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S38: Preview & Speculation Thread


Whimsy
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This is where you discuss the previews at the end of the episode and the speculations resulting from them.  There is no preview talk in the episode threads and there are no future spoilers (past the what the previews show) in this thread.  

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Also worth noting that David said something about blindsiding Kelley, which will probably get back to her, and could cause her to turn on him.  I find the odds of David or Kelley going more likely than Joe or Aubry at this point, because Kelley/David might be directly targeting each other.  On the yellow tribe (sorry, still don't know the names yet), Eric seems to be the only one we've seen wanting Joe and Aubry gone.  Now, I know didn't see enough of the tribe dynamics to know where everyone else really stands, but he might be in the minority with that one.  Gavin may have just been agreeing with him just because, and next week we see him talking to Victoria and Julia (I think it was her), but who knows what they are going to think.  Joe/Aubry did look kind of like two outcasts in the quick clip we saw of them.

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I'll gladly take any of the returnees going, but Kelley would probably be my first choice. I'm already over her eye rolls. You're not that great, sweetie. But Joe can also go. And Aubry. I still like David, but I'm over returnees in general, so bye.

I don't see any of them going this next ep though. The previews are usually misleading.

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All the returnees need to go. Just vote them out.

But I really don't like returnees and newbie season mixes. I think they are decidedly unfair. That said, the newbies need to realize that and vote out the returnees. Toss in a way to save the precious returnees that we are all suppose to love and I get super annoyed.

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Just want to say that I can't see anyone on this show getting voted out and coming to that signpost, and simply leave. I will be surprised if a single castaway takes the option to NOT get back into the game. They have no idea what is awaiting them, so why not try to get back in? If they knew what was coming, then I would be unsure which option they would take.

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16 hours ago, TVFan1 said:

Just want to say that I can't see anyone on this show getting voted out and coming to that signpost, and simply leave. I will be surprised if a single castaway takes the option to NOT get back into the game. They have no idea what is awaiting them, so why not try to get back in? If they knew what was coming, then I would be unsure which option they would take.

Yea, I think if they wanted it to be a real choice then they needed to give them some clue as to what was gonna happen if you choose to stay. Otherwise, there is almost no chance anyone's gonna be like 'nah, peace out.' 

Edited by peachmangosteen
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Yikes, I wonder what happened to Wendy's foot in the preview?  That looks bad.

Sure isn't looking good for Joe and Aubry over at Kama.  I'm guessing they're being let in on the plot to get rid of them.

My guess is Wendy gets pulled (she thinks she might have broken something, but that didn't look good whatever the injury is), and then there's a tribe swap the following week.  For argument's sake, if Wendy injured her foot in the IC and Manu still won, but she got pulled for medical reasons, would Kama still end up voting someone off?  Or just get tree mail saying someone from Manu was medevaced and they aren't going to TC after all?  That might be one way to save Joe.

Edited by LadyChatts
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Yeah, it's not looking good for Wendy. Whatever the injury is, she might be medevaced next week.

Would not mind if Joe or Aubry were voted off next week, either. Kama seems to be more anti returnees than Manu. Interested to see what happens. 

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On 2/27/2019 at 9:03 PM, LadyChatts said:

Yikes, I wonder what happened to Wendy's foot in the preview?  That looks bad.

Sure isn't looking good for Joe and Aubry over at Kama.  I'm guessing they're being let in on the plot to get rid of them.

My guess is Wendy gets pulled (she thinks she might have broken something, but that didn't look good whatever the injury is), and then there's a tribe swap the following week.  For argument's sake, if Wendy injured her foot in the IC and Manu still won, but she got pulled for medical reasons, would Kama still end up voting someone off?  Or just get tree mail saying someone from Manu was medevaced and they aren't going to TC after all?  That might be one way to save Joe.

While it probably would come into play with this sort of injury, I wonder if a player gets medevaced for something that can be remedied by a few hours in the ER or a night in the hospital if they would have the option of going to EOE.   

If Wendy goes out, it will be interesting to see how the lines get drawn with the remaining 6 Manu Ginobili tribe members.   It would seem like there are 3 pairs who are in closer alliances with each other than anyone else (David/Rick, The Warthog/Chris, Wentworth/Lauren).   David and Rick seem like the most solid of the 3 pairs.

Do the pairs all stick together and if so which 2 pairs target the 3rd?  I could see the 4 guys joining up to target Wentworth.   Her best defense might be to try to convince Chris and The Warthog that David is a bigger threat and/or that David and Rick are weaker than Wentworth and Lauren, or that they are too tight with each other.  

If Wentworth is on the chopping block, would Lauren use her idol to save her?  I tend to doubt it.   

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4 hours ago, Bryce Lynch said:

While it probably would come into play with this sort of injury, I wonder if a player gets medevaced for something that can be remedied by a few hours in the ER or a night in the hospital if they would have the option of going to EOE.   

If Wendy goes out, it will be interesting to see how the lines get drawn with the remaining 6 Manu Ginobili tribe members.   It would seem like there are 3 pairs who are in closer alliances with each other than anyone else (David/Rick, The Warthog/Chris, Wentworth/Lauren).   David and Rick seem like the most solid of the 3 pairs.

Do the pairs all stick together and if so which 2 pairs target the 3rd?  I could see the 4 guys joining up to target Wentworth.   Her best defense might be to try to convince Chris and The Warthog that David is a bigger threat and/or that David and Rick are weaker than Wentworth and Lauren, or that they are too tight with each other.  

If Wentworth is on the chopping block, would Lauren use her idol to save her?  I tend to doubt it.   

I think that if she is pulled for medical reasons, that would be it for her game and she wouldn't be allowed to go to the island.  If Wendy left and there wasn't a tribe swap (and Manu continued down the Ulong/Matsing path), I'd be curious who would go.  My guess is it'd be David or Rick that would be in danger if they were still on a 'keeping the tribe strong', but I can also see them going after Wentworth.  Maybe they'd think she was bad luck.  

Here's a new preview for this week (mostly focuses on Wendy and the EOE twist).

As to the preview after the episode: Aurora was the one talking with Aubry and Joe, and likely letting them in on the tribe's plan to get rid of them.  If Aurora isn't with the group and Aubry/Joe vote together, I wonder who else they can get on their side.  If Eric wants to split the votes in case of an idol that could backfire.  In the above promo, there's a quick shot of Aubry running, which makes me wonder if that could be idol related.  Also, a split vote means Joe/Aubry wouldn't need a lot of people on their side to survive a split.  It seems like Eric/Gavin want those two gone the most; I think Aurora will vote with Joe/Aubry if they can get people on their side.  Not sure where the rest of the tribe would ultimately stand.

Edited by LadyChatts
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Tribe swap next week, and chickens are freed.  I don't know if Wendy was begging to get voted off by doing that, since everyone will know it's her, but it may not matter now.

So three tribes, plus EOE, is going to be a lot.  

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The swap is probably the best thing to happen for the Manu tribe members giving that Aubry-Joe_Aurora know that the other Kama's are gunning for them and therefore I think will be open to voting some of their former tribemates out.

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Yeah, Manu needs a tribe swap at this point. I'm guessing Kama will outnumber them within all 3 tribes, but hopefully Kama will be open to getting some of their own players out, because they are up in numbers.

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There's 15 people left, so there'd be 3 tribes of 5.  While the last couple of seasons the swap didn't help the tribe that was already down in numbers, it's possible Manu could wind up on the majority on at least one tribe.  The better question is would they stick together.  Wentworth/Wardog/Lauren may stick together, but I think Wentworth and Wardog would sell each other out in a heartbeat.  I also think Wendy, David, and Rick would go with whoever.  

Kama's dynamics are interesting, especially since we haven't seen a lot of their tribe.  It'd be humorous if Wentworth, Joe, and Aubry all wound up on the same tribe against Victoria and Eric, and whether the formers would stick together.  

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10 minutes ago, LadyChatts said:

There's 15 people left, so there'd be 3 tribes of 5.  While the last couple of seasons the swap didn't help the tribe that was already down in numbers, it's possible Manu could wind up on the majority on at least one tribe.  The better question is would they stick together.  Wentworth/Wardog/Lauren may stick together, but I think Wentworth and Wardog would sell each other out in a heartbeat.  I also think Wendy, David, and Rick would go with whoever.  

Kama's dynamics are interesting, especially since we haven't seen a lot of their tribe.  It'd be humorous if Wentworth, Joe, and Aubry all wound up on the same tribe against Victoria and Eric, and whether the formers would stick together.  

If all 4 returnees ended up on the same tribe with one newbie, that would be interesting. I wonder what would happen in that case. Do they stick together or get out a returning player?

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38 minutes ago, LadyChatts said:

There's 15 people left, so there'd be 3 tribes of 5.  While the last couple of seasons the swap didn't help the tribe that was already down in numbers, it's possible Manu could wind up on the majority on at least one tribe.

It'll be really annoying if we get another reinforcement of the status quo, like it ends up 3-2 Kama in every tribe.

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While I can't see any possible way that they're going to be able to cover 3 tribes AND the EDGE OF EXTINCTION in one episode, I am praying to the Survivor gods that this swap will put some life in this dead fish of a season.

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4 hours ago, KimberStormer said:

While I can't see any possible way that they're going to be able to cover 3 tribes AND the EDGE OF EXTINCTION in one episode, I am praying to the Survivor gods that this swap will put some life in this dead fish of a season.

I hate tribe swaps and this one seems even more pointless than usual, because of the EOE twist.

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7 hours ago, KimberStormer said:

While I can't see any possible way that they're going to be able to cover 3 tribes AND the EDGE OF EXTINCTION in one episode ...

Yea, that's gonna be rough. We already don't know like virtually anything about one whole tribe and they only had 2 tribes and EoE. 

It seems early to swap, especially with EoE, but I don't mind because, even though I don't find this season that boring, it does need a jolt. Although I suspect it'll end up being 3 Kama-2 Manu on every tribe and the original Manus will just continue to be voted out.

Edited by peachmangosteen
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I keep wondering if Lauren will end up in the same camp that she's in now.  If she has to go to a different camp, he won't have time to retrieve her idol from the place where she buried it.

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24 minutes ago, DallasGypsy said:

I keep wondering if Lauren will end up in the same camp that she's in now.  If she has to go to a different camp, he won't have time to retrieve her idol from the place where she buried it.

Production moves the HII in case of a merge. It is covered in the HII rules that are posted in the Survivor Facts thread.

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https://ew.com/tv/2019/03/07/survivor-edge-of-extinction-jeff-probst-episode-3-chickengate/

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I see there is more to Chickengate coming up next week as well as a switch from two to three tribes. Hook us up with a tease, my man!
Oh, next week is another great episode. Edge of Extinction is slowly becoming a society with its own set of issues.  And back in the regular game, the deviousness is already full on. I love the way this group is playing. Very aggressive out of the gate. And they still have no idea that the Edge of Extinction really exists and that it may impact their game.

Here's Jeff's teaser for next week.  I have to say, I feel like there's not much to his teasers so far this season.  And per usual, I totally disagree with his assessment about the game play going on, although maybe he's got nothing else to talk about it so that's all he can fall back on.

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I  was thinking that if the chickens don't get too far before the tribe realizes Wendy released them, we could have another classic Survivor chicken chase.  Maybe someone will even get, literally, clotheslined.  

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3 hours ago, iMonrey said:

Do you mean in front of the other contestants at Tribal? I expect he doesn't want to say Edge of Extinction because the whole castaway island thingy is a secret nobody finds out about until they're voted off. If he kept saying Edge of Extinction they'd probably wonder what the hell he was talking about and somebody would figure it out.

This got me thinking, I wonder if the players are doing a lot of speculating about what EoE is and if any of them have figured it out? I'm gonna assume they are 100% talking about it and I bet many of them have (or will) figured it out. But surely once Jeff tells them about it they'll pretend to be shocked lol.

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Next week is a two hour episode (I thought my guide said it was two episodes, but now it says it's one).  Looked like some excitement at EOE, but I can't believe they are bringing someone back already.  At first I thought it was medics running on a tribe's beach.   

Also, I am hoping and praying to the Survivor Gods that the shot of Wardog telling Wentworth he wants Lauren gone is a post IC strategy session and it backfires on him spectacularly.  And we saw Victoria telling Aubry she might want to vote Eric out, but Victoria seems kind of wishy washy.  I'd die if Wendy managed to escape elimination yet again.  But I feel like Victoria is kind of wishy washy so who knows.  Interesting that we didn't get anything for Kama in the preview. 

Edited by LadyChatts
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I don't know if the whole Wardog telling Kelley to get out Lauren is post IC or not, but I'm hoping it's not because I want Lauren to stay. I'm also tired of seeing the same people at tribal every week.

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I don't think Lauren would get voted off.  Her and Wentworth are close, and David looked pretty mad tonight when Rick got voted off.  I truly believe he thought Wardog was with them.  So it might be easy to convince him to vote Wardog, especailly since he'd be the alternative choice.  In addition, they have 4 members, so either tie it and risk a rock draw, or go along and vote someone off whose proven he isn't very trustworthy.

We did see Victoria and Aubry strategizing on the beach, so it's possible Manu attends TC.  I'm assuming there will be 2 vote offs since it's a 2 hour ep.  And though we didn't see anything of Kama, tonight makes me think the scene with Ron/Joe will go somewhere (either Joe getting voted off or Ron getting blindsided).  Since Julia isn't getting confessionals or much screen time, she's taken to her twitter to explain what's going down on her end.  She said when she searched Joe's bag, there were items that made her think he might be making a fake idol.  Why Ron and Julie are so convinced he doesn't have it I don't know; we saw Lauren bury her's, and since going through personal possessions is nothing new, Joe could have it hidden somewhere.  But maybe that's foreshadowing to a Kama TC and Joe trying to play a fake idol.  Hopefully he does better than last time if that's the case.

Edited by LadyChatts
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50 minutes ago, TVFan1 said:

I don't know if the whole Wardog telling Kelley to get out Lauren is post IC or not, but I'm hoping it's not because I want Lauren to stay. I'm also tired of seeing the same people at tribal every week.

They showed Kelley saying hes nuts and shes closer to Lauren so I think she tells Lauren and Lauren gets her idol ready OR They go to David to vote out Wardog 

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Oh, I would love to see Dan voted out after talking to Kelly and Kelly blindsiding him. Given that Dan swapped the vote twice to protect Kelly. That would be a thing of beauty. Oh pretty please.

And then we get Reem and Dan at EoE.

Please let me have this pretty. Pretty please.

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The fact that they're doing a two hour ep this early and that it doesn't appear to be because something major happens with EoE like I originally thought, I'm gonna guess it's just two boring and/or predictable vote-outs that they wanted to get over with quickly so they could move on to the merge.

I would love to see Wardog get blindsided, but I'm not sure it'd be a good move on Kelley's part. Wardog is up her butt saving her week after week while David has tried to get her booted every week. Although, Wardog wanting to get rid of Lauren is bad news for her, but she should probably just try to turn him around on that and not boot him. 

Edited by peachmangosteen
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30 minutes ago, peachmangosteen said:

I would love to see Wardog get blindsided, but I'm not sure it'd be a good move on Kelley's part. Wardog is up her butt saving her week after week while David has tried to get her booted every week. Although, Wardog wanting to get rid of Lauren is bad news for her, but she should probably just try to turn him around on that and not boot him. 

I don't think Kelley KNOWS that David has tried to get her booted. He's never voted for her and hasn't even pushed her ouster with the Warthog. He waited for the Warthog to suggest Kelley and agreed with him, but backed off when the Warthog "changed" his mind.

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18 minutes ago, plurie said:

I don't think Kelley KNOWS that David has tried to get her booted. He's never voted for her and hasn't even pushed her ouster with the Warthog. He waited for the Warthog to suggest Kelley and agreed with him, but backed off when the Warthog "changed" his mind.

Agree - from what we’ve been shown, David was entirely successful at maneuvering Chris into position as an effective meat shield, to catch all the flak for Operation Waste Wentworth.  Which isn’t to say Chris didn’t also contribute to his own game demise pretty damn efficiently.

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6 hours ago, peachmangosteen said:

The fact that they're doing a two hour ep this early and that it doesn't appear to be because something major happens with EoE like I originally thought, I'm gonna guess it's just two boring and/or predictable vote-outs that they wanted to get over with quickly so they could move on to the merge.

I'd say this is the most likely possibility. It's all about scheduling, not about content. Survivor isn't the water-cooler show it used to be.

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7 hours ago, peachmangosteen said:

The fact that they're doing a two hour ep this early and that it doesn't appear to be because something major happens with EoE like I originally thought, I'm gonna guess it's just two boring and/or predictable vote-outs that they wanted to get over with quickly so they could move on to the merge.

I would love to see Wardog get blindsided, but I'm not sure it'd be a good move on Kelley's part. Wardog is up her butt saving her week after week while David has tried to get her booted every week. Although, Wardog wanting to get rid of Lauren is bad news for her, but she should probably just try to turn him around on that and not boot him. 

I'm wondering what the scrambling looks like on EOE.  I originally thought maybe it was an early merge this season, since two people have a shot at coming back from EOE, but that doesn't seem to be it.  A two hour episode focusing on the return of EOE castoff would make more sense, but your probably right that it's going to be a predictable boot(s), or they're just trying to move the season along to get to the twist.  

Since the previews are probably lying to me because this season hates me, my guess is Wardog going after Lauren is going to be misdirect and it's a predictable David boot (though I won't 100% rule out a Wardog blindside).  At NuMana, Wendy might go but might also survive if they want to get out Aubry, or Victoria is serious about targeting Eric and it gets back to him.  NuOldKama I feel is a little harder to predict since we haven't seen much of the dynamics going on there, but I guess Joe could be done for.  Maybe Aurora.  Winning challenges aside, I think that tribe is just boring and not much is going on there besides a majority targeting a minority and the majority won't budge.  

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On Reddit, someone posted an analysis of the 4 votes thus far, and thinks they saw a pattern: A person trusted by the bootee to not vote against them, but did, was the next person to get the boot themselves.  Reem thought Keith was on her side, but he voted for her.  Keith thought Chris was his ally, but Chris voted for him.  Chris thought he was in on the same plan as Rick, but that was not the case.

Now,iIn the Rick vote, he knew the two women were not on his side, and that David did not vote for him.   Which means that if the pattern holds, the next person to leave Lesu will be... Dan.

On 3/13/2019 at 8:54 PM, LadyChatts said:

Looked like some excitement at EOE, but I can't believe they are bringing someone back already.  At first I thought it was medics running on a tribe's beach.   

I thought it was the medics too.  There's really no one else that could be.

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This was from the latest ep thread, but I think it fits better here:

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The more I think about it, the more I think it might be The Warthog [that Kelley/Lauren should boot next].  He has already shown the others that he can be impulsive and disloyal by blindsiding Chris.  If I were Wentworth and Lauren, I would trust David more, even though they have been working more closely with The Warthog. 

I don't now, David's been trying to get Kelley out since day 1 lol. The Wardog has saved her time and again. Neither of them are trustworthy, but David has already turned on them. Wardog maybe would, but he's been voting with them and protecting them the whole game. Plus, David is more likely to make in-roads with the others at merge than Wardog is.

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On 3/15/2019 at 12:55 AM, peachmangosteen said:

The fact that they're doing a two hour ep this early and that it doesn't appear to be because something major happens with EoE like I originally thought, I'm gonna guess it's just two boring and/or predictable vote-outs that they wanted to get over with quickly so they could move on to the merge.

The eternal optimist in me wonders if that might also mean the post-merge is chaotic and awesome so they're getting the double-episode out of the way now so they don't have to do one then?

Hopefully? 

Maybe?

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Preview for this week.  Lauren is crying (and takes a little fall during one of the challenges), Victoria says people shouldn't trust her, there's a box on EOE that is about the exiles fate in the game, and "double the blindsides."

Possible boot theories: Victoria could get blindsided for targeting Eric/idoled out by Aubry who didn't fall for her trying to sway her on an Eric vote (or someone else could go because of Aubry's idol).  I wouldn't call Wendy a blindside so she's likely safe.  Over at Lesu, I wouldn't say David is a blindside, either, so maybe Wardog does go?  Or Wentworth decides Lauren is just going to be weak fodder to keep around so they get rid of her (especially if they lose again).  Kama's more of a toss up; based on this past week, I'd say Ron or Joe. 

This, of course, assuming these are actual blindsides and not them making it seem like David or Wendy are in on the vote but then get bounced.  I'd even say Joe getting blindsided is a bit of a stretch, since all they've done over at Kama is talk about getting rid of him and Aubry.  Even after his talk with Ron, I'd be shocked if he thought Ron was with him 100%.

Edited by LadyChatts
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The only thing I am quite confident of based on that promo is that Lauren is not going anywhere. lol   They are just laying it on too think with her crying, etc, for me to believe she is any danger. Not buying it at all.  I am concerned for Victoria though.  I hope I am wrong as she probably my favorite among the newbies.  Hopefully that is just a little misdirection and it is an easy Wendy boot (assuming they go to tribal)

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1 hour ago, LanceM said:

The only thing I am quite confident of based on that promo is that Lauren is not going anywhere. lol   They are just laying it on too think with her crying, etc, for me to believe she is any danger. Not buying it at all.  I am concerned for Victoria though.  I hope I am wrong as she probably my favorite among the newbies.  Hopefully that is just a little misdirection and it is an easy Wendy boot (assuming they go to tribal)

Your probably right about Lauren.  My guess is her crying and having a rough time may lead to the scene we saw of Wardog approaching Kelley in voting her off.  After reading what @SVNBob wrote about the reddit posts, I thought about a conversation Chris/Wardog had in episode 2 when discussing who to vote off.  Chris wanted Wentworth gone because he believed she’d only use them until she didn’t need them anymore (Wardog vetoed the idea).  Then cut to episode 3 when Wardog said he trusted Wentworth more than Chris.  Perhaps foreshadowing to a Wardog boot?  Especially because I think Kelley is a lot closer to Lauren than Wardog.

I’m hoping Victoria manages to pull off an Eric blindside, even though he’ll no doubt go to EOE.  Out of all the Kama members, I feel she’s gotten more airtime than the others (besides Aubry).  But that ‘people shouldn’t trust me’ is typically said by someone overconfident in their position and doesn’t realize their perfect plan is falling apart.

Edited by LadyChatts
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Hmmm... I am just so excited to have a double episode, at this point! I am hoping something happens that means we don't have yet another old Manu/newLesu tribal council, because boy am I sick of seeing them there. It also means Extinction is (mostly) full of people I like and not everyone can come back, so that will be sad. That said, having Warty blindsided would be thrilling!

More footage of Extincto Island would be good, for me, anyway. I want to see a mutiny! Or a full on gridsearch of the Isle. I want to see Chris and Devens go Robinson Crusoe... get inventive, dig in hard. All that.

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