S33: Previews and Speculation

[Wandering Snark]

11 minutes ago, LanceM said:

What to look forward to next week is Probst going how amazing it is that (33 year old) Gen-X'er Ken is getting along so well with (28 year old) Millennial Zeke.

Or we'll get one of these original tribe +1 "swaps" with one GenX 'swapped' to the Millenials and it will be all we hear Probst talk of until the merge. "And here's ____ stuck on a tribe with all Millenials!!" Oh the horror. Heh.

[KimberStormer]

Well, I feel like I was right last week when I thought that the game was all busted open by Paul's ouster, and there are many small factions rather than alliances with the majority.  More right than I even knew, because I thought Jessica, Lucy, and Sunday would be a faction, but they shattered into mere individuals instead.  And I wouldn't be surprised if Ken considers himself a Tribe Of One now as well.

So now it will be very interesting, this swap!  Very, very interesting.  We have: the "Cool Kids" Figgy, Taylor, Jay, Michelle, and more weakly connected to them Will and Hannah and Michaela; Zeke and Adam; Bret and Chris; David and Jessica and presumably CeCe; Ken maybe with them or maybe flying solo; and poor Sunday left hanging in the wind by a crazy tribe that won't stand still for five seconds, even though she has always been part of the majority.  And so many interweavings between these: Hannah wanting to get back being friends with Zeke and Adam, Figgy and Michaela maybe fighting, people wanting to break up the so-called "power couple" Taylor and Figgy, David and Taylor's 5-second 'alliance', and on and on.  I feel like however the tribes shake out it should be interesting new dynamics.  Exciting!

[laurakaye]

Oh please please please please let FigTayls get separated next week!  Please!!

[thehepburn]

1 hour ago, laurakaye said:

Oh please please please please let FigTayls get separated next week!  Please!!

Socialmedia calls them #faylor.

[LadyChatts]

Press pics and Jeff's teaser for next week:

http://insidesurvivor.com/survivor-millennials-vs-gen-x-episode-6-press-photos-22711

http://www.ew.com/article/2016/10/20/survivor-jeff-probst-millennials-vs-gen-x-episode-5

Quote

We have a Survivor classic next week with the blindfolded challenge. What can you tease up for the next episode?
Ah, that challenge is so fun, and during the challenge, we experience yet another Survivor first!

[LadyChatts]

New preview

[hincandenza]

On 10/20/2016 at 11:47 AM, LadyChatts said:

Press pics and Jeff's teaser for next week:

http://insidesurvivor.com/survivor-millennials-vs-gen-x-episode-6-press-photos-22711

http://www.ew.com/article/2016/10/20/survivor-jeff-probst-millennials-vs-gen-x-episode-5

I think the blindfold challenge is the one that drives me the battiest, because it's a long-time staple that to this day no one seems to know how to play.  It's really simple: your caller should be a) reasonably organized in their thinking, and b) distinctively loud. I'll never understand why teams keep putting someone in the crow's nest who is either soft-voiced, or can't belt.  I just recently finished watching S31 and it was painful during that season when Keith kept saying he literally couldn't hear Kass.  It's not a strength challenge; get your big chested baritone guy up there who can boom out like a drill sergeant at 90 decibels, and cut through the noise.

And I'm doubly confused how the callers have some kind of mental defect where they perpetually can't understand that shouting out "Go over there" or "walk forward" is a recipe for disaster and injuries.  Maybe I'm showing myself as a Gen-Xer, but I remember in school we had this game in computer class called LOGO with a little drawing turtle, which let you put in simple commands like "LT 90" to rotate 90 degrees left and "FD 10" to move ten pixels forward.  How on earth do I never see a single caller use this kind of thinking, and during the "minute to strategize" say to their team that they'll call out a limited set of commands, such as "FREEZE" (everyone stops in place), "BOB 5" (Bob takes 5 steps forward then stops),  "BOB 2 o'clock" (rotate in place to face the imaginary 2 on the clock).  And if you're blindfolded, and have completed your 5 steps you then STOP- you don't go rambling on forward until you run yourself right into a leg or head injury, you idiots.

Not to mention how these people all walk like zombies, arms straight out in front, when it would be so much smarter to walk with a slight crouch and your hands hanging loosely about a half foot in front of you, as a buffer so that you don't keep walking crotch-first into a wooden pole... like what happens in 33 seasons in a row and counting.  I just can't with the stupid sometimes. :)

[cherrypj]

Great points, @hincandenza, but it's super hard to walk in a straight line when you've got a blindfold on. Check this post out (includes a video): Dire Straights. So having a well-designed strategy with a loud caller might reduce your chances of fumbling around, but won't eliminate it entirely.

[hincandenza]

On 10/23/2016 at 6:47 AM, cherrypj said:

Great points, @hincandenza, but it's super hard to walk in a straight line when you've got a blindfold on. Check this post out (includes a video): Dire Straights. So having a well-designed strategy with a loud caller might reduce your chances of fumbling around, but won't eliminate it entirely.

That's a pretty good point, I didn't know that- although I still say that makes the caller having a clear set of instructions so critical. If you're smart about it you basically can rotate through your 3-4 people in order, "person 1, 5 steps, person 2 - 10 steps, person 3, 6 steps; person 1, 11'oclock, person 2, 3 o'clock, person 3 5 steps (because they're on track)" over and over, steadily moving them to each successive object to be retrieved.  I also think in these types of "retrieve multiple items/puzzle pieces" challenges, you always go for the furthest item first. Then again, it's very easy for me to say all of this when I'm not near-starving, cold, wet, and tired. :)

For all the crap they took- deservedly- I did like how the Brains tribe in season 28 with Spencer and Tasha spent their downtime practicing different teamwork maneuvers.  I wonder how often that actually happens and we just don't see it.  I'm perplexed at how little people seem to do around camp, from making fire, to building/improving shelters, to practicing for potential challenges and team work.  Not that everyone has to be like the guy from the "Primitive Technology" youtube channel, but at this point it's embarrassing that everyone on this show hasn't mastered things like basic fire-making, lean-to shelter building, and the like.

[KimberStormer]

My guess would be they like a range of that kind of thing.  As always, they cast for drama.  Having a whole cast of wilderness experts would limit opportunities for conflict and the little triumphs of people like Cirie, learning how to make fire, how to catch fish, etc.  A whole cast of incompetents would probably be boring relentless misery, but a whole cast of wilderness experts would be sort of like a whole cast of gamebots.  Once they've got a couple of people who know how to make fire, build a shelter, etc, I imagine they actively look for people (like David) who answer questions like "How do you like camping" with "I've never done it before and the concept is terrifying" because they want to get that potential for conflict.  And after all, for a pretty long time (probably not anymore though) being a provider or whatever could buy you a few more tribals, which it surely wouldn't if everyone could provide for themselves.

More on topic, I'm super-scared again as we get closer to tomorrow's episode!  Michelle still in terrible danger!  Even if Chris decides to go with the Millenial pair, David will use his idol and sayonara, Michelle.  Please let someone else lose the challenge -- maybe make it a puzzle, since Michelle is apparently killer at puzzles and David maybe not bad either...

[Lamb18]

So . . . my comment last week isn't so off after all. I said after the new tribes were formed that I thought David and Zeke would have become instant soul mates (or something like that). And now it looks like it might be true.

[KimberStormer]

Angkor Tribe only lasted two tribals, right?  I wonder if there will be another swap next ep.

[LadyChatts]

45 minutes ago, KimberStormer said:

Angkor Tribe only lasted two tribals, right?  I wonder if there will be another swap next ep.

There were 3 TC from when the first and second swap happened (Angkor went to 2/3 of them).

I had wondered if perhaps there was more to Adam's move tonight than just finding other allies.  Maybe, if the purple tribe loses next week, he uses his idol to save Taylor, since Jessica/Ken may still assume he's with them.  He got rid of Figgy, whom he might of deemed as a bigger threat to his survival out there than Taylor.  And he may figure that Taylor would be grateful to him for saving him if they went to TC next week.  That would get rid of a threat and keep the Millennials numbers up (though Zeke seems to have David and Chris on a line, so they might as well be honorary Millennials at this point).  Of course, Jay may sense his bro is in danger of going home, and have his tribe throw the challenge since the Millennials outnumber GenX on there.  Wasn't much to go on by the previews.  Really ready for the merge to happen.

Edited October 27, 2016 by LadyChatts

[KimberStormer]

Oh right, Monica, how could I forget!  I went straight from Varner to Woo in my mind.

[Lantern7]

I welcome the potential beta-male alliance between Zeke and David. I'm concerned that Zeke is still beholden to the Sooner guy. At least I can identify those two from the field, which is a plus.

[thehepburn]

new preview

[Trick Question]

So we're merging at 13, which makes me think we're getting one more elimination before we hit the jury.  We're left with seven original millennials (Taylor, Hannah, Jay, Will, Adam, Michelle, Zeke) and six Gen-Xers (Sunday, Bret, Chris, David, Ken, Jessica).

Jay/Will are a clear pair, and it seems like they would try to get Michelle and Taylor back into their alliance to make it a solid four.  They probably have a good chance of getting Hannah back in despite the Michaela blindside, via Michelle coaxing her again (we'll call them alliance #1).

Adam/Ken/Jessica seem like a trio, though it's really Ken/Jessica and then Adam as the convenient third who could possibly be replaced.  K/J could use Adam as the bridge to Zeke and potentially joining up for a Ken/Jessica/Adam/Zeke/David alliance (alliance #2).

Chris, Bret and Sunday are sort of the wild cards here.  I could certainly see the three of them joining right back up together and essentially acting as swing votes between the two groups.  Chris obviously has a good tie with Zeke and probably David, while Sunday/Bret may feel like they can work with Jay/Will for at least one more vote.  If this trio plays it smart, they could potentially leverage this swing status pretty deep into the game --- they don't have any idols as protection, though I feel Chris will be a big threat to win an immunity or several.

Between the tribe swap into three, the fractures in the original tribes and all of the idols still in play, I really have no idea what's going to happen next week.  There's a very good possibility that all three HIIs get played at the next tribal council, which would make things totally chaotic.

[LadyChatts]

I don't know that Bret and Sunday will want to work with Jay/Will going forward at the merge.  They had no choice tonight but to side with them.  It'd be in their best interest to try and team back up with the GenXers.  The problem is, I don't know if David, Ken, or Jessica have any interest in bringing the original tribe together, since they were already fractured before the swap.  David and Zeke seem to be tight.  I think along with Adam and Chris, if they can get Ken and Jessica, there's one power alliance.  No offense to Hannah or Michelle, but siding with Jay/Taylor/Will isn't going to be good for their long term game.  Taylor and maybe Will are beatable in the end, but I don't know about Jay.  I also believe Jay will have the bros first attitude, and get rid of those two girls as soon as he can.  I also don't believe Taylor or Will will want to go end game with Michelle or Hannah.  I'd like to see Hannah grow a back bone and stop being wishy washy, but truthfully, getting voted out of this game might be the best thing for her.  I kind of worry about her health.  I continue to say/believe Sunday will go where the numbers are.  I believe Chris/Bret may be tight again.  So really, Adam, Zeke, David, Ken, and Jessica are the ones I'm most curious about as to where they align.  At the very least, hopefully things finally get interesting.

I think marketing yourself openly as a swing vote if only going to get your torch snuffed sooner rather than later.

Edited November 3, 2016 by LadyChatts

[peachmangosteen]

I feel like there's a lot of small factions left and no big, or even medium sized, true alliances out there currently.

There's Jay/Will, whom I think are a fairly solid duo. But you also have Jay/Michelle, who may hook back up but I could also see Michelle dropping Jay. And there's Jay/Taylor. Then you have Adam/Zeke, who seemed close pre-tribe swap but have since gone on to build other bonds. Which brings us to Zeke/Chris and Zeke/David. Plus you have Hannah, who could easily go back to Adam/Zeke. But then there's the possible Michelle/Hannah alliance to consider. But there's also Chris/Brett, whom were aligned pre-tribe swap and Sunday might also continue to be with them. Then there's Ken/Jessica, whom might also bring along Adam or even Taylor.

There are just so many different ways it could go. It's exciting!

[LadyChatts]

http://insidesurvivor.com/survivor-millennials-vs-gen-x-episode-8-press-photos-23232

http://www.ew.com/article/2016/11/03/survivor-jeff-probst-millennials-vs-gen-x-episode-7-blindside

Quote

Okay, merge time next week! Tease us up, sir.
The merge never fails to flip the game because now you’re in the individual portion and every single player can see Day 39. Existing alliances now become much more difficult to trust because you are no longer aligned, you are adversaries. This is why big moves are often made and old alliances are often burned. And ultimately this is why Survivor is so difficult to play and so fun to watch!

Press photos for next week and Jeff's teaser.

[NutMeg]

Peachmangosteen, I totally agree with your assessment.

Some other random ideas:

- Unless Chris is coopted by a large enough number of people, he could be the typical immunity threat tat becomes the first target after the merge...

- ...unless for once strategic threats are targeted first, in which case it could go many ways, depending on who is a threat to whom and who can gather the most votes against said thread

- Hannah might be fine for a while now

I like that all alliances, at least core alliances, are small, and bigger alliances fluid. Maybe the days of Pagonging are really over? I'd like it, even if it's not necessarily better game play, but definitely better TV. But I'm also a big hypocrite, because I loved it when Casaya got rid of all of Terry's sheep :)

The fact that we only saw Brett and Sunday ready to vote for each other means none of them wins, but all the rest are still fair game, and this is very exciting because many scenarios remain possible - that's a very welcome change. No character is monopolising the editing, and a lot of them are very interesting. Plus all these duos or potential duos! I cannot wait :)

[LadyChatts]

http://www.ew.com/article/2016/11/10/survivor-jeff-probst-millennials-vs-gen-x-episode-8

Quote

Tease us up for next week, my man!
Now that we’re into the individual portion of the game, people start to play more aggressively. That can lead to great moves or massive blunders. And information, as always, is king.

http://insidesurvivor.com/survivor-millennials-vs-gen-x-episode-9-press-photos-23479

Press photos and Jeff's teaser.

[LadyChatts]

Preview for next week (ep is titled "Still Throwing Punches").

[peachmangosteen]

I was rolling over the promo for next week. The "Did you hear that Will told Zeke that Jay has an idol?" game of telephone was hilarious. I can't wait to see it play out.

[LadyChatts]

Quote

Finally, hook us up with a tease for next week, Mr. Probst.
As close to a perfect episode as we get. Great stories, great structure, rivalries, and tons of emotion. This season is seriously cranking into high gear. It does not let down. And remember we have BACK-TO-BACK EPISODES next week and they both kick ass. So make sure DVR is set if you can’t watch live.

Jeff's teaser for next week.  This is the most excited he's sounded all season for an episode.  http://www.ew.com/article/2016/11/17/survivor-jeff-probst-millennials-vs-gen-x-reward-steal

I wonder if it'll come back to bite Will that he sold Jay out over his idol.

[LadyChatts]

[peachmangosteen]

2 hours ago, fishcakes said:

Last night's TC was Day 33. There are only 6 more days but there are 8 people left.

I'm wondering if the Legacy Advantage might have something to do with voting out 2 people in one TC or something. Because it really doesn't feel like there's enough time left for them to boot just one person per TC.

Do we have any idea when the finale is airing?

[fishcakes]

I can't find a finale date online, although someone in the episode thread said it usually ends the week before Christmas. If that's right, that would be two more regular episodes and the finale. Since the finale usually has three TCs, and I assume this year we're having an F3 and not an F2, then one of the TCs will have to be a double elimination. If it's an F2, then two of them will.

17 minutes ago, peachmangosteen said:

I'm wondering if the Legacy Advantage might have something to do with voting out 2 people in one TC or something.

I think this is probably right. And since it's an advantage for one person, I'm wondering if it's not that they'll have a second person voted out, but that whoever has the advantage can just choose someone to go. That would be a terrible advantage because I assume it can't be declined or it would screw up the timeline of the season and it guarantees that the person who holds the advantage is putting someone on the jury who will never vote for him at FTC. It seems ... so unlikely? Then again, the "steal a reward" advantage is also not an advantage, so maybe that's one of the themes this season.

[JaggedLilPill]

I'm wondering if we'll be getting an auction at all. And if so, will there be another advantage? Ken has the Legacy Advantage. Jay now has the reward advantage thanks to Adam. Is there possibly another one out there like for the final immunity challenge? 

I agree that I think Ken's Legacy Advantage will probably allow him to choose a second person to go after the first tribal council is done. 

[Lamb18]

I wonder if the Advantage is a free pass to the final three. He learns what it is on day 36, doesn't he? Wouldn't that be the last tribal before the final one?

[LadyChatts]

If that's what the legacy advantage is, they need to quit doing advantages.  It's just the double vote advantage with a new name.  That could really screw Ken over.

[JaggedLilPill]

1 hour ago, Lamb18 said:

I wonder if the Advantage is a free pass to the final three. He learns what it is on day 36, doesn't he? Wouldn't that be the last tribal before the final one?

I think if we were down to five, it would be, but they're at eight and we're already at day 33. 

 

1 hour ago, LadyChatts said:

If that's what the legacy advantage is, they need to quit doing advantages.  It's just the double vote advantage with a new name.  That could really screw Ken over.

Yep. It's the season of non-advantage advantages.

Or maybe it's just that Ken's automatically safe in the second tribal council? That makes more sense because if it were up to him to vote someone out, that's pretty much a guaranteed "Fuck you, Ken. You're not getting my vote now!"

ETA: 

Of course that begs the question what if the person with immunity has the Legacy Advantage? Do they pass it on to someone else? Or is immunity from the first TC null and void at the second?

Edited December 1, 2016 by JaggedLilPill

[LadyChatts]

http://www.ew.com/article/2016/12/01/survivor-jeff-probst-loved-ones-millennials-vs-gen-x

According to Jeffs teaser, we are losing two people next week.  I thought someone posted the finale was December 14th (now I can't find it).

[piequinn35]

The finale is on Dec 14, my birthday ;)

[piequinn35]

So Jeff said double boot on Dec 7, I am guessing the finale will have a double boot and the legacy advantage will have the third boot? 

[LadyChatts]

5 minutes ago, piequinn35 said:

The finale is on Dec 14, my birthday ;)

Okay, I knew I wasn't crazy!  So that timeline would work if two people go home next week.

[zscore]

S31 finale started with F6 so it's possible they squeeze 3 TCs and FTC in the finale. As for the legacy advantage, I'm guessing that Day 36 was going to be the F6 TC but everything got pushed back because the hurricane evacuation.

[JaggedLilPill]

Happy early bday @piequinn35! It's my nephew's birthday as well :)

I keep forgetting about Will LOL. For some reason I thought we were at seven, not eight. Sorry, Will. Guess your big play didn't stick in my mind.

So, a double boot next week will leave us at 6 people left. But that still means two more tribal councils and then the final. So three sounds about right.

[peachmangosteen]

I hope the Legacy Advantage isn't just the 'remove a juror' thing that Michelle won last season like some speculated in the beginning of the season. 

[Lamima]

Anyone worried Adam gets pulled to go home to his mom next week?

Nevermind...in that article, upthread, Probst says this about next week: but I love having Two Tribals and two votes.

Thank goodness!

Edited December 2, 2016 by Lamima

[LadyChatts]

2 hours ago, peachmangosteen said:

I hope the Legacy Advantage isn't just the 'remove a juror' thing that Michelle won last season like some speculated in the beginning of the season. 

Not that I believe Ken would remove Jess, but I would find it humorous if a person willed the advantage to someone, and that person ended up kicking them off the jury.

considering it happens on day 36 though, I feel like it's going to be something else.

[peachmangosteen]

29 minutes ago, Winston9-DT3 said:

Jury tampering could be a possibility.  That's a helluva good advantage.  

I don't want it to be the jury thing again though because they just did it last season and it feels like the LA is something new. Also, I feel like removing a juror's vote really is too big of an advantage to get just by happening to be the person lucky enough to stumble upon it. Although with it being willed from person to person it makes it harder to get. 

[JaggedLilPill]

I checked out of last season pretty early on. What jury advantage did someone get? 

[LadyChatts]

35 minutes ago, JaggedLilPill said:

I checked out of last season pretty early on. What jury advantage did someone get? 

Michele, who won the last IC, was allowed to remove someone from the jury so they couldn't vote in the end.

[ljenkins782]

18 minutes ago, LadyChatts said:

Michele, who won the last IC, was allowed to remove someone from the jury so they couldn't vote in the end.

And she did make a good choice, removing not only a guaranteed vote for Aubry, but also a juror who intended to make a strong case for Aubry and against Michelle. Who knows if he would have swayed anyone though and Aubry lost 2-5 to Michelle, so that advantage may not have mattered. 

As for the Legacy Advantage, there's been very, very little focus on it, so I wonder if it ends up being another dud. We saw Jessica find it, she mentioned it once or twice more before it went to Ken and that's about it. Not that there's much they could say since no one, including the holder, knows what it is and only 2 people even know it exists, but I still wonder if the relative silence means anything.

I'm very curious to see what it is though. That would have bugged the shit out of me if I were Jessica, it'd be like having your Christmas present wrapped under the tree in front of you for 30 days with no way to know what it is. 

[JaggedLilPill]

24 minutes ago, LadyChatts said:

Michele, who won the last IC, was allowed to remove someone from the jury so they couldn't vote in the end.

Thanks!

Yeah, I doubt they'd do that again with back-to-back seasons. 

Me thinks it'll probably end up being something stupid and/or similar to the reward stealing advantage where, in the end, it really isn't a true advantage. 

[peachmangosteen]

3 hours ago, JaggedLilPill said:

Me thinks it'll probably end up being something stupid and/or similar to the reward stealing advantage where, in the end, it really isn't a true advantage. 

 

3 hours ago, ljenkins782 said:

As for the Legacy Advantage, there's been very, very little focus on it, so I wonder if it ends up being another dud.

I hope you're both wrong. That would be so anti-climatic lol. But I think you're both on to something. I suspect the LA will end up being pointless.

Edited December 2, 2016 by peachmangosteen

[piequinn35]

Is this the first time that there will be 6 at the start of the finale?

[Trick Question]

The last few finales have included a reward challenge and two immunity challenges, so they really could start this finale with six people if they just run three immunities.

[thehepburn]

5 hours ago, piequinn35 said:

Is this the first time that there will be 6 at the start of the finale?

No, S31.