S39: Spoilers & Speculation

[HighwayFlower]

Janets defense of Tommy on Twitter has many calling it production damage control for Tommy and points to him as winner.

I hope it’s true he defended her, but if so wouldn’t they have shown it if he was the winner?

[ProfCrash]

10 minutes ago, HighwayFlower said:

Janets defense of Tommy on Twitter has many calling it production damage control for Tommy and points to him as winner.

I hope it’s true he defended her, but if so wouldn’t they have shown it if he was the winner?

Can you provide a URL for Janet's action? I don't do twitter but can follow the links. Has Janet said anything else?

[HighwayFlower]

Hope this works

[ProfCrash]

19 minutes ago, HighwayFlower said:

Hope this works

It did. Thanks!

[Sarahsmile416]

2 hours ago, HighwayFlower said:

Janets defense of Tommy on Twitter has many calling it production damage control for Tommy and points to him as winner.

I hope it’s true he defended her, but if so wouldn’t they have shown it if he was the winner?

I’m a little confused as to how this points to Tommy as the winner.  I guess it’s possible,  but I think it’s equally likely Janet is singling out Tommy because viewers saw her go up to Tommy and ask him if she was in danger.  

[LadyChatts]

6 hours ago, HighwayFlower said:

Janets defense of Tommy on Twitter has many calling it production damage control for Tommy and points to him as winner.

I hope it’s true he defended her, but if so wouldn’t they have shown it if he was the winner?

I’ve seen other comments by people talking about Tommy’s edit compared to the others, especially during this whole incident, and how they think he’s being protected.  To be fair, there were other people we didn’t hear from.  Coincidentally, two of those people (Dean, Noura) are in a rumored final 3 along with Tommy.  The other people who weren't seen voicing an opinion were Elaine and Karishma. 

Edited November 15, 2019 by LadyChatts

[Nashville]

18 hours ago, LadyChatts said:

I hope Kellee drags Dean for screwing her over after she saved him.  

“Hi, Dean?  Kellee here - remember me?  For my Jury question, I was just hoping you could explain to us exactly how you expected your total lack of anything resembling loyalty to play in your favor....”. 😆

[LanceM]

10 hours ago, HighwayFlower said:

Janets defense of Tommy on Twitter has many calling it production damage control for Tommy and points to him as winner.

I hope it’s true he defended her, but if so wouldn’t they have shown it if he was the winner?

Actually it is kind of the opposite as a lot of people seem to think that if Tommy did win they would have shown that on the episode.  Personally I think people overanalyze things too much though I can see this argument.

[LadyChatts]

So it's being reported on other sites, that the same guy who posted the spoiler on Reddit about Kellee's 3 idol finds and the Tommy/Noura/Dean final 3 is saying that Dan is ejected the next episode, and that Elizabeth is the second boot.  Hoping that both of those are correct.  I also hope Missy and Aaron aren't behind Elizabeth's boot and end up getting blindsided along with her.

I wonder if those 3 are throwing Tommy's name out, and that's who Elaine is talking about to him in the preview?  So he turns on them.

[peachmangosteen]

3 minutes ago, LadyChatts said:

So it's being reported on other sites, that the same guy who posted the spoiler on Reddit about Kellee's 3 idol finds and the Tommy/Noura/Dean final 3 is saying that Dan is ejected the next episode, and that Elizabeth is the second boot. 

I just find that so odd. After all that they don't eject him and then suddenly they do? It makes no sense to me. Unless his behavior really escalates quickly or something, which I do not look forward to having to see.

[LadyChatts]

25 minutes ago, peachmangosteen said:

I just find that so odd. After all that they don't eject him and then suddenly they do? It makes no sense to me. Unless his behavior really escalates quickly or something, which I do not look forward to having to see.

It is weird, especially since in the preview, there's nothing to indicate anything dramatic happens.  We see Probst tell everyone they are voting two people out, so clearly Dan is still there at the beginning of the episode.  Seeing how defensive Dan got at TC this past week, maybe something happens there?  And maybe it's more Dan quits vs gets ejected, but due to the circumstances, they send him home.  

[Lamima]

Would an ejected Dan go to Poderosa and be on jury? I will guess no. Seems strangely coincidental that they started jury with Jack, a pre merge boot. Seems like they knew they were going to eject Dan or maybe they knew they were going to go after him and highlight his touching and felt they should be prepared for him quitting. Very very interesting to have Jack on jury. I was already feeling played by the show and now I am feeling even more so. I won't be watching next week. Fuck 'em. 

Oh, and if he does get to go to Ponderosa/jury, that will utterly suck for Kellee.

Edited November 17, 2019 by Lamima

[ProfCrash]

I would hope that Dan would steer clear of Kellee.

I will say that as uncomfortable as Kellee was with Dan’s touch she was not so put off that she was set on voting him out or having Production remove Dan. Kellee was going to vote out Missy until others were fully on board with voting out Dan because he made so many people uncomfortable.

She should be fine with him at Ponderosa, especially since Production will probably shadow Kellee or Dan every where.

[LadyChatts]

According to the spoiler source, Dan is removed completely from the game and sent home.  Again, take this how you want it.  Makes me wonder if he'll be at the reunion, although since this will get brought up again he might want to be to defend himself (on the other hand, they could ban him from there as well).

I can actually see a scenario where Dan makes it to TC, Probst brings up the events of the last TC, Dan gets mad that it's being re-hashed again, and either quits in a huff or crosses a line and he's removed.

[Lamima]

Interesting that pre-merge Jack is on jury. Have they done that before?

[Josh371982]

2 hours ago, LadyChatts said:

So it's being reported on other sites, that the same guy who posted the spoiler on Reddit about Kellee's 3 idol finds and the Tommy/Noura/Dean final 3 is saying that Dan is ejected the next episode, and that Elizabeth is the second boot.  Hoping that both of those are correct.  I also hope Missy and Aaron aren't behind Elizabeth's boot and end up getting blindsided along with her.

I wonder if those 3 are throwing Tommy's name out, and that's who Elaine is talking about to him in the preview?  So he turns on them.

Ironic if Dan gets ejected and Elizabeth gets voted out next considering apparently since Dan and Missy were apparently two people Elizabeth couldnt play without  in the game that she stopped to the level she did. would serve her right. Cause she was too stupid to let Missy or Dan go especially Missy who she wasnt gonna beat 

[BK1978]

4 hours ago, LadyChatts said:

I can actually see a scenario where Dan makes it to TC, Probst brings up the events of the last TC, Dan gets mad that it's being re-hashed again, and either quits in a huff or crosses a line and he's removed.

Having read that Dan was removed from the show, I was fully expecting it to happen last week when he got pissed at Peachy for re-hashing it.  To me it felt like he was going to say I quit when Peachy said he would bring it up for 39 days or whatever the quote was.

Therefore, I was sort of surprised when Jamal was voted out and Dan did not quit the show.

[SVNBob]

32 minutes ago, BK1978 said:

Having read that Dan was removed from the show, I was fully expecting it to happen last week when he got pissed at Peachy for re-hashing it.  To me it felt like he was going to say I quit when Peachy said he would bring it up for 39 days or whatever the quote was.

Agreed.  And I think that is what is going to happen in the next episode.  Peachy will bring it up again, and Dan will super-quit.

[LadyChatts]

Yeah, I'm starting to wonder if Dan quits but they frame it as they eject him.  They probably knew they screwed up by not removing him in the first place, and may figure this will help them save face.

Quote

Interesting that pre-merge Jack is on jury. Have they done that before?

I don't know if this had anything to do with Jack being on the jury, but that seems to be the speculation.  There's two seasons I can remember pre-mergers being on the jury: Cook Islands (3 pre-mergers were jurors) and Fiji (2 pre-mergers).

[SVNBob]

1 hour ago, LadyChatts said:

There's two seasons I can remember pre-mergers being on the jury: Cook Islands (3 pre-mergers were jurors) and Fiji (2 pre-mergers).

According to the Survivor Wiki, the seasons with pre-merge jurors (not including last season which was a huge edge case (pun intended)) are:

• Thailand (with a fake merge taking place when the real merge traditionally did at that point)
  • Erin
• Cook Islands (although technically there was a "merge" before this, since this season started with 4 tribes, and there were only 2 when the jury started)
  • Brad
  • Rebecca
  • Jenny
• Fiji
  • Rocky
  • Lisi
• Gabon
  • Marcus
• HvV
  • Benjamin
  • Courtney Yates

In this season, 6 of the 20 castaways were voted out before Jack started the jury, leaving 14 (including Jack.)  With an F3, that makes a jury of 11.  Which actually makes sense as a jury size, since the chance of a tie is considerably reduced.   So this could have been the plan all along, with 5 seasons of 7 other pre-jurors as a precedent.

However, there are a couple other possibilities.

First off, remember Kaoh Rong and that there was a reward challenge for the F3.  Michelle won the right to vote out a juror.   Couple that reward with the season gimmick and you get a finalist talking with Rob and Sandra about which juror to remove...and wouldn't that be a talking point scene.  That would also bring the jury back down to 10, where it has been for a while.  And this could still be part of the plan as stated in the paragraph above.

Second:

1 hour ago, LadyChatts said:

I'm starting to wonder if Dan quits but they frame it as they eject him.

It could technically be both.  Ever since Nicaragua and two quitters making the jury (and being a deciding factor thereon), the rules were altered to state that if anyone quits the game once the jury has started, TPTB have the right to decide whether or not to allow said quitter to be on the jury at all. 

So Dan may quit, followed by Peachy ejecting him from the jury.

Edited November 17, 2019 by SVNBob

[Lamima]

Ahhhh, so I am guessing that they go to TC and bring it up again and Dan loses his shit and quits. Then Peachy tells him he is ejecting him completely from the game (off the jury) since he feels Dan will vote with hostilities and/or not be trusted at Ponderosa where the jury folks aren't able to be monitored as much as the folks still in the game. 

They could have a challenge where one F3 goes to island of the idols and wins the ability to remove a juror (where Rob and Sandra discuss with them). I hate that. I hated it with Kaoh Rong and would hate it now too (if I were watching the show anymore). Those jurors deserve to have a vote and input in the game. They have to stay away from family all that time so that they DO have that vote. Ugghhh. That will give them 9 jurors. I'd much rather they allow the F3 to play a challenge where winner goes to IoI and gets to eliminate on of the other 2 in the F3. ANd we have a F2. I have been wanting them to go back to a F2. Then the jury would be 10. They might have a tie, but doesn't Peachy just LOOOOOVVVVEEEEE a tie?

[LizBug]

Personally, I don't think Dan will quit or be removed from the game.  I remember reading somewhere that, before last week's episode, Elizabeth was extremely excited about what went down (i.e., the #MeToo strategy, eliminating Kellee and Jamal) and posted something like that on her social media account(s).  She didn't expect the blowback from the audience.

So ... now, she and Missy and Dan (their ally) are in the catbird seats.  They'll probably eliminate Janet and Karishma.  Another possibility is Aaron, if he doesn't win immunity.

[LanceM]

1 hour ago, DallasGypsy said:

Personally, I don't think Dan will quit or be removed from the game.  I remember reading somewhere that, before last week's episode, Elizabeth was extremely excited about what went down (i.e., the #MeToo strategy, eliminating Kellee and Jamal) and posted something like that on her social media account(s).  She didn't expect the blowback from the audience.

So ... now, she and Missy and Dan (their ally) are in the catbird seats.  They'll probably eliminate Janet and Karishma.  Another possibility is Aaron, if he doesn't win immunity.

The only thing Elizabeth posted was a picture of the tribe flag with a  caption about how it was a beautiful tribe name (it was some kind of reference to Jack's father? that had passed recently)

I have seen a lot of speculation that they doing what they did in Ghost Island where the payers will be random separately into 2 groups and each of those 2 groups go to tc to vote someone off (they did this is in Ghost Island).  Not sure if there is any evidence to back this up. We shall see.

Dan allegedly was put on a plane after he was "removed" and sent back to LA. So he is not expected to be at Poderosa or on the jury.

[Lamima]

2 hours ago, LanceM said:

The only thing Elizabeth posted was a picture of the tribe flag with a  caption about how it was a beautiful tribe name (it was some kind of reference to Jack's father? that had passed recently)

I have seen a lot of speculation that they doing what they did in Ghost Island where the payers will be random separately into 2 groups and each of those 2 groups go to tc to vote someone off (they did this is in Ghost Island).  Not sure if there is any evidence to back this up. We shall see.

Dan allegedly was put on a plane after he was "removed" and sent back to LA. So he is not expected to be at Poderosa or on the jury.

Hmmm, so they may be divided into 2 teams and go to a TC each. And Dan is a boot from his team but is ejected not voted out? 

[Lamima]

So my feelings are...if Dan touches someone and gets booted then I can watch the show. But if he just gets belligerent at TC and quits/ejects then I still can't watch the show. I won't watch Wed. Think the ratings should make a clear statement to the show that they can't manipulate the audience like this, for ratings. But I will read here to see what happens and if he does something and gets the immediate boot...then I am back to watching. 

Anyone else who wants to make a clear statement to the show and not watch...don't forget to cancel any DVR recording of Wed episode as well. 

[LadyChatts]

I think one of three scenarios happens:

1) Dan crosses a line again, either by touching someone, or gets upset back at camp because of the accusations (and by upset, I mean Brandon Hantz level upset) and is ejected.

2) Dan makes it to TC, the issue is brought up, he's not happy, and quits/is ejected-either because Probst is badgering him and/or some of the ladies speak up.  As some people on other sites have pointed out, Dan has liked anti-Karishma tweets but otherwise has stayed silent about this season in general.  So there's speculation that Karishma might have something to do with Dan finally getting ejected (maybe he puts the icing on the cake and calls her a racial slur?)  Karishma has probably given enough reasons for people to not like her, so Dan may have just genuinely not liked the girl.  

3) Dan gets voted off, but they decide it's not a good idea for him to go to Ponderosa/be on the jury, so they send him home.  However, that seems more unlikely.  If Dan is voted off per the game rules, I don't see how they can say 'well, now we're going to eject you and take away your jury spot-you've been playing all this time for nothing.'  But I'm throwing it in there anyway.

Edited November 17, 2019 by LadyChatts

[Lamima]

Could be he gets voted off and then refuses to go to jury. 

[LadyChatts]

2 hours ago, Lamima said:

Could be he gets voted off and then refuses to go to jury. 

I think at this point anything is possible.  The spoiler source is saying ejected, which means that Dan isn't leaving on his own terms.  I'm still wondering if it's a gray area.  In a new preview, in a blink and you missed it shot, we Karishma and Elaine talking and they look serious.  It's probably just game related-Karishma may worry she's next since she's on the bottom.  Maybe she's the one who threw Tommy's name out to Elaine, and that's who Elaine is referring to.  But, with the talk of Dan apparently not being a fan of Karishma, it did cross my mind that maybe the two are talking about Dan.  Maybe he did something and she's confiding in Elaine about it.  

ETA: Here's the preview in question.  At the 4 second mark, Missy, Aaron, Noura, and Lauren look to be comforting Elizabeth, whose head is down and possibly crying.  An interesting discussion at Sucks is that maybe Elizabeth got harassed by Dan.  I'm thinking it could be the elements of the game finally catching up to her and/or the aftermath of the TC.  All the people present, minus Noura I guess, were piling on Janet and on Dan's side.  At the 6 second mark is the Karishma/Elaine scene (as I said, it's very blink and you miss it).  It almost looks like Karishma is trying to reassure Elaine.

Edited November 18, 2019 by LadyChatts

[Lamima]

I wonder if Dan realized that Janet was telling the truth and not playing him. Maybe he chews Elizabeth and Missy out. I will have to watch that preview...

[LadyChatts]

It'll be interesting if Dan does in fact harass Elizabeth, and she breaks down and realizes she was in the wrong about him (which kind of goes against what she said in her apology about her eyes being opened to facts she didn't have at the time).  I don't know that she'll get the same kind of sympathy, and she show will probably face more blowback if they eject Dan for her but not Kellee (and her merry band of misfits will probably get trashed more if they rally around her but not Kellee, and that they also attacked Janet for trying to prevent this very thing).  Again, it could just be the elements of the game catching up with her, maybe she's made to feel guilty, maybe she admits she totally used the situation to her advantage.  Whatever the case, the issue of Dan clearly isn't going away.

In addition, the spoiler source says Elizabeth is the second boot this ep, so there's that, too.  I'm wondering if she gets idoled out.

[BK1978]

4 hours ago, LadyChatts said:

In addition, the spoiler source says Elizabeth is the second boot this ep, so there's that, too.  I'm wondering if she gets idoled out.

That's interesting because I remember before the season started that there was a rumor that she made it far in the game.  If she does go out next episode that is hardly far.

[Lamima]

5 hours ago, BK1978 said:

That's interesting because I remember before the season started that there was a rumor that she made it far in the game.  If she does go out next episode that is hardly far.

Meh, 4th jury member is pretty far. Technically 5th if she is the 2nd boot (though Dan supposedly doesn't get on jury).

Edited November 18, 2019 by Lamima

[Special K]

13 hours ago, LadyChatts said:

But, with the talk of Dan apparently not being a fan of Karishma, it did cross my mind that maybe the two are talking about Dan. 

If Dan manhandles Karishma after everything that went on last week, I could see her reporting him to the producers and asking for him to be removed.  It would also explain why we heard earlier about Karishma's standards of modesty and her faith - both things we haven't heard about since.

[LadyChatts]

5 hours ago, Special K said:

If Dan manhandles Karishma after everything that went on last week, I could see her reporting him to the producers and asking for him to be removed.  It would also explain why we heard earlier about Karishma's standards of modesty and her faith - both things we haven't heard about since.

I can’t even believe Dan would be that stupid,  but since he didn’t appear to suffer any consequences, I guess he might feel bold enough.  He really doesn’t think there’s anything wrong with what he’s doing.  In addition, if that really is the reason he’s liking anti-Karishma posts, that just paints him in an even worse light.  Since Karishma is not in the main alliance (and if Dan only knew the reason he was in that alliance), maybe he does it as a way of getting under her skin, thinking nothing will happen.

[FormerMod-a1]

I was wondering if Dan would be out next since they were holding off on the interviews with Kellee and Jamal.  I thought something more was probably going to happen and they wanted to wait for it all to provide more context.  So I think that spoiler has a high probability of being true.  I look forward to finding out on Wed.

[ProfCrash]

I am going to be annoyed If they are holding Kellee’s interview for Dan’s being voted out or removed from the game.

[Bryce Lynch]

17 hours ago, aquarian1 said:

I was wondering if Dan would be out next since they were holding off on the interviews with Kellee and Jamal.  I thought something more was probably going to happen and they wanted to wait for it all to provide more context.  So I think that spoiler has a high probability of being true.  I look forward to finding out on Wed.

I am thinking the same thing.  Holding off Kellee and Jamal's exit press for a week fits in with the rumor that Dan will be ejected  or voted out, this week.

Delaying their interviews will:

a) Allow Kellee and Jamal to speak much more freely about the situation, without risk of spoilers.

b) Make the show come off a lot better in those interviews.  Rather than them pretending the groper lowlife is still in the game, the talk will probably be more about how it took a while ,but justice finally prevailed, blah, blah blah.  

[LadyChatts]

Press photos were released and a poster at Sucks has them uploaded.  It looks like there are two teams, as everyone is holding either a purple or orange ring in what looks like another endurance challenge Aaron is winning.

The teams look to be: Aaron, Dan, Dean, Lauren, Noura, Janet (Purple), and Elaine, Tommy, Elizabeth, Missy, Karishma (Orange).  

We saw Elaine in last week's preview telling Tommy that someone was throwing his name out; if Elizabeth is in fact the boot, then it must be her or Missy.  Karishma's got nothing to lose, and not a lot of love those those ladies, so she could side with Tommy/Elaine to vote them out.  However, given how 'Lairo Strong' Elaine has been, I question why she would turn on Elizabeth/Missy, unless she's ready to make a big move or they are leaving her out of something.  Maybe an idol comes into play?

I do hope the rumor is true and Elizabeth goes.  And that Dan gets ejected.  I'm still skeptical of both.  On the purple tribe, Janet and Noura seem most vulnerable (especially Janet).   

Edited November 20, 2019 by LadyChatts

[ProfCrash]

Kellee's interviews are out. She answered questions via email. You can find them on most of the major sites. Some suck and avoid the entire situation but most are pretty good.

[LadyChatts]

So spoilers for this week were wrong, and nothing in the preview indicate anything controversial happening next week.  

Curious if the final 3 spoiler holds up.  If Dean is in fact in the final 3, I find it humorous he's talking about a goat army assembling in the preview, when he's probably going to the final 3 for the same reason.

[Lamima]

Yeah the leaks were lying lies. Whoever did that...leaked those lies...is a POS. They wanted to rope us, us meaning those who were not going to watch anymore, back in. Well I didn't watch and won't be next week either. If Dan had been ejected I might had watched again. But, nope, not now. And I hear they gave Dan a lot of talking heads and played like none of that happened last week. So, yep, despicable show played us.

Edited November 21, 2019 by Lamima

[Special K]

Have we ever had a final three with three goats? 

[peachmangosteen]

13 hours ago, LadyChatts said:

Curious if the final 3 spoiler holds up.  If Dean is in fact in the final 3, I find it humorous he's talking about a goat army assembling in the preview, when he's probably going to the final 3 for the same reason.

Who is the supposed F3? And where is the spoiler coming from because if it's the same person that said Dan was ejected and Elizabeth voted out this week then I'm gonna go ahead and assume it's also a lie lol.

[Josh371982]

44 minutes ago, peachmangosteen said:

Who is the supposed F3? And where is the spoiler coming from because if it's the same person that said Dan was ejected and Elizabeth voted out this week then I'm gonna go ahead and assume it's also a lie lol.

The F3 that was "Spolied" is Tommy Dean and Lauren. Elaine gets to F4 and loses the fire Challenge. We shall see if this comes to pass

[HighwayFlower]

Lauren is so active on social media, that I would not be at all surprised to see that she is in final 3 with a chance at being the winner. She had jury allies...

Or maybe it means nothing. Those very excited about the season tend to do well is all. 

[LadyChatts]

I heard the final 3 was Tommy, Dean, and Noura, although Lauren would make way more sense.  This person supposedly spoiled that Kellee found three idols and was voted off with one (it was two).  I believe the person in question has spoiled a recent season as well.

Dan clearly wasn’t happy when he got back and didn’t post anything on SM, so I do wonder if something happens.  

[Special K]

2 minutes ago, LadyChatts said:

I heard the final 3 was Tommy, Dean, and Noura, although Lauren would make way more sense.  This person supposedly spoiled that Kellee found three idols and was voted off with one (it was two).  I believe the person in question has spoiled a recent season as well.

Dan clearly wasn’t happy when he got back and didn’t post anything on SM, so I do wonder if something happens.  

Tommy, Dean, and Noura F3 would suck.  Go Tommy I guess?

[HurricaneVal]

I'm not sure I'd classify Tommy or Lauren as goats, per se, in this stage of the game.  I don't think they're top tier players, but two top tier threats went out last night in what I hope was a strategically planned "divide and conquer" move and not an accident.  So Tommy and Lauren are moving up in the rankings.  

Unless Dean starts doing more than just hanging out, he will qualify for goat.

Karishima is a goat, straight-up.

[nutty1]

I read something tonight stating Tommy, Dean, Noura and Lauren were finally 4, with Lauren leaving at 4. No clue if it’s accurate. This guy has had accurate spoilers in the past, but was wrong last season. 

[peachmangosteen]

11 hours ago, nutty1 said:

I read something tonight stating Tommy, Dean, Noura and Lauren were finally 4, with Lauren leaving at 4. 

I'm not against this F4. It's kind of hilarious plus Tommy would almost certainly win and I have him on my fantasy team.