Ratings and Scheduling: Who's the fairest of them all?

[Serena]

Considering they haven't sent *one* actor to do interviews and talk shows, it's impressive. It did better than Quantico, and ABC got the star of that show invited and presenting at the Emmys, magazine covers and late night interviews.

[Hookian]

Not bad at all. Once is still one of ABC's top performing shows, even moreso then some of there new ones. Kind of shocked at that.

[Eolivet]

A 1.2, down 33% from the year ago premiere? While I do think the show will be renewed, I think it's all but certain to be moved next year (maybe even later this year if a new midseason show catches fire elsewhere on the schedule).

Marc Berman knows his television.

[Curio]

Does anyone have a direct link to the site with the stats?

[retrograde]

1 hour ago, Curio said:

Does anyone have a direct link to the site with the stats?

Here.

[Tiger]

ABC Sunday continues to be an unmitigated disaster from start to finish.  It will be interesting to see if Channing Dungey makes big changes once football & awards seasons are over in Mar.  

[Hookian]

1 hour ago, Eolivet said:

A 1.2, down 33% from the year ago premiere? While I do think the show will be renewed, I think it's all but certain to be moved next year (maybe even later this year if a new midseason show catches fire elsewhere on the schedule).

Marc Berman knows his television.

I'm not sure that would be smart especially since next season will be the last.

[jjjmoss]

Premiere and finale numbers:

S1 4.0, 3.3 (-17% over the course.)

S2 3.9, 2.3 (-41% over the course)

S3 2.6, 2.3 (-12% over the course.)

S4 3.5, 1.8 (-49% over the course. Elsa power.)

S5 1.8, 1.2 (-33% over the course)

If we take the most recent drop, the finale would get around a 0.8. If we take the average drop...also around a 0.8 given how big 2 and 4 fell.

[Curio]

5 minutes ago, jjjmoss said:

S4 3.5, 1.8 (-49% over the course. Elsa power.)

This is why they should have marketed Aladdin/Jasmine as the main draw this season. Then again, they would have had to rewritten the entire premiere to make it more focused on them. (Which, based on the premiere we got, probably wouldn't have been a bad thing.)

[Camera One]

Darn it, A&E.  I want this show to continue.  At this point, I don't care if they make 6A all Aladdin all the time.  Because we sure as hell aren't getting good stuff for the main non-Regina characters anyway.  

[Mathius]

Wonderland got cancelled when it kept getting 0.9.  This season of Once would have to pull a Season 3 in terms of steadiness if it wants to avoid reaching those numbers.  If it follows even the trend of Season 5, then it's going to hit 0.9 by 2017 and making it likely to get cancelled. 

[Hookian]

53 minutes ago, Mathius said:

Wonderland got cancelled when it kept getting 0.9.  This season of Once would have to pull a Season 3 in terms of steadiness if it wants to avoid reaching those numbers.  If it follows even the trend of Season 5, then it's going to hit 0.9 by 2017 and making it likely to get cancelled. 

The TV Landscape has changed since 3 years ago. . TVGrimReaper says it's a sure bet for renewal already.

[sharky]

Amazing what an annual 25% loss in cable users can do to ratings. 

[CCTC]

9 minutes ago, sharky said:

Amazing what an annual 25% loss in cable users can do to ratings. 

I think TV viewing has changed as well - Hulu - Amazon Prime -- NetFlix etc have also erroded traditional ratings.  And as much as I like the show- it is in its 6th year.  Part of it is the natural aging -- esp. for a high concept show.    

[Serena]

14 hours ago, Mathius said:

Wonderland got cancelled when it kept getting 0.9.  This season of Once would have to pull a Season 3 in terms of steadiness if it wants to avoid reaching those numbers.  If it follows even the trend of Season 5, then it's going to hit 0.9 by 2017 and making it likely to get cancelled. 

Eh, that doesn't matter so much anymore IMO. It's been years. People have been screening HUGE PREMIERE at shows like Designated Survivor and This is Us when they barely reached... what, 2.3, 2.4? 

However, the numbers are bad. I think the only silver lining is that however bad OUAT's numbers are, the number of the other ABC Sunday shows are worse. If they cancel OUAT, they'd probably cancel those others first, and I doubt they want to rebuild Sunday night from scratch. But I think the best case scenario is S7 being the last season, which is good IMO.

[Mathius]

I sincerely doubt S7 is a possibility.  Not only did the premiere underperform, but even sites and sources that are generally less critical than us (IGN, the AV Club, etc.) have criticized it, and there seems to be more and more vocal dissatisfaction and lack of interest from fans.  Why would anyone even want this show to be renewed at this point?  The characters have run their course, the best story ideas are all used up, and as long as Adam and Eddy are the showrunners there's never going to be some miraculous recovery in quality.  I think I speak for most when I say that it's time to move on.

Edited September 27, 2016 by Mathius

[Souris]

17 hours ago, Hookian said:

The TV Landscape has changed since 3 years ago. . TVGrimReaper says it's a sure bet for renewal already.

That's not what he said. He tweeted that the premiere numbers have the show "probably safe from the reaper." Also, he said that ratings for a single episode of any show are "nearly irrelevant." It's the overall trend, among other things (such as show cost, cast contracts, the health of the rest of the network's shows, etc., etc.).

We'll see how the ratings hold up over the next few weeks. I think it could go either way, though I can't see it lasting past seven seasons. I wouldn't be surprised if S6 was the last, though I could also see them having a short S7 to wrap things up as more of an "event." If S6 is the last, I really hope they know soon so they can wrap things up and not end with things up in the air.

[Mathius]

Quote

We'll see how the ratings hold up over the next few weeks. I think it could go either way, though I can't see it lasting past seven seasons. I wouldn't be surprised if S6 was the last, though I could also see them having a short S7 to wrap things up as more of an "event." If S6 is the last, I really hope they know soon so they can wrap things up and not end with things up in the air.

This.  Given the previous ratings drop trends, I'm already calling this one to end anywhere between a 0.5 to a 0.7 average.  A seventh season would only happen on the guarantee that it was the last, and would most likely be a shorter one, probably the length of a usual half-season arc.

Edited September 27, 2016 by Mathius

[Serena]

I think if they have the cast under contract (they don't have to renegotiate their paycheck) they'll do a last one. Why not? They don't have anything better to put on Sunday and they can sell OUAT for Netflix for a lot of money for sure (it does very well there). Like I said, everything on Sunday already does worse than Once while getting more promotion.

[Camera One]

 I think I speak for most when I say that it's time to move on.

Never!  I'm here until the last deck chair on the sinking ship hits the water, even if we have a Season 10 where all the characters kneel before the Temple of Regina, since she's also Indiana Jones.

[KingOfHearts]

Quote

Never!  I'm here until the last deck chair on the sinking ship hits the water, even if we have a Season 10 where all the characters kneel before the Temple of Regina, since she's also Indiana Jones.

I'm in the same boat.

I don't think it's that there's nowhere else to go with the characters or the universe. I think the writers are just incapable of dishing out anything new. There are so many possibilities left to play with, but they would involve risk on A&E's part to get into. It's up to the fanfic writers, really.

Edited September 28, 2016 by KingOfHearts

[Free]

19 minutes ago, KingOfHearts said:

I'm in the same boat.

I don't think it's that there's nowhere else to go with the characters or the universe. I think the writers are just incapable of dishing out anything new. There are so many possibilities left to play with, but they would involve risk on A&E's part to get into. It's up to the fanfic writers, really.

Once has a great universe and had a very good set up with the characters in S1, other than that, it's been a waste of potential where the writers go for the easiest, laziest route as much as possible, ruining any tension there might be and becoming dull and repetitive as it is right now.

[Camera One]

Good thing is even dull dishwater can make great conversation.

[Free]

42 minutes ago, Camera One said:

Good thing is even dull dishwater can make great conversation.

It's more entertaining than the show itself tbh.

[Mathius]

18 hours ago, Serena said:

I think if they have the cast under contract (they don't have to renegotiate their paycheck) they'll do a last one. Why not? They don't have anything better to put on Sunday and they can sell OUAT for Netflix for a lot of money for sure (it does very well there). Like I said, everything on Sunday already does worse than Once while getting more promotion.

As I said, I think the most realistic option we're looking at is an 11-13 episode Season 7.  

I just can't imagine ABC ordering another full one if this one averages in the 0.5 - 0.7 range.

Even the Cancellation Bear thinks that a 0.6 or below would be bad for the show, and I can definitely see it getting that this season.

Edited September 28, 2016 by Mathius

[Hookian]

1 hour ago, Mathius said:

As I said, I think the most realistic option we're looking at is an 11-13 episode Season 7.  

I just can't imagine ABC ordering another full one if this one averages in the 0.5 - 0.7 range.

Even the Cancellation Bear thinks that a 0.6 or below would be bad for the show, and I can definitely see it getting that this season.

I think you're being a tad too extreme with that rating. I don't think it'll get a 0.6 or even be near that range. 

This show is incredibly stable, last year proved it. Yeah it had a drop but it barely moved from that drop all season. 

ABC has a lot of more shows to worry about than OUAT. Anyways I don't think this is the last season, they'll get a S7 and it may be shortened or it may be not. We'll have to see.

Every year the TV Landscape changes. It just goes to show how irrelevant Neilson is.

Edited September 28, 2016 by Hookian

[Mathius]

S5 was stable, as was S1 and S3.  But S2 was not, and neither was S4.  If the pattern holds true, neither will S6.

[Rumsy4]

Maybe we'll have a better idea in a few episodes. It's way too soon to tell after one episode.

[CCTC]

I don't think the show is as a bad as a lot of people on the board and still enjoy it.  I would like to see it get a season 7, although that should probably the last one.  Use that season to take the time to tell a few more adventures and then properly wrap things up.

[InsertWordHere]

I don't want this to be the last season because even if A&E were informed at the earliest possible moment (which would be when, January?), I don't think they would give themselves enough time to wrap up the show, and would instead focus on wrapping up the arc. I think a truncated Season 7, with enough episodes to finish off the story, but not enough for A&E to get distracted by new toys, would be the perfect way to go. 

[Mathius]

Quote

I think a truncated Season 7, with enough episodes to finish off the story, but not enough for A&E to get distracted by new toys, would be the perfect way to go. 

This is what I think too, which is why I'm hoping that will be the case. 

[Eolivet]

On 9/27/2016 at 6:35 PM, Serena said:

They don't have anything better to put on Sunday

I suppose I don't understand why moving it would be the worst thing in the world. It's not Sunday or nothing. Right now, ABC is starting off the night with a 1.2 to 1.3. Given the TV landscape, there is nowhere to go but down -- and 8PM shows are supposed to anchor the night. A show is an ineffective anchor if it's taking on water itself. If ABC had something doing a 1.8 or a 1.5 there, maybe Quantico or Secrets and Lies wouldn't be doing as poorly. It's old-fashioned audience flow, and the show is not providing them enough initial audience.

They have several better-rated options that could theoretically be moved to Sunday -- they've just chosen not to move them there. But anchoring the night with a 1.2 rating is silly, in my opinion. The show is doing well enough, by ABC standards, to renew it. I just don't believe it's doing well enough for it to justify its current time slot, that's all.

[stealinghome]

3 hours ago, Eolivet said:

I suppose I don't understand why moving it would be the worst thing in the world. It's not Sunday or nothing. Right now, ABC is starting off the night with a 1.2 to 1.3. Given the TV landscape, there is nowhere to go but down -- and 8PM shows are supposed to anchor the night. A show is an ineffective anchor if it's taking on water itself. If ABC had something doing a 1.8 or a 1.5 there, maybe Quantico or Secrets and Lies wouldn't be doing as poorly. It's old-fashioned audience flow, and the show is not providing them enough initial audience.

They have several better-rated options that could theoretically be moved to Sunday -- they've just chosen not to move them there. But anchoring the night with a 1.2 rating is silly, in my opinion. The show is doing well enough, by ABC standards, to renew it. I just don't believe it's doing well enough for it to justify its current time slot, that's all.

But the thing is, I don't think ABC has anywhere else to put OUAT for more than half a season. The show would be wasted at 9 or 10pm--it's always been labeled the "family-friendly" kid show, and has been written as such. And the family hour has always been 8pm. I doubt ABC sees it at 9 or 10pm long-term. 9pm is a stretch, no way the show goes to 10 long-term as a viable property--people are looking for adult drama at 10pm, Once is like the opposite of that.

Then you look at ABC's 8/9pm line-up. Mondays are DWTS, they're not moving that for OUAT--and DWTS goes 2 hours, so 9pm is out. They're not going to upend the Tuesday or Wednesday comedy blocks for OUAT either; the biggest possibility there imo would be the 9pm Tuesday hour, to lead into Agents of SHIELD (they won't let Once touch Wednesdays, between Modern Family and Designated Survivor), but then you have to shift your whole schedule around to accommodate moving FOB and Real O'Neals, since I don't see ABC putting two sitcoms on Sundays. Also they're hoping The Middle can stabilize the whole night and FOB/RON will stabilize--I think ABC really wants FOB and RON to do well. Thursday? lololol at the thought of ABC moving Grey's or any other Shonda production for Once. The only real possibility I see is moving Once to Fridays, so it depends on how wedded ABC is to LMS/Dr. Ken. But OUAT is so not compatible with Shark Tank or 20/20 (neither of which I see it unseating), and then you still have the problem of, does ABC really want two comedies on Sundays OR to juggle its whole schedule to move OUAT?

tl;dr, I actually think part of ABC's problem with Once is that it kind of is Sunday at 8pm or bust for the show. Maybe they exile it to Sunday at 10 and try to bump Quantico up an hour, but that's sending it to the graveyard. I agree that it shouldn't be anchoring a night anymore, but I don't think the issue is that ABC has nothing better to put there, I think it's that Once has nowhere else to go that makes sense.

Edited September 29, 2016 by stealinghome

[Eolivet]

I don't know, Last Man Standing is on its last legs and Dr. Ken hasn't set the world on fire. I could easily see them moving this show to Friday or even later on Sunday nights if they find something stronger to lead into it. There's precedent for fantasy TV on Friday nights. They could also pull a Grey's Anatomy and put this show in a problem spot where they've had problems keeping shows on the same night (Sunday at 9PM). That would likely lift Quantico (slightly) if it had a larger lead-in. And it would give them leave to do all the mature-themed scenes I keep hearing viewers want to see.

But to paraphrase Downton Abbey (who likely paraphrased someone else): every show is unmovable until it's moved.

Edited September 29, 2016 by Eolivet

[YaddaYadda]

Initially grabbing a 1.2 in the demos with 3.89mil viewers, season six’s premiere episode, “The Savior’’, ticked up one tenth to a 1.3 in the demos and ticked slightly up to a 4 million viewers.

This is a tad higher than where the season had ended last May.

source

[Curio]

Considering how bad the finale was and the lack of strong promotion going into the premiere, that's actually not terrible. It's not good, but it's not terrible.

[YaddaYadda]

19 minutes ago, Curio said:

Considering how bad the finale was and the lack of strong promotion going into the premiere, that's actually not terrible. It's not good, but it's not terrible.

ABC threw its money behind shows that didn't do all that well. Once got no promotion and did well, shows got promotion and didn't do so well. The people that are still watching will go down with the ship. I know that's my plan.

[orza]

The premier did well for not getting any promotion at all. The show has its audience and those people will tune in to watch with or without promotion so why spend the money. The show has also managed to hold it's own for five years when up against football and other event programming. It's doubtful that some of their other shows can do that in the Sunday time slot.

ABC still classifies the show as family entertainment so it is unlikely to move it to a later time slot. Sunday is still a big TV day and this is the kind of fluffy entertainment that is fun to watch as a family to wind down the weekend. A generic cop show doesn't have that appeal.

I think the show will get a full 7th season because to do a truncated season abc has to have something else to fill the time slot and keep that audience.

An 8th season seems very unlikely. It's pretty safe to assume that the actors all signed the standard Hollywood 7-year contracts. Re-signing them all would be expensive, even for one more year and some of the actors may want to move on to other projects when their initial contractual obligation is fulfilled, or just move back to Los Angeles and have more babies.

Edited September 29, 2016 by orza

[Rumsy4]

I wish abc did more to promote the show. Whether the Show gets a full or limited season you know A&E will try to cram-in as many new stories as possible, in addition to all the cameos. lol

[orza]

The only reason to promote the show is to try to attract new viewers. The network did do that in the past without much effect on the numbers. It doesn't make business sense to spend any money on promotion for this show if it doesn't produce the desired results.

[tri4335]

28 minutes ago, orza said:

The only reason to promote the show is to try to attract new viewers. The network did do that in the past without much effect on the numbers. It doesn't make business sense to spend any money on promotion for this show if it doesn't produce the desired results.

I agree. They're not getting anyone new on board at this point. They may get some to return but they can rely on Twitter, boards and word of mouth from other fans and save their budget for other shows.

I also think Season 7 will be the end since it would coincide with contracts. They may get some type of spin off show that would involve one or two characters but by no means would it be the full original cast.  Thought I don't even know if there would be interest in a spin off.

[TheGreenKnight]

4 hours ago, orza said:

The premier did well for not getting any promotion at all. The show has its audience and those people will tune in to watch with or without promotion so why spend the money. The show has also managed to hold it's own for five years when up against football and other event programming. It's doubtful that some of their other shows can do that in the Sunday time slot.

ABC still classifies the show as family entertainment so it is unlikely to move it to a later time slot. Sunday is still a big TV day and this is the kind of fluffy entertainment that is fun to watch as a family to wind down the weekend. A generic cop show doesn't have that appeal.

I think the show will get a full 7th season because to do a truncated season abc has to have something else to fill the time slot and keep that audience.

This is what I think, too. Unless there's a steep drop this season, 7 is likely, but that would definitely be the end. I can only imagine how much ABC Sunday's will be bombing when they don't even have OUAT to keep it on life support anymore. If they move Scandal, Thursday's will really collapse (Notorious is doing awful for a new show and HtGAwM is on the edge). I could see them moving Grey's to Sunday's. Or maybe Shark Tank? Who knows. They don't have much to work with.

[Free]

1 hour ago, TheGreenKnight said:

This is what I think, too. Unless there's a steep drop this season, 7 is likely, but that would definitely be the end. I can only imagine how much ABC Sunday's will be bombing when they don't even have OUAT to keep it on life support anymore. If they move Scandal, Thursday's will really collapse (Notorious is doing awful for a new show and HtGAwM is on the edge). I could see them moving Grey's to Sunday's. Or maybe Shark Tank? Who knows. They don't have much to work with.

Grey's is already the lynchpin on Thursdays and it's currently occupying the time slot that used to be full of flop shows, so there's no reason to dump it on Sundays when Thursdays are more important for them.

2 hours ago, tri4335 said:

I agree. They're not getting anyone new on board at this point. They may get some to return but they can rely on Twitter, boards and word of mouth from other fans and save their budget for other shows.

I also think Season 7 will be the end since it would coincide with contracts. They may get some type of spin off show that would involve one or two characters but by no means would it be the full original cast.  Thought I don't even know if there would be interest in a spin off.

The last spin off didn't do so well and Once isn't as strong as it used to be back then.

[stealinghome]

6 hours ago, Free said:

Grey's is already the lynchpin on Thursdays and it's currently occupying the time slot that used to be full of flop shows, so there's no reason to dump it on Sundays when Thursdays are more important for them.

This. Grey's carried ABC's dramas last season. No way is it moving any time soon.

HTGAWM is struggling, but in no small measure because iirc Scandal utterly tanked last season in the second half (and I think Notorious premiered weak, right?). I DO think ABC needs to stop the bleeding at 9pm on Thursdays, but moving OUAT there ain't the answer. I also don't think ABC would want to move HTGAWM to an 8pm slot--they'd have to drastically cut down some of the adult content, which is a big part of the show's appeal, lol!

[Free]

1 hour ago, stealinghome said:

This. Grey's carried ABC's dramas last season. No way is it moving any time soon.

HTGAWM is struggling, but in no small measure because iirc Scandal utterly tanked last season in the second half (and I think Notorious premiered weak, right?). I DO think ABC needs to stop the bleeding at 9pm on Thursdays, but moving OUAT there ain't the answer. I also don't think ABC would want to move HTGAWM to an 8pm slot--they'd have to drastically cut down some of the adult content, which is a big part of the show's appeal, lol!

Not to mention Grey's was moved from Sundays to Thursdays to begin with so that they could have a foothold on this day.

[Souris]

This year's ad rates.

Once is in the top-middle of ABC's rates, though with a 30% drop from last season.

[Souris]

Last night's fast-national ratings. Once had a 1.2 for the first half hour, dropped to a 1.0 in the second half hour, 1.1 overall. It's gonna go below 1.0 in a few eps.

[YaddaYadda]

I'm annoyed with the bait and switch promo they've been doing with Aladdin and Jasmine and I hope they actually are going to have some promotion when those 2 finally start airing. 

[RadioGirl27]

44 minutes ago, Souris said:

Last night's fast-national ratings. Once had a 1.2 for the first half hour, dropped to a 1.0 in the second half hour, 1.1 overall. It's gonna go below 1.0 in a few eps.

So people tuned out when they realised it was another pointless "Regina tries to kill Snow and fails" episode. Shocking!! (no, not really)

[maryle]

Ok, I didn't watched last episode and I am not sure I will. I wasn't interested in too much EQ and the eternal Snow feud. So, I do think it could bounce back to 1,2 next week and got the following with Aladdin, Jasmine and Emma Savior fate. The Nemo and Hook episode will also doing well.

 after that it will probably be settled down to 1,1 -1.0 until the break because I still consider it to be the floor.