Ratings and Scheduling: Who's the fairest of them all?

[Free]

19 hours ago, Mathius said:

The BTS rumors that they want a complete Sunday night revamp are looking more likely to be true.  And again I must stress that they have already heard A&E's S7 pitch at this point.  A&E and Eduardo Castro have both confirmed that ABC still hasn't gotten back to them about it, and now we have this news.  I agree that they're waiting for the ratings to come in before making it official, but they, just like we, already know exactly how the ratings are most likely to look.  There is no incentive whatsoever to keep this show, so at this point let's just hope and prey that the series finale is decent.

I wouldn't be surprised, their regular Sunday drama lineup has been atrocious, not even moving Quantico helped, and this used to be a night they could top not too long ago.

[KingOfHearts]

I was curious to know how much to cost to make an episode of the show. From what I found via google, it's about $4.5 million per episode. That's of course a few years old (about around 4A), but that still sounded crazy to me. Robert Carlyle said it costs between $3 to $4 million for each one. For comparison, GoT has a budget of $8 million per episode.

[sharky]

I'm assuming that cost includes the cast salaries, which could be a big issue when you have to renegotiate with some of the cast for a S7. It also supports the reboot idea since a reboot would easily allow for characters to either be killed off or come back only in a guest role. 

Edited March 5, 2017 by sharky

[Camera One]

CGI, location shoots, new costumes, etc., I'm not surprised this show would be expensive, on top of the salaries for the cast, the writers, the directors, etc.

[Mathius]

7 hours ago, TheGreenKnight said:

Don't want to hear?? As I've said before, I think we all understand the position the show is in. I think some people are just excited by the possibility of cancellation and are going overboard. In case of cancellation, I hope we can be spared the "told you so" comments as if, again, we didn't already know the possibility was there; you didn't know any more or less than we did and you still don't.

Speak for yourself please.  There have been people both here and elsewhere on the internet that have been in firm denial the whole way through, behaving like S7 was a shoe-in, even if it was only a half-order of episodes, because there's no way it could just end in this disjointed season, that ABC has to give proper closure to the fans, that ratings aren't that bad, etc.  All failing to take into account that ratings aren't the only factor when it comes to cancellation and renewal these days, that ABC is not beholden to the fans' wants at all, and that A&E very well could screw the pooch by making S6 so disjointed without stopping to consider that it could be their last year (and that they'd likely make the same mistake with a S7 if they got it.)

Edited March 5, 2017 by Mathius

[orza]

33 minutes ago, KingOfHearts said:

I was curious to know how much to cost to make an episode of the show. From what I found via google, it's about $4.5 million per episode. That's of course a few years old (about around 4A), but that still sounded crazy to me. Robert Carlyle said it costs between $3 to $4 million for each one. For comparison, GoT has a budget of $8 million per episode.

$4.5 to $5 million per episode sounds about right. That is in line with industry norms. Even the average half-hour sitcom costs more than $3 million per episode. A big chunk of that is payroll. This show has about 200 people working on it. While the majority of those people only earn middle-class wages that still adds up to more than half a million dollars per episode for the crew. Executive producers, directors, some senior writers may earn almost as much or in some cases even more than some of the cast members. 

Yeah, this show costs more than $100 million per season to produce. With that kind of money in play the whole idea that the network would let the show runners just do their own thing and live out teenage fantasies for even one episode is ridiculous.

[Tiger]

23 hours ago, Mathius said:

The BTS rumors that they want a complete Sunday night revamp are looking more likely to be true.  And again I must stress that they have already heard A&E's S7 pitch at this point.  A&E and Eduardo Castro have both confirmed that ABC still hasn't gotten back to them about it, and now we have this news.  I agree that they're waiting for the ratings to come in before making it official, but they, just like we, already know exactly how the ratings are most likely to look.  There is no incentive whatsoever to keep this show, so at this point let's just hope and prey that the series finale is decent.

I think we're going to get a re-branding of the night as 'fun for the whole family' and some combination of comedies, gameshows, and/or reality.  

If ModFam does return then I think we'll see an hour of comedy, most likely Fresh & O'Neals, Shark Tank, and a gameshow rotation at 10.  Based on everything I'm hearing, I'm expecting something akin to:

Mon: Dancing/new drama

Tue: Middle/Housewife/Blackish/new comedy/Inhumans

Wed: Goldbergs/Speechless/ModFam/M&L/Designated

Thu: Greys/Scandal/Murder

Fri: Standing/new comedy/Carol Burnett/Ken/2020

Sun: AFV/Fresh/ONeals/Shark/Match

Edited March 5, 2017 by Tiger

[jjjmoss]

I do think there will be an hour of comedy on Sunday, but I do not think they would use those 2 shows if they're trying to build a night. I personally don't think O'Neals should even return with its sub-1 average.

[KingOfHearts]

Just wishful thinking, but it would be cool if an OUAT spinoff had more of a lighter tone. Not Galavant levels, but something that embraces the Disney culture a bit more. I'd like some wacky multiverse adventures. It could be a "realm of the week" sort of thing, where they go to different places to help characters find their happy endings. We could get cameos from all the OUAT characters, and expand the roster with some more obscure or original ones. 

Sadly, we'd probably be stuck with Red, Dorothy, Third Wheel and Merida. "Once Upon a Strong Female Lead(s)".

Edited March 5, 2017 by KingOfHearts

[cappoe]

TVGrimReaper said on Twitter that ABC has already made all their decisions well before now. And with the contract drama, the complete rebooting of the show, the backlash from it, and now Eddy begging fans for a S7. I think we have our answer. The show is over.

And the fault is completely on the writers. I honestly think that if they planned a final farewell season with the whole cast for S7, most if not all cast would have stayed. But instead they wanted to do a reboot and go on for multiple years with little to none of the cast we fell in love with.

Nah it's a hard pass on me. I'm thankful the show is ending with the characters I fell in love with.

[Souris]

11 minutes ago, cappoe said:

TVGrimReaper said on Twitter that ABC has already made all their decisions well before now.

Technically, he said many/maybe most decisions have been made already.

I was a bit surprised he had Once's renewal percentage down to 65%. He had seemed to be more gung-ho about renewal.

And yes, if the show is canceled, it is 100% the fault of A&E.

[Free]

27 minutes ago, KingOfHearts said:

Just wishful thinking, but it would be cool if an OUAT spinoff had more of a lighter tone. Not Galavant levels, but something that embraces the Disney culture a bit more. I'd like some wacky multiverse adventures. It could be a "realm of the week" sort of thing, where they go to different places to help characters find their happy endings. We could get cameos from all the OUAT characters, and expand the roster with some more obscure or original ones. 

Sadly, we'd probably be stuck with Red, Dorothy, Third Wheel and Merida. "Once Upon a Strong Female Lead(s)".

It would, but they messed up on the previous spinoff and the main show itself weakened to this point.  A&E and the writers messed up the potential of the series big time.

[Camera One]

26 minutes ago, KingOfHearts said:

Sadly, we'd probably be stuck with Red, Dorothy, Third Wheel and Merida. "Once Upon a Strong Female Lead(s)".

Third Wheel would never be on A&E's top list.  They don't want to write for her.  Past experience also reveals they have zero true interest in Red.  Now Merida on the other hand...

[KingOfHearts]

Quote

It would, but they messed up on the previous spinoff and the main show itself weakened to this point.  A&E and the writers messed up the potential of the series big time.

Team Princess episodes (The Bear King and Ruby Slippers) were written almost like backdoor pilots. That's what made me think of them.

Quote

Third Wheel would never be on A&E's top list.  They don't want to write for her. 

A&E are big fans of characters standing in the background and saying a line or two of dialogue to remind the audience they even exist.

Edited March 5, 2017 by KingOfHearts

[Camera One]

Half the "high profile" guest returns they tout consist of the guest star saying one or two lines in one scene and then nothing.  It's all the more incredulous when they actually have so many high-quality, well-casted actors they've accumulated over the years.  And then what gets me is in interviews, they always say, "We LOVE writing for ___".  Yeah, so much so you wrote them off the show, eh?  We love Neal so much, we loved writing for Robin, etc... give me a freak'in break.  I think with Red, they only gave her two episodes in Season 5 to claim that they're so inclusive on the show of all types of characters.  The subplot made zero sense from the perspective of Red's character.  

Edited March 5, 2017 by Camera One

[Kktjones]

Curious what people think the ratings for tonight's episode will be? The winter finale had a demo rating of 0.9 with 3.27 million viewers. They no longer have Sunday Night Football to compete with, but I believe Spring ratings have tended to be lower over the years. It also doesn't seem like they have been doing much promo for the show's return. I could see the ratings being similar to where they left off - so around a 1.0/0.9. 

[Camera One]

I'm guessing a little lower than the 6A finale.  The friend I watch with when she visits had no idea the show was back today, and she probably wouldn't watch it if she didn't with me.  The other message board I visit with casual viewers had some quit early in 6A because the character they like most is Rumple and he was missing in some episodes.

[Souris]

14 minutes ago, Kktjones said:

I could see the ratings being similar to where they left off - so around a 1.0/0.9. 

I've been terrible about predicting ratings for much of anything this season, but that's about what I expect, too.

[Camera One]

Well, let's all have HOPE and FAITH that the ratings will at least stay stable.  If anyone lives near a fountain, please go and make a speech like Henry did.  It might be embarrassing, but we'll be with you in spirit.  

Edited March 5, 2017 by Camera One

[MostlyC]

Once Upon A Time returns tonight!  Yay!

Amidst all the glee and dissecting of ratings/plots/scheduling, let's remember to agree to disagree with respect and civility.  If one feels it is impossible, then I heartily encourage one to use the handy "ignore"  feature/

Remember out lovely mascot?  She loves it here, and hates it when people get overly heated in their posts.  Let us not make our mascot cry.

 

[Camera One]

It just dawned on me, that for the first time in forever, we don't have a clip show tonight before the premiere.

I guess another consideration for "Once" is if it proves a good lead-in for "Time After Time".  Now that "Timeless" is done for the season, I'm going to give "Time After Time" a try.

Edited March 5, 2017 by Camera One

[coppersin]

Ratings question: does coming back in March change the expectations of how much the ratings will (probably) drop next week? I'm sure there are plenty of casual viewers like myself who will tune in when a show returns from hiatus just to see how cliffhangers are resolved and then decide whether to continue watching. But that's usually in January/early February, when I know to check because most shows premiere then. So with waiting this long for the show to return and ratings in general going down as spring weather begins, perhaps there shouldn't be much/any drop week-to-week?

[Souris]

Household rating was 2.0 for first half hour, 1.8 for second. Time After Time tanked. http://programminginsider.com/uncategorized/nbcs-revamped-sunday-scores-abcs-time-time-doa/

[Mathius]

Quote

I guess another consideration for "Once" is if it proves a good lead-in for "Time After Time". 

Well, now we know the answer to that.

Edited March 6, 2017 by Mathius

[maryle]

Well, 0.9 for Once I was fine with my prediction but it is enough?

That is the question??

[sharky]

Ugh. I'm not sure if Time After Time failing is a good or bad thing for Once. Does a failure reflect badly on Once -- after all, plenty of shows have failed after Once so could this be the final straw? Or does it give Once a plus because they won't want to toss that many dramas in the dumpster and at least Once has more overall established value?

18-49 numbers are going to be interesting. The problem is if Once can maintain a 0.9-1.0, predictions could be murky until the schedule is finally released. But if it drops to a 0.8 or 0.7 and can't at least maintain viewers, the future will be pretty obvious. 

[Mari]

I'm still trying to figure out how you stretch the premise of Time After Time beyond a short run.

[sharky]

Tvbythenumbers has a 0.9 for 18-49 with 3 million viewers. Steady from the finale. Murky as all hell if it maintains that for a few weeks. Last year, 5B's second episode rose from the premiere but not sure that will happen this time. 

[Souris]

I think ABC will count the 0.9 as a win. But yeah, it's a murky number that doesn't make things clear-cut. If it follows typical TV pattern, it will go down next week -- it's "spring forward" weekend, and that's an actual phenomenon that traditionally dampens ratings.

[Mathius]

21 minutes ago, sharky said:

Tvbythenumbers has a 0.9 for 18-49 with 3 million viewers. Steady from the finale.

Technically, it's 3.02, which is slightly lower than the finale's 3.27.  It's the same as in S5 - the 5A finale got 1.3 / 4.56, 5B premiere got 1.3 / 4.01.  

So, the demo number stayed steady in both cases, but slightly less people tuned in, which was not the case for past premieres in S1 - S4.

Quote

Ugh. I'm not sure if Time After Time failing is a good or bad thing for Once. Does a failure reflect badly on Once -- after all, plenty of shows have failed after Once so could this be the final straw? Or does it give Once a plus because they won't want to toss that many dramas in the dumpster and at least Once has more overall established value?

I think it reflects badly given that AFV does better than both Once and Time After Time.  All Sunday night dramas are probably gonna be axed.

Edited March 6, 2017 by Mathius

[Shanna Marie]

10 minutes ago, Mathius said:

I think it reflects badly given that AFV does better than both Once and Time After Time.  All Sunday night dramas are probably gonna be axed.

Yeah, their funny videos and silly celebrity game shows do so much better on Sunday nights than any dramas, so I suspect this will be the end of Sunday-night dramas. They'll just do entertainment reality instead.

[Souris]

Half-hour breakdown: 1.0, 0.9.

[sharky]

27 minutes ago, Shanna Marie said:

Yeah, their funny videos and silly celebrity game shows do so much better on Sunday nights than any dramas, so I suspect this will be the end of Sunday-night dramas. They'll just do entertainment reality instead.

But even that gets murky. To Tell the Truth, which aired in Once's spot, was pulling numbers lower than Once. On the other hand, it's much cheaper to produce. And either way, you're competing against football in the fall. Game shows are cheap but can burn out quick with viewers. Once is "family" counter programming. I don't know. If Once had debuted higher or lower, we wouldn't be having this discussion. And my bigger concern is that it is so close. If Once slips in the next two weeks, I think the death certificate will be signed.

And bringing back the comparison to AoS. From Cancel Bear last week:

Quote

 

Were it any other show, the Bear would be writing the obituary for “SHIELD” right now. But it’s not. “SHIELD” is the first (though arguably no longer the flagship) major TV property under the Disney-Marvel partnership, and it airs on another Disney-owned property. Those ties run deep.

Deep enough to keep it on the air? That will be the test. Earlier in the season, the Bear was betting on a shorter-run final season for “Agents of SHIELD” in 2017-18. Now, and particularly with an “Inhumans” series already greenlit, that seems less likely.

 

And that's with it hovering around 0.6 for several weeks in a row. Just replace Shield with Once and Inhumans with game shows/that potential Disney drama and you have this current mess.

Btw, I just looked at ABC's pilot schedule and that Disney drama isn't on there. Hyperion? Is that right? What the hell happened to that?

[Mathius]

14 minutes ago, sharky said:

Btw, I just looked at ABC's pilot schedule and that Disney drama isn't on there. Hyperion? Is that right? What the hell happened to that?

It said at the start that it was a "top-secret development", so I don't expect to hear much about it until/unless it happens.

[Tiger]

IIRC, the first season of Secrets & Lies was thr only show to do well airing after Once.  Included in that, part of what got Desperate Housewives cancelled is that it couldnt hold its Once lead-in.  

If Dungey, Sherwood and/or anyone else is even marginally surprised that Time After Time bombed, they shouldnt be.  The show was extremely troubled behind the scenes and it was basically promoted as Wicked City: Time Travel Edition.  

[Curio]

You mean the ratings didn't increase after all the recycled Evil Queen promotion they've been doing all season? What a total and complete surprise no one could have ever seen coming.

[sharky]

To be fair, the recycled EQ promotion was limited to a 15-second spot during the Oscars. I mean, how else are you going to promote the fact that she's a snake in a cage now? But it does illustrate a good point: there was nothing to promote. No one is going to get excited about some dude in a hood. Sorry, but Gideon is no Elsa. Or Hades. Or even three evil women who could've had awesome stories that were instead wasted on a season-long story arc.

[Curio]

6 minutes ago, sharky said:

To be fair, the recycled EQ promotion was limited to a 15-second spot during the Oscars. 

That's not the only piece of marketing they've been recycling, though. The graphic that pops up during ABC's pre-show commercial that usually features 2-3 main characters has had the Evil Queen front and center all year. The Comic-Con poster and the main promotional poster that is used at imdb.com, hulu.com, and all the other media sites is the recycled Season 2/3 poster of the Evil Queen with the terrible CGI lightning bolt. The marketing tagline for this season seems to be "Long Live the Queen." They've been hinging this entire season's marketing on the Evil Queen.

What's worse now is because they got rid of the split season structure, we're stuck with this marketing until the bitter end. The past few years, they split up the marketing focal points based on the A/B arcs. So last year in the fall, they pushed a lot of Camelot imagery and promoted the Dark Swan. In the spring, they were able to throw Hook's face on the poster and market the Underworld. This year, there's literally nothing new about the spring promotion compared to the fall promotion, which isn't going to do much to put a spark back into the ratings.

[sharky]

And what a waste Camelot was. Imagine if instead of the wish realm, they got sent to Camelot and that was 6B. That would give you a better peg than dude in a hood. 

[Eolivet]

1 hour ago, Tiger said:

The show was extremely troubled behind the scenes and it was basically promoted as Wicked City: Time Travel Edition.  

I actually got a kick out of Time After Time, but I did keep thinking "Who said 'let's write Jack the Ripper and H.G. Wells as modern AU slash fanfiction!'"

I agree the next few weeks will tell OuaT's fate. Bad luck to go back on the air now that Little Big Shots is back. That was last year's midseason hit.

[Curio]

5 minutes ago, sharky said:

And what a waste Camelot was. Imagine if instead of the wish realm, they got sent to Camelot and that was 6B. That would give you a better peg than dude in a hood. 

The one season they finally go back to the full 22-episode format and they choose the most boring plot to do it with. Dark Swan really should have been a full season.

[scenicbyway]

1. They ran the recycled EQ for weeks before the premiere, not just during the Oscars.  It's true though, there was nothing to promote, so it's hard to make a promo off of, "remember we killed Robin last season with no hope of return? well now we have fake Robin to take his place!"  or "Remember August from season 1?  Well he's back in this 6th season to have a little adventure with Emma in a fake realm!"  I mean, what were the promo monkeys supposed to work with?

For me, (and I haven't see the whole episode yet)  having it off the air for 3 months, does it no favors.  I get that they have award shows on Sunday nights, so run it in re runs part of the time on Saturday nights or something.   People forget about it when it goes away.  Especially with how they are doing the Shonda shows now, some end in February, some don't start till March.  How are people supposed to know when to tune in?

[Curio]

5 minutes ago, Eolivet said:

I actually got a kick out of Time After Time, but I did keep thinking "Who said 'let's write Jack the Ripper and H.G. Wells as modern AU slash fanfiction!'"

You can apparently thank these guys.

[Free]

31 minutes ago, sharky said:

To be fair, the recycled EQ promotion was limited to a 15-second spot during the Oscars. I mean, how else are you going to promote the fact that she's a snake in a cage now? But it does illustrate a good point: there was nothing to promote. No one is going to get excited about some dude in a hood. Sorry, but Gideon is no Elsa. Or Hades. Or even three evil women who could've had awesome stories that were instead wasted on a season-long story arc.

It certainly didn't help that it was 15 seconds of EQ hamming it up.

3 hours ago, Mathius said:

Technically, it's 3.02, which is slightly lower than the finale's 3.27.  It's the same as in S5 - the 5A finale got 1.3 / 4.56, 5B premiere got 1.3 / 4.01.  

So, the demo number stayed steady in both cases, but slightly less people tuned in, which was not the case for past premieres in S1 - S4.

I think it reflects badly given that AFV does better than both Once and Time After Time.  All Sunday night dramas are probably gonna be axed.

Viewership is usually the first to drop first before the demos based on this show's history, especially the last 2 or so seasons.

[Souris]

Half-hour unrounded 18-49 breakdown: 0.972/0.881, overall 0.927

Edited March 6, 2017 by Souris

[Souris]

Ad Age article:

Meanwhile, with an average rating of a 0.9 among the adults 18-49 crowd, ABC's Sunday night lineup is crying out for an all-game-show/family-friendly format. New time-travel drama "Time After Time" bowed last night to a woeful 0.6 in the fast affiliate ratings (making it the season's eighth new series to debut to fractional ratings), and the return of the low-rated anthology strip "American Crime" isn't going to do much to buttress ABC's deliveries. "Crime," which last winter averaged a 0.9 rating in live-same-day, will lead out of the already compromised "Time After Time," which itself is unlikely to get much support from a creaky "Once Upon a Time" (1.0). Look for ABC entertainment president Channing Dungey to bring a wrecking ball to Sunday nights during her May upfront presentation.

[sharky]

Yikes. But aren't they already bringing a wrecking ball to the rest of the schedule as well? They've got a bunch of dramas to cancel, I think six or seven by my count. Only one drama making it to a season 2. I get their desire to do more comedies but you have to add at least a few dramas in there.

Also, I've decided what they need to do to reboot this for S7. Henry wants to be a normal guy living in his dad's old apartment. But then Snow and Charming decide to return to the EF and his mom needs some help solving crimes in Storybrooke. Bam! Fairy tale procedural! Problem solved! (But seriously, I would actually watch that. I'm officially part of the problem.)

[Tiger]

8 minutes ago, sharky said:

Yikes. But aren't they already bringing a wrecking ball to the rest of the schedule as well? They've got a bunch of dramas to cancel, I think six or seven by my count. Only one drama making it to a season 2. I get their desire to do more comedies but you have to add at least a few dramas in there.

Also, I've decided what they need to do to reboot this for S7. Henry wants to be a normal guy living in his dad's old apartment. But then Snow and Charming decide to return to the EF and his mom needs some help solving crimes in Storybrooke. Bam! Fairy tale procedural! Problem solved! (But seriously, I would actually watch that. I'm officially part of the problem.)

No, Mon-Fri will return largely in tact at least format wise.  Mon and Tue will have new dramas at 10, with Inhumans already set to air the first seven Tuesdays of the season starting Tue, Sep 26.  Tue & Wed will probably one new comedy and possible one or two relocated comedies.  Thu will return will remain TGIT.  And Fri will likely add an hour of comedy but still be capped by 2020.  

While ABC may be cancelling a lot of dramas, 2 or probably 3 hours that were occupied by drama this fall will be filled by comedy or reality/alternative next fall.  ABC is going to resemble NBC of the mid to late 90's in its drama to comedy ratio.  Hell, a long time ABC has had three 4X comedy blocks on Tue, Wed, and Frim. 

Edited March 6, 2017 by Tiger

[Free]

2 hours ago, sharky said:

Yikes. But aren't they already bringing a wrecking ball to the rest of the schedule as well? They've got a bunch of dramas to cancel, I think six or seven by my count. Only one drama making it to a season 2. I get their desire to do more comedies but you have to add at least a few dramas in there.

Also, I've decided what they need to do to reboot this for S7. Henry wants to be a normal guy living in his dad's old apartment. But then Snow and Charming decide to return to the EF and his mom needs some help solving crimes in Storybrooke. Bam! Fairy tale procedural! Problem solved! (But seriously, I would actually watch that. I'm officially part of the problem.)

It would make sense, their dramas have been mostly rejected by the audience one after another, so they're stuck with not finding a big enough new hit to sustain themselves, but they also have veteran dramas that are aging and becoming more costly/have contractual issues, so ABC is stuck in between.

[Souris]

Once is in the In Danger category on this renewal predictor.