Ratings and Scheduling: Who's the fairest of them all?

[jjjmoss]

Rare downward adjustment to a 1.1. 

Penultimate eps: 3.0, 2.2, 2.1, 1.7. So year-to-year drops: -27%, -5%, -19%, -35%. How varied.

My guess is that next season overall will be down by 20%. If you look at S3 vs. S5, it's about the same as if there were 2 20% drops, and S3 had a 20% drop from S2. 

Edited May 10, 2016 by jjjmoss

[Mathius]

I can't help but wonder if the spoiler pics released before the episode had something to do with that drop.

[Souris]

Remember it was also Mother's Day. I saw that viewership was down across the board on Sunday, as tends to be the case on any holiday.

Edited May 10, 2016 by Souris

[LizaD]

That's looking at rounded numbers. The drop is negligible. The actual numbers are 1.158 for last week and 1.146 for this week. I haven't seen the show nor kept up with it since last year so I have no opinion on on-screen material based stuff. Source to Spotted Ratings for you guys to go look at.

Here's an interesting article that gives you VOD rankings since I've seen some overly optimistic claims that Once gets a huge boost taken into account other viewing methods. Once is not in the top 20 but look at the boost #20 gets. I've been saying forever that with Once, what you see is what you get, but I can't source that to any available public info. This is about the only article I can source for you guys. 

http://variety.com/2016/tv/news/ratings-fox-fx-programs-dominate-vod-rankings-1201767410/

[YaddaYadda]

The Family and Nashville both cancelled. I thought I'd put it up. I'm assuming we'll have a better picture by the end of tomorrow.

ETA - Castle, Agent Carter also cancelled.

Edited May 12, 2016 by YaddaYadda
adding stuff

[MostlyC]

And Castle

[Rumsy4]

WOW! 

[Camera One]

It's always sad to hear one's favorite show is suddenly ending.  I hope that won't be us at the end of next year.  This show's quality is questionable, but the fun of dissecting it into little pieces is boundless.  And it's the worst not to have a final season to wrap things up.

Edited May 12, 2016 by Camera One

[YaddaYadda]

23 minutes ago, YaddaYadda said:

The Family and Nashville both cancelled. I thought I'd put it up. I'm assuming we'll have a better picture by the end of tomorrow.

ETA - Castle, Agent Carter also cancelled.

The Muppets are also gone.

[mjgchick]

Castles and Agent Carter all deserve those cancelations. 

[Curio]

Is ABC scripted programming even going to exist after next year? That's like half their lineup right there. Who knows, maybe this is actually good news for OUAT.

[HoodlumSheep]

*taking the non-ouat show cancellation discussion to the small-talk thread.

[YaddaYadda]

4 minutes ago, Curio said:

Is ABC scripted programming even going to exist after next year? That's like half their lineup right there. Who knows, maybe this is actually good news for OUAT.

ABC is calling Quantico a success even though I don't believe it has ever come anywhere near the numbers Once in any of their seasons. Plus that show is moving production from where they were filming in Canada to NYC for season 2 which I thought was a weird move.

I think was Jane Espenson who mentioned 7 seasons for the show. I think that's what the writers and ABC will be aiming for before they call it quits.

Edited May 12, 2016 by YaddaYadda

[Minneapple]

It's a total bloodbath at ABC. 

[Hookian]

All of those are no surprises.

1. Galavant- The storyline wrapped up IMO and it was a good ending.

2. Agent Carter- As soon as there was news that Hayley was picked up for another pilot, that was the end of AC.

3. The Muppets was obvious as was The Family.

4. Nashville was obvious as well. I think the decision was made when they announced that the creator was stepping down and there would be new creators should the show be renewed in S5.

5. Castle I fully believe would have been renewed had the BTS drama not happened. That painted an ugly light on the show.

All of these shows are not surprising and Once is still the top drama on the network after the Shonda Trio. 

They renewed Shonda's new show The Catch which performs horribly for a show in it's first season(last episode had a 0.7).

Once will get 7 seasons IMO.

[sharky]

I'm a little surprised by Castle. For as much as they had backstage drama, they signed one of the regulars to a contract extension this week. Oh well. I'm kind of glad it got the ax because I think that show was going to be pretty bad without the female lead.

And holy cow, that's alot of stuff to get cut. It does make me wonder what the new ABC chief has planned. She's the one who famously saved Charming from getting killed in the pilot so she's plenty familiar with Once and a champion of it even, but if numbers go fractional, will changes or a cancellation be on the horizon? Or will Once be able to survive since there have been so many other dramas that got cut? There's not much returning for ABC that has a built-in fan base the way Once does.

[maryle]

I am surprise about Castle and I have mixe feeling about it because without Castle and Nashville I am guessing that Once will be ne are the reaper. The only reason I waneed Castle to survive was that I see it as a buffet for Once. Agent of shield will probably still have worse rating than Once but for this show cancelling today make the end of Once close than I wish.

I am still happy even if I didnt watch Castle anymore that the premise of the show will stand at the end. No Beck et no castle for the win

[Hookian]

3 hours ago, sharky said:

I'm a little surprised by Castle. For as much as they had backstage drama, they signed one of the regulars to a contract extension this week. Oh well. I'm kind of glad it got the ax because I think that show was going to be pretty bad without the female lead.

And holy cow, that's alot of stuff to get cut. It does make me wonder what the new ABC chief has planned. She's the one who famously saved Charming from getting killed in the pilot so she's plenty familiar with Once and a champion of it even, but if numbers go fractional, will changes or a cancellation be on the horizon? Or will Once be able to survive since there have been so many other dramas that got cut? There's not much returning for ABC that has a built-in fan base the way Once does.

ABC will keep Once for two reasons.

1. Very very stable show in the ratings for the most part, and on top of that easily marketable and easy to make a profit. Still the #1 drama on the network that isn't a Shonda show.

2. They're banking a lot on their pilots which are very likely going to fail. None of them sound that enticing. I have no doubt Once will get a S7.

[RadioGirl27]

I think it's to soon to talk about this, but really, at this point, both options (season 7 and cancellation) seem as likely. Neither would surprise me.

Edited May 13, 2016 by RadioGirl27
I ate some words

[Hookian]

Another thing is Once is still 100% above the ABC average, which is very good news.

[Serena]

1 hour ago, RadioGirl27 said:

I think it's to soon to talk about this, but really, at this point, both options (season 7 and cancellation) seem as likely. Neither would surprise me.

Yes, as long as they tell A&E with plenty of warning. But it also depends on how the new shows next year go: if they get a couple of hits (especially drama hits), or they all bomb.

[RedKeep]

14 hours ago, Curio said:

Is ABC scripted programming even going to exist after next year? That's like half their lineup right there. Who knows, maybe this is actually good news for OUAT.

New drama shows include scifi adaptation "Time After Time", the new Hayley Atwell show "Conviction", yet another Shondaland show with "Still Star-Crossed" and Kiefer Sutherland's "Designated Survivor". They've already released first look vids for these four and three of their new comedies. Returning shows other than OUAT are Agents of SHIELD, American Crime, Grey's Anatomy, Scandal, The Catch and How to Get Away with Murder from Shondaland, Secrets and Lies, Quantico. The Hollywood Reporter has a very handy renewed/cancelled guide for all networks.

It's a bit of a gamble, of course, considering their track record with new drama shows in particular. But it's also about time for some major fresh blood and Castle and Nashville in particular could/should have very well been axed last season, imo. And let's be real here, creatively OUAT is very much reaching the end of its rope as well, but I do hope they'll know what their fate's gonna be early enough so Horowitz and Kitsis can at least try to wrap it all up well decently if season 6 should be their last.

[maryle]

Yea! It is too soon but I hope they know before hand because for me nonobstant of you the lead are at the end I want to be about closure for Emma's savior role and the final battle and a final where Emma is sideline with a big CS wedding the last episode will not make me happy at all. 

Jen said it is about Emma' s fairytell and I want the Charming have biggest in her life for the final. The rest do not care.

[RedKeep]

Well, I would hope the series finale would do more than one character and ship justice. That's exactly why I hope they'll know early enough. I imagine you can wing it if you're only thinking about wrapping one aspect of your show up in a decent manner, but the problem with OUAT is that it's grown way beyond that. Regardless of how it may have started. I adore and appreciate Emma as much as the next person, but Horowitz and Kitsis have a lot more lose ends to tie up than her fate.

[jjjmoss]

It's not "very, very stable." That would be, say, The Middle and The Goldbergs and Grey's Anatomy.

But I'm glad now you can stop saying "Well, Nashville is coming back and Castle is coming back so no need to worry about Once." Or...exact quotes: "Nashville is gonna get another season, NASHVILLE!" "Also ABC has renewed Castle w/o Stana and Nashville. There's no way next season is Once's last." "I don't think you need to put two and two together for it to be clear they will be back." 

Of course now you're spinning in the opposite direction to try to come with the same argument. Can't have it both ways.

[maryle]

Sure, the closure of show is about all characters and big plot having a decent resolution, who will be  like by most. That why I am hoping for.

But, honestly I do not think it is possible to please most of the fans at the end.

Personnally I will adore if Rumple was the big bad and the Rumbelle story end tragically. But, I am sure the Rumbelle fans will riot. There people in this group believing he will be the biggest hero in the end. Same with Regina so some people will be happy, some will cry and others will scream at A. and E. 

I do not have any dog and any of this fight.  Rumbelle love can preval at the end, Regina can even use light magic for all I care.  Except, I do hope for a good story  for the final line... And a certain lost girl we have meet in the pilote and followed since that,  having some closure with her family, and loved one. Sound pretty raisonnable to me and a minimum. I will be praliné ABC god! 

[KingOfHearts]

Quote

Personnally I will adore if Rumple was the big bad and the Rumbelle story end tragically. But, I am sure the Rumbelle fans will riot. There people in this group believing he will be the biggest hero in the end. Same with Regina so some people will be happy, some will cry and others will scream at A. and E. 

I know A&E like to say they're writing their own story and aren't trying to pander all the fans, but they totally do. I don't see how they could think keeping Rumpbelle going in circles is entertaining. These are the same people who wanted Charming dead in the pilot.

[bmoore4026]

1 hour ago, KingOfHearts said:

I know A&E like to say they're writing their own story and aren't trying to pander all the fans, but they totally do. I don't see how they could think keeping Rumpbelle going in circles is entertaining. These are the same people who wanted Charming dead in the pilot.

If they want the ratings up, A&E are going to have to slice out the deadwood, which includes Rumpbelle.  Its my least favorite part of the series.  Sometimes, shaking things up are great things for sagging shows.  Or they could go the Gunsmoke route and make the episodes be about whoever is guest starring.  Unless they want to end up another corpse at the bottom of ABC's Odessa Steps Massacre.

[Souris]

13 hours ago, RedKeep said:

New drama shows include scifi adaptation "Time After Time", the new Hayley Atwell show "Conviction", yet another Shondaland show with "Still Star-Crossed" and Kiefer Sutherland's "Designated Survivor". They've already released first look vids for these four and three of their new comedies. Returning shows other than OUAT are Agents of SHIELD, American Crime, Grey's Anatomy, Scandal, The Catch and How to Get Away with Murder from Shondaland, Secrets and Lies, Quantico. The Hollywood Reporter has a very handy renewed/cancelled guide for all networks.

It's a bit of a gamble, of course, considering their track record with new drama shows in particular. But it's also about time for some major fresh blood and Castle and Nashville in particular could/should have very well been axed last season, imo. And let's be real here, creatively OUAT is very much reaching the end of its rope as well, but I do hope they'll know what their fate's gonna be early enough so Horowitz and Kitsis can at least try to wrap it all up well decently if season 6 should be their last.

FWIW, "Designated Survivor" is rumored to have tested incredibly well with test audiences. I am vastly amused that after all those years of saving the president on "24," Kiefer will now be playing the president.

ABC desperately needed some fresh blood. We'll see if anything new works for them next season. That will affect Once's fate. I also hope that they get a heads-up about S7 in time to wrap things up satisfactorily should S6 be the last. I think it could go either way.

[jjjmoss]

I doubt anything will actually make the ratings go up. The Frozen season was a big fluke from a billion dollar movie.

Even, say, relative-to-everything-else rock-steady Grey's Anatomy has technically declined 9 seasons in a row. 

[Hookian]

29 minutes ago, Souris said:

FWIW, "Designated Survivor" is rumored to have tested incredibly well with test audiences. I am vastly amused that after all those years of saving the president on "24," Kiefer will now be playing the president.

ABC desperately needed some fresh blood. We'll see if anything new works for them next season. That will affect Once's fate. I also hope that they get a heads-up about S7 in time to wrap things up satisfactorily should S6 be the last. I think it could go either way.

A lot of there new shows don't particularly look too thrilling whatsoever so we'll see. I still say OUAT has S7 in the back, especially when it's 100% above the average of ABC. :) TVgrimereaper on Twitter can explain it better. I don't see the show ending next season. Jane, Adam, and Eddy have said that S7 would be the last.

[Mathius]

S6 still has the potential to be the last, but only if the ratings really crash and burn to Muppets-levels.

Which could happen, but then again could not, we'll just have to see.

[InsertWordHere]

24 minutes ago, Hookian said:

 Jane, Adam, and Eddy have said that S7 would be the last.

I think they mean Season 7 will be the last if the show makes it to season 7.

[jjjmoss]

What exactly is this "100% above the average of ABC" thing you're talking about? Based on TVBTN, it's currently about 4% above ABC's average. 

And I actually do think S7 will happen, but your premises to come to this conclusion seem...faulty.

Edited May 14, 2016 by jjjmoss

[Rumsy4]

I'm not concerned about S7 at this point. All I want is for A&E to get enough advance notice so they will have time to wrap up at least some of the major character arcs.

[jjjmoss]

It's funny that people worried about the 7-8 hour when it turned out it was the 2nd half that did worse: 1.3 (4.3 million)/1.1 (3.8 million). 

Last season the 2nd hour kept over 99% of the demo, at least in prelims.

Edited May 16, 2016 by jjjmoss

[Kktjones]

I'm pleasantly surprised that the drop-off for the second hour wasn't much larger. That first hour was pretty brutal...

[Serena]

Yeah, it was stupid. And since the second hour was the "usual" time, it seems like viewers found the show at the new time just fine, they just decided it was too bad/stupid to continue.

[Hookian]

On 5/14/2016 at 11:55 AM, jjjmoss said:

What exactly is this "100% above the average of ABC" thing you're talking about? Based on TVBTN, it's currently about 4% above ABC's average. 

And I actually do think S7 will happen, but your premises to come to this conclusion seem...faulty.

TVGrimreaper on Twitter could probably explain it better.

[jjjmoss]

30 minutes ago, Hookian said:

TVGrimreaper on Twitter could probably explain it better.

Going on Tvgrimreaper, which I never have before, it says Once was at 89% of ABC's average. That's...even less.

[Souris]

Half-hour breakdown:

Here are the un-rounded prelims for Sunday, May 15:
Once Upon a Time .................. 1.199 ... (1.378 ... 1.197 ... 1.097 ... 1.124)

HUGE drop from 7 to 7:30.

[TheGreenKnight]

The drop makes sense considering some people probably tuned in for AFHV and tuned out again. 1.1/3.8 is in line with the rest of this half-season, isn't it?

[Artsda]

No change to schedule. OUAT will stay at 8pm on Sunday.

http://www.ew.com/article/2016/05/17/abc-fall-schedule?xid=entertainment-weekly_socialflow_twitter

[Writing Wrongs]

Dungey said in the Upfronts that she wants to do away with the long winter hiatuses.

http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2016/05/17/abc-2016-17-huge-in-season-hiatuses-may-no-longer-be-a-thing/

So we may not get split seasons.

[Curio]

That could be either a very good thing, or a very bad thing.

[Camera One]

Then we'll be back to week on, week off?  Or we'd have to wait a long time for the season premiere?  May is still sweeps month, so there's really only so much they can do.  

[YaddaYadda]

One of the problems with ABC is that they have a bunch of award shows that start at the end of January, and stretch into February. So I don't know how they will juggle that. 

[TheGreenKnight]

Sounds like a horrible idea, imo. The constant breaks every other week kill a show faster than one long break between.

[sharky]

I don't know if it's going to be an awards show issue. Shows like Castle were three weeks on, week off or two weeks off, and that disrupted things a bit. But I do wonder if this will be good for Once. They try and break things into these half-seasons and then cram plot plot plot into 10-11 episodes a time. Maybe this will mean the Jekyll/Hyde storyline will be the whole season and have a little more time to breathe. Maybe three big chunks instead of two halfs or something? It's not the worst idea if it's executed properly. But of course, IF it's executed properly and TW;TS.

[Camera One]

47 minutes ago, sharky said:

They try and break things into these half-seasons and then cram plot plot plot into 10-11 episodes a time. Maybe this will mean the Jekyll/Hyde storyline will be the whole season and have a little more time to breathe. Maybe three big chunks instead of two halfs or something? It's not the worst idea if it's executed properly. But of course, IF it's executed properly and TW;TS.

Even within a half-season, they cram all the plot into one or two of the episodes when everything gets resolved, and something new gets started.  TW;TS = nothing will change regardless of the scheduling or the length of the arcs.