of that challenge!

 

This is from the episode description for next week:

 

Also, for the first time ever, castaways give up their chance at Reward in the middle of a challenge.

 

What is up with these guys and giving up reward?!

Edited November 27, 2014 by peachmangosteen

[ByaNose]

The pecking order challenge is always a good one. It really shows us (and, them) who is hated, liked & who is the most annoying.LOL!! Remember Courtney from Exile Island. Hysterical!!! The preview scenes show Reed calling out Baylor & Mama Bear reaming him out. It will be interesting to see what the cause is. As for, the 2 hours I think they always knew their premiere date was. Some other shows had been cancelled and I guess they needed to double up. I always do feel bad for the 2 contestants because they have to share their exit interview time.

[NutMeg]

Usually we have two TC in a one hour format, so that gives me hope that these will be good episodes, if they didn't feel the need to reduce them to one hour top (when condensed in one hour, it's usually expected/logical/boring eliminations, such as Pagonging, isn't it?)

[Wings]

That video no longer works (private).  Can someone tell me what the challenge is, please?  

 

I am rooting for Natalie and have been all along.  I like her.  From a psychology stand point she is good bet for an alliance.  She is strong and confident, both qualities that draw people in.  Even though you can't trust anyone, when she is with you, you know it or should be able to read her if paying attention.  When she gets excited about a plan she is very verbal so if she talks a lot with you about a good plan she is genuine.  Watch out when she agrees without enthusiasm.  

 

I love the absence of spoilers this season. It opens up strategy discussions and speculation.  The threads are pretty dull when we know the boot order.   

[peachmangosteen]

That video no longer works (private).  Can someone tell me what the challenge is, please?  

 

It's from last week's all new challenge, the one where you had to use your feet to build the tower thing.

[Wings]

Thanks.  I liked that challenge.  Any of them that have a level  playing field I enjoy.  One could say those with small feet have an advantage, of course, but that is splitting hairs.  

[Mrsmom]

So I think I've figured out how they get down to three, based on this weeks "On the next Survivor"...

 

- Missy gets hurt and she's out (not a spoiler I'm just guessing)

- They still have tribal council - another one out

- Finale is on the 17th - one more tribal council - another one out, which leave 3 to battle it out.

- Reunion 

[Special K]

In the preview, the medic seems to be saying, "if we decide to do an x-ray, I'll have to pull her [presumably Missy] from the game."  So it seems someone suffers an injury that is not a clear-cut med-evac, and she has to make a decision about whether to treat it or just suck it up.  That's my speculation.  She was crying while saying something like "I'm so frustrated" -- not overtly tears of physical pain, but more despair.  Of course since Missy and Baylor are one, it could be that Baylor is the injured one.

 

Seems like people have endured orthopedic injuries in the past without leaving the game.  Didn't Abi-Marie have a sprained ankle or something?

[Wings]

It is Missy who is injured and I doubt she leaves. Even if she broke her wrist or collar bone there are only 6 or 7 days left, she can take care of in the states. 

[Special K]

Yeah.  Some bone breaks they don't really do much for anyway, except maybe stabilization.

 

ETA:  Maybe they were setting up a martyr arc for her when they showed that bit where she talked about being so sleep deprived and depleted, and Baylor said she wished she could give her some of her youthful energy and strength.  Perhaps it foreshadowed a role reversal for those two?

Edited December 4, 2014 by Special K

[LanceM]

Yeah.  Some bone breaks they don't really do much for anyway, except maybe stabilization.

 

ETA:  Maybe they were setting up a martyr arc for her when they showed that bit where she talked about being so sleep deprived and depleted, and Baylor said she wished she could give her some of her youthful energy and strength.  Perhaps it foreshadowed a role reversal for those two?

 

I think you may be onto something especially given the last few episodes where we have seen Baylor starting to play her own game and not including her Mom in her plans (keeping Natalie's idol a secret, not telling her about blindsiding Jon)

 

Jeff Probst had a very interesting comment on Baylor today in EW that caught my eye as she is usually the type of player that Jeff would trash.

 

http://insidetv.ew.com/2014/12/04/survivor-jeff-probst-san-juan-del-sur-episode-11/

 

Well, that’s a better question for them because their strategy is just that — theirs. I really can’t comment on what they’re thinking but I will say this — I think Natalie is playing a very aggressive game and making a lot of moves and I think Baylor is doing a very good job of staying just close enough to her to be able to claim some credit, but not so close to get burned.

Edited December 5, 2014 by LanceM

[Misty79]

What are people's thoughts on whether we have a final two or three this season? 

[peachmangosteen]

I'm kinda excited about the terrible editing this season because I honestly have no clue who is going to win. I think a case could be made in the edit for any of them winning, or for why any of them lose.

 

If I had to speculate, I think there will be a Missy/Baylor/Natalie F3 or a Natalie/Baylor F2 with Natalie winning either way.

 

But I still can't shake the feeling that there might be a Jon/Jaclyn F2 with Jon winning. Jon has gotten at least 3 segments on his father and at least 3 on Jaclyn's condition. He gets to talk about Jaclyn's condition more than she does. But then he's also getting the "thinks he's in control when he so isn't" edit, too, so I don't know.

[Cutty]

There usually are 5 left in the finale -- or another way to look at it, 2 voted off during the finale. So unless Missy is medevaced and they vote another off, I don't see how this won't be a final 3.

Edited December 8, 2014 by Cutty

[Lantern7]

So . . . who ya got winning? For the heck of it, I have Natalie beating Missy & Baylor. I also figure that Probst has his work cut out for him at the reunion, because we're not dealing with a great cast. Minimum, Dale and Kelley will be ignored, while we get a "Rocker isn't that bad, you guys!" segment.

[LanceM]

Maybe Jeff will let Baylor sing at the reunion. I mean after all he let Chase Rice sing at the Nicaragua reunion. 

 

oh wait Chase is a guy, nevermind.

Edited December 11, 2014 by LanceM

[Cutty]

I'd pick Natalie over Missy and Baylor as well. The only way I don't see that being the F3 is if Keith or Jaclyn (whichever one is left) wins immunity at F4. 

 

I wonder if they will make F4 immunity something Missy can do. That IC is usually something physically demanding but not always. IIRC, Malcolm's first season it was balance a ball on a stick type thing, and he totally BOMBED it. 

[cooksdelight]

They can't change the immunity challenges at this point, to suit Missy's injury. They are all pre-built, pre-planned. Besides, if they did that, you'd have more people pulling up lame in the future, figuring they could glide on through. I hope it wasn't something permanent that bothers her for years, as a bad sprain can sometimes do.

[pennben]

I've always heard about the show reordering challenges to fit certain players if they want to shift the game, but that is just gossip.  Also, Andy Dehnhart (twitter handle:  realityblurred) tweeted tonight that the contract for Survivor says you are out if you can't participate in a challenge, but that didn't happen here.  He was citing a contract from 2010, so who knows if it is the same.

 

On the one hand, sure, I'll let you stay if you are one less threat to getting immunity; on the other, if it is a blood v. water season, why should I let you stay for a vote or two only to have you decide to medically evacuate later  at a point when it is advantageous to your other family member? 

 

I don't know at all, lots of motivations at conflict here.

[cooksdelight]

the contract for Survivor says you are out if you can't participate in a challenge, but that didn't happen here.

I don't think that's true, based on the fact Abi Maria tore her ACL on the first challenge and had to sit them all out, when she could, until she won the immunity necklace as they were down to 6 or 7. They may have Missy compete, but finish dead last, if she's able to. But I agree, if she's badly hurt, she should be out of the game, for her health's sake if nothing else.

[pennben]

You are likely right.  He was citing an old contract, so I didn't really feel like paging through it all. 

[peachmangosteen]

I think Natalie is the winner. The only other scenario I see if Missy/Baylor betraying Natalie and therefore Keith ends up in the F3 and wins.

 

Which is why I really think Natalie should be trying to get Keith out next. He's really the only person standing in the way of her winning, plus he's the biggest immunity threat left besides herself. 

 

ETA: I don't know if this really belongs here, but there was some talk of Missy's injury and the contract, so it sorta goes along with that. Probst said in EW that if this would've happened earlier in that game then they would've pulled Missy. He also said they don't have a hard fast rule about injuries. 

Edited December 11, 2014 by peachmangosteen

[ProfCrash]

From what Probst has said and what Rob C and Stephen said in their podcast, medical intervention is not unusual and they will only pull a player if they feel that the issue could be life threatening or quickly become life threatening. James was pulled because he had an infected cut that could make it into his blood stream. Jeff flat out said that if this injury had happened earlier in the season Missy would have been pulled but since it happened at the end of the season and the Doctor said it was not life threatening, they let her stay. Stephen talked about getting IV antibiotics in his season on Rob Has a Podcast and how JT was being treated for a staph infection. It sounds like medical is there to keep people in the game as long as safely possible.

 

Natalie or Keith are going to win this thing. Natalie will make it to the final four, she has immunity and would be crazy to not play it next week. If the others are smart, they will vote her out if she does not win final four immunity.

 

So here is how I see it play out.

 

If Keith wins immunity, Natalie plays her, Jaclyn goes home. I think Natalie and Keith are well aware of the fact that Baylor and Missy are goats. Jaclyn is probably a goat but she is an entitled pain in the ass and will be annoying enough to get voted out. If anyone other then Keith wins immunity, Keith goes home. He has allies on the jury that the others do not share and that will scare them.

 

Final four, I think the only way Jaclyn/Keith stays is if they wins immunity. I think that Missy was serious about the final three with Baylor and Natalie and I don't see Baylor voting for Natalie. If Keith/Jaclyn win immunity, I think Natalie goes home. Missy will not vote Baylor. Natalie will rally for a Missy vote but even Keith will see that Natalie is a bigger threat to win it all and I can't see Baylor voting for her Mom. Natalie is gone.

 

Natalie in the final = Natalie wins

 

Keith wins if he is in the final and Natalie is not

 

No idea who wins in the worst case scenario, Jaclyn, Missy, Baylor.

[peachmangosteen]

No idea who wins in the worst case scenario, Jaclyn, Missy, Baylor.

 

I almost want this to happen just because I really do not know who would win that. It would be unpredictable, which I find fun. Plus, I'm not super opposed to any of them winning anyway.

 

But I literally see no way of it happening unless Jaclyn wins every immunity from now until the end and even then I don't see it.

[LanceM]

That is not a worst case scenario at all because if that we're to happen it means that at least one person in that final 3 recognized Nat and Keith as the biggest jury threats and then executed a plan to vote them both out. I'd love to see it happen, the perceived goats teaming up and making the final 3. Good stuff.

[Tryangle]

So . . . who ya got winning? For the heck of it, I have Natalie beating Missy & Baylor. I also figure that Probst has his work cut out for him at the reunion, because we're not dealing with a great cast. Minimum, Dale and Kelley will be ignored, while we get a "Rocker isn't that bad, you guys!" segment.

 

I'll also add Alec to the "Ignored" speculation list. Drew a slight chance of a Q because he engineered the throwing of a challenge. Val may get shafted if Probst overindulges Josh, Reed and John.

[ProfCrash]

Natalie for the win.

 

The list of people ignored is going to be massive. Dale and Kelly 100%. I wouldn't be surprised if Alec and Drew are ignored but they might talk to them because of the Neanderthal stuff. Val will be ignored

[choclatechip45]

I wouldn't mind if they ignore Dale & Kelly if twitter is any indication they are still bitter. I imagine it must suck going out pre-jury, but seriously being bitter won't help the situation. Also, I saw on Twitter Eliza said they all get checked by medical before & after each challenge.

[LanceM]

http://www.survivorfever.net/vc_s29_ep14_12_13.html

 

Let the speculation begin, who will be the final blindside victim?

 

I am thinking it has to be one of Natalie, Baylor and Missy and since I see no reason why to vote out Baylor at this point I am going to guess it is Natalie or Missy.

 

Though it watch it be something lame like voting out Keith.

[txvoodoo]

That's a weird word to use for the finale, when only 1 person will emerge victorious. I imagine at this point you go into every TC thinking there's a good chance you could go because, well, Survivor!

[Lantern7]

Scattered thoughts about what I'm expecting at the Reunion:

 

Precious little time with the winner. We have four women and an older man known for his spitting vying for the $1 million. No way does Probst spend much time with the winner. If Natalie wins, Probst probably won't ask her and Nadiya about The Amazing Race.

 

Lots of Twitter filler. Probst sent up a video asking for submissions about what the show means to viewers. He will go back to that well again and again.

 

John Rocker: Not a bad guy. I'd be surprised if he gets less than five minutes. It might be one of the few times we get to see the Twinnies get to talk, since -- IIRC -- they said he was cool. Oh, and Julie gets ignored by herself, because she's a filthy, filthy quitter. She'll talk about how she's not a nutjob for liking John, but we won't get any questions about her.

 

The contestants will be separated into couples, like the original BvW. All the better for Probst to ignore, say, Dale & Kelley. I also figure he'll pass on Val and Drew. I'm putting the over/under on passed over contestants at 4 1/2. If I recall correctly, the only person ignored in BvW1 was Gervase's niece . . . but since this season mostly stunk, Probst is probably going to skip a lot of people.

 

Cochran will show up begging for a job now that The Millers has been canceled. Just kidding . . . but could you imagine?

 

And I'm going to go with Natalie getting the big check on Wednesday. Go, Twinnie!

[Maverick]

To be honest, I don't have a problem with Drew and Kelly being ignored.

[peachmangosteen]

I don't really either, but I'd rather spent like 5 seconds with them (well, maybe not Dale) than any amount of time with John Rocker, Josh, or Reed.

[Lingo]

How about Speculation about what the theme of S30 will be?  Or am I the only person who doesn't know at this point?  I assume it will be another All-Stars, but I don't know if it will be, like, "Heroes Vs. Villains II", or some new angle. I'd be surprised if it's an all-winner edition -- Probst always says there's not enough interesting characters in that bunch.

[Lantern7]

Preview of the finalist montage from the opening credits. Warning: epic slo-mo loogie hocking! And is it bad that I still can't remember which Twinnie is which?

 

ETA: Natalie: Left nostril piercing. Gotta remind myself of that . . . though I'm hoping she makes F3, and Nadiya fills her place at the reading of the votes. Aside from the most eagle-eyed viewers, who would notice?

[cooksdelight]

I don't think 30 is going to be All-Stars. Abi would have told me, I think.