2019 Awards Season

[Irlandesa]

2 hours ago, JessePinkman said:

Those were the rumors at the time, yes. That he refused to continue working with Singer and wouldn't return to set until he was gone. Not that I don't believe it but would Malek have the power to do that at the time?

I doubt Malek had that much power even though there were rumors of discord. It actually sounds like Singer was fired for basically not showing up to set.

But Malek has been kind of awful when responding to the accusations against Singer so I don't think not getting along with him is going to be enough to help him. (Not that his awful responses are going to hurt him.)

[NUguy514]

I haven't seen Willem Dafoe's film, but I hope he wins just because I find three of the other four performances (by Cooper, Malek, and Mortensen) to be so deeply uninteresting and mediocre and the fourth (by Bale) to be good but not great and played by an actor whom I don't particularly need to see win a second Oscar.  I really hate that category, but I will be most upset if Malek wins for three reasons: his performance was uninteresting and superficial (for which I largely blame the film's shitty script, although I'm not sure whom to blame for the bad lip-synching), I hate the idea of yet another straight-identified actor being lauded like this for playing a GLBT role (especially such a queer icon), and I cannot stomach anything or anyone from a Bryan Singer film winning.  The only reason I even watched the film was because I'm in SAG and could stream it for free; I was not about to contribute one more penny to that man's bank account

[OnePlusOne]

9 hours ago, JessePinkman said:

Those were the rumors at the time, yes. That he refused to continue working with Singer and wouldn't return to set until he was gone. Not that I don't believe it but would Malek have the power to do that at the time?

 

8 hours ago, Athena said:

Tom Hollander said similar things as well and he had to be talked back onto set by the producers. Singer seemed to have made it hellish for most of the cast, but they had to bear it for most of the production. They likely relied heavily on the secondary directors and production teams as well.

Back when this happened, I remember reading (I think in Variety and/or The Hollywood Reporter) that Malek complained to the union/studio about Singer's behavior on-set, which is what led to Singer being fired. I read the stuff about Tom Hollander briefly quitting, too. There were rumors that Singer even threw something at Malek during one argument.

Other cast members have posted on social media and said in interviews that Rami was a leader on a set that needed one (inferring without flat-out saying that their original director was an ass and not much of a leader). I saw a lengthy SAG-AFTRA interview with Rami where he mentioned that someday he could do a whole, long interview solely about how difficult this shoot was (but he didn't go into any specifics). I don't think Malek's vague answers when asked about Singer are because he wants to defend him--if you read between the lines, it's pretty clear that he and the cast couldn't stand Singer. Maybe he and the cast had to sign some kind of non-disclosure agreements when the studio fired Singer? Ugh, I can't believe that the studio hired Singer in the first place.

It's amazing to me that Malek was able to give the performance that he did under those conditions. I hope he wins that Oscar.

[vibeology]

21 hours ago, Irlandesa said:

But Malek has been kind of awful when responding to the accusations against Singer so I don't think not getting along with him is going to be enough to help him. (Not that his awful responses are going to hurt him.)

This. Every time it's come up, Malek dodges like he's in gym class and talks about his process or his struggles and then mentions Freddie. What he isn't doing is mentioning the victims. He's very much acting like the worst thing Bryan Singer did was make his life difficult and then stop showing up to work. And just so we're clear, Singer stopped showing up to work at almost the same time that Kevin Spacey was called out. (Anthony Rapp's story came out the end of October 29, 2017 and Singer started being a problem in November 2017 with occasional no-shows and then not returning after Thanksgiving break, with production ultimately halting December 1st) Kevin Spacey, frequent guest at Singer's pool parties. Every part of this story should go back to the victims but Rami hasn't mentioned them once.

I don't think this will kill his Oscar chances and I still think he's the frontrunner, but Oscar voting stays open until the week of the ceremony or something crazy late like that so if he doesn't figure out a better PR statement between now and then, I do think it might end up being a closer race than the pre-cursors suggest.

 

22 hours ago, Ms Blue Jay said:

Emily winning for A Quiet Place?  Goodness.  She's a good actor and everything but again, I didn't get the big deal with that performance.  Some say Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz split votes.  Do you guys think this is possible?

I do think there was a vote splitting element to it, but also a consolation prize element. Emily had a really good year with both A Quiet Place and Mary Poppins Returns and she clearly isn't going to win for MPR, but people want to reward her in some way for her good work.

[Simon Boccanegra]

Just a flashback: How. It's. Done. Gracious, witty, well prepared; you don't blame them for letting him go on as long as he wants. I warn that since it was a Miramax film and it was 2000, there is the obligatory thank-you to Evil Incarnate (5:03), but it's just a name-drop.  

[ProudMary]

The DGA Awards were held tonight.
Alfonso Cuaron won the Feature Film award for Roma.
Bo Burnham won the First-Time Feature Film award for Eighth Grade.  I think I'm starting to feel a little sorry for Bradley Cooper, even though I haven't seen ASIB.  I did see Eighth Grade though.
Tim Wardle won the Documentary award for Three Identical Strangers, which just makes me angrier that the film wasn't even nominated for the Oscar.  

The full list of winners can be seen here:
https://variety.com/2019/film/news/dga-awards-2019-winners-list-1203127035/

[Trini]

Annie award winners: https://deadline.com/2019/02/awards-2019-winners-list-spider-man-into-the-spider-verse-snares-top-prize-six-others-at-anifa-hollywood-gala-1202548292/

Commentary from Chicago Tribune:

Quote

"Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse" topped Saturday's Annie Awards, taking home seven [trophies] -- one for each of its webslinger incarnations -- including best animated feature. The Sony Pictures Animation film, which won in every category in which it was nominated, swung past Aardman Animations' "Early Man," Pixar's "Incredibles 2," Fox Searchlight Pictures' "Isle of Dogs" and Disney's "Ralph Breaks the Internet" for that honor.

In addition to animated feature, "Spider-Verse" picked up trophies for direction (Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey and Rodney Rothman); writing (Phil Lord and Rothman); character animation in an animated feature (David Han); character design (Shiyoon Kim); production design (Justin K. Thompson) and editorial (Bob Fisher, Andrew Leviton and Vivek Sharma).

Mamoru Hosoda's "Mirai" was named best animated independent feature.

How the "Spider-Verse" Annie wins will affect its chances on Oscar night is unclear. The Academy changed its nominating procedures this year for the animated feature category, opening it up to any Academy member willing to join the nominating committee. The winner will be chosen via a preferential ballot just like the best picture category. "Spider-Verse" will face the same competition on Feb. 24 as it did for the Annies, with the exception of "Early Man," whose slot went to "Mirai."

[Simon Boccanegra]

On 2/3/2019 at 2:19 AM, ProudMary said:

I think I'm starting to feel a little sorry for Bradley Cooper, even though I haven't seen ASIB.  I did see Eighth Grade though.

I think you got the better end of that deal. Eighth Grade was one of the few near-great movies I've seen so far from the 2018 crop, and a really promising feature debut. I wasn't knocked out by ASIB. 

Cooper did one of those Hollywood Reporter round table things with Ryan Coogler, Alfonso Cuarón, Marielle Heller, Yorgos Lanthimos, and Spike Lee, and some people thought the more experienced directors were kind of chilly to him, in their looks and in their not picking up the ball sometimes when he attempted to offer something to the discussion. I haven't seen the entire sit-down myself (I need to be in a great mood to put up with Stephen Galloway's pompous moderation), so that's secondhand.

[Dejana]

5 hours ago, Simon Boccanegra said:

I think you got the better end of that deal. Eighth Grade was one of the few near-great movies I've seen so far from the 2018 crop, and a really promising feature debut. I wasn't knocked out by ASIB. 

Cooper did one of those Hollywood Reporter round table things with Ryan Coogler, Alfonso Cuarón, Marielle Heller, Yorgos Lanthimos, and Spike Lee, and some people thought the more experienced directors were kind of chilly to him, in their looks and in their not picking up the ball sometimes when he attempted to offer something to the discussion. I haven't seen the entire sit-down myself (I need to be in a great mood to put up with Stephen Galloway's pompous moderation), so that's secondhand.

People can make so much out of reaction shots from roundtables, they make good gifs on awards forums/blogs, but sometimes people use clips that go with whatever narrative is already in their heads. I saw one freeze frame from the actress roundtable where supposedly Glenn Close is giving a death stare to Gaga, yet when they tied at the Critics Choice Awards, Glenn seemed positively elated for her. Of course she's an actress, but maybe they like each other fine and it's their stans who are at war. Anyway,  here's a moment from the DGA event with the director nominees last Saturday:

 

I do think there has been a shift from the days of Gibson and Costner winning Best Director in their box office prime as actors. And Cooper's case specifically, he's still nominated three times this year, so it's hard for the "snubbed" narrative to help him win something like it did for Affleck with Argo.

Edited February 4, 2019 by Dejana

[NUguy514]

I don't think the Argo/Affleck comparison is quite apt because Argo was winning Best Picture before the nominations even came out and Affleck wasn't nominated for Director; I don't think his snub had any effect on the movie's chances because it was always the frontrunner.

I don't know whether Cooper is or isn't popular in Hollywood, but I do think it's likely perceived as a less impressive achievement to remake a remake of a remake of a remake (depending on if you feel What Price Hollywood? is the true original version of this chestnut); some of his directorial choices also belied the fact that he was a first-time director.  There just wasn't much originality there, especially when you stack his work up against that of Cuarón, Lanthimos, Lee, Jenkins, Pawlikowski, Coogler, Granik, Heller, etc.

[Simon Boccanegra]

3 hours ago, Dejana said:

People can make so much out of reaction shots from roundtables, they make good gifs on awards forums/blogs, but sometimes people use clips that go with whatever narrative is already in their heads. I saw one freeze frame from the actress roundtable where supposedly Glenn Close is giving a death stare to Gaga, yet when they tied at the Critics Choice Awards, Glenn seemed positively elated for her. Of course she's an actress, but maybe they like each other fine and it's their stans who are at war. 

That's a good point. I also think there can be over-reading of the faces of non-winners. I saw several emotions attributed to Denzel Washington when Casey Affleck won the Oscar for Manchester by the Sea (and paid tribute to Washington in his speech), but nothing that makes me doubt what Washington himself said: he expected Affleck to win. Maybe he really wanted a third Oscar, and the mild surprise at the SAGs had given him some hope it would happen, but I don't think he was furious or devastated, or hated Affleck. That may have been true for some of Washington's fans (and for the actress presenting the award). 

[NUguy514]

Well...it's not like the hatred directed at Affleck was without cause.

[Dejana]

14 hours ago, Simon Boccanegra said:

That's a good point. I also think there can be over-reading of the faces of non-winners. I saw several emotions attributed to Denzel Washington when Casey Affleck won the Oscar for Manchester by the Sea (and paid tribute to Washington in his speech), but nothing that makes me doubt what Washington himself said: he expected Affleck to win. Maybe he really wanted a third Oscar, and the mild surprise at the SAGs had given him some hope it would happen, but I don't think he was furious or devastated, or hated Affleck. That may have been true for some of Washington's fans (and for the actress presenting the award). 

The day of the Oscars that year, ABC rebroadcast clips of the old Barbara Walters specials. Denzel was interviewed the year was nominated for Malcolm X and got very candid in sizing up his competition:

 

 

The good part starts at about 4:44 or so:

An Academy Award nomination...does that thrill you? Do you say, "Yeah, it would be nice, but"...what?

You know, at the risk of sounding egotistical, I expected to get nominated. I didn't—you know, I would have been very surprised if I wasn't.

Do you expect to win?

But to be very honest, I would like to win.

You'd like to win. What do you think the odds are of you winning?

I don't know what the odds are but I looked at all the films, I've seen all the competition, and I know where I stand. I heard someone say, "It's a close race," I heard it today, I think, they said it was a close race between Clint Eastwood and Al Pacino. Hey, I love Clint Eastwood, nothing against Clint Eastwood, and Clint Eastwood has put in his time, and I think he deserves to win Best Director or whatever, because he's put in his time.  I would something to say, if he won [Best Actor], you know, I mean, I'm not knocking the man and he's great, he's great, and I've loved his movies and all of that, but you know, I'm an actor, I know what I like, and I've seen all the films.

So as far you're concerned, it's Al Pacino or Denzel Washington. Where you stand? [Laughing]  It's just us, who's going to listen?

[Laughing] Who's going to listen? Who's going to know?

Al Pacino's not listening...

Let me say this, I'm amazed he hasn't won, and I had to say to myself, if I was nominated 8 times and I hadn't won, would I be screaming "racism", and would everybody else be screaming "racism", and what does he scream?

If you don't win, will you say, "Racism?"

No, no.

 

 

So, having that fresh in the mind of awards obsessives (definitely the type to watch hours of pre-coverage on ABC) IMO had a hand in shaping "Denzel is pissed about losing to Casey Affleck" narrative.  Can you imagine the acting nominees being this catty honest about each other now and on the record?

Edited February 5, 2019 by Dejana

[Simon Boccanegra]

The best performance in the category that year was Downey's stunning Chaplin portrayal, IMO, but no one was expecting him to win. Few thought the film was anything special, and he was young and would have been expected to be back. Just one nomination in the quarter century since, though, and that was for a comedy.

Agreed that the nominees are more cautious in their comments now than they were 20 or 30 years ago. I also remember Cher bluntly saying that she deserved to win, the year that she, in fact, went on to do so. She didn't specifically discuss other nominees, though. It was a strong field (Close/Fatal Attraction, Hunter/Broadcast News, Streep/Ironweed, and lovable long shot Sally Kirkland for Anna).

[galaxygirl76]

I don't know if this really happened or my mind is making this up but didn't Denzel say after he won for Training Day that he hoped he won because he was the best that year and not because of the color of his skin? (imo Washington and Crowe should have swapped years) 

 

Extremely unpopular opinion, I think Downey should have won for Tropic Thunder. 

[ruby24]

3 hours ago, galaxygirl76 said:

Extremely unpopular opinion, I think Downey should have won for Tropic Thunder. 

Tropic Thunder, omg, can you imagine that movie coming out today, much less Robert Downey Jr. getting nominated for it? It would get savaged. It's amazing how much has changed in the last ten years. I don't even think that part was the most controversial at the time, I remember there being some complaints about the portrayal of disabled people and the use of a word that's now considered a slur against them.

But yeah, the blackface stuff I don't think they could EVER get away with now. 

[NUguy514]

6 hours ago, galaxygirl76 said:

Extremely unpopular opinion, I think Downey should have won for Tropic Thunder. 

I would've voted for Heath Ledger that year over anyone.  I would've voted for him over Obama!

[BetterButter]

Bafta: Queen director Singer suspended from nomination 

[ruby24]

Apparently The Rock was the Academy's first choice to host the Oscars this year, but he couldn't due to filming the Jumanji sequel. 

That...might not have been a bad choice actually. I can see it. They should try for him next year.

[Dejana]

5 hours ago, BetterButter said:

Bafta: Queen director Singer suspended from nomination 

BoRhap must be winning Best British Film, then. There have been allegations about Bryan Singer for years and they still nominated him last month. 

 

1 hour ago, ruby24 said:

Apparently The Rock was the Academy's first choice to host the Oscars this year, but he couldn't due to filming the Jumanji sequel. 

That...might not have been a bad choice actually. I can see it. They should try for him next year.

Wouldn't Kevin Hart be in that, too? Unless his character isn't in it as much as The Rock.

 

 

It's that time...the first of many Anonymous Oscar Voters:

[scarynikki12]

Where do they find these people?  This guy could have said that he's voting for Green Book because he genuinely enjoyed it and felt it exemplified what a Best Picture winner should be.  Instead, he seems to be voting for it mainly because he's annoyed at all the negative press surrounding the director and others involved behind the scenes.  I'm also sending a side eye his way for referring to John David Washington as "Denzel Washington's son".  The tone feels like he couldn't be bothered to remember his name, even though the interviewer literally says it in the question.  One positive thing I'll say about this guy is that it sounds like he's actually watched most, if not all, of the nominated movies and I know a lot of Oscar voters don't even bother.  Another is he gives a legitimately good explanation for why he's voting for Supporting the way he is: Richard Grant's supporting role helps Melissa McCarthy shine while Mahershala does the shining himself.  That's a solid way of differentiating between a supporting and lead character.  I haven't seen Green Book so I can't on if he's right but I like the description.  I hope he's wrong about Roma missing out on Best Picture because it will probably win in the Foreign Film category.  I don't know yet who I'm picking for Best Picture but I don't want Roma to miss out because idiot voters think it already got its Oscar earlier in the evening.

Once again I shall lament that I am not an Oscar voter because I would kick that ballot's ass. 

[ruby24]

These anonymous Oscar voters relish this time of year. They LOVE being able to say whatever nasty thing they want behind the curtain of anonymity. I guess in a way it's good to know what people are really thinking. Illuminating, if depressing and annoying.

Edited February 7, 2019 by ruby24

[NUguy514]

Every year, anonymous Oscar voters are polled, and every year, they come across as the most uniformly horrendous people.

[Simon Boccanegra]

I do like reading those "honest Oscar ballot" pieces that Entertainment Weekly and The Hollywood Reporter (and maybe other sites/publications) have been running for years. Once in a while they do get someone whose comments are interesting and perceptive, and I understand why people can't be blunt about their dislikes without the cover of anonymity. A veteran screenwriter such as the late William Goldman could do it under his own byline, because he had little to lose from writing a takedown of Gangs of New York, for example, at the point in his life he did so. But for a working actress or composer who may be frozen out of future projects, it's different.  

The guy (or gal?) in the piece above has some good comments and, as noted, at least has made an effort to see the movies. I don't agree with all of the choices, but I do agree about the over-the-top organized campaigning. Ol' Harvey got the long overdue boot, but that part of his legacy may be with us for a long time. And whether it's planted by or just fanned by someone connected with a rival film, I could not care less what the director of Green Book did in the run-up to making There's Something About Mary in the 1990s. I don't even think that should be part of the conversation about the film's merits. If Farrelly were flashing people on the set of Green Book, and cast and crew members were giving interviews about how upsetting they found it, maybe. But we wouldn't have had to wait until the awards season to hear about that; it most likely would have come out while the film was still in production. Because it would be relevant.  

Other honest Oscar ballots I have read over the years...well, they only proved that people who are in the industry and presumably see a lot of films can be as thick, prejudiced, and undiscerning as anyone sounding off on the internet or in a multiplex lobby. The worst are the ones in which the Academy member admits to not bothering to see a bunch of nominees in important categories, or "I turned it off after 15 minutes because it was depressing to me" (re: any drama about a serious subject). Here's a good parody from a couple years ago. It's so close to the real thing that it's barely satire in places.  

http://www.tracking-board.com/fake-brutally-honest-oscar-ballot-do-voters-even-watch-these-movies-humor/

Edited February 9, 2019 by Simon Boccanegra

[chitowngirl]

BAFTA Winners-

https://deadline.com/2019/02/2019-bafta-awards-winners-list-1202553890/

[starri]

Forget everything else, Into the Spider-Verse is just cleaning up.  Good for them.

[Notwisconsin]

Disney/Pixar is going to lose in both animated categories this year.

[ProudMary]

Wow, from all the BAFTAs won by The Favourite, it seemed as if it might take the Best Film award, but Roma took the prize.

With Rami Malek's BAFTA win here, I'd say the tie with Christian Bale for Best Actor frontrunner has been broken.

[scarynikki12]

As of today I've now seen all the nominated short films.  Here's my breakdown:

I fully expect Bao to win for Animated Short.  Mainly because it will still give Pixar an animation Oscar since Spider-Verse is going to win for feature.  I'm fine with this win, as I loved Bao, but I would be delighted if One Small Step won as it tied Bao for my favorite of the animation shorts.

For Live Action I honestly don't know which will win.  The kids in Detainment were excellent, which would normally make it my assumed frontrunner, but the controversy over the film getting made in the first place could be a turnoff to any voters in the know.  I will say that my favorite of the group was Mother so I'll be pulling for it.

Documentary is tough again.  I'm guessing A Night At The Garden or Lifeboat will take it but I loved, loved, loved Period. End Of Sentence.  I will thrilled if it wins.

With regard to the BAFTA winners, I'm feeling more confident about picking Roma to take Best Picture.  I think Cuaron will take Director, and we'll see Rami, Glenn, Regina, and Mahershala win for Acting.  Once WGA gives out their awards I'll be more confident in the Screenplay categories but I'm leaning towards the Academy awarding Spike Lee here since they'll probably want to give him one but Cuaron will be hard to beat for Director.

Only two weeks to go!

[thuganomics85]

Yeah, after all of the unpredictability, I think the BAFTA has helped settle most of the things.  The fact that Roma managed to win Best Picture over The Favourite is pretty big, and I have to think it is the front-runner now.

Meanwhile, Rami Malek has so got Best Actor in the bag now and I've now gone from 99.9% to 99.9999% that Mahershala Ali is getting his second trophy.  As for the Actresses, I guess Olivia Coleman winning the BAFTA could help her be an option for anyone who doesn't want to vote for Glenn Close for whatever reason, but I still suspect having home field advantage helped here, and Close is going to take the Oscar.  As for Supporting Actress, I'm still going with Regina King, despite Rachel Weisz's win here.  Had Rachel also won the SAG, I could have seen her being a bigger threat, but I feel like the love for the Regina and potential voting spilts between Rachel and Emma Stone is going to hand Mrs. King her first Oscar.

Trying not to get my hopes up, but I so hope Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse takes the Oscar.  It certainly has the momentum, but I can't count out the Academy's love for Pixar.

[ProudMary]

31 minutes ago, scarynikki12 said:

As of today I've now seen all the nominated short films.  Here's my breakdown:

I fully expect Bao to win for Animated Short.  Mainly because it will still give Pixar an animation Oscar since Spider-Verse is going to win for feature.  I'm fine with this win, as I loved Bao, but I would be delighted if One Small Step won as it tied Bao for my favorite of the animation shorts.

For Live Action I honestly don't know which will win.  The kids in Detainment were excellent, which would normally make it my assumed frontrunner, but the controversy over the film getting made in the first place could be a turnoff to any voters in the know.  I will say that my favorite of the group was Mother so I'll be pulling for it.

Documentary is tough again.  I'm guessing A Night At The Garden or Lifeboat will take it but I loved, loved, loved Period. End Of Sentence.  I will thrilled if it wins.

With regard to the BAFTA winners, I'm feeling more confident about picking Roma to take Best Picture.  I think Cuaron will take Director, and we'll see Rami, Glenn, Regina, and Mahershala win for Acting.  Once WGA gives out their awards I'll be more confident in the Screenplay categories but I'm leaning towards the Academy awarding Spike Lee here since they'll probably want to give him one but Cuaron will be hard to beat for Director.

Only two weeks to go!

I think it's great that you've seen all the short films.  I was hoping to see the compilation of all 15 that began screening on 2/8, but our local art house theater isn't showing it so I may be out of luck.  Some of the short films are available on Youtube, but not all.  I've only seen Bao as it ran with Incredibles 2.

I agree with all of your picks in the main Oscar categories.  I also think Spike Lee has a pretty clear path to a win for Best Adapted Screenplay as the other major Best Picture nominees fall into the Original Screenplay category (Green Book, Roma, Vice, The Favourite.)  That category is the real toss-up.  I'm leaning toward an Adam McKay win for Vice there.  Cuaron has the award for Best Director locked down and may very well win Best Picture (Producer), Best Foreign Language Film and is a strong bet for the cinematography award too.  I think the Green Book controversy over just how much (or how little) of the story is true may come back to bite Nick Vallelonga in this category. Peter Farrelly's past on-set behavior doesn't help their cause either. This seems like a good category for a nod to McKay.

[scarynikki12]

1 hour ago, ProudMary said:

 I was hoping to see the compilation of all 15 that began screening on 2/8, but our local art house theater isn't showing it so I may be out of luck

If you haven’t already, check the theater chains near you. The first year I watched the nominated shorts was at a Regal theater. 

[ruby24]

I've seen all the animated shorts and my favorite is One Small Step. I think it's better than Bao, but I don't know whether to bet against Pixar. 

I think Supporting Actress is wide open. I do think Rachel Weisz could sneak in and win it now though- The Favourite has 10 nominations and is much more widely seen than Beale Street, I think. Plus, the British contingent in the Academy might be going for her. King is still possible, but I'm feeling more wary of that now. I could even see de Tavira winning in a stunner.

Adapted Screenplay will be Spike's at last. Malek is locked for Actor and I still think Glenn has the edge for Actress. I don't know about Best Picture- I think Roma should be the frontrunner, but BAFTA has missed the Oscar Best Picture the last 5 years because they don't use the preferential ballot and things shake out differently with that.

I will probably still predict it though. I'm waiting for the WGA for Original Screenplay- The Favourite is not eligible there and if Green Book takes that, it's still a threat. Especially if, as the PGA winner, it's still a possibility in Picture.

[Simon Boccanegra]

4 hours ago, thuganomics85 said:

As for Supporting Actress, I'm still going with Regina King, despite Rachel Weisz's win here.  Had Rachel also won the SAG, I could have seen her being a bigger threat, but I feel like the love for the Regina and potential voting spilts between Rachel and Emma Stone is going to hand Mrs. King her first Oscar.

Weisz also has the "She's won before" factor working against her at the Oscars. This is never fatal (it won't hurt Ali a bit, and he won his category much more recently), but when it comes to breaking a tie...

3 hours ago, ProudMary said:

I think the Green Book controversy over just how much (or how little) of the story is true may come back to bite Nick Vallelonga in this category. 

Odd that Spike Lee is getting such an easy ride on that. His film is far more factually dubious than Vallelonga/Farrelly's.  If theirs is about 75 to 80 percent reliable, his is more like 40 to 45 percent.    

I agree that Original Screenplay is one of the most interesting races, though. I could see a path to victory for any of the five, even Schrader's brilliant, under-nominated First Reformed. He has written so many great films and has never been nominated before, and isn't getting any younger. But everyone else in the category has a better shot.  

Edited February 11, 2019 by Simon Boccanegra

[ProudMary]

3 hours ago, scarynikki12 said:

If you haven’t already, check the theater chains near you. The first year I watched the nominated shorts was at a Regal theater. 

There are 3 Regal theaters within 20 miles of my house and sadly, none of them are showing the short films.  😥

[thuganomics85]

The New York Times did an interesting version of the anonymous Oscar voter, by interviewing 20 of them and getting a sense of what they felt about all of the Best Picture Nominees.

All in all, another interesting, if frustrating insight into what goes through voters minds and how a lot of it has nothing to do with the actual quality of the films.  We have another voter who claims he is voting Green Book just out of spite over the backlash, one says Vice is probably being hurt by optics since some think it would look bad for the Academy to award BP to a film about an old white man, one voter didn't even see Black Panther because he or she think all comic book movies are trash, and another said he probably wouldn't vote for it because he or she don't want to give Disney a win.  There is also some hints of Roma getting hurt by an anit-Netflix section, and they might just give Alfonso Cuaron director, but vote elsewhere for BP.  They also think A Star is Born's downfall could be partially be a mixture of some voters being turned off by Lady GaGa's speeches and older ones comparing the film to the 1954 one.

On the other hand, the article said all twenty of them are planning on voting for Rami Malek, so, yeah, he probably has this in the bag.

Another one from the LA Times, which is proof why I never fully go 100% with my predictions, because while I still think Mahershala Ali is taking Supporting Actor, there seems to be some solid support for Richard E. Grant judging from those voters, so you never know!

Edited February 15, 2019 by thuganomics85

[Simon Boccanegra]

Thanks for that, thuganomics85. It was very interesting.  

This I found strange:  

Quote

Some voters said they lost their zeal for “A Star Is Born” after the film converted only one of its five Golden Globe nominations into a win (best song).

So...they don't want to contribute to its doing better at the Oscars? Don't get me wrong; A Star Is Born was far from my favorite film of 2018, or even my favorite of the nominees. I will not be upset if it goes 0 for 8. But if voters had "zeal" for it at some point, it should have been because they thought it was a great movie. Many people did and still do.  

But of course I get it. It's about wanting to be part of a bandwagon that has momentum rather than "wasting" one's vote. That is one of the most revealing comments in either piece. To paraphrase the protagonist of a former Best Picture winner, Academy members "love a winner and will not tolerate a loser."  

Edited February 14, 2019 by Simon Boccanegra

[kiddo82]

When I get my Oscar vote I'll have a rule that I could never vote for a movie that I flat out did not like no matter how prestigious it may seem, while at the same, time understanding that the one I like the most isn't necessarily the one I should vote for.  

[scarynikki12]

Eighth Grade just won Original Screenplay at WGA Awards. Not Green Book. The Favourite wasn’t nominated (didn’t qualify if memory serves which is different than not being liked) so this category is now a toss up. 

[scarynikki12]

And Can You Ever Forgive Me won Adapted Screenplay. I still expect Spike Lee to win come Oscar night but neither writing category is a guarantee. 

[AshleyN]

So every major guild award went to a different film:

PGA: Green Book

DGA: Roma

SAG: Black Panther

WGA: Eighth Grade and Can You Ever Forgive Me?

and you can even include ACE (editing): Bohemian Rhapsody (drama) and The Favourite (comedy)

and ASC (cinematography): Cold War

Funny that the two movies that did the best in the nomination stage walked away empty handed (A Star is Born and BlacKkKlansman).

I think the BAFTA win and the fact that it's basically a lock to win Directing puts Roma out in front for Best Picture, but wow that is a really split race. Green Book looks like the closest challenger, but the fact that it couldn't win WGA even in a Favourite-less field is a blow.

Edited February 18, 2019 by AshleyN

[ruby24]

5 hours ago, AshleyN said:

Funny that the two movies that did the best in the nomination stage walked away empty handed (A Star is Born and BlacKkKlansman).

I think the BAFTA win and the fact that it's basically a lock to win Directing puts Roma out in front for Best Picture, but wow that is a really split race. Green Book looks like the closest challenger, but the fact that it couldn't win WGA even in a Favourite-less field is a blow.

Agreed. This is an unprecedented split in the guilds. I'm starting to feel like Black Panther (the SAG winner) could actually be the movie with the biggest chance to upset Roma, because usually in split years, the SAG winner is the one that prevails, because the actors are the biggest branch in the Academy.

The only problem is that Black Panther, unlike most SAG winners, doesn't even have nominations in the other important fields, like directing, acting or writing. And it didn't get a DGA nomination either. But again, with everything so split and the actors behind it, maybe that's all it needs to pull out a squeaker. 

[Trini]

CDG Awards winners for film:

Quote

Excellence in Period Film
The Favourite, Sandy Powell

Excellence in Contemporary Film
Crazy Rich Asians, Mary E. Vogt

Excellence in Sci-Fi/Fantasy Film
Black Panther, Ruth E. Carter

[Trini]

Make-Up Artists and Hair Stylists Guild Awards winners for film categories:

Quote

BEST CONTEMPORARY MAKE-UP
A Star Is Born
Ve Neill, Debbie Zoller, Sarah Tanno

BEST CONTEMPORARY HAIR STYLING
Crazy Rich Asians
Heike Merker, Sophia Knight

BEST PERIOD AND/OR CHARACTER MAKE-UP
Vice
Kate Biscoe, Ann Pala, Williams, Jamie Kelman

BEST PERIOD AND/OR CHARACTER HAIR STYLING
Mary Queen of Scots 
Jenny Shircore, Marc Pilcher

BEST SPECIAL MAKE-UP EFFECTS
Vice 
Greg Cannom, Christopher Gallaher

[Trini]

Cinema Audio Society Awards winners for film:

Quote

MOTION PICTURE – LIVE ACTION

Bohemian Rhapsody
Production Mixer – John Casali
Re-recording Mixer – Paul Massey
Re-recording Mixer – Tim Cavagin
Re-recording Mixer – Niv Adiri, CAS
ADR Mixer – Mike Tehrani
Foley Mixer – Glen Gathard
Foley Mixer – Jemma Riley Tolch

MOTION PICTURE – ANIMATED

Isle of Dogs
Original Dialogue Mixer – Darrin Moore
Re-recording Mixer – Christopher Scarabosio
Re-recording Mixer – Wayne Lemmer
Scoring Mixer – Xavier Forcioli
Scoring Mixer – Simon Rhodes
Foley Mixer – Peter Persaud, CAS

MOTION PICTURE – DOCUMENTARY

Free Solo
Production Mixer – Jim Hurst
Re-recording Mixer – Tom Fleischman, CAS
Re-recording Mixer – Ric Schnupp
Scoring Mixer – Tyson Lozensky
ADR Mixer – David Boulton
Foley Mixer – Joana Niza Braga

[Trini]

Golden Reel Awards winners:

Quote

The Golden Reels honor the year’s best work in the various areas of sound editing: Dialogue & ADR, Effects & Foley, and Music.

Outstanding Achievement in Sound Editing – Feature Animation
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Sony Pictures Entertainment / Marvel

Outstanding Achievement in Sound Editing – Feature Documentary (Tie)
Free Solo
National Geographic Documentary Films

They Shall Not Grow Old
Wingnut Films / Fathom Events / Warner Brothers

Outstanding Achievement in Sound Editing – Foreign Language Feature
Roma
Netflix

Outstanding Achievement in Sound Editing – Music Score
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Sony Pictures Entertainment

Outstanding Achievement in Sound Editing – Musical
Bohemian Rhapsody
Fox Studios

Outstanding Achievement in Sound Editing – Dialogue / ADR
Bohemian Rhapsody
GK Films / Fox Studios

Outstanding Achievement in Sound Editing – Effects / Foley
A Quiet Place
Paramount Pictures

[VCRTracking]

Honest Trailers: Oscars 2019

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pI3T87CXM04

Edited February 20, 2019 by VCRTracking

[thuganomics85]

Last, but certainly not least, the Independent Spirit Awards are here to be al "Sorry the Academy dicked y'all over", by pretty much giving everything to If Beale Street Could Talk, giving Bo Burnham Best First Screenplay, and Won't You Be My Neighbor? getting Best Documentary, which it won't be getting tomorrow, sadly.  Also, Glenn Close nets another trophy, and Richard E. Grant either gets a consolation prize with his win, or maybe a prelude to a potential upset.  We'll see soon!

[kiddo82]

I actually thought the direction in Beale Street was odd.  There were a lot of long, lingering close ups that seemed out of place.

Edited February 24, 2019 by kiddo82

[thuganomics85]

And so ends another Oscar season!

Quote

BEST PICTURE
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
WINNER: Green Book
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice

BEST ACTRESS
Yalitza Aparicio – Roma
Glenn Close – The Wife
WINNER: Olivia Colman – The Favourite
Lady Gaga A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me?

BEST ACTOR
Christian Bale – Vice
Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe – At Eternity’s Gate
WINNER: Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen – Green Book

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams – Vice
Marina de Tavira – Roma
WINNER: Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone – The Favourite
Rachel Weisz – The Favourite

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
WINNER: Mahershala Ali – Green Book
Adam Driver – BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott – A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell – Vice

BEST DIRECTOR
Spike Lee – BlacKkKlansman
Pawel Pawlikowski – Cold War
Yorgos Lanthimos – The Favourite
Alfonso Cuarón – Roma
Adam McKay – Vice

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Favourite – Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara
First Reformed – Paul Schrader
WINNER: Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly – Green Book 
Roma – Alfonso Cuarón
Vice – Adam McKay

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs – Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
WINNER: Charlie Wachtel & David Rabinowitz and Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee – BlacKkKlansman 
Can You Ever Forgive Me? – Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty
If Beale Street Could Talk – Barry Jenkins
A Star Is Born – Eric Roth and Bradley Cooper & Will Fetters

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Łukasz Żal – Cold War
Robbie Ryan – The Favourite
Caleb Deschanel – Never Look Away
WINNER: Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Matthew Libatique – A Star Is Born

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
WINNER: Hannah Beachler; Set Decoration: Jay Hart – Black Panther
The Favourite
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
Roma

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Mary Zophres – The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
WINNER: Ruth Carter – Black Panther
Sandy Powell – The Favourite
Sandy Powell – Mary Poppins Returns
Alexandra Byrne – Mary Queen of Scots

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Border – Göran Lundström and Pamela Goldammer
Mary Queen of Scots – Jenny Shircore, Marc Pilcher and Jessica Brooks
WINNER: Greg Cannom, Kate Biscoe and Patricia Dehaney –Vice

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
WINNER: Ludwig Göransson – Black Panther
Terence Blanchard – BlacKkKlansman
Nicholas Britell – If Beale Street Could Talk
Alexandre Desplat – Isle of Dogs
Marc Shaiman – Mary Poppins Returns

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“All the Stars,” – Black Panther
“I’ll Fight,” – RBG
“The Place Where Lost Things Go,” – Mary Poppins Returns
WINNER: “Shallow,” music and kyrics by Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando and Andrew Wyatt – A Star Is Born 
“When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings,” – The Ballad of Buster Scruggs 

BEST FILM EDITING
BlacKkKlansman
WINNER: John Ottman – Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Vice

BEST SOUND EDITING
Black Panther
WINNER: John Warhurst and Nina Hartstone – Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
A Quiet Place
Roma

BEST SOUND MIXING
Black Panther
WINNER: Paul Massey, Tim Cavagin and John Casali – Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
Roma
A Star Is Born

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Avengers: Infinity War
Christopher Robin
WINNER: Paul Lambert, Ian Hunter, Tristan Myles and J. D. Schwalm – First Man 
Ready Player One
Solo: A Star Wars Story

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
WINNER: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM
Capernaum
Cold War
Never Look Away
WINNER: Roma (Mexico)
Shoplifters

BEST DOCUMENTARY
WINNER: Free Solo
Hale County This Morning, This Evening
Minding the Gap
Of Fathers and Sons
RBG

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Black Sheep
End Game
Lifeboat
A Night at the Garden
WINNER: Rayka Zehtabchi and Melissa Berton – Period. End of Sentence.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Animal Behaviour
WINNER: Bao
Late Afternoon
One Small Step
Weekends

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT
Detainment
Fauve
Marguerite
Mother
WINNER: Guy Nattiv and Jaime Ray Newman – Skin

All in all, every Best Picture nominee won something, so at least they've got that going for them.  Probably the most slightly unexpected moments were Glenn Close continuing her runner-up streak thanks to Olivia Coleman snagging Best Actress, and, in the end, the Academy went down the kind of obvious route by awarding Best Picture to Green Book.  Overall, I won't complain too much.  Not all of my favorites won, but there isn't anything that really upset me.

Except, of course, them snubbing Won't You Be My Neighbor?  I'll never forgive them for that.  Screw you, Academy!