Ratings and Scheduling: Who's the fairest of them all?

[Mathius]

It'd be especially bad if some of the viewers were fooled by all those Colin interviews and tuned in expecting a big role for Hook.

Now I wonder if the promise of Cinderella will draw them and possibly more in for next week, or if this one will have burned them too badly?

[RadioGirl27]

12 minutes ago, Mathius said:

It'd be especially bad if some of the viewers were fooled by all those Colin interviews and tuned in expecting a big role for Hook.

I'm starting to think that they were expecting this drop in the ratings and that's why they sent Colin to do the interviews for the episodes and not Lana, so maybe the GA would think the episode was about Hook, Belle, Emma and Rumple, and not about Regina and, well, Regina.

[Mathius]

One thing I find hilarious is that the ratings dropped so sharply in the second half-hour........and the first half-hour literally ended with that scene between the Evil Queen and Rumple.  I can't help but wonder if many viewers just went "NOPE" and tuned out there and then.  Can't blame them.

Edited October 3, 2016 by Mathius

[Tiger]

What folks need to keep it mind when it comes to Once's renewal is that it doesnt just hinge on how Once is doing but how the nets other existing shows are doing AND how the new crop of shows look.  

Dungey and Sherwood want to continue to expand ABC's comedy footprint and are looking to add another hour at some point in the Jan-May half of the season.  So thats one less hour for drama/alternative.  AFV, Dancing/Bachelor, the comedies, Shield, Grey's, Murder, Scandal, Shark Tank, 20/20, College Football, now Designated Survivor and probably Conviction have locked down real estate. 

So Once is going to have to compete with Quantico, Secrets & Lies, and Notorious, plus Time After Time, Star Crossed and the other midseason entries, plus the new pilots for extremely limited real estate.  All those hours arenfighting for realistically 3-4 max available.  

And lets say ABC does add another comedy this spring and brings back all of its existing comedies, it will probably add yet another hour next fall making Once fight for even less available real estate.  

Production costs, licensing, merchandising, and other intangibles such as ABC beingy clearly invested in Priyanka Chopra for example, are also all factors.

Edited October 3, 2016 by Tiger

[Souris]

Once is always susceptible to a half-hour drop because Sunday Night Football starts at 8:30 Eastern. But it doesn't always drop, so something else must factor in, whether it's boredom/dissatisfaction with the ep or the football matchup being particularly good. I don't know. It didn't drop last week.

Edited October 3, 2016 by Souris

[Hookian]

Quote

So Once is going to have to compete with Quantico, Secrets & Lies, and Notorious, plus Time After Time, Star Crossed and the other midseason entries, plus the new pilots for extremely limited real estate.  All those hours arenfighting for realistically 3-4 max available.  

It already beats all those shows. Time After Time is predicted to flop badly. Star Crossed is probably also gonna bomb much like The Catch and the Pilots for next season won't effect OUAT as much as other shows.

TVGrimReaper still has this as likely to be renewed. Something of note is the % increased. From a 74% to a 79%, that's very good news for us but bad news for ABC that their average keeps dropping.

http://www.tvgrimreaper.com/2016/10/03/predictions-week-3-secretsandlies-pitch-notorious-now-toss-ups/2100/

It also wasn't even a big drop it was the normal .1 after the premiere. I'm not going with a .2 drop until finals are posted cause the premiere got a 1.2 at first.

Edited October 3, 2016 by Hookian

[Curio]

59 minutes ago, Mathius said:

It'd be especially bad if some of the viewers were fooled by all those Colin interviews and tuned in expecting a big role for Hook.

I'd imagine the amount of fans who read those interviews before the episode aired is very small in the grand scheme of things. I doubt it impacted the ratings at all.

Edited October 3, 2016 by Curio

[Hookian]

4 minutes ago, Curio said:

I'd imagine the amount of fans who read those interviews before the episode aired is very small in the grand scheme of things. I doubt it impacted the ratings at all.

Yeah most of the audience probably doesn't read news articles online.

[Mathius]

Yeah, at this point it's probably not a question of IF for Season 7, but of how (as in, how will it be?  A shorter season, the length of a usual half-season? A full season?  And if so, will they bring back the split-season arc format, or will they keep to this style?)  Either way, Season 8 looks to be an impossibility at this point, because by Season 7 the ratings for Once will be as bad as any other ABC show doing poorly, possibly worse.

Edited October 3, 2016 by Mathius

[Hookian]

Just now, Mathius said:

Yeah, at this point it's probably not a question of IF for Season 7, but of how (as in, how will it be?  A shorter season, the length of a usual half-season?  A full season?  And if so, will they bring back the split-season arc format, or will they keep to this style?)  Either way, Season 8 looks to be an impossibility at this point, because by Season 7 the ratings for Once will be as bad as any other ABC show doing poorly, possibly worse.

I think that's what A and E are doing TBH. Since S4 they and Jane have said they want 7 seasons.

[sharky]

Plus I think we've speculated many times before that Once actors were probably signed to seven-year deals. Wouldn't be surprised if they cut it off then. It's not worth it to try and negotiate contracts at that point.

[Souris]

Wasn't sure if this should go here, but I couldn't find a better place. Screen time charts for 6x02 & S6 so far.

[Curio]

A&E seem exhausted by the OUAT fandom as well, so I wouldn't be surprised if they're ready to move on to other projects after Season 7. Best case scenario is that ABC gives them ample notice that Season 7 is the last so they can plan for a proper ending. Best best case scenario is that ratings improve, A&E jump ship, and we get better show runners who can take this show on for a few more years.

[KingOfHearts]

18 minutes ago, Curio said:

A&E seem exhausted by the OUAT fandom as well, so I wouldn't be surprised if they're ready to move on to other projects after Season 7. 

They can move on to bigger and better things, like Dead of Summer. ;) (Once was a miracle to happen in their hands, let's be real.)

Quote

 Best best case scenario is that ratings improve, A&E jump ship, and we get better show runners who can take this show on for a few more years.

I wish we could get a spinoff show like Once: Wonderland on Netflix.

Edited October 3, 2016 by KingOfHearts

[tri4335]

5 minutes ago, KingOfHearts said:

They can move on to bigger and better things, like Dead of Summer. ;) (Once was a miracle to happen in their hands, let's be real.)

Yes they caught lightening in a bottle on this one. I do expect they will begin to concentrate on selling their next show but how that affects OUAT (does it make it a better or worse), I have no idea.

[Eolivet]

Steelers were on Sunday Night Football - they can be a national draw.

8 minutes ago, Tiger said:

Production costs, licensing, merchandising, and other intangibles such as ABC beingy clearly invested in Priyanka Chopra for example, are also all factors.

This is why I wonder if we're not going to have a schedule switch by spring -- Quantico, for better or worse, is being handed a paltry lead-in. They are likely more invested in the success of Quantico than the success of OUAT, and may be motivated to make a change for that reason. I just wouldn't be shocked to see OUAT moved to 9 is all.

[sharky]

I was listening to an old interview with Colin and he was explaining the show concept and that it created by two of the writers from Lost and I thought, "Oh yea, right. That was their selling point." But you can only ride on that for so long. It's become painfully obvious that show recognition got them farther than it should have. These ratings are a perfect example of A&E being exposed as decent writers but bad show runners. 

[InsertWordHere]

2 minutes ago, Eolivet said:

Steelers were on Sunday Night Football - they can be a national draw.

This is why I wonder if we're not going to have a schedule switch by spring -- Quantico, for better or worse, is being handed a paltry lead-in. They are likely more invested in the success of Quantico than the success of OUAT, and may be motivated to make a change for that reason. I just wouldn't be shocked to see OUAT moved to 9 is all.

When The Walking Dead returns, their 9:00 ratings will be even worse. I'm not saying they shouldn't do it, but if OUaT returns during the Spring half of TWD, it will be killed, especially as I think those two shows do have some viewer overlap. Sadly (for me), Game of Thrones isn't returning until June, so the networks don't have to worry as much about that show in the Spring.

[Hookian]

OUAT is not moving from the Eight PM time slot, that's not going to happen.

[Shanna Marie]

1 minute ago, Hookian said:

OUAT is not moving from the Eight PM time slot, that's not going to happen.

Yeah, it seems to be their transition between the entirely family-oriented home videos show and the more adult later shows. It's the show parents watch with their older kids. I think that some of the problem with their Sunday block is that it's all over the map. There's the funniest home videos show which at least has some of the overlapping family audience, then Once with it's supposedly lighter fairy tale soap opera, going into the really soapy, intense and adult "real-world" shows afterward. It might have been a better match with something like Agent Carter or the late, lamented Forever -- a bit more adult, but still with fantasy elements.

[sharky]

I think there's also a Disney factor. The early Sunday slot was traditionally a Disney movie or Disney family hour. And as much as we don't always want to admit it, this is a Disney entity. Snow and the yellow Belle dress are perfect examples. They may not have it in ratings but the show sells merchandise and Disney has rights to lots of that stuff, which I think is also helping the show stay alive. You can't sell Quantico dolls or Secrets and Lies t-shirts at Hot Topic. But I bet Once is pulling in extra revenue from those places to help justify it staying on the air. 

[TheGreenKnight]

I do wonder if Forever would've done better if it had been placed after OUAT. It was fantasy-oriented and the main character was catnip for female viewers (and OUAT's strongest base is female viewers). I still wonder why they didn't put it there? It was one of the few shows they've had the past few years that I thought had potential.

If the drop at the half-hour point had anything to do with the episode itself, it was probably more because the average person doesn't know much about The Count of Monte Cristo. That's the problem I foresaw with a lot of their ideas for this season--misc. literature won't work as episode fodder like well-known fairytales or popular stories/films like Peter Pan, King Arthur and The Wizard of Oz. Greek Mythology was already pushing it, imo, but this season is definitely farther into the unknown for the average viewer.

[orza]

1 minute ago, TheGreenKnight said:

I do wonder if Forever would've done better if it had been placed after OUAT. It was fantasy-oriented and the main character was catnip for female viewers (and OUAT's strongest base is female viewers). I still wonder why they didn't put it there? It was one of the few shows they've had the past few years that I thought had potential.

Sunday is still considered a prime TV night and Forever was not network-owned. It is a Warner Bros. property. ABC would want to air it's own shows on the best nights and not the competition's show.

There's more to consider than just ad revenue from original airings. OUAT is already represented at the Disney theme parks. They started selling Regina home decor items back in season 1. There is a Mr's Gold's shop at one of the parks. It's just a storefront, not a real store, but still an iconic presence. My best guess is still that when the show it done there's a good chance it will be developed into a theme park attraction similar to the Pirates of the Caribbean ride. It would lend itself really well to that with all the different characters and lands they have visited. The revenue potential there would justify keeping the show on the air for 7 seasons despite lackluster ratings. The popularity of the show at conventions shows there are plenty of people out there willing to travel and spend a a lot of money for a show-related experience.

[Mathius]

7 minutes ago, orza said:

There is a Mr's Gold's shop at one of the parks.  It's just a storefront, not a real store, but still an iconic presence.

Yeah, I know it was there at Hollywood Studios, but I thought it got taken down?

[sharky]

41 minutes ago, orza said:

There's more to consider than just ad revenue from original airings. OUAT is already represented at the Disney theme parks. They started selling Regina home decor items back in season 1. There is a Mr's Gold's shop at one of the parks. It's just a storefront, not a real store, but still an iconic presence. My best guess is still that when the show it done there's a good chance it will be developed into a theme park attraction similar to the Pirates of the Caribbean ride. It would lend itself really well to that with all the different characters and lands they have visited. The revenue potential there would justify keeping the show on the air for 7 seasons despite lackluster ratings. The popularity of the show at conventions shows there are plenty of people out there willing to travel and spend a a lot of money for a show-related experience.

You also have to remember that ABC isn't the only network that Disney owns. I could easily see this getting sent to syndication on Freeform or one of the Disney channels -- Disney XD would be a good place for this at night for example. Keeps the money in the Disney family for years to come and gives its other stations some extra content. That's not something you could do with a Shonda Rhimes show.

[maryle]

I wonder if there is a possibility for a season 7 but they have to cut the budget (like cutting some regular to recurring instead) what A. and E. will do?

There a few in the cast that could easily be recurring or even guests stars without changing too much the show.

[Tiger]

4 hours ago, Hookian said:

It already beats all those shows. Time After Time is predicted to flop badly. Star Crossed is probably also gonna bomb much like The Catch and the Pilots for next season won't effect OUAT as much as other shows.

TVGrimReaper still has this as likely to be renewed. Something of note is the % increased. From a 74% to a 79%, that's very good news for us but bad news for ABC that their average keeps dropping.

http://www.tvgrimreaper.com/2016/10/03/predictions-week-3-secretsandlies-pitch-notorious-now-toss-ups/2100/

It also wasn't even a big drop it was the normal .1 after the premiere. I'm not going with a .2 drop until finals are posted cause the premiere got a 1.2 at first.

It BARELY beats them, and id bet Milo Ventimiglia's ass that all three are cheaper to produce than Once.  Catch also has Shonda.

As for Star Crossed and Time After Time, I think both look dumb as dirt but who knows how theyll do until they debut.  

14 minutes ago, maryle said:

I wonder if there is a possibility for a season 7 but they have to cut the budget (like cutting some regular to recurring instead) what A. and E. will do?

There a few in the cast that could easily be recurring or even guests stars without changing too much the show.

I think the budget has already been cut judging by how cheap the cgi looks this season.  It was always iffy, but this year it looks cheap. 

Or maybe they keep the same budget and EQ's hair and clothes ate into the cgi budget.  

[YaddaYadda]

They used the Lady Washington for the scenes with Belle and Hook. It's a decision I'm having a really difficult time understanding because they brought it from Seattle to Vancouver and used it one afternoon. I can't imagine renting out a ship comes cheap.

Quantico moved from Quebec to NYC this year, so I don't know how much cheaper it really is.

[Shanna Marie]

1 hour ago, TheGreenKnight said:

I do wonder if Forever would've done better if it had been placed after OUAT. It was fantasy-oriented and the main character was catnip for female viewers (and OUAT's strongest base is female viewers). I still wonder why they didn't put it there? It was one of the few shows they've had the past few years that I thought had potential.

That would have been a perfect pairing with Once Upon a Time, with the present-day stories juxtaposed with flashback stories in different eras, and the fantasy and romance elements, as well as the parent/child relationships with skewed ages. It didn't fit at all where it was, but it would have flowed perfectly out of Once. Nothing else they've put on Sunday nights is a natural fit with this show. I almost always switch straight over to PBS afterward because almost anything on Masterpiece is more to my taste than any of ABC's other Sunday shows.

[Tiger]

8 minutes ago, YaddaYadda said:

They used the Lady Washington for the scenes with Belle and Hook. It's a decision I'm having a really difficult time understanding because they brought it from Seattle to Vancouver and used it one afternoon. I can't imagine renting out a ship comes cheap.

Quantico moved from Quebec to NYC this year, so I don't know how much cheaper it really is.

They moved because they had a lot of issues with the mostly french-speaking crew and the weather, and NY State offered the show a huge tax incentive.  

[daxx]

53 minutes ago, Tiger said:

They used the Lady Washington for the scenes with Belle and Hook. It's a decision I'm having a really difficult time understanding because they brought it from Seattle to Vancouver and used it one afternoon. I can't imagine renting out a ship comes cheap.

I wouldn't be surprised if renting the real ship is cheaper than the CGI though.

[Hookian]

1 hour ago, Tiger said:

It BARELY beats them, and id bet Milo Ventimiglia's ass that all three are cheaper to produce than Once.  Catch also has Shonda.

As for Star Crossed and Time After Time, I think both look dumb as dirt but who knows how theyll do until they debut.  

I think the budget has already been cut judging by how cheap the cgi looks this season.  It was always iffy, but this year it looks cheap. 

Or maybe they keep the same budget and EQ's hair and clothes ate into the cgi budget.  

I wouldn't say it's barely. 1.1 and it may even go up to a 1.2 is pretty good in this age of Network TV which is basically dead. It is still a win and right now Once is 79% above the ABC average and on every ratings website is still a likely to be renewed.

Edited October 3, 2016 by Hookian

[YaddaYadda]

27 minutes ago, Hookian said:

Once is 79% above the ABC average and on every ratings website is still a likely to be renewed.

What does that mean exactly? What's ABC's average? Where their shows are at right now in terms of ratings, or is it something else?

[Tiger]

6 minutes ago, YaddaYadda said:

What does that mean exactly? What's ABC's average? Where their shows are at right now in terms of ratings, or is it something else?

I dont know where the poster is getting those figures from, but based on the live +same day AND live + 3 numbers that tvbythenumbers posted for premeire week, there is simply no way that is true.  

[sharky]

If you look at tvbythenumbers for overnight ratings, they're showing ABC as a 1.0 average on the season for 18-49 so Once would be above that -- barely.

[maryle]

I think the number is from the grim reaper guy and it is truth that for now those site put Once in the renewal column. 

I think one cause is because if younger show like Quantico Is already so low in their second season it doesn't look good at all.

[KAOS Agent]

There was an article in the Hollywood Reporter discussing the networks and their premiere week ratings. CBS and NBC were tops, but the article said that if you remove sports from the picture, ABC is only slightly behind the other two networks in terms of scripted show ratings.

[sharky]

Football is a ridiculous outlier that pulls those networks up. 

[Tiger]

27 minutes ago, sharky said:

Football is a ridiculous outlier that pulls those networks up. 

Also, ABC does much better than CBS and NBC in live+3 and live+7. I believe for premeire set "Designated Survivor" just set a new record in live+7, many shows including Goldbergs and Blackish are even year to year in live+7, and Grey's and I believe Shield are acthallh up year to year in live+7.  

[Hookian]

2 hours ago, maryle said:

I think the number is from the grim reaper guy and it is truth that for now those site put Once in the renewal column. 

I think one cause is because if younger show like Quantico Is already so low in their second season it doesn't look good at all.

TV Line as well put them on the safe bet category for a S6. The Grim Reaper guy is the one I listen to though cause they were the cancellation bear.

[stealinghome]

Who knows what relevance it holds in this discussion, but I did think it was interesting that Once and HTGAWM are tied for having the greatest percentage decline in ad revenue on ABC this season.

Also, fwiw, I think tvseriesfinale's layout is the best if you're looking to quickly judge where shows on the same network stack up against each other.

[jjjmoss]

No upward adjustment. 1.1 by episode 2, sub-1s soon enough.

[Mathius]

Again, a reason why I suspect we'll be getting a shorter Season 7, as well as the reasons of lower ad revenue and budget cuts.

Edited October 4, 2016 by Mathius

[Camera One]

I just talked to someone who was interested in Aladdin and was let down that he wasn't in Episode 2, so they may not come back since they watch irregularly.

[Curio]

Yeah, my casual viewer friend I watch with is very annoyed they haven't gotten to Aladdin and Jasmine yet even though the promos keep pimping them out. As annoying as it was when Elsa and Anna took over the plot in Season 4, it did help ratings. I can't help but wonder if making Aladdin and Jasmine a lot more prominent would have helped with ratings this season. Instead of using a poorly Photoshopped recycled poster from Season 3 of the Evil Queen at Comic-Con, they could have featured Aladdin and Jasmine or the magic lamp; that would have brought a lot more attention to the show. I doubt the show would have seen its Season 4 premiere ratings, but it definitely would be higher than what it is now.

[Rumsy4]

It's odd that we had what felt like a filler episode as the second episode of the season. They keep showing Jasmine and Aladdin in the promos, but instead we got a Count of Monte Cristo who was literally nothing like the character from the book. 

[Hookian]

15 hours ago, Mathius said:

Again, a reason why I suspect we'll be getting a shorter Season 7, as well as the reasons of lower ad revenue and budget cuts.

Has ABC ever done like shortened seasons? I'm not sure they've ever done that. I would be fine with them doing that for OUAT or giving them only like 15 episodes or something for the final season.

[KingOfHearts]

5 hours ago, Hookian said:

Has ABC ever done like shortened seasons? I'm not sure they've ever done that. I would be fine with them doing that for OUAT or giving them only like 15 episodes or something for the final season.

Lost had shorter seasons later on, but some of that was due to the writers' strike. 

[Curio]

I wouldn't mind a 15-16 episode final season that played straight through with no interruptions. They'd probably have to drop the fall portion of the season and start it in later winter.

[Hookian]

1 hour ago, Curio said:

I wouldn't mind a 15-16 episode final season that played straight through with no interruptions. They'd probably have to drop the fall portion of the season and start it in later winter.

Fox did that with Glee when it ended. Gave it a final season airing in January.

Edited October 5, 2016 by Hookian