The Winds Of Winter: Book 6 Will Arrive...Someday

[benteen]

Not to mention, getting a ghost writer would free him up to do other projects which he clearly wants to do. 

[WearyTraveler]

But he has said he does not want to hire a ghost writer.  He wants to write it himself.  Soooo....

[Chris24601]

On 7/29/2016 at 11:32 AM, WearyTraveler said:

But he has said he does not want to hire a ghost writer.  He wants to write it himself.  Soooo....

Sooo... he's basically admitted that the only ending we're going to get is the show.

At some point I'd think his editors will have to put their foot down and force one on him. There's too much money to be made to leave it on the table because the main writer can't be bothered to finish the story he started. A decent ghostwriter could probably bang out what's left of Winds AND A Dream of Spring in the roughly two years we've got before the show wraps up IF Martin would let him.

[arjumand]

6 hours ago, Chris24601 said:

Sooo... he's basically admitted that the only ending we're going to get is the show.

At some point I'd think his editors will have to put their foot down and force one on him. There's too much money to be made to leave it on the table because the main writer can't be bothered to finish the story he started. A decent ghostwriter could probably bang out what's left of Winds AND A Dream of Spring in the roughly two years we've got before the show wraps up IF Martin would let him.

Yeah, that's what I'm getting from the combination of statements too. The problem with his 'gardening' technique of writing is that now all his main characters are spread out far and wide, there's lots of ancillary characters who've been given pointless (and space consuming) adventures, and his false protagonist and false antagonist are still in play.

And, as a writer, to pare all that down must seem like an insurmountable job now. Farming it out to a ghost-writer seems like a good idea to me, but it's also admitting that you've given up. I don't think he can do that.

Edited August 4, 2016 by arjumand

[Lady S.]

On 8/3/2016 at 7:44 PM, Chris24601 said:

At some point I'd think his editors will have to put their foot down and force one on him. There's too much money to be made to leave it on the table because the main writer can't be bothered to finish the story he started. A decent ghostwriter could probably bang out what's left of Winds AND A Dream of Spring in the roughly two years we've got before the show wraps up IF Martin would let him.

I don't think his editors really have the power to make him do anything. If they can't even get him to cut down on words are winds, they can't force to let someone else take over his story. Not like anyone needs the actual story to make money either. They could crank more special editions of the books like the 20th anniversary aGoT or show tie-in editions, more audiobooks and coloring books and calendars and junk like that, and more bullshit like The Wit and Wisdom of Tyrion Lannister. So long as the show is still popular there will be a big market for ASoIaF-verse in bookstores without actually needing Martin to write another chapter in the main series. His publishers even use the show to promote his other works with castmembers like Michelle Fairley, Ron Donachie (Rodrik Cassell), and Iain Glenn narrating audio editions of his earlier stories.

Edited August 5, 2016 by Lady S.

[Enigma X]

Unfortunately, I think Martin has an incurable case of writer's block when it comes to ASOIF. I really think his own creation has placed a lot of pressure on him to try to please everyone and this is causing him not to be able to move forward. Pleasing everyone, or even half of everyone, who is interested in this saga just ain't gonna happen.

[nodorothyparker]

With the news that his Wild Cards series is also being made for television, he just added another distraction to the pile.  

[Jazzy24]

33 minutes ago, nodorothyparker said:

With the news that his Wild Cards series is also being made for television, he just added another distraction to the pile.  

I don't think GRRM is involved in this tv show in anyway, just his work getting produced. 

[benteen]

I'm actually going to be starting an old book written by GRRM in 1982.  Fevre Dream.

[Calamity Jane]

At age 66, I've given up hope of seeing the book series completed, and now with Season 7 start being pushed back, I'm worrying whether I'll even see the TV series to the end.  Argh.

[benteen]

On ‎8‎/‎9‎/‎2016 at 8:32 AM, benteen said:

I'm actually going to be starting an old book written by GRRM in 1982.  Fevre Dream.

I'll quote myself here.  While I haven't had as much time to read it as I would like, I've really been enjoying Fevre Dream.  GRRM does a great job with the world-building, set on a steamboat and has a really good POV character named Abner Marsh.

And yes, GRRM was obsessed with food porn even in 1982!

[silver.goddess]

I do think GRRM plans to complete his series, he said as much at the Emmy's. I would love to read all the books in his series again, one after the other after it's completed but not sure when. 

[WearyTraveler]

47 minutes ago, silver.goddess said:

I do think GRRM plans to complete his series, he said as much at the Emmy's. I would love to read all the books in his series again, one after the other after it's completed but not sure when. 

I don't doubt his intention, it's his ability to deliver that I question.

[Eyes High]

Possibly relevant?

[Aziraphale]

From GRRM's LJ:

Quote

"This (a book fair in Mexico) is my last scheduled event for 2016. My appearance schedule for 2017 is very limited, and will remain so until WINDS is completed. So if you want to meet me or get a book signed, this will be the last chance for a good few months..."

I feel like we've heard similar things for at least two years now and it doesn't fill me with hope that TWOW will come out next year. I don't know why a tiny part of me still thought that maybe it would happen at the same time season 7 would start, but...

I do believe that he's under a lot of pressure and that it also bruised his ego that the tv has overtaken him (No matter how much of GoT might be D&D's fanfiction, there is simply some stuff like Jon's parentage that has been spoilered now), but it also sucks for the fans. And the publishers. I mean, they literally can't make him meet his deadlines apparently (too big of a name now, could possibly up and go to someone else idk), otherwise they would have found a solution already. And while I think he's possibly in another writer's block due to the pressure and whatnot, he also seems to be too stubborn to get real help with his writing. It's just unfortunate all around.

[Lady S.]

If he's still working in 2017 then I guess that means we probably won't even get Winds in the hiatus after s7. Meaning he'll be too busy to have any real involvement in s8, which could have been the only way for him to have much to do with the saga's ending, seeing as how the final book(s) after Winds feels like the real pipe dream.

[ElizaD]

I've thought of myself as a TWOW pessimist since 2011, but this is the first time I've really considered the possibility that we won't get TWOW before the series finale airs. IIRC, my original prediction was 2015-2016. Even if GRRM misses season 7 in 2017, I hope he has enough pride that he won't want the entire series to have aired between the ADWD and TWOW release date announcements.

The TWOW wait is scheduled to beat the ADWD wait sometime next spring, and GRRM's latest comments make it sound like it's definitely going to happen.

[Eyes High]

8 hours ago, ElizaD said:

I've thought of myself as a TWOW pessimist since 2011, but this is the first time I've really considered the possibility that we won't get TWOW before the series finale airs. IIRC, my original prediction was 2015-2016. Even if GRRM misses season 7 in 2017, I hope he has enough pride that he won't want the entire series to have aired between the ADWD and TWOW release date announcements.

The TWOW wait is scheduled to beat the ADWD wait sometime next spring, and GRRM's latest comments make it sound like it's definitely going to happen.

I'd taken it for granted that we would get TWOW but not ADOS before the series finale. Just as you, now I'm not so sure.

Season 7 started filming in the fall of 2016 to be aired in the summer of 2017. If Season 8 follows the same pattern, we can expect Season 8 to air in the summer of 2018 (True Blood aired during the summers on HBO and premiered in June). Season 7 only has seven episodes, so it seems likely that Season 8 will have no more than seven episodes, either. It therefore looks like we might expect the series finale of Game of Thrones to air by July 31st, 2018. 

So I guess the question is...can GRRM finish TWOW in a little more than a year and a half? Because I'm guessing that's how long he has.

Edited December 1, 2016 by Eyes High

[Wouter]

3 hours ago, Eyes High said:

I'd taken it for granted that we would get TWOW but not ADOS before the series finale. Just as you, now I'm not so sure.

Season 7 started filming in the fall of 2016 to be aired in the summer of 2017. If Season 8 follows the same pattern, we can expect Season 8 to air in the summer of 2018 (True Blood aired during the summers on HBO and premiered in June). Season 7 only has seven episodes, so it seems likely that Season 8 will have no more than seven episodes, either. It therefore looks like we might expect the series finale of Game of Thrones to air by July 31st, 2018. 

So I guess the question is...can GRRM finish TWOW in a little more than a year and a half? Because I'm guessing that's how long he has.

There is less time than that; it takes at least 3 months to publish a book, once the manuscript has been completed.

[Eyes High]

1 hour ago, Wouter said:

There is less time than that; it takes at least 3 months to publish a book, once the manuscript has been completed.

Good point! Starting at July 31st, 2018 and walking three months back produces a deadline of April 30th, 2018: one year and five months, basically.

[ElizaD]

Yikes. "Before season 8" sounds perfectly doable - of course we'll get TWOW before the final season, GRRM can't miss a deadline that ridiculous! But seeing that it's actually "one year and five months" when GRRM is talking about his appearance schedule next year in a way that sounds just like his talk about it last year. . . 

The publisher can't make GRRM write faster and the editor can't make him listen to suggestions, but if it's at all possible they'll certainly try to do what they did with ADWD and convince him to release a book that's kinda unfinished by moving the natural climaxes to the next book so they have something to sell when the TV show premieres, or in this case when it concludes. But that depends on the state of TWOW in early 2018 if there's no release date announcement in 2017 - is the manuscript going to be coherent enough that it can be released as a book minus some big endings, or is it going to be too disorganized? For example, if Dany chapters tell a story, but Tyrion chapters are still being rewritten and even the middle is such a mess that just pushing his planned but unwritten ending to book 7 isn't an option, and almost all Arya chapters have been scrapped because GRRM didn't like the way they turned out when he wrote them.

[Wouter]

It seems like a frighteningly realistic scenario.

[Edith]

Interesting ASOIAF tidbits from the Guadalajara Internacional Book fair written by BryndenBFish 

Littlefinger and Varys are adversaries, both know a lot about the others' plans, so they're at a stalemate.

Ending of ASOIAF will be as much bittersweet as happy

Robert never suspected that his children were bastards born of incest

Brienne and Jaime's relationship is evolving. Began as antagonistic, but they're getting to know each other. So you'll have to continue to read the books to see where that ends up.

GRRM works multiple POVs, plotlines with increasing difficulty. "Does it have to be Seven Kingdoms? Maybe Five Kingdoms?" Hopes that TWOW will not have loose ends by the end of the book, but muses about inserting ambiguous things into the books for readers to think about.

There are no children in Asshai because it's a dark and dangerous, mysterious place, notes that maesters aren't the greatest experts on things at far sides of the world. Melisandre has been there. He'll talk more about this in future books.

Tyrion would be a good leader in this day and age.

GRRM doesn't know what Podrick did to get free services from the King's Landing brothel.

GRRM doesn't see the finish line for ASOIAF yet -- like he did for his earlier books (Dying of the Light, Fevre Dream, Armageddon Rag).

GRRM thinks he should have made Robb a viewpoint character in earlier books.

GRRM never imagined that ASOIAF would become a cult reading. He'd enjoy his story's status in society if he was finished the last two books.

GRRM might follow the Faith of the Seven if he lived in Westeros due to the social advantage, but Melisandre's religion has magical powers. So, he might follow that.

GRRM states jokingly that his wife would leave him if he killed her favorite character (Ed. Note: This is Arya)

GRRM is writing for himself

"The Forsaken is a dark chapter, but there are a lot of dark chapters in TWOW right now. Winter is when things die. Cold and ice and darkness fills the world. This is not going to be the happy feel good book that people may be hoping for. Some of the characters are in very dark places. Things are getting worse for a lot of people."

GRRM won't give away what Lyanna told Ned at the Tower of Joy.

George likes all his characters. Even likes bad guys like "Theon, the Hound, that little shit Joffrey."

Edited December 3, 2016 by Edith

[benteen]

I honestly don't know when The Winds of Winter will be finished but I've given up on expecting the book series to ever get done.  I think it's a combination of writers block, bloating the story with whatever tangent he feels like pursuing and I truly wonder if he doesn't have the drive to write these books anymore.  If that's the case, can you imagine finishing this book and another one if you truly don't want to do it anymore?

[WearyTraveler]

On ‎07‎/‎12‎/‎2016 at 8:20 PM, benteen said:

I honestly don't know when The Winds of Winter will be finished but I've given up on expecting the book series to ever get done.  I think it's a combination of writers block, bloating the story with whatever tangent he feels like pursuing and I truly wonder if he doesn't have the drive to write these books anymore.  If that's the case, can you imagine finishing this book and another one if you truly don't want to do it anymore?

Well, no, that would be horrible.  I don't think anyone wants to chain him to a desk until he finishes, whether he likes it or not.  That said, if he really doesn't feel the drive to finish, he could hire a shadow writer, like many authors do, and give closure to the fans that made him popular in the first place.  From the information that is out there, he doesn't want to do that either.  So, here we are.

[ulkis]

edit.

Edited December 10, 2016 by ulkis

[Aziraphale]

"You really think statements like that would make a difference? Ah, you sweet summer child. I have years of experience with this that tells me otherwise.

But okay, I will try it your way.

Not done yet, but I’ve made progress. But not as much as I hoped a year ago, when I thought to be done by now.

I think it will be out this year. (But hey, I thought the same thing last year)."

GRRM's lj

I actually saw this quote in an article first and had to check that they hadn't grabbed one of his old statements to write a new article, which is very telling. I will believe it when I have the book in my own hands tbh.

[Constantinople]

This may be old news to everyone here but it's news to me

Guardian: New George Martin story The Sons of the Dragon due out this October

Chronicling the reigns of the second and third Targaryen kings, Aenys I and Maegor the Cruel, the story will also explore what happened to their families, friends and enemies during their time in power.

It's only a "short" story, whatever that means, but I think it sheds some light on his priorities

[WearyTraveler]

Sigh!

[nodorothyparker]

Sigh exactly.  

[Eyes High]

39 minutes ago, Constantinople said:

This may be old news to everyone here but it's news to me

Guardian: New George Martin story The Sons of the Dragon due out this October

Chronicling the reigns of the second and third Targaryen kings, Aenys I and Maegor the Cruel, the story will also explore what happened to their families, friends and enemies during their time in power.

It's only a "short" story, whatever that means, but I think it sheds some light on his priorities

If it's any comfort, this story was likely written several years ago...much like all the TWOW chapters that have been released to date, womp womp!

[WearyTraveler]

I have a friend who theorised a while back, when I started reading the books, that George didn't finish because he was milking his creation for all it was worth, trying to get more and more money out of fans before finishing it.  I don't think that's true.  From the article linked by @Constantinople:

Quote

On his website, Martin revealed the story emerged from his previous writing about Westerosi history, which was collated into The World of Ice and Fire, published in 2014. After he got “carried away” writing the history of his creation, Martin abridged the biographies of several characters and family lines for that book, and on his blog revealed that they would be included in a longer history book, still “years away”, called Fire and Blood.

The Sons of the Dragon had come from the same collection of unused material, Martin said, which he gave to Dozois for the collection as he did not have time to write something new. Martin wrote that the story would be “a history rather than a traditional narrative. A lot of telling, only a little showing. (The opposite of what I do in my novels). But if you’re fascinated by the politics of Westeros, as many of my readers seem to be, you should enjoy it.”

I think this is exactly his problem.  He gets excited about a certain aspect and he just can't help himself.  He loves it so much he has to get it all out of his system and put it all down on paper (and this takes him a while, as I understand he prefers to write on an old-fashioned typewriter, rather than a computer or word processor).  Meanwhile, his main story, the one that brought him fame and fortune suffers because, let's be honest, he's bored with it.  He knows how it's going to end, so, he doesn't feel the need to write it anymore.

Compounding the problem is the fact that he doesn't want anyone else to write for him either. So here we are.  The show is not perfect, and they have butchered some aspects of the work very badly ("bad pussy", anyone?), but at least it will give us an ending within a reasonable timeframe.

[ElizaD]

5 minutes ago, WearyTraveler said:

I think this is exactly his problem.  He gets excited about a certain aspect and he just can't help himself.  He loves it so much he has to get it all out of his system and put it all down on paper (and this takes him a while, as I understand he prefers to write on an old-fashioned typewriter, rather than a computer or word processor).  Meanwhile, his main story, the one that brought him fame and fortune suffers because, let's be honest, he's bored with it.  He knows how it's going to end, so, he doesn't feel the need to write it anymore.

Infamously, he also types with only two fingers, one on each hand; I like the theory that that's why we have Ser instead of Sir, because it's easier to type. And I agree completely that GRRM would rather write about the world and its history than deal with wrapping up a story with an ending he already knows and which he has to plot/describe in detail instead of only needing a rough outline like when he writes summaries of Targaryen reigns.

[John Potts]

8 minutes ago, ElizaD said:

I like the theory that that's why we have Ser instead of Sir, because it's easier to type

I would have thought the opposite was true: if you touch type, all the letters of Ser are on the left hand, with Sir, it's Left-right-left, which you'd think would be easier to type with two fingers. But seriously, after a million words (or whatever) he still can't type with more than two fingers!?

[WindyNights]

On 2/5/2017 at 11:16 AM, John Potts said:

I would have thought the opposite was true: if you touch type, all the letters of Ser are on the left hand, with Sir, it's Left-right-left, which you'd think would be easier to type with two fingers. But seriously, after a million words (or whatever) he still can't type with more than two fingers!?

I'm pretty sure he's made a joke about how he uses one finger to type 

[benteen]

Here is how GRRM writes...

http://nofilmschool.com/2014/05/why-game-of-thrones-writer-george-r-r-martin-uses-dos-machine

[WearyTraveler]

4 hours ago, benteen said:

Here is how GRRM writes...

http://nofilmschool.com/2014/05/why-game-of-thrones-writer-george-r-r-martin-uses-dos-machine

Thanks for that!  I'm glad to know he is at least using DOS. 

[John Potts]

Oh I can TOTALLY empathise with that - I may not (entirely) agree with Avenue Q on what the the internet is for, but it's certainly a massive time sink and so going with a low tech solution could be better for him. It's not like he isn't capable of procrastinating WITHOUT a whizzy computer.

(I'm also kind of hoping he takes a year OFF of writing Book 7 once he's published Winds, because he seems to be finding it a real grind).

[Hanahope]

George can publish or write all he wants of other things.  I'm not buying a page until the last two books come out.

[Insomnia]

And now he's starting a film studio.

[FemmyV]

Great for TV, but I can't think of a more huge literary debacle, ever.

[BlackberryJam]

Except he's not. If you check his blog, that story is completely inaccurate.

[LadyDot]

Silly of me, I know, but I think the last two books in the series have already been written and are being held through contractual agreements with the publishers and HBO.  We won't get the end of the series in book form until the HBO show ends its run.

[WearyTraveler]

The publishers would never allow that.  Many, many people will not read the books once they see the ending on the show (even though some things will be different, all of us readers know that Martin revealed the ending to D&D and that at least the major questions will be answered by the show), and that means less money from book sales, which are already declining because of online piracy.

[Eyes High]

19 hours ago, WearyTraveler said:

The publishers would never allow that.  Many, many people will not read the books once they see the ending on the show (even though some things will be different, all of us readers know that Martin revealed the ending to D&D and that at least the major questions will be answered by the show), and that means less money from book sales, which are already declining because of online piracy.

I agree. The best thing for the publishers would be if GRRM got out TWOW and ADOS before the end of the show. All of the momentum will go out of the book series if the show spoils all the important parts of the ending.

Upthread, I estimated that the Season 8 finale would air on or before July 31st, 2018. However, we now know that Season 7 will air starting July 16th, 2017, with seven episodes (so ending August 27th, 2017). If Season 8 has a similar airing schedule--starting July 15th, 2018 with six episodes--the series would end August 19th, 2018. Jog backward three months to allow for the gap between the finished book and publication, and I'd say GRRM has until May 19th, 2018 to finish both TWOW and ADOS to stay ahead of the show's ending.

If GRRM wants to release TWOW ahead of Season 7, he needs to finish it three months before July 16th of this year, or April 16th. (If you give him until the finale, which airs on August 27th, he has until May 27th). I don't know how much Season 7 will really spoil at this point, given the elimination from the show of what we know are important plot elements in TWOW (Aegon, Stannis, etc.), but if he wants TWOW released ahead of Season 7, he's running out of time. He has a much healthier window of opportunity if his goal is to release TWOW before the end of the series, since he has a little over a year to do it.

From a publishing perspective, I wonder when relative to the show's production/airing cycle the publishers would want to drop TWOW. Would they just release it as quickly as possible no matter when in the year GRRM finishes it, or would they wait for the most opportune moment? ADWD was released about a month after Season 1 of GOT aired, but that was before the show became the monster hit it is now. I believe that when GRRM missed the October 2015 deadline, that the publishers were gunning for a Christmas release.

At this point, I think there is no chance whatsoever that GRRM will be able to publish ADOS before the end of the show. That ship has sailed. As much as I would love to believe that GRRM is sitting on the completed versions of TWOW and ADOS, his work schedule and his own writings about his progress simply don't support that conclusion.

[benteen]

He might get Winds of Winter out before the end of the series but he is NEVER going to finish A Dream of Spring before the show ends.  If he hasn't even started it yet and it's safe to say he hasn't, he might never finish it or at least not finish it until the 2020s.

[BlackberryJam]

Can't remember where I saw it, but his publisher has now filled the 2017 publishing date windows with his other works, Wildcards and re-issues, at this point, all the way up through late fall. That seems to mean they have word from him that it's not done and it's not getting done any time soon.

[Eyes High]

On 3/27/2017 at 11:20 AM, BlackberryJam said:

Can't remember where I saw it, but his publisher has now filled the 2017 publishing date windows with his other works, Wildcards and re-issues, at this point, all the way up through late fall. That seems to mean they have word from him that it's not done and it's not getting done any time soon.

Very good points. I think we can rule out a release prior to late fall. 

The publishers were gunning for a Christmas release in 2015, with final delivery of the draft in October 2015, so maybe they're still holding out hope for a Christmas release this year...?

[ElizaD]

Honestly, since GRRM has already failed to release TWOW before the show finishes airing all its adaptation of TWOW content (will the book even get as far as Jon's kinging and Dany's departure?), I'm kinda hoping it's published in late 2018, just for the sad comedy of the entire show having aired in the time between the ADWD and TWOW release date announcements.

In less than two weeks we should get to celebrate the milestone of the TWOW wait beating the ADWD wait. I managed to dig up some old TWOP stuff and found a post from the 2011 ADWD spoiler thread where I was wondering if we would have TWOW in 2015. I'm amused that my pessimistic prediction still turned out to be way too optimistic.

[Hanahope]

Has there been any other series that got so popular, but was never finished?  I know the Wheel of Time series did finally end by someone else finishing the story.  any others?  There are times when I have to doubt that Martin will ever finish the series and the TV show will be all we'll ever get of the story's end.  And we'll just have to be ok with that.