2020 Awards Season

[Ms Blue Jay]

11 hours ago, truthaboutluv said:

Similarly, Laura Dern is the favorite right now to win Supporting Actress for Marriage Story and having seen the film, I can't tell you why that is.

Sure, she was fun and she has one big moment in the film with a funny empowering speech about women and mothers. But is that alone Oscar worthy? I don't think so but she'll likely win and it's all good. 

That's my point.  Laura Dern has become the favourite this year, but I don't think that performance was worthy.

Brad Pitt has become the favourite this year, but I don't think the performance was worthy.

It's all politics and "rewarding" people and that's what annoys the hell out of me.  So rarely that non-white people are rewarded in the same way.  Denzel was - ONCE.  LOL.   (I'm referencing Training Day, not Glory, where people didn't really think Denzel gave the best performance that year OR, that his role in TD was inferior to others where he was nominated and better.)

We can say it's subjective etc. etc. but there are actual metrics.  For example, I pointed out that Uncut Gems is at 96% or whatever on RT- no matter what you think of critics or the movie or reviews it is "Critically acclaimed", that is a fact.  Yet, absolutely no big awards traction.  These awards are all political and have nothing to do with ratings or even box office, it just seems to be political and how we can reward the most white people every year year after year.  (I know that Adam is white, but whatever, the point for me remains).

I guess my major disagreement with you is on this: "it's all good".   For me, it's not "all good".  Just because I like an actor, doesn't mean I agree they should be rewarded because everyone thinks they're handsome or due or whatever.

Here's another metric:  Margot Robbie hardly had any lines in OUATIH.  (Did anyone count them?  I'm so curious.)  She did a lot of standing around.  I don't think there's any argument to be made that she deserves to be nominated for Best Supporting Actress.  She's not even in the same scenes with the leads that she's supposedly supporting, so what is she supporting?

Edited January 9, 2020 by Ms Blue Jay

[truthaboutluv]

I think we are talking about different things here. Because I was under the impression that this was just about one person's opinion that Pitt's performance could in any way be better than Pacino and Pesci (who last I checked were all white), which is why I commented on these things being subjective, because it is.

Case in point, there are many comments across forums from people who loathed Joker with the fire of a thousand suns, including Joaquin’s performance and those who just think the movie and Joaquin was greatest thing since sliced bread. That was all my comment was about. I wasn't aware I was having a discussion about the lack of representation at these awards (because yeah, not breaking news) or that these awards are as much about politics as performance. 

Because who, in this day and age, if interested in Awards, doesn't know that’s it’s as much about campaigning as it is performance. That's hardly some big industry secret. All the critics and industry experts literally make comments like "he's/she’s running an excellent campaign", "I hear voters like him or her so much", etc. etc.

I remember last year, before the SAG Awards, the Goldderby editor and guy from Indiewire were discussing how Goldderby users were still split on whether Bale or Malek would win Best Actor and the Indiewire guy said he was surprised there was still a split because it was so obviously going to be Rami Malek.

When asked why he was so sure, his response was that just from talking to people around LA and in the industry and the consensus was how much people like Rami, how everyone thought he was such a humble and nice guy, how hard he was campaigning, etc. Again, the award campaigning is in nowhere some secret. 

Edited January 9, 2020 by truthaboutluv

[methodwriter85]

On 1/7/2020 at 10:34 AM, AshleyN said:

I'm not sure it'll be that much better at the Oscars though. I doubt there will be a full #Oscarssowhite again, as at least one of Lupita/Awkwafina/Cynthia Erivo is likely getting into best actress (maybe two, given what a no1curr Bombshell turned out to be), and JLo still looks good for a nomination at least. Beyond that though, who's even in contention? Maybe Song Kang-ho for Parasite gets in as a passion pick, given how up-for-grabs that fifth slot in supporting actor is?

Queen and Slim really seemed like it was set up to be in the awards category, but it didn't really take off, the same way that The Hate U Give (which I thought was going to be Amandla Stenberg's breakout role) didn't last year. It gets frustrating to me, because it's like people claim to want dramatic movies that star people that aren't white or engage in the White Saviour complex, but then those movies don't get supported all that well while Madea 6 makes like 80 million dollars. I work at a movie theater that has a large African-American audience and the same thing keeps playing out.

Edited January 9, 2020 by methodwriter85

[Ms Blue Jay]

John Cho and Issa Rae will read the Oscar nominations.

Funny how the Academy puts two non-white people front and center.  Haha.  To be all like, we're so diverse!

Very curious to see if the nominations are, too!

https://ew.com/oscars/2020/01/09/how-watch-2020-oscar-nominations/

[Ohiopirate02]

13 hours ago, Ms Blue Jay said:

 

Here's another metric:  Margot Robbie hardly had any lines in OUATIH.  (Did anyone count them?  I'm so curious.)  She did a lot of standing around.  I don't think there's any argument to be made that she deserves to be nominated for Best Supporting Actress.  She's not even in the same scenes with the leads that she's supposedly supporting, so what is she supporting?

I am a firm believer that acting requires more than dialog.  I have not seen OUATIH to judge Margot's largely silent portrayal, but I was blown away with Anna Paquin in The Irishman.  She (and the actress who played the younger Peggy) did so much work with her looks and body language, that dialog was not necessary.  

 

Now I need to watch Margot to see how her performance compares to Annas.

[Ms Blue Jay]

3 hours ago, Ohiopirate02 said:

I am a firm believer that acting requires more than dialog. 

I've never claimed the opposite.  But, Margot's role in OUATIH was not much acting in my opinion.

It's not just that it was "largely silent".  She is barely in the movie period.

There are silent movies, for example, and there are mute actors, and mute characters.  There is wonderful acting in and from both.  

Edited January 9, 2020 by Ms Blue Jay

[Shannon L.]

3 hours ago, Ohiopirate02 said:

I am a firm believer that acting requires more than dialog.  I have not seen OUATIH to judge Margot's largely silent portrayal, but I was blown away with Anna Paquin in The Irishman.  She (and the actress who played the younger Peggy) did so much work with her looks and body language, that dialog was not necessary.  

 

Now I need to watch Margot to see how her performance compares to Annas.

A better example of this, from Margot, is the scene in Bombshell where she meets Roger Ailes for the 1st time. Her silent reaction to his request made me feel everything she was feeling. Personally, I don't get the hype for OUATIH, for Brad (who I think is a fantastic actor) or for Margot (who I also think is a fantastic actor). With the exception of the set design, Leo's performance (which I don't think is the best of the year, but better than the other 2), the scene with the young actress and the tension at the compound, it honestly bored the hell out of me and I dont get the hype. I rolled my eyes when it won the GG.

[Ms Blue Jay]

1 hour ago, Shannon L. said:

A better example of this, from Margot, is the scene in Bombshell where she meets Roger Ailes for the 1st time. Her silent reaction to his request made me feel everything she was feeling. Personally, I don't get the hype for OUATIH, for Brad (who I think is a fantastic actor) or for Margot (who I also think is a fantastic actor). With the exception of the set design, Leo's performance (which I don't think is the best of the year, but better than the other 2), the scene with the young actress and the tension at the compound, it honestly bored the hell out of me and I dont get the hype. I rolled my eyes when it won the GG.

You and I feel extremely similarly.  Margot and Brad have turned in great work before, but I didn't get that from this movie at all.  Leo was fantastic, but politics have "Decided" he shouldn't win this year for whatever reason.

[Shannon L.]

1 hour ago, Ms Blue Jay said:

You and I feel extremely similarly.  Margot and Brad have turned in great work before, but I didn't get that from this movie at all.  Leo was fantastic, but politics have "Decided" he shouldn't win this year for whatever reason.

I haven't heard anything about the politics involved, but I personally think that Adam Driver, Joaquin Phoenix, and Tarin Egerton were all better performances than his this year. So, I wouldn't disagree with a nomination,  but I wouldn't be happy if he won over the other three.

[Ms Blue Jay]

I definitely feel the same about Taron.  Adam, eh, again I think he's amazing but his role in MS didn't really do it for me, and I have yet to see Joker.  But I think Taron and Jamie Bell were just sensational in Rocketman.

I don't know anything about the politics either.  But I do think that Leo is constantly passed over for Oscars.

Edited January 10, 2020 by Ms Blue Jay

[Dejana]

14 hours ago, Ms Blue Jay said:

You and I feel extremely similarly.  Margot and Brad have turned in great work before, but I didn't get that from this movie at all.  Leo was fantastic, but politics have "Decided" he shouldn't win this year for whatever reason.

Leo has already won an Oscar for acting while Brad Pitt hasn't (he does have one for producing 12 Years a Slave), so Brad is getting a big push for his "supporting" role now. If DiCaprio were still Oscar-less, I think there would be more urgency about rewarding him for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, though you would probably have people saying the role wasn't "important" or showy enough compared to the competition. Best Actor is pretty competitive this year, so Pitt goes to a safer category and if DiCaprio gets in, great, but there's no urgency for him to win.

Last year, Emma Stone had already won Best Actress for La La Land, and her role in The Favourite wasn't the sort that could have gotten her a second Oscar. Even though she had more screentime than Olivia Colman, Emma was pushed in Supporting Actress (along with Rachel Weisz). If Stone hadn't won a couple of years earlier (because Viola Davis goes lead for Fences and wins there?), the positioning/campaigning for The Favourite would've played out very differently. The Oscar "butterfly effect" is an interesting game to play.

[truthaboutluv]

7 hours ago, Ms Blue Jay said:

I don't know anything about the politics either.  But I do think that Leo is constantly passed over for Oscars.

I love Leo. He's one of my favorite actors, having followed him since This Boy's Life and before all the tweens fell in love with him because of Titanic. So that said, while yes, it took him a few nominations to win, let's not pretend that he hasn't been plenty lauded and celebrated in the industry.

Leo has had like five Oscar nominations. Many actors are lucky to get one. Just ask Sam Elliot, whose nomination last year for A Star is Born was his first in a 40+ year career. For a long time, Leo simply got done in by timing and yeah probably better campaigning by others. His first nomination, they weren't going to reward a 19 year old fresh faced kid over a legendary actor like Tommy Lee Jones. Though personally I thought he deserved it and he'd have gotten my vote. 

His nomination for The Aviator, he was up against Jamie Foxx that year, for Ray. And Jamie Foxx was a juggernaut that year. To the point that he was a double nominee. Same with his nomination for Blood Diamond, where he was up against Forrest Whitaker for The Last King of Scotland. And sorry, much as I adore Leo, I thought Wolf of Wall Street was a mess. I do think he was robbed a nomination for The Departed. But all that to say, yeah Leo isn't the actor I'd choose to say gets looked over by the Academy.

[scarynikki12]

1 hour ago, truthaboutluv said:

But all that to say, yeah Leo isn't the actor I'd choose to say gets looked over by the Academy.

Agreed. Leo seems to be well liked by his peers so I wouldn't be surprised if the voters felt bad about not giving it to him even while they didn't check his name. They were no doubt collectively so relieved when The Revenant came out because they could finally give it to him. I would have given it to him for The Departed but they don't let me vote so...

I hope he gets in for Once but I don't think he'd be in the running to actually win. In a different year he'd be a strong contender and we'd be speculating on the chances of Oscar #2 but not this time.

Even if she gets nominated Margot won't be a serious contender but I will say that she blew me away in Once. Her Sharon practically glowed and, yes, her dialogue was minimal but she more than made up for it in her physical acting.

[truthaboutluv]

I don't see Margot getting the Oscar nod for Once Upon a Time and all the industry gossip points to her and her team not campaigning for that nod. They've shifted all the focus to her performance in Bombshell. And really BAFTA is the only place she got in for Once. So yeah don't see it happening. Her nomination will more than likely come for Bombshell. 

[absnow54]

Agreed, Margot has been a consistent lock in supporting this season for Bombshell with Scarlett Johansson acting as a possible foiler (for her getting a nom, not for winning.) I wonder if Scarlett will add more focus to her Jojo Rabbit campaign, since she's picked up a SAG and BAFTA nom, and Renee Zellweger is going to be really hard to beat (she's checked off pretty much all of the Academy's favorite boxes: playing real-life person, singing!, and an industry film.)

I think Scarlett would be the biggest competition to Laura Dern (which is ironic since Laura Dern's role is supporting Scarlett in Marriage Story) but she could get a similar "Well she was really good in two movies, just not the right movie..." like Kate Winslet a decade ago.

Edited January 10, 2020 by absnow54

[ShadowHunter]

Joaquin Phoenix has just been arrested in DC. I saw some worried this will hurt him at the Oscars I don't think or know if the Academy would care. 

[truthaboutluv]

23 minutes ago, ShadowHunter said:

Joaquin Phoenix has just been arrested in DC. I saw some worried this will hurt him at the Oscars I don't think or know if the Academy would care. 

He was arrested for protesting. If anything, it probably just bolstered his Oscar campaign. 

Edited January 10, 2020 by truthaboutluv

[Ohwell]

Oh yeah, that'll definitely help.

[methodwriter85]

Honestly, that's going to go over perfectly with the Baby Boomer voting crowd.

 

[Ms Blue Jay]

10 hours ago, truthaboutluv said:

I do think he was robbed a nomination for The Departed. But all that to say, yeah Leo isn't the actor I'd choose to say gets looked over by the Academy.

I think he should have won for "Titanic" and for "What's Eating Gilbert Grape".  

Alas, he wasn't even nominated for Titanic.

The movie made $2 billion dollars, and a lot of that was Leo-Mania - not saying that's why he deserved the nomination but I think it's mind-boggling that Kate and Gloria were nominated and he wasn't. 

Edited January 11, 2020 by Ms Blue Jay

[Ms Blue Jay]

9 hours ago, truthaboutluv said:

Leo has had like five Oscar nominations. Many actors are lucky to get one. Just ask Sam Elliot, whose nomination last year for A Star is Born was his first in a 40+ year career. For a long time, Leo simply got done in by timing and yeah probably better campaigning by others. His first nomination, they weren't going to reward a 19 year old fresh faced kid over a legendary actor like Tommy Lee Jones. Though personally I thought he deserved it and he'd have gotten my vote. 

Jennifer Lawrence has been nominated 4 times in her twenties and won her second time around.  The Academy doesn't care if you're brand new or not.  "Just ask" Marisa Tomei.

Tommy Lee winning over Leo and John Malkovich is still insane after all these years.

Edited January 11, 2020 by Ms Blue Jay

[truthaboutluv]

1 hour ago, Ms Blue Jay said:

I think he should have won for "Titanic" and for "What's Eating Gilbert Grape".  

Alas, he wasn't even nominated for Titanic.

The movie made $2 billion dollars, and a lot of that was Leo-Mania - not saying that's why he deserved the nomination but I think it's mind-boggling that Kate and Gloria were nominated and he wasn't. 

It was pretty much common knowledge at the time that Leo did not really campaign for Titanic. Because the rumor was that he actually kind of started resenting the film a little bit and particularly the "teen heartthrob" status it got him, because he always saw himself as a serious actor. And the whole thing felt very fluff to him.

There was also a report of things souring a bit between him and James Cameron, because Cameron felt like Leo was doing enough to promote and push the film. And that he was being a little ungrateful for the fact that he got to be a part of this billion dollar smash film. So yeah it actually wasn't that surprising when he wasn't nominated. 

As for winning, uh yeah, this is where these things are subjective again because as I said, I adore Leo but Titanic is not one of his works I'd say I felt he was deserving of a Best Actor award for. And it's not that he wasn't good in the film. The role itself was just okay. 

[Irlandesa]

2 hours ago, Ms Blue Jay said:

Jennifer Lawrence has been nominated 4 times in her twenties and won her second time around.  The Academy doesn't care if you're brand new or not.  "Just ask" Marisa Tomei.

It's different for actresses for some reason*.  There are numerous examples of younger women/women in their twenties getting nominated and even winning.  It's rarer for men.  When Timothee Chalamet got nominated a few years ago at 21 (or 22?) there was a lot of talk of how he was the youngest best actor nominee in decades. Meanwhile, you have Saoirse Ronan, Jennifer Lawrence, Emma Stone, Brie Larson...etc. all winning or being nominated for Oscars in their early to mid-twenties.

*It's likely related how Hollywood views an actor's "prime" differently based on gender.  Young women are more valued and likely are given more/better roles at that age.  While men are seen as hitting their primes in their 30s, 40s, (50s, 60s...etc.) 

 

[Ms Blue Jay]

4 hours ago, Irlandesa said:

 When Timothee Chalamet got nominated a few years ago at 21 (or 22?) there was a lot of talk of how he was the youngest best actor nominee in decades.

I think Timothee should have won too.  Either him or Denzel.

I think I'm just making the same point over and over and over again.  I think the award should be meirt based and I think all this other "stuff" is incredibly stupid.

I know that they're not, and I know that it's pie in the sky, and I know that this is unrealistic blah blah blah, but it's the way that I feel anyway.  Sometimes an awards show will actually award the people that I think deserve it, and my exact beliefs and tastes will align with who actually wins. It might have been the 2018 Oscars, or something.  Could have been the Globes or the Emmys 1 or two times.  (Definitely not the Globes this year.  I was wrong on all counts.)

It's also funny how every time I put forward an opinion, someone moves the goalposts for why that opinion is apparently ridiculous. 

"Leo should win this year". 
"Oh but it's not his year."  
"He should have won for Titanic then."
"He couldn't be nominated because he was too young, he's a man."
"Okay so why can't he win this year then?" 
"He already won for the Revenant."  or whatever.

And it goes on for another 20 rounds.  I just think that the best performance of the year should always win and I don't care about age or campaigning or gender or the director didn't like him or blah blah blah blah blah.  If Meryl Streep put out the best performance every year, she should win every year.  Etc.  That's how it is in sports or  whatever (or IDEALLY it is).  And I get it, it's subjective, and some people think Meryl Streep is a shit actor or whatever, yes I know.

I do watch most of the movies, and I do judge what I think is the "best" performance of the year.  It feels frustrating and fruitless when it's whoever campaigned the best or whatever.  Yes I know, that's politics and that's Hollywood.  But I do get a real particular kick out of the best performance (in my opinion) actually getting the Oscar that year.   I think that's what the Academy is hopefully *trying* to do by making the voting body more diverse, younger, etc. instead of some old people who don't watch the movies and vote every year for whoever the middle aged white guy or whoever the young hot female ingenue is.

Obviously this is never gonna happen, but there are idealistic people out there like me who do still have hope year after year:

Edited January 11, 2020 by Ms Blue Jay

[truthaboutluv]

6 hours ago, Ms Blue Jay said:

I think I'm just making the same point over and over and over again.  I think the award should be meirt based and I think all this other "stuff" is incredibly stupid

Yes, but that was what my original comment was about - best is subjective. Seems to me your feeling is that when someone you think is most deserving doesn't win, then it's automatically unfair and because of all the politics involved in Awards. 

But again, art is so subjective. What one person thinks is amazing, another doesn't. Because to your point about Timothee, I know plenty of people who truly thought Gary Oldman was brilliant and deserving of his award. And you mentioned Leo in Titanic and as I said, as much as I love Leo, I didn't then and still don't think Leo deserved an Oscar for that role. 

And that was why in my initial comment I made the point about Driver and Phoenix's performances. Two wildly different performances. So how can one say with complete certainty one is more deserving. My sister for example saw both films. Loved Joaquin and as she said, "Joaquin is rarely ever not amazing". But Driver's performance in Marriage Story just hit something for her and she wants him to win so badly. 

Last year was another example of how subjective this all is. A Star is Born fans felt that movie was damn near a masterpiece and deserving of all things. And it didn't happen. Personally I thought the film was just okay, with an amazing performance from Bradley Cooper.  He was brilliant in my opinion.

Now if one wants to use the politics/campaigning argument, well that film and its studio campaigned their asses off. And still all they got was one award. Bohemian Rhapsody and Green Book, while campaigning yes, were plagued with bad press and they still won big.

And speaking of A Star is Born, again, subjective because I to this day, don't even understand why Gaga was ever considered a favorite for that performance. But I know people who will go to the fire for how deserving she was. 

But the most important part of my point is this - how does one say with complete certainty that this person is absolutely deserving and was robbed and it's all unfair, if you haven't seen all the performances/films.

Because I know personally, I haven't seen The Two Popes this year. So to be honest, I can't speak on Anthony Hopkins and Jonathan Pryce's performances in the film. I'm sure they were good because these men are two amazing actors. But I don't have strong feelings about their winning or losing because I haven't seen it. It's like when quiet, unassuming Mark Rylance beat Sylvester Stallone and so many were disappointed and upset.

And yeah it would have been a nice moment to see Stallone win, especially if we're talking politics and all that, and he was amazing in Creed but I know I didn't see Bride of Spies. So honestly, I wasn't going to go around saying Stallone was robbed and was absolutely more deserving. 

Edited January 11, 2020 by truthaboutluv

[truthaboutluv]

6 hours ago, Ms Blue Jay said:

Obviously this is never gonna happen, but there are idealistic people out there like me who do still have hope year after year:

Well they have an Ensemble nomination for SAG, which honors all the major performances from the film. So there's a still chance for all the actresses and actors in the film to be awarded. 

[Ms Blue Jay]

Again, it's moving the goalposts.  If I say I think Leo should be nominated for an Oscar this year, there are all these reasons people have ready and prepared for when he doesn't = this is subjective (which, I mean, everyone knows that - the fact that judging art is subjective doesn't need to explained), this is Brad's year, not Leo's, Leo already won for the Revenant, blah blah blah.

Then if Leo actually IS nominated this year, there'll be all sorts of justifications after the fact like, 'Oh yeah, that makes sense, I think everyone wants to reward him now" blah blah.  

4 hours ago, truthaboutluv said:

But the most important part of my point is this - how does one say with complete certainty that this person is absolutely deserving and was robbed and it's all unfair, if you haven't seen all the performances/films.

It's not complete certainty.  It's a personal opinion based on watching the movies, being interested in and reading about movies and acting all one's life, paying attention to the reviews all year, reading press and audience reactions.  People form opinions based on a lot of anecdotes and evidence.  It's normal.  If it wasn't normal, there wouldn't be Oscar parties where everyone bets on who they think will win, or fills out those polls and surveys and wins contests for who gets the most answers right, etc.  Everyone has "favourites".

I think it's okay for me to have a personal opinion on who I think should win each year, and all the mansplaining, for lack of a better word, in response to that gets very tiring.  If we agree that it's subjective, then the mansplaining isn't necessary.

Edited January 11, 2020 by Ms Blue Jay

[Ms Blue Jay]

4 hours ago, truthaboutluv said:

Yes, but that was what my original comment was about - best is subjective. Seems to me your feeling is that when someone you think is most deserving doesn't win, then it's automatically unfair and because of all the politics involved in Awards. 

Nope. There are a lot of reasons why somebody might not win.  But I personally do think that when a win is political rather than merit-based, it's stupid.

For example, I've always been incredibly suspicious of Jennifer Lawrence's success,  4 Oscar nominations by the age of 26, and the definite biggest red flag is where we heard about her in the press every day leading up to her Silver Linings Playbook Oscar win and then afterward for an entire year.  And now there is actual evidence that Harvey Weinstein had favourites in the Miramax family, and pushed them forward, and threatened people in the press and Hollywood for not doing what he wants.  Not to take away from Lawrence, but I don't personally think she deserved all those nominations and it's too extreme to be taken at face value.  I think it's okay to be questioning and critical of what we're shown in the media/press and to suspect politics.  And it's also okay to believe in merit.  It's idealistic, but I think it's okay.

Edited January 11, 2020 by Ms Blue Jay

[truthaboutluv]

I may be wrong, but most seem positive Leo will be nominated this year. At least I do, since he hasn’t missed any pre-Oscar noms. Most just don’t think he will win because in their opinion, some performances were better. 

[absnow54]

I agree that campaigning is silly and takes away from the integrity of the award. The film should stand on its own without other influence. Who cares if someone was gracious at your luncheon? And yes, big industry names (Harvey Weinstein being the most obvious example) have dictated winners with very little regard as to who actually deserves it. I agree that the voting base needs to be shaken up, so the awards don’t continue to fall into the rut of picking the same formulaic films every year (period biopic, war drama, industry love letter...)

[Ms Blue Jay]

Oh yeah that's another one.  Genre movies can't be nominated.  That's why I loved when the Best Picture category got expanded and Avatar and District 9 got in there.  And when Get Out was nominated for Best Picture.  I also love Melissa McCarthy and Renee Zellweger's acting nominations for being in comedies like Bridesmaids and Bridget Jones Diary.  Because all of this goes against the tired old tradition.

(In my opinion) Jim Carrey should have been nominated for Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind.  It is actually my favourite male acting performance ever.  Instead, Kate Winslet was.  Because Jim is Jim and Kate is Kate.  Ugh!  It sucked.

I love following this Twitter account, https://twitter.com/OscarRunnerUp.

They allow everyone to vote on who SHOULD have won each award in history, and also who was snubbed from even being nominated.

It feels so validating to know there are so many other people out there like me, who thinks Alicia Silverstone should have been nominated for Clueless and Rachel McAdams for Mean Girls.  Like I said, the best performance each year - regardless of anything else.

Edited January 11, 2020 by Ms Blue Jay

[angora]

I get that, @Ms Blue Jay. It's fine that other people have different opinions than me about what performances might be the best, and I respect that even if I don't always understand it. And if everyone voted for who they thought gave the best performance, I'd be more accepting of outcomes I disagree with. But when people vote for someone because "it's his year" or because "we should've given it to her last year, but we didn't" or because "she's so gracious in interviews" or because "he's getting old, he might not have another chance," especially if they haven't even SEEN all the performances nominated in that category, that's when I grumble.

[Ms Blue Jay]

I think I have been saying that same thing all along

Edited January 13, 2020 by Ms Blue Jay

[kiddo82]

Even in a perfect world without politics and biases both internal and external you can't account for timing.  I think when someone says "2016 was Leo's year" it means more that the moon and stars finally aligned for him rather than the members of the Academy were going to vote for him hell or high water even if Laurence Olivier himself was up for MacBeth.  In 1994 even if Jones doesn't win Leo was still up against Malkovich and even Fiennes.  In 2005 it was Foxx.  In 2007 it was Whitaker etc., etc.  (I personally would have given it to him for Django instead of Waltz, who was great but was almost the same character as he was in Basterds, but I digress).  In 2016, there really wasn't, at least in my opinion, a strong contender who could pull a significant amount of votes from him (full disclosure, I've never seen Trumbo) thus making it "his year."  However, what happens if The Theory of Everything, The Revenant, Manchester by the Sea, Darkest Hour, and Bohemian Rhapsody all come out the same year?  Only one of those five performances can win.  Does sentiment play a role in separating two or three maybe equally great performances?  Of course it does.  We're only human after all.  But sometimes luck of the draw is as much of a factor than anything else. 

Amy Adams seems to be the victim of timing as much as anyone else recently losing out to Regina King, Cate Blanchette, Anne Hathaway, and Melissa Leo over the last ten years.  I predict some time in the not too distant future it will be "her year." 

Topic?  1917 was amazing and would be my pick for Best Picture if I had a vote.

Edited January 12, 2020 by kiddo82

[Dejana]

Oscar nominations are announced tomorrow! I miss when it was a simple press conference where they read the names/movies instead of those fancy awkward graphic presentations. Either make a whole primetime special out of it, or just stick to the basics. They could even bring back Mercedes Ruehl (she was in Hustlers)!

 

 

For this year, I would love to see George MacKay in Best Actor, 1917 is major contender and he's the clear lead who gets a lot to do in terms of acting. I don't have high hopes, the category is just so tough this time around. Last year, Marina de Tavira showed up in Best Supporting Actress without factoring into the precursors. It was kind of reassuring to get proof the voters weren't just checking the same names that showed up everywhere else.

Edited January 12, 2020 by Dejana

[truthaboutluv]

Locking in my predictions a few hours before the announcement. Taking into account BAFTA noms and how the Globes went (probably should wait to see what happens in a few hours at the Critics Choice but whatever), I'm going with these.

Best Picture (I think the Academy will continue to stick to 8 nominees instead of 10)

The Irishman

Marriage Story

Jojo Rabbit

Parasite

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

1917

Joker

Bombshell

 

Best Actor 

Joaquin Phoenix – Joker

Adam Driver – Marriage Story

Leonardo Dicaprio – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Taron Egerton - Rocketman 

Robert De Niro – The Irishman (I know this seems insane considering how this season has gone so far. And admittedly I may be deluded but I can't shake the gut feeling that the Academy is not going to ignore a legend like De Niro, especially if the film gets a bunch of nods). 

 

Best Actress

Renee Zellweger – Judy

Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story

Charlize Theron – Bombshell

Lupita Nyong’o – Us/Saoirse Ronan - Little Women (still torn on this one but leaning a bit more towards Saoirse)

Awkwafina – The Farewell

 

Best Director

Bong Joon Ho – Parasite

Martin Scorsese – The Irishman

Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Sam Mendes – 1917

Todd Phillips – Joker

 

Best Supporting Actor 

Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Joe Pesci – The Irishman

Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Al Pacino – The Irishman

Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes

 

Best Supporting Actress

Laura Dern – Marriage Story

Jennifer Lopez – Hustlers

Margot Robbie – Bombshell

Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit

Kathy Bates – Richard Jewell/Florence Pugh - Little Women (leaning towards Pugh, who seems to be picking up some major late season steam)

Outside shots but would not surprise me, are Zhao Shuzhen for The Farewell in Supporting Actress and Song Kang Ho in Parasite for Supporting Actor.

Edited January 12, 2020 by truthaboutluv

[scarynikki12]

15 minutes ago, truthaboutluv said:

Best Actress

Renee Zellweger – Judy

Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story

Charlize Theron – Bombshell

Lupita Nyong’o – Us/Saoirse Ronan - Little Women (still torn on this one but leaning a bit more towards Saoirse)

Awkwafina – The Farewell

I'm hoping we get Lupita and Saoirse and Charlize is left off the list. I love Charlize but not this year.

[Ms Blue Jay]

For others besides me who have seen the movie, does Tom Hanks being Supporting Actor feel like category fraud?  I guess because his performance is much showier one in the film, it feels very awkward to me.  It's pretty obvious Matthew Rhys purposefully took a backseat to Tom's acting in the film, I thought.  

Parasite definitely reads to me as a genre film (Wikipedia says black comedy psychological thriller) so it's cool that it's getting so much traction.

Edited January 13, 2020 by Ms Blue Jay

[truthaboutluv]

Critics Choice just wrapped and it's certainly looking like The Irishman and Marriage Story are  losing steam. And Once Upon a Time in Hollywood is looking like this year's Green Book. Tarantino will likely not win Director but the film is a strong contender for Screenplay and Picture.

And of course Brad is looking more and more like the lock for Supporting Actor. Director is also now looking like a fight between Sam Mendes and Bong Joon Ho, where a few weeks ago, many thought it was between Scorsese and Bong Joon Ho.

Still the critics aren't members of The Academy and don't vote, so I'll still wait to see how things shape at SAG this coming Sunday and the various Guilds. If Once Upon a Time wins PGA, I think it'd be hard to bet against it, as PGA is like 90 percent on the money with their pick ultimately winning Best Picture. And DGA winner will also be pretty telling to how things are leaning. 

[CherryMalotte]

I'm thinking Parasite is going to pull off quite a few nominations, more so than The Irishman.  I'm hoping to see Dolemite in at least the costuming catagory.  I sure would like a couple of surprises tomorrow, but where that would fall is anybody's guess.  Usually we get at least one left field nomination, I only wish it was Alfre Woodard in Clemency. 

My Oscar year of hurt was 2014 with no Michael B Jordan nomination for Fruitvale Station.

[Irlandesa]

3 hours ago, Ms Blue Jay said:

Parasite definitely reads to me as a genre film (Wikipedia says black comedy psychological thriller) so it's cool that it's getting so much traction.

I just saw it tonight. I'd say it's similarish to Get Out.  It is funny and a psychological thriller.  It also has some social commentary  which is what I think is helping it. I'd also say the fact that it's subtitled gives it an art house mystique that plays well with voters but the fact that it's in a foreign language is also a drawback.

 

[starri]

7 hours ago, CherryMalotte said:

My Oscar year of hurt was 2014 with no Michael B Jordan nomination for Fruitvale Station.

I'll add Octavia Spencer for same.

[JessePinkman]

ScarJo is obviously going to get a (undeserved) nomination for Marriage Story, so why couldn't they put J. Lo in her supporting actress slot instead? Sad.

The best part of these noms is definitely John Cho and Issa Rae.

The worst part is definitely all the clapping after every nom is read.

Edited January 13, 2020 by JessePinkman

[truthaboutluv]

Not many surprises for me - the biggest snubs that most will be talking about of course is no J-Lo for Supporting and no Frozen 2 for Animated Film. Hell I think the latter is a bigger shock that J-Lo's snub. 

I'm bummed for J-Lo, since this might have been her best chance for awhile but like I said, not too surprised. Only because I've had Kathy Bates on my list for months when everyone thought she was a long shot. And there has been a strong and massive late season push for Pugh. 

Also not surprised about Todd Phillips getting into Director, when many were saying it would never happen. The signs were all there in my opinion and more importantly, people forgot that while reviews in the U.S. were mixed for the film, the international critics loved it. Joker won the Golden Lion at Cannes for crying out loud. And with a heavy international membership in the Directors' branch, I knew Philips was getting in. 

[absnow54]

Bummer that Taron Egerton missed the best actor nom, but I'm delighted that Antonio Banderas made the cut. Based on nominations in major categories, I'd say that Once Upon a Time in Hollywood has the edge over Parasite for Best Picture, but I think the guild awards will tighten up the race. 1917 still feels like a dark horse, even though it's checking a lot of boxes, and has picked up some major awards. I guess now that it's hit wide release it may actually start building momentum.

It's also a shame for J.Lo. It would have been nice to see an original film like Hustlers be recognized by the Academy. I think Florence Pugh deserved her nom, for breathing life into one of the least likeable characters in literature (Jo and Laurie 4 eva!) and even though Scarlett has picked up supporting nominations for everything but the Globes, her nomination here feels tacked on.

Adding link to Oscar nominees...

Edited January 13, 2020 by absnow54

[AimingforYoko]

The two real "huh?"s for me are Scarlett's nom in Supporting for Jojo Rabbit and Jojo for Best Picture. 

[truthaboutluv]

3 minutes ago, AimingforYoko said:

The two real "huh?"s for me are Scarlett's nom in Supporting for Jojo Rabbit and Jojo for Best Picture. 

Based on the precursors, these were actually not a surprise. Scarlett only missed out on the Globes for Supporting. She got a nod for SAG, BAFTA and the Critics Choice. And the film has shown up everywhere, except for the BAFTA Awards. 

[absnow54]

3 minutes ago, AimingforYoko said:

The two real "huh?"s for me are Scarlett's nom in Supporting for Jojo Rabbit and Jojo for Best Picture. 

To be fair, the most consistent nominations for best supporting actress this season have been Laura Dern, Margot Robbie, Jennifer Lopez, and Scarlett Johansson. I think it's easy to overlook her nomination though, since she's mostly been campaigning for Best Actress. 

[Ms Blue Jay]

Notable (to me) no Lupita, Taron, Eddie, Adam, J.Lo.  

Somebody on Twitter pointed out the only actor of colour nominated played a slave.

Aside from all the Parasite recognition, this is pretty disastrous for me.  Of course no female director yet again.  

Two nominations for Scarlett, LOL.  

I finally watched "Portrait of a Lady on Fire", both French and female directed.  I wonder how it stacks up next to "Les Miserables" which France submitted to the Oscars instead.  I thought Noémie Merlant in Portrait was sensational.

Edited January 13, 2020 by Ms Blue Jay

[Shannon L.]

I saw the last few nominations live, but haven't seen the whole list yet.  Mini rant now, and more thoughts later:

Last year, I loved BoRhap, but raised an eyebrow at how many nominations it was getting because I didn't think it was that good (although, I laughed when it won more than just best actor because I didn't think it was that bad, either, like some people did).  The only award nominations I cheered and rooted for were for Rami Malik.  I thought Rocketman was a better movie, so I'm really disappointed that Taron wasn't nominated for Best Actor, even though I knew he wouldn't win.  I'm also ticked that with 10 open slots, they couldn't have thrown either Rocketman or Knives Out in there. 

I'm sure I'll be back with more after I've read the whole list.