Ratings and Scheduling: Who's the fairest of them all?

[Souris]

Yeah, he's doing a national address on terror at 8 p.m. Eastern. My guess is Once will simply start late, after the address ends. It's similar to what CBS does on Sunday nights when the 4:30 NFL game runs over time. It just sets the entire night's lineup back.

Edited December 6, 2015 by Souris

[PixiePaws1]

...perhaps he is colluding with the writers to amp up the angst! l am so expecting to be a dribbly sobbing mess n the floor that i am taking the afternoon off work! will be angry if i do that. ..prepare myself as best as I can with chocolate. ..and they reschedule :o ((((

[HoodlumSheep]

^ i'm not quite sure if it does (at least for abc). The last address I remember from him (not a state of the union), started when that adorable Selfie show usually started. Selfie picked up right where it would have currenty been if the show started at 8. Which was about 15-20 minutes into the episode.

Edited December 6, 2015 by HoodlumSheep

[Souris]

If it wipes out enough of the Eastern Broadcast, they may decide not to air it anywhere. Isn't that right after Football? I don't think even the President would interrupt Football. If the game goes long, they'll probably delay the press conference. Don't mess with Football.

 

I can imagine the howls of outrage if we leave in the middle of the Emma/Hook showdown and we return with everybody at Grannie's party.  

 

The Sunday night game starts at 8:30 p.m. My guess is his address will be over by then. I'm sure NBC hopes it is! The President is a sports fan, so he's aware of that.

 

I'm guessing the Canadian broadcast will start at 8 p.m. as usual, so stay off Twitter if you don't want spoilers before it starts here!

 

This is a midseason finale of one of ABC's big shows. They will catch hell if they don't show it in its entirety.

Edited December 6, 2015 by Souris

[kili]

Here is a rundown of what happened last time the President spoke to the nation. Some of the channels did not air it while ABC juggled it's East Coast line-up:

 

http://deadline.com/2014/08/president-obama-iraq-airstrikes-network-interruption-football-816335/

[Babs Gordon]

Please play on CTV, please play on CTV... *crosses fingers*

[OnceUponAJen]

East Coast here, and I am concerned about how the Presidential address will affect the schedule! I hope they'll delay it, and we won't miss anything.

[scenicbyway]

Crap. I'm out of the country and I bet my DVR will record the President's address instead of a later Once. It's not like it's the most important episode so far this season. Ugh.

You can bet they'll take the whole hour between waiting for him to come out and the spin afterwards

[Sarcastica]

Well, TV Line said they will update this with each network’s coverage plan/possible preemptions or delays, as they are determined. They expect President Obama's speech to be 15 minutes. Fox is already delaying their shows...so we will see. *fingers crossed*

 

ETA: From Adam

 

Attention #Oncers -- #OnceUponATime WILL air tomorrow night in its entirety as soon as the President's speech is done.  Hope to see you!

https://twitter.com/AdamHorowitzLA/status/673323890471374848

Edited December 6, 2015 by Sarcastica

[Souris]

ABC will start Once after POTUS's speech ends, per Adam. Also the above TVLine link has been updated for ABC to reflect that.

[Amerilla]

Adam just said on Twitter that the show will air in its entirety after the President's speech

[Camera One]

Too bad Merlin can't solve all our world's woes.  I wish they'd do these speeches in the 6pm hour, during the evening newscasts.  I get that more people would watch in "prime time" but 7:45pm would have been close enough.  And no commentary is necessary.

[Rumsy4]

I wonder how it will affect the ratings. To bad it's the winter finale!

[Camera One]

On nights like these, they could have had "The Bear King" on reserve.  

[HoodlumSheep]

I, too, wonder what the ratings will be like. I'm sure there will be plenty of people who'll turn the tv on at 8pm, see POTUS, and figure Once isn't on at all (and will watch something else instead). And there's football starting at the exact same time too (I know, I know: ratings bingo)..

Edited December 6, 2015 by HoodlumSheep

[sharky]

Yea but is it ratings bingo if everyone has to deal with the exact same thing? Is the playing field still relatively level? Because if everyone is assuming shows won't be on, Once may not have the same number of viewers but can get the same share of viewers.
 

[KAOS Agent]

DVR numbers could be off when people turn on their recording of Once and see they've got the president talking instead. If I knew I didn't have the last 20 minutes recorded, I wouldn't bother watching. Live watchers will definitely see a crawl or announcement onscreen telling them programming will resume following the address. Some may turn it off, but that would be consistent with all shows.

[YaddaYadda]

Yeah, my friend is organizing for POTUS speech for her news channel. I felt like crying when she told me about it. I had more wine after that.

[Tiger]

I'm on the east coast, and my affiliate just sent out a 'set your dvr's' alert that says Once will air in its entirety after the Presidential Address, repeat(s) of Goldbergs will be joined in progress, and then Quantico will air at its regularly scheduled time.

[Shanna Marie]

They haven't adjusted the schedule grid on my cable yet, so I added 30 minutes to the end of my set recording. We'll see if it works. I'll be watching live, anyway, but the recording is for detailed analysis later.

[sharky]

Yep, had to do the same thing. I'll probably be watching the president's speech too, but don't want to cut it off and start trying to record at a different time just in case.

[OnceUponAJen]

The schedule grid is the same here as well. OUAT is still shown to start at 7. I've added time to the end so I can capture the last 15 minutes. Excited to see this. Tissues within reach.

[sharky]

Spoiler TV is reporting a 1.4 for last night's episode with 4.83 million viewers. So viewers and share both went up from last week. That being said, it's the only site I can find the numbers on right now. I usually check TVbytheNumbers but they don't seem to be there. Also, SpoilerTV lists the show as starting at 8pm. I'm not sure if and how that is factoring in the president's speech.

[jjjmoss]

Half hour breakdowns for ABC:

8-830 1.443

830-9 1.300

9-930 1.091

[HoodlumSheep]

Half hour breakdowns for ABC:

8-830 1.443

830-9 1.300

9-930 1.091

So how do these numbers work, exactly? Sorry for my idiocy, but do they average the three time slots...or??? That drop in the 9-9:30 block is understandable though because of scheduling being all weird, I think. I don't know.

So is that goodish? Is there a chance it'll adjust down, up, stay flat?

Edited December 7, 2015 by HoodlumSheep

[Serena]

Yeah, there will probably be adjustments. Those are the preliminary numbers I guess.

[sharky]

Not just the scheduling being weird but also that the show only overran by 15 minutes, maybe 20. So some of that falloff is from Blood and Oil.

[Mathius]

Yeah, the huge drop off in the last half-hour is very blatantly due to Blood & Oil.

Otherwise, the finale did better than I expected.  I thought it'd be lower than 5x10, just as 4x11 was lower than 4x10.

Edited December 7, 2015 by Mathius

[mjgchick]

If that drop off is Blood and Oil then Jesus that show needs to be canceled.

[sharky]

It essentially has been already. ABC reduced their order from 13 episodes to 10, but let's be honest. That isn't a simple cut, it's a cancellation. They're just waiting it out before it's official.

 

Which does bring up an interesting issue. What about next year? Looks like they're pairing Once with a show called The Family -- "This thriller follows the return of a politician's young son who was presumed dead after disappearing over a decade earlier. As the mysterious young man is welcomed back into his family, suspicions emerge - is he really who he says he is?" But I mean, does that sound like a good pair? That 9pm slot is such a mess. They need a sci-fi/fantasy show to lead in from Once and they never do that so who knows if this new show will help boost Once.

[orza]

Shows are helped by their lead-in, not by what airs after them. If anything, the new show might be helped by having a well-established show like Once as a lead-in. I don't know about the premise of The Family, but Joan Allen, Rupert Graves and Andrew McCarthy are strong actors whom I would watch in just about anything so hopefully it will do better than Blood &Oil.

[jjjmoss]

In rare occasions, a whole-night lineup is helpful, or a show is so big that a leadout does in fact help the show before it.

For the first: TGIT. When Murder ended and was replaced by American Crime, Grey's/Scandal dropped an inordinate amount despite being higher-rated than Murder. I guess people really liked spending the whole 3 hours with Shonda.

For the second: Empire. While it's not technically proven, the big jump every week before it begins definitely makes people think that Rosewood is being propped up.

 

However, neither Once nor Family seem anything on the level of TGIT or Empire, so.

Edited December 7, 2015 by jjjmoss

[StaceyNotStacie]

I had no interest in Blood & Oil.  ABC should have renewed Forever and put it after Once Upon a Time.  The two shows probably would have been a good fit.

[Serena]

ABC really needs to start thinking of what they'll do on Sunday once OUAT ends. They need to stop with those "sexy" soaps and develop another show for the whole family that can take Once's place once it ends. I mean, I know Once is fucked up and no children should watch it, but you know.

[sharky]

But we've discussed this before. Children actually watch it and one of the reasons it gets a boost is because of the kids who watch and want to buy the merchandise. Go figure. But maybe if you paired it with some sort of adult fantasy show perhaps. I don't know. That 9pm spot has just been a death spot so anything could help at this point. Looking back, 2014 was Resurrection. 2013 was Revenge and Betrayal -- I don't even remember what that show was. 2012 was Revenge and 666 Park Avenue. Holy crap, didn't realize that Revenge was at 9pm on those days. (although holy crap, when people talk about Once going downhill, I just point to Revenge. I was hate-watching that show by the end.)

[YaddaYadda]

That 9pm spot has just been a death spot so anything could help at this point.

 

But then, in the 2 hour special Once had, the ratings held steady throughout. 

[Mathius]

Apparently, 5A was more successful than 4A and 4B by virtue of losing less viewers in both the key demo and the GA.

 

A 6th season is a shoe-in if they can keep up the steadiness in 5B.

Edited December 8, 2015 by Mathius

[jjjmoss]

Final is 1.3/4.56 million viewers.

 

Not as much its competition, but it beat everything on cable besides Real Housewives. 

 

1A 3.57

1B 3.13 (-12%)

2A 3.27 (+4%)

2B 2.35 (-28%)

3A 2.19 (-7%)

3B 2.18 (-less than a %)

4A 2.52

4B 1.82 (-17% vs. 3B)

5A 1.57 (-14%)

Edited December 8, 2015 by jjjmoss

[Mathius]

Down 14% is impressive, there have been worse drops in the past.

[HoodlumSheep]

Down 14% is impressive, there have been worse drops in the past.

Yep, not the worst. once better pump some money into advertising this half to see if they can boost the ratings a little. I didn't think they did too much for this half (I thought advertising was on par with 4b for the most part).

[Serena]

Yes, and only the last two eps actually dropped.

[Mathius]

And the second of the last two had a rise (at least in viewership numbers), which was untrue of the 3A and 4A finales.

[jjjmoss]

So the demo #s were down a tad for the finale: from 1.349 to 1.334. So down 1.12%. 

[Souris]

Once's ratings took a drop in December last year, too. That happens. It's the normal ratings pattern for a season premiere to have the season's highest ratings, then they tail off. Once didn't get the usual bump from the S4 finale to the S5 premiere, so the normal in-season decline has left it with series lows.

[Writing Wrongs]

Why do they have such a long ass break? I hate having to wait until March.

[Camera One]

I guess it's the age-old question of which is worse. A long hiatus, or a couple of breaks in the midst of a half-season.

[KingOfHearts]

Why do they have such a long ass break? I hate having to wait until March.

 

Do similar-scaled shows take as long?

[sharky]

Some do, some don't. Agents of Shield is on the same hiatus -- their fill-in show is Agent Carter. And then some shows don't have as long of a break like Castle, but a show like that is more case of the week and less on-going narrative like Once or Agents. This is actually a trend that was started by Lost and has become much more prevalent in recent years. Bu yea, this is becoming a new normal in the industry.

[Shanna Marie]

Didn't they partially blame the ratings freefall in season 2 on having lots of breaks in the middle, where for a while it was like two weeks on, a week off? Theoretically, that was the idea behind the Wonderland spinoff, that they would have one big gap instead of lots of little breaks, and they'd fill in the gap with Wonderland. But then a clever executive (who did later admit that it was a bad call) changed the plan and put Wonderland on Thursday nights instead of filling the gap.

[orza]

The premium cable channels started the trend with their short seasons of 10 to 13 or so episodes aired weekly without interruption and then a long break until the next season. Basic cable picked up on that idea and eventually introduced the split season with shows like White Collar and Leverage, The commercial networks started adopting this format after basic cable demonstrated that the ratings and viewer numbers are more stable with the split season because viewers know they can count on a new episode every week for a known period of time. Lots of shows on all the commercial networks are on this schedule now.

 

The traditional approach of showing episodes whenever with frequent short unpredictable breaks or reruns is confusing and frustrating for viewers and eventually leads to viewer attrition because many people don't have the patience to track down their shows to learn when new episodes will air, so they wait until it's on Netflix or DVDs come out or give up on the show entirely.

Edited December 30, 2015 by orza