S38: Preview & Speculation Thread

[LadyChatts]

I saw this brought up at Sucks, but it's something to think about regarding Ron's now-fake advantage.  One of the options on there was to steal a reward-what if Rick loses the family visit challenge, then tries to steal it from another player-only to piss off that person and have Ron get found out?  In addition, another poster made the comment that the advantage mentions tribes on there.  Since we're no longer in the two tribe phase, Rick may pick up on that, and realize he was duped.  Maybe he purposely manipulates the situation to his advantage, by making the girls curious to search through his bag (or he loses immunity, so they are looking to see if he has an idol).  They find the advantage, believe it's real, and vote with Rick to get rid of someone else.  

[KimberStormer]

It's sort of great that Ron was apparently so impressed by Aurora's giving him her advantage that he's emulating her?  Considering he hates her.  Maybe Ron and Aurora are the new David and Kelley, odd-couple frenemy duo.

[ProfCrash]

8 hours ago, KimberStormer said:

It's sort of great that Ron was apparently so impressed by Aurora's giving him her advantage that he's emulating her?  Considering he hates her.  Maybe Ron and Aurora are the new David and Kelley, odd-couple frenemy duo.

Ron did hold on to the advantage so that he could use it to trick someone. I thought I remember him mentioning that at the merge, but I could be remembering. 

[kikaha]

Here's a bizarre outcome that would perfectly fit this idiotic season: Rick gets booted after the next TC or so... returns to EoE... wins the second (and last) EoE challenge... goes back in the game and ends up winning the title of Sole Survivor. 

[LadyChatts]

1 hour ago, ProfCrash said:

Ron did hold on to the advantage so that he could use it to trick someone. I thought I remember him mentioning that at the merge, but I could be remembering. 

I posted about a secret scene the shower Ron talking about using his advantage to trick someone (either into working with him or thinking it was real).  Because it was a secret scene, I figured it wasn’t something that was going to happen.

Given Ron and Wardog believing they are playing the best game, and the edits they have gotten that have contradicted that, I have to think this will blow up spectacularly in Ron’s face.  Unless that preview is totally misleading, he tells Rick it’s fake, and they plot to make people think it’s real.

[LadyChatts]

[TVFan1]

I guess Rick somehow remains in the game. I don't think they are going to show a preview of someone in danger of going home and it actually happens.

[LanceM]

8 hours ago, LadyChatts said:

I posted about a secret scene the shower Ron talking about using his advantage to trick someone (either into working with him or thinking it was real).  Because it was a secret scene, I figured it wasn’t something that was going to happen.

Given Ron and Wardog believing they are playing the best game, and the edits they have gotten that have contradicted that, I have to think this will blow up spectacularly in Ron’s face.  Unless that preview is totally misleading, he tells Rick it’s fake, and they plot to make people think it’s real.

As much as I want Rick gone I will laugh my ass off if this backfires and they vote out Ron because they fear Rick might have an idol or something

[peachmangosteen]

On 4/26/2019 at 5:27 PM, LadyChatts said:

Wow, they're laying it on think with Rick there. I hope the episode isn't as deifying of him as the promo is. If it is though then yea, Rick's winning. Ugh.

[Nashville]

On 4/28/2019 at 8:59 AM, peachmangosteen said:

Wow, they're laying it on think with Rick there. I hope the episode isn't as deifying of him as the promo is. If it is though then yea, Rick's winning. Ugh.

No kidding - is this Survivor, or the latest episode of “Rick and Friends”?  😛

[Special K]

On 4/26/2019 at 10:38 AM, kikaha said:

Here's a bizarre outcome that would perfectly fit this idiotic season: Rick gets booted after the next TC or so... returns to EoE... wins the second (and last) EoE challenge... goes back in the game and ends up winning the title of Sole Survivor. 

Yes I posted last week I think that I think this is exactly what will happen.

[LadyChatts]

TC aftermath.  Ron's strategy is to make everyone think he's working with them, because that means they never vote you out.  Given what we've seen by Ron being blindsided, flip flopping, and people outright saying they don't trust him, I think this is another attempt by TPTB to make fun of Ron's game play.  In addition, trying to make it seem like you're working with everyone usually catches up to you at some point.  And not in a good way.

So it would appear he gives Rick the expired advantage to gain his trust back.  We'll see how that works out for him when Rick realizes it's no good.

Edited May 1, 2019 by LadyChatts

[peachmangosteen]

Yea, I'm thinking Rob is gonna get booted in this ep. I bet there's tons of pre-IC talk about how Rick has to go, then Rick wins the IC (and probably gets a lot of airtime about how he's an underdog and he will save himself yada yada yada), and Ron ends up booted by all the 'people who aren't playing.' 

[ProfCrash]

I would be very happy to see Ron go. He is that self satisfied smug look that just annoys me.

[Bryce Lynch]

55 minutes ago, ProfCrash said:

I would be very happy to see Ron go. He is that self satisfied smug look that just annoys me.

Ron seems to be walking the fine line between being a Tony/Sarah type winner and a guy who gets caught and booted before FTC or a goat at TC. 

He seems to be playing a low key obnoxiously disloyal game, that could also be interpreted as a strong strategic game, depending upon how the jury feels about him and how bitter they are.  

That got me thinking.  Will the jury be extra bitter after spending as much as 36 days on EOE, as opposed to living in luxury at Ponderosa?  

[phlebas]

20 minutes ago, Bryce Lynch said:

That got me thinking.  Will the jury be extra bitter after spending as much as 36 days on EOE, as opposed to living in luxury at Ponderosa?  

I am really curious to see what mood the jury is in.  Unless anyone else walks out, it'll be a jury of 13 tired, dirty, starved jurors grilling some of the people who Wronged Them.

Production is going to have a sniper on Reem.

[LadyChatts]

I was so disappointed that Reem gave Ron a warmer welcome than everyone else (probably helps they were never on a tribe together).  She's supposed to be bitter at everyone.  That's the highlight of her being there!

Looks like Rick's gonna get something from EOE next week to save himself *eye roll*  I still think he's an arrogant little weenie.  I'm worried that Aurora's time is finally up next week.

Surprised we didn't see any of Julie in the preview.  Perhaps she was melting down off in the jungle, first for losing Ron, and then for getting called out by Ron?  I have to give her credit that she didn't lose it at TC.

[jay741982]

Ugh Producer Pet Rick Devins. Such BS Jury is helping someone who was eliminated 

[TVFan1]

It appears Rick (who I still can't stand) is running through the jungle. I guess it's another advantage/idol which I'm sure he'll find. I'm so tired of the Rick Devins Show.

[jay741982]

32 minutes ago, TVFan1 said:

It appears Rick (who I still can't stand) is running through the jungle. I guess it's another advantage/idol which I'm sure he'll find. I'm so tired of the Rick Devins Show.

I'm hoping his arrogance is leading to his downfall

[LadyChatts]

Yeah, this is getting into Ben territory at this point when it comes to Rick.  He's a producer pet whose completely at the bottom, so let's just have him magically start finding idols and getting every advantage sent to him from EOE.  Those jurors are going to lap this up even more after tonight.

I'm rooting for Aurora at this point.  Finally someone who isn't afraid to just put it out there and not hold back.  Everyone else was awkwardly silent when Rick came back and discovered the bag search.  Except Aurora, whose all 'yep, I did it, it's allowed but I still love you!'  I guess Victoria and Gavin would round out the final 3, but I wouldn't completely object to Lauren being there.

Edited May 2, 2019 by LadyChatts

[TVFan1]

9 minutes ago, LadyChatts said:

Yeah, this is getting into Ben territory at this point when it comes to Rick.  He's a producer pet whose completely at the bottom, so let's just have him magically start finding idols and getting every advantage sent to him from EOE.  Those jurors are going to lap this up even more after tonight.

I'm rooting for Aurora at this point.  Finally someone who isn't afraid to just put it out there and not hold back.  Everyone else was awkwardly silent when Rick came back and discovered the bag search.  Except Aurora, whose all 'yep, I did it, it's allowed but I still love you!'  I guess Victoria and Gavin would round out the final 3, but I wouldn't completely object to Lauren being there.

I can totally see Rick finding idol after idol or advantage after advantage and make the final 3 and of course, win. It's disgusting.

[phlebas]

The best thing for the other players might be for Rick to get voted out and immediately come back at the end of EoE. He will have had little time to bond with the jurors more than he already has from his first shift out there.  

If it's someone like Chris or Aubry or Joe instead, the other players' only hope is to get that person back out ASAP. You don't want to be sitting at FTC next to someone who's made friends with the entire jury.

[peachmangosteen]

There is literally no chance in hell Rick isn't winning. He's getting the Ben edit.

I have spent nearly all season irrationally hating Victoria and I still do tbh, but I pray she can beat Rick in the end. I'd be fine with Lauren, Gavin, or Aurora pulling it off too, but I just feel they have far less of a chance. Victoria has been very low-key and quiet, but she does have things she can actually talk up. I fear she's not gonna be able to do it though. She's just low-key while Rick is way ott and the jury seems to love that. I'm sure in the end though the F3 will be like Rick/Julie/Aurora and Rick will get every vote. Ugh this season. End it!

[Bryce Lynch]

1 hour ago, peachmangosteen said:

There is literally no chance in hell Rick isn't winning. He's getting the Ben edit.

I have spent nearly all season irrationally hating Victoria and I still do tbh, but I pray she can beat Rick in the end. I'd be fine with Lauren, Gavin, or Aurora pulling it off too, but I just feel they have far less of a chance. Victoria has been very low-key and quiet, but she does have things she can actually talk up. I fear she's not gonna be able to do it though. She's just low-key while Rick is way ott and the jury seems to love that. I'm sure in the end though the F3 will be like Rick/Julie/Aurora and Rick will get every vote. Ugh this season. End it!

I don't buy the "winner's edit" thing.  IMO, he is getting the "frequently on the chopping block, finding a playing advantages, challenge winning, scrambling" edit.  

He has been involved in a lot of exciting game play, plus he has a big personality, so he has gotten a lot of screen time.  I'm not saying he definitely won't  win.  IMO, he is a contender.  But, his edit only indicates that he's been involved in a lot of drama.   Christian had a somewhat similar edit last season.

[KimberStormer]

3 hours ago, Bryce Lynch said:

He has been involved in a lot of exciting game play

Name one

[jay741982]

10 hours ago, phlebas said:

The best thing for the other players might be for Rick to get voted out and immediately come back at the end of EoE. He will have had little time to bond with the jurors more than he already has from his first shift out there.  

If it's someone like Chris or Aubry or Joe instead, the other players' only hope is to get that person back out ASAP. You don't want to be sitting at FTC next to someone who's made friends with the entire jury.

They're already mind bogglingly rooting for him 

[phlebas]

23 hours ago, jay741982 said:

They're already mind bogglingly rooting for him 

Yeah, I don't think it's a great chance, but it might be the best one.

[LadyChatts]

The "Rick has gone crazy" reminds me of how Mike Holloway (also a man at the bottom) was described as such by the cast when they were trying to vote him off.

[peachmangosteen]

Ugh, another "all Rick, all the time" promo. Please let him finally be booted and then not return again so I can hear from someone, anyone else in the finale!

I figured the EoE person would be returning in this ep, but since the promos haven't alluded to it I guess they're waiting until F5 to do it. Wow. So the finale will have a challenge for the EoE return, 2 ICs, a fire-making challenge, 3 TCs, and the FTC. So stupid.

[jay741982]

Well according to Probst, The BigWigs arent really fans of the Live Reunion hence it being like 30 minutes lately instead of a hour. Sucks cause I think 6 castaways in the beginning of the finale sucks 

[Nashville]

1 hour ago, jay741982 said:

Well according to Probst, The BigWigs arent really fans of the Live Reunion hence it being like 30 minutes lately instead of a hour. Sucks cause I think 6 castaways in the beginning of the finale sucks 

Thank god; the quicker TPTB count this season as a failed experiment and move on from this defecation celebration, the better.

[LadyChatts]

Don't forget we have to waste time promoting some CBS summer show and potentially have Sia crash the stage to give someone money.  And have the "random" kid in the audience cast their vote for who they think will win (which, shockingly, those kids are always accurate!)  I think that's why Probst has taken to talking to some of the contestants during the finale breaks because he knows he won't have time at the reunion.  And he probably likes hearing himself talk, so win for him.

[TVFan1]

I can just see Rick finding, or in his case given an immunity idol AND winning the next immunity challenge. 

[LadyChatts]

Tonight was the first time I thought Victoria had a good shot to win, and I can see the social game she's playing, especially after reading David's comment about it.

Julie has absolutely zero chance.  Lauren and Gavin may get a vote or two, but I'd say their chances are better than her.  I do wonder, with someone coming back from EOE next week, if Kelley blabbing about Lauren's hidden idol ends up backfiring on her in some way.  

I'm Team Reem all the way.  I think Rick has an advantage having been on EOE and winning his way back in, and it seems like the group out there has bonded.  I kind of want someone from EOE to win, just to hear Probst justify the twist and having everyone out there bonding.   

Edited May 9, 2019 by LadyChatts

[TVFan1]

I'm really rooting for Lauren to win. Whoever gets out Rick, if that even happens will end up with a major game move on their resume. I hope he leaves next week.

[LanceM]

Either Victoria or Lauren winning will be fine with me.  Those two in my opinion have played the best games out of anyone left.  Rick has been the flashiest no doubt about that but I don't think his actual game has been that great.

[kikaha]

Whoever comes back from EoE will likely be great at challenges.  The players in the game now don't look much like challenge beasts to me.  Two wins for the returnee, at 6 and 5 (against players arguably worse at challenges) and he/she are probably odds on to make FTC.  There they argue their case in front of a jury they've bonded with, in some cases for over a month. 

Hope it doesn't take place, but I could easily see the next returnee winning the season. 

[peachmangosteen]

4 minutes ago, kikaha said:

Hope it doesn't take place, but I could easily see the next returnee winning the season. 

I could see it too because of the reasons you mentioned, but then the editing makes even less sense. We barely saw any of the EoE people in the back-half of the season.

[SVNBob]

7 hours ago, peachmangosteen said:

We barely saw any of the EoE people in the back-half of the season.

We pretty much only saw EoE 3 times post-merge, not counting Reem's "warm welcomes" to the new occupants shown after the previews and the voting recap.  Let's look at them in reverse order.

The letter scene from the penultimate episode may be a clue.  Some are saying Chris will be the returnee based on the shot of him wading out to a rock to read his letter.  While possible, I think that's more symbolic of EoE itself (being off on a landmass on your own, separate from the group...), and a sign he's not going to return.  But another resident was also highlighted in that scene.  We'll come back to this.

Prior to that, we saw David finding the advantage he sent to Rick for that one IC.  That led to the first of Rick's IC wins.  So we were shown something on EoE that had an effect on the main game.

Which gets us back to the other main scene on EoE post-merge.  Aubry finding the practice equipment for the challenge and the extra vote. 

Like the scene with David later, the extra vote did have a lasting effect on the game.  Aubry sent it to Aurora, and she used it as leverage with Ron, then gave it to Gavin who used it to lever Ron out.   And this could be the extent of the import of the scene.  But if that were the case, we probably would only have seen Aubry find the vote and not the practice equipment.  I know they were right next to each other, so that would have been hard.  However, they took the time to show us Aubry starting to practice right away.  And recall they didn't show Chris using his practice items for the first challenge at all.

Since they seem to only be showing EoE moments that really affect the main game, I'm of the opinion that Aubry is the most likely to win the challenge and return.  She was the other person highlighted in the letter scene that I noted other than Chris (or Reem.  But she's the EoE Narrator, so that's why she got that spotlight.)  And lest we forget, Aubry's actually pretty good at challenges.  She may not have won an IC until the one time in GC, but she was a lot stronger than she appeared throughout Kaoh Rong.  The advantage of practice may be all she needs to win.

[peachmangosteen]

I think Aubry is a strong possibility to be the EoE returnee. She was pretty close in the first challenge and yea, them showing her practicing when they didn't show Chris is interesting.

And really, of all the EoE people, Aubry is the one I could most see winning the game. She was getting mucho airtime there for awhile and even when they dropped the EoE airtime significantly she still got some of the little time they gave it.

I still think if she was the winner she would have gotten more airtime in the back-half though. Or at least that Rick would have gotten less. If Rick doesn't win then the winner is probably Victoria or maybe Lauren since, as @SVNBob said elsewhere, they tend to under-edit UTR, female winners and give their most loved male of that season OTT airtime.

[Eolivet]

I can't see Aubry winning, because I'd like to think they would never have made a winner look that ridiculous in the beginning. I mean, there's "boneheaded game move" and there's "make someone look like an idiot." And her tears have seemed more desperate and pathetic than inspiring (and this coming from someone who adored Aubry in Kaoh Rong). But this season makes me wonder ... why.

I will be stunned if Victoria wins, as well, because the number 1 requirement for a Survivor winner is you have to be likable, and she is ... not. Michele, Mike Holloway, Ben -- even Natalie White had at least "game likability" to them -- they were underdogs. Victoria has been in the catbird seat the entire time. She's not even "boring" Sarah on Game Changers who at least received credit for her moves (I still remember her "it worked" when Sierra gave her the advantage). Victoria's received no credit for the Kama moves -- instead, the jury has seen it to go Rick, and to a lesser extent, Lauren.

I also haven't seen any cracks in Rick's armor, like we sort of saw with Dom -- where there were scenes of him being domineering compared to Wendell being kind. Granted, a lot of those were in the finale, so I'll be watching that edit closely. But unless Rick turns into Brad Culpepper, it's between him, Edge of Extinction winner tbd and Lauren for my top three winner picks, storyline-wise.

[KimberStormer]

1 hour ago, Eolivet said:

I will be stunned if Victoria wins, as well, because the number 1 requirement for a Survivor winner is you have to be likable, and she is ... not.

I mean...says you?  Why not?  I think she's great and always have.

[Eolivet]

I couldn't even give you three adjectives to describe Victoria's gameplay or her personality, independent of the ex-Kamas. That's on the editing, not on her, but an episode away from the finale, that's sort of unforgivable storytelling.

I know nothing about the game through Victoria's eyes. Who is her ride-or-die-ally? What is her end game, other than "the final four?" (which she blew up last vote). Who does she think she can beat? Does she really trust Gavin, or is she stringing him along? Does she really trust Lauren, or is she stringing Lauren along? Likability on Survivor, to me, is getting to know a character, and how that character stands out from the rest as a winner. I could not tell you one way Victoria stands out, personality-wise, from the people she's voting with every week. Something uniquely Victoria -- be it her challenge prowess or her feisty personality or a unique voting strategy or yes, her backstory.

Sarah said she wanted to play like a criminal, not like a cop. Wendell said he changed his whole life, and this was a fresh start for him. Nick said he wanted to make as many alliances as possible. I've spent 35 days with Victoria onscreen, and I couldn't tell you how she wants me to see her. To me, that's not a winner.

Again, the finale editing has been wonky in these past few years. But this is beyond under-the-radar, to me. Victoria's so loosely drawn, she's not even boring. She's just ... in the majority. I can't name one winner like that, but who knows?

[LanceM]

11 minutes ago, Eolivet said:

I couldn't even give you three adjectives to describe Victoria's gameplay or her personality, independent of the ex-Kamas. That's on the editing, not on her, but an episode away from the finale, that's sort of unforgivable storytelling.

I know nothing about the game through Victoria's eyes. Who is her ride-or-die-ally?

She has no ride or die she made that clear back in the Wendy's boot episode where she said she will back stab anyone as long as it gets her further in the game.  That seems to be her strategy.  I'd say at this point her closest ally is Gavin who other than the Kelley vote has voted the same as her the whole game.

[KimberStormer]

OK, I agree with that editing critique for sure, but I guess I don't equate that to "likeability"?

[peachmangosteen]

3 hours ago, Eolivet said:

Something uniquely Victoria -- be it her challenge prowess or her feisty personality or a unique voting strategy or yes, her backstory.

I feel like they've been showing her as a 'feisty personality.' In the few moments she has had, she's been kinda snarky. The 'no one should ever trust me' or whatever, with a sly smile. The 'I'm playing too, Jeff.' I feel like she could have easily been a villain-y type character or maybe a love-to-hate or just a love depending on what types of players one likes, but instead they just made her invisible. Which is why I can't really see her winning.

[LadyChatts]

23 hours ago, peachmangosteen said:

I could see it too because of the reasons you mentioned, but then the editing makes even less sense. We barely saw any of the EoE people in the back-half of the season.

If an EOE person wins, I’m thinking it would be a returning player.  While it’s weird we’ve barely gotten anything the second half of the season out there, it would make sense if it was Joe/Kelley/David/Aubry.  We already know them.

[MissEwa]

I don't see Victoria winning either but I don't think she's unlikeable, or even getting an "unlikeable" edit, a la Angelina last season. Early on she was getting a bit of a "bad at Survivor" edit, with the not knowing how to find idols and talking about voting Joe out while he was right there stuff, but since then I've found her edit neutral-positive-ish. There just isn't enough of it, which is a shame because she's the only person whose win would somewhat redeem the season for me. 

I could see Aubrey returning, but probably not winning. Same for Chris, maybe David at a stretch. I feel like it's almost certainly not Joe or Kelly because they would be getting much bigger edits if they were coming back. 

[peachmangosteen]

New preview, touting the 'most unpredictable Survivor finale ever.'