S30: Previews and Speculations

[Whimsy]

This is for speculation without spoilers. Speculate away!

[KimberStormer]

Jeff says it's the best episode of the season, and it's before the merge?  I can only guess that it is a tribal swap/consolidation into 2 tribes.  Can't wait to see.

[Alapaki]

Would they consolidate with an unequal (15) number of players left, though?

 

Also, there's a better-than-decent chance this is just Probst trying to puff a thus-far mediocre season leading into what I assume will be a March Madness break.

[Wings]

Jeff says it's the best episode of the season, and it's before the merge?  I can only guess that it is a tribal swap/consolidation into 2 tribes.  Can't wait to see.

 

 

The other time they had 3 tribes they consolidated when they saw one team (genius) was about to be obliterated.  Makes perfect sense.  They will do that in the second hour to even the numbers if this happens.  But it could be that the Blue collars go to TC and it won't be necessary to consolidate so soon.   

[LadyChatts]

I put this in the spoiler thread, but since it's not spoiler-y, I guess I can put it here-if someone is injured during the first challenge next week (or what I'm assuming is the first challenge), then would they even have a TC?  If the person is injured before the winners are declared and they have to stop, that is.  Maybe that's the reason for the 2 episodes next week, no one goes home in the first hour, then they do the swap and eliminate someone then.  Of course I haven't heard of any double elimination this season or anyone being pulled due to injury, so I may be wrong on that.  I would think they'd have to have a double elimination at some point to make up for not booting someone in the first hour, if that were to happen.

[LanceM]

The last time they had 3 tribes they had a swap when it got down to 14 players and then split them up into two tribes of 7. I expect that is what we will see in the second episode on Wednesday night. The only question is what they are going to do to determine which tribe gets retired.  

 

EDIT: it is official, splitting them up into two tribes

 

http://www.survivorfever.net/vc_s30_ep5_3_14.html

Edited March 14, 2015 by LanceM

[truthaboutluv]

The other time they had 3 tribes they consolidated when they saw one team (genius) was about to be obliterated.

Well in Malcolm's original season, they did wait until it was literally down to just him and Denise before they split them up. But yeah if I had to bet I imagine the first hour is still the three tribes, someone goes home, then the second hour is the swap to make it two tribes. And if they're going for a 9 member jury and 3 finalists, then it's only two tribal councils before the merge.

[pennben]

I got a really bad feeling after they showed Lindsey saying "the winner of this game is on the blue tribe" and they immediately cut to Dan shaking his head yes.  Please don't let that mean that Dan wins.

Edited March 20, 2015 by pennben

[LadyChatts]

If a BC male wins, I'm going with Mike.  I don't know that I'd say he's likable, but probably the least offensive of the men over there.  And from the start, something about him just screamed 'winner' to me.  I don't know what it was exactly and still don't.  Didn't Lindsey say, in the very first episode when the tribes were all introduced, that the winner was on that mat?  Someone from the tribe said it I think.  I guess if we start seeing any sort of redemption edit with those 3, then we know what's up :(  If any of the BC tribe wins, I'm hoping it's Kelly or Sierra.  Even if they decide to go with the 3 offensive oafs, I can understand their thinking.  I just don't want to see anymore of those stupid cocky smirks like we saw last night when they voted Lindsey off.

Edited March 20, 2015 by LadyChatts

[Lantern7]

I'm assuming that we've reached the jury phase with next week's merge. I think all bets will be off as to who goes next, but I must say this: Rodney's jury speech is probably going to be a keeper. Or "keepah," depending on the accent.

[Lingo]

Actually, it's typically 8 members on the jury with 3 finalists.  Remember John Rocker's girlfriend Julie?  She made the merge but not the jury.

[Lantern7]

So there's still a chance we'll be spared Rodney on the jury? Or giving a speech to the jury? On the bright side, he'd probably be with Joaquin (Joaquim?) in the losers' lounge.

 

Out of curiosity, how soon does CBS air teasers for upcoming episodes? Or post them online? I feel like dissecting material and making educated guesses.

[marys1000]

So they are at 12 now.  Am I counting right?  And people seem to think that the merge might be with 12 so next episode - merge before immunity challenge? Or after?  I've seen people say it both ways. 

So how will the alliances shape up?  I'd love to see some switching up so Dan and Rodney get left in the dust.

Will Carolyn pull in Tyler?

Will Joe pull in Sierra?  I think their conversation was about something and unless someone can guarentee Dan and Rodney are gone post haste or she just really has no other better option she is outta blue collar

So if Mike sticks with Dan and Rodney picks up Kelly and loses  Sierra BC = 4

No collar will have Joe, Jenn, Hali, Will, 4 plus Sierra = 5

 

 

That leaves Tyler, Shirin, Carolyn?  No one wants to be on an alliance of 3  I could see Tyler going with Blue collar, Shirin going with No collar leaving Carolyn as probably BC? 

 

So BC = 6 without Sierra

NC = 4 plus 3 with Sierra, Tyler and Caroline = 7, with Shirin it would be 8

Is that right?

 

From Joaquins post snuff interview

Joaquin: I regretted it immediately after day three — it ruined my chances of keeping So alive in the game, which is very unfortunate.  But I don’t feel like it hurt my chances of moving forward with my tribe — because what you don’t see is, after day three, Tyler, Carolyn, and I basically became the power team on our tribe.  Max and Shirin were on the outs starting day four until the mix-up.  So, of course, I regret it because my girl went home and I wish I could’ve kept her around longer.  Just for the record, though, the “neutral” thing was not my lie; sorry, So.

Cochran: I was surprised that, even after the bungled “neutral” lie, you seemed to have pretty good relationships with your White Collar tribemates.  How did you manage to ingratiate yourself so well after that day one mistake?

Joaquin: It’s funny — the only thing I have to thank Shirin for is being so crazy that it drew me, Carolyn, and Tyler together and it built this extremely strong bond.  And Carolyn had this hatred for Max, which was great because —  I didn’t mind Max, but I couldn’t stand Shirin, and Max and Shirin were great friends.  So guess what: sorry Max, [expletive] you — you did it to yourself.  You take the crazy person on the tribe and you become best friends with her, then everybody else is gonna look at you like, “Uh, alright.”

 

Cochran: The preview for next week’s episode showed us that the merge has finally arrived.  Assuming last night’s tribal council had gone the way you wanted, what were your plans for the post-merge game?

Joaquin: In an ideal world, I thought I was going in there with me, Tyler, Rodney, and Sierra.  Then, on the other side, obviously I had Carolyn, who was my really close ally.  And then Rodney said that he was really close with Kelly and that we were going to head over there, and be us six against them.

 

Where was Mike? 

Edited March 27, 2015 by marys1000

[Lingo]

So they are at 12 now.  Am I counting right?  And people seem to think that the merge might be with 12 so next episode - merge before immunity challenge? Or after?  I've seen people say it both ways. 

 

This is the thread in which we're allowed to talk about the previews, right? You even mention them in your own post.

Preview spoiler:

The merge definitely happens next week with the remaining 12, which has been the norm in recent seasons.

 

A merge would definitely happen before an immunity challenge.  (I don't even know how they could do it after the IC but before tribal council -- would everyone go to TC, or just the team that lost??) In previous seasons, they've sometimes had the merge after a reward challenge, but most often there isn't a reward challenge in the merge episode.

 

I don't see Tyler and Carolyn joining the BCs without a lot of additional persuasion.  The BCs just voted off one of their closest allies, and Carolyn has made inroads with the NCs.

[marys1000]

So the BC's will really need Shirin.  Oh boy, Shirin and Rodney in the same alliance!

[Lingo]

I just remembered that Probst has said in EW interviews that there's a new twist this season, a "new advantage", that he said would play out in an entertaining and satisfying manner.  I'm betting that this twist will be introduced or at least alluded to at the merge (like the "Tyler Perry" Idol last year).  I can't even imagine what kind of advantage it could be if it's not a minor variation on a HII.

[ToastnBacon]

I just remembered that Probst has said in EW interviews that there's a new twist this season, a "new advantage", that he said would play out in an entertaining and satisfying manner.  I'm betting that this twist will be introduced or at least alluded to at the merge (like the "Tyler Perry" Idol last year).  I can't even imagine what kind of advantage it could be if it's not a minor variation on a HII.

I think it might be the Black Vote. The last person voted out gets to vote in the next TC.

[peachmangosteen]

I'm thinking that next week we'll see Hali/Jenn/Will/Joe/Shirin vs. Mike/Dan/Kelly/Rodney with Sierra, Tyler, and Carolyn as wild cards. I think Sierra will end up going with Joe's group and then we might see a tie.

 

I think it might be the Black Vote. The last person voted out gets to vote in the next TC.

 

That seems to be the common rumor about the twist. Do you think it would only happen once or be an ongoing thing?

Edited March 27, 2015 by peachmangosteen

[ToastnBacon]

 

That seems to be the common rumor about the twist. Do you think it would only happen once or be an ongoing thing?

Ongoing for the rest of this season would be great and it would certainly lead to more dramatic tribal councils.

[peachmangosteen]

Yea, I kinda like the idea of it being a thing all the way to the F5 actually. 

 

I'm excited for the new twist. I suspect it might end up being dumb and that I'll hate it, but it's fun that something new is coming.

[KimberStormer]

That doesn't sound like much of an advantage to me.

[ToastnBacon]

It is a disadvantage, it makes maneuvering more tricky and provides an opportunity for revenge.

I think it adds an advantage for those who have the ability to calculate how the outgoing player will vote.

[Way Wes Jr]

For my rankings I pretended that the merge isn’t happening this week.  I’m over that now.  First, a location speculation:  Since they don’t re-seed idols until they are played, the merge camp will be at Escamera beach, as there is still an idol to be found at the old “blue” campsite.  A second speculation, the first immunity challenge will be the “hold a pole,” as shown at CBS.  Hali or Carolyn will win the immunity idol.  (Perhaps Shirin should be included also, as she should know that she needs it.)

 

I don’t think we’ll see anything close to a straight Pagonging this season, there are too many potential switchers and “lone wolves,” for that to happen.

So, as I said in my ‘rankings’ post in the episode thread, the original Nagarotes are the largest alliance block, though the original Escamerans might appear to be.  (By tribe: Blue (5) Mike, Dan, Kelly, Sierra, and Rodney; Red (4) Joe, Jenn, Hali, and Will; and Yellow (3) Carolyn, Tyler, Shirin.)

 

In terms of what I see are the current alliances:

 

NoCollar4: Joe, Jenn, Hali, and Will.  Will has potential to switch out, but I don’t think he’d do it in order to become the least valuable person in his new alliance.  (I.e., if Mike approaches him to switch, he probably wouldn’t.)  but, I could see Will approaching a group of “outcasts” loosely associated within or without of his alliance to ‘switch things up.’  [say, for example, Will, Carolyn, Tyler, Sierra, and/or Shirin.]

 

BluCollar3: Mike, Kelly, and Dan.  Mike and Kelly have appeared to keep their alliance quiet, and I think that, after Rodney has his Roidney Rage moment after tribal, that Mike may be able to reel him back into the fold.  But, I’m not sure enough of that to include him in this group.

 

Carolyn and Tyler:  These two have great stealth couple potential, especially since the only person who could really sound the drums against them (Shirin,) would be in a Cassandra position with regards to her warnings.  I can also see Tyler managing to “mend” things with Joe, even with his vote against him, as both seem to be rational players.

 

And the three “lone wolves”: Shirin, who has apparently annoyed everyone but the BluCollar3.  (Now that she knows she’s annoying, thanks to Carolyn and Hali, she possibly could make inroads with them.)  Sierra, who is currently aligned with one person she hates (Dan,) and potentially, if Mike does what I think he’ll try to do, two (Rodney.)  And Rodney, who depending upon how hard he blows up, will either be alienated from everyone, or reabsorbed into the Escamera fold.

 

So which combination makes the most sense to get to seven for the first vote?  [in reality I’m hoping for a complete clusterf* of a vote where there isn’t a group of seven, and we see multiple votes going to three players.]  I’m willing to guess that the Nagarotes are going to proclaim the (five) Escamerans as the big threat post merge, while the “Blue Collars” will claim that they are, at best, a fractured group, and the “tight” four “No Collars” are the true threat.

 

What follows is my best guess as what rational self-interest should lead folk to do.  It may also be considered fan-fiction, so take the rest at whatever value you’d like. 

I think Sierra will join the Nagarotes.  She decided to save Joe, they were shown being social, and she probably has more in common with Jenn and Hali (on the surface,) than anyone else left.  Even though Tyler went against Joe in the last vote, he also went against Mike and Dan.  Carolyn is the true wild card, bringing Tyler with her most likely, and she did get to go on the bonding reward with Jenn and Hali.  That’s seven, that’s enough, and they might even be able to draw Shirin in as well.

 

Who do they target?  (“Edit” talk ahead!)  The head of the snake, of course.  Who decapitated a scorpion and ate it?  Who killed, and seemed to relish eating, a snake?  Who has been receiving a redemption edit that many are calling a “Winner’s Edit?  [And note, if we look to recent history, a “First Boot after the Merge,” edit looks a LOT like a “Winner’s Edit.”]  Why that would be Mike of course.  The ‘leader’ of the opposing alliance, who is also a “physical” immunity threat; who is also unlikely to win the first,  “hold the pole,” immunity challenge.

 

So my best guess at the post-merge rankings?

1. Jenn, 2. Joe, 3.Hali, 4. Carolyn (HII,) 5. Sierra, 6. Will, 7. Tyler, 8. Shirin (Goat,) 9. Rodney (Goat,) 10. Kelly, 11. Dan, and 12. Mike

[LadyChatts]

So there's still a chance we'll be spared Rodney on the jury? Or giving a speech to the jury? On the bright side, he'd probably be with Joaquin (Joaquim?) in the losers' lounge.

 

Out of curiosity, how soon does CBS air teasers for upcoming episodes? Or post them online? I feel like dissecting material and making educated guesses.

 

http://www.cbs.com/shows/survivor/photos/1003748/see-castaways-climb-their-way-to-the-top-after-the-merge/

 

Here are the photos for the upcoming episode (I'm assuming because they're posted publicly it's not considered a spoiler?)

[peachmangosteen]

I could easily see Jenn, Hali, Shirin, Carolyn, or Joe winning that IC. Sierra maybe, too. I feel pretty sure Mike, Dan, and Kelly have no chance of winning it. 

 

I think Shirin will join the NCs and Sierra will stay with the BCs, at least at first.

 

I'd love to see Mike being the first merge target and your spec about his edit looking like a possible 'first merge boot' edit sounds probable, Way Wes Jr.

[LadyChatts]

http://www.cbs.com/shows/survivor/video/482429BC-CC4D-7346-C3B2-59CDA5CA3D8F/survivor-the-line-will-be-drawn-tonight-preview-/

 

Here's one of the promos for this week.  Apparently both the blue/no collars want to work with the former white collars, so Tyler considers himself and Carolyn swing votes (I'm guessing Shirin must have picked a side, unless Tyler doesn't count her as being part of the WC).  After last season with Jon/Jaclyn's "we're in the middle again!" I'm really hoping I don't have to stomach another season of that.  Nothing too revealing about this upcoming episode.  And if a big deal is made about T/C being swing votes, something tells me it won't matter.  Maybe they'll split the vote between each group to show loyalty.  With the 3 former WC, plus Sierra and Rodney, there's 5 potential votes up for grabs.  Assuming that Sierra and Rodney turn on their former tribe.  It would really be in everyone's best interest to start chipping away at the 5 remaining BC, and get their numbers down (plus try and keep as many of them off the jury).  I feel like that 30 second promo is the most I've seen of Tyler this season.

 

I'm cautiously optimistic going into the merge, but somehow I'm getting a bad feeling the season is heading downhill.  Hopefully I'm wrong. 

Edited March 31, 2015 by LadyChatts

[pennben]

 

With the 3 former WC, plus Sierra and Rodney, there's 5 potential votes up for grabs

 

I don't think Sierra is up for grabs.  I think she made her choice last week and will stick to it, until it becomes impossible. Last week was her fork in the road.  I think she chose her path....and here we go.  This is based on my notion that for her to continue to waffle, would kill her game from both sides.  We shall see.

[LadyChatts]

I don't think Sierra is up for grabs.  I think she made her choice last week and will stick to it, until it becomes impossible. Last week was her fork in the road.  I think she chose her path....and here we go.  This is based on my notion that for her to continue to waffle, would kill her game from both sides.  We shall see.

 

I don't know that I see Sierra sticking with Mike/Dan/Kelly.  In her case, voting against Joaquin last week may have been more against Rodney than picking a side.  Pick the lesser of two evils and side with them for the week.  She liked Joaquin, but Rodney must be something else if she voted with Mike and Dan to save Joe.  I do agree that if she waffles, and shows it, then she'll no doubt be getting bounced from the game sooner than she expects.  People needs votes on their side, but pretending you're back and forth doesn't exactly help your cause.  I could see her sticking with Mike and his alliance for the time being, getting rid of Rodney, and then bringing in whoever is left from the former NC/WC group to overthrow Mike/Dan/Kelly.  Assuming that those 3 are still intact, and Sierra doesn't wait to long to get numbers on her side.  She's the 4th one on the totem pole in that group.  That could very well be her argument for turning on them, and she'd be right.  Whoever is left would be desperate to stay in the game, and it could be Sierra luring Mike and the gang into a false sense of security.  Wouldn't be the first time someone waited patiently for revenge.

 

In saying all of that, I still wouldn't rule out Sierra making some sort of sub alliance or even ditching her former blues this week.  I know she has said in extra vids that she likely has a better chance winning against Mike/Dan/Kelly/Rodney in the final 3, but she's got to get there first.  And she can't make any guarantees she will make it there.  She waits to make a move, others may make one without her.  There wasn't anything much in the promos about any blow up of Rodney's, so I'm thinking that's going to be much ado about nothing.  Considering it's Rodney he may figure that she's so darn unlikeable that he's got a cake walk to the final 3 because anyone can win against him.

Edited March 31, 2015 by LadyChatts

[Wings]

I foresee the blues imploding.  Rodney is not a subtle guy and he is actively working on his plan with Will to "rule the game."  He may really think that Tyler and Carolyn are with him on this.   I think he will tip his hand next week and be a likely contender to get the boot.   If Mike gets wind of this he will.  I anticipate more lines being drawn.  

 

No one wants to align with Joe because they all want the biggest threat gone, unfortunately.  Something grand has to happen to take him out of the target seat.  Rodney's plan could do that.  

[LadyChatts]

I think the blues will implode, especially if Sierra and Rodney were only going to stick with them for the first couple of votes.  Since they are down to their original 4 members, those two might actually make a move if that was their intent.  Sierra could very well bring Tyler into some grand scheme of hers, and as a result get Carolyn.  She did vote for Joaquin, so Tyler may not trust her, but he may trust her more than Mike.  The preview wasn't very telling, so it could be a whole lot of nothing next week.  Rodney has such a desperate need for control, that I think he just aligned with Will/Tyler/Carolyn because he was out of options.  He wants an alliance and wants to be calling the shots, pulling the strings.  Those three might look like easy marks for him to go along with his plans.  He'd be right about Will, but I wouldn't underestimate Carolyn.  It's hard to know if Rodney's plan next week to oust Mike will lead to his own demise or go like the previous two plans have, with Rodney being left with a befuddled look on his face at tribal.

 

The one thing about Joe is, as long as he's around, no one is going to have a bigger target on their back than him.  I remember in Jeff's pre-season cast assessment that Joe would be quite the force if they let him get deep into the game.

[ProfCrash]

Rodney's pitch to Will could lead Will to go back to the No Collars and apologize for his vote and work with them. Will is likely to see how unstable to Blue Collar alliance is and want to move to something a bit more solid. He could pull in Tyler and Carolyn to the White Collar alliance. Then it is 3-3-1. Shirin voted with the No Collars but it is pretty clear that the No Collars are tolerating her. Carolyn and Will know that Shirin irked the heck out of Hali and Jenn and that they were willing to vote for her over Max.  If the three defectors get together and move as a unit to the No Collar alliance, they set up a more even playing field that gives them some room to work, all parties working on Shirin.

[Wings]

I agree.  I don't think Carolyn or Tyler are considering aligning with Rodney unless they think it will serve them for one week.  

Rodney's pitch to Will could lead Will to go back to the No Collars and apologize for his vote and work with them. Will is likely to see how unstable to Blue Collar alliance is and want to move to something a bit more solid. He could pull in Tyler and Carolyn to the White Collar alliance. Then it is 3-3-1. Shirin voted with the No Collars but it is pretty clear that the No Collars are tolerating her. Carolyn and Will know that Shirin irked the heck out of Hali and Jenn and that they were willing to vote for her over Max.  If the three defectors get together and move as a unit to the No Collar alliance, they set up a more even playing field that gives them some room to work, all parties working on Shirin.

 

 

Sounds good.  We do not see the personal reasons why someone would go against what seems to be a good move.  The social game can put a stick in the spokes of logical thinking. 

Edited April 2, 2015 by wings707

[peachmangosteen]

I think Hali/Jenn/Shirin/Joe are the only true alliance at this point and there is no doubt IMO that they will stick together, which could end up being good for them. I imagine Carolyn, Tyler, Will, and maybe even Sierra and Rodney will now be scrambling to decided what path to take and that might help the NC+Shirin alliance.

 

Plus we still have that new power coming up that will probably throw a wrench into everything.

 

There's definitely potential for some great stuff now and I hope it comes to fruition.

[ProfCrash]

Shirin has to know that she is fourth in that alliance. She could very well be swayed to work with someone who offers her a solid final three alliance.

 

I just love the fact that the one person who everyone was comfortable ostracizing is likely going to be the swing vote for everyone. She can say she is tight with Jenn, Hali, and Joe and still make a move if they get to seven and someone offers her a better position then fourth place.

[peachmangosteen]

She could and maybe should, but I don't think she will. Although my sepc is based on the fact that she seems quite close to Jenn now.

 

Jeff's EW tease for the next ep:

 

Simply put, one of the best episodes of an already very strong season. And one of the best idol hides and finds in history.  It’s fantastic, start to finish.

 

I'm not feeling too good about the next ep now since the last ep Jeff said was the best was actually awful. Also, this is not already a strong season IMO, so Jeff and I have much different views.

Edited April 2, 2015 by peachmangosteen

[LadyChatts]

This season still has a lot of potential to be good.  I know Jeff's ringing endorsement isn't always something to go on, but if it's picking off Jenn/Joe/Hali/Shirin as the next 4 boots and making it a predictable merge, I can't believe he would have hyped this season so much.  I have to think that a lot is going to happen, and some good blindsides are coming.  The BC guys may be the characters Probst loves, but this show always loves the Jenn, Joe, and Shirin types.  I wouldn't be surprised if Tyler/Carolyn get broken up next week, or in the very near future.  Either that or Rodney gets sent packing, but even if Rodney is gunning for him, I think Mike will want to keep him around.  Rodney will eventually have no one but his former blues to work with.  No one else wants to work with him.  If Mike believes his former BC will stay loyal to him, and if they believe Will will remain on their side, he may decide to target people that can end up taking him down.  

 

ETA: I was curious what Jeff was going to say about the upcoming episode.  I also agree that the last time he said it was "the best episode", it wasn't.  Except Max getting booted, but we had to get to the end of a 2 hour ep for that.  I'm a little nervous in regards to the idol.  There seemed to be quite a bit of focus on Mike in the preview spying on everyone, so I hope that's not an indicator he found it.  I'm not really sure what he means by best idol hides and finds, because this show doesn't exactly make it complicated to find an idol anymore.  Might as well just hang them from a tree branch.

Edited April 2, 2015 by LadyChatts

[plurie]

Jenn and Hali seem really tight. Joe is in the alliance with them, but I think they're both too smart to want to go to the final three with him. They probably can't beat him for individual immunity, and they'd be hard pressed to beat him on jury votes. Shirin, OTOH, is not good at challenges and not popular. I'm sure Jenn realizes this. Shirin should make it to the final three if the "No Collars + Shirin" alliance controls things.

 

 

[LadyChatts]

http://www.survivorfever.net/s30_press_images_ep8.html

 

Images for episode 8.  We do see a shot of Joe/Shirin talking to Tyler, so maybe they're trying to bring him over.  Looks like it's a puzzle challenge.

Edited April 2, 2015 by LadyChatts

[pennben]

This is probably me being silly, but does anyone think the compass on the Immunity Idol serves a purpose?

[Way Wes Jr]

A Balance Beam Challenge?  Gee, who does that favor?  Combined with puzzle pieces?  If those pics show the immunity challenge (rather than a reward challenge,) then put the necklace on Joe/Jenn/Carolyn right now.

 

And we got shots of Tyler seeming be talking to Joe, hmm.

 

But the picture that really grabbed my attention was: 

 

Doesn't this scream, "too comfortable in their position within the tribe," combined with "not pulling their weight around camp?"  Just like whichever Christie brother got the boot post-merge in BvW II?

[ProfCrash]

I am enjoying this season. Everyone is there to play. They may not be great at it but they are all trying to play the game. I'll take that over a game full of Keith's any day of the week.

[kikaha]

This is probably me being silly, but does anyone think the compass on the Immunity Idol serves a purpose?

Maybe not right, but not silly at all IMO.  Could be part of the advantage Jeff has talked about. 

[LadyChatts]

What's funny about the balance beam/puzzle challenge is that in one of the vids online, Dan said he would totally excel at those types of challenges.  He was commenting on being the first one out of the IC, but conceded he wasn't going to stand a chance in the physical type challenges.  He said he would need the swimming/puzzle challenges to have a shot to win.  That's the only challenge show so far, so I had wondered if they were just doing one challenge instead of two.

 

I hadn't thought about the compass on the necklace, but unless its a one-time thing, I would think Jeff might have said something about it starting last night.  Though with a mystery twist coming up at some point, maybe.  I think it's an ugly necklace myself, though they had an ugly idol this year.

Edited April 2, 2015 by LadyChatts

[KimberStormer]

Shirin has to know that she is fourth in that alliance. She could very well be swayed to work with someone who offers her a solid final three alliance.

 

I just love the fact that the one person who everyone was comfortable ostracizing is likely going to be the swing vote for everyone. She can say she is tight with Jenn, Hali, and Joe and still make a move if they get to seven and someone offers her a better position then fourth place.

 

Fourth is a great great place to be in that alliance.  Surely Joe does not want to go up against Jenn and vice-versa.  It's not a situation where they're going to both end up with final immunity like Yul and Ozzy did.  Will was catastrophically stupid to flip and Shirin would be too.  Mmmmaybe when you want to take out all the FTC threats you flip, not before.  It's total crazy town to not stick with a final 4 where there's more than one top dog.

[peachmangosteen]

Yep, exactly. I didn't even think about the fact that Joe will probably want Jenn out before F3 as well. So, Shirin has a couple options come F4. Yea, it would be very dumb for her to flip now, especially with her 'I am not a swing vote,' at TC.

 

I really think NC+Shirin are going to be victorious, but I can't figure out how. I'm excited to see what happens next.

[LadyChatts]

As some other people have said, the show loves underdogs.  There was the Aitu 4, Foa Foa going into the merge horribly outnumbered, the brains tribe, and even Malcolm/Denise being the only original members of their tribe in the merge.  They can probably guess as the show progresses who is going to be popular with viewers.  Sometimes they are wrong, and while I wouldn't be too surprised to see Joe/Jenn as the next boot, I don't believe they will get decimated.  It will probably be the logic of breaking up the pair, thinking they can take their votes.  Unlike some others out there, I don't expect those 2 to do whatever Mike says.  And no one is listening to Rodney.

[kikaha]

In the preview for next week, everyone is in a mad scramble to find the HII.  Mike is in a tree, searching for Joe, who is nowhere to be found.  That makes me think Joe might have a clue for the HII, and others know that.  He could have gotten the clue by winning the IC: maybe the compass helps lead him to the HII, though it still takes some creative thinking to find it.  

 

Things will get real interesting if the NC4 again win the IC and find the HII as well.   

[Wings]

Yes, I think that Joe got a clue to the II along with winning the II and the compass does play a part.  Jeff made some mention of a well hidden II.  I looked to find his statement about next week but could not.  I thought it was in this thread.  

Edited April 3, 2015 by wings707

[LadyChatts]

Jeff said it was one of the best idol hides and finds in history.  There's a lot of emphasis on the idol this week, which could just be coming from Jenn's idol play.  I'm hoping Joe, or Jenn/Hali/Shirin, find the idol.  I don't know that I believe Joe finds it just from the preview, because it seemed like Mike was simply spying on everyone.  It did sound like Joe disappeared and no one knew where he went, so maybe.  I wonder if we'll get a fake idol planted and someone finds that, believing it is the right one.

[Special K]

I'm curious about that compass, too.  It seemed so odd to have it hanging there, not evidently related to the season's location, and they made a point of showing Joe turning it up towards his face and looking at it.  Could the HII clue be there in code? That would be so cool! 

 

Also, the necklace just hangs around the campsite, so anyone could take advantage of it, if it is there somehow.

 

ETA:  Here's a pic of it (hope the link works):  http://41.media.tumblr.com/8ec9c7bff2d34122aadf816523280b01/tumblr_nlfuusiEAh1uokvyoo1_1280.jpg

Edited April 3, 2015 by Special K