Season 17 Live Feed Discussion: Watch People Sleep All Day!

[Nashville]

 

IMO, a person has lost their ability to manipulate once every single person in the house knows what they're doing. Take that away from Vanessa and she has nothing. She has no one in the house who has her back, there's no one who trusts a single thing that comes out of her mouth, and she hasn't won a comp in almost a month.

 

 

I think the point is Vanessa doesn't really have anyone who trusts her. You can get by without a solid alliance but when your credibility is shot with everyone in the house your game is pretty much done. You cease being a great manipulator when no one buys what you're saying. See Audrey. To use a poker analogy Vanessa is just about drawing dead at this point.

 

In BB, you don't have to be able to trust the person to make them useful to your game - you just have to be able to trust their actions. I wouldn't trust V on a personal level any further than I could chuck a Cadillac - but I'd trust 1,000%™ that V's actions in the game are directed to what V perceives as the betterment of her game position, and try to use that to my advantage.

Which now evolves into a couple of different questions:

• What does V consider a good game move for her?
• What can I do to nudge V into a course of action which also benefits me?

in this context, I can't fault the Austwins' keeping V in the game - not so long as V's histrionics keeps everybody else in the House distracted from the 800-lb. 3-person alliance gorilla in the room.

[Cutty]

Can you imagine a Meg/Julia F2? Oy. 

 

I'm kind of resigned to the fact that we're going to get an unsatisfying winner. Vanessa is in too big of a hole to dig herself out. James is a sitting duck. JMac is a terrible gamer. Julia and Meg - LOL. I doubt a returning juror could ever win. That basically leaves us with Liz, Austin and Steve. So gross. I guess I'd rather see the ants win than Liz or Austin, so Steve? I'm so confused.

Edited August 20, 2015 by Cutty

[Way Wes Jr]

This house is big on mob mentality. We've seen it all season.  We see it every season.

Fixed that for you.

[Cutty]

 

  In BB, you don't have to be able to trust the person to make them useful to your game - you just have to be able to trust their actions. I wouldn't trust V on a personal level any further than I could chuck a Cadillac - but I'd trust 1,000%™ that V's actions in the game are directed to what V perceives as the betterment of her game position, and try to use that to my advantage.

Which now evolves into a couple of different questions:

• What does V consider a good game move for her?
• What can I do to nudge V into a course of action which also benefits me?

in this context, I can't fault the Austwins' keeping V in the game - not so long as V's histrionics keeps everybody else in the House distracted from the 800-lb. 3-person alliance gorilla in the room.

 

 

Given the information she has now the best move for Vanessa would be getting out James or Meg. With the assumption that a juror is returning next week you can't risk letting Jackie get back in with Meg/James still intact. I actually think booting Meg would be smart. Vanessa voiced this concern weeks ago, but basically keeping a goat in for too long is dangerous because the closer it gets to the end you are more likely to be booted before them. (Unless you're an idiot like Cody.) Keeping a big target like James in is probably better. He can win a physical comp but he's pretty useless in anything mental. 

 

For Julia and Steve keeping Vanessa in the game is definitely better for them. I can't believe how quickly Steve jumped ship, to useless Johnny Mac of all people. All so he could be a fifth wheel with the Austwins. That's why I have a hard time respecting Steve's gameplay. He doesn't really seem to have a coherent endgame in mind. I know he wants a F2 with Meg but that ship has sailed. 

Edited August 20, 2015 by Cutty

[Ceeg]

Can you imagine a Meg/Julia F2? Oy. 

 

I'm kind of resigned to the fact that we're going to get an unsatisfying winner. Vanessa is in too big of a hole to dig herself out. James is a sitting duck. JMac is a terrible gamer. Julia and Meg - LOL. I doubt a returning juror could ever win. That basically leaves us with Liz, Austin and Steve. So gross. I guess I'd rather see the ants win than Liz or Austin, so Steve? I'm so confused.

I don't know, I think Julia is in a much better position than Austin or Liz. Austin and Liz are both much bigger targets than her, and once people finally buy a clue (probably after Vanessa is evicted) they're going to hopefully go after Austin or Liz. If Julia is on the block against either Austin or Liz, Julia will stay. The only way she'd go out ahead of them is if Austin won veto while not being nominated, and took Liz off. Now, if Julia makes it to the end with either of them, then obviously she wouldn't win. But, while I think one of the final 2 will be one of the Austwins, I'm not totally sure both of the Final 2 will be.

At this point, I wish this week would be a DE too, because unless Julia (she won't), Steve (he won't), or Vanessa wins HOH, it's going to be a week of Vanessa! Must! Go! all over again, and if that's going to happen, I'd rather they just speed it up and get it over with. And then move on to bringing back a juror who will hopefully evict one of the Austwins.

[TheRealT]

The funny thing is Austin and the twins are playing the exact same game that got Vanessa in trouble. Make deals with everyone in the house to ensure your own safety the following week, pitting two different groups against each other. If Johnny Mac, Meg and James weren't so clueless they could compare notes and realize they have the exact same deal with Austin and the twins.

I haven't been following the feeds closely this week, so am I missing something about why everyone wants to be F5 with the Austwins? How does that seem like a good idea besides making things "easy" until then? James knows that Meg can't win anything, so what does he think will happen at F5 if he doesn't win HOH/Veto? Who does he think is the obvious first boot between him and Meg at any time? Has he even tried to get something together with JMac, Steve, or even Vanessa? Wasn't JMac interested in working with James at one point? I saw him pitch that idea to Shelli. What happened with that? What does he think will happen at F5 with the Austwins vs. him and Steve? Why would he want to take out Meg before any of the Austwins? It's all so confusing and the only answer I can glean from what I've seen/read is that everyone likes hanging out with the Austwins more than the other group. Speaking of which, I saw a conversation between Vanessa and Steve in which she lamented the fact that the game is not as strategic as it was before and is now more social. She knows that that's not her strong suit (or Steve's).

 

 

This is actually disgusting and this is why Austin needs to go next week. If he wins HOH, I'm gonna be so mad. I just need someone who will target him, I really really do. Julia may be the only person who would do it.

The updates are generally super biased. Sometimes I see what happened and read a spun interpretation of it later.

I watched it (~2:15AM HT) and it was disgusting and pathetic and awkward, to say the least. Austin wasn't really threatening to torture her and the actual remark about "torture" was that it was like torture for her when he snuggled her/kissed her ear. She tried to laugh it off, but explicitly told him several times that she didn't want him to cuddle her or kiss her ear while physically recoiling and making distressed noises. Nevertheless, he persisted in touching her and became more forceful/restraining. I don't think he was on the verge of raping her or anything like that, but, to me, it was disgusting behavior on his part. Suggesting that someone force herself to tolerate physical contact that she has told you she doesn't like or want is gross. In a different context, I would think that Liz should be more clear with him about her feelings and not sleep in the same bed with him, etc., but I can understand why she's not doing that in this context. I think Austin also understands that she is limited in her ability to resist his advances because of the game and he takes advantage of that. I think he thinks/hopes that she really likes him, but, at minimum, he is well aware that she does not want to take things as far as he does physically. Rather than respect that, he pushes boundaries and tries to cajole, pressure, and convince her to do what he wants.

[MV007]

 I can't believe how quickly Steve jumped ship, to useless Johnny Mac of all people. All so he could be a fifth wheel with the Austwins. That's why I have a hard time respecting Steve's gameplay. He doesn't really seem to have a coherent endgame in mind. I know he wants a F2 with Meg but that ship has sailed. 

 

Come on now.  He's a fourth wheel.  Show some respect.

[Ceeg]

I haven't been following the feeds closely this week, so am I missing something about why everyone wants to be F5 with the Austwins? How does that seem like a good idea besides making things "easy" until then? James knows that Meg can't win anything, so what does he think will happen at F5 if he doesn't win HOH/Veto? Who does he think is the obvious first boot between him and Meg at any time? Has he even tried to get something together with JMac, Steve, or even Vanessa? Wasn't JMac interested in working with James at one point? I saw him pitch that idea to Shelli. What happened with that? What does he think will happen at F5 with the Austwins vs. him and Steve? Why would he want to take out Meg before any of the Austwins? It's all so confusing and the only answer I can glean from what I've seen/read is that everyone likes hanging out with the Austwins more than the other group. 

I think that everyone who has a Final 4/5 deal with the Austwins think that once it gets to that point, it's every man for himself, and there will be no ill will. While, if someone makes the move NOW, then the next week, the other 2 of the Austwins left will be gunning straight at them. Basically, they're scared of a retaliation. I guess I understand what they're hoping will happen, in theory, but it's just stupid because their only chance of getting beyond Final 4/5 is to win HOH or Veto.

What should really happen is that next week, if Julia or Austin don't win HOH, they should call a momentary truce and construct a Dark Moon Alliance Part Two, to guarantee safety to everyone in the room (Vanessa, James, Meg, John, Steve) in order to go after the Austwins. But, these people are hella dumb, so the odds of that happening are slim to none.

Edited August 20, 2015 by Ceeg

[Snaporaz]

I think it's kind of hysterical that Austin believes he is being portrayed as the Romantic Hero of the season, when the show is actually portraying him as disgusting and gross. While I'm grateful yesterday's broadcast didn't give us close-ups of the tuna stuck in his beard, they did regale us with footage of him really going to town with that Kleenex. Even his comic gave jabs about his odor, and who knows what Zingbot will say? Austin is going to be all kinds of crushed when he watches the show.

[mooses]

Given the information she has now the best move for Vanessa would be getting out James or Meg. With the assumption that a juror is returning next week you can't risk letting Jackie get back in with Meg/James still intact. I actually think booting Meg would be smart. Vanessa voiced this concern weeks ago, but basically keeping a goat in for too long is dangerous because the closer it gets to the end you are more likely to be booted before them. (Unless you're an idiot like Cody.) Keeping a big target like James in is probably better. He can win a physical comp but he's pretty useless in anything mental.

For Julia and Steve keeping Vanessa in the game is definitely better for them. I can't believe how quickly Steve jumped ship, to useless Johnny Mac of all people. All so he could be a fifth wheel with the Austwins. That's why I have a hard time respecting Steve's gameplay. He doesn't really seem to have a coherent endgame in mind. I know he wants a F2 with Meg but that ship has sailed.

Truth. And Meg will last not just because she's a goat, but she's fun, which is what the twins are focused on right now. And I think the further the game goes, the more willing James will be to get blood on his hands and boot one of the Austwins, whereas Meg seems like she'd keep her friends over strategy.

As for Steve - I still think he thinks he has so much more influence than he does. His talks with John are kinda pointless because it usually boils down to them just doing whatever the HOH wants. I'm betting he thinks he can spin it so he seemed like the helpless puppet who was actually pulling the strings, but I'm not buying it.

ETA: While I don't fault John for wanting Vanessa out at this point, it is clear from his conversations with Steve he is clueless otherwise. I mean, even his Vanessa hate started with Clelli revenge. The show makes him look like he's much more in the middle of the action, though.

Edited August 20, 2015 by mooses

[Cutty]

JMac and Steve were talking the other night about making F5 with Austin and the twins. Steve said something like he would be fine with it to which JMac replied that they can commit to it but it will never happen because they [Austin and twins] will be broken up by then. Famous last words. 

Edited August 20, 2015 by Cutty

[mooses]

I think that everyone who has a Final 4/5 deal with the Austwins think that once it gets to that point, it's every man for himself, and there will be no ill will. While, if someone makes the move NOW, then the next week, the other 2 of the Austwins left will be gunning straight at them. Basically, they're scared of a retaliation. I guess I understand what they're hoping will happen, in theory, but it's just stupid because their only chance of getting beyond Final 4/5 is to win HOH or Veto.

Yeah, everyone wants to be good with everyone, which is easy with Vanessa around. I don't really remember a season where so many of the HGs wanted to play

that same strategy though.

I think Vanessa played by making the best moves for numbers, and hoped the power would go her way - much more of a gamble that didn't work out.

Edited August 20, 2015 by mooses

[MV007]

I think that everyone who has a Final 4/5 deal with the Austwins think that once it gets to that point, it's every man for himself, and there will be no ill will. While, if someone makes the move NOW, then the next week, the other 2 of the Austwins left will be gunning straight at them. Basically, they're scared of a retaliation. I guess I understand what they're hoping will happen, in theory, but it's just stupid because their only chance of getting beyond Final 4/5 is to win HOH or Veto.

 

 

This makes a certain logical sense.  My problem believing that that is the thinking behind these idiots minds is that they haven't voiced this as their reasoning.  From what I can gather, they just seem to think the Austwins are trustworthy and want to work with them.  Please correct me if I'm wrong but I haven't seen anything where someone has said "hey if we take out Liz then Austin and Julia will come after us".  Maybe it doesn't need to be said because its so obvious but my feeling is that these people are working with the Austwins out of loyalty or friendship and not fear.

[TheRealT]

I think that everyone who has a Final 4/5 deal with the Austwins think that once it gets to that point, it's every man for himself, and there will be no ill will. While, if someone makes the move NOW, then the next week, the other 2 of the Austwins left will be gunning straight at them. Basically, they're scared of a retaliation. I guess I understand what they're hoping will happen, in theory, but it's just stupid because their only chance of getting beyond Final 4/5 is to win HOH or Veto.

The fear of retaliation/not wanting to pull the trigger thing makes sense from Vanessa's perspective, but I think she's the only one who's (secretly) thinking about booting one of the Austwins. It doesn't really makes sense for James/Meg/JMac/Steve, though. I could understand if they were telling the Austwins they wanted a F5 while secretly scheming to team up with the each other, but it seems like JMac/Steve and James/Meg sincerely want to target Vanessa and each other before the Austwins, ending up in F5/4/3/2 with whatever's left of the Austwins. I guess if everything went perfectly for any individual in the non-Austwins s/he'd end up in F2 with another non-Austwin and get all 3 Austwin votes for having stayed true to their F5 and only going after the Austwins when there was no other option. Is that what they're thinking? They must realize that if they're in F2 with an Austwin s/he will have 2 automatic votes, right?

 

With that being said, I don't think the Austwins are really an unbreakable trio in all scenarios. I don't think the twins will ever turn on each other, but I could see them voting differently if they're both in jury. If Liz were gone, I wouldn't necessarily expect Julia and Austin to be tight except that now the numbers are getting so low that they might not have any other options. I think the twins would choose each other over Austin even if it were more advantageous gamewise to keep him. If Liz chose Julia over Austin he might be bitter and vote against either of them in F2. A good gamer could use the boot of any one of the Austwins as an opportunity to pull in one or more of those who are left, but these people aren't good gamers except for Vanessa.

 

Another reason that I think no one is targeting the Austwins is that it takes a lot of stamina to keep up with being hypervigilant and strategic at all times and I think most of them are tired at this point and want to latch onto some alliance or plan that will enable them to just ride things out for at least a little while and, ideally, all the way to the end. Even Vanessa is burnt out. I think she could get a second wind if she won HOH and managed to use it to rebuild her game rather than fuck it up even worse, but the likelihood of that happening is very low.

[Ceeg]

This makes a certain logical sense.  My problem believing that that is the thinking behind these idiots minds is that they haven't voiced this as their reasoning.  From what I can gather, they just seem to think the Austwins are trustworthy and want to work with them.  Please correct me if I'm wrong but I haven't seen anything where someone has said "hey if we take out Liz then Austin and Julia will come after us".  Maybe it doesn't need to be said because its so obvious but my feeling is that these people are working with the Austwins out of loyalty or friendship and not fear.

I've definitely heard Meg, James, and Jackie talk about not going after the Austwins out of fear of retaliation and pissing off jurors.

[blixie]

 

you cease being a great manipulator when no one buys what you're saying.

 

I see zero evidence this is true, Vanessa went to the twins and said target Becky and what do you know Becky was targeted and is almost certain to leave. That is NOT a fucking coincidence, and this has been a relatively chill week for her consequently. Plus these assholes retain NOTHING, so "knowing" what Vanessa is about doesn't mean a whole lot, Julia still wants to work with her, and Steve and frankly James would in heartbeat. She hasn't had to game seriously since the DE, this is the real test of if Vanessa has any mist left. I wish she had already started planting the seeds and laying the groundwork for Johnny Mac/James/Meg to target Austwins but I'm sure she's torn between that and winning HoH outright to keep herself safe and possibly just do the deed herself, the more "blown" she feels with the Austwins the more likely she will target Liztin.

 

I do agree that the house is now attributing things to her that she had no hand in including the back door Austin thing (which for the record LIZTIN never ACTUALLY happened, nor would it have IMO), as well as Steve's HoH actions, so while she is not the mastermind they have become convinced of she has definitely engineered of enough of what's happened to be a major target and concern.

[Ceeg]

I see zero evidence this is true, Vanessa went to the twins and said target Becky and what do you know Becky was targeted and is almost certain to leave. That is NOT a fucking coincidence, and this has been a relatively chill week for her consequently. Plus these assholes retain NOTHING, so "knowing" what Vanessa is about doesn't mean a whole lot, Julia still wants to work with her, and Steve and frankly James would in heartbeat. 

Eh, I disagree. Becky was going up no matter what Vanessa did or didn't say. James/Meg had a deal with the Austwins a few weeks ago when James was HOH. Becky has no such deal with them, and neither did John. Steve also wants Becky out hardcore and is close with John and can bring him in, so Becky is the logical choice to go home. 

Also, no way I buy that James would ever work with Vanessa. Just last week he was calling her a c***.  He might try use Vanessa to break up the Austwins, but that would be a very very loose definition of "working together"

[mooses]

From Joker's: James wants to win HoH because he thinks Vanessa could still be controlling Austwins.

This is why Vanessa is so valuable to the Austwins, and why James and Meg are silly. They don't wonder if it's the Austwins playing all sides, they assume they're victims to Vanessa's magical manipulation - like how they wrote off Steve's DE as Vanessa instead of wondering if he's working with her.

ETA: All this stemmed from ADC wanting Austin gone so bad and Vanessa not following through. So ADC works with Austin, Austwins trust ADC and Vanessa is the bad guy. Because she wouldn't boot Austin for them. It's funny how it all shook out.

Edited August 20, 2015 by mooses

[TimWil]

I think Zach and Victoria would be comedy gold on TAR.

"You're KILLING me, Victoria!"

[blixie]

 

I wouldn't trust V on a personal level any further than I could chuck a Cadillac - but I'd trust 1,000%™ that V's actions in the game are directed to what V perceives as the betterment of her game position, and try to use that to my advantage.

 

Right and Julia is evaluating Vanessa in exactly those terms, Liz can't "trust" her, but Julia knows if Vanessa is HoH she's not coming after them, and that even IF Vanessa does try to mist the others, she's highly unlikely to find a sympathetic ear. 

 

 

I haven't been following the feeds closely this week, so am I missing something about why everyone wants to be F5 with the Austwins?

 

Right that's why I kind of want some combination of Vanessa/Becky/ and betraying Julia to plan Austin's ouster next week. If Becky REALLY wants to stay in the house and wants to make really truly big ass move that's it, and she will show me she's a bawse if she can set all the bullshit aside and campaign directly to Vanessa. They should all honestly settle on this before tonight, and throw HoH to Meg.  

 

Yeah it's because either John/James/Meg are all going to be bottom bitch to Steve even when Vanessa is out. The house needs a major shake up and I really think those three women are the only ones who are smart enough and/or ballsy enough to try it. I KNOW it's pipe dream but I'll just hold on to it until after the show tonight.

[Cutty]

John tells James he doesn't know if pawning James/Meg would be the best way to get out Van. Well no fucking shit.

 

Best case scenario for next week would be Vanessa/Liz noms, Vanessa winning veto and Julia going up as the replacement. I can't wait to see these two catty bitches on the block together.

[blixie]

 

Eh, I disagree.

 

You're welcome to disagree, kind of the benefit of discussion, but S6 has been plotting on targeting John/Becky for three or four weeks now, that was ALL on Vanessa's initiative. Austwins then made TWO deals with James/Meg for F5, and Steve/John for F5, they made those deals, precisely because they had already decided weeks ago to bounce Becky  first, I see the chicken you see the egg, it's cool.

 

 

much more of a gamble that didn't work out.

 

Did Vanessa's eviction happened and I missed it? Because I'm just not getting this utter dismissal of her still playing the game. But then I rule nothing out, Meg could every EASILY win this mofo and I would not be surprised at all.

 

I realized the other thing I hate about Grodner's game is that everyone on the block/target campaigns to the Hoh, the motherfucker who can't vote, Becky should be going to everyone who isn't an Austwin and arguing their the PROBLEM and let's get this juggernaut OUT. Instead of avoiding the Austwins she went directly to them. Jesus.

Edited August 20, 2015 by blixie

[Katesus7]

I do agree that the house is now attributing things to her that she had no hand in including the back door Austin thing (which for the record LIZTIN never ACTUALLY happened, nor would it have IMO),

 

If Becky and Clay had managed to not suck in a BOB which James was trying to throw to them, Austin would have been gone.  With Vanessa's blessing. 

 

So with Becky's toe injury, I read some vague mumblings about keeping Becky, but it sounds like she's so annoying, people just want her to go.  Works for me, but I think I actually agree with Vanessa that keeping her would probably be better.

[Cutty]

Becky's sloppy rat play the week James was HOH has sealed her fate. Still don't know what she was thinking.

[ShaNaeNae]

I am watching BBAD now. A few min. in, they cut from Meg & Julia ,'Jamesuhh' etc, down in the kitchen to Liz and that , that , eeeewah! thing with a little pony tail in his pubie beard,((WTF is that)? They are what appears to be kissing, but its so awkward and disturbing to watch because Liz is CLEARLY not getting into it like a young, normal, girl should be if your laying with somebody your supposedly sexually attracted to. That tatted up geek! Well, I ALMOST feel sorry for him cause he truly can NOT kiss! I don't know who I feel more embarrassed for! Eewwwahhhh!

 

That was so awkward! The sound was cut off on BBAD during that. He doesn't move his head, I don't even know if he opened his mouth. He just planted his lips on top of hers and sat there with their lips touching while practically laying on her. It was disgusting.

[Ceeg]

I realized the other thing I hate about Grodner's game is that everyone on the block/target campaigns to the Hoh, the motherfucker who can't vote, Becky should be going to everyone who isn't an Austwin and arguing their the PROBLEM and let's get this juggernaut OUT. Instead of avoiding the Austwins she went directly to them. Jesus.

The problem with this is the Austwins still have 2 votes and Steve will not vote out John over Becky. So that's 3 votes, and Liz breaks the tie. Becky has to campaign to them, because James/Meg/Vanessa's votes are meaningless. And that reason alone is exactly why it was a terrible, stupid idea to keep this threesome together so long. They hold so much power now.

[kathybgd]

Oh I knowwwww ShaNaeNae! The. silence of it all along with how he was' kissing?' her was so damn strange and uncomfortable to watch. What the hell is Liz pulling? (I didn't want to go there) but really she looks like she just wants to bust out laughing!

[blixie]

 

Steve will not vote out John over Becky.

 

With respect there is no reason she's shouldn't have TRIED to flip Steve/Vanessa and work out their ish, not one single reason, especially post veto when it was obvious she really WAS the target,and especially if she had already pulled/locked in Meg/James her supposed allies, Steve's a worm, and nothing ventured, nothing gained. It would have been no different then when S6 saved Shelli v. Clay. I just think if she'd made more of an effort with players not Austwins the F5 deals with everyone but Becky would have come out and at best she would be staying at worst she fucked the Austwins shit up as she walks out the door.

[mooses]

Did Vanessa's eviction happened and I missed it? Because I'm just not getting this utter dismissal of her still playing the game. But then I rule nothing out, Meg could every EASILY win this mofo and I would not be surprised at all.

Her game isn't over, but it's on life support. Even she told Shelli they made the right moves at the time and the power shifts didn't go in their favor despite the numbers advantage. She took risks that didn't pay off how she wanted. Noe she's probably gonna have to Janelle this thing and win herself out of trouble.

I really wouldn't care of anyone but James or Vanessa leave next week, but I don't see that as likely. But if Vanessa does last another week, the Austwins might move into danger before her.

Edited August 20, 2015 by mooses

[Ceeg]

With respect there is no reason she's shouldn't have TRIED to flip Steve/Vanessa and work out their ish, not one single reason, especially post veto when it was obvious she really WAS the target,and especially if she had already pulled/locked in Meg/James her supposed allies, Steve's a worm, and nothing ventured, nothing gained. It would have been no different then when S6 saved Shelli v. Clay. I just think if she'd made more of an effort with players not Austwins the F5 deals with everyone but Becky would have come out and at best she would be staying at worst she fucked the Austwins shit up as she walks out the door.

Normally, I agree that going to the HOH is dumb when you can try to change the minds of the people voting instead (case in point, Vanessa last week, she appealed to the voters and ended up staying). But in Becky's case, it's more likely she'd be able to flip the Austwins than flip Steve alone. There's just too much bad blood between Becky and Steve to warrant him voting out John over Becky. It would be a bad game move for Steve, and it would be a bad personal move. However, if Becky could convince Liz, Liz has the ability to influence Austin, Julia, and Vanessa's votes, which is all Becky needs. 

 

I really wouldn't care of anyone but James or Vanessa leave next week, but I don't see that as likely. 

There will have to be some major revelations/dirt dished + someone key winning the Veto to ensure that James and Vanessa both stay this coming week IMO.

Edited August 20, 2015 by Ceeg

[Nashville]

You cease being a great manipulator when no one buys what you're saying.

  

I see zero evidence this is true,

 

My response to this would be "it depends". :) More specifically, I would say this is EXACTLY the opportunity to show yourself to be a MASTER manipulator, but only if - and this is a big "if", and bigger for some than for others:

• You have the self-awareness to see that others in the House truly no longer trust ANYTHING you has to say.
• You have the humility and/or the ability to look past self-deception, and acknowledge your primary goal - that of engendering trust in your fellow HGs - has completely and utterly failed, to the point you've achieved the exact opposite of that goal.
• You have the intelligence to look at the circumstances surrounding you and appreciate opportunities to play a reverse game.

At present, I think Vanessa is foundering on Points 1 and 2; she doesn't yet seem able to admit to herself just how badly her game has devolved, and she grasps tightly to the delusion her former Austwins allies and Steve still take everything she says as truth. We The Viewers know this not to be the case - but omniscience of the cameras notwithstanding, V still should be picking up on the Austwins's noncommittal replies to all her info-sharing attempts, or that Steve's former game-clinginess has almost totally dissolved. I mean, let's face it - if Steve thinks his game position in the House is superior to yours, that's a pretty good indicator you're at the bottom of the heap.

BUT - if Vanessa could come to grips with points 1 and 2, she has a golden opportunity here, as mentioned below:

  

If Becky REALLY wants to stay in the house and wants to make really truly big ass move that's it, and she will show me she's a bawse if she can set all the bullshit aside and campaign directly to Vanessa.

Such a play could prove to be a strategic feather in both their caps - especially since IMHO Vanessa is the ONLY person right now with either the inclination or the ability to save BBecky. How, you say?

• BBecky and V strike an F2 deal (or F3, with most likely Steve); given their previous open animosity toward each other, nobody would suspect a deal, particularly if a strategic facade of animosity is maintained.
• V goes to JMac and sets the background scene - basically capitulates to him on every point of contention between them - not groveling, but "acknowledging" how she was mistaken in her earlier recollections, she did in fact say this-and-that about this-and-that, she's sorry about all the misunderstandings, and she hopes they can look past all this and try to find some way to work together.
• V THEN heads up to her "chums" in HoH, and plays up the benefits of keeping JMac over BBecky ("The plan's still on for Becky to go this evening, right? Good! Because between you and me, Johnny Mac and I have talked a lot over the past couple of days. We've gotten the air cleared on a LOT of things, and I think we ALL could go a LOT farther in this game with him than with Becky, because I know THAT butch is coming at me with guns blazing...."
• Then leave - and leave them wondering WHY V is suddenly JMac's biggest fan. Has she struck a deal with him? Can they count any longer on JMac to go after V if he stays in the House, or might he be open to persuasion for other targets - such as the people who most recently put him OTB?
• Then let's say they call up (the recently defused) JMac for a discussion. He's probably still "oh yeah, I'm still going for Vanessa first chance I get" - but he's still sorting through V's surprising capitulation in his head and what it means to his Game. Which means his anti-V responses may not come as quickly as they did yesterday, or sound as definitive - which, given the raging paranoia rampant in the BB House, is tantamount to confession of a secret alliance, to ears listening for one.

See what I mean? If you can take everybody's total DIStrust of you and weaponize it to your advantage, then by God you OUGHT to win.

[blixie]

 

case in point, Vanessa last week,

 

You mean the same Vanessa everyone  "hates" and won't listen to? 'kay.

I don't disagree that Becky's first appeal should have been to the Austwins, but as soon as the Veto wasn't used, it should have been balls to the wall shit eating, information sharing, and deal making with everyone NOT them, timing wise Steve should have been saved for last because as stated he's servile worm and if Vanessa et al said this is happening and that the target was Austin for the next week I think he would have cracked. I just watch these targeted Hamsters every week and the only one to really TRY to save herself was Vanessa, another reason I don't want to see her leave. None of them really want to work for it or have to work with someone they don't like or "twust', bitch please talk to Allison and  Jun.

 

 

V still should be picking up on the Austwins's noncommittal replies to all her info-sharing attempts

 

Oh I think she does, that's what that whole business on the Hammock was, she's noticed the distance after Liz became HoH, she knows something is up.

 

 

You have the humility and/or the ability to look past self-deception, and acknowledge your primary goal - that of engendering trust in your fellow HGs - has completely and utterly failed, to the point you've achieved the exact opposite of that goal.

 

Aha but see this is what I think has always undermined Vanessa, and we've discussed it before that she is baffled by her competitors irrationality and that she has not in fact been trying to engender their "trust", she's been constantly undermined by their inability to logically intimate that her goals/game overlap with their and therefore she's not "after" them. She can't admit she failed at something she wasn't ever really trying to achieve which is itself a big oversight in her game. 

 

I think Vanessa is capable of #3 but she's too paralyzed with retribution fear to do it, at least so far, I'm hoping she changes her mind, and it is Vanessa so she probably will. Heh. I think Becky is in the better position to initiate your outlined plan/reasons, she should be DESPERATE to stay/win, but she like many before her is fatalistic as hell.

Edited August 20, 2015 by blixie

[Ceeg]

blixie I've never said that Vanessa is a terrible player or that she's an idiot or anything. I mean...as I've stated many times, she's my favorite person in the house. But, I also don't think she's the great player that everyone else in the house thinks she is. She has made some very smart moves, and she's made some very dumb moves. And unfortunately for her, those dumb moves have now put her as the #1 target for practically everyone except for Julia and Steve, and those 2 are planning on throwing HOH AFAIK. When you're in a house with 8 people left, two of which are twins, and then one of those twins is in a showmance, and you're still people's #1 target, something is very wrong with your gameplay.

Maybe Vanessa will surprise me this week, and will convince whoever is HOH that they need to get out the Austwins. But, it's going to be an insanely tough uphill battle, since her word means shit right now. Best case scenario to save Vanessa is that she wins HOH. Next best case would be if James, Julia, or Steve win, but since 2 out of 3 of those people are throwing it, it doesn't seem likely. Should James win, Vanessa would have to throw Austin/Liz under the bus hardcore, and I'm not 100% sure she would or could do that. Up to this point, as far as I've seen, she has yet to verbalize to anyone that the Austwins are a big threat.

Edited August 20, 2015 by Ceeg

[Cutty]

The campaigning has been really bad this season. The person who tried the hardest was probably Jace. 

[LoveLeigh]

Can you imagine a Meg/Julia F2? Oy. 

I think worse would be a Liz/Julia F2. 

[TimWil]

I think worse would be a Liz/Julia F2.

I agree. I can see Mr. Moonves watching this and thinking "What the f**k-uh?"

[Petunia13]

So Liz and Austin said they don't like Day and wouldn't be friends with her since she's a Debbie Downer. She took that well O_o

[mooses]

Should James win, Vanessa would have to throw Austin/Liz under the bus hardcore, and I'm not 100% sure she would or could do that. Up to this point, as far as I've seen, she has yet to verbalize to anyone that the Austwins are a big threat.

The closest she got was telling Steve that she'd be a bad pawn next week because the votes could flip on her, but some others would be better pawn because they'd have two guaranteed votes and it would be harder to flip. Never said names, just "You're smart, you do the math."

This was during their weird conversation where obviously Steve was giving up no information and being not so subtle about changing the subject. She gave a "WTF" look to the camera after, so I think she suspects things have changed but can't do anything about it yet.

Edited August 20, 2015 by mooses

[blixie]

 

I mean...as I've stated many times, she's my favorite person in the house. But, I also don't think she's the great player

 

Heh I know, I don't think she's a GREAT player she has much to prove and this week, it is a biggie, BUT

 

 

it's going to be an insanely tough uphill battle, since her word means shit right now.

 

I know and everyone who both liked/hated her assumed she'd be out on her ass last week during DE and here she is two weeks later, not only still in the house, but  with TWO of her most aggressive enemies either out the door or on their way out the door (Jackie, Becky), and with two ongoing alliances how ever nebulous still in play: Austin's Angels and Freaks and Geeks. Very little about this game stays consistent day to day so I'm relatively dismissive of what the house guests say they "will" do, and look more at what they have *done* and James has worked with Vanessa multiple times (his HoH week and then again when she was on the black with Shelli), there is no reason to think he won't do it again, see you next Tuesday or not, James does not GAF about liking her or not liking her, and he was the ONLY one really to voice what a  HUGE threat Austwins were when he was HoH during the Clelli blow up, but like the Dory Fish he is he forgot it for some damn reason. Vanessa and or Becky could easily help him remember and there is no one left too crazed for Vanessa blood to distract him. I mean Johnny Mac is keyed on her, but he's Johnny Mac I can't see him actually doing anything to make that happen, certainly NOT winning HoH.

 

ETA: case in point from Jokers:

 

 

James: "How come she (Van) hasn't talked to us yet?"

 

Don't tell me he isn't anxious to work with her AGAIN, and telling him heh remember when we talked about Austwins being three strong and they HAD to be broken up? Let's get to the getting.

 

I just don't think Vanessa game play is as currently terrible as people are describing it, she's down to one person dedicatedly after her who has NEVER done a single thing she wanted him to do, three allies who have every reason to keep her, two forgetful fish who she could spin to her whim, and one worm who will twist with the wind. She's in the shit this week, and will be for the run, but someone as smart as her should be able to pull it out to F4/F2, if not win outright.

Edited August 20, 2015 by blixie

[Ceeg]

ETA: case in point from Jokers:

 

 

James: "How come she (Van) hasn't talked to us yet?"

Let's be real though. If she did talk to him, as soon as she left, he'd be laughing about how she's trying to game him. The same as Liz being HOH and criticizing people for not talking to her, and then in the same breath making fun of people for sucking up.

There are also these gems from Jokers:

 

 

Thu 10:12 AM BBT James asks John if Steve is on board for the plan for next week (getting Vanessa out). John says he's pretty sure he is

Thu 10:13 AM BBT James tells John if its them and Austin left in the HoH, James can drop out b/c Austin and John want to take out Vanessa. 

[blixie]

 

If she did talk to him, as soon as she left, he'd be laughing about how she's trying to game him.

 

Which he has said before and proceeded to work with her/save her anyway. Bullshit walks, and James is full of bullshit.

 

The bigger issues is that in fact, Vanessa isn't talking to him (though she did talk to Meg, about "brass tacks" hee,I can't find that convo), so she may really be addled at this point, and feeling her lack of social game, my two big disappointments are how often she's failed to really sit with Julia and bond with her as they have such similar game instincts and her general reluctance to break ranks on her damn alliance no matter how clearly wobbly and unhinged it's become. I think if she knew how split the twins really are over multiple game issues, she'd feel more confident about going after Liztin.

[mooses]

 

James: "How come she (Van) hasn't talked to us yet?"

 

 

I thought that was pretty funny. They really are so focused on her, they can't see anything else. And if Vanessa did talk to them, they would be trash talking what she said no matter what it was.

It's like whenever Steve mentions her to John. John always says, "Did she say anything about me?" And Steve is like, no, we just talked about my life.

 

ETA: We get to see Steve in the DR talking to Julie tonight, which always reminds me that I really don't like him.

Edited August 20, 2015 by mooses

[Nashville]

Which he has said before and proceeded to work with her/save her anyway. Bullshit walks, and James is full of bullshit.

 

Because James "saved" V by voting out Shelli - the HG screaming for James' head on a stick because he dared to put her and Clay on opposing sides of the Block??? How could ANY strategy which involved keeping Shelli in the House work to James' advantage? Sorry, but I see that move by James - swallowing his dislike of V to rid himself of the bigger threat posed by Shelli - as the antithesis of bullshit, Game-wise.

[blixie]

 

Sorry, but I see that move by James

 

I don't think James *game move* was bullshit, I think James *words* about his potential game moves are bullshit, his actions tell me Vanessa post Clelli blow up is not a huge priority for him to get out of the house,and that with very little prompting he can be reminded who really IS the most dangerous in the house right now to him and everyone else: Liztin. I don't think his shit talk *about* Vanessa really means anything, if and when I see him follow through with evicting Vanessa I'll believe it. 

[Arya]

I want Vamessa to win HOH just so the next week isn't a foregone conclusion. I'd like to see any discussion other than "I hate Vanessa, she needs to go" and on and on. This week has been pretty dull since the Veto ceremony.

My dream would be Van winning HOH and Austin leaving next week. Just my luck though, he'd be the returning evictee. Also, I really don't think she'd nominate him. It'd be amazing if she did by pointing out that he's never been nominated and so she has to do it to keep the "House" happy.

[mooses]

No one has told Becky she's leaving yet - Meg talking to Vanessa about having to tell her later. Meg said that Becky told her that Austwins said they're gonna do whatever James/Meg do, so now she has to go fix it and break it to her. Is Austin going to carry her out the door? Can they lock it behind him?

 

[Ceeg]

From Jokers:

 

 

 

Talk about targeting for this week.

Steve says Vanessa did this to herself. Asks Austin to tell him if she says anything about him. Austin says they told him when she started throwing him under the bus weeks ago.

I'm still super confused about what Vanessa did exactly to make them all turn on her. Julia knew all about the BD Austin plan. Vanessa straight up came clean about it to Liz and Austin that very week it happened. Becky didn't tell them any new information. What did Vanessa "do to herself"? Not put Austin on the block even though half the house pressured her to? Protect Steve from being targeted by Jackie that week? James and Meg, I understand the Vanessa hate. Becky, I'm still a little confused about where her Vanessa hate came from, since Becky is the one who created an alliance with her and Clelli, but okay she was never really aligned with her anyway. John, I know his hate is from Clelli revenge, even though Vanessa never fucked Clelli over ever. But I'm totally lost about this F&G turn on Vanessa, and really I have been all week.

Despite how blixie is admirably advocating that this upcoming week isn't a foregone conclusion, the only way Vanessa is safe IMO is if she wins HOH or Veto. Otherwise, she's gone. She's just way too easy a target to get rid of. No one, literally no one, in the house would get flak from anyone else for putting her up. 

Edited August 20, 2015 by Ceeg

[Former Nun]

My dream would be Van winning HOH and Austin leaving next week.

 

 

The only way I could handle this is with both sound AND closed-captioning OFF.  

[Arya]

I just don't get why they even have to tell her? I remember the good times when both nominees felt safe and there was actual tension about who was going home.

[TimWil]

ETA: We get to see Steve in the DR talking to Julie tonight, which always reminds me that I really don't like him.

I always find it genuinely creepy how his voice raises several octaves when he says "Hey, Julie!" and "Thank you, Julie!" It makes me wince.