Ratings and Scheduling: Who's the fairest of them all?

[Souris]

Are we talking 18-49 ratings? I think 2.2 for the premiere, will dwindle to a 1.5 for the midseason finale.

[Serena]

Hopefully this isn't considered too OT, but I just saw the ratings for TGIT on ABC and they're down (2.8/3.2/2.6). ABC has been promoting that block ALL summer (they got I don't even know how many magazine covers and photoshoots, an Emmy win, interviews, etc) while ignoring OUAT, and it didn't even pay off that much! If they had given 1% of those shows' marketing budged to OUAT, maybe we wouldn't have gotten such crappy posters. I guess the publicists assigned to OUAT and those that work on TGIT are different, because if they are the same they must be purposedly sabotaging the show.

[Souris]

I'm sure Grey's lost some because of killing off McDreamy.

 

I noticed that a different publicist is in charge of Once this season than in previous seasons. In fact, there are two PR contacts listed now instead of the previous one. The previous PR person seems to have gotten a promotion to a more executive level.

Edited September 25, 2015 by Souris

[jjjmoss]

I'm sure Grey's lost some because of killing off McDreamy.

That seems to be a bizarre thing to pick at when Murder was down 32%, Scandal was down 16%, and Grey's was down a network-show-average 10% from their previous season premieres, and thus Grey's was clearly the winner of the night in its eternal longevity.

Edited September 25, 2015 by jjjmoss

[Souris]

That seems to be a bizarre thing to pick at when Murder was down 32%, Scandal was down 16%, and Grey's was down a network-show-average 10% from their previous season premieres, and thus Grey's was clearly the winner of the night in its eternal longevity.

 

Ah, OK, I didn't know the percentages of what went down how much. Only thing I saw was Serena's post.

[HoodlumSheep]

Hmmm...if everything's down on abc, then my 2.4 guess for the ouat premiere is probably too high.

[sharky]

Well, everything is down across the board because of cord cutters. Ratings are going to be interesting this year since they'll be including live +7 and streaming as well I believe. So then I'm wondering how much networks are going to be paying attention to the ratings and how much they're going to pay attention to actual viewers from across the board. There are alot more factors in why shows will succeed or be cancelled this season.

[jjjmoss]

S2 finale 2.3, S3 premiere 2.6.

S4 finale 1.8. I'm going with...2.1. Plus it would be equivalent to 2 normal drops of 10% from 2 years ago (2.6*.9*.9). 

 

It's rare that DVR actually highly affects a show in terms of being a hit vs. not. Usually hits get high DVRs and flops get low DVRs.

I still think the show is almost certain to get renewed though.

Edited September 25, 2015 by jjjmoss

[YaddaYadda]

Do they also check the Hulu streaming? The reason I'm asking is because the only show I ever watch live is Once. Everything else, if it's a little bit interesting, I'll catch on Hulu.

[Curio]

I know the demo number is the most important thing, but I'm curious how many live viewers tune in. The Season 4 Frozen-ified premiere from last year got over 9 million viewers, but 4B averaged around 5-6 million viewers. I'm thinking the Season 5 premiere might tick above 7 million viewers, but then drop back to 5 million for the rest of the season.

[LizaD]

 

Ratings are going to be interesting this year since they'll be including live +7 and streaming as well I believe. So then I'm wondering how much networks are going to be paying attention to the ratings and how much they're going to pay attention to actual viewers from across the board. There are alot more factors in why shows will succeed or be cancelled this season.

 

Not so much. From what I know, only 1 ad buyer agency agreed to the C7 deal with networks and they did so because they negotiated a lower CPM in exchange. Hard to know at this point where that scale is going to tip. As for streaming, in the past they've been sold separately. Easiest way to tell is if the live commercials are the same as the ones for online streaming. That said I know at the upfronts this year, ABC and the other networks were going hard on bundling packages across a variety of platforms.

[Serena]

I remember a while ago they were saying the most watched shows on Netflix were The Blacklist and Once. So I'm sure ABC takes that into account (I guess they're selling to Netflix for a lot of money, since they also produce). I don't know about Hulu.

[Serena]

According to Adage.com, ABC is selling OUAT ads for 155,596$, up 14% over 2014 (136,538$). It's the sixth most lucrative (as far as commercials go) show for ABC after How To Get Away With Murder, Modern Family, Scandal, GA and Black-ish. 

[YaddaYadda]

Once is pretty much guaranteed a 6th season just for this, I think.

[LizaD]

I don't think it's in any danger of getting cancelled but Once has Frozen to thank for S5's ratings. If they get a dramatic decrease in ratings and underdelivers, it's going to be interesting if they have to deliver make-goods.

[Serena]

The early ratings seem to be 1.8 demo and 5.88 million viewers.

Edited September 28, 2015 by Serena

[maryle]

Humm! overnight rating demo 1,8.

I was hoping for at least be 2,0. Still can be up, I guess.

[jjjmoss]

Well. That's not so good.

 

Maybe the season will average more like a 1.6 than a 1.7.

[Mathius]

This is the first premiere where the audience ratings are not dramatically higher than the previous finale's. 5.80 compared to the previous finale's 5.50 is very unimpressive, particularly when you look back at the S2, S3 and S4 premieres in comparison to the preceding finales. Overall, there is no new audience interest in this show anymore, it's only the 5 million-some die-hard fans left watching live. ABC best hope the show keeps those fans on board.

Edited September 28, 2015 by Mathius

[sharky]

Yea, I think this is a sign that the show has reached its full growth potential and it's now just sticking with a firmly entrenched fan base.

 

Although this does make me wonder what's going to happen with the second half of the season. If these number stay steady, is ABC going to be happy with that or are they going to insist on a second-half storyline that includes a famous actor as a guest star or pulls from a more known or recent fairy tale. Maybe do more with Ariel or Mulan or something like that.

[HoodlumSheep]

Ouch. Not good. That's too bad, because overall the episode was pretty solid (it was better than pretty much all of season 4). Well, let's keep our fingers crossed that it bumps up to at least a 1.9.

The mess that is known as 4b managed to drive away the rest of the non-diehard fans.

[Souris]

Half-hour breakdown from Marc Berman:

 

8:00 p.m.

ABC – Once Upon a Time (season premiere)
Viewers: 5.88 million (#3), A18-49: 1.8/ 6 (#3)

 

CBS – 60 Minutes (season premiere)
Viewers: 15.71 million (#2), A18-49: 2.9/ 9 (#2)

 

NBC – Football Night in America (part 3)
Viewers: 15.97 million (#1), A18-49: 5.7/18 (#1)

 

Fox – The Simpsons (season premiere)
Viewers: 3.26 million (#4), A18-49: 1.5/ 5 (#4)

———-

8:30 p.m.

ABC – Once Upon a Time (season premiere)
Viewers: 5.88 million (#3), A18-49: 1.7/ 5 (#3)

 

CBS – 60 Minutes (season premiere)
Viewers: 13.98 million (#2), A18-49: 2.4/ 7 (#2)

 

NBC – Football Night in America (part 3)
Viewers: 21.20 million (#1), A18-49: 7.5/22 (#1)

 

Fox – Brooklyn Nine-Nine (season premiere)
Viewers: 3.14 million (#4), A18-49: 1.5/ 4 (#4)

 

Not good for a season premiere, which traditionally gets the season's highest rating. And it lost 18-49 viewers within the hour.

Edited September 28, 2015 by Souris

[stealinghome]

Doesn't surprise me. The show has alienated all but the diehards, and its word of mouth is terrible.

If the show can hang in around a 1.5-1.8, I think it gets a S6, but if it starts getting down to a 1.4 and below, I do think it's in danger given the show's sucktastic quality. ABC can do WAY better at 8pm Sunday than (say) a 1.3. Quantico got a 1.9 at 10pm, ffs.

[sharky]

This quote from TvbytheNumbers is pretty telling: "On ABC, the Once Upon a Time premiere was down 49 percent, with a 1.8 adults 18-49 rating. New series Blood & Oil earned 1.4, down 36 percent from Resurrection's premiere in the same time slot last year. The Quantico series premiere earned a 1.9, up 46 percent from last season's Revenge premiere."

 

Of course, playing ratings excuse bingo, it was up against football AND 60 Minutes, and Revenge by the end was pulling a 0.8 when it was cancelled so ABC may be more lenient with a Sunday show than say a show on Thursday. Plus, the fact that Blood and Oil lost so many viewers and Quantico gained a bunch back may mean some schedule tweaks. Like I said, ratings excuse bingo.

Edited September 28, 2015 by sharky

[HoodlumSheep]

^ and Once has a pretty strong online presence, so renewal campaigning could save it for another season.

I think they'll get a season 6. If the numbers don't improve, a season 7 might be a bit more questionable.

I keep seeing a "steady 3.7" floating around. Is that the overall rating based on all the age groups?

[orza]

The most important viewer segment for this show is not even reflected in the rating numbers everyone loves to quote, namely children. There are more viewers under 18 than online fan girls. Since Paul Lee and Disney classify this as a kids show I doubt they are worried. The show has about 10 million viewers when one looks at the live +7 numbers and is one of the top shows on Netflix. And that is just the domestic market. It is also doing very well internationally. The online fans who make so much noise represent only a tiny percentage of viewers.

 

abc and Disney care about viewers in households with significant discretionary income who will watch the show, buy the merchandise and hopefully visit the theme parks and book a Disney cruise or resort vacation. As long as the show helps drive consumers to the theme parks and resorts it will stay on the air.

[Mari]

^^^Good points.  

 

Doesn't ABC own the rights?  That would impact renewal, too, because of syndication and streaming services profits.

[Curio]

If anyone wanted tangible proof of how terrible 4B was, I think those ratings tell a pretty accurate story.

[HoodlumSheep]

^ I like to imagine that people finally saw how Once has turned into the "Regina show" and hightailed it out of there.

[Minneapple]

Well, those ratings kind of suck. I mean 60 Minutes did better in the demo. That's...pretty pathetic.

 

I guess on the bright side ABC was down across the board. 

[retrograde]

^ I like to imagine that people finally saw how Once has turned into the "Regina show" and hightailed it out of there.

I'm pretty sure Regina remains one of the most popular characters outside of these boards (though I personally like her).

 

My impression is that this show still has a very strong fandom and remains popular on Hulu and Netflix and DVR, but it just isn't something a lot of people watch live anymore. It isn't watercooler viewing for those in the demographic. It's something they binge, or watch as a guilty pleasure when they have time. It's a shame the ratings system doesn't really account for those people, but it is what it is. 

 

After catching Blood and Oil, I don't think that is going to bring many viewers into the Once fold. Woof. It was awful, and reviewers and other forums seem to agree.

 

At least Once is still outperforming many other ABC shows, though, which ultimately is what matters. 

[Mari]

I'm pretty sure Regina remains one of the most popular characters outside of these boards (though I personally like her).

 

My impression is that this show still has a very strong fandom and remains popular on Hulu and Netflix and DVR, but it just isn't something a lot of people watch live anymore.

Unfortunately, despite your affection for Regina, I have to agree with you.  :)

 

As much as I like to think people are tired of Regina, and that's the issue, I don't actually think it is.  If it's Regina related at all, its more likely that while people like Regina, the writers affection for her actually sort of backfires--they get so interested in getting Regina the shinies they want her to have, and don't really want her to struggle, that the stories they tend to tell around her are less enthralling.

 

Hence binge-watching, where you don't have to wait for anything and can fast forward through parts that don't seem to be of importance/interest.

[KingOfHearts]

 

Hence binge-watching, where you don't have to wait for anything and can fast forward through parts that don't seem to be of importance/interest.

Once draws a lot of its fandom marketing from the ships and characters. Everyone has their favorite romantic couple and the characters they want to root for. Love Captain Swan? Binge-watch and fast forward, or just find clips on YouTube. The show gets a lot of attention online from discussing it, but that's not necessarily what TV networks are going for.

 

As far as Regina goes, she's still the headliner. 

Edited September 29, 2015 by KingOfHearts

[LizaD]

It's a shame the ratings system doesn't really account for those people, but it is what it is.

Well I think this is because there's a fundamental misunderstanding of what Nielsen ratings actually measure. They're not measuring how many people are watching a certain show. At all. Zero interest in that. They are a measure of how many people are watching commercials at a given time. It's not really show ratings but commercial ratings.

All those alternatives ways people watch something, like Netflix, is good for the networks. They're getting additional revenue separate from the ad model and it's done through licensing deals. But I'm certain Unilever and it's ad buyers don't give one single crap how so and so is popular on Netflix. Unless Netflix binge watchers then move to watching the show live. That's certainly not true for Once as there is no growth in viewers, outside of the Frozen bubble.

Edited September 29, 2015 by LizaD

[Shanna Marie]

The actual ratings may matter less for network-owned shows, since they're also getting revenue from other streams like Netflix and DVD sales. The airing of the show works almost as a commercial for other things. But there can be a downward spiral if ratings look bad because Netflix may be less enthusiastic and the network may worry that lower ratings will result in lower DVD sales. How did the DVD sales do this time around?

 

Most of the people I know in real life who watched this show already quit because they hated Regina. The last few who were still hanging on were leery about this season because they didn't want to watch Emma be a villain. As one of my best friends said, that's a bit too dark for the show she uses to help distract her from dreading Monday morning.

[Mathius]

If anyone wanted tangible proof of how terrible 4B was, I think those ratings tell a pretty accurate story.

2B was a remarkably similar case. No other part of the show lost more viewers than these two.

Edited September 29, 2015 by Mathius

[HoodlumSheep]

As much as I like to think people are tired of Regina, and that's the issue, I don't actually think it is.

I can dream, can't I? I know it's probably not Regina that's causing the issue.

Can you find dvd sales statistics floating around somewhere? i wonder how they compare to the show ratings.

[stealinghome]

Most of the people I know in real life who watched this show already quit because they hated Regina.

Yeah, I don't have an opinion one way or the other, but it's possible the "Regina's popularity" thing can be a chicken and egg situation--is Regina really popular because the fact that this has become The Regina Show has driven away a lot of people that don't like her, leaving her fans as a disproportionate number of those still watching? And is Regina popular because she has functionally become the main character of the show? Figuring out one character's popularity or lack thereof is virtually impossible imo.

[retrograde]

When I was a casual viewer, I liked Regina because she was snarky. Honestly, it wasn't much more complex than that.

[KingOfHearts]

Personally I think Dark One Emma was not a good idea for a new season draw. It's depressing, dark and lobotomizes one of the main characters. From a story perspective it has a lot of potential, however it's for the wrong show.

[orza]

Regina has been a tremendously popular character from the get go and has always been the main character. The tag line of the show, before the pilot even aired was "Evil is not born, it's made" and then not 5 minutes into the pilot we met a character called the Evil Queen. The kids I watch the show with had it figured out right away what and who this show was about. Adam and Eddy said in interviews at the beginning of season 1 that the premise of the show was, in a nutshell, "What if the Evil Queen got her happy ending". The have repeated this in various ways in several other interviews that this is Regina's story, it is the story of Regina's (and Rumple's) redemption, etc. Furthermore, Paul Lee was explicit, on more than one occasion, that this is a family show for parents to watch with their children. They were always upfront about what kind of show this is. No viewers were misled. If some fans misunderstood and thought the show was about something else, then that is on them.

[Artsda]

Compared to  heavily promoted shows like the series finale of CSI and heavily pushed like Quantico and Blood&Oil, I thought OUAT did great. 

[Mathius]

Regina has been a tremendously popular character from the get go and has always been the main character. The tag line of the show, before the pilot even aired was "Evil is not born, it's made"

Wait, it was? Can you show me proof? I thought that line came in the show first, not out of it.

The kids I watch the show with had it figured out right away what and who this show was about.

Weird kids. Most kids - and most adults - figured that it was about Emma Swan being brought to a town of fairy tale characters cursed by the Evil Queen in order to DEFEAT said Queen and break said curse. They saw nothing to indicate that we were supposed to be following the villain's journey. If we were, then what was even the point of Emma?

Adam and Eddy said in interviews at the beginning of season 1 that the premise of the show was, in a nutshell, "What if the Evil Queen got her happy ending".

Right, and that happy ending was the curse. She, as the antagonist, got it at everyone else's expense and it was up to Emma, the protagonist, to undo it. The premise behind the show has the Evil Queen as the antagonistic moving force, not the "main character".

The have repeated this in various ways in several other interviews that this is Regina's story, it is the story of Regina's (and Rumple's) redemption, etc.

Sources please?

Furthermore, Paul Lee was explicit, on more than one occasion, that this is a family show for parents to watch with their children. They were always upfront about what kind of show this is. No viewers were misled. If some fans misunderstood and thought the show was about something else, then that is on them.

So it should have been common logic that a show about a sociopathic, tyrannical, mass-murdering rapist finding a happy ending at the expense of everyone else is perfect family entertainment and good for kids to take lessons from? Oooo-kaaaay.... Edited September 29, 2015 by Mathius

[orza]

All the interviews and promotional materials are on the internet waiting to be googled.

 

Emma was a plot device to move the story along for all of season one and still is.

 

"Most kids and adults" would be a number in the millions. I have not seen any data to support that and mining and analyzing this kind of data is what I do for a living.

 

This has gotten off topic so I will stop now.

[Stuffy]

Deleted

Because it's not worth it.

Edited September 29, 2015 by Stuffy

[Katherine]

I think the show began as Emma's story, but as Regina's popularity took off, they sort of shifted directions and, IMO, lost their way. As much as I would like to think the decline in ratings is due to the focus on Regina, that's probably not the case. I think it's pretty normal for ratings to drastically decline in a show's later seasons. Only the very best shows are able to maintain--and in rare cases, increase--their ratings as time goes on.

[KAOS Agent]

I don't understand the argument here. Ratings are down for the show. What does that mean? It means that no matter how much anyone loves the show and thinks their favorite is the greatest thing since sliced bread, millions of people who watched the premiere last season were not similarly enthralled to continue tuning in through the whole season or return again for Season 5.  Roughly five million fewer people watched the S4 finale than did the premiere. Indisputable fact. The show did not gain any of the lost viewers back for this season. I don't think you can take anything away from those numbers other than that for whatever reason millions of people found something they would rather do than watch this show..

[stealinghome]

I think it's pretty normal for ratings to drastically decline in a show's later seasons. Only the very best shows are able to maintain--and in rare cases, increase--their ratings as time goes on.

Yeah, it's totally normal for older shows to have ratings drop-offs in later seasons--and over the last few seasons certainly network TV ratings have been down on the whole. But what's abnormal is a show hemorrhaging viewers the way OUAT did in S4 (or S2, especially 2B, for that matter).

 

It's fair game to wonder what the hell happened when a show drops 2 entire demo ratings points over the course of a season, because clearly something's going drastically wrong (assuming there wasn't a radical shift in time slot or cast over that time). Obviously OUAT got a big bump in 4A from Frozen, but it's concerning that it wasn't able to hold on to any of those viewers.

[Katherine]

I don't understand the argument here. Ratings are down for the show. What does that mean? It means that no matter how much anyone loves the show and thinks their favorite is the greatest thing since sliced bread, millions of people who watched the premiere last season were not similarly enthralled to continue tuning in through the whole season or return again for Season 5.  Roughly five million fewer people watched the S4 finale than did the premiere. Indisputable fact. The show did not gain any of the lost viewers back for this season. I don't think you can take anything away from those numbers other than that for whatever reason millions of people found something they would rather do than watch this show..

Fair point. I guess I'm just saying that I don't think it's solely from the focus on Regina, though that certainly might be part of it.  Speaking from my own experience, I'm getting kind of tired of meeting new characters who I know are just going to disappear by the end of the half-season.  And while I liked the split-season format in season three, it's not really working for me anymore.  Anyway, I think there could be a number of factors contributing to viewers' decisions to stop watching.

Edited September 29, 2015 by Katherine

[sharky]

To be fair though, there was a huge jump in the S4 premiere because of Frozen. The network also promoted it much more. We had magazine covers and a flashy premiere in Hollywood. None of that this around. 4A was an outlier and shouldn't be used to judge ratings for this show. So then look at numbers for S3 or 4B and you'll see that Sunday's ratings aren't that low. They're definitely lower than season 3 but not by much. So if these ratings hold steady or somewhat close to steady, it shouldn't be that bad.

 

ETA: The chart I was looking for! If you look at the numbers the show got on Sunday, they seem to be in line with how things ended at the end of season 4 and also give you an idea of how a "normal" OUAT season looks like as evidenced from the pretty steady line of season 3. Plus, you have to remember that the season 3 premiere was two years ago and there has been a drop overall in network ratings since then due to cord cutters. So between all that and the non-network stuff -- Netflix, Twitter, DVD sales, etc. etc. etc. -- I can see ABC giving them a season 6 and maybe even a season 7. But as you can tell by the ratings, alot of it also depends on what they do with the story line. I get pissed sometimes about season 2 because it made TPTB think that they had to do this half season theme nonsense since telling a story about their core characters didn't work in season 2. It wasn't focusing on the core that caused the ratings to drop. It was the story itself that A&E were telling, which sucked.

Edited September 29, 2015 by sharky