S18.E07: Week 7: Latin Night

[SanLynn]

Thanks for the comments about the Aftershow on Aferbuzz, I forgot they do one for DWTS so I've got it downloaded so I can catch up on it tomorrow.

 

For me it's not that Charlie is being scored too harshly (although I definitely think the 8 this week was more than a bit much) it's that the others, particularly James and Amy (and Nene but she's gone so it's not an issue) are being overscored. Charlie was better than James, Danica and Amy this week but you wouldn't know it by the scores. If they could fix that problem I'd be a much happier camper.

 

I have mad props for Amy and what she's done but they aren't scoring her like she's any other contestant and it bugs.

 

And, as someone said before me, James is stompy and no where near as good a dancer as he's being scored as.

 

Essentially it's like this every season. The judges are too afraid to score the way they should so that the decision on who goes home is largely on the voting audience. Doesn't mean I have to like it.

Edited May 1, 2014 by SanLynn

[Lonesome Rhodes]

I'm pretty sure the "transformation" we've seen in Maks is due to one simple cause:  Meryl.

 

Maks is a BIG one when it comes to giving respect.  You want props?  Earrrrrrrrrn them!  Well, who came in with a better resume than Meryl?  She is everything Maks respects - most especially she is all-day tough (I love using a football term!).

 

Then, he immediately sees that she is all about getting better and she does not care what it takes to be better.  Perfect attitude.  So.  Maks knew instantly that he had the bell cow (!)   and he could just let things happen.  He did not need to add any energy off the floor.  The jidges and the public would give Meryl full marks for anything she did.  

 

I am more convinced than ever that the harsh treatment of Charlie, especially by Len, is designed to create buzz for the show and for Charlie.   It's the old Simon Cowell ju-jitsu.  Unless Charlie is actually a jerk behind the scenes, the chances of which are .00000001%, the only way Len would be so cold towards Charlie would be to help him.

Edited May 1, 2014 by Lonesome Rhodes

[Hybiscus]

bearcatfan, couldn't agree with you more.  This is my first season watching DWTS (and will likely be my last), so I didn't know about the shitty judging. Not only are they inconsistent, they don't judge all contestants on an equal basis.  Despite what Len told Amy at the start of the season.  They're judging each contestant on a different scale.  (It's frustrating, especially for us Charlie fans.) 

 

I think Charlie's package of "I want perfect scores" was a set up, mainly because there is no other drama with him and Sharna.  They both have relationships outside of the show, so no showmance to support.  They show up to practice, and that's what they do.  A couple weeks ago when asked about his scores, he said he was more bothered that Meryl hadn't gotten a perfect score. 

 

I'm thrilled that Charlie finally gets a Quickstep next week.  But I'm not thrilled the guest judge is Abbie Lee Miller.  *shudders*

[Joystickenvy]

Agree that the issue isn't really that Charlie is underscored, but that others are overscored, unless you view it as grading on a curve. For the most part, seems the scores stay pretty bunched up, so I look at it as mostly leaving things in the hands of the fans who vote, though I do remember one season where they added in a "twist" that basically allowed the judges to disregard the fan vote to keep a pet in the game. I only watch sporadically, but I'm sure that's not unique to that season.

I have higher expectations for Amy, Meryl, James & Charlie than say NeNe, because they are young and fit, so I'm more apt to be critical of their mistakes, even if they are overall at a much higher level than others. Par for the course when you hold a "competition" with contestants of such widely varied natural ability, experience and physical fitness. If this were a real dance competition, I'd be a lot more worked up about the scores. I think they only exist on DWTS to give fans something to argue about.

[tarotx]

My problem isn't the individual scores per say but the way they talk to Charlie. Like he's a naughty child.

 

Charlie is an athlete who learns the way the score works, has programs created that hit all the bullets, practice out the wazoo and then performs it the best he can. Then he waits for the marks and reads the scoring sheet to see what the judges like or dislikes based in goe and PCS. Charlie isn't getting true feedback from the judges, especially constructive ones that can help Charlie know how to fix the issue he's been having. 

 

This week, though it's outside of the show, he's finally getting feedback and I hope he and Sharna reads it and really takes it heart. 

Edited May 2, 2014 by tarotx

[superdeluxe]

I think there's a difference in talking about something in conversation and using it as a centerpiece in your package.

 

Yeah, but it's out there now.  And now that it's out there, I'm sure it'll start being mentioned in the packages.

Edited May 1, 2014 by superdeluxe

[fembotz]

I doubt it will be in her packages. It probably was not that serious -- one of her little toes. We saw her barefoot a week later in a package and her feet looked fine.

[OakGoblinFly]

I'm pretty sure the "transformation" we've seen in Maks is due to one simple cause:  Meryl.

 

 

 

Except for the time with Mel B. or Erin or Kirstie or you get the point.  The issue I have with this "story line" - that Meryl is somehow "transforming" Maks is that it has been done before (and personally I think better with Mel B.).

 

Maks has the same problem that Sharna does - they both have as close to professional trained dancers as their celebrity partner and instead of concentrating on dance technique and dance moves - they throw in tricks, flips, spins, and insist that the dance be performed at hyper speed - and that, for me, makes the dances look sloppy, unfinished, and detracts from the flow.

[LadyMustang65]

FWIW regarding the scoring, I saw an interview with Carrie Ann on some talk show, and she was explaining that the judges don't really rank the celebs against each other but rather against themselves (or what the judges think they are or should be capable of).  So an 8 for Nene is not the same as an 8 for Charlie.  An 8 for Nene means she's doing pretty well for what they expect of her while an 8 for Charlie means they think he's capable of much more.  I can kind of understand that logic since there's no way that Nene would ever be capable of what Charlie, Meryl and Danica have already done, and they want a way to reward her improvement with better scores instead of always giving her 5s and 6s while everyone else is getting 8s, 9s and 10s.  But on the flip side, when the scoring is so close, there's that much more chance that a better, harder-working celeb will go home before someone who is less capable or who isn't trying as hard.  Plus I imagine it must be extremely frustrating for Charlie to work as hard as he does and get the same scores as a Nene who's terrible.  It would be better if the judges explained that on the show or at least said something like, "Charlie - that was a good effort but we think you're capable of even more and that's reflected in your score."  And for heaven's sake, would someone take away anything over a 7 paddle the first few weeks?  There is so little room to reward improved performances when they're handing out 8s and 9s on week one.  Or institute a two-score system - one score for technique and one score for performance.  At least that way someone who is entertaining but not very good can get a decent performance score while it is being tempered with a much lower score for poor technique. 

[kitcloudkicker]

Kristen, on Afterbuzz, mentioned that ratings tanked on the All Star season because nobody wanted to watch only good dancers, without the average "everyman" people in there. Personally, I like to watch the best dancers, but if that turns off a large portion of their viewing public it does make total sense to grade people on a personal curve. The show's not really about finding the "best" dancer, it's really more about finding the favorite one. Honestly it seems like the purpose of the scores, really, is to generate more media buzz, give people something to talk about, and inject more drama, and "controversy" into the show

[spanana]

 

FWIW regarding the scoring, I saw an interview with Carrie Ann on some talk show, and she was explaining that the judges don't really rank the celebs against each other but rather against themselves (or what the judges think they are or should be capable of).  So an 8 for Nene is not the same as an 8 for Charlie.  An 8 for Nene means she's doing pretty well for what they expect of her while an 8 for Charlie means they think he's capable of much more.

 

I'm not defending the crazy judging because sometimes the scores are on crack, but it pretty much has to be like this.  Because this is a show where one cast includes people Billy Dee Williams and Meryl Davis.  Since everybody is coming in with a different skill set and ability level, they can't all be held to the same standards.  And no non-ringer would ever do the show in the first place if they knew they were going to be held to the same standard as gold medalist ice dancers.  It just can't work that way.  Every now and again people bellyache that the show should only cast people at the same level of ability, but that would be nearly impossible when you factor in skill, age, career background, and etc.  There are always going to be people with a leg up, literally.

 

I also agree that I had less of a problem with Charlie's scores as much as how the judges talked to him, and I didn't even particularly like his dance.  I'm one of those people that needs Sharna to dial back and allow Charlie to just do a clean routine without putting everything but the kitchen sink into the equation.

 

I don't know if the all-stars season tanked in the ratings because people didn't want to see only good dancers, but it does take a bit of the everyman quality out of the proceedings.  Also because we had seen all of those people before and pretty much knew what they were capable of, there were no real surprises.  Perhaps surprises as to who made it to the end, but none of the dancers were unknown quantities.  And I do agree that as much as there is a portion of the audience that just wants to see good dancing and so will back someone like Meryl, there is also a portion of the audience that wants to root for a non-dancer underdog with an improvement arc, which I think is partly why Candace has found support this season.  Of the remaning she's really the only one working that arc.

[Bitsy]

If everybody were scored realistically against each other, it would have started off with Billy Dee Williams getting 1's, Meryl and Charlie getting 9's and 10's, and everybody else getting somewhere in the middle.  That would be kind of depressing - for the participants and for the viewers.

 

I think it's fine that the scores aren't that far apart; there should be a chance for the voters to make up the difference if there's a dancer they really love who is not one of the top scorers.  Otherwise, there's no point to having audience votes.

 

What I really object to is that the scores are all so bunched at the top that there's nowhere to go anymore.  A 9 shouldn't be a bad score, but it is!  (An 8, at this point, means you are probably going home.)  I agree with the judges that Meryl & Charlie shouldn't be getting 10's unless it is for something really spectacular and perfect.  On the other hand, when they get 9's for a great-but-not-that-great routine and that causes them to wind up at the bottom of the leaderboard with Nene, there's something wrong.

 

The judges should have made more use of those 5, 6, and 7 paddles and not gone so high so fast with the scores.

[sunnyheart]

Finally made it over here. Hi everyone!

 

I think Maks has done the showmance thing so many times that he's starting to run out of material. In the interviews last night, I heard him recycle a few lines he used with both Erin and Kirstie.

toonces!  You made it!! 

 

I really don't see the Maks and Meryl showmance stuff - maybe I'm immune to it now.  After all, there is only one true love for Maks and that is Maks.  For me, I'm more over Peta and James trying to tell me about their supposed chemistry and coy evasiveness about whether they are dating or not.  Who cares.  If you have to tell me about it, then there ain't much to see.

 

Kelly and Val were the squickiest of squicky. If I had to watch one more cutaway to commerical where they where up against a wall, gazing into each other's eyes, I was going to scream.

Not to get too far off subject, but I have to say that Kelly and Val slobbering over each other was such a turnoff for me that they lost me.  I was with them until the Contemporary - I don't know what happened after that, but they were just too, too much for me.  Such a shame because I loved Kelly in her season.

[sidwich]

 

Kristen, on Afterbuzz, mentioned that ratings tanked on the All Star season because nobody wanted to watch only good dancers, without the average "everyman" people in there. Personally, I like to watch the best dancers, but if that turns off a large portion of their viewing public it does make total sense to grade people on a personal curve. The show's not really about finding the "best" dancer, it's really more about finding the favorite one. Honestly it seems like the purpose of the scores, really, is to generate more media buzz, give people something to talk about, and inject more drama, and "controversy" into the show

 

I think ratings have generally been on a downward trend even without the All-Star Season.

 

I'll give a little background.  I'm a former competitive ballroom/Latin dancer (of about 15 years), and I've taught dance students myself.  What I find interesting about the show is that it's really about the journey of people learning to do something that's outside the comfort zone of many of them.  (With usually a couple of ringers each season for variety).

 

To me, the show is really about how each of them approaches the challenge.  I personally think the most interesting seasons and stories have been about the ones who unexpectedly embrace the challenge and/or are doing it for some kind of personal reason (like Jerry Springer).  Although I enjoy it when there's good dancing or choreography, I don't really consider it a show about dancing per se.

 

I have a friend who works at ABC and has worked with the show (although it's not her main job).  Anyway, during the All-Star Season, I mentioned to her that I didn't really understand why they were doing it when their main storyline, this journey in  a new challenge, was essentially totally negated by having just All-Stars.  

 

And she shook her head, and said, yes, the challenge with the All-Star Season really was trying to come up with what the show was going to be about that season and what the storylines were going to be.  I don't know that they ever figured it out.

[SanLynn]

Never mind I was just ranting pointlessly, should have read it again before I hit save.

Edited May 1, 2014 by SanLynn

[mbutterfly]

It is frustrating to me because this scoring system seems fairly reasonable to keep the middle people in (and not overwhelmed by the really incapable dancers who have audience sympathy), but they don't really do it with the Billy Dees or he would have scored 9s or something because I think he was doing as much as a man with his crippling disease is capable of. 

[crowceilidh]

On Afterbuzz, Kirstyn said that the DWTS fb page has been very accurate this season.  If true, here are how those fb likes for each dance shake out (the first score is the number of likes for the individual dance, the second is for the group dance, the third is the total).  I put them in order of who had the most popular individual dance, because I'm not sure how the group dance affects one's voting...

 

Celeb       Pair dance      Group dance       Total

Meryl         3248                2129                    5377

James       3109               909                       4018

Candace   2115               2129                    4244

Amy           1837              2129                    3966

Danica       1311              2129                    3440

Charlie      1291               909                      2200

 

If Kirstyn's claim is correct, we look like we're in for an actually shocking elimination.  I don't think I believe it. 

[Bitsy]

Almost as many people liked James' samba as Meryl's?  That's interesting.  And Charlie at the bottom!

 

crow how did you figure out the likes?  It would be interesting to go back and see what those numbers looked like in previous weeks.

 

When Kirstyn talked about this on Afterbuzz, I wasn't sure what type of information from Facebook she was going by.  I figured they were doing some kind of weekly poll.

[Dots And Stripes]

Thanks, crowceilidh! That's an interesting theory, and I think the numbers are somewhat informative, but it definitely has room for error. Facebook is probably a decent measure of trends and how broad someone's support is since people can vote there. I don't think it takes into account the enthusiasm of each voter or correlates to votes, especially since you can vote up to 6 times for the same couple on one account. 

 

I think this might tell us more if there was a huge gap. Danica and Charlie are pretty close here, and while Danica's team dance is more popular, Charlie was featured more prominently in his team's dance and package. I don't know that I heard Danica make a peep after she was picked for her team.

 

I wonder how well this has stacked up in weeks past. 

 

This also has me thinking that whoever will be sent home on Monday has technically already been eliminated. They can't change their scores or do anything to save themselves. It's kind of unfortunate that Amy or Danica might be practicing injured when they are already out of the competition, they just don't know it. They would be practicing in pain for nothing.

[crowceilidh]

I'm not the person who claimed that the fb likes seemed to be trending accurately this season.  That would be Kirstyn on Afterbuzz.

 

The Dancing with the Stars fb page has over 5 million likes itself, but I couldn't see a follower total.  Every week they put up a still from each dance and everybody who is so inclined "likes" their favourite(s).  

 

https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.10152356638066740.1073741842.8214706739&type=1

 

You just look for the likes exactly where you would ordinarily look at them on any facebook pic.

[Toonces464]

It's kind of unfortunate that Amy or Danica might be practicing injured when they are already out of the competition, they just don't know it. They would be practicing in pain for nothing.

 

 

I would hope, considering their injuries, TPTB would let them know if they were being eliminated so they didn't have to put themselves at further risk and could just bow out due to the injuries.

[Barbara Manatee]

I do think it's going to be a very close thing for Charlie. James' fans seem to be really motivated, so he should be able to overcome his 1 point scoring disadvantage. Charlie is going to need a bunch of the shared Davis/White fan base to have realized that Meryl's safe and thrown him extra votes if he's going to pass Danica.

I am surprised Amy isn't higher.

[crowceilidh]

Not sure what thread to put this in because we're talking about this here...  These are the fb scores from Party Anthem night:

 

Meryl    6718

James  3263

Amy      2558

Charlie  2332

Candace 1885

Danica    1827

NeNe     610

Drew     489

 

I think I might be seeing the reason why the judges are trying to whip up the indignation over their treatment of Charlie.

Edited May 2, 2014 by crowceilidh

[Bitsy]

Ok, I counted switch week because it was the only other post I could find where people were asked to "like" their favorite dance:

Meryl          10,000

James          4,400

Amy              3,300

Candace       3,200

Charlie          2,400

Danica          1,900

Drew             1,800

Nene             1,300

Cody             1,200

Cody is the one that went home the following week.  Nene and Drew were out the following weeks, although not in that order.  So yeah, I think this might be a good (though surprising!) general indicator of where everyone stands.

 

I'm rooting for Meryl, so it's reassuring that she appears to be killing it.  I wanted Charlie to get to the final though. :(

[Dots And Stripes]

I do think it's going to be a very close thing for Charlie. James' fans seem to be really motivated, so he should be able to overcome his 1 point scoring disadvantage. Charlie is going to need a bunch of the shared Davis/White fan base to have realized that Meryl's safe and thrown him extra votes if he's going to pass Danica.

I am surprised Amy isn't higher.

Something to think about though is that even half the Davis/White fan base is bound to be larger than Amy's pre-existing fan base. Before the show, very few people knew who she was. I think she can connect with the general audience of the show, but so can Meryl and Charlie. Really I think that for any of those three to beat James they need to be winning over new fans, not just counting on people who liked them before the show.

 

Not sure what thread to put this in because we're talking about this here...  These are the fb scores from Party Anthem night:

 

 

I think I might be seeing the reason why the judges are trying to whip up the indignation over their treatment of Charlie.

Why? Charlie did better by that count before the indignation. If anything, it looks like he lost support this week, maybe because it was a strange dance. I don't think the judges said anything that bad anyway. Len saying it wasn't special sounded cold, but not being special enough for a 10 isn't the worst thing. The other two complimented him while giving actual constructive feedback, which is rare for them. I think the tone of the package (I want a 10) set the judges up to talk about why Charlie wasn't getting 10's. Maybe with a different edit they could have focused on what was good enough for a 9, but I think Charlie is better off hearing what is keeping him from earning those top marks.

 

Maybe a numbers thread would be a good place for an in depth look at the facebook numbers.

[Barbara Manatee]

Everyone did better on Party Anthem night, not just Charlie. It looks as though a lot fewer people bothered to like anything this week.

Edited May 2, 2014 by Barbara Manatee

[Dots And Stripes]

Everyone did better on Party Anthem night, not just Charlie. It looks as though a lot fewer people bothered to like anything this week.

Right, but Charlie dropped pretty far relative to the others. Charlie was in the middle of the pack and dropped down to the bottom.

[crowceilidh]

 

Everyone did better on Party Anthem night, not just Charlie. It looks as though a lot fewer people bothered to like anything this week.

 

Yes, but the voting goes on ad infinitum or ad fb-apocalypse or whatever.  So the number of likes for party anthem week counts my vote today if I didn't vote on one earlier.  I don't think we could tell about the actual numbers unless somebody had been doing a comparable count - such as, what number of votes each package of stills got 24 hours after posting.  And also, the person who's posting, would have be posting at the same interval post-show in each case to be more accurate.  And we might have to have an idea of how many people were following the site each week as that number has to be changing too.

[Barbara Manatee]

I can see how you could look at it that way. I could also argue that he's stayed in basically the same position but the people under him have left. I not sure there's a real distinction in there, though, so I won't.

A couple of things. Those are really small numbers, considering how many people watch the show. I'm surprised to hear it's been a good predictor of the results. If it does reflect voting trends, James wasn't anywhere near the bottom two on the last show, so why did they put him there? His fans are already riled up.

[Bitsy]

I could also argue that he's stayed in basically the same position but the people under him have left.

That is true.  Charlie was basically hovering near Danica and Candace, and while he and Danica are still basically the same, the big change is that Candace has surged ahead, which matches the upward trajectory she's been having in her journey the past few weeks.

[Flick]

A couple of things. Those are really small numbers, considering how many people watch the show. I'm surprised to hear it's been a good predictor of the results. If it does reflect voting trends, James wasn't anywhere near the bottom two on the last show, so why did they put him there? His fans are already riled up.

I agree with you in regards to the numbers and just because it's been a decent predictor this far doesn't mean that it will continue to be. My general experience with this and other shows is that the Internet fandom does not necessarily represent the general population that watches the show. That can be a double edged sword of sorts. On the one hand you have a solid base of people who are highly engaged in your product. On the other hand you have people who are going to be paying attention to and discussing your show critically. That fanbase is going to spot and react to manipulation. They may not all react to it the same way and they may not all agree on certain points, but there are big ones they are fairly consistent in reacting to. Is Charlie's positioning this week a reaction to a perceived manipulation to get people to vote for him and thus people aren't liking his photos in reaction to that? I have no idea but I also think that if it is, we won't see the same reaction from the casual viewing audience. There are other shows I watch where the Internet fandom sees production manipulation and uniformly rejects it but casual viewers I know who aren't as invested eat it up with a spoon. We could see that happen here. Or we could get a shock elimination. There's no way to tell.

[Bitsy]

Those are really small numbers, considering how many people watch the show. I'm surprised to hear it's been a good predictor of the results.

That is true, the numbers are miniscule.  I certainly wouldn't count on Charlie being eliminated this week just because Danica got 20 more Facebook likes on her dance than he did. 

 

However, it does seems to be a good snapshot of the baseline level of support people have been going through the competition with. Cody "Six Million Twitter Followers" was such a wild card - nobody knew whether he was getting zillions of votes or had very little support at all.  The latter was apparently true. 

 

Likewise, the number crunchers at a certain website that shall remain nameless continue to believe because of their own biases that nobody likes Meryl and the judges are propping her up to make up for lack of votes.  That appears to be completely unfounded.

[TeeM]

 

 

 

 

Likewise, the number crunchers at a certain website that shall remain nameless continue to believe because of their own biases that nobody likes Meryl and the judges are propping her up to make up for lack of votes.  That appears to be completely unfounded.

Don't even get me started on that particular number crunching board. All those like must be coming from the 5 crazed Maks fans who have nothing to do but power vote or watch his videos on FB. Or maybe its the producers themselves liking those videos as part of their grand plan fix for handing Maks a mirrorball this season, right? ;) 

[Toonces464]

Don't even get me started on that particular number crunching board. All those like must be coming from the 5 crazed Maks fans who have nothing to do but power vote or watch his videos on FB. Or maybe its the producers themselves liking those videos as part of their grand plan fix for handing Maks a mirrorball this season, right? ;)

 

 

That's one reason I put little to no stock in online polls, etc. Certain fan bases power voting can definitely sway the results and the crazy part of Maks's fan base does not hide the fact they spend every waking moment voting over and over and over, All you had to do was look at his Twitter feed this weekend with that silly People poll about the hottest brothers. LOL

[spanana]

A couple of things. Those are really small numbers, considering how many people watch the show. I'm surprised to hear it's been a good predictor of the results. If it does reflect voting trends, James wasn't anywhere near the bottom two on the last show, so why did they put him there? His fans are already riled up.

 

 

I think James was put in the fake B2 mostly because somebody had to be there.  I think the guy has been pulling votes all season long and he also came in with a pretty good pre-existing fanbase.  Then again, so did Cody and we see where that got him.  But basically they needed somebody to stand next to NeNe and it would have been relatively mean to put Candace in the B2 three weeks running.  They had to cut her a break eventually if she was in no danger.  They also probably figured they would cut Danica a break with her injury and they put in her in the B3 the week before.  Putting Meryl in the B2 would have looked ridiculous and made the whole thing even more obvious than it was.  I'm not sure why they couldn't have made Amy sweat it out, but considering she was injured anyway it wouldn't have worked. 

 

While I don't think Facebook is the be all indicator of who will go home, I do think there is a good possibility of either Danica or Charlie leaving this week.  It's surprised me all season long how little support Charlie seems to have on social media versus Meryl.  As for Danica, she's good, but there have only been a few weeks where she has really stood out.  She doesn't seem to generate as much attention as the other female competitors.  Even this week where I expected her to get a ton of sympathy for her rib, Amy gets hurt five minutes later and that was the end of that.  Afterbuzz was predicting Danica will leave and I'm sure if she does we will hear the usual outrage about a good dancer leaving too soon, but those are the breaks.  Though it won't generate as much outrage as a Charlie elimination.

 

I hope Candace is ready for the backlash she's going to get as she starts outlasting better dancers.  I don't have a problem with her and she's improving, but if she makes it through to the semis and even possibly the finals, she will start drawing the ire of the fans of those who she outlasted. 

[LadyMustang65]

I think James was put in the fake B3 for the same reason Charlie was  - so they could announce that someone from Team Vida was going home.  The whole team was in jeopardy.  Once they did that, I think it would have been too obvious it was Nene going home if they had left Charlie as one of the faux B2.  I don't think anyone would have believed for a second that Charlie was leaving.  James' popularity is less obvious, and despite the judges' scores, the general consensus on boards is that he's not that good a dancer.  He created at least a bit of suspense with the B2 while Charlie, imo anyway, would not have.

[OakGoblinFly]

I hope Candace is ready for the backlash she's going to get as she starts outlasting better dancers.  I don't have a problem with her and she's improving, but if she makes it through to the semis and even possibly the finals, she will start drawing the ire of the fans of those who she outlasted. 

 

 

Why?  This show has never been about the "better" dancer - it is a popularity contest wrapped up in a dance environment.

[Woodrose]

Random sighting on Instagram:

 

http://i.instagram.com/p/nfzKglp3CX/

 

According to this, Len thinks the winner will be either Charlie or Amy.???  Knock me over with a feather.  I guess Len sees Charlie as being on the Donald Driver trajectory, not the Ralph Macchio path.

 

I will be truly shocked if Charlie leaves this week; I'm expecting Danica to go home.  I'll be happy for her to be able to rest and heal, if so.

[spanana]

Why?  This show has never been about the "better" dancer - it is a popularity contest wrapped up in a dance environment.

I'm not saying Candace should get backlash.  But there is always fan backlash when a less talented dancer stays over more talented dancers.  No matter how many times one can stress this show is a popularity contest and not a dance skill contest, there is the same general outrage season to season when good to great dancers fall by the wayside and we have the likes of Bristol, Kirstie Alley, Bill E. and Marie Osmond in the finals.  As it is I saw some factions getting pissed last week when Candace was declared safe.    And mind you I also don't think Candace is a Bristol Palin or a Marie Osmond.  She's working her tail off and she wants to be there and technically she's not that bad, at least in her legs.  She has shown far more technique than someone like NeNe for example.  But fans will need a scapegoat when their person gets voted off and it usually goes to the worst dancer remaining.

[Bitsy]

Candace's time will be up soon.  There are only three shows left, so there's not much time for a backlash.  Either she'll get eliminated before the final, or if she somehow makes it to the final, will be eliminated there.   That's the best she's going to do anyway so I wouldn't chalk it up to backlash.

 

I don't think anyone has quite figured out exactly how social media correlates to votes, but I'm sure there is a connection.  The Bing calculator measuring all social media activity has been correct with all the eliminations so far, I believe.  The site-that-shall-not-be-named has instructed their minions to dismiss all social media clues and just go with their completely unfounded conspiracy theories about how it's all fixed for Maks & Meryl to win.

[COESpiral]

Random sighting on Instagram:

 

http://i.instagram.com/p/nfzKglp3CX/

 

According to this, Len thinks the winner will be either Charlie or Amy.???  Knock me over with a feather.  I guess Len sees Charlie as being on the Donald Driver trajectory, not the Ralph Macchio path.

I love Charlie so I'd be thrilled to see him win, but Amy winning would really shock me. Especially with how popular Meryl/Maks and Danica/Val are. Is Golden Boy being set up for another win??

[kitcloudkicker]

Conspiracy theories make me tired. Do producers have a vested interest in setting up storylines that they think will create the best show? Of course. It's a tv show. Are they dumb enough to put all their chips in one basket and cling to it no matter what? No, it'd be incredibly boneheaded to not be flexible enough to see how things play out. "Candace finds her confidence" is a great tv story that I think is going to give her some staying power. Charlie on the other hand is fading a bit. At the beginning, sure, Charlie vs Meryl in the final two seemed like the most interesting story, but I'm not so sure now.

I was playing with that bing search thing and searching each contestant and completely forgot about Danica. Whoops. Though it agrees with me she's likely the next to go, she just keeps fading into the background. Hopefully followed by Jamezzzzz. I just can't get interested in that guy.

[Kromm]

I love Charlie so I'd be thrilled to see him win, but Amy winning would really shock me. Especially with how popular Meryl/Maks and Danica/Val are. Is Golden Boy being set up for another win??

Apparently Danica isn't that popular (at least people posting here keep saying so--can't say I know the attribution/proof for it).  

 

As far as Amy goes, if she's physically able to make it through the whole show, she's a clear contender, because she's got the perfect "fan sympathy" story.  Only a major difference in judges' scores might overcome that.

[TeeM]

I agree 100% kitcloudkicker. I think the producers obviously have some storylines in mind when they cast the season and everything starts but I don't think they stick to it no matter what. There is no way they could have predicted Candace's nerves from the day they cast her and it is something that has developed into a compelling storyline over the course of the season so now they are going with it. Has it won her more votes? Probably. I think in some other seasons of this show, Candace would have been a lock for the finals - she has a compelling story now with the nerves, a generally likable personality, some moments of good dancing and is working really, really hard. That usually plays well to the audience at home and has gotten more than one mediocre dancer further along in the competition than some truly great dancers. I just think there are too many better dancers than her this season and so the finals seems unlikely but who knows. 

 

I used to be 100% anti-ringer on this show and always voted for the person who had the combination of story and dancing that appealed to me most. I almost never voted for the contestants who came in with training because I could always find something in the truly untrained celebs that I loved. So for example, even though I am a fan of Maks, I never voted for Mel B because I felt she had an advantage.

 

But I think after so many seasons and watching one hesitant but decent waltz or tango or cha cha cha after another, I now prefer watching really great dancing so I've abandoned my no-ringer voting policy. Actually I hardly vote at all these days, but when I do, it is usually for the dance I enjoyed most so I am often not voting for the same person week after week. This season I've voted at least once for Meryl, Charlie, Candace and Danica. Even with my new vote for the best dancer attitude, Candace has still won me over once or twice! 

[kitcloudkicker]

Apparently Danica isn't that popular (at least people posting here keep saying so--can't say I know the attribution/proof for it).

 

 

The Bing predictor source is here, it's pulling social and search data to attempt to take a popularity poll. How accurate it is, I don't know. It does happen to match my gut feelings though, unless Amy has to pull out. 

[Kromm]

The Bing predictor source is here, it's pulling social and search data to attempt to take a popularity poll. How accurate it is, I don't know. It does happen to match my gut feelings though, unless Amy has to pull out. 

Can't say I have any real understanding how they came to those conclusions.  I mean even in it's day "Dial Idol" had some logic.  But this explanation sounds like nonsense,  Especially since it's based on Bing searches (if it was Google searches I might believe it).

[bearcatfan]

If it wasn't for the team dance scores, I wouldn't be worried for Charlie but that score dropped him down to 5th with only James behind him. James seems much more popular on fb. I usually put much stock in that but since Kristin (sp?) on AfterBuzz mentioned how well it's been as a predictor this season, I'm worried. Charlie has the most complex choreography of any of the celebs, even Meryl's is easier, and he's clearly better than most, but because the judges low-balled his paso (even Val tweeted that it was one of the best he's ever seen) and then the team dance, I fear we are in for a shocking elimination. I thought they usually scored the team dances closer than they did this one. I guess I'm used to difficulty being rewarded. This show obviously doesn't do that.

[Barbara Manatee]

I was surprised they scored the team dances so far apart too, especially since there was that twist that only one team performed live. It would make more sense to keep them within a point or two, so they have some impact but aren't a huge factor in who goes home.

 

I've seen a lot of people swearing by the accuracy of facebook or bing, but most of us haven't needed a calculator to predict the eliminations so far. This week is tricky though. I'm worried about Charlie too, because of that damn team score.

[Bitsy]

I think the rule of thumb about team dances after "Derek's team never loses" is "The person going home next will be someone from the losing team".  I don't know if that's ever been proven wrong but I heard Derek say it.  That leaves James and Charlie, and it looks like Charlie is in worse shape than James right now.

[Dots And Stripes]

The teams were only scored 4 points apart, that's an average 1 point per judge. Not a huge gap. Charlie is only 1 point behind Danica and 3 points behind Candace. He'd be ahead of both of them if not for the team dance, but percentage-wise, he doesn't have much ground to make up with either of them. I dislike that better dancers can end up at the bottom of the leader board after team dances, but that's how it's always been. As it is, the scores are almost tied and are almost irrelevant when you look at the percentages.

 

Someone from the winning team has gone home last least twice that I can think of off the top of my head, S10 (Pam Anderson) S14 (Jaleel White). Maybe All Stars too but that season was screwed up all around.

 

Charlie is vulnerable after this episode, but I wouldn't count him out yet.