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Season 41 & 42: Spoilers and Speculation


LadyChatts
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1 hour ago, Lamima said:

Michele won season 32 that way. Very very purple edit. 

I didn't see it that way. They showed enough of Michele where I personally easily understood how she won. They also showed her pretty consistently in the beginning even when her tribe was winning, which felt like a pretty clear indicator to me that she won since she's not the type they normally show in that manner.

Heather has none of that. If she does make F3 and if the edit stays the way it is now, she'll easily be the most invisible F3 player ever, I think. Now granted, I don't remember much of a season once it's over so!

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I agree, peach. People have brought up other invisible or poorly edited winners such as Natalie White, Bob, or Michele, but none has been as invisible as Heather. Especially upon rewatch of those seasons, you can see their winner arc, subtle as it may be. Heather, OTOH - I mean, when you've become a joke and a meme by midway through the season - people literally asking "who's the blonde?", well, it would be a very strange editing choice should she make it to F3.

Preview for this week: 

Double boot week - divided into two teams, with one immunity winner/one boot from each.

Blue team: Danny, Deshawn, Liana, Xander, Evvie

Yellow team: Shan, Ricard, Naseer, Erika, Heather

Edited by kassandra8286
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On 11/4/2021 at 10:43 AM, ProfCrash said:

Xander was smug as hell when he made his play. I mean, he was oozing smugness. If he makes it to the end then he will have had to win a ton of immunity challenges or found other advantages and idols that he played well. All of which could see him behaving in a similar fashion which is really going to rub people the wrong way.

And Shan, Ricard, and Liana all strike me as people who are not going to appreciate being beaten by advantages. They are happy if they have them and can use them but someone else doing so is not going to sit well.

Erika and Heather strike me as people who can be influenced on how to vote back at Ponderosa.

 

Profcrash, I agree, Shan, Ricard and Liana do seem kind the type who do not appreciate a good advantage/idol play, unless, of course, it's one they stole from someone else, lol

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9 hours ago, kassandra8286 said:

Blue team: Danny, Deshawn, Liana, Xander, Evvie

I mean, seems like Evvie is a goner unless she wins immunity.  If she does, Xander has his idol (and an extra vote), so then things get interesting.

9 hours ago, kassandra8286 said:

Yellow team: Shan, Ricard, Naseer, Erika, Heather

I'd love to see Shan turn the tables on Ricard and vote him out, but it'll probably be Erika or Heather. 

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This week could be two boring votes or maybe exciting ones (or one of each).  I do think it'd be funny if Ricard doesn't think Shan needs to use the extra vote, as implied by last week's end-of-episode preview, and gets voted off as a result.  It'd also be interesting if we see that Erika/Heather/Naseer are a tight voting block after all, although considering Heather wanted Naseer gone last week, I have my doubts on that part.  I could see Heather going, actually.  Naseer and maybe even Erika join Shan/Ricard.  That could explain Heather's sudden uptick in airtime, and that she seems all over the place that they may feel she's not trustworthy to keep around.  

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14 hours ago, kassandra8286 said:

Double boot week - divided into two teams, with one immunity winner/one boot from each.

Blue team: Danny, Deshawn, Liana, Xander, Evvie

Yellow team: Shan, Ricard, Naseer, Erika, Heather

And this makes the GwG spoiler make more sense.

The question is about a situation like this, where an alliance is split among among separate teams that have to make separate votes.  And whether alliance members should stick together in this situation, or if playing the individual game (ie, voting out an ally because the rest of the temp tribe is against them) is better.  Specifically, the question is whether alliances should discuss the possibility in advance and plan for the eventuality.

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So in the event Evvie goes this week, I feel like Erika winning becomes more of a possibility.  Right now I have a hard time envisioning Shan, Liana, or Heather taking it.  Erika's edit has been quiet, but we did see the line of her saying she wanted to play like a lion, she did have a big move with her advantage in breaking the hour glass, and she might be able to rally Naseer and Heather in taking out Shan or Ricard.  Naseer's kind of a wild card for me in how he'll vote.  Nice guy, but doesn't seem terribly bright at the game going on around him.  If Erika somehow convinces Shan to either not play her idol/advantage, or even better, to hand one of them over to her to establish trust and then votes Shan out, I'll really believe she's winning.  

I'm still a little skeptical of the spoilers that are out there after Tiffany went last week, but we'll see.  Considering they aren't making a big deal about the black alliance does make me think that part is true, that someone betrays that group, and TPTB didn't want to make it a big deal on the show so whoever betrays it (rumored to be Deshawn, which I can believe) doesn't get a lot of blow back.  Unless the black alliance succeeds and we get a major flashback episode of how they pulled it off, but I don't know that they would edit something like that in that way.  

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Now that we know Evvie is in the jury, that adds one piece to the puzzle of the anti-Xander campaign.  She'll vote for Heather if Heather got dragged to the end just to give it to a woman, but I also wonder if she's bitter that Xander didn't bother to use his idol and save her.  I mean seriously, it seems like he might lose simply because he's a 20-something white guy that could be line up with the likes of Malcolm and Ozzy.

So does Deshawn end up turning on his allies?  Next week's preview looks promising, but I wonder if it's less about him turning on his black alliance, and more that he just turned on his regular alliance.  If that happens.  He's running out of options, because Liana/Shan/Ricard seem solid.  I have no idea where exactly Danny stands.  If he does flip, then next week would probably be the week to do it, since there's still numbers and Xander's extra vote.  

I'm actually scared who might win this season lol  

Edited by LadyChatts
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I can definitely see how Xander loses this game after tonight. Him not using his idol to save Evie could come back to bite him. Comments during the challenge about how smug he looked. Xander may be playing a good game, but he seems to be rubbing people the wrong way. I don't know if Erika or Heather wins this, but I don't see how Xander wins if he is in the final 3 after that negative content.

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29 minutes ago, TVFan1 said:

I can definitely see how Xander loses this game after tonight. Him not using his idol to save Evie could come back to bite him. Comments during the challenge about how smug he looked. Xander may be playing a good game, but he seems to be rubbing people the wrong way. I don't know if Erika or Heather wins this, but I don't see how Xander wins if he is in the final 3 after that negative content.

What's funny is, if they are trying to make Xander look bad, they are making almost everyone else left look worse (or nearly invisible).  Assuming the spoilers are true, and he gets chewed out at the FTC, then I'm wondering how much they will show.  Like, will they paint the others badly and bitter?  Xander as sympathetic?  It as some coming-of-Survivor moment?  If Liana does make a note that he failed to make social bonds like the spoilers say, what you said above probably goes along with that.  And Xander also goes on an immunity run, which seems like the only logical way he makes it to the end.  I honestly can't wait for Liana to get eliminated because maybe she'll explain why she's so bitter towards Xander. 

I actually saw an interesting theory on Reddit about how it's possible that Heather wins, even with a minimal edit.  Something about how this could be part of the new era of Survivor, and that even if you aren't always winning challenges, being in charge, or are dragged to the end without really playing your own game, you can still win-just don't always expect a big edit.  Which, with this new and improved Survivor, on top of who potentially makes up the jury, I can believe it.  Similarly, this could apply to Erika.  

If Deshawn betrays his alliance, I can't believe that doesn't happen next week.  However, I think it's possible Ricard isn't the target in the end.  

Edited by LadyChatts
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12 hours ago, LadyChatts said:

I mean seriously, it seems like [Xander] might lose simply because he's a 20-something white guy that could be line up with the likes of Malcolm and Ozzy.

Love it lol.

9 hours ago, LadyChatts said:

Assuming the spoilers are true, and [Xander] gets chewed out at the FTC, then I'm wondering how much they will show.  Like, will they paint the others badly and bitter?  Xander as sympathetic?  It as some coming-of-Survivor moment?

They will make Xander look sympathetic and the others look bad. Xander is too much of Jeff's type for them not to do that.

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12 hours ago, TVFan1 said:

I can definitely see how Xander loses this game after tonight. Him not using his idol to save Evie could come back to bite him. Comments during the challenge about how smug he looked. Xander may be playing a good game, but he seems to be rubbing people the wrong way. I don't know if Erika or Heather wins this, but I don't see how Xander wins if he is in the final 3 after that negative content.

I can see the smug in Xander, his response when he blew up Liana's play to steal his idol was flat out swarmy. It was a great play and well laid out and acted by all three of the yellow tribe but he was so proud of himself. I get it but reign it in man.

Nothing about his demeanor yesterday struck me as off. Liana is just bitter and doesn't like Xander. She was targeting him before the merge, which I understand from a pure game play stand point. Xander could have had an idol and an advantage. Liana saw that as a threat. But she has taken her legit reasons for wanting them out and made them very personal. Her comments last night had nothing to do with any thing Xander was showing at that challenge and everything to do with Liana deciding he is evil personified.

At least Xander is a legit threat who should be targeted, Shan's recent obsession with Heather is baffling me. There is probably more to it then we have seen, especially since there seems to be a possibility that Heather wins, but it feels really random. More like, Shan is pissed that Heather tried to disrupt Shan's plan for the last tribal because Heather had a different idea.

12 hours ago, LadyChatts said:

What's funny is, if they are trying to make Xander look bad, they are making almost everyone else left look worse (or nearly invisible).  Assuming the spoilers are true, and he gets chewed out at the FTC, then I'm wondering how much they will show.  Like, will they paint the others badly and bitter?  Xander as sympathetic?  It as some coming-of-Survivor moment?  If Liana does make a note that he failed to make social bonds like the spoilers say, what you said above probably goes along with that.  And Xander also goes on an immunity run, which seems like the only logical way he makes it to the end.  I honestly can't wait for Liana to get eliminated because maybe she'll explain why she's so bitter towards Xander.

I don't think they are trying to make Xander look bad. I think Xander is actually getting a good edit. He has been active, he really hasn't said much negative about other players, and he has made some solid moves. I think they are showing how transparent his game is (Sitting out for Erika and then sitting out the immunity challenge for rice) but that doesn't make him look bad.

I am not seeing much that says that Xander has angered anyone, other then Liana. Clearly Xander has not made his way into the blue majority, but that isn't all that surprising. I don't know that it says much about his social game.

Heather has been invisible except when she hasn't been. Her move at tribal last week and then he work with Erika and Ricard this week. She played the tribal perfectly to keep Nasser feeling safe. I think you could say the same for Erika, she has been invisible except when she hasn't been. It could be that Heather and Erika are less massive schemers and more quite players who are hard to edit in the game. Erika and Heather were called out as being a tight two, we didn't see anything to explain that until tonight. They are both in the lower half of the blue alliance but seemed to know when to work with blue. Maybe they have a better idea about the fractions in Blue and how to exploit them but they are less obvious about it then others.

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I honestly think Evvie's speech will be more along the lines of why women deserve more credit for the games they play (this could be especially relevant if Heather somehow ends up winning with the quiet edit she's had), and less about piling on Xander.  She could just be making the point that woman often get ignored for what they did in the game and any moves they made were credited to the guys.  I do think Liana will be doing plenty of piling on, though. 

After reading that exit interview with Evvie, I can see more and more how Xander loses.  It does sound like his social game was lacking.

In addition, if Deshawn happens to be one of the three finalists, I also can see how he probably loses, too, if he screws over his alliance.  I'm still wondering if that spoiler about Heather/Erika making the final 3 happens.

 

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Who could Xander play the social game with?  The yellow team was out to get the men out pronto.  How could Xander trust Evvie and Tiffany?  Even if he had played his idol for Evvie or Tiffany, they showed no loyalty to him.  He can't get in the Ricard/Shan twosome, or the Cook Out Group.  He might have a chance with Erika/Heather, plus Ricard at some point will have to realize he is the fifth wheel on the four person alliance. 

Edited by Tippi
ETA: He did try to win food twice for the group, and he did give up his spot for Erika. That's something he could point to as social game.
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GwG spoiler:

Next episode features the classic Survivor reward dilemma.  If you win a reward and get to choose people to share it with you, do you choose allies to celebrate or do you take non-allies to try to curry their vote at the finals?

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12 hours ago, LadyChatts said:

I honestly think Evvie's speech will be more along the lines of why women deserve more credit for the games they play (this could be especially relevant if Heather somehow ends up winning with the quiet edit she's had), and less about piling on Xander.  She could just be making the point that woman often get ignored for what they did in the game and any moves they made were credited to the guys.  I do think Liana will be doing plenty of piling on, though. 

After reading that exit interview with Evvie, I can see more and more how Xander loses.  It does sound like his social game was lacking.

In addition, if Deshawn happens to be one of the three finalists, I also can see how he probably loses, too, if he screws over his alliance.  I'm still wondering if that spoiler about Heather/Erika making the final 3 happens.

 

Xander supposedly had a watch party with Heather (who he hasn't worked with yet), Brad, and Abraham this week in his town. If he is so "hated" why are all these people 30 years older than traveling over 1000 miles to go and hangout with him?

On top of that Brad's daughter follows Xander and Erika on social media along with the pre-mergers Voce and Sydney. 

I think we might have a Xander/Heather/Erika F3 on our hands. 

If that's really the F3 it explains why they aren't showing Erika and Heather making alliances he prob beats them both. 

Edited by anthonyd46
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We do know that the winner was revealed on location, like back in the first season.  So part of me is wondering if the ongoing anti-Xander sentiment is because he won.  And players are either upset that happened (Liana) or are trying to hide that information and going a bit far in trying to downplay his win (likely Tiffany).

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Just now, SVNBob said:

We do know that the winner was revealed on location, like back in the first season.  So part of me is wondering if the ongoing anti-Xander sentiment is because he won.  And players are either upset that happened (Liana) or are trying to hide that information and going a bit far in trying to downplay his win (likely Tiffany).

Exactly. Like they are cutting off content to the point of Erika and Heather where they are about to speak and they cut away from the camera. However now that we are in the end game it looks like Erika and Heather started to get that push last episode, because these three probably work together to get to the end. Problem is Xander didn't have the greatest game moments for most of the game so they had to subdue the other 2 edits like they did for Gavin and Julie in EOE. I do think theres a slight chance Deshawn could be there and Erika could be 4th, because his flip flopping could make him lose votes, but people crowding around Xander like this is highly suspicious for someone who we are supposed to believe was hated out there. Which we haven't seen him hated in the edit outside of Liana and Tiffany as you said.

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I hope Xander wins. And Erika gets to the end. I like them. But I am suspecting the AA 4 person alliance Pajongs their way through. I feel like the show saw all the negative feedback from BB's Cookout so they have to kinda keep the AA alliance on the down low. Then get a big ol' montage late in the game. Maybe they are using false rumors to also keep the lid on the pot until the eggs are cooked...so to speak. I mean, think about it...next week Erika or Heather don't have a chance...and Xander NEEDS to play one if his goodies. 

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25 minutes ago, Lamima said:

I hope Xander wins. And Erika gets to the end. I like them. But I am suspecting the AA 4 person alliance Pajongs their way through. I feel like the show saw all the negative feedback from BB's Cookout so they have to kinda keep the AA alliance on the down low. Then get a big ol' montage late in the game. Maybe they are using false rumors to also keep the lid on the pot until the eggs are cooked...so to speak. I mean, think about it...next week Erika or Heather don't have a chance...and Xander NEEDS to play one if his goodies. 

To be fair they edited this show before this season of BB aired and since BB is live they would have no way of knowing it happens by then.

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4 minutes ago, anthonyd46 said:

To be fair they edited this show before this season of BB aired and since BB is live they would have no way of knowing it happens by then.

They filmed before BB aired but could they not edit it anytime?

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I don’t know why the possibility isn’t there for an Erika or Heather (or heck even a Danny) win.  They’ve talked all season about how this is a new era of Survivor.  It doesn’t mean they have to stick to the script of the winner being visible or shown doing anything or making bonds or being an underdog.  And with the flashback sequence we’ve had this season they could easily start summing up a potential winners game.  
 

Trust me, I want Xander to win.  And I never said people hated him, I just felt his game wasn’t respected.  I don’t believe he’ll have Evvie, Liana, or Shan’s votes at least.  

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27 minutes ago, LadyChatts said:

I don’t know why the possibility isn’t there for an Erika or Heather (or heck even a Danny) win.  They’ve talked all season about how this is a new era of Survivor.  It doesn’t mean they have to stick to the script of the winner being visible or shown doing anything or making bonds or being an underdog.  And with the flashback sequence we’ve had this season they could easily start summing up a potential winners game.  
 

Trust me, I want Xander to win.  And I never said people hated him, I just felt his game wasn’t respected.  I don’t believe he’ll have Evvie, Liana, or Shan’s votes at least.  

While there maybe could be a small shot for Danny or Erika but i highly doubt it cause of the editing I can guarentee Heather doesn't win based on exit interviews and edit.

Heather has been called strange confused demonic and today was compared to a dead possum. You do not describe winners that way. 

 

Edited by anthonyd46
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1 hour ago, anthonyd46 said:

While there maybe could be a small shot for Danny or Erika but i highly doubt it cause of the editing I can guarentee Heather doesn't win based on exit interviews and edit.

Heather has been called strange confused demonic and today was compared to a dead possum. You do not describe winners that way. 

 

 Erika can definitely play up being on the bottom, not having allies that had the majority, and the move she made breaking the hourglass, even though she knew it might turn people against her.  I do think it'd be an incredibly interesting outcome if Heather wins, because the only logic I can see there is that they just want a female winner (meaning the jury), and that they pick someone unconventional.  Because unless they do prove it in flashbacks, Heather's game seems to be chaotic when she's trying to do something herself, and she seems to just follow someone else's lead.

I am still hoping Xander surprises and wins, but I'm not overly confident on that yet.

Edited by LadyChatts
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3 hours ago, LadyChatts said:

 Erika can definitely play up being on the bottom, not having allies that had the majority, and the move she made breaking the hourglass, even though she knew it might turn people against her.  I do think it'd be an incredibly interesting outcome if Heather wins, because the only logic I can see there is that they just want a female winner (meaning the jury), and that they pick someone unconventional.  Because unless they do prove it in flashbacks, Heather's game seems to be chaotic when she's trying to do something herself, and she seems to just follow someone else's lead.

I am still hoping Xander surprises and wins, but I'm not overly confident on that yet.

While I get what you are saying and Erika could sell that sure, but as far as Heather calling someone a Dead Possum and a Demon aren't exactly words of people that would vote for her on a jury. I just don't see it.

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30 minutes ago, anthonyd46 said:

While I get what you are saying and Erika could sell that sure, but as far as Heather calling someone a Dead Possum and a Demon aren't exactly words of people that would vote for her on a jury. I just don't see it.

Okay if Evvie actually said that about her then I can believe she won't win.  Unless they are all in on some weird joke to surprise the audience lol  Were these in exit interviews?  

Edited by LadyChatts
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2 hours ago, Lamima said:

Question: just saw a preview for Survivor where it was said 'only 3 more episodes until finale'. So how do we get to F3...another double boot week or have 5 going into finale? 

There is supposedly that do or die twist that hasn't happened yet-if I'm understanding it right, it is absolutely ridiculous.  Someone flips a coin at TC and it determines their fate of whether they stay or go.  They don't get to be protected by an idol or advantage.  It was already posted here in this thread, but here's a summary from reddit about how it's supposed to work and how the person gets into that position.  So my guess is, that week may be a double boot-someone goes home the traditional way, and someone goes home this way.

 

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36 minutes ago, peachmangosteen said:

3 eps left before the finale would take us to a 5 person finale, which is how it's been for awhile now, hasn't it? So either the do or die twist just leaves 1 person going or we have a 4 person finale.

Since it's a shorter season (26 days over 39 days) I would think maybe a 4 person finale?  I have to think there's a double boot episode somewhere.  If the do or die twist is correct, then two people would potentially go home that week.  I guess there's always a chance that whoever flips the coin for the twist gets to stay in.  

There's 8 people left, right?  Take out the 3 people who are in the finals, and that leaves 5 who still have to get their torch snuffed.   

Edited by LadyChatts
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1 hour ago, kassandra8286 said:

I read the finale is 3 hours so I think it has to be 5 people. With this crazy season who the hell knows though, lol.

I think the last hour is dedicated to the reunion show.  I mean, they've had 5 person finales before so it's possible.  I think it will come down to that do or die twist and if someone goes because of that (assuming Redmond is right about that twist).  

I'm hoping and praying Shan goes tonight.  With there being focus on Ricard, it makes me think he probably won't go.  There's a couple new sneak peeks I posted in the previews thread that shows Erika is taking to Deshawn about targeting the people with idols, namely Shan.  I'd love for her to go out with her idol in her pocket, or incorrectly play it on Ricard (bonus points if Ricard votes for her).  If the first set of spoilers are correct, I have to think Deshawn will be flipping soon.  

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9 minutes ago, LadyChatts said:

I think the last hour is dedicated to the reunion show

There's not exactly a "reunion" show this time.  The final vote was read live on location, and the post-game interviews that the reunions mainly consist of feature were done there too.

That means they have footage to edit down to as little as they want.  Half an hour to 45 minutes (22 to 33 after ad breaks) tops.

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I would hope that they are doing something live, not that they do that well. The situation changed and people are flying again. When they shot the show and the finale they had no clue if they would be able to have a reunion. People are traveling again allowing for something different. 

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So next week-do or die twist is here.  

Spoilers seem to be aligning in place.  Heather's comment about not making the big decisions tonight was interesting, and makes me wonder if the speculation that she might win comes true, or at least makes the final 3 and does have some big move.  I am hoping for Erika or Xander, although at this point I think I'd be okay with anyone but Liana.  She's too much of an emotional sourpuss for me.  Danny and Heather are boring and haven't done much, so they'd be my bottom tier group.  I think Erika and Xander are my top 2, then Deshawn and Ricard.  Who knew I'd be okay with him winning (I'm sure he'll do something to change my mind next week). 

 

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I think Erika is going to win.  This was a big episode for her edit wise. She was the first one to suggest voting out Shan and she got the last word in terms of the actual plan. We have also had multiple now talking about how dangerous she is as a player. If she gets to the end  she wins.  

Xander seems to be a nonentity game plan wise at this point.  I just can't see him winning.

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Putting aside the spoilers, I think Erika, Deshawn, or Ricard take it.  Ricard has had a miserable edit, but it wouldn't be the first time someone portrayed as a villain won.  The move against Shan tonight was huge.  The bigger question is, what does he do now?  Similarly, Deshawn hasn't had the best edit from a personality standpoint, but from a game stand point I think he's been stronger than some of those left.  Erika coming out of nowhere, though, is impressive, and she was the one who wanted to split the vote with Liana.  Somehow she got them to agree with that.  I can actually buy the final 3 spoiler of Erika/Heather/Xander.  Of course, we'll see what happens with the do or die twist next week..  I don't see Danny winning, because he's had a quiet edit with not a lot of game play.    

I can see how Xander loses, and maybe why he gets called out.  He may very well try and take credit for moves that weren't his, which could lead into Evvie's whole speech about men getting credit for moves that aren't theirs.  They really aren't giving him any edit in terms of game play.  The most impressive thing he's done so far is not play his idol, despite there being a real risk he goes home.  I think his game started out strong, but hasn't been that strong since the merge.  He doesn't even have any real allies left.  He's just there as a number.

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Erika could easily win this whole thing, and I'm definitely okay with that. Her plan to split the vote between Shan and Liana was brilliant. I don't know how she managed to get everyone else to agree to it. 

The way it looks, the final 3 could very well be Xander / Erika / Heather with an Erika win.

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1 hour ago, LadyChatts said:

After tonight I can see Erika winning.  In next weeks preview we see Deshawn approach Xander about a final 3.  I definitely think Xander and Erika are final 3 at least.

If next week's preview is any indication, I can see where Erika wins if the final 3 are Deshawn / Erika / Xander. 

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