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Ratings and Scheduling: Hail to the Gods

caracas1914

By caracas1914
in Arrow

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LeighAn
LeighAn

If Arrow gets poor premiere ratings I will personally blame Black Siren/Katie Cassidy,  cause even though that is not how ratings work like at all I was promised tens of millions of viewers would tune

Chaser
Chaser

So when you talked about being protective of Oliver this season....you weren't talking about his intelligence right?

tv echo
tv echo

If Arrow ratings had gone up this season, would anyone be giving credit to S3 and S4?  No, of course not.  They'd be crediting the current season of the show.   But because ratings have gone down

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kismet

kismet

22 minutes ago, Sasha said:

Does anyone know about the actor's contracts? If I were EBR I would flee the sinking ship. Five years is a long time to play one character. The writing and the ratings will continue to slide. After year eight you'll be auditioning for Lifetime movies and trying to make money at conventions. 

Hey at least she'll have years of experience elevating subpar and crappy material. :)

I do think contract renewal time will be part of the equation helping the network figure out just how many seasons they want.

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tv echo

tv echo

(edited)
16 hours ago, lemotomato said:

They're blaming season 3-4 for the low ratings now. 

So I guess their reasoning is that people hated Olicity so much they stuck around for two whole seasons of Olicity and then dropped the show during a season of No Olicity? That makes no sense.

First, general audience viewers aren't that patient anymore; if they hate a show, they don't stick around for an entire season, let alone two seasons. You can see noticeable ratings effects immediately after specific episodes (for example, crossover eps, Sara's death, and the events asterisked below). And, second, that is simply not supported by the facts. While we may never know exactly why ratings rise and fall, we can see the results and draw conclusions...

FACT: 1x01 ratings were 1.3 (demo) and 4.14 (viewers) - highest ratings.
FACT: 1x23 ratings were 0.9 and 2.77.
FACT: Season 1 ratings overall averaged 1.05 and 3.21.

FACT: 2x01 ratings were 0.90 and 2.74.
FACT: 2x23 ratings were 0.86 and 2.34.
FACT: Season 2 ratings overall averaged 0.91 and 2.62.

FACT: 3x01 ratings were 1.00 and 2.83.
FACT: 3x23* ratings were 1.00 and 2.83.
FACT: Season 3 overall ratings averaged 1.01 and 2.76 - second highest season.

(* Oliver & Felicity leave Star City together at the end of 3x23.)

FACT: 4x01 ratings were 1.09 and 2.67 - second highest season premiere demo ratings.
FACT: 4x15** ratings were 1.02 and 2.74.
FACT: 4x16 ratings were 0.72 and 2.09.
FACT: 4x18*** ratings were 0.79 and 2.24.
FACT: 4x19*** ratings were 0.88 and 2.27.
FACT: 4x23 ratings were 0.82 and 2.19.
FACT: Season 4 demo ratings for 4x01 through 4x15 averaged 1.02.
FACT: Season 4 demo ratings for 4x01 through 4x15 (excl. 4x08) averaged 0.99.
FACT: Season 4 demo ratings for 4x16 through 4x23 averaged 0.79.
FACT: Season 4 overall ratings averaged 0.94 and 2.49.

(** Oliver's secret son is revealed and Olicity breaks up in 4x15.)
(*** Laurel is killed in 4x18 and her funeral is held in 4x19.)

FACT: 5x01 ratings were 0.70 and 1.87.
FACT: 5x09 ratings were 0.68 and 1.94.
FACT: 5x10 ratings were 0.56 and 1.68.
FACT: 5x11 ratings were 0.62 and 1.91.
FACT: 5x12 ratings were 0.60 and 1.61.
FACT: Season 5 ratings for 5x01 through 5x12 averaged 0.70 and 1.97.

Sources:
http://tvseriesfinale.com/tv-show/arrow-season-one-ratings-25001/
http://tvseriesfinale.com/tv-show/arrow-season-two-ratings-30300/
http://tvseriesfinale.com/tv-show/arrow-season-three-ratings-34284/
http://tvseriesfinale.com/tv-show/arrow-season-four-ratings-38484/
http://tvseriesfinale.com/tv-show/arrow-tv-show-cw-season-five-ratings/

Edited by tv echo
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lemotomato

lemotomato

(edited)
46 minutes ago, tv echo said:

So I guess their reasoning is that people hated Olicity so much they stuck around for two whole seasons of Olicity and then dropped the show during a season of No Olicity? That makes no sense.

First, general audience viewers aren't that patient anymore; if they hate a show, they don't stick around for an entire season, let alone two seasons. You can see noticeable ratings effects immediately after specific episodes (for example, crossover eps, Sara's death, and the events asterisked below). And, second, that is simply not supported by the facts. While we may never know exactly why ratings rise and fall, we can see the results and draw conclusions...

FACT: 1x01 ratings were 1.3 (demo) and 4.14 (viewers) - highest ratings.
FACT: 1x23 ratings were 0.9 and 2.77.
FACT: Season 1 ratings overall averaged 1.05 and 3.21.

FACT: 2x01 ratings were 0.90 and 2.74.
FACT: 2x23 ratings were 0.86 and 2.34.
FACT: Season 2 ratings overall averaged 0.91 and 2.62.

FACT: 3x01 ratings were 1.00 and 2.83.
FACT: 3x23* ratings were 1.00 and 2.83.
FACT: Season 3 overall ratings averaged 1.01 and 2.76 - second highest season.

(* Oliver & Felicity leave Star City together at the end of 3x23.)

FACT: 4x01 ratings were 1.09 and 2.67 - second highest season premiere demo ratings.
FACT: 4x15** ratings were 1.02 and 2.74.
FACT: 4x16 ratings were 0.72 and 2.09.
FACT: 4x18*** ratings were 0.79 and 2.24.
FACT: 4x19*** ratings were 0.88 and 2.27.
FACT: 4x23 ratings were 0.82 and 2.19.
FACT: Season 4 demo ratings for 4x01 through 4x15 averaged 1.02.
FACT: Season 4 demo ratings for 4x16 through 4x23 averaged 0.79.
FACT: Season 4 overall ratings averaged 0.94 and 2.49.

(** Oliver's secret son is revealed and Olicity breaks up in 4x15.)
(*** Laurel is killed in 4x18 and her funeral is held in 4x19.)

FACT: 5x01 ratings were 0.70 and 1.87.
FACT: 5x09 ratings were 0.68 and 1.94.
FACT: 5x10 ratings were 0.56 and 1.68.
FACT: 5x11 ratings were 0.62 and 1.91.
FACT: 5x12 ratings were 0.60 and 1.61.
FACT: Season 5 ratings for 5x01 through 5x12 averaged 0.70 and 1.97.

Sources:
http://tvseriesfinale.com/tv-show/arrow-season-one-ratings-25001/
http://tvseriesfinale.com/tv-show/arrow-season-two-ratings-30300/
http://tvseriesfinale.com/tv-show/arrow-season-three-ratings-34284/
http://tvseriesfinale.com/tv-show/arrow-season-four-ratings-38484/
http://tvseriesfinale.com/tv-show/arrow-tv-show-cw-season-five-ratings/

I can tell you that they're not too big on facts and logic over there. Nor much understanding about how ratings work. (There was a post there last season by someone who found out his neighbor was a Nielsen family, and he wanted to volunteer to mow their lawn for free if they promised not to watch Arrow to hurt the ratings.)

Their reasoning was this: season 3/4 got good ratings because season 1/2 were so great people stuck around through season 3 and most of 4 hoping that the show would improve. Then they quit 2/3 of the way into season 4 and never came back, which was why season 5 ratings stink. They think if the show continues as it has, season 6 ratings will improve.

Edited by lemotomato
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JJ928

JJ928

2 hours ago, AyChihuahua said:

Do you have a citation for that? (I am not challenging you; but it's the first I've heard of anything that definitive, and that would be very interesting information.)

Answered in social media thread.

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tv echo

tv echo

(edited)

Following up on my position that audience reaction to Arrow is reflected quickly in weekly ratings changes and not delayed until after an entire season has aired, I'd refer you to another genre show with a passionate fandom (by way of comparison)...

The Walking Dead has had a very problematic first half of this season. But, instead of sticking it out for the entire season hoping for things to get better, a lot of unhappy viewers immediately began dropping out - as reflected in the steady decline in ratings over the first eight episodes of this season, dropping from 8.36 to 5.09 in the key demo. However, the 8th episode ended on a hopeful note, with Rick Grimes finally deciding to fight back and create a resistance coalition against the Big Bad of that show. After the winter break, The Walking Dead returned with its 9th episode this week and that episode garnered ratings of 5.72 (demo) and 12.00 (viewers). This was a 12% increase in the key demo from the 8th episode.  Per Deadline: "That’s the first time a midseason return of TWD has been up from the winter finale since Season 4 came back from its two-month and one-week break on February 9, 2014. After a season that so far has seen double-digit declines for the still highest rated series on TV following a near record-breaking start last fall, any upward movement is a move in the right direction for TWD and AMC." However, this S7 return's ratings were still lower than last year's S6 return's ratings for that show.

Sources: 
http://tvseriesfinale.com/tv-show/walking-dead-season-seven-ratings/
http://deadline.com/2017/02/the-walking-dead-ratings-season-7-winter-return-grammys-andrew-lincoln-amc-1201911193/

Edited by tv echo
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MaisyDaisy

MaisyDaisy

I think it will get a 0.5, if it gets a 0.6, I think it will be because it gets rounded up (like a 5.6). I think it will get 0.6 for the first half, but when the general audience realise it's WD and moralistic centric, I think they will switch channels.

thats my guess anyway.

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kismet

kismet

I wonder if anyone has ever looked at what happens when the CW airs reruns of Flash & no LoT in the same week as a new episode of Arrow & SG.

I was talking to a patient today because he was trying to find the Flash, instead it was some Tough Mudder special. He was not happy, Flash is his fave. We were talking about how frustrating it is that the CW is so inconsistent with its scheduling.

I don't think it would dramatically increase the Arrow ratings this season, but it might help people on the fence. I can't be bothered to try to keep up with most of the shows in the Flarrowverse because I never know when they are new or reruns. Perhaps there are a group of people like me that have ditched the live and are just going to binge later if their interest gets peaked.

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Velocity23

Velocity23

But CW has all new line up except for the Tuesday shows. Why would you base anything about the Arrowverse on the account of Flash not airing, especially since Flash more than any other Arrowverse show is prone to delays and postponing of episodes. 

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kismet

kismet

2 hours ago, Velocity23 said:

But CW has all new line up except for the Tuesday shows. Why would you base anything about the Arrowverse on the account of Flash not airing, especially since Flash more than any other Arrowverse show is prone to delays and postponing of episodes. 

I'm not basing it on Flash. I'm just saying the CW has a tendency to not keep all the shows consistently new at the same time. Even this winter premiere, it was hard to figure out which show was premiering when. If people turn in and see a rerun, they may assume all the shows that week are reruns and perhaps not tune into the other shows. Just like I assumed Arrow would be a rerun too this week at 8p last night, of course then I came here and saw the new thread. But I'm an exception to the general audience.

Also, if reruns are airing - people may not see the ads for the new episodes and also lower the viewer turn-out. A lot of people do not bother watching reruns. Also since a lot of CW is word of mouth or just happening to catch a good ad airing between other CW shows. I found Arrow because I watched other CW shows it's pilot season. Otherwise, I never would have tuned into Arrow.

I'm just wondering if there is a correlation between the ratings when other days of the week air reruns. Do the numbers drop, do they stay the same? Diehard fans will tune in regardless of the other shows that week. But general audiences may need the new episodes of other shows to get them to watch Arrow.

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way2interested

way2interested

That would also require CW to actually run Arrow promos during their other shows. Even during Supergirl they ran 3 promos for next week's Flash (even though no new episode this week), one promo for LoT (also next week), 2 promos for Riverdale, and none for this week's Arrow.

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Morrigan2575

Morrigan2575

They run Arrow promos during SPN and IIRC, LoT.

I don't see any connection between Flash and Arrow ratings. I used to see connections between Arrow and LoT ratings, when LoT was on Thursday. I think Arrow/LoT have more of a shared audience than Arrow/Flash.  

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way2interested

way2interested

18 minutes ago, Sakura12 said:

I saw a couple of Arrow promos during Supergirl. 

Maybe it's different broadcasting? I guess it's just weird on my station (one time a promo for Arrow started then immediately ran a Flash promo instead of actually finishing the Arrow promo). 

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kismet

kismet

Well if nobody watches reruns, then it doesn't matter what promos are aired. My point was not show specific. It was more network driven, if people can't keep up with when the shows are airing new v. reruns it might impact ratings. If I turn into reruns early on in the week, I wouldn't bother to turn in on Weds.

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dtissagirl

dtissagirl

4 minutes ago, Mellowyellow said:

Is it sweeps yet?

Is sweeps when they try to get high ratings? We have a 40 week ratings period here so I don't understand how sweeps work.

Cuz it'll be awesome if they hit 0.5 or 0.4 for sweeps!

Yes. 512-513-514-515 are the February Sweeps episodes.

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lemotomato

lemotomato

(edited)
35 minutes ago, LeighAn said:

Last season they got 1.3-1.4 and 3-4 million veiwers in live +7 right?

At this point last season, they got way higher in the demos:
Capture1.JPG.f2174b96cd950cf847bff57a97cfb6ad.JPG

They didn't hit 1.3 in +7 until the end of the season, after the big drop in live ratings.

Edited by lemotomato
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strikera0

strikera0

19 minutes ago, Morrigan2575 said:

Given the HH, I expected Arrow to be under 1.6. Guess we've hit their bottom.

I wouldn't be so sure of that. After last night's preachy episode, they may very well see another drop next week. 

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Morrigan2575

Morrigan2575

I show a 33% drop in demo and, 27% in viewers year to year, which is very bad. By comparison (because it's the only other show I track), SPN is down 13% in demo and 0% in viewers.

I'd say 10% or less Y2Y is considered good, 15-20% is average (although 20 is on the high end) 25% or more is considered bad.  33% is firmly in the "oh crap" territory.

By comparison the Arrow drop from S1-S2 was 13%. They had an 11% increase from S2-S3 and the drop from S3-S4 was 7%.   

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way2interested

way2interested

I guess if 516 and on has the similar post-hiatus drop that Arrow has it might retain that drop average for the whole season? If it could retain the .6 for the rest of the season, would the average drop a bit since the gap for 416-423 was a bit closer to .6 than 4a was?

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Morrigan2575

Morrigan2575

If Arrow retains the 0.6 throughout the rest of the year then the Y2Y drop would end up being around 28%. 

Historically the demo average for 16-23 is usually 2 tenths below episodes 1-9. S1 3ths drop, S3 1th drop, S2/S4 both had 2ths drop.

It's possible that Arrow has hit it's bottom but, i think it's also possible that Arrow will start getting some 0.5s after 515 break.

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dtissagirl

dtissagirl

A simpler way to look at the viewer loss is that almost 1 in 3 people stopped watching the show. Any other network and there would be a shake up going on, it's just the CW that is okay with taking live broadcast losses on every show. They don't care for real, because WB and CBS owns the shows and recoup money is post views. 

But if the CW goes with a month long hiatus again after ep 15, they are gonna be tempting fate hard-core.

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lemotomato

lemotomato

(edited)
20 minutes ago, Chaser said:

Haven't they also seen a portional drop in post episode views as well? The Live plus seems down.

Comparing Live+ between seasons is a little bit more difficult because the show has to make it into the top 25 for its numbers to be publicly available, but based on the data collected from http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/category/dvr-ratings/, Arrow is down 25% in Live+ demo, 20% in Live+ viewers compared to this time last season.

Edited by lemotomato
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