S30: Previews and Speculations

[kikaha]

If the compass does help find the HII, my guess is you need an extra clue with it, that perhaps Jeff gives whoever wins the IC.  Otherwise, like Special K says, most anyone could use it.   

[LadyChatts]

That's assuming they'd know what the compass means, and that it isn't just part of the necklace.  This was a shipwreck theme this season, so that was where I thought the compass came into play.  Maybe that is where the idol paranoia comes into play, is after the challenge and they assume or are told the winner gets a clue to the idols whereabouts.

[kikaha]

LadyChatts, it's all guesses but my thought is that you need the clue and the compass together... Joe has both... and that's why Mike is on the lookout for him. 

[KimberStormer]

I've been thinking about minority alliances that survived and thrived, and specifically ones that did so via an idol play.  What I am hoping is for the NC+Shirin gang (we need a better name for this) to be like the Parvati/Russell/Danielle trio in HvV.  We look at this and say, well, OK they saved themselves for three days, but next week they're still outnumbered, and why did they target Kelly instead of Mike?  Similarly, Parv and her minions were still outnumbered in the Villain camp, and they targeted Tyson, not Rob (the obvious leader of the opposite side, much more obvious, I feel, than Mike.)  From outside it seems like there was no reason for them not to simply get picked off one by one, and in fact as Tyson was sort of the only real threat to Rob in that group (could Courtney, Sandra, Coach, or Jerri succeed against Rob 3.0 at FTC?  I doubt it) you might easily have thought that they'd just given Rob a Redemption Island style cruise to the end.  But instead his morale was annihilated and his alliance shattered to pieces.  I like Rob, but the scene of him forlornly mystified at Parvati/Russell/Danielle's gloating good spirits is one of my cherished Survivor moments.  It doesn't compute for him, and he's unable to get it together to fix things.  Meanwhile Russell and Parvati are pulling Jerri over, getting Coach to weakly betray Rob with his "why can't we all get along and vote out Courtney?" thing...

 

So yeah, I'm hoping that this idol play will have more ramifications than just one tribal.  Like Penner's immunity win in Philippines, and unlike the Three Amigos' entertaining but fruitless triple immunity...

[LadyChatts]

Given the emphasis on the idol this week in the previews, I feel like it is going to mean something.  That's about all there is in the preview on my cable guide, and the Jeff tease for the week.  Whether it will be this episode, who knows, but if it was a predictable, boring boot, I don't know that Probst would call it another "best episode of the season!"  It's the one thing I like about the idol, is that it makes it less likely a tribe or alliance will get Pagonged after the merge.  The" biggest idol find" clue Jeff put out there could mean that the underdogs of Jenn & the gang have can put yet another wrinkle in the opposing alliances plans.  Especially if one of the 4 of them also wins immunity again.  Or maybe someone like Sierra finds it, and decides to use it to defect to the other side and help them.  .

 

In the promo pics of Tyler talking to Joe/Shirin, it seems like they are trying to work on him by the looks on their faces.  Maybe Tyler has heard something he didn't like.  Since there was emphasis from T/C about being the swing votes this past episode, if they carry that into next week, one of them may get blindsided.  I don't know that Mike, whose all about breaking up the power couples, would be dumb enough to try and break up Tyler/Carolyn just yet-and still expect the remaining member to stay with his side after the fact.  Will's unpredictable, so if he knows Rodney is gunning for Mike, he might use that knowledge to get back in to the good graces of his former tribe, if he realizes flipping on them was a bad move.

 

In regards to the compass on the necklace: since that is being featured in the promo pics, maybe you guys are on to something about it having to do with the game and the idol.  I just figured after Jenn's idol play, the former Esecmeca realizes that they never bothered to look for their idol and its out there, still.

 

ETA: More promo pics.  Nothing really here except Tyler, Joe, and Mike on the hunt for the idol.  I hope the voice over of Mike saying he's gotta find it means he doesn't, or he finds a fake one.

 

http://survivorfever.net/vc_s30_ep8_4_4.html

 

http://www.survivorfever.net/vc_s30_ep8_4_5.html

 

I'm really wondering if maybe this week is all about the idol, and because the boot is so predictable that's all they focus on.  Hopefully the emphasis on Mike being so desperate to find it means he doesn't.

Edited April 6, 2015 by LadyChatts

[pennben]

I'm becoming more convinced that the compass on the Individual Immunity means something.  Note how in this preview for the immunity challenge, it is highlighted in close up.

[riley702]

You might just have something there, pennben. Another twist?

[LadyChatts]

I hope there's something.  I'm nervous going into this week that all the promos and teasers are about the idol, which makes me think that its going to be an obvious boot (and one of my favorites, since I believe Joe and Jenn are 1st and 2nd on the chopping block).  I feel like "idol mania" will be much ado about nothing.  I still don't know about the compass, though since they've never had anything that elaborate on an immunity necklace (have they?) maybe it does mean something, and maybe that's where all the hysteria comes from.  Is that whoever wins the RC or IC gets a clue and has to use the compass as part of it.  Interesting theory that I actually hope is true, because that would be something different.  That could be why Mike seems to be following Joe around.  At any rate, here's hoping for a blindside on the BC or Tyler/Carolyn.  Since Tyler's gotten more attention in the last episode, and in the promos, than he has all season, maybe he makes a major power move this week.

[cooksdelight]

I noticed that compass first thing, and wondered... now it makes sense.

[peachmangosteen]

At any rate, here's hoping for a blindside on the BC or Tyler/Carolyn.  Since Tyler's gotten more attention in the last episode, and in the promos, than he has all season, maybe he makes a major power move this week.

 

I hope NC3+Shirin can find a way to take out a BC or Carolyn/Tyler. I could see you being right about Tyler and he makes a power move and I am kind of afraid it could be the move Probst referred to as changing the game or whatever. I just really want NC3+Shirin to pull this off and be the F4, dammit!

Edited April 8, 2015 by peachmangosteen

[peachmangosteen]

Well, Mike's winning. I'll be shocked now if he doesn't.

 

Although I still weirdly have the feeling Shirin might win. I have no idea how it would happen, but her edit intrigues me.

 

They need to bring the new twist in real soon because this is getting very predictable and boring. I also hope that 'game changing move' is soon.

[scowl]

Well, Mike's winning. I'll be shocked now if he doesn't.

 

I second that speculation. He's getting a Tony edit. That's why we had to spend ten minutes watching his stealth and cunning to get the idol so we'll know why he deserved to win, just like we saw Tony building hiding places to spy on people.

 

Also Probst says this is the bestest season of Survivor ever, so that means either Mike or Rodney will win. 

[peachmangosteen]

Also Probst says this is the bestest season of Survivor ever, so that means either Mike or Rodney will win. 

 

Apparently Probst called the winner 'iconic,' which makes me even more sure Mike wins. I mean I guess it's better than like most of the rest of them winning, but I still hate it.

 

There's an extra vid from this ep and Mike seems fairly sure that his HII is the BC one. First of all, Mike, why in the fuck did it take you 21 days to look for it? Also, do we think they also hid one for the merged tribe or no? I almost hope there's another HII out there. Something needs to save this season.

Edited April 9, 2015 by peachmangosteen

[scowl]

Apparently Probst called the winner 'iconic,' which makes me even more sure Mike wins.

 

Oh, that is not a good sign. Shut up, Probst!

[LadyChatts]

Apparently Probst called the winner 'iconic,' which makes me even more sure Mike wins. I mean I guess it's better than like most of the rest of them winning, but I still hate it.

 

There's an extra vid from this ep and Mike seems fairly sure that his HII is the BC one. First of all, Mike, why in the fuck did it take you 21 days to look for it? Also, do we think they also hid one for the merged tribe or no? I almost hope there's another HII out there. Something needs to save this season.

 

Iconic?  Oh for the love of...I wonder if they were just so excited that a blue collar, representing middle America, the 'people who follow the rules and made this country from their bare hands' beats out a white collar professional and what they think will be viewed as the leech on society, the no collars.  I'm sure they didn't anticipate the blues not being very popular.  It's actually depressing that that is what we have to represent the working class.  

 

So if Mike found the blue collar idol, does he realize that obviously isn't the clue for the merge idol?  At least I'm assuming it wasn't the merge idol.  It didn't seem to fit with the clue description, and the other camp idols were found in trees.  I'm hoping that the merge idol is still out there, Joe finds it, and that's the "game changing moment" described by Probst.  Otherwise, all I can think of that he meant by that is Mike uses his idol to avoid a blindside and goes to the end.  Hey, it's a game changer!  He would have been voted off and now he's won (speculation on that part obviously, but I'm leaning more and more towards that).  Yeah, been there, done that.  Saving yourself with an idol isn't the game changer it once was.  All it means is we're stuck with Mike and his minion Dan another week if that happens.

[peachmangosteen]

Iconic?  Oh for the love of...I wonder if they were just so excited that a blue collar, representing middle America, the 'people who follow the rules and made this country from their bare hands' beats out a white collar professional and what they think will be viewed as the leech on society, the no collars.  I'm sure they didn't anticipate the blues not being very popular.

 

This makes a lot of sense actually. Probst loves BC type people and despises people who are smarter than him (for the most part). I suspect you're right that he/Production thought BC was going to be more popular than they are. But at the same time, like what kind of idiots do they have to be to think that? They gave most of BC terrible edits while they gave Joe/Jenn/Hali/Shirin great edits. Very strange.

 

If there is a merge HII I don't know if I want Joe to find it. After watching the extra vids from this week, I actually think his gameplay is sorta terrible. But still, I'd rather see him win than Mike/Dan/Rodney/Tyler/Carolyn and Shirin/Jenn probably have zero chance of winning, so on second thought I guess I do want him to find it!

Edited April 9, 2015 by peachmangosteen

[KimberStormer]

It's been very clear from the first episode that Probst is Team Blue Collar all the way.  And it makes sense.  He's like those newspaper columnists who live in the city and would never leave it but always talk about rural heartland people being the only Real Americans.  For example, I don't think he's religious, but he went to town hyping Lisa Welchel's Christianity even when she asked him (in so many words) not to, because he thinks that makes her a Real American.  He's hardly the only person in the country who thinks like this, but of course it's annoying.

 

But I figured, his attitude was there at the start, before he knew who would win, so it didn't have any bearing on that.  But the edit is done backwards, knowing what is to come, and the edit (until this episode) seemed to be indicating that the Blue Collar tribe is a bunch of terrible people (with somewhat less terrible Sierra and Mike.)  But now, I don't know, it seems more like they're editing the rest of Blue Collar that way to make Mike look better.  Ughhh

[LadyChatts]

Mike never really got a horrible edit.  I mean, when he's up against Rodney, Dan, and even Lindsey the loud mouth who attacked his religion, you didn't have to do much to look good.  He certainly wasn't perfect.  But I've seen his edit getting better and better as the season has progressed.  Now even though he's in the majority alliance, he still feels on the outs, he found the idol and cried about it, and he will likely down the road be the first to un-seat his rival Joe (just a hunch I have with how this is going, but I certainly hope I'm wrong).  And I fully believe he'll be the one that takes charge of the game, gets rid of Rodney, and goes to the end with Dan and either Sierra or Tyler.  There's been too much on the show about a blue collar winning, just from that tribe alone, so I feel that we may in fact get an all blue final 3.  Which is really depressing.  

 

ETA: Here's Jeff's 'tease' for next week.  

http://www.ew.com/article/2015/04/08/survivor-host-jeff-probst-latest-worlds-apart-episode

 

Okay, give us a tease for next week, sir.

To get to the end, so many things have to go your way. When they don’t, it’s desperate times… desperate measures. Another great episode coming your way!

 

 

So I guess that translates to another boring and predictable episode.  Since Jeff is filming in Cambodia right now, I wonder if he's getting much of the reaction to this season at all.

Edited April 9, 2015 by LadyChatts

[ljenkins782]

 

Also Probst says this is the bestest season of Survivor ever, so that means either Mike or Rodney will win.

Mike maybe, but there's no way Probst likes Rodney. He's always seemed biased toward strong men, but not clear jackasses. Rodney's cut from the Fairplay cloth, maybe valuable to Probst/producers because he's good TV, but not someone that anyone likes on a personal level. And he's not a Hatch type villain, he's just a basic meathead and his edit is setting him for a hard fall. 

[pennben]

Okay, I just have to believe that them showing Dan being so obnoxious to/about Shirin and calling her an idiot, telling her her game is over, means that he is the idiot and she outlasts him. Right?  That has to happen for any satisfactory conclusion to that repulsive behavior being allowed on the show.  I'm clinging to that (even though I think of Russell and how the only comeuppance he got for his repulsive behavior to others came in the form of him being denied a win).  Sigh.

[scowl]

Mike maybe, but there's no way Probst likes Rodney. He's always seemed biased toward strong men, but not clear jackasses. Rodney's cut from the Fairplay cloth, maybe valuable to Probst/producers because he's good TV, but not someone that anyone likes on a personal level. And he's not a Hatch type villain, he's just a basic meathead and his edit is setting him for a hard fall. 

 

Jeff doesn't have to like a contestant to admit they're great for Survivor. Jeff has said that while Fairplay is certainly a jackass (using that word specifically) he also said:

 

 

It was actually fun to work with Fairplay on the show because he’s a producer’s dream. When he shows up drunk or flips somebody off, he’s bringing you gold every time. I wish we had a Jonny Fairplay every season.

 

If Rodney wins this season, he would have no choice but to make him seem like a dream winner. He'd also have to double his botox injections to keep a straight face during the reunion. 

[Lantern7]

Probst emphasized Joe winning three straight individual challenges in last night's episode. What if he manages to stay in the game to win? He looks dreamy enough for Probst to mancrush on him. As bad as that could be, it beats the prospect of Mike or Rodney winning.

[Bubbetv]

I would love to see the new twist put them back onto separate tribes, forcing the bust up of the big alliance again...and because they're forced to vote each other off, putting enough resentment into the jury to actually vote a NC winner.

[LadyChatts]

Press Release:

ONE CASTAWAY CREATES A FAKE IDOL AND CRAFTS A PLAN TO PREVENT BEING ELIMINATED, ON "SURVIVOR," WEDNESDAY, APRIL 15

"Livin' On The Edge" – One castaway breaks out their arts and crafts skills to create a fake idol and makes a plan to prevent being eliminated, on SURVIVOR, Wednesday, April 15 (8:00-9:00 PM, ET/PT) on the CBS Television Network.

 

 

Next week's episode, titled 'Livin' on the Edge'.  Given how Mike acted this past episode, I'm thinking that quote might apply to him.

 

Since Joe is the resident artist, could the fake idol be his doing?  And if that's the case, I guess that pretty much gives away the fact that he loses the IC.  Or is the fake idol one he plants on him so people believe that he has it.  I just hope, if Mike is the culprit, that anyone but the 3 NC (I'm including Shirin as part of the 3 at this point) finds it.  They've suffered enough, and as one of their fans, so have I.  Throw me this one at least!  Mike made such an issue being targeted this week, so I wonder if he's the one behind it.  Since Joe is an artist, he could probably make one look more believable than someone else.  

Edited April 10, 2015 by LadyChatts

[pennben]

Oh, shit.  Dan is from the same town (I think, at least same area, Bob showed up at Dan's viewing party recently) as Bob Crowley, master fake idol-maker extraordinaire.  Since this season is starting to disappoint me, I can see him copying that idea.  Please, god, let me be wrong. 

Edited April 10, 2015 by pennben

[LadyChatts]

Funny how Dan didn't even enter my mind as being clever enough to pull something off like that.  It could be him since he saw his name come up over and over again this past week.  Even though it would have been more worth it if he actually got voted off, it did warm my heart just a little to see him sweating there, thinking maybe it was him.  So that could make sense.  I feel like if it were Joe, that basically gives away next week.  Still, I don't know if Dan could pull it off.  Unless he took lessons with Bob early on.  He's been a fan forever, so I wouldn't be surprised if their paths crossed at some point.  And given that most fake idols were crappy, yet still played (Eliza's "It's just a f****** stick' goes down in history as the best fake idol ruse ever) maybe if he got someone gullible enough.  If it is Dan, I hope it doesn't work.  Seriously, the last I want is to see that cocky ass smirk return to his face.  Why do you toy with me show?

[wonald]

Joe's profession on screen is "Jewelry Maker". It's obviously Joe.  The title quote is probably his too.

[LadyChatts]

So my theory is Joe loses immunity next week, and gets voted off.  Or Jenn, but I'm pegging one of those two ends up leaving.  Leaving 2 of the NC alliance left.  He may create a fake idol, but Mike may out him because he has the real one.  Why risk people not voting for Joe if they think he'll save himself.  The "big, game changing" move Probst promised us probably happens the week after, when, if anyone is going to flip, finally does.  Either that, or Mike plays his idol, blindsiding Rodney's alliance that decided to finally make their move instead of waiting, and Mike's group votes off Carolyn or Will (I don't see him targeting Tyler, especially since Tyler spilled the idol clue to him).  Rodney's left with a befuddled look on his face at tribal, wondering how his perfect plan went so wrong again.  No one wants to play with Rodney anymore, so alliances are in shambles, Mike takes the reign, the blues all join back together, the rest can't recover and are outnumbered, and Mike coasts to the final 3.  

 

Maybe the big twist this season is if someone plays a fake idol that they believe is real, the producers decide to give them the last laugh and honor it as valid.  Probst mentioned something about having to think about how the twist would impact the game, and the reason they held off on it was because they didn't think it would be a good move in another particular season.  Which always translated to me that one of his man-crushes was about to get voted off, so they throw him a life preserver and assist him in getting to the end.  If it's Joe, I certainly wouldn't complain :)  Or Jenn, if they to decide to save what was once the happy, funny, snarky free spirit this season and give her new life.  Give that the finale is a little over a month away, something has to be happening.  It is way too predictable the way things are going now.

Edited April 10, 2015 by LadyChatts

[peachmangosteen]

From the latest episode thread:
 

As it is, I think the only chance the remaining NC+Shirin have is when it gets down to F9 or F8.  If anyone believes they're on the wrong side of an internal 4-3 split within BC+WC, they might pull a NC or Shirin in.

You might be on to something here. I could see Joe going next, after he finally loses an IC, and then I can see Mike using Jenn/Shirin to flip on Tyler/Carolyn. It would probably be the 'game changing move' Probst mentioned and would solidify Mike as the winner.

 

I was told by a mod that episode descriptions are actually spoilers, so I'm going to respond to it in the spoiler thread.

[riley702]

Episode descriptions released by the network? I thought once things were aired/published, they were fair game. I know that you aren't supposed to discuss previews in the previous episode thread.

[LadyChatts]

Episode descriptions released by the network? I thought once things were aired/published, they were fair game. I know that you aren't supposed to discuss previews in the previous episode thread.

 

Yeah, that part confused me as well.  I figured if it was out for anyone to see it would at least fall more into speculation than anything.  I did debate whether the press release was too spoiler-y, so I hesitated where to put it.  Good to know, though!

Edited April 10, 2015 by LadyChatts

[SlackerInc]

Although I still weirdly have the feeling Shirin might win. I have no idea how it would happen, but her edit intrigues me.

 

I've been trying to game out any possible path for my beloved Shirin to win, and I think I've come up with one longshot possibility, though it is a scary one: she teams up with Rodney and Dan to go to F3. It's one of the rare scenarios that's in all three of their interests, because none of them (IMO) has any chance whatsoever of winning except in this exact configuration. So each of the three would see the other two as goats (with some reason, but someone's got to win). Of course, this risks the possibility of the odious Dan or Rodney winning; but I think they'd split the "dude" faction and Shirin would have a good shot.

 

Okay, I just have to believe that them showing Dan being so obnoxious to/about Shirin and calling her an idiot, telling her her game is over, means that he is the idiot and she outlasts him. Right?  That has to happen for any satisfactory conclusion to that repulsive behavior being allowed on the show.  I'm clinging to that (even though I think of Russell and how the only comeuppance he got for his repulsive behavior to others came in the form of him being denied a win).  Sigh.

 

Aside from my longshot fantasy above where Shirin actually wins, my slightly more realistic wish is that she at least outlasts Dan.  Please, please, please...

[peachmangosteen]

This is what I was told by the mod about episode descriptions: "I consulted and the consensus is that future episode descriptions should be spoiler tagged, or if you are not spoiler-free, you can discuss at will in the Spoiler thread."

[Lantern7]

My fantasy with Shirin involves her winning it all. Once Probst announces the deciding vote, Shirin runs . . .not to her family in the audience, but directly at Rodney, yelling, "What's my name?!? WHAT'S MY NAME?!?"

[NutMeg]

I consulted and the consensus is that future episode descriptions should be spoiler tagged, or if you are not spoiler-free, you can discuss at will in the Spoiler thread.

 

(bolding above mine) I understand it as if you ARE spoiler free, maybe the Speculation thread could then be ok. Can we have a confirmation from a mod about this?   

 

My fantasy with Shirin involves her winning it all. Once Probst announces the deciding vote, Shirin runs . . .not to her family in the audience, but directly at Rodney, yelling, "What's my name?!? WHAT'S MY NAME?!?"

 

Would hate this!!! That would mean she's turning into Rodney light, i.e. playing by his rules and acting as he would. But that's not who she is nor who she should be.

[peachmangosteen]

(bolding above mine) I understand it as if you ARE spoiler free, maybe the Speculation thread could then be ok. Can we have a confirmation from a mod about this?

 

The mod said you can discuss the episode descriptions in this thread as long as they're spoiler tagged.

 

Quotes from the ep thread:

[sierra's] just bidding time till she can make a move on the BC boys.

 

When does she think this is gonna happen? Once she's voted out everyone but the BC assholes and has no one to help her get rid of them? The editing is really awful this season, so I guess it's possible Sierra is talking to Will/Tyler/Carolyn and has been laying some groundwork to join them once NC+Shirin are gone, but it really doesn't look like it at all. From what we're being show, Sierra acts like she's gonna flip on BC to the minority alliance and then does as she's told by Mike while spending no time at all with T/C/W. Sierra is maybe the most disappointing player to me. Her and Joe. I thought they were gonna be so much better than they've turned out to be.

 

Tyler and Carolyn are the secret couple ...

 

I wonder if they really are? I have to assume the editing is misleading there and that in actuality everyone knows they are together. Didn't Hali even say that she figured Tyler didn't vote with them because Carolyn didn't want to? I imagine Shirin at least knows they're a pair and probably told at least Hali/Jenn.

 

I think that will actually end up being the 'game changing move' Probst referred to; Mike will blindside Tyler/Carolyn (and Rodney/Will).

Edited April 11, 2015 by peachmangosteen

[peachmangosteen]

After 2 NC are gone, she needs to get Tyler, Carolyn, and the surviving 2 NC, for a 5 vs 4 majority.

If Joe loses the IC this week and is booted, I could maybe see Sierra trying to get Jenn/Shirin/Tyler/Carolyn together to go after Dan or Rodney. They really should go for Mike, but they don't seem to be reading the dynamics well enough to see he's the leader/biggest threat and/or they just like him and hate the others and are letting that affect their decisions. Anyway, even if that happens, I have little hope that Carolyn will go for it. She hates Jenn/Shirin and seems to be letting that dictate her choices. And Tyler seems to just follow Carolyn. So ultimately I think Sierra would just do whatever Mike does again because she would realize she doesn't have the numbers.

Edited April 11, 2015 by peachmangosteen

[hyukx3]

Why Carolyn hates Jenn and Shirin?

[peachmangosteen]

Who knows! I personally think she has some issues with younger women, but that's just me armchair psychologist-ing it.

Edited April 11, 2015 by peachmangosteen

[NutMeg]

I knew we like loyal people and such (or I should say when they are loyal to an alliance we like), but if I were any of Joe/Jenn/Shirin, I'd be all "ok, let's all try and sell our vote individually to anyone who will buy, if possible we'll try to keep each other out here, if we cannot well, let's wish good luck to those who survive and if one of us make it to FTC we vote for that person". 

 

I mean at this point they are starting to behaving very much like LaMina with that bound-for-the-slaughterehouse mentality. If you're a minority that cannot survive as a group, at least do something to survive individually! If you all do it right, you could even all survive. If you don't all survive, chances are if YOU do, you might win it all (Danni in Guatemala being the best example to spring to mind).

[peachmangosteen]

I think Joe is somewhat doing that. He's not playing very well, but he seems to have distanced himself from Jenn/Hali/Shirin almost immediately after the merge. But he mostly seems to just be playing a 'I'll try to win every IC until the end and if I don't well it is what it is' game. Very passive strategy from him, but he is pretty screwed since everyone, including his alliance, wants him gone because he's the biggest threat.

 

The women in his alliance were apparently ready to take him out, too, so they sorta distanced themselves from him as well.

 

But I think Jenn/Shirin should stick together and try to sell themselves as two votes to take out whoever Tyler/Carolyn/Sierra want.

Edited April 11, 2015 by peachmangosteen

[hyukx3]

I don't know where you get the impression that the girl's are distancing themselves from Joe. Every NC is primed to get picked off. They don't have the luxury to view Joe as a threat. Elimination is looming upon them all.

[LadyChatts]

Hali said that if Joe lost immunity, they wouldn't hesitate to vote him off.  She said the 'girls alliance' which I don't believe is a real thing, but everyone would have voted for Joe.  No one wants to go up against him in the final 3.  However, I'm thinking their logic is if Joe is gone, maybe that will take the heat off of them and give them more room to either slide under the radar or negotiate.  In a video I posted in Jenn's thread, she mentioned that Joe seems to be being friends with whoever he needed to be friends with, wasn't giving his alliance much attention, and she mentioned he was screwing the game up for everyone.  The NC obviously thought they had people on their side this week, and I do question without Carolyn around, if Tyler would have flipped.  That seems to be argument Hali made, that Carolyn didn't like them so Tyler wouldn't flip.  I don't know if it has more to do with the actual NC, or Shirin.  Sierra is just full of a lot of hot air this point.  Maybe that's her strategy, to say she was playing both sides but stayed loyal.  The BC mole.  I still hope she loses, unless she does something significant, because right now she'd be a pretty crappy winner.  But who left wouldn't be at this point.  

 

I think that will actually end up being the 'game changing move' Probst referred to; Mike will blindside Tyler/Carolyn (and Rodney/Will).

 

 

That's what I'm thinking, which really isn't that big of a deal.  I guess it could be a game changer, but been there, done that.  I'm thinking that either all the NC alliance is picked off, or down to 1 person, and that's when Rodney goes after Mike.  Mike will play the idol and break up Tyler/Carolyn, and I see Rodney going back to his blues.  

Edited April 11, 2015 by LadyChatts

[hyukx3]

Ohhh, I didn't realized that. I'm not gonna watch every confessional videos, interviews, like some selected previous seasons.

[Wings]

Thanks LadyChats.  I haven't had the time to look at those scenes. Joe is not playing well (understatement).  Too bad, I like him; he seems like a good kid.  

[Hera]

[About Sierra voting against Blue Collar]

When does she think this is gonna happen? Once she's voted out everyone but the BC assholes and has no one to help her get rid of them? The editing is really awful this season, so I guess it's possible Sierra is talking to Will/Tyler/Carolyn and has been laying some groundwork to join them once NC+Shirin are gone, but it really doesn't look like it at all. From what we're being show, Sierra acts like she's gonna flip on BC to the minority alliance and then does as she's told by Mike while spending no time at all with T/C/W.

This happens so often and it baffles me every time. All I can come up with is that Sierra (and people who similarly let time make their strategy decisions for them) has overestimated the risks of making a move versus staying the course. If she flips, she's trading her safe, low-key position for one that will make her a target. Of course, if she does it right, then she takes control of the game and can get further than she would with her current strategy, but it requires her to stick her neck out—she may make people mad and be confronted by Dan again. I think inertia can be pretty powerful in keeping people from rocking the boat, especially if they don't feel like they're in danger or going to be in danger any time soon.

[Alapaki]

I think there are several structural impediments to breaking up the BC/WC 7 from outside at this point.  But, from Sierra's perspective on the inside, she's probably figuring that BC has got several potential goats (who also have the benefit of probably thinking they want to go up against a puny girl in FTC).

 

I think if I were Sierra, sitting next to some combination of Dan/Rodney/Mike (depending on F2 or F3) at FTC is not the worst outcome.  People have won $1million with weaker arguments than "I played under the radar . . . and those guys are assholes."

[enlightenedbum]

As I said in the episode thread, it was realistically two tribal councils too early for Sierra to make that move.  If she jumps, she's part of an alliance of six with a core three of no collars.  Basically for her it's a trade of probably fourth right now for at best fourth and thus unappealing beyond getting rid of an asshole.  If she doesn't go against the bros at nine is when I start saying she's overestimating the risk of doing nothing.

Edited April 15, 2015 by enlightenedbum

[LadyChatts]

Sierra's own logic of taking undesirable people to the end may be the very thing that winds up getting her booted.  She wants to take unlikable people to the end and argue she was not only loyal to them, but nicer than they were to the jury (I don't know what other argument she will have, although we'll see in the coming weeks).  But what if she is booted for being deemed too nice and likable?  I can't fault her for being dealt the cards she was, and if she believes that's her best chance at the million, then who am I to judge.  Even if it makes for a boring season and her a forgettable follower, ultimately she may be laughing all the way to the bank, not caring how she won it.  Hey, it is a million bucks after all.  However, assuming Jenn/Shirin do get voted off and she doesn't flip, I'll be curious where that leaves her.  Carolyn was apparently playing mom to Will and Rodney, and was close to them.  Would she flip on them, especially if they seemed the perfect final 3 partners?  Will doesn't seem like he would flip on Rodney at least, and Tyler appears to remain loyal to Carolyn at this juncture.  

 

Assuming Rodney's plan to blindside Mike's alliance worked, that would leave her in the minority and probably no chance to recover other than to win immunity.  It's all about risks, but if Hali was being sincere about taking out Joe and wanting to work with the girls (and possibly Mike), Sierra might have been better off flipping.  Right now I don't think there's anything sly or sneaky about her strategy.  Nor do I think she ever would have flipped on her blues before, despite what some of her confessionals said.  That was probably all a red herring on her/the editors end.  Perhaps it is part of a winner's angle, to make her seem like she was playing both sides and being sneaky, when in reality she was doing no such thing.  I'm still saying Mike has the best chance of winning this if he makes it to the end.  That could be why so much is being left out about the bonds he's formed out there outside of his alliance, to make it less obvious.

Edited April 15, 2015 by LadyChatts

[Alapaki]

Sierra's own logic of taking undesirable people to the end may be the very thing that winds up getting her booted.  She wants to take unlikable people to the end and argue she was not only loyal to them, but nicer than they were to the jury (I don't know what other argument she will have, although we'll see in the coming weeks).  But what if she is booted for being deemed too nice and likable?

 

 

I think that if Sierra's plan is to ride Dan and Rodney to F3 she may not have that problem.  

 

Taking those two has 3 advantages that I can see:

 

1) They are both the two most unlikely to vote to give $1 Million to someone with a uterus, so she might as well keep them off the jury;

2)  If she sends Dan to the jury, he'll consider that a "flip", and then in order to avoid the cognitive dissonance he can't vote for her because "flippers don't win"; and

3)  They both probably believe that Sierra would be the goat in that scenario (why would anyone give her money when there are two such manly men manning it up?)

 

I agree with enlightenedbum that it's probably too early for any of the BC/WC 7 to make a move.  Much as I dislike almost all of them personally, I think they're all playing rationally up to this point, with the possible exception of Will, who I still can't figure out.