S30: Previews and Speculations

[Lantern7]

Regarding the teaser . . . I am prepared to root for Shirin in her argument against Will. I mean, Will is just there, like so much flotsam. I can't imagine a scenario where he wins, or gets to Day 39. Shirin probably has less of a chance of doing either of those things, but at least she's interesting to watch.

[ProfCrash]

Speculation here

 

Sierra has made a couple of comments about not wanting to work with Blue Collar and wanting to work with women. So here is my dream scenario (I totally know it won't happen but what the hell, a girl can dream)

 

Sierra has a talking head about knowing that she needed to work with Blue Collar far enough into the game to give her the chance to take out the remaining three folks. In order to do that, she stayed with Mike and comp to get the numbers to a manageable level. Now she can rally the others to take out Mike. He is a big threat and Jenn and Shirin are not good in challenges. Take out Mike will excite Rodney (obviously) and satisfy Carolyn, Tyler, and Will who are the ultimate floaters and are in a final four with Rodney. Mike won't see it coming because he trusts Sierra and Rodney is so excited to get Mike out he will keep his mouth shut. No one tells Dan. Mike goes home with the idol in his pocket.

 

With Mike gone, Dan is left on his own. Sierra reels Dan in with Shirin and Jenn to take out Rodney, who is a big threat and probably trumpeting how he is control of the game and took out Mike. This is Rodney after all. Tyler, Carolyn and Will are cool with that because they are floaters and as long as it is not them, they are good. They are not going to want a tie vote, so they vote with Sierra and Dan and Rodney goes home.

 

So now we have Sierra, Jenn, Shirin vs Tyler, Carolyn, and Will with Dan in the middle. Dan will see Jenn and Shirin as ideal goats, because he is such a master of the game. He will see Sierra's flip as a fatal move and align with the women in order to take out the floaters.

 

Dan can't win squat, and goes out at the final three.

 

Sierra, Jenn, and Shirin are the final three. The Blue Collar guys can't vote for Sierra because she was responsible for their demise and they hate her. Jenn was obnoxious in a different way then Sierra and is not all that great in the final tribal. Shirin is great on the jury. She owns up to an intentional goat strategy to get to the end and clearly articulates her case. She doesn't get overly emotional as the others go after her.

 

Shirin gets Mike and Rodney vote because they cannot vote for Sierra and Jenn is just that awful at final tribal and is obnoxious in her own way. She gets Dan's vote because as a super fan he respects that she got to the end and did a great job in the jury portion. She gets Tyler vote because she really isn't that obnoxious and she is White Collar. Shirin gets Hali's vote because of her underdog status and her jury behavior.

 

Jenn gets Will's vote for being No Collar and because he dislikes Jenn and Sierra. Jenn gets Joe's vote because of the No Collar thing.

 

Sierra gets Carolyn's vote because she won't vote for Shirin or Jenn because they are obnoxious.

 

Shirin wins. 5-2-1

[peachmangosteen]

I love that scenario! The only way to save this season for me is for Shirin to win and if the remaining women (minus Carolyn) can band together to change the game and get out the only real threats then I would just be ecstatic. An alliance of women running the game is literally always my dream!

 

When the hell is the 'game changing move' and twist coming? There's only 5 episodes left! I'm starting to think we've actually already seen both and they just didn't live up to Probst's hype at all. Like I think the twist really might've just been the 'honest or deceive' thing and the 'game changing move' was probably what happened in this ep.

Edited April 16, 2015 by peachmangosteen

[Alapaki]

I thought Shirin got a very good edit last night.  They showed her really trying to play the game.  And the preview suggests that we're going to see more of her next week.  

 

Maybe this is a product of having too long of a commute that gives me time to think, because this would be a bit of eleventy-dimensional chess, but I thought that what we saw from Jenn last night was completely out of character with what we've seen of her so far.  I would've expected Jenn to be trying to work angles the way we saw Shirin do last night.

 

And I also thought that Joe's throwing Jenn under the bus and distancing himself from her was odd as well.  "Keep me around because I really want to be here and try to win" is not the best argument when you've already shown yourself to be an immunity challenge threat.

 

Is it possible that Jenn and Joe were playing a bit of "don't throw me into the briar patch" in order to save Jenn?  

[peachmangosteen]

Is it possible that Jenn and Joe were playing a bit of "don't throw me into the briar patch" in order to save Jenn?  

 

I don't really think so. I actually don't think Jenn and Joe were all that close from a gameplay standpoint. The extra vids from last week show that Jenn was getting annoyed with Joe because he wasn't even talking to Jenn/Hali after the merge and that her/Hali/Shirin were all ready to vote Joe out because he was a threat to everyone. I think once Hali was voted out Jenn felt completely alone and had the sudden realization that she hated everyone and had no chance of winning so she started feeling sorry for herself and gave up. But I do think there's a good chance she could buck up again and decide to fight now because, like she said, there is still a part of her that really loves the game.

[joshmaeks]

So EW revealed the twist. I won't say it here in case someone doesn't want to know. I just wish they'd done it last week before Joe left.

[pennben]

To be honest, as much as Joe is a good guy, I'm glad he's gone, only because I think it is the only chance to blow this season wide open.

[Lantern7]

Somebody in the latest episode thread figured we could get a Dan/Rodney/Will finale. If that happens, I will be ill. Also, the winner would probably get more attention from Probst at the Reunion than Natalie did last season.

[Way Wes Jr]

I mentioned in the episode thread that I couldn't believe they didn't give us a reaction at the immunity challenge when JiffyPop didn't say anything about Dan having an advantage.  I'm going to guess that Tyler and Carolyn are going to act out a little scene where they discuss the IC, leading to Tyler making the, "I need to get into his bag," comment.

 

I've only bailed on two Seasons, the first two of the R Hantz trilogy, but I'm coming really close to shutting it down for this season.  Not only are the players horrible (both as players and as human beings,) but the editing has changed from telling an overall story, to trying to make each episode its own individual thing.  This trend started last season, and while it has given a couple of good episodes, (the telegraphed boot of the Christie brother last season comes to mind,) it has completely made for a confusing season.

[peachmangosteen]

So, according to Sierra in one of the extra vids, Shirin did in fact go to her and Rodney, at least, and tell them about the box and put forth the idea that Will was lying. I still obviously think Will is heinous for how he responded, but it's interesting that happened and yet was not shown. Even though I personally doubt there's anything they could show me that would make me understand or forgive the abuse Shirin has gotten this season, the editing does seem to be going out of it's way to protect Shirin and is showing the others in the worst light possible. I have been thinking for awhile now that Shirin is possibly getting a winner's edit and this is just more fuel to that fire. But I honestly do not see how it could happen.

Edited April 23, 2015 by peachmangosteen

[Special K]

So, according to Sierra in one of the extra vids, Shirin did in fact go to her and Rodney, at least, and tell them about the box and put forth the idea that Will was lying. I still obviously think Will is heinous for how he responded, but it's interesting that happened and yet was not shown. Even though I personally doubt there's anything they could show me that would make me understand or forgive the abuse Shirin has gotten this season, the editing does seem to be going out of it's way to protect Shirin and is showing the others in the worst light possible. I have been thinking for awhile now that Shirin is possibly getting a winner's edit and this is just more fuel to that fire. But I honestly do not see how it could happen.

 

I agree -- it could be they are setting up a Phoenix-from-the-ashes victory for Shirin and the downfall of all her sorry foes.  Wouldn't that be grand!?

 

A girl can hope.

[scowl]

I agree -- it could be they are setting up a Phoenix-from-the-ashes victory for Shirin and the downfall of all her sorry foes.  Wouldn't that be grand!?

Probst did say that the winner will be "iconic". I doubt his definition of iconic includes an awkward woman like Shirin. 

[Special K]

Unless she's the ultimate "underdog"?!?  That would be iconic to me -- or perhaps more  n archetype -- but, I agree, probably not to JP.  Because:  no penis.

[kikaha]

Probst did say that the winner will be "iconic". I doubt his definition of iconic includes an awkward woman like Shirin. 

Special K beat me to it.  Probst LOVES underdogs who overachieve.  But I disagree with SK that Jeff wouldn't count Shirin because she's not a man.  He loved Cirie, in part for this very reason.  Shirin could be the perfect example of a Probstian underdog. 

 

I have no idea if she wins.  Just that I think she could fit his iconic description quite well. 

[pennben]

Well, since it has become apparent that Probst does not understand the meaning of simple phrases, such as "best cast", "great season", "best episode", "must watch", I'm really not going to rely on his interpretation of a word like "iconic". 

 

To riff on a thought about what is left out when one spells "team", there's no "vagina" in "iconic", at least that's what I think Probst thinks..

Edited April 23, 2015 by pennben

[Haleth]

Not to mention "jump the shark."

[truthaboutluv]

The only thing that can turn this season around is next week for Sierra and Dan to buy a clue, work with Mike and Shirin and go after one of Tyler/Will/Rodney and Carolyn. They can pull it off because of Dan's two votes making the votes 5-4. Unfortunately the preview gave away Tyler finding out about those two votes and running to tell Carolyn. So I can so see a situation where they'll decide to target her and she'll play that idol that no one but Tyler knows she has. Because this season has been nothing but one giant disappointment after another for me. 

[LadyChatts]

The only people who are getting any shred of a decent edit are Shirin and Mike.  One could argue Tyler, Carolyn, and Sierra, if they bothered to focus on them.  Tyler's starting to emerge as more of a game player, and all 3 current Ponderosa members mentioned him being a threat to win it.  From post boot interviews, it sounded like Carolyn is fitting the theme of the season of doing nothing but riding coattails and being a by stander.  However, I don't know how Tyler would be considered "iconic" unless he does something drastic coming up.  Since I disagree with Jeff's definition on pretty much everything, I'm a little terrified.  At first I was thinking Mike could fit the iconic mold every way they want to spin it.  I'm still calling him as the winner, and at this point I guess he could be an underdog.  Sierra wouldn't be iconic, I don't think Carolyn would, and I don't believe Dan or Will have any chance in hell of winning.  If the Survivor Gods decide to frown on us, it'll probably be the first time in Survivor history a winner is booed.  Shirin could probably get votes from Jenn, Hali, and Joe.  No one else seemed to like her, so unless Will's blow up garnered sympathy for her, or she's sitting next to Will and Dan (poor thing), I don't see how she could win, either.

[kikaha]

I just read part of an interview with Jenn, posted in the Jenn thread.  She says, "Ponderosa, the 10 or 11 days I was there, were literally the best 10 or 11 days of my life. I was with people that I loved, I was having the greatest time, I loved every second of it. There was not a moment of it that I was unhappy. It was the best. I loved those people and I still do, but it was like being on vacation with your friends."

 

Jenn loves (IMO) Shirin, and maybe Mike.  I'm pretty sure she can't stand Will or Carolyn.  I don't think Dan is among her favorite people either. 

 

Maybe a hint that Shirin and Mike get booted soon -- while Carolyn, Will and Dan stay in the game to near the end? 

 

PS: probably can add Sierra to the group of friends.  So I'm wondering if the next boots are Shirin, Mike and Sierra? 

[LadyChatts]

Outside of the show, the closest seem to be Jenn, Joe, Hali, Mike, Shirin, Sierra, and Tyler.  I don't know if Tyler is as tight as the others, but he's been to visit them in their hometowns and all of them (except Hali and Shirin) went to visit Joe recently.  Joe, Mike, Hali, and Jenn all went to Hawaii together.  It seems like Mike jet sets all over visiting his fellow Survivors.  Mike seems close to almost everyone, although not sure if that'll be the case now after seeing the show.  I won't be surprised if Shirin goes next.  Mike has the idol, so if he doesn't win immunity, he's got that.  He'll no doubt be targeted, but the others might split the vote and get Shirin out.  After that, it could be Mike.  And Sierra no doubt will be deemed too nice and likable so she could follow suit.  That's why I think she might be sorry for not flipping or just assuming she'd coast to the final 3 and win because of who she was sitting next to.  Which leaves us potentially with a final 5 of Rodney, Will, Tyler, Dan, and Carolyn.  Yikes.  However, more times than not, someone is the thorn in everyone's side by winning immunity's or bringing an idol into play, so if Mike hangs in there, the others will have to turn on each other.  That's where a Sierra blindside could come from.

[Special K]

Wouldn't it be great if Dan gets so pissed about Tyler and Carolyn going through his bag, tearfully recalls Mike's stirring "we built this city" speech, and flips back to Mike and Shirin?!?  Mike wins Individual Immunity and gives Shirin his idol (or vice versa), and/or Dan uses his extra vote to shift the balance back:

 

Sierra, Carolyn, Tyler, Will, Rodney: vote for Mike or Shirin (5 votes, do NOT count!)

Mike, Shirin, Dan, Dan's other vote: vote for any of the above (4 votes that DO count!)

 

Hell, they don't even need to use Dan's second vote.

 

Then pick the rest of the Carolyn/Tyler alliance off, and Mike, Dan, and Shirin go to FTC.  This would be the only way I could abide Dan staying in the game longer.  As Spencer has said on twitter, he has 0% chance of winning anyway.

 

ETA:  Oops, I forgot Rodney!  (Wishful thinking...?)

Edited April 24, 2015 by Special K

[Cutty]

Maybe a hint that Shirin and Mike get booted soon -- while Carolyn, Will and Dan stay in the game to near the end? 

 

PS: probably can add Sierra to the group of friends.  So I'm wondering if the next boots are Shirin, Mike and Sierra? 

 

Could be, although after last season I don't put as much stock into exit interviews. I remember everyone spoke ill of Baylor last season and nearly everyone said they loved Natalie and Jaclyn, so that made me think Baylor must've made it to the end. The last few boots only spend a few days at Ponderosa anyway.

Edited April 24, 2015 by Cutty

[Haleth]

I could see Dan and Sierra flipping back to Mike after Shirin is voted out. They may still be all rah-rah, blue collars and want to get Carolyn, Will, and especially challenge threat Tyler out next. Dan's extra vote will come in handy.

[peachmangosteen]

Good point. Let's assume Shirin is voted out in next week's ep. Maybe the next week Dan and Sierra rejoin Mike and use Dan's extra vote. Still though, it would be a tie and I don't really see Sierra especially being willing to let it go to a tie.

[jsm1125]

Good point. Let's assume Shirin is voted out in next week's ep. Maybe the next week Dan and Sierra rejoin Mike and use Dan's extra vote. Still though, it would be a tie and I don't really see Sierra especially being willing to let it go to a tie.

Wouldn't it make more sense for Dan to use his extra vote next week, giving himself, Sierra, Mike and Shirin the majority?

[peachmangosteen]

Well, yes, but Haleth specced that they may decide to flip back to Mike after Shirin is voted off and I could see them being willing to do that but not wanting to work with Shirin. Now, that's idiotic, but Dan and Sierra haven't really proven themselves to be that smart.

 

But to be fair to them, they really have no chance of beating Mike but there's a minuscule chance they could beat Rodney/Will/Carolyn/Tyler.

Edited April 24, 2015 by peachmangosteen

[cooker30]

When I analyze the indidual player edits (which is probaly an exercise in futility given how wonky the overall editing has been) I really think the only possible winners are Shirin or Mike. And I think Shirin moreso than Mike.

She was shown being overly annoying but after Hali talked to her we haven't seen nearly as much. We keep hearing how she doesn't have numbers and how nobody likes her yet she's still there. We've been told she can't possibly win over and over - what would be the point if she really doesn't win? I also really think this past episode pointed to her winning in a couple of ways. First we are now hearing that she had her own things to say during the Will attack yet we were only shown her as being attacked for zero reason. Again, why not show at least some of what said (and this is assuming she really did have some negative things to say) unless she ends up winning and they don't want her seen too negatively. The second clue to me is Mike's edit this past week - we were shown his many mistakes and it felt like the beginning of a "how Mike loses the game" story. Telling us why someone loses more than why someone wins is something they have done before most notably with Sophie and Coach.

Finally, I think Shirin would fit Jeff's description of "iconic" because she is a superfan underdog that overcame all odds. She's pretty much the female Cochrane and I think Jeff considers him iconic. Then there's the whole "Shakespearian" thing. I can see "good winning over evil" fitting the description (my Shakespeare recall is fuzzy ATM but Macbeth and Othello have that theme.) So yeah, my money is on her as winner.

I've come up with scenerio that gets her to FTC and enough jury votes but don't want to add to my wall of text. I will post that separately.

[Special K]

...I think Shirin would fit Jeff's description of "iconic" because she is a superfan underdog that overcame all odds. She's pretty much the female Cochrane and I think Jeff considers him iconic. Then there's the whole "Shakespearian" thing. I can see "good winning over evil" fitting the description

 

I agree with this and hope it's true.  It explains a lot of the editing.  And he did love his Cochran.

 

Re: "Iconic," I think JP's idea of mythology, however, is more "Revenge of the Nerds" than Shakespeare.  Either is fine with me.

[Tippi]

I've been thinking about this iconic thing, too.  Shirin came to mind because she is the ultimate outcast.  I could see it being Mike if he can get back into control after it looks like he is really on the outs. Plus, he could be considered a "working class hero."   Or it could be Rodney because he would have to be one of the most aggressively unlikeable winners the show has ever had.  But, even though I don't like him, he is playing a great strategic game (so far.)

 

Or, perhaps the winner is someone who never won an individual challenge?  Has that ever happened before?  I could see that being considered iconic if that is the case.

[jsm1125]

I've been thinking about this iconic thing, too.  Shirin came to mind because she is the ultimate outcast.  I could see it being Mike if he can get back into control after it looks like he is really on the outs. Plus, he could be considered a "working class hero."   Or it could be Rodney because he would have to be one of the most aggressively unlikeable winners the show has ever had.  But, even though I don't like him, he is playing a great strategic game (so far.)

 

Or, perhaps the winner is someone who never won an individual challenge?  Has that ever happened before?  I could see that being considered iconic if that is the case.

Yul, Earl, Todd, Natalie White, Sandra, and Tony never won an individual immunity.

[peachmangosteen]

I've come up with scenerio that gets her to FTC and enough jury votes but don't want to add to my wall of text. I will post that separately.

 

I look forward to seeing your spec for how Shirin can get the end and win. I too think she's getting the winner's edit but I just can't see how she could possibly win!

Edited April 24, 2015 by peachmangosteen

[LadyChatts]

I look forward to seeing your spec for how Shirin can get the end and win. I too think she's getting the winner's edit but I just can't see how she could possibly win!

 

Me neither.  The only thing that might turn it around for her is if she keeps getting bullied and it gets back to the jurors.  They may not want to reward anyone else in the final 3 for their antics.  I'm still assuming someone is going to get blindsided out of Rodney's group, and since it gets close to the end, they may harbor ill feelings.  So that could be another vote for Shirin, out of spite.  It seemed like a lot of people were annoyed with Shirin out there, because all she did was talk Survivor.  Since she was the only ally for the NC tribe after the merge, I can see them giving her votes.  I guess it depends what their criteria for voting is.  Do they vote for someone who played the game, even if they didn't like them.  Which is why I believe Sierra may stand no shot of winning.  She's nice, but she's done nothing.  I still think Mike or Tyler are the front runners to win.

[Haleth]

I would love it if Shirin is dragged along as the perceived goat by Rodney (or whoever), only to win because Rodney (or whoever) burned too many bridges in getting everyone else booted. Watching him go from smug to "what just happened?" would be epic.

Edited April 24, 2015 by Haleth

[peachmangosteen]

I think Tyler is a front runner to win to the players during the game, but his edit makes it almost impossible for me to think he has a chance.

 

I guess Shirin could maybe win if she somehow got to the end with Dan/Will. She'd most likely have Joe/Jenn/Hali/Mike's votes, but she'd still need one more. I guess I could see Sierra voting for her in that case maybe, but I could just as easily see her voting for Dan honestly. Plus, I can't fathom a scenario where Shirin, Dan, and Will would be at the end together.

 

I would love it if Shirin is dragged along as the perceived goat by Rodney (or whoever), only to win because Rodney (or whoever) burned too many bridges in getting everyone else booted. Watching him go from smug to "what just happened?" would be epic.

 

This would be amazing and honestly would fit Probst's 'iconic' description, I think.

[cooker30]

I would love it if Shirin is dragged along as the perceived goat by Rodney (or whoever), only to win...

That's pretty much my spec for how Shirin gets to FTC:) Two possible clues to this happening are the fact that we've repeatedly heard how she would get zero votes and also Will's comment about leaving her in the game to torture her. I think they showed him saying that because it comes back to haunt them. Plus that would be kind of Shakespearian - they think they're hurting her but she gets the last laugh.

I believe the key to her winning is for Mike, Tyler and possibly Rodney to be on the jury. I think her ideal F3 would be her, Dan and Will but it would work with Sierra, Carolyn and maybe Rodney as well.

I think she would get Hali, Joe and Jenn's votes because she was able to outlast as an underdog and I can't see them respecting the game play of Dan, Will, Sierra or Carolyn. I think Mike votes with his heart for her especially if there is no blue collar option. That would be 4 votes and that's all she would need as long as one of the other 4 jury members votes for the third place finisher.

So say it's Shirin, Dan and Will. She gets the 4 votes from H, J, J, and M. Dan gets Rodney, Tyler and Carolyn. And Sierra finally gets her revenge on Dan by voting Will. Shirin wins 4-3-1:)

One thing that gives me pause is how they were emphasizing the whole "a blue collar will win!" thing. But I still think her edit should mean she wins. I guess I'll either look like an idiot of the next couple of eps or smart after the finale;)

[Alapaki]

I think that, generally speaking, there are two ways for Finalists to get votes at FTC: "positive" votes (i.e. votes based upon their gameplay, either "Social Game" or "Strategic Game"); and "negative" votes (i.e. votes that are really votes against the other finalists).

 

The problem I have gaming out this season's FTC is that I can't see most of the remaining players pulling many "positive" votes.  So it really comes down to who they're up against.

 

I do agree that Shirin probably gets the 3 NC jurors' votes.  And if Mike ends up on the Jury, I think she might get his vote as well.  As others of you point out, in a F3, 4 votes can be enough if there's a 3-way split.

 

I'm not sure that Tyler and/or Carolyn get many BC juror votes because the BCs will see Carolyn and Tyler as having been carried along by the BCs.  If it's a Tyler/Carolyn/BC FTC, then it's possible that Tyler wins because the BC jurors might feel betrayed by the BC finalist.

 

But in a Tyler/Carolyn/Shirin FTC, I might actually bet on Shirin as getting the NC votes + Mike + a BC or two based on her underdog status.

 

And I even think in a Dan/Sierra/Shirin FTC Shirin has a decent chance.  I think she gets the NC + Mike, and possibly Rodney (who wouldn't want to vote for either of the other two).

 

How she gets there?

 

As I suggested in the episode thread, I think Dan/Sierra may shift over to Mike/Shirin and use Dan's extra-vote to have a 5-4 advantage over Rodney/Tyler/Carolyn/Will. They could then Pagong down to F4 (although it's possible that they try to pull in Will and blind-side Mike before that).  If Mike doesn't win F4 immunity he's out.  That leaves a Dan/Sierra/Shirin FTC.

 

I think there are other paths to Shirin making FTC (as a presumed goat).  If she can do something in terms of gameplay, she might be able to win as an underdog rather than a "goat".

[Wings]

So Jeff says the winner is iconic and he loves this season.  We don't have his perspective; he knows the outcome and makes these statements having had time to gather his wits.  I know I have often changed my mind on how good a season was after it's over.  

 

Going on these 2 facts I think Mike may win.  There is certainly an argument for that, at this point.  

 

Jeff loves someone who works hard at playing the game.  He favors strong men.  Iconic (in his mind) may mean someone who won against all  odds.  Mike, right now, has to flip some people to make this happen and win ICs from there on out.   

 

I cannot see an icon in the group beyond this theory and who Jeff would consider deserving of this title. 

[Eggman]

I'm thinking iconic means "no pants".

[riff-raff]

Sadly, the first person I thought of when JP said the winner would be "iconic" was Rodney.   He is like the love-child of Boston Rob and Russell on steroids.   And we know how the producers felt about those two.

 

I'm holding out a slender reed of hope that it could be Mike or Shirin.  

[ProfCrash]

I started discussing this in the Shirin thread but it probably belongs here.

 

So here is what I would love to see happen...

 

This week: Neither Mike or Shirin wins individual immunity. Rodney/Carolyn/Will/Tyler/Sierra/Dan vote Mike. Mike plays his hidden immunity idol. Tyler or Carolyn go home. Tyler if he is not the person who won immunity. I think that Mike and Shirin realize that Tyler and Carolyn are in a strong spot in the group of six. Mike knows that Tyler was the voice of reason in Rodney's conversation last week and realizes that Rodney is more likely to explode with Tyler gone. Mike also thinks he can work with Dan and Sierra still. Shirin is fine with sending Tyler home and thrilled to send Carolyn home. I kind of want it to be Carolyn so she goes out with an idol.

 

I know Shirin would love to lose Will or Rodney but in terms of people who are easier to beat in challenges and at final tribal, Tyler or Carolyn are better folks to send home.

[Wings]

Sadly, the first person I thought of when JP said the winner would be "iconic" was Rodney.   He is like the love-child of Boston Rob and Russell on steroids.   And we know how the producers felt about those two.

 

I'm holding out a slender reed of hope that it could be Mike or Shirin.  

 

I can see Rodney being iconic in Jeff's mind.  I hope Mike wins at this point. 

 

I don't understand the love for Shirin that many are expressing.  I don't find her compelling and she is not playing the game at all.  

 

I cannot believe I am about to say, I would be okay with Rodney winning if Mike is out.  He is so outrageous but as someone said in an interview (Jenn?), she appreciated that you know what to expect, though he was outrageous he was genuine.  Or something to that effect.   I am not a fan of anyone so I can sit in my observer position and say why not Rodney?  Crazy nuts winner but hey, there is always next season. 

 

I think both WC and BC looked down on NC because they viewed them as lazy and living off the backs of the hard workers.  Not a good idea and I don't want to see it again.   Two tribes of mixed personalities and careers.  Just better that way. 

[Lamb18]

One think Mike and Sierra can do:

1. Decide who they want to vote out. I'd go with Tyler.

2. Mike pretends to repent and wants to rejoin the Blue tribe so he can find out who they'll vote for or to suggest voting for Shirin. (Best case scenario: Dan uses his extra vote)

3. If it looks like the vote is for Shirin, Mike plays his idol for Shirin. All the votes are for Shirin except the two for Tyler.

4. Tyler is voted out.

Mike and Shirin still have their alliance. We're down to seven and perhaps Dan & Sierra can join w/Mike and Shirin.

If they do a split vote, however, this scenario will not work. The best case scenario is if Mike wins immunity.

If Mike wins the reward challenge, he should invite Sierra, Dan and Tyler and work on them. Rodney hates Mike too much, and Carolyn and Will hate Shirin too much, but the other three aren't so invested in hatred.

[cooker30]

My spec for tonight is that Dan goes back to Mike after finding out that Tyler went through his bag. I figure if Dan found Mike no longer trustworthy (and flipped to Rodney) after Mike was going to back out of buying his letter, Dan will have an equal reaction to Tyler's snooping. Once Dan is back with Mike I think they can convince Sierra to flip back as well. I think Mike (it goes without saying Dan should do NO talking) can use the argument that with Dan's extra vote they can control things 5 to 4. She seems to just be riding the numbers at this point and it really would be her better move.

I think Mike and Shirin would agree to let Dan pick the target since it's his extra vote that's the key. I assume Dan would wsnt Tyler out if he doesn't have immmunity. If he does then it would probably be Carolyn.

If none of that happens I think Mike plays the idol if he doesn't have the necklace. I don't think he plays it on Shirin though. If he can't get Dan and Sierra back he is goung to need the idol for himself as soon as he loeses immunity.

If Shirin is voted out this week I'm forever going to say that her edit made absolutely no sense.

[Wings]

That sounds possible cooker and makes sense.   I think it is strange that they focus on getting Tyler and Carolyn out while Rodney sits there golden.  If I were Mike/Sierra/Dan I would aim for Rodney.  Tyler and Carolyn are not threats from where I sit.  But they won't do that.  

 

I honestly think Rodney is likely to win this.   

[Alapaki]

cooker, I suggested (hoped for) something similar upthread. I think it's extremely plausible, because I think Dan, in his gut, wants to play with Mike instead of Rodney. I think Carolyn pretty much acknowledged the Rodney/Carolyn/Tyler/Will alliance at the last TC.

Also, the ability to play the extra vote to break a tie would appeal to Dan and a "big move" in the game, which he could brag about at FTC. And, I think, as go Dan and Mike, so goes Sierra.

Now, here's something potentially "Shakespearean": Rodney/Carolyn/Tyler/Will vote for Mike or Shirin. Mike/Shirin/Dan/Sierra vote for Carolyn. Jeff says "I'll go get the tally the votes" and Dan jumps up, like a pig in shit, and plays his extra-vote, giving them a 5-4 advantage. But then, after Jeff returns with the urn, Carolyn plays her HII (which I'm not sure anyone other than Tyler know she has), thus eliminating Mike or Shirin on the bounce-back and burning Dan's extra-vote advantage.

I'm not saying I want that to happen. Just that it would be a hell of a thing.

And to make it even crazier, maybe after Carolyn plays her HII, Mike plays his HII (for either himself or whomever he thinks Rodney et al. targeted), thus resulting in NO countable votes being cast.

Edited to add that if things then reverted to a tie and they went to Drawing Rocks, then I may have just speculated the most awesome TC ever.

Edited April 29, 2015 by Alapaki

[LadyChatts]

 

 

And to make it even crazier, maybe after Carolyn plays her HII, Mike plays his HII (for either himself or whomever he thinks Rodney et al. targeted), thus resulting in NO countable votes being cast.  

 

Now THAT would be epic.  Probably the best TC ever.  Or if one lone person got thrown a vote without the intention of having them voted off, and then they are sent packing.  Jenn claimed she saw Carolyn's HII in her bag, though not sure if that's true or not.  It didn't seem like anyone else that was asked post boot knew about it. 

Edited April 29, 2015 by LadyChatts

[cooker30]

Alapaki, the extra vote/2 idol played scenerio is awesome! The best part would be watching Rodney try to work out what exactly happened:) I'd watch an entire hour of just that!

[Wings]

Alapaki, the extra vote/2 idol played scenerio is awesome! The best part would be watching Rodney try to work out what exactly happened:) I'd watch an entire hour of just that!

 

 

Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha!

[cooker30]

I will never, NEVER, understand Shirin's edit! After tonight I would think the winner is Mike based on editing but who the hell knows anymore. I also think Tyler should be eliminated as the winner. He is apparently is playing a really good game and is a huge threat to win but we are not really seeing it. Instead we hear it from Sierra with only 8 people left. Normally that would be the kiss of death.

[Alapaki]

Well, those six numbskulls have no choice but to turn on each other now that they know that Mike is safe next week.  

 

Dan is going to be paranoid crazy next week.  Tyler and Carolyn definitely have he potential to be overly smug and blow up their own game.  

 

Dan and Sierra and can still reunite with Mike next week and, with Dan's extra vote, force a tie against Rodney/Tyler/Carolyn/Will.  That may encourage Rodney to go back with the BCs.

 

We'll see.