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Ratings and Scheduling: Who's the fairest of them all?


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Those set regulars don't know anything. They are just random people who obsessively hang out at filming locations and post about it on the internet to get attention. Actors are not gonna discuss their contract details and financial arrangements with set gawkers.

 

7-year contracts are industry standard and have been for some time. The acting opportunities for b- and c-list actors are not what they used to be. That makes contract negotiations easier for the networks. It is doubtful that any of the cast members could do better by leaving the show and the nice steady paycheck that comes with it. People keep claiming Robert Carlyle has a 5-year contract but no one knows for sure and he ain't talking. It is all rumor based on one bit of speculation in a Variety article that appeared years ago. He made no bones about it that he got into American TV for the money because there was not enough work for him in Britain to support his family. He probably earns more money per episode now than he can earn in an entire year in British film/TV. Where else is he gonna go and what else is he gonna do to maintain the higher standard of living they have become accustomed to these past 6 years? This show gave his flagging career a much needed boost.

 

All the doom and gloom on these threads notwithstanding, the show is doing really well. It is holding steady in the live +7 ratings and doing well internationally and in the target demographic that abc is aiming for. Paul Lee loves the show and is happy with how it is performing. In the end his opinion is the one that counts.

  • Love 6
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From the Fandom thread:

But if I read the ratings correctly, 3A lost more viewers than 3B.

 

Actually, ratings plunged A LOT in 2B (and the fan/critical reaction was also pretty bad). After "The Outsider", 18-49 share (which is the only thing that matters, don't look at viewer number) was down -0.4. and then -0.2 after "In the Name of the Brother". After that, it was 2.0-2.2, rising to 2.3 for the finale. Season 3 started with 2.6 for both the premiere and "Lost Girl", which is a noticeable increase. After that, both the quality and the ratings started to go down a bit, but until "Think Lovely Thoughts" it was on par with the latter half of 2B, and "Going Home" was rated higher than season 2 finale.

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I was comparing 3A to 3B specifically because 3A did a lot of the things that it seems like many people, including me, want A&E to do again whereas 3B seems to be considered more poorly written, yet 3B held onto its viewers better. 

 

2B was just bad, so there's no mystery why it shed viewers--it deserved to!

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(edited)

I was comparing 3A to 3B specifically because 3A did a lot of the things that it seems like many people, including me, want A&E to do again whereas 3B seems to be considered more poorly written, yet 3B held onto its viewers better.

2B was just bad, so there's no mystery why it shed viewers--it deserved to!

3B didn't actually hold onto its viewers any better or worse than 3A (especially when considering the total numbers when combined with DVR; it was remarkably steady throughout Season 3), it had several similarly big drop periods in it as well. Note the similarities below.

3A

1. 8.52

2. - 0.52

3. - 0.47

4. - 0.48

5. + 0.18

6. + 0.32

7. - 0.84

8. - 0.05

9. - 0.02

10. + 0.30

11. - 0.50

3B

12. 7.66

13. + 0.09

14. - 0.84

15. - 0.27

16. + 0.62

17. - 0.76

18. - 0.55

19. + 1.39

20. - 0.48

21/22. - 0.06

Edited by Mathius
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Season 3A averaged a 2.19 demo and 7.20 milion viewers.

Season 3B averaged a 2.18 demo and 6.95 million viewers.

 

So while season 3 was generally steady in the demo throughout the season, 3B shed more viewers.

Edited by FabulousTater
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I'm not stating this as a fact or anything, but don't most shows usually have lower ratings in the spring half of their seasons? Looking it up, I noticed that often with Desperate Housewives, Ugly Betty, Glee, Lost, etc. My guess is 3B would've lost as much ground as 4B has, but it was promoted much more strongly than 4B has been. To me, that seems like a natural ebb and flow aspect of TV series after they've peaked ratings-wise, except in cases of serious drops obviously related to what's happening on screen (like backlash to the post-Cora part of season 2). Comparing 3B and 4B tells me that Once benefits from strong promotion. The downside for the show is there aren't many aces left they could delve into that would draw viewers in like Peter Pan, The Wizard of Oz or Frozen/The Snow Queen. I'm not sure Arthurian or Greek mythology, for instance, would be as successful with promotion because they don't really gel with the perception of this being a "fairy tale" show. (I'm thinking Wonderland and Ursula/The Little Mermaid could've been successful as half-seasons in that regard; the latter especially could've allowed them to rope in mythological characters like Hades, Athena, etc. if they had an interest in them at the same time.)

Edited by TheGreenKnight
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Daylight saving time has a huge impact on all the 8:00 pm shows. Families extend their Sunday afternoon activities into the evening and the recreational outdoor sports start up (after-work golf, soccer and softball leagues, kids sports).

 

Just looking at the published statistics and comparing ratings out of context doesn't begin to give the whole picture. In the fall you need to look at the impact of the football and world series schedule. In winter it is the awards shows and the Olympics, if applicable. And, of course, there is the weather. Unseasonably warm weather will affect the ratings in a market if everyone decides to stay outdoors. A catastrophic event such as an earthquake, major terrorist attack or violent political upheaval will also affect ratings because people are more interested in following the news than watching fluff TV.

 

All shows lose some viewers as they age. How viable a show is also depends on whether the network owns the show itself or it is owned by an outside organization. A network gets no foreign or syndication revenue from a show it does not own. That flows into the renewable decision.

  • Love 2
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Season 3A averaged a 2.19 demo and 7.20 milion viewers.

Season 3B averaged a 2.18 demo and 6.95 million viewers.

 

So while season 3 was generally steady in the demo throughout the season, 3B shed more viewers.

Intersting. May I see the sources, and the averages for the other half seasons of the show?

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Even with the ratings the way they are, I don't think ABC would cancel OUAT at all. They are just working out few things before renewal is announce. JMO

Yeah, season 5 is a sure thing. Season 6 is what we were doubting, at least myself.

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I would be happy with season 5 being the last as long as they know going in. The network should make sure they know before they plan out the season if it will be the last.

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The thing I keep going back to is this Cancellation Bear graphic from TVbytheNumbers. Once is easily in the "to be renewed" group, which is why I think that at least another two seasons are possible. Things can change of course -- look no further than Revenge as an example [especially because it debuted the same year as Once]. But the numbers are pretty good for a show that's been on this long. The only other "sure thing" dramas are Scandal, Grey's and How to Get Away -- all Shondra shows and all but one have multi-season runs. So as much as we fret about ratings, Once is in really good company and I could easily see them getting a sixth season if they don't mess up next year. Of course, we saw what happened with season 2 so it is possible but based on what we know now, it's definitely possible.

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Intersting. May I see the sources, and the averages for the other half seasons of the show?

If you go back to the very first page of this thread I posted the ratings info for season 3 back then (here's the link to my forum post and here's a link to the post I got that info from).

 

That info came from a tumblr post that sourced tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com. You can dig through tvbythenumbers' website and find the sunday ratings posts to verify that information, which is what I did at the time because I like to verify.

 

For information on other seasons feel free to go through tvbythenumbers ratings posts archive for when OUAT aired and compile it yourself, or if you can also visit seriesmonitor.com which also has a comprehensive list of ratings tables and charts for the show. But FYI - seriesmonitor.com doesn't get their ratings info directly from Nielsen and instead, like most everyone else, they compile their information from various sources, one of which is tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com.

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Although I doubt Revenge is going to survive much longer. It's about to get axed and for good reason. Of course, this means that Once will be the only ABC show returning to Sunday so again, that gives it an extra boost to stay on the air longer.

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Am I wrong in thinking that--provided that ratings seem reasonably stable--season 6 might come down to who's interested in a season 6 contract?  There have to be at least a couple of performers that are not interested in continuing, or would like time for more . . . intellectually stimulating . . . projects.

 

I know Carlyle's name comes up frequently in the thread about that, but Morrison seems to be very busy, too.

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I can. They have a good, predictable, steady gig with Once (and if ABC wanted to extend their contracts, they'd all be getting a pay rise to boot, and some of them might have a bit of leeway in negotiating more preferable conditions). Giving that up means going back to uncertainty, endless auditions, and pilots that don't get picked up. Any other network TV series they joined would ask the same hours, the same amount of time spent doing press (if not more, really, for a new show), and could just as easily be shooting in Vancouver or some other non-Hollywood location. None of them are such big stars that they'll be beating off offers with a stick. 

Edited by retrograde
  • Love 6
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Yes. Josh and Ginny have a cushy job where they get to be together, in the same city all the time while their kid is young. No way they find anything like that again. Colin also has a young kid and needs to be sedentary (and, you know, pay for college), not to mention I bet his contract expires a year later. JMo wants to direct and the best way to do this is keep earning that Disney money for a while (since she'd have to finance her own projects) and do short films during hiatus. Lana is in a relevant role for the first time in her life and it took until mid-30s, she wouldn't be smart to give it up.

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I also just haven't seen any indication any of them are unhappy. Perhaps Robert Carlysle is not entirely creatively fulfilled, but then he did choose to go into American network TV. He's never said he's bored though -- people just assume. And he doesn't seem miserable. Once isn't Shakespeare but they could all do a lot worse -- for every Good Wife and Mad Men, there are ten tired procedurals and bad sitcoms. Hell, Patricia Arquette just won an Oscar, and she is still stuck doing another CSI.

Edited by retrograde
  • Love 2
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It seems that Hollywood is difficult for everyone these days.  I mean movie stars are now doing primetime (Halle Berry for instance, Viola Davis, Ryan Philipe who hasn't done anything in I don't know how long) and the guys we're used to seeing on primetime are doing soaps.  Seems like there's a shift that has been happening over the last 3-5 years now.  

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I don't know that the shifts are because things are difficult but rather because TV has lost a lot of its stigma. It used to be that there were "movie" actors and "TV" actors, and if you were a "TV" actor you wanted to do movies, but once you made it in movies, TV was a step downward. In recent years, the attitude has changed. People are recognizing that there's some really good writing happening for TV, and for an actor it allows the opportunity to really dig into a character and develop that character over the long term. TV work also provides some lifestyle benefits, like steady work in the same place over a long period (good for those with kids), it's like working with a repertory company since you get to stick with the same people for years, and then you develop a devoted fan base that you can later bring with you to other projects. It's getting to be more like British actors are, where people are just actors who might work on stage, on TV or in movies, with no distinction among the three, and you might win a major acting award for film or stage and then play a Doctor Who guest villain and no one considers that to be "slumming." But then that means if TV is becoming more appealing to big-name movie actors, they're taking the roles that the designated "TV" actors used to get.

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I feel like Carlyle hasn't been 100% into his role these days. However, he has mentioned that he is happy to finally have job security. So, I think he would be willing to extend his contract. Same with most of the main cast. As for Emilie de Ravin, she might be tired of being unconscious in every other scene. However, I rather doubt her stint in OUAT is opening up job prospects for her. 

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I suppose to us viewers, the writing is really bad, but to an actor, it might not be as big a deal.  If they like their character, they may be disappointed, but the job still provides a lot of variety, and even if in the bigger picture, the emotional moments have become completely unearned, out of nowhere and WTF, the actors still get to play certain theatrics that require some acting chops. 

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deRavin has been doing TV since she was basically a teenager, or could pass for one (Roswell) and she's yet to be cast as a lead. She had three regular jobs, on Roswell (she was hated so much, they had to make her a bad guy and write her off - not her fault, and I liked her), Lost (she was generally liked, but she was never featured much) and now Once (she's finally playing a generally beloved character, even if not on screen much) - would she really risk alienating her fanbase by refusing to re-sign and then go back to doing auditions? Also, whatever the standard Once contract is, hers would be expiring a year later, since she only signed up for S2.

 

The usual Vulture guy posted L+7 ratings: Once is #5 with 2.9. L+7 is kinda meaningless, I guess, but as a comparing it's interesting. 

Edited by Serena
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The usual Vulture guy posted L+7 ratings: Once is #5 with 2.9. L+7 is kinda meaningless, I guess, but as a comparing it's interesting. 

 

Are those the L+7 ratings for "Enter the Dragon" (aired 3/15) or "Poor Unfortunate Souls" (aired 3/22)?

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Since he says "week of 3/16", I'm gonna assume he meant "week starting with 3/16", so that would mean Poor Unfortunate Soul. He seems to be counting with the week starting from Monday, like a sane person (sorry. I don't get weeks starting with Sunday! Makes no sense to me). 

Do we have L+7 of the other 4B episodes?

Edited by Serena
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I think it's a bit of an open question as to whether some of the cast members would re-sign versus leave and pursue other projects. On the one hand, yeah, Once is a steady gig and still a relative hit, and a bird in the hand and all that. On the other, several of the actors were established before the show and still have other stuff going, and if they're unhappy enough on Once (which could also include non-show-related stuff like living in Vancouver as opposed to LA and goodness only knows what else), they might decide to bow out when their contracts are up.

 

My guess would be that staying is a no-brainer for Parrilla, de Ravin, O'Donoghue, and Gilmore. Just as clearly, Carlyle wants off ASAP. It would be a harder call for JMo, who has a lot of projects going on, but being the (theoretical) lead in a hit show would probably trump everything else, so I would guess she would re-sign if the show went past the actors' initial contracts.

 

For me, the wild cards are actually Goodwin and Dallas. On the one hand, ITA that they're never going to find a gig together like this again, and they made decide that that trumps everything. OTOH, they already have one young child and clearly want more kids, and they may feel that having another baby or two is just impossible while still doing the show and also that they don't want to wait indefinitely to have #2 until the show ends; they may also want to raise the kid(s) in LA, not Vancouver. Also, frankly, Snow and Charming are so clearly wallpaper these days that they may decide it's not worth having to go act for 12 hours a day while getting like one line when they could be at home with baby Oliver. But on the OTHER other hand, no matter how marginalized the characters may be, it's hard for me to imagine Disney or ABC NOT thinking that losing Snow White and Prince Charming would be a major blow--I have to think there are several regulars they'd rather cut before those two if it's a money thing--so G&D might be able to negotiate a pay raise that would make it really impossible for them to leave. It's hard to know. I think it really depends on how badly they want to have more kids, and if they feel strongly about when they want to have these theoretical kids.

Edited by stealinghome
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Since he says "week of 3/16", I'm gonna assume he meant "week starting with 3/16", so that would mean Poor Unfortunate Soul.

 

That's what I thought, but I wasn't sure.

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I could see Colin wanting to get back to Ireland -- or at least working in London, which is a lot closer to his family than Vancouver. There's no way we can tell what the actors' priorities are, of course, be it job stability or varied creative outlets.

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I could see Colin wanting to get back to Ireland -- or at least working in London, which is a lot closer to his family than Vancouver. There's no way we can tell what the actors' priorities are, of course, be it job stability or varied creative outlets.

The cool thing about being in Vancouver or in Toronto or in Montreal (especially Montreal if you're European) is that you really don't feel out of place.  They are big cities where you can just get lost and there's tons of things to do (same can be said about any North American city).

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TV has lost a lot of its stigma.

 

That's all due to the boom of cable tv. That's where all the so-called "prestige" projects, critically acclaimed, or A-listers pet projects are. Even the most popular shows are now on cable, see Walking Dead. You don't get that on network, outside of comedies. Or just look at the awards show to see the industry's darlings. It's something like 80% cable stuff nominated to network. In a few years, the online shows will take off too. Network is a dinosaur.

 

I honestly don't see Robert sticking around. He's clearly checked out. I see it in his interactions with the trio vs Ingrid.

 

 

For example JMo, who has been doing some producing and directing on the side might be offered a shot at directing an episode or two. Same with Carlyle should he be interested in that sort of thing.

The directing thing might be the only incentive to Robert. Jen said in an interview she's getting ready to direct her first feature with Anthony Tambakis. Is that possible during the hiatus? That's the only thing that gives me pause. I know Robert did it last year with Barney but he has way a lighter filming schedule than she does.

 

Anyway Once can "survive" one or 2 or even all of them leaving. They just need a reboot or do another spin-off. A 1.0 in 18-49 demos, which is what Wonderland was getting, won't hack it on Thursdays but maybe they'll take it for Sundays.

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I disagree about broadcast and cable. In this last year, broadcast has launched How To Get Away, Empire, Jane The Virgin (small audience but critical success), those are all dramas. There are lots of opportunities in broadcast and it pays way better. Cable is notoriously stingy with actor salaries.

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Anyway Once can "survive" one or 2 or even all of them leaving. They just need a reboot or do another spin-off. A 1.0 in 18-49 demos, which is what Wonderland was getting, won't hack it on Thursdays but maybe they'll take it for Sundays.

I am skeptical that ABC would, though. Getting a 1.0 in the 8pm time slot on Sunday would be rather bad--Revenge has been getting around a 1.0 in the 10pm slot and everyone is mentioning it as cancellation fodder, and if The Good Wife (has been getting around a 1.0 at 9pm) gets another season--which I think it will--it will only be because CBS loves Julianna Margulies and the show is ending next year anyway. I mean, ITA that network TV ratings are falling through the floor across the board and that will continue, but I can't imagine ABC would be satisfied with a 1.0 in the early slot on Sunday in the next 5 years.

 

Also, I think Wonderland being a fail has shown ABC that many Once viewers won't go over to a sequel/spinoff just because it has the Once name, which should give ABC pause. Viewers seem to be loyal to the mothership more than to the concept/larger universe/brand/etc. Double also, I think it's pretty telling that after Wonderland was a major flop, all the talk you heard about A&E doing multiple spinoffs and new worlds every year and so forth utterly stopped. I suspect that Wonderland's flop, plus the way Once absolutely hemorrhaged ratings in 4A, has taken some of the bloom off the A&E/Once rose at ABC, for all that Once still wins Sunday nights.

 

There are lots of opportunities in broadcast and it pays way better. Cable is notoriously stingy with actor salaries.

On the flip side, network TV also tends to be way more of a time commitment (22-23 episodes) than cable (which tends to hover around the 13-episode mark). I do think that's changing and network TV will embrace more and more short short-season shows--look at ABC's experiments this year or Empire, for example--but for the moment.

Edited by stealinghome
  • Love 2
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I agree. To convince movie/Oscar winning actors to sign on for TV, they'll have to promise them 13/15 episode seasons. On the flip side, they'll make them sign for a thousand seasons (didn't Viola Davis say that she had to sign up for 7?) so they can reach syndication anyway.

  • Love 2
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7 is pretty industry-standard, though, isn't it? I've always understood the norm to be 6/7.

It is. Apparently the CW does 6 (Nina Dobrev just bailed after 6). Which is why I think it's so weird when people insist OUAT is 5.

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Also, I think Wonderland being a fail has shown ABC that many Once viewers won't go over to a sequel/spinoff just because it has the Once name, which should give ABC pause. Viewers seem to be loyal to the mothership more than to the concept/larger universe/brand/etc. Double also, I think it's pretty telling that after Wonderland was a major flop, all the talk you heard about A&E doing multiple spinoffs and new worlds every year and so forth utterly stopped. I suspect that Wonderland's flop, plus the way Once absolutely hemorrhaged ratings in 4A, has taken some of the bloom off the A&E/Once rose at ABC, for all that Once still wins Sunday nights.

Hmmm...I just wrote a rant full of Wonderland feels but promptly deleted it because it would be kinda off topic. All I will say is that I think the Wonderland spin-off would have done slightly better (like, at least kept a 1.0 or higher) if they had kept it on Sundays. Also, from what I saw lurking on the Internet, parts of our bonkers-of-a-fandom shared a certain animosity towards it without giving it a chance.

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Also, I think Wonderland being a fail has shown ABC that many Once viewers won't go over to a sequel/spinoff just because it has the Once name, which should give ABC pause. Viewers seem to be loyal to the mothership more than to the concept/larger universe/brand/etc. Double also, I think it's pretty telling that after Wonderland was a major flop, all the talk you heard about A&E doing multiple spinoffs and new worlds every year and so forth utterly stopped. I suspect that Wonderland's flop, plus the way Once absolutely hemorrhaged ratings in 4A, has taken some of the bloom off the A&E/Once rose at ABC, for all that Once still wins Sunday nights.

Paul Lee said the exact opposite at the TCAs in January. Has as only good things to say about the show and its creators and left the door open for more spinoffs .

 

http://www.ew.com/article/2014/07/15/abc-once-upon-a-time-in-wonderland

  • Love 1
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It is. Apparently the CW does 6 (Nina Dobrev just bailed after 6). Which is why I think it's so weird when people insist OUAT is 5.

 

It's different with different shows and actors. For instance, also on The CW, Arrow has 3 year contracts, except for the lead actor.

 

Paul Lee said the exact opposite at the TCAs in January. Has as only good things to say about the show and its creators and left the door open for more spinoffs .

 

That was after Frozen. By this point, it's clear none of the viewers that got into Once with 4A have remained.

Edited by FurryFury
  • Love 2
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5 seasons used to be the standard.  It's been changing in the last ten years, with some contracts starting at 6 while others start at 7 but that's why a lot of people think the Once cast may have signed for 5.  Like FurryFurry just posted, Arrow's cast (other than Amell) has 3 year contracts, which has been a source of speculation as to whether or not various characters will be written off.  It does ultimately depend on the show. 

  • Love 1
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To be fair, Paul Lee said the same thing about Wonderland last year before it was quietly written away and before Frozen. It was partially ABC's fault for jumping on Wonderland -- a show got cancelled and rather than being patient, they just plugged Wonderland into the schedule with no regard to the time slot or the audience. I think they learned from that, which is why they made Agent Carter as a SHIELD gap show instead of getting twitchy with scheduling it. And while Galavant wasn't that successful, it did prove that an original gap-filler show can get better ratings than reruns and such.

 

But we also have to remember that one of the problems with Wonderland is that they didn't add many writers, if any, so you had Once writers needing to create another 12 episodes of something. If they did this again, they need to make sure Adam and Eddy don't have as much control over the gap-filling show. Come up with the idea, be the creators, but hand it off to another executive producer to manage.

 

Maybe my own opinion of Wonderland is coloring all of this, but I think I would've stuck with it if it had stayed as a Once gap-filler. There were too many other shows I was watching when Wonderland made it to air and I needed to make some DVR cuts -- something I would be more reluctant to do with a gap-filler.

  • Love 2
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And while Galavant wasn't that successful, it did prove that an original gap-filler show can get better ratings than reruns and such.

 

Not sure if its ratings were better than reruns of a successful show in this timeslot would have been, actually. Not to mention showing reruns doesn't cost any money, unlike producing a new show.

 

Generally,  I don't think this strategy really paid off this year. I'm sure Agent Carter would have got much better ratings in the fall. It was such a great show which just never got a big enough audience to begin with. And the ratings of AoS continue to plummet anyway.

Edited by FurryFury
  • Love 1
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Maybe my own opinion of Wonderland is coloring all of this, but I think I would've stuck with it if it had stayed as a Once gap-filler. There were too many other shows I was watching when Wonderland made it to air and I needed to make some DVR cuts -- something I would be more reluctant to do with a gap-filler.

Wonderland would have done so much better during the gap. I agree they should have given it a different writing team. The overuse of terrible CGI and lack of real world grounding kept audiences from being able to stick with it. The story wasn't terrible, and I actually liked it, but the production and scheduling was so subpar that it was just a flop.

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