Supergirl Scheduling and Ratings: Circulation Audits

[Kromm]

*AHEM*  I happen to watch DWTS (albeit a day later on Hulu, since I don't have cable.  It's also how I watch Supergirl the next day after IT airs).  Just how young a child am I?  :-P

mainly.  I could have been more politic about how I described the age ranges (rather than snarky), but the hard info backing it is accurate. 

 

I know there will be millions who don't fit that, but statistically that "mainly" has to be true if there's any accuracy, any at all, to the demo score and how sharply it contrasts to the HUGE total viewership tally.  That difference can only mean two things: either the ratings system is wildly inaccurate, or that a huge disproportionate percentage of DWTS' viewership is not between the ages 18-49.

 

These demo scores are always interesting. For example, back in Episode 1 of Supergirl, it seemed like even though a 3.1 18-49 demo score against a total viewership of 12.96 million was damned good, even that suggests older and younger viewers (and my theory is that a lot of actual children watched it, because some of the viral marketing for the show was pointed so strongly towards little girls (not a bad thing at all). Now compare that against this week's DWTS ratings. 1.9 18-49 demo and 12.09 million viewers. So a total viewership comparable to last week's Supergirl premiere, but an 18-49 demo FAR lower.  Or LAST week's DWTS numbers: 1.8 18-49 demo and 11.86 million total viewers. Same deal.  Both communicate that DWTS viewership is damned high, but not in that demo range.

Edited November 4, 2015 by Kromm

[CabotCove]

Sigh another ratings dive.

http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2015/11/10/tv-ratings-monday-nov-9-2015/

 

Now is the time to rescue the show and take it to the CW, no need to wait for things to get too terrible. Maybe after 13 episodes are up?.

Superhero shows have a niche audience, the big networks have too much high ratings especially CBS (thank for trying though!). The show deserve to get a few more seasons at least, but I cant see that if it stays on CBS. 

 

I also just want it on the CW for creative and crossover reasons too lol. 

[Kromm]

Sigh another ratings dive.

http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2015/11/10/tv-ratings-monday-nov-9-2015/

 

Now is the time to rescue the show and take it to the CW, no need to wait for things to get too terrible. Maybe after 13 episodes are up?.

Superhero shows have a niche audience, the big networks have too much high ratings especially CBS (thank for trying though!). The show deserve to get a few more seasons at least, but I cant see that if it stays on CBS. 

There is no precedent to do so with a CBS show. They technically own part of CW (and WB does too of course) but CW has it's own corporate structure and programming. They can't just wave a wand and hand it over to CW, like it's a junior partner.

[FurryFury]

Wow, I didn't expect it to go down so fast. Sigh.

[Kromm]

8.17 m viewers is more than acceptable. What's getting terrible is the 1.7/5 18-49 demo. Especially when DWTS came out of the basement on that and beat that demo for a change with a 2.0/6, and Blindspot had a 2.2/7 at 10pm for some reason.

 

Really the problem is that The Voice is such a juggernaut (so surprising given how decrepit and repetitive that show is getting of it's earlier seasons). And DWTS at the same time? That one leaves alone most of the prime demo, but just takes pure viewers away.

 

Rather than some impossible cross-network move, I sooner see a move to another day. Unfortunately I suspect the move could be to the Friday night graveyard--after The Amazing Race ends in that 8pm Fri spot, rather than a good slot (maybe Tuesday at 9PM would have worked, but CBS won't want to break up their NCIS Block).

Edited November 10, 2015 by Kromm

[FurryFury]

8.17 m viewers is more than acceptable.

 

Nobody cares about millions of viewers. The demo is all that matters, and while 1.7 would probably be enough to be renewed in the current TV landscape, it's only episode 3. Unless it rises/doesn't fall at all for the rest of the season, the show's dead. I doubt CBS would renew a 1.2-1.4 show that's probably quite expensive. (Unfortunately, this is my prediction).

Edited November 10, 2015 by FurryFury

[CabotCove]

No they cant just wave a wand lol, Its a long shot but I feel like its a plan (B) that need to be talked about now by the creators. Its another Berlant/WB show, they know superhero shows can be sucessful on the CW, I would hope they would fight to give life to their only female led superhero show.   

Edited November 10, 2015 by WildcardC

[Kromm]

Nobody cares about millions of viewers. The demo is all that matters, and while 1.7 would probably be enough to be renewed in the current TV landscape, it's only episode 3. Unless it rises/doesn't fall at all for the rest of the season, the show's dead. I doubt CBS would renew a 1.2-1.4 show that's probably quite expensive. (Unfortunately, this is my prediction).

By that logic, DWTS should be canceled too. Have you SEEN the 18-49 demo scores this season?  The 2.0 is a brief spike up, but it's usually been in the 1.7-1.8 range, despite huge total viewer numbers.

[BkWurm1]

Different network. CBS is more ruthless. So add me to the worry pile.

[thuganomics85]

Man, I knew the ratings would drop on some levels, but already almost tied with Gotham in the 18-49 demo, and even less then it's lead out, Scorpion?  Did not predict that would happen.

[Kromm]

I think they may grade on a curve for Monday, because The Voice/DWTS take so many viewers automatically. It's not easy for CBS to compete when their reality show stable isn't as solidly aimed at live broadcast spectaculars. They had comedies on Monday before and I suspect that's what they'll try again back there (or perhaps moving an NCIS or Hawaii Five O there) and banish Supergirl to Fridays. And then yes, probably use that to shitcan it.  But they won't embarrass themselves by making a big point of it.

Edited November 10, 2015 by Kromm

[FurryFury]

By that logic, DWTS should be canceled too. Have you SEEN the 18-49 demo scores this season?  The 2.0 is a brief spike up, but it's usually been in the 1.7-1.8 range, despite huge total viewer numbers.

First, ABC has different standards.

Second, DWTS is a reality show with wholly different costs.

Third, it's not in its first season (I don't watch reality so no idea which year it's in but it's been going on for a long time, AFAIK).

 

I'm mostly concerned because of the dynamics of the ratings. Two huge falls is really, really bad. I like the show and I hope it won't be canceled, but I've no idea if it manages to stabilized at least around 1.6.

[CabotCove]

By that logic, DWTS should be canceled too. Have you SEEN the 18-49 demo scores this season?  The 2.0 is a brief spike up, but it's usually been in the 1.7-1.8 range, despite huge total viewer numbers.

 

What season is DWTS though?, it seems like its been on air for  years. Supergirl is in its first season and as BkWurm1 noted,  different networks. CBS expects the  highest ratings of all the big networks. A 1.7 after 3 episodes wouldn't be so bad for any other network and Supergirl was supposed to be the one of the biggest shows of the season. 

Edited November 10, 2015 by WildcardC

[MarkHB]

DWTS has been around for 10 years and is currently in Season 21; I'm not sure if they had anyone special on last night to attract viewers.  The Voice is perhaps a bigger impact, since last night was the first live (=audience voting) show, they added a new "Coach's Save" twist (bring back someone who had already been eliminated during the pre-taped rounds), and it was the first live show with Blake and Gwen together since they went more-or-less public.  With all that going on, my hunch is that CBS is going to rely more on the Live+3 numbers over same-day when making their assessment. 

[stealinghome]

Nobody cares about millions of viewers. The demo is all that matters, and while 1.7 would probably be enough to be renewed in the current TV landscape, it's only episode 3. Unless it rises/doesn't fall at all for the rest of the season, the show's dead. I doubt CBS would renew a 1.2-1.4 show that's probably quite expensive. (Unfortunately, this is my prediction).

I think it depends on whether it's on the 1.2 or 1.4 end of that scale, tbh. CBS's ratings BLOW this season. They have 7--7!!!!!--dramas averaging below a 1.25, and an eighth hanging in there at 1.28. Only 6 dramas--including Supergirl--are averaging over a 1.3. If Supergirl can level off at a 1.4 and maintain, then I think CBS keeps it, for ego reasons if nothing else. If it goes down to 1.2 then yeah, it's toast.

I want to see the show go on, as I think it has potential, but I can't blame those who have tuned out. It's just not very good so far.

I reject the notion that CBS has higher standards, though. Its top drama aside from Supergirl pulls a 2.22. ABC's top is at 2.58 (NBC's 2.41). ABC only has 4 dramas (of 11) under a 1.5 and two were new; CBS has 8 of 14 dramas under a 1.5 and only one was new. I would say right now ABC is in a position to expect much more from its dramas than CBS. They have 6 total shows over a 2--counting Supergirl, CBS has just 4.

Though I would agree CBS can be pickier than NBC right now. Though even NBC has only 4 of 8 dramas under a 1.5, and one of those is a 1.49. What's killing NBC is its comedies, which are horrendous.

Edited November 11, 2015 by stealinghome

[icewolf]

They should have just put Supergirl on the CW.

[Kromm]

They should have just put Supergirl on the CW.

Who is "they"? 

[Delphi]

They should have just put Supergirl on the CW.

The CW shouldn't have passed on it. Didn't the head honcho guy say he regrets passing on the show?

[Kromm]

The show's expense would have to be the deciding factor (assuming the ratings somehow stay at that 1.7 demo and don't nosedive again). I mean just looking at some scattered numbers last week (and sticking to one hour dramas) I see on Sunday (what in other years might have been a good strong night for TV viewing) The Good Wife got a 1.1/3 18-49. Madame Secretary, which I thought had been a juggernaut at one point, got a 1.4/4. Once Upon A Time a 1.5/4. CSI Cyber a 0.8/3.  On Monday, besides Supergirl and the big reality shows, Blindspot got the "big" ratings with a 2.2/7, but the next after that was only Scorpion with 1.8/5 and then even tentpoles like NCIS:LA and Castle getting 1.2/4 and 1.0/3 respectively. Tuesday you have Original Recipe NCIS getting 2.2/7, and 1.7/5 for NCIS: New Orleans and Chicago Fire getting 2.1/7. Limitless got a 1.5/5. Agents of SHIELD in the dumper with 1.3/4.

 

The lesson seems to be that if you aren't a franchise show, you're fucked. And even there the spinoffs aren't in any kind of totally secure position with that demo score. Blindspot and to a lesser degree the crowd-pleasing Scorpion seem to be the (so-far) exceptions.

 

In this environment, a 1.7, if the show actually somehow stuck there (let's be honest and admit that's unlikely) doesn't sound so disastrous. The show can't cost more than Agents of SHIELD over on ABC, which gets even less in the ratings department. 

 

I think Broadcast TV is just dead, fucked, other than big event reality shows. One assumes streaming totals would bring this all up if it's being recorded and reported correctly, but I doubt it IS. The Nielson system isn't reporting that stuff correctly, I think (not that they can even get NEAR reporting on illegal streams, but even the legal ones may not be properly represented by Nielson families and whatever reporting THEY do--or whatever other meters they use to try and merge those guestimates into the normal demo numbers). I mean a stream is anonymous, so you wouldn't even KNOW how it fits in a demo, assuming it wasn't a duly recorded Nielson person TELLING you who they are and what they are watching.

[MarkHB]

Forget about the post-Super Bowl spot; they're giving it to Stephen Colbert.

[statsgirl]

Trying to breath life into a dying format? With the internet, there really is less need for late night talk shows which give you at most 5 minutes with a "star" shilling their latest show or movie.

 

 

In this environment, a 1.7, if the show actually somehow stuck there (let's be honest and admit that's unlikely) doesn't sound so disastrous.

I can remember when House M.D. was pulling 8 or more regularly in its first couple of seasons, and that was just 9 years ago.  It's moved so fast, broadcasters and rating agencies haven't been able to keep up.

[Kromm]

Forget about the post-Super Bowl spot; they're giving it to Stephen Colbert.

Can't blame them. Ultimately they've sunk a lot more money into Colbert, and the benefits of increasing his ratings will be far bigger since he could be at that job for another 20 years if they increase his profile.

[stealinghome]

Surprised they gave it to Colbert; I thought for sure they'd give it to Limitless. Interesting.

 

I think Broadcast TV is just dead, fucked, other than big event reality shows.

This. The problem is that the Nielsen company/broadcast TV itself is the last to know.

[MarkHB]

This isn't specifically about Supergirl, but I saw a piece a year or so ago that discussed the "who won the season" factoid that some network proudly announces every May.  The story basically said that so far as that stat (most primetime viewers overall) goes, scripted shows are irrelevant no matter the network.  Reality shows are irrelevant.  Primetime news magazines are irrelevant.  "Who won the season" nowadays hinges on two things: the Super Bowl and the Olympics.

 

I agree with @stealinghome who said that if Supergirl levels off at a 1.4 or so, it'll be fine.

[jaytee1812]

They should have just put Supergirl on the CW.

We would lose two of the best parts of this show. We wouldn't have the Kara/Alex relationship as Kara's most important relationship. And Jimmy Olsen would not be played by Mechad Brooks.

[fastiller]

We would lose two of the best parts of this show. We wouldn't have the Kara/Alex relationship as Kara's most important relationship. And Jimmy Olsen would not be played by Mechad Brooks.

Why do you say that?

[jaytee1812]

Why do you say that?

Women do not get to prioritise each other over men, and black men to not play the love interests, unless of course they're 'bad boys'

[fastiller]

Women do not get to prioritise each other over men, and black men to not play the love interests, unless of course they're 'bad boys'

Gotcha.

[MarkHB]

Supergirl gets decent jump in Live+3 ratings.  This is for last week, though, so including Episode 2 rather than 3. 

[Kromm]

Supergirl gets decent jump in Live+3 ratings.  This is for last week, though, so including Episode 2 rather than 3. 

That's DVR playback of Nielson subscribers, right?

 

I suppose if streaming data was reliable on TOP of that, the jump might be even more.

[legaleagle53]

Any way you look at it, though, I don't think this show is going anywhere just yet.  I think CBS will still give it time to find both its voice and its audience, especially since its two main competitors (Dancing with the Stars and The Voice) will be ending their fall runs in just a couple of weeks.

[Kromm]

Any way you look at it, though, I don't think this show is going anywhere just yet.  I think CBS will still give it time to find both its voice and its audience, especially since its two main competitors (Dancing with the Stars and The Voice) will be ending their fall runs in just a couple of weeks.

Okay, but what are those being replaced with?

 

ABC it's probably The Bachelor/ette, right?  That may not be any better for the ratings competition. 

 

EDIT - Okay, it depends on if Supergirl is going to have new episode through the Holiday season or not. ABC's competition during the Holidays is "The Great Christmas Light Fight". If The Bachelor is there in January, but Supergirl actually airs new content in December and somehow picks up viewers, that'll be great.

 

NBC is putting up two new sitcoms, "Superstore" and "Telenovela".  Actually I think they're screwed with that.

 

FOX will have X-Files coming up though, and for a month in sweeps (February), that's going to scoop up viewers that Gotham didn't in that spot.

Edited November 14, 2015 by Kromm

[Starfish35]

CBS Replaces Monday's Terrorism-Themed Supergirl, NCIS: LA Episodes in Wake of Paris Attacks

CBS has pulled Monday’s originally-scheduled episodes of Supergirl and NCIS: Los Angeles in the wake of Friday’s terrorist attacks in Paris that left nearly 130 people dead.

Different episodes of each series will air instead. According to a CBS insider, the move was made “out of sensitivity and respect to the events that occurred.”

The scrapped Supergirl episode. titled “How Does She Do It?” had Kara dealing with bombings throughout National City. It will be replaced by the Thanksgiving-themed “Livewire,” which was originally scheduled to air the following week.

http://tvline.com/2015/11/15/supergirl-paris-attacks-cbs-schedule/

Also reported on Deadline:

http://deadline.com/2015/11/supergirl-ncis-los-angeles-terrorism-themed-episodes-replaced-paris-attacks-1201624282/

Edited to update quote.

Edited November 15, 2015 by Starfish35

[Kromm]

Given that the episodes of Supergirl seem to have at least a little serial content,, I'm going to bet this is going to screw up some plot for us.

[FurryFury]

Yep, that's lamentable, considering the show's serialized to an extent.

[Kromm]

I also think people may start posting in the wrong episode thread, so I used the report button on that existing thread to ask them to lock it.

 

But the out of order thing is just going to get people mad, I bet. There's already a shit ton of nitpicking going on for the show, and I bet this will make it even worse.

[Trini]

Thanks for the heads up.

[quarks]

Regarding cancellation fears, this is yet another place where it would be interesting to have access to the Amazon, iTunes and Google Play numbers, beyond CBS stating in quarterly earnings reports that post-view revenue for non-sports shows currently exceeds live view revenue, I don't know how much, if at all, CBS factors in that post-view revenue when determining renewal/cancellation. 

[legaleagle53]

The ratings are up:  http://tvline.com/2015/11/17/supergirl-season-1-ratings/

 

As I said, this show isn't going anywhere just yet.

[stealinghome]

Yeah, I'm expecting CBS to pick it up for a full season this week.

[thuganomics85]

Whelp, it fell back down to 7.19 million and 1.5 in the 18-49 demo, but it sounds like almost every show had a drop of some kind last night.  Maybe everyone is busy prepping for the holidays?  Or do I just have a case of Fan Excuse Bingo?

Edited November 24, 2015 by thuganomics85

[jaytee1812]

Wasn't it the DWTS finale last night?

Plus I think a lot of people might've thought they could miss this ep, they've seen the next.

[MarkHB]

DWTS finale plus the draw (for better or worse) of the Patriots on Monday Night Football.  Note that the prelim DWTS numbers are inflated as the ABC affiliates in both Boston and Buffalo were showing the game.  I'm interested in the L+3 numbers that will come out at the end of the week.

 

One thing that gave me cause for concern: Supergirl didn't get a mention in CBS's L+7 press release this past Friday.

[MarkHB]

Monday's cable ratings are out; Monday Night Football went from a 4.2 last week to a 5.1 A18-49 this week, so if anyone asks where the eyeballs were, "watching TB12" is your answer :)

 

As I said, I'm looking forward to the L+3 numbers Friday.

[Kromm]

Whelp, it fell back down to 7.19 million and 1.5 in the 18-49 demo, but it sounds like almost every show had a drop of some kind last night.  Maybe everyone is busy prepping for the holidays?  Or do I just have a case of Fan Excuse Bingo?

Even a 1.5 doesn't seem bottom of the drawer in this horrible season for CBS 1 hour dramas in the 18-49 demos. Just as a point of comparison look at some Sunday CBS dramas... The Good Wife got a 0.89 this week. Madam Secretary got a 1.11. CSI Cyber got a 0.88. CBS drama is in the toilet overall. Even the magical NCIS family, which you'd expect to auto-get ratings is. Monday's NCIS: LA got a 1.20, for example.

 

That pile of shit, Scorpion (also Monday), was the only holdout... but even that only got a 1.7. 

[Trini]

Supergirl has been dropping, but it's still one of CBS' highest rated shows (and the highest-rated new show). What does concern me is that they haven't picked up the 'back 9' for a full season; but then again, it only been 5 episodes? I think they will, though; I'm more worried about if there'll be a season 2.

Edited November 29, 2015 by Trini

[statsgirl]

I just had a look at my TV listings and on Monday, not only is Supergirl up against The Voice (semi?) finalists and Gotham, it's up against the celebration of the 50th anniversary of the Charlie Brown Christmas special.  Yikes.  (As much as I like this show, Peanuts!  50th Anniversary! music!)

[legaleagle53]

I just had a look at my TV listings and on Monday, not only is Supergirl up against The Voice (semi?) finalists and Gotham, it's up against the celebration of the 50th anniversary of the Charlie Brown Christmas special.  Yikes.  (As much as I like this show, Peanuts!  50th Anniversary! music!)

 

Which doesn't matter to me, as I can only watch any of them a day later online.

[statsgirl]

But doesn't it matter for the ratings?  It feels like this episode is already sunk in terms of its ratings and it hasn't even played yet.

 

They really need to find a new way to measure the popularity/worth of a show.

[MarkHB]

I hate to say it, but they don't care about measuring the popularity or worth of a show; what they care about measuring is how many people actually watch the commercials within the show. I saw the Nielsen people-meter FAQ online, and their boxes actually listen to the audio in the room, so they know if you fast-forwarded the ads or not.