2018 Awards Season

[sweetcookieface]

NUGuy514 - Thanks for elaborating on your reaction to CMBYN. I'm tempted to read the book.

Reading through the THR predictions, I"m reminded of how much I enjoyed War for the Planet of the Apes. It's considered a "Long Shot" for Best Picture (frontrunner for visual effects), but if there were any justice, I think it would be a contender. 

[SeanC]

The American Cinema Editors (weirdly they aren't a "Society" or "Guild") have their nominees, featuring questionable comedy categorization aplenty:

Quote

BEST EDITED FEATURE FILM (DRAMATIC):

Blade Runner 2049 - Joe Walker, ACE

Dunkirk - Lee Smith, ACE

Molly’s Game - Alan Baumgarten, ACE, Josh Schaeffer & Elliot Graham, ACE

The Post - Michael Kahn, ACE & Sarah Broshar
The Shape of Water - Sidney Wolinsky, ACE

BEST EDITED FEATURE FILM (COMEDY):

Baby Driver - Jonathan Amos, ACE & Paul Machliss, ACE
Get Out - Gregory Plotkin

I, Tonya - Tatiana S. Riegel, ACE
Lady Bird - Nick Houy
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri - Jon Gregory, ACE

BEST EDITED ANIMATED FEATURE FILM:

Coco - Steve Bloom

Despicable Me 3 - Clair Dodgson

The Lego Batman Movie - David Burrows, ACE, Matt Villa & John Venzon, ACE

[Dejana]

Some tweets from Vulture journalist/veteran awards watcher Mark Harris about this year's race:

 

 

 

 

 

[AshleyN]

WGA Nominations:

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

• The Big Sick, Written by Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani; Amazon Studios
• Get Out, Written by Jordan Peele; Universal Pictures
• I, Tonya, Written by Steven Rogers; Neon
• Lady Bird, Written by Greta Gerwig; A24
• The Shape of Water, Screenplay by Guillermo del Toro & Vanessa Taylor; Story by Guillermo del Toro; Fox Searchlight

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

• Call Me by Your Name, Screenplay by James Ivory; Based on the Novel by André Aciman; Sony Pictures Classics
• The Disaster Artist, Screenplay by Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber; Based on the Book The Disaster Artist: My Life Inside the Room, the Greatest Bad Movie Ever Made by Greg Sestero and Tom Bissell; A24
• Logan, Screenplay by Scott Frank & James Mangold and Michael Green; Story by James Mangold; Based on Characters from the X-Men Comic Books and Theatrical Motion Pictures; Twentieth Century Fox Film
• Molly’s Game, Screenplay by Aaron Sorkin; Based on the Book by Molly Bloom; STX Entertainment
• Mudbound, Screenplay by Virgil Williams and Dee Rees; Based on the Novel by Hillary Jordan; Netflix

 

It should be noted that Three Billboards was ineligible here, or else it almost certainly would have been nominated. I, Tonya over The Post is interesting though. If even a well-reviewed Spielberg/Streep/Hanks collaboration manages to disappoint awards-wise, do you think studios and distributors might finally get the message that these ultra-late releases don't work anymore?

Meanwhile Logan grabs that wide-open fifth spot in Adapted. I wonder if it can hold on to it at the Oscars? I'm skeptical, since the guilds tend to be more friendly to comic-book movies than the Academy -- off the top of my head, I believe the WGA also nominated Deadpool and the first Guardians of the Galaxy, but neither translated to an Oscar nom.

Edited January 4, 2018 by AshleyN

[hendersonrocks]

Tiffany Haddish tore.it.up in her New York Film Critics Circle acceptance speech (best supporting actress).

Quote

On critics and paying it forward: “…if you say something, thank you. I don’t care if it’s positive or negative I appreciate you. I’m glad you see me, because it’s been so many years when nobody saw me. When you’re a little kid going through the system you wonder, ‘does anybody even know I’m alive?’ To be able to be this example to so many people like me,  that you guys have no clue about, but they’re coming because I keep the f—ing door open.”

[thuganomics85]

Hate to say it, but it really doesn't surprise me that some of the Oscar voters feels the way they do about Call Be By Your Name.  They (and Hollywood) like to think they are progressive, but I'm sure there are plenty of them that are like "We just gave it to Moonlight, do we really need to give it to another gay-themed movie?" Even though I'm sure those movies are different in a ton of ways.

Glad Logan got that WGA nod, even though I doubt anything will come out of it.

[Bastet]

6 hours ago, hendersonrocks said:

Tiffany Haddish tore.it.up in her New York Film Critics Circle acceptance speech (best supporting actress).

I am so glad I watched the video embedded in that article, of the entire speech, because that was entertaining as hell.  I wasn't familiar with her prior to this, but I dig her.

[Irlandesa]

6 hours ago, thuganomics85 said:

Hate to say it, but it really doesn't surprise me that some of the Oscar voters feels the way they do about Call Be By Your Name.  They (and Hollywood) like to think they are progressive, but I'm sure there are plenty of them that are like "We just gave it to Moonlight, do we really need to give it to another gay-themed movie?" Even though I'm sure those movies are different in a ton of ways.

Yeah.  Every year there is the "stupid thoughts revealed" about Oscar voters.  They act like recognizing Moonlight was some kind of act of progressiveness that lets them off the hook for this season as well.

[JBC344]

What is just as surprising is the commentary on Get Out.  Clearly people like it and think it deserves something but just can't get over the fact that it is a movie that doesn't fit into their "ideal" of what an Oscar Contender should be.  The two ironies here of course is that (one) if the movie has provoked that much thought to begin with, was an entertaining movie that explored interesting themes without being preachy or condescending that it is in fact the type of movie that should be rewarded, and (two) you are actually part of the group that does decide what the "ideal" is, as a governing group you can actually change the way people view the Academy and the Oscars moving forward. 

[Irlandesa]

1 hour ago, JBC344 said:

What is just as surprising is the commentary on Get Out.  Clearly people like it and think it deserves something but just can't get over the fact that it is a movie that doesn't fit into their "ideal" of what an Oscar Contender should be. 

And the funny thing is that they likely see recognizing Moonlight last season isn't just covering the "gay" card but the black card as well because that movie focused on both. 

And I forgot to mention above but yes, Moonlight and CMBYN are about as similar, IMO, as Juno is to Knocked Up.  I mean--they're both about unplanned pregnancies? 

12 hours ago, AshleyN said:

If even a well-reviewed Spielberg/Streep/Hanks collaboration manages to disappoint awards-wise, do you think studios and distributors might finally get the message that these ultra-late releases don't work anymore?

While it's well reviewed, it has a lower Metacritic score than many other contenders.  Lady Bird, Dunkirk, Call Me By Your Name, The Florida Project, Phantom Thread, Three Billboards, The Shape of Water, The Big Sick, Mudbound and Get Out are ahead of The Post, in that order. 

I still think it makes it but if it misses, I think it'll have less to do with the fact that it's a late release and more to do with the fact that, while good, it isn't good enough to earn a "best movie of the year" title when compared to everything else that is out there.  It's interesting but I actually think Get Out is bucking the handicap of coming out earlier in the year in that, had it come out later with the scores it has, it likely wouldn't be in the Best Picture discussion the way it is now. 

Movies like The Disaster Artist and I, Tonya are lower and have also somewhat been bandied about as potential nominees and they will have benefited from early releases. 

[Dejana]

Given how many year end Top 10 lists Get Out has made/topped, I honestly think it would have a higher Metacritic score if it had been released during the fall with most other awards contenders. Don't get me wrong, I think being released so early and having the ability to show a lingering cultural impact has been the best thing for its awards hopes--even the "Is it a comedy?" debate with the Golden Globes kept a conversation going and led to critics/voters revisiting it at a helpful time for its chances. Among the more cantankerous Oscar voters, it seems like there will always be some resistance to movies that stray outside the lines of traditional awards bait. 

Dunkirk, OTOH, should be a Top 3 contender at minimum and probably the frontrunner, given its Metacritic score. The year end lists and critics circle awards are kind a way for them to reevaluate movies from earlier in the year and I think it is suffering for that, as well as not fitting in with the zeitgeist of 2017. Maybe it will have a better showing with the guilds and the Academy, though I can already picture the Brutally Honest Oscar Voters hating it, too, albeit for different reasons than not being woke enough.

Edited January 5, 2018 by Dejana

[AshleyN]

So speaking of Call Me By Your Name, the fact that it made it here, which tends to lean more populist, bodes well for the Oscars. I would say the opposite is true for Darkest Hour.

Of these, I'm guessing that Wonder Woman and Molly's Game fall out at the Oscars, while the only other film I can see breaking into the line-up is The Florida Project. So, The Florida Project, I, Tonya, and The Big Sick battling it out for the last spot or two (depending on how many movies make the cut this year)?

[Ms Blue Jay]

On 12/28/2017 at 8:43 AM, sweetcookieface said:

For those of you who've seen a number of the likely Oscar contenders, I'm curious which ones you liked best, which ones left you underwhelmed, etc?

I've been on a bit of movie-watching binge, so have seen most of the lead contenders: Dunkirk, Call Me By Your Name, Shape of Water, Three Billboards, Lady Bird, Get Out, Mudbound, Big Sick, I Tonya... maybe more. The Post is probably the biggest contender I have yet to see, but there's also Darkest Hour, Phantom Thread, The Disaster Artist, and The Florida Project. (I don't really have any interest in seeing Darkest Hour, but am hoping to see the others in the next couple of months.)

My favorite film - the one that I felt most emotionally invested in and that stayed with me for weeks - is Call Me By Your Name. Just a visually beautiful, emotionally rich film. A notch below that for me are probably Get Out, Shape of Water, and Dunkirk. I enjoyed Lady Bird, but felt slightly underwhelmed by it (maybe the 100% rating on Rotten Tomatoes led to unrealistically high expectations). And I was also disappointed by Mudbound, but I saw it on a dark TV screen when I was half asleep, so I feel like I should revisit it.

How do others feel? It really does seem like there's no real consensus this year.

CMBYN was almost perfect.  I was blown away, even after all of the hype.  Get Out was great.  I was *VERY* underwhelmed with Lady Bird compared to its hype, but Laurie Metcalf was great.

My personal favourite performances this year were the actors who played Walter and Georgina in Get Out, Timothee Chalamet in CMBYN, and Alison Janney in I, Tonya.  (I wasn't as blown away by Margot Robbie.  I don't know.  Not sure how I feel about the movie as a whole.)

I haven't seen everything though.  The Disaster Artist is a very easy watch and very funny.  Hard for me to judge James' performance because I haven't seen The Room, but I found the movie really entertaining.

I HATED Blade Runner 2049.  HATED.  One of the most dull things I have ever seen

@sweetcookieface Saw Battle of the Sexes today.  It was just ok.  Wasn't blown away by Emma unfortunately. I could talk about this stuff all day so thanks for asking us!

Edited January 7, 2018 by Ms Blue Jay

[AshleyN]

And finally, the last of the big critics awards (the National Society of Film Critics):

Quote

Best Film: “Lady Bird”
(Runners-up: “Get Out”; “Phantom Thread”)

Best Director: Greta Gerwig, “Lady Bird”
(Runners-up: Paul Thomas Anderson, “Phantom Thread”; Jordan Peele, “Get Out”)

Best Actor: Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out”
(Runners-up: Daniel Day-Lewis, “Phantom Thread”; Timothée Chalamet, “Call Me by Your Name”)

Best Actress: Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water”
(Runners-up: Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird”; Cynthia Nixon, “A Quiet Passion”; Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”)

Best Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”
(Runners-up: Michael Stuhlbarg, “Call Me by Your Name,” “The Shape of Water” and “The Post”; Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”)

Best Supporting Actress: Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird”
(Runners-up: Lesley Manville, “Phantom Thread”; Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”)

Best Screenplay: Greta Gerwig, “Lady Bird”
(Runners-up: Jordan Peele, “Get Out”; Paul Thomas Anderson, “Phantom Thread”)

Best Foreign Language Film: “Graduation”
(Runners-up: “Faces Places”; “BPM (Beats Per Minute)”)

Best Non-Fiction Film: “Faces Places”
(Runners-up: “Ex Libris – The New York Public Library”; “Dawson City: Frozen Time”)

Best Cinematography: Roger Deakins, “Blade Runner 2049”
(Runners-up: Hoyta van Hoytema, “Dunkirk”; Alexis Zabe, “The Florida Project”)

Film Heritage Award: Dan Talbot, for his pioneering work as an exhibitor and distributor in bringing worldwide cinema to the United States.

They also posted the vote totals (for the top 3 in each category at least) on their Twitter account, which are kind of fun to see. The two supporting categories were blowouts, while Greta Gerwig won both Screenplay and Director by a single vote.

On 1/5/2018 at 10:23 AM, Dejana said:

Dunkirk, OTOH, should be a Top 3 contender at minimum and probably the frontrunner, given its Metacritic score. The year end lists and critics circle awards are kind a way for them to reevaluate movies from earlier in the year and I think it is suffering for that, as well as not fitting in with the zeitgeist of 2017. Maybe it will have a better showing with the guilds and the Academy, though I can already picture the Brutally Honest Oscar Voters hating it, too, albeit for different reasons than not being woke enough.

I feel like this was basically the worst possible year for a movie like Dunkirk to be in contention. Given the current political situation there's just no way most voters are going to go for something so far removed from the zeitgeist, while due to it's somewhat experimental structure and tone it doesn't even fit cleanly into the "traditional Oscarbait" box for voters who might lean that way.

That being said, it's probably going to clean up at BAFTA (it was a massive hit in the UK), and I don't think Nolan is completely out of the race for Director yet*.

*Although that brings up something else I've been thinking of: I know Director and Picture have become increasingly separate in recent years, but if Get Out does win Best Picture while Jordan Peele loses Director -- after the same thing happened with Steve McQueen and Barry Jenkins, and given that there's still never been a black winner for Best Director -- it's probably not going to go over well. And the same is probably true, to a slightly lesser extent, when it comes to Lady Bird and Gerwig.

Edited January 7, 2018 by AshleyN

[thuganomics85]

So, the Golden Globes just happened:

Quote

Best Motion Picture – Drama
Call Me By Your Name
Dunkirk
The Post
The Shape of Water
WINNER: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
The Disaster Artist
Get Out
The Greatest Showman
I, Tonya
WINNER: Lady Bird

Best Motion Picture – Animated
The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
WINNER: Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent

Best Motion Picture – Foreign Language
A Fantastic Woman
First They Killed My Father
WINNER: In the Fade
Loveless
The Square

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama
Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
WINNER: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Meryl Streep, The Post
Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama
Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Tom Hanks, The Post
WINNER: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Judi Dench, Victoria & Abdul
Helen Mirren, The Leisure Seeker
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
WINNER: Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes
Ansel Elgort, Baby Driver
WINNER: James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Hong Chau, Downsizing
WINNER: Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
WINNER: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Director – Motion Picture
WINNER: Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World
Steven Spielberg, The Post

Best Screenplay – Motion Picture
Guillermo del Toro and Vanessa Taylor, The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Liz Hannah and Josh Singer, The Post
WINNER: Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Aaron Sorkin, Molly’s Game

Best Original Score – Motion Picture
Carter Burwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
WINNER: Alexandre Desplat, The Shape of Water
Jonny Greenwood, Phantom Thread
John Williams, The Post
Hans Zimmer, Dunkirk

Best Original Song – Motion Picture
“Home,” Ferdinand
“Mighty River,” Mudbound
“Remember Me,” Coco
“The Star,” The Star
WINNER: “This Is Me,” The Greatest Showman

 

Definitely surprised over how well Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri fared, considering how polarizing it is.  Sam Rockwell winning over Dafoe might make him Dafoe's biggest threat, although I still suspect the latter is the frontrunner.  Meanwhile, Lady Bird fared quite well in the Comedy category (Best Picture and Actress), although Alison Janney beating out Laurie Metcalf was noticeable.  Other ones worth mentioning was Guillermo Del Toro taking directing, and James Franco and Gary Oldman winning their respected acting categories.

Still, it's the Globes, so I don't take massive stock in them since their results can be quite different from the Oscars, but I'm curious to see if this will change anything.  But, as usual, I'm still waiting for the Guild awards to really make any official predictions.

[scarynikki12]

I stay relaxed at least until SAG. Then I’ll start to either worry or eagerly anticipate.

[NeverLate]

On 23/12/2017 at 7:29 AM, Shannon L. said:

I just saw The Darkest Hour and didn't think I could be more impressed with a performance than I was with Gary Oldman.  He was outstanding. 

He was indeed outstanding.

I so enjoyed Oprah's speech, I love that woman! 

[NeverLate]

On 18/07/2017 at 2:20 PM, AshleyN said:

So, uh, about that...

I watched Dunkirk just recently. It's a difficult film to say, well that was enjoyable. But it's so well done, the boys are so young, and yet so close to one another. Its a snapshot in time, that I hope many will see the movie for what it is, our history.

[absnow54]

Still, it's the Globes, so I don't take massive stock in them since their results can be quite different from the Oscars, but I'm curious to see if this will change anything. But, as usual, I'm still waiting for the Guild awards to really make any official predictions.

There was a fairly large disconnect between the Globes nominations and the SAGs this year, but none of the outliers won any awards, and all of last night's winners have a SAG nom under their belt as well. I think the SAGs may just pare down the comedy vs drama front runners that came out of the Globes. I also think The Shape of Water's best picture chances are officially dead, since they couldn't pick up a Globe win and have no SAG nomination, I'm just curious how Best Director will shake out.

[vibeology]

One interesting thing that may come out of the Globes are Gary Oldman and James Franco facing blacklash now that they've got big wins under their belts. Both showed up with a TimesUp sticker and both were called out by twitter, journalists and other actors for their past actions in light of the TimesUp movement. Franco was a long shot for the Oscar anyhow but Oldman is the frontrunner. Can the anti-Oldman stories overcome his momentum? Will the Academy give him a win in this climate? He can't stay under the radar anymore and he put himself into the story by wearing a sticker so I think it will be interesting to see how this goes.

[Silver Raven]

There's also a #MeToo backlash against Franco.  First the Alley Sheedy comments, and now Violet Paley is dragging him.

https://www.earnthenecklace.com/happened-violet-paley-james-franco-accused-sexual-harassment/

[AshleyN]

A couple of observations:

• Obviously Three Billboards and Lady Bird get a boost here, but it's worth remembering that it was only two years ago that Spotlight went home empty handed from the Globes. Get Out didn't seem to connect with them but I don't think that means it's dead, especially since it's been doing well with the guild awards so far, which are really more important.
• Because of the Olympics the Oscars aren't actually taking place until March this year. Now that's it's been more or less officially crowned the front-runner, that's a long time for Three Billboards to have to fight off the increasingly loud criticisms it's receiving. I feel like Lady Bird came out in a great position though: the two big wins solidify its place as a contender and keep it in the headlines, but it didn't dominate enough to have a big target placed on it's back.
• I think that even if Three Billboards falls to the backlash, Frances McDormand is beloved enough that she'll probably be immune to it. Her win seemed to get the biggest reaction of the night by far.
• Did Natalie Portman and Barbra Streisand just manage to seal Greta Gerwig's Best Director nomination?
• Interesting that aside from Saoirse Ronan, all of the big critics acting winners lost. Oldman is likely going to cruise from here on out (unless his past does come back to haunt him via the media) and the competition is probably just too strong for Sally Hawkins to come back, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Willem Dafoe or Laurie Metcalf bounce back to win.
• I wonder if Casey Affleck's absence last night was a decision that came from him or the HFPA? Either way it would probably be better for everyone if that continued for the rest of the season.

[sweetcookieface]

On 1/6/2018 at 8:12 AM, Ms Blue Jay said:

CMBYN was almost perfect.  I was blown away, even after all of the hype.  Get Out was great.  I was *VERY* underwhelmed with Lady Bird compared to its hype, but Laurie Metcalf was great.

My personal favourite performances this year were the actors who played Walter and Georgina in Get Out, Timothee Chalamet in CMBYN, and Alison Janney in I, Tonya.  (I wasn't as blown away by Margot Robbie.  I don't know.  Not sure how I feel about the movie as a whole.)

I haven't seen everything though.  The Disaster Artist is a very easy watch and very funny.  Hard for me to judge James' performance because I haven't seen The Room, but I found the movie really entertaining.

I HATED Blade Runner 2049.  HATED.  One of the most dull things I have ever seen

@sweetcookieface Saw Battle of the Sexes today.  It was just ok.  Wasn't blown away by Emma unfortunately. I could talk about this stuff all day so thanks for asking us!

Ms Blue Jay - Thanks for sharing your take. I agree with a lot of what you wrote. You also remind me how incredible the actress who played Georgina in Get Out was. I knew it was a long shot, but I wish she would have gotten some awards traction.

I saw All the Money in the World this weekend. (Almost saw The Disaster Artist, too, but was too lazy to go out in the cold.) Aside from the Kevin Spacey drama, I actually didn't know much about the movie going into it (just saw it because it was the best of the options playing at my neighborhood theater).I thought it was pretty good - not among the best movies I saw this year, but a solid thriller. I was, however, pretty blown away by Christopher Plummer's performance. When he started getting awards buzz, I heard some people speculate that it might be just to send a message (sort of a slap in the face to Kevin Spacey). However, having now seen the movie, I can say it was a really great performance. His character was so cold and haughty, but still very believable; I was transfixed every moment he was on screen. I can't even remotely imagine Kevin Spacey in the role; I suspect it would have been a much more cartoonish, mustache-twirling performance. Anyway, Christopher Plummer has shot up on my list of Best Supporting Actor contenders (although Michael Stuhlbarg is probably my favorite, both for his performance in CMBYN and his less heralded - but equally wonderful - performance in Shape of Water).

[absnow54]

47 minutes ago, AshleyN said:

I wonder if Casey Affleck's absence last night was a decision that came from him or the HFPA? Either way it would probably be better for everyone if that continued for the rest of the season.

I wondered that too, Ryan Gosling was the only other acting winner from last year not to present (I had forgotten that Aaron Taylor Johnson beat Mahershala Ali for the Globe.)

[Irlandesa]

1 hour ago, sweetcookieface said:

When he started getting awards buzz, I heard some people speculate that it might be just to send a message (sort of a slap in the face to Kevin Spacey).

I think that was before people saw the movie as his performance has been well received in reviews.  But I do think Ridley Scott got his nomination because of his decision to replace Spacey since they didn't see fit to even nominate the film overall.

[SeanC]

BAFTA:

Quote

Best Film

Call Me By Your Name

Darkest Hour

Dunkirk

The Shape of Water

Three Billboard Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Director

Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049

Luca Guadagnino, Call Me By Your Name

Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk

Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water

Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Actor

Daniel Day Lewis, Phantom Thread

Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out

Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour

Jamie Bell, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool

Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name

Best Actress

Annette Bening, Film Stars Don't Die in  Liverpool

Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Margot Robbie, I, Tonya

Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water

Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird

Best Supporting Actor

Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project

Hugh Grant, Paddington 2

Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World

Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Supporting Actress

Allison Janney, I, Tonya

Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread

Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird

Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour

Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

Best Original Screenplay

Get Out

I, Tonya

Lady Bird

The Shape of Water

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Adapted Screenplay

Call Me By Your Name

The Death of Stalin

Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool

Molly's Game

Paddington 2

Best Cinematography

Blade Runner 2049

Darkest Hour

Dunkirk

The Shape of Water

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Editing

Baby Driver

Blade Runner 2049

Dunkirk

The Shape of Water

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Original Score

Blade Runner 2049

Darkest Hour

Dunkirk

Phantom Thread

The Shape of Water

Best Production Design

Beauty and the Beast

Blade Runner 2049

Darkest Hour

Dunkirk

The Shape of Water

Best Costume Design

Beauty and the Beast

Darkest Hour

I, Tonya

Phantom Thread

The Shape of Water

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Blade Runner 2049

Darkest Hour

I, Tonya

Victoria & Abdul

Wonder

Best Sound

Baby Driver

Blade Runner 2049

Dunkirk

The Shape of Water

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Best Special Visual Effects

Blade Runner 2049

Dunkirk

The Shape of Water

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

War for the Planet of the Apes

Best British Debut Film

The Ghoul

I Am Not A Witch

Jawbone

Kingdom of Us

Lady Macbeth

Best British Film

Darkest Hour

The Death of Stalin

God's Own Country

Lady Macbeth

Paddington 2

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Documentary

City of Ghosts

I Am Not Your Negro

Icarus

An Inconvenient Sequel

Jane

Best Animated Film

Coco

Loving Vincent

My Life as a Courgette

Best Foreign Language Film

Elle

First They Killed My Father

The Handmaiden

Loveless

The Salesman

- Lady Bird and Get Out get kneecapped in the Picture and Director categories.

- Relatedly, Three Billboards is the big winner here, despite coming second in the nomination totals, as it collects pretty much everything it conceivably could have been nominated for.

- The Shape of Water does very well indeed, though curiously Richard Jenkins misses despite being nominated everywhere else.

- Call Me By Your Name has its best industry showing to date, though it also misses Supporting Actor, one of the major categories it had some success in at earlier groups.

- BAFTA's love of Paddington 2 is unlikely to be repeated stateside.

- Blade Runner 2049 gets a bunch of high-profile nominations, including Director.

- There's a lot of boosting of UK-connected personnel here, as you'd expect for BAFTA (see, e.g., the love for Baby Driver in the technical categories).

- Various foreign/documentary films are showing up here a year after their Oscar eligibility.

Edited January 9, 2018 by SeanC

[absnow54]

- The Shape of Water does very well indeed, though curiously Richard Jenkins misses despite being nominated everywhere else.

No one else appreciates Hugh Grant's performance in Paddington 2, I guess.

[AshleyN]

Oof at those Lady Bird and Get Out snubs. Seems like Best Picture is really Three Billboards award to lose. It's gonna get ugly if the Directors branch manages to snub both Gerwig and Peele.

Kind of wild that Judi Dench as Queen Victoria misses here of all places, after making the Globes and SAG.

Interesting that I, Tonya continues to exceed expectations. It's bad luck for Margot Robbie that Best Actress is so fierce this year, because she'd have a great chance of winning in most years.

Edited January 9, 2018 by AshleyN

[NUguy514]

The way the voting for Best Picture works will make it extremely hard for a movie as divisive as Three Billboards to win.  Too many people will rank it last, or almost last, for it to win with the preferential ballot system.  That's the hope I'm holding onto anyway.

[SeanC]

5 minutes ago, NUguy514 said:

The way the voting for Best Picture works will make it extremely hard for a movie as divisive as Three Billboards to win.  Too many people will rank it last, or almost last, for it to win with the preferential ballot system.  That's the hope I'm holding onto anyway.

This will indeed be a test of the preferential ballot system.  Three Billboards (which I haven't seen yet, incidentally, so I can't really opine on the merits) also seems like it's being fitted for the Villain Suit of this awards season, notwithstanding its earlier acclaim.  I'm not quite sure what the more uncontroversial alternative would be at this point, though.

It's kind of fascinating how it feels like Best Director has become a genuinely separate category in the last half-decade, as opposed to its typically being given largely in lockstep with Best Picture.  Since 2012 (which was an enforced split, admittedly), there's only been one film to win both prizes together.  It seems like the tendency is to give Best Director to a more technically sophisticated production, which would certainly favour Del Toro (or Nolan) versus any of the other probable nominees.

[AshleyN]

50 minutes ago, NUguy514 said:

The way the voting for Best Picture works will make it extremely hard for a movie as divisive as Three Billboards to win.  Too many people will rank it last, or almost last, for it to win with the preferential ballot system.  That's the hope I'm holding onto anyway.

That's a good point. But although it's arguably what cost La La Land and The Revenant/The Big Short in the end, in both those cases there was a clear consensus choice to rally around, whereas I wonder if the anti-Three Billboards vote might be too scattered (between Lady Bird, The Shape of Water, and Get Out most likely)?

33 minutes ago, SeanC said:

It's kind of fascinating how it feels like Best Director has become a genuinely separate category in the last half-decade, as opposed to its typically being given largely in lockstep with Best Picture.  Since 2012 (which was an enforced split, admittedly), there's only been one film to win both prizes together.  It seems like the tendency is to give Best Director to a more technically sophisticated production, which would certainly favour Del Toro (or Nolan) versus any of the other probable nominees.

Yeah, I've seen it pointed out that Screenplay is actually much more tied to Best Picture these days, whereas Director and Cinematography seem to go hand in hand now. Maybe it's because that's when I started paying closer attention, but I feel like the 12 Years a Slave/Gravity year was a bit of a turning point there: throughout that whole season there never seemed to be any question that Cuaron was winning Director, even though 12 Years a Slave was always the Best Picture frontrunner. The Affleck snub felt more like a fluke at the time -- he won pretty much everywhere else and probably would have won the Oscar if he'd been nominated -- but maybe it was just a sign of things to come.

On a semi-related note, it's also been awhile since we've had a film pull off a big sweep at the Oscars (the last was what, Slumdog Millionaire?), and it's become much more common for films to win Best Picture with just one or two other awards -- Spotlight won just two awards in total, while Argo, 12 Years a Slave, and Moonlight took three. La La Land looked ready to end that last year, but, well...

Edited January 9, 2018 by AshleyN

[SeanC]

36 minutes ago, AshleyN said:

Maybe it's because that's when I started paying closer attention, but I feel like the 12 Years a Slave/Gravity year was a bit of a turning point there: throughout that whole season there never seemed to be any question that Cuaron was winning Director, even though 12 Years a Slave was always the Best Picture frontrunner. The Affleck snub felt more like a fluke at the time -- he won pretty much everywhere else and probably would have won the Oscar if he'd been nominated -- but maybe it was just a sign of things to come.

That was indeed the real pivot year.  People were skeptical all the way through because there was no real precedent for being able to predict a Picture/Director split in advance like that.

Even though Affleck's exclusion was a fluke, you can actually see the pattern in later years in the Best Director race of 2012.  Affleck's exclusion left the Academy choosing between Lee and Spielberg, and they went with Lee's VFX extravaganza over Spielberg's quieter character drama, much like they would later do with Cuaron, Inarritu's second win, and Chazelle.

[SeanC]

The American Society of Cinematographers’ nominees are:

Quote

Roger Deakins, Blade Runner 2049

Bruno Delbonnel, Darkest Hour

Dan Laustsen, The Shape of Water

Rachel Morrison, Mudbound

Hoyte Van Hoytema, Dunkirk

The ASC is probably the most reliable precursor out there in terms of nominations.  They were 5/5 last year, and almost always get 4/5.

Morrison is the ASC’s first female nominee, and would be the Academy’s as well if she were to make the cut.  However, given the Netflix of it all, I probably wouldn’t bet on that.

If the Academy likes Call Me By Your Name enough, I’d say it’s the most obvious alternate.

Edited January 10, 2018 by SeanC

[scarynikki12]

This strengthens my belief that Dunkirk is the front runner for that category at least.

[hendersonrocks]

Quote

 

Best Supporting Actor

Hugh Grant, Paddington 2

 

I did a double take, yes I did.

Y'all, be straight with me: is there any hope left for The Big Sick? 

[SeanC]

1 hour ago, hendersonrocks said:

I did a double take, yes I did.

Y'all, be straight with me: is there any hope left for The Big Sick? 

Omens are modestly favourable.  It got PGA and SAG Ensemble, as well as the WGA.

[scarynikki12]

1 hour ago, hendersonrocks said:

I did a double take, yes I did.

Y'all, be straight with me: is there any hope left for The Big Sick? 

For sure in the Screenplay category but it's unlikely to be a contender elsewhere.  I am hoping it manages to be in the Picture group even though it has no chance of winning.  It would be a situation where the nomination is the win.  It would certainly convince those who hadn't gotten around to seeing it to make the effort and give Kumail and Emily some resume prestige for any future writing projects. 

[SeanC]

Costume Designers Guild:

Quote

Contemporary Film
Get Out – Nadine Haders
I, Tonya – Jennifer Johnson
Kingsman: The Golden Circle – Arianne Phillips
Lady Bird – April Napier
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – Melissa Toth

Period Film
Dunkirk – Jeffrey Kurland
Murder on the Orient Express – Alexandra Byrne
Phantom Thread – Mark Bridges
The Greatest Showman – Ellen Mirojnick
The Shape of Water – Luis Sequeira

Sci-Fi/Fantasy Film
Beauty and the Beast – Jacqueline Durran
Blade Runner 2049 – Renée April
Star Wars: The Last Jedi – Michael Kaplan
Thor: Ragnarok – Mayes C. Rubeo
Wonder Woman – Lindy Hemming

Weirdly, despite giving themselves fifteen nominees across three categories, that Costume Designers Guild regularly misses some of the eventual Oscar nominees.  Typically the category is most heavy on Period Film nominees.  I could see The Greatest Showman getting into the Oscar category, given its box office success.  Phantom Thread is a movie that is literally about costume design, so it should be an easy in as well.

Tomorrow is the DGA, which is typically 4/5 with the eventual Oscar nominees.  There are three slots that seem pretty fixed (Del Toro, Nolan, McDonagh), and then two more that could go to any combination of Peele, Gerwig, Spielberg, and Guadagnino.

Edited January 10, 2018 by SeanC

[Irlandesa]

13 hours ago, hendersonrocks said:

I did a double take, yes I did.

Y'all, be straight with me: is there any hope left for The Big Sick? 

Paddington 2 has been getting some terrific reviews.  After 87 reviews, it's still at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. He is ineligible for most US awards since it hasn't premiered here yet (and I don't think it had a qualifying run) and even if that weren't the case, it'd probably be limited to a very BAFTA-esque outside-of-the-box-recognizing-a-very-British-film nomination.  So a surprise but, from what I've heard, deserved. 

As for The Big Sick, I actually think its chances have improved somewhat recently since it hit WGA and PGA.  Not enough for a Best Picture win but it might get a BP nomination.  Initially, it wasn't getting a lot of love so I didn't think it had much chance.

[hendersonrocks]

Thanks for The Big Sick affirmation, all. I am keeping my fingers crossed for a screenwriting nomination, and maybe even a best picture nod with the expanded field. One can dream!

On a separate note, the New York Times cancelled an event with James Franco tonight (a discussion about The Disaster Artist with Dave Franco, too) "given the controversy surrounding recent allegations." 

[AshleyN]

11 hours ago, hendersonrocks said:

Thanks for The Big Sick affirmation, all. I am keeping my fingers crossed for a screenwriting nomination, and maybe even a best picture nod with the expanded field. One can dream!

It's a bit of a shame, because in most years that screenplay nomination probably would have been a given, but that category is stacked this year (there's a pretty good chance that Call Me By Your Name will be the only Best Picture nominee to come out of the Adapted field) so it's most likely going to be fighting it out for the last spot (probably against I, Tonya, unless Phantom Thread enjoys a late push or the Academy shows more love for The Post than anyone else has).

11 hours ago, SeanC said:

Costume Designers Guild:

I, Tonya kind of feels like it's stretching the definition of "contemporary", doesn't it?

I guess you could argue that Lady Bird does too but I'm happy to see it get a mention, even though I'm sure this will be the only one. That area of "recent past" is a tricky one to navigate, but while the costumes weren't as flashy or elaborate as some I thought they did a fantastic job of evoking a sense of time, place, and character.

Edited January 11, 2018 by AshleyN

[Irlandesa]

1 hour ago, AshleyN said:

I, Tonya kind of feels like it's stretching the definition of "contemporary", doesn't it?

Any movie taking place within 25 years of the voting period is considered contemporary.  I love CMBYN's costumes but it's too old to be contemporary and not flashy enough to be period.

[SeanC]

DGA nominees:

Quote

Feature Film

Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water

Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird

Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk

Jordan Peele, Get Out

Feature Director Debut

Geremy Jasper, Patti Cake$

Jordan Peele, Get Out

William Oldroyd, Lady Macbeth

Aaron Sorkin, Molly's Game

Taylor Sheridan, Wind River

The DGA usually goes 4/5 with the Academy, though they have gone 5/5 on occasion.

I'm not clear how Sheridan is eligible for the directorial debut award, as he has another credit from 2011 that he himself has referred to as a feature debut.

Edited January 11, 2018 by SeanC

[AimingforYoko]

Isn't Lady Bird Gerwig's debut? How is she not up for that prize as well?

[AshleyN]

1 hour ago, AimingforYoko said:

Isn't Lady Bird Gerwig's debut? How is she not up for that prize as well?

She was credited as co-director on a film she made with Joe Swanberg back in her mumblecore days, so I assume she was ineligible. 'Course that doesn't explain Sheridan.

Edited January 12, 2018 by AshleyN

[scarynikki12]

I wouldn't be surprised if this is our roster when the Oscars get announced.  I wish Patty Jenkins could sneak in for Wonder Woman but that's the pipiest of pipe dreams.

[thuganomics85]

Critics Choice Awards time!

Quote

FILM CATEGORIES

BEST PICTURE

The Big Sick
Call Me by Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Florida Project
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Post
The Shape of Water — WINNER
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

BEST DIRECTOR

Guillermo del Toro – The Shape of Water — WINNER
Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird
Martin McDonagh – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Christopher Nolan – Dunkirk
Luca Guadagnino – Call Me By Your Name
Jordan Peele – Get Out
Steven Spielberg – The Post

BEST ACTOR

Timothée Chalamet – Call Me by Your Name
James Franco – The Disaster Artist
Jake Gyllenhaal – Stronger
Tom Hanks – The Post
Daniel Kaluuya – Get Out
Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread
Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour — WINNER

BEST ACTRESS

Jessica Chastain – Molly’s Game
Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri — WINNER
Margot Robbie – I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird
Meryl Streep – The Post

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project
Armie Hammer – Call Me By Your Name
Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water
Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri — WINNER
Patrick Stewart – Logan
Michael Stuhlbarg – Call Me by Your Name

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Mary J. Blige – Mudbound
Hong Chau – Downsizing
Tiffany Haddish – Girls Trip
Holly Hunter – The Big Sick
Allison Janney – I, Tonya — WINNER
Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water

BEST ACTING ENSEMBLE

Dunkirk
Lady Bird
Mudbound
The Post
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri — WINNER

BEST YOUNG ACTOR/ACTRESS

Mckenna Grace – Gifted
Dafne Keen – Logan
Brooklynn Prince – The Florida Project — WINNER
Millicent Simmonds – Wonderstruck
Jacob Tremblay – Wonder 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Guillermo del Toro and Vanessa Taylor – The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird 
Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani – The Big Sick
Liz Hannah and Josh Singer – The Post
Martin McDonagh – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Jordan Peele – Get Out — WINNER

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

James Ivory – Call Me by Your Name — WINNER
Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber – The Disaster Artist
Dee Rees and Virgil Williams – Mudbound 
Aaron Sorkin – Molly’s Game
Jack Thorne, Steve Conrad, Stephen Chbosky – Wonder

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

The Breadwinner
Coco — WINNER
Despicable Me 3
The LEGO Batman Movie
Loving Vincent

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

BPM (Beats Per Minute)
A Fantastic Woman
First They Killed My Father
In the Fade — WINNER
The Square
Thelma

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Roger Deakins – Blade Runner 2049 — WINNER
Hoyte van Hoytema – Dunkirk
Dan Laustsen – The Shape of Water
Rachel Morrison – Mudbound
Sayombhu Mukdeeprom – Call Me by Your Name

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Paul Denham Austerberry, Shane Vieau, Jeff Melvin – The Shape of Water — WINNER
Jim Clay, Rebecca Alleway – Murder on the Orient Express
Nathan Crowley, Gary Fettis – Dunkirk
Dennis Gassner, Alessandra Querzola – Blade Runner 2049
Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer – Beauty and the Beast
Mark Tildesley, Véronique Melery – Phantom Thread

BEST EDITING

Michael Kahn, Sarah Broshar – The Post
Paul Machliss, Jonathan Amos – Baby Driver — WINNER
Lee Smith – Dunkirk
Joe Walker – Blade Runner 2049
Sidney Wolinsky – The Shape of Water

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Renée April – Blade Runner 2049
Mark Bridges – Phantom Thread — WINNER
Jacqueline Durran – Beauty and the Beast
Lindy Hemming – Wonder Woman
Luis Sequeira – The Shape of Water

BEST HAIR AND MAKEUP

Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour — WINNER
I, Tonya
The Shape of Water 
Wonder

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Thor: Ragnarok
War for the Planet of the Apes — WINNER
Wonder Woman

BEST ACTION MOVIE

Baby Driver
Logan
Thor: Ragnarok
War for the Planet of the Apes
Wonder Woman — WINNER

BEST COMEDY

The Big Sick — WINNER
The Disaster Artist
Girls Trip
I, Tonya
Lady Bird

BEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY

Steve Carell – Battle of the Sexes
James Franco – The Disaster Artist — WINNER
Chris Hemsworth – Thor: Ragnarok
Kumail Nanjiani – The Big Sick
Adam Sandler – The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected)

BEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY

Tiffany Haddish – Girls Trip
Zoe Kazan – The Big Sick
Margot Robbie – I, Tonya — WINNER
Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird
Emma Stone – Battle of the Sexes

BEST SCI-FI OR HORROR MOVIE

Blade Runner 2049
Get Out — WINNER
It
The Shape of Water 

BEST SONG

“Evermore” – Beauty and the Beast
“Mystery of Love” – Call Me by Your Name
“Remember Me” – Coco — WINNER
“Stand Up for Something” – Marshall
“This Is Me” – The Greatest Showman

BEST SCORE

Alexandre Desplat – The Shape of Water — WINNER
Jonny Greenwood – Phantom Thread
Dario Marianelli – Darkest Hour
Benjamin Wallfisch and Hans Zimmer – Blade Runner 2049
John Williams – The Post
Hans Zimmer – Dunkirk

 

Starting to wonder if I should rethink my whole "Dafoe's got this in the bag" thing, since Sam Rockwell really seems to be building momentum now.  Again though, I'll wait and see how the SAGS play out, before really making any kind of prediction.  Other then that, a good night for The Shape of Water.

[SeanC]

I think Rockwell is the probable winner there.  His film has momentum, and he's a well-liked actor who's just never ended up among the nominees before (a la J.K. Simmons a few years ago).  The Florida Project has faded into the background over the course of the season.

If Del Toro ends up being the favourite for Director (increasingly likely), that's going to amplify the brawl for Original Screenplay between McDonagh, Gerwig and Peele (in the latter two cases, the only other opportunity to give them a trophy, as they aren't credited producers and wouldn't receive anything if their film won Best Picture).

[vb68]

I was hoping that Timothee Chalamet might get some momentum and provide more competition for the win, but Gary Oldman really is just gliding to that Oscar.

I'm also wondering if James Franco is out of it now. Probably so. I haven't been impressed with his media appearances this week at all.

I'm really hoping Greta Gerwig might still come through for Best Director. I'm thinking that push from Natalie Portman didn't hurt at all. 

Edited January 12, 2018 by vb68

[SeanC]

6 hours ago, vb68 said:

I'm also wondering if James Franco is out of it now. Probably so. I haven't been impressed with his media appearances this week at all.

It probably depends on how rapidly this particular scandal saturated the media environment, given that it has only started to really gain media traction in the last few days of the voting period.

I'd be interested to know how many Academy members vote early versus late.