Ratings and Scheduling: Hail to the Gods

[statsgirl]

Yes.  :-D

I can join in the posting while the episode is on.

[BkWurm1]

???

Very glad to hear!

[Starfish35]

Last but not least:

Guess the ratings for the Arrow Season 6 premiere

-----

Things to consider: 

• Arrow Season 5 premiered with a 0.7, but the ratings for the last four episodes were 0.5, 0.6, 0.5, and 0.6.
• Arrow is moving from the Wednesday 8:00pm timeslot it's been in for the last five seasons to Thursday at 9:00, following Supernatural (in its 13th season!!!).
• Per final ratings, both The Flash and Legends of Tomorrow returned right at their previous season finale numbers in the demo, while Supergirl was down a tenth from its finale.
• The, um, interesting approach the CW has used to promote the upcoming season. (Will it hurt, help, or have no effect?

-----

Ratings Sources:

Arrow Season 5 ratings at SpottedRatings.com

Arrow Season 5 ratings at TVSeriesFinale.com

[BkWurm1]

I picked .06 cause I want Arrow to beat Supergirl but I'm really expecting .05.

[Starfish35]

Yeah, I picked 0.5, although I almost went with an 0.4, due to the move and the weird promotion. 

[Angel12d]

IDK what to choose. I don't think promo will help this show one way or the other now, even though it's been super annoying. I think the viewers are going to be pretty steady tbh. That said, will they get some leftover Supernatural viewers to bump ratings up a bit? It's possible. 

Edited October 11, 2017 by Angel12d

[catrox14]

4 minutes ago, Angel12d said:

IDK what to choose. I don't think promo will help this show one way or the other now, even though it's been super annoying. I think the viewers are going to be pretty steady tbh. That said, will they get some leftover Supernatural viewers to bump ratings up a bit? It's possible. 

I think they will if the premiere is not completely off putting LOL

[Angel12d]

Whatever way it goes, I'm looking forward to all the claims. If the ratings are bad it'll be because the

Spoiler

Olicity wedding

pics leaked but if the ratings are good it'll be because the promo was all about BS and BC. ? ? ?

[LeighAn]

If Arrow gets poor premiere ratings I will personally blame Black Siren/Katie Cassidy,  cause even though that is not how ratings work like at all I was promised tens of millions of viewers would tune in to watch Black Siren according to her fans on twitter so I'm holding them to that. So I voted 0.9 or greater :P 

[bijoux]

I wondered who that one optimistic vote came from. 

[LeighAn]

2 minutes ago, bijoux said:

I wondered who that one optimistic vote came from. 

Reddit only speaks the truth.

[Morrigan2575]

I'm saying both SPN and Arrow will get a 0.6

[leopardprint]

I voted .5 because I think they may have hit their floor but I wouldn't be surprised if it's .4 because I think regular viewers may be confused by schedule change. I think 602 may be more informative.  Also I feel like Supernatural and the Flarrowverse don't have a lot of audience overlap for some reason. 

55 minutes ago, LeighAn said:

If Arrow gets poor premiere ratings I will personally blame Black Siren/Katie Cassidy,  cause even though that is not how ratings work like at all I was promised tens of millions of viewers would tune in to watch Black Siren according to her fans on twitter so I'm holding them to that. So I voted 0.9 or greater :P 

Ok but then I get to blame it on Myson. ??

Edited October 11, 2017 by leopardprint

[quarks]

I hate predicting ratings, especially in this situation, with so many opposing factors:

1. Move to a new night (sometimes moving to a new night brings in additional viewers. And sometimes the move loses viewers. Not every show enjoys the loyalty of Supernatural fans.)

2. The 9 PM Thursday timeslot (the CW has a history of struggling in this timeslot, presumably one reason they put Arrow, which is already profitable, there, instead of trying a Riverdale/Dynasty match on Thursday)

3. The NFL (Arrow has a history of struggling against the World Series and the NBA, and there's no real reason to think that the NFL will be different.)

4. Promo focusing on KC/Laurel (associated with drops in live numbers in previous seasons)

5. Promo focusing on Slade (mixed - Slade is a fan favorite, but that popularity hasn't always been reflected in the numbers)

6. Promo including the kid (the kid hasn't been in enough episodes to really establish a trend one way or another, but he is associated with one of Arrow's least popular storylines)

7. An episode following a positive Olicity episode (that is, an episode suggesting that Oliver/Felicity will get together/stay together, usually but not always associated with rises in the live numbers, though it's a weak trend.)

What I will say, however, is that given the CW's history of struggling in this timeslot with any show not called "Supernatural," anything near or over .3 in the demo and 1.1 in the viewers will be good news for the CW.

[lemotomato]

Whatever the ratings turn out to be, I'm dreading the blame game on Friday.

[EmilyBettFan]

If the ratings suck I'm blaming most of it on BS and some for BC and myson. Which 5 out of like 7 promos were of BS. So stupid. They really don't know how to promote.

Olicity/OTA fans do way better.

[insomniadreams88]

All I know is I don’t want to see any tweets from MG regarding ratings. That’s all I ask. (I may still be slightly bitter about that tweet of his last season.)

[tv echo]

I think the biggest factor will be the competition on Thursdays at 9pm (ET). Arrow is up against Thursday Night Football, The Orville, Will & Grace, and Scandal.

In terms of live watching, a lot of people may choose to record Arrow and watch another show live. For example, football is something that is usually watched live. Also, when real life is depressing, I think that some people may gravitate toward lighter entertainment (like comedies).

If Arrow ratings are down, you can argue both ways. If Arrow ratings are up, you can argue both ways. No one really knows.

[quarks]

15 hours ago, lemotomato said:

Whatever the ratings turn out to be, I'm dreading the blame game on Friday.

The blame or credit game, whatever the ratings, is inevitable.  I just mostly wanted to note that in this particular case, the CW may very well have a different reaction to any ups or downs, given their previous history in that timeslot.  And of course, there's the important note that this is just one week (this also holds true for Supergirl, Flash and Legends of Tomorrow). I don't know any network or studio that makes major decisions based on just one episode, barring a situation where a popular/known guest star/character was associated with a bump in numbers - as we saw on Arrow when Vixen showed up for an episode, leading WB and the CW to decide to add her to Legends of Tomorrow. Though, even then, that decision was also presumably based on how well Vixen did on CW Seed.

There's also one more important factor here in terms of U.S. revenue: streaming.  As per Amazon as of this morning, the most popular season pass streaming purchases for CW shows are, in order: Arrow, Supernatural, Riverdale, America's Next Top Model [before anyone asks, because I did, this seems to be because previous seasons of America's Next Top Model were just added to Amazon Prime, so ignore this], and then Flash.   iTunes has basically the same: Arrow, Supernatural, Riverdale, Legends of Tomorrow, Flash, Supergirl. 

I don't have hard numbers in terms of exact sales on this, but I can at least say that more Arrow viewers than Flash viewers are choosing to stream their respective shows on Amazon or iTunes - something that WB will also be looking at. Without seeing the specific WB/Amazon contract, it's impossible to be sure, but assuming that the contracts are somewhat similar to Disney/Viacom and other WB shows, I think it's fairly safe to say that Arrow is earning somewhere around 68/69 cents per purchased episode (for episodes purchased with a streaming pass) to 80 cents per episode (per individual episode); dropping to about 30 cents per episode for passes for earlier seasons. (And probably about 4 to 6 cents per episode for America's Next Top Model, if you were curious.)

The CW shows are also available on Hulu and the CW app, though there it's not at all clear (at least right now) which shows are getting streamed the most. Both of these are almost certainly bringing in less revenue than Amazon or iTunes, given their revenue models - let's say about 4 to 5 cents per streamed episode, which certainly doesn't sound like much, but presumably adds up.  

This is something MG addressed directly on Tumblr and in interviews last year, and was presumably why he and the CW in general seemed so blase with Arrow last year - in contrast to Flash - even though Flash was still beating Arrow in the ratings and didn't have the same GASP percentage fall that Arrow or Supergirl did. Both Flash and Supergirl did some internal shakeups, with Flash firing several writers and Supergirl doing some showrunner/writer shifting (and pulling Mon-El out of a center focus for at least one episode, even if the character is clearly staying with the show.) Arrow and Legends of Tomorrow didn't - in fact, Arrow pretty much doubled down on previous decisions (bringing KC/Laurel back for limited episodes for another season, keeping Willa Holland/Thea on limited episodes for another season, for instance) and pretty much kept the writing staff that hadn't already drifted off to Legends of Tomorrow.  The promo showed this, too - Flash got all kinds of "WE'RE GOING BACK TO THE FIRST SEASON, I PROMISE" and Arrow got "Eh, here's another Black Canary/Black Siren fight, much like the one you saw last season finale. Oh, and Slade! You guys liked Slade, right? Second season?"

And why? Because what the WB/CW/CBS are interested in is not Nielsen ratings, but overall revenue. Unlike the other DC Universe shows, Arrow hasn't lost viewers - they are just choosing to watch the show on different platforms. The networks don't really care where the revenue comes from; they just care that it arrives.

This is why I kept repeating last season that Arrow wasn't the CW's biggest concern. That was Flash, which did bleed actual viewers last season - and, alarmingly, started dropping below Arrow on a season 3 to season 3 comparison, despite soundly beating Arrow in previous season to season comparisons.  And the main problem that since Flash, the CW really hasn't had a new hit. Arrow is profitable - it does very well on streaming services, it continues to sell DVD/Blu-Rays, and it does well with international licensiing. And although I certainly would argue that DC is slipping up here a bit, it moves merchandise, which is something probable new parent company AT&T is going to be very interested in, given the increased importance of ancillary merchandise revenue in an era of dropping DVD/Blu-Ray sales. 

Add in the shift to a historically horrific timeslot for the CW and the competition from the NFL, and I'm very serious here - if Arrow drops to .3/1.1 viewers, or even below that, fans might freak out, but the CW should be fine.

[Kymmi]

Interesting to see Riverdale's ratings jump +60% from the premier last year.  I know my teen is obsessed, but wasn't sure that would show in traditional ratings.  Seems like they've done a lot of promotion for it this year.

[SmallScreenDiva]

55 minutes ago, quarks said:

The promo showed this, too - Flash got all kinds of "WE'RE GOING BACK TO THE FIRST SEASON, I PROMISE" and Arrow got "Eh, here's another Black Canary/Black Siren fight, much like the one you saw last season finale. Oh, and Slade! You guys liked Slade, right? Second season?"

So, are you saying Arrow doesn't give that much of a crap about ratings and that's why it was all BC/BS all the time during the hiatus? Or do they actually think people will tune in for these characters? It just seems like a really stupid strategy when nothing in the past has suggested these characters are actual draws. (Although MG did keep referring to 510 as the episode that made them bring KC back because people apparently got excited). 

[lemotomato]

1 hour ago, quarks said:

This is why I kept repeating last season that Arrow wasn't the CW's biggest concern. That was Flash, which did bleed actual viewers last season - and, alarmingly, started dropping below Arrow on a season 3 to season 3 comparison, despite soundly beating Arrow in previous season to season comparisons.

This is a total coincidence, but I was procrastinating on project yesterday and decided to chart the Arrow and Flash ratings just for kicks. It's fascinating how Flash started out significantly higher than Arrow in demo and viewers for 2 seasons then around 3.10 fell in line with Arrow's ratings for that same timepoint and followed every peak and valley ever since. Even their 401 ratings are virtually the same. Which I think is really interesting considering streaming wasn't as big of a deal when Arrow season 3 was airing (and I'm not sure season passes were even a thing yet). 

[quarks]

1 hour ago, SmallScreenDiva said:

So, are you saying Arrow doesn't give that much of a crap about ratings and that's why it was all BC/BS all the time during the hiatus? Or do they actually think people will tune in for these characters? It just seems like a really stupid strategy when nothing in the past has suggested these characters are actual draws. (Although MG did keep referring to 510 as the episode that made them bring KC back because people apparently got excited). 

I'm largely saying that Arrow doesn't give that much of a crap about ratings. Sure, in the extremely unlikely event that Arrow shocks us all and returns with a 1.5/4.0 tonight, I'm not saying that the CW will be disappointed. I am saying, however, that the network felt it wasn't worth spending money on trying to get the numbers back up there.

For what it's worth, it wasn't all BC/BS during the hiatus - in fact, most of the limited promo has focused on Oliver/William/Slade.  That BC/BS promo just stood out because Arrow hasn't been promoting anything very much.

31 minutes ago, lemotomato said:

This is a total coincidence, but I was procrastinating on project yesterday and decided to chart the Arrow and Flash ratings just for kicks. It's fascinating how Flash started out significantly higher than Arrow in demo and viewers for 2 seasons then around 3.10 fell in line with Arrow's ratings for that same timepoint and followed every peak and valley ever since. Even their 401 ratings are virtually the same. Which I think is really interesting considering streaming wasn't as big of a deal when Arrow season 3 was airing (and I'm not sure season passes were even a thing yet). 

 

And yeah, that's an excellent visual demonstration of why Flash last year was a bigger concern.

[Starfish35]

Ratings for the season premiere will be out soon; here is the results of the poll.

Edited October 13, 2017 by Starfish35

[apinknightmare]

[Starfish35]

I was too pessimistic. :) Looks like only Supergirl returned down.

[strikera0]

Wow, impressive ratings for Supernatural in it's 13th season! Arrow's demo ratings were on par with the season 5 finale, but down in viewers, I think. As for Supergirl, I suspect it's ratings might have taken a hit because many people in Chicago probably opted to watch MNF instead. It was Mitch Trubisky's first start as Chicago Bears' quarterback. 

[lemotomato]

The CW must be patting themselves on the back right now for moving Riverdale and Arrow. Two nights where they significantly raised the ratings for those time slots.

[lemotomato]

13 minutes ago, strikera0 said:

As for Supergirl, I suspect it's ratings might have taken a hit because many people in Chicago probably opted to watch MNF instead. It was Mitch Trubisky's first start as Chicago Bears' quarterback. 

I dunno... the Cubs were playing the deciding game of the NLDS last night (and it was a nailbiter until the end) and it didn't seem to affect Arrow at all.

Edited October 13, 2017 by lemotomato

[tv echo]

I was too pessimistic as well. I wonder if ratings will drop next week. I also wonder if ratings will go up after football season ends.

Other possible factors: Riverdale got the cover of EW's fall preview issue. And Supernatural got a special EW cover.

Edited October 13, 2017 by tv echo

[Angel12d]

I guessed a 0.6. Not to show off or anything but I'm really good at predicting the ratings...this week. ? ? ?

[strikera0]

11 minutes ago, lemotomato said:

I dunno... the Cubs were playing the deciding game of the NLDS last night (and it was a nailbiter until the end) and it didn't seem to affect Arrow at all.

Baseball has never had much of an effect on Arrow's ratings outside of the World Series. 

[Velocity23]

Well good thing for Arrow that the World Series games arent on Thursday. 

[Morrigan2575]

Damn, right on target for Arrow. Although, I underscored SPN. These two shows pair well, they always have. 

[JJ928]

Those ratings are better than I expected. I had guessed an 0.5. Considering the lack of promotiom, how lack luster the little promo we did get, along with a new time and night... it did decent.

[lemotomato]

The premiere made it into the top 5 Nielsen Social ratings.

For comparison purposes, season 5's premiere didn't.

[quarks]

38 minutes ago, lemotomato said:

The CW must be patting themselves on the back right now for moving Riverdale and Arrow. Two nights where they significantly raised the ratings for those time slots.

I'd say the reactions are probably more mixed.

As I said earlier, anything at a .3/1.1 or higher in that Thursday night time slot would be good news for the CW, given that everything not named Supernatural has bombed in that timeslot in the last few years, and Arrow easily earned that, which means sighs of relief all around. And I expect that yes, the CW is also relieved to see improvements in two timeslots.   

But this is not unmitigated good news. The CW has ten timeslots. As I noted on the other thread, this still means that the CW's top performing shows this season (Flash, Riverdale, Supernatural, Legends of Tomorrow) are under to well under the CW's top performing shows last season (Flash, Supergirl, Arrow/Legends of Tomorrow). With Riverdale not performing anywhere near where Arrow was in seasons 1-4, even after extensive promo, or where Supergirl was at the beginning of its second season. 

Meanwhile, Arrow came off a critically acclaimed season/finale, but lost viewers and dropped in the demo from last season's premiere. This admittedly fits the ongoing trend of a drop in live numbers every time Arrow focuses either an episode or promotion on Katie Cassidy/Laurel (and I'd still argue that no Arrow viewer was excited about the kid), but it's also possible that the combined move/NFL didn't help - which means that the CW lost numbers for its previous number two show, one essentially tied for third/fourth last season, without really gaining an equivalent number two show in return.  Also, although Supernatural slightly outperformed Legends of Tomorrow in the 8 pm timeslot (in viewers), Supernatural also has a legendary steady fanbase, meaning that it probably would have gotten about the same numbers in the 9 pm timeslot - where Arrow ended up slipping slightly from Supernatural's premiere numbers there last season.

All that said, the CW isn't really all that interested in ratings or live views, and it's just one week. 

[Velocity23]

CW Press release

Quote

FROM THE CW

As a multi-platform network, a big part of The CW’s audience watches us on delayed viewing and digital platforms. So these numbers will change significantly when complete viewing across all platforms is counted.

With that said, a strong return for Supernatural, in its 13th season and in a new time period.

Supernatural improved on the year ago time period (premiere of DC’s Legends of Tomorrow) by +15% in total viewers (2.1M), +20% in A18-34 (0.6/3), and +17% in A18-49 (0.7/3).

Supernatural was also up significantly versus last season’s finale, +24% in total viewers, +20% in A18-34, and +17% in A18-49. It was flat versus last season’s premiere in total viewers.

Supernatural ranked #3 (tie) in the 8-9pm hour in A18-34.

Arrow returned at a new night and time right on par with last season’s finale, and matching its season averages last season in both A18-34 (0.5/2) and A18-49 (0.6/2).

Last season both Supernatural and Arrow saw a large part of their viewing done on digital and delayed viewing platforms. Arrow averaged a 111% lift in 7-day delayed and digital viewing over its L+SD A18-49 rating, and Supernatural averaged a 97% increase last season.

http://programminginsider.com/ratings/eagles-victory-panthers-thursday-night-football-lifts-cbs-victory/

[Velocity23]

Final ratings

http://www.showbuzzdaily.com/articles/showbuzzdailys-top-150-thursday-cable-originals-network-finals-10-12-2017.html

Also SPN/Arrow were preempted in Columbus and only aired at 10 PM (SPN) and 11 PM (Arrow)

[tv echo]

‘Arrow’ Ratings Down In Return, ‘Grey’s Anatomy’ Steady, CBS Wins Night
by Dominic Patten  October 13, 2017 
http://deadline.com/2017/10/eagles-win-arrow-ratings-down-greys-anatomy-steady-thursday-night-football-nfl-cbs-1202187856/

Quote

The premieres are starting to peter out, but on a night of the NFL on CBS and a big MLB playoff game further up the dial, Supernatural (0.7/3) and Arrow (0.6/2) returned.

Now on at a new time for the former and new night for the archer latter, the Season 13 debut of Supernatural was down a tenth from its October 13, 2016 opener. Now facing football head-on, the Season 6 premiere “Fallout” episode of the Stephen Amell led series picked up after the explosive finale of last year. However, like its lead-in, Arrow was down a tenth from last year’s opener or 14% to get more specific. Not at all apples to apples, but the CW will be happy that as well as matching its Season 5 averages, Arrow was even with that May 24 S5 finale among adults 18-49.

Edited October 13, 2017 by tv echo

[SmallScreenDiva]

Deleted because of wrong info.

Edited October 13, 2017 by SmallScreenDiva

[Starfish35]

4 minutes ago, SmallScreenDiva said:

1.522 is a little more than half of last year's premiere viewership numbers, 3.07 million. And they had 4.10 from S4.

I'm seeing only 1.87 million for last year's premiere, and 2.67 million for the Season 4 premiere.  I'm confused - I'm sorry!

Edited October 13, 2017 by Starfish35

[SmallScreenDiva]

3 minutes ago, Starfish35 said:

I'm seeing only 1.87 million for last year's premiere, and 2.67 million for the Season 4 premiere.  I'm confused - I'm sorry!

Ooops, sorry, you're absolutely right. I was looking at the wrong numbers. 

[LeighAn]

I'm ashamed of how I grossly overestimated Black Siren/KC stans gross over estimations of her being 'the saviour' for DCTV ?

 

But good job Arrow and excellent job Supernatural ?

[lemotomato]

23 minutes ago, LeighAn said:

I'm ashamed of how I grossly overestimated Black Siren/KC stans gross over estimations of her being 'the saviour' for DCTV ?

 

But good job Arrow and excellent job Supernatural ?

Apparently the news of the

Spoiler

impending Olicity wedding

cancels out all of KC/BS's show savior ability. Some actually think the 0.6 meant that Arrow flopped in the ratings.

[BunsenBurner]

Color me surprised that Arrow did so well considering they were up against Football, Baseball and Will and Grace, a new day and a new time.  I think it's great!

[tv echo]

THE CW TV RATINGS ARE DOWN: SUPERGIRL, ARROW, THE FLASH, SUPERNATURAL
Matt McGloin   Sat, 10/14/2017 
https://www.cosmicbooknews.com/cw-tv-ratings-are-down-supergirl-arrow-flash-supernatural

Quote

Following up on my article going over how Supergirl's ratings took a nosedive, now it's learned just about all of the CW DC shows ratings have fallen, but nowhere near the extent of Supergirl's 55%.

The Flash is down 15% from its Season 3 premiere.

Legends of Tomorrow is the same, so no change there.

The big surprise is probably with Arrow, which moved to Thursday nights following Supernatural, and saw a ratings decline of 14%. It was probably hoped that some of the Supernatural audience would have stuck around for Arrow and boosted the ratings. Actually, it's possible some of the Supernatural audience did stick around and kept Arrow's ratings declining even further. 

It should be noted that Supernatural's ratings are down from its premiere last year as well at -13%.
*  *  *
The other DC series are down as well:

Gotham is down 31%.

Lucifer is down 15%. 

Edited October 15, 2017 by tv echo

[Chaser]

I went back and looked at previous seasons and Arrow dropped in S3/S4 but rose in viewers in S5 for their second episode.

It will be interesting to see where things land this week.

[quarks]

Arrow 302 is a bit of an outlier, though - it aired right after a one-two-three punch of an Oliver/Felicity breakup (usually leading to a drop in the numbers), Sara's death (roundly criticized by fans), and promo focused on Laurel.  So I'm not sure if it's particularly useful indicator for this week's numbers. 

[tv echo]

The CW’s Big Fall Premiere Week: A Close Look at Viewer Behavior
By Eleanor Semeraro, Analyst and Contributor, TV[R]EV  Oct. 17, 2017
http://www.broadcastingcable.com/news/programming/cw-s-big-fall-premiere-week-close-look-viewer-behavior/169323

Quote

Last week was a big week for The CW, with the return of multiple hit shows including Supergirl, The Flash, DC’s Legends of Tomorrow, Riverdale, Arrow and Supernatural. B&C worked with Inscape.tv, the TV data company with glass-level information from 7 million smart TV screens and devices, to see how people have been consuming the latest installments of their favorite shows from the network.
*  *  *
Arrow Season 6 Premiere - Thursday, Oct. 12

For the most part viewership of the Arrow premiere held steady, with a slight increase by the end. And just like with other shows on The CW, those who watched one were likely to stick around and consume more on the channel, as seen in the graph below, which shows Supernatural viewers sticking around to watch Arrow. But, given that it was a Thursday night, some people were clicking back and forth between The CW and the NFL game on CBS/NFL Network.

 

 

Edited October 18, 2017 by tv echo