S20: Heroes vs Villains

[Whimsy]

Here is your Survivor S20 topic.

[azshadowwalker]

We've been discussing the advantages of having never been seen by your competitors in another thread. We were specifically talking about whether Russell Hantz benefited from no one having the opportunity to see him play. Since it was getting OT, I'll bring it here. 

I don't think it was a chain reaction based upon not seeing Russell. JT had already said he didn't want to play the game the same way again. I think allying with a villain was part of that. I mean, as we've all mentioned, it was obvious that there was something shady about Hantz or he wouldn't be a villain. JT didn't want to be a "nice guy" anymore, and said as much. I don't think JT misjudged Russell as much as JT outsmarted himself. And Rupert was just dumb. I'm one of the people who loves Rupert, but why would he not trust Sandra--who always had his back, with whom he's already played and had an alliance in a previous season? I don't think that had anything to do with not seeing Russell before. I think it had to do with Rupert being a fool and just making a dumb choice. He believed in JT, and JT was leading him in the wrong direction due to his own desire to play differently.

[ForeverAlone]

Yeah, JT wanted to play differently the second time, but I have to think that the only reason he slipped Russell his idol is because he thought Russell was threatened, because Rupert made such a big deal about a women's alliance taking control of the Villain tribe. I don't think JT trusted Parvati (most of the players didn't), and they all seemed in fear of the women banding together again.  If JT hadn't thought that Russell was about to be voted out, but rather that he was basically running things over on the Villain tribe, I can't see why JT would have given him his idol. 

[simplyme]

I kind of thought JT was overly concerned about a women's alliance partially because he's just that kind of guy.  Also, if Rupert is on your side, you should triple-think your reasoning because Rupert is delusional about how strategic he is.  I remember watching that season and marveling at the stupidity.  (I think both Candice and Cirie expressed doubt about the women's alliance, but what would stupid women know?)

It's possible that they wouldn't have assumed this had they seen Russell play before, but honestly I think it's quite possible they would have decided that any guy who was the last man standing was a victim of a women's alliance because that's a specific Survivor paranoia.  Granted, had they seen Russell play before and realized what a jerk he was, they might not have cared... but I don't know (based on what I remember) that we can say not seeing Russell's game previously got him to FTC.

[ForeverAlone]

If they had seen Samoa, hopefully they would have remembered Russell's quote about his "dumb ass girls brigade" and realized that he was not going to be a "victim" of a women's alliance. The villains who realized what a jerk Russell was, seemed to be voted out one by one after Tyson (except of course for Sandra). The heroes realized too late what type of player Russell really was, and they never were able to band together to mount an effective counterattack, and after a couple fateful votes, they simply did not have the numbers to remove Russell. Maybe it is purely fan fiction, but I would like to think that if the players had seen Russell's game before, they would not have let him get as far into the game as he was. Sure, he is guaranteed to lose, but having to live with him for 39 days is one of my Survivor nightmares. 

Edited May 28, 2016 by ForeverAlone

[KimberStormer]

(hi gang I'm back from vacation)

This is a very interesting question in regards to Russell specifically.  We have a very convenient contrast in Malcolm, who was brought back for Caramoan right after Philippines and was a similar unknown quantity to the "Favorites" (I use the term with enormous disdain).  Nobody knew Malcolm and everyone had pre-game alliances so they were willing to give him a try, particularly since he was good at, or was percieved to be good at, challenges.  Phillip liked him and invited him into Spies R Us or whatever it was called.  But nevertheless he was never going to be a part of the Cochran/Dawn inner circle which really ran things, or even the Andrea-with-Phillip-as-goat splinter group which vied with them for power.  He was doomed to be one of those 7th-to-5th types on the outskirts of power unless he made a big move, as he attempted with Corrine, to grab some Fans and upset the applecart (foiled by Dawn, he was doomed and simply scrambled as long as he could with idols to stay in the game).  Basically I think this is the predictable template for the unknown player on a returnee season: a disadvantage, because there's no way to be leader of your tribe thanks to pre-game alliances.

And that was more or less Russell's position, except for him, that situation is actually probably an advantage.  Because nobody would ever want to play with Russell, having seen him.  He got the benefit of the doubt enough to stay instead of Randy, in other words, whereas he would be first out of the Villains if they'd seen him.  Not just because he's an asshole and a force of chaos and does shit like steal yr socks, but (as I think Rob C said somewhere) returning players tend to not like people with big edits.

I also think JT wouldn't have attempted his big move. Mostly because Russell is a dick, but also because he obviously is not the type to be grateful and do what JT asks him to do.  I don't know how much we can call that smart or logical.  The thing is their big mistake was assuming the Women's Alliance, which as @simplyme says is a specific Survivor paranoia--I would call it a specific HvV paranoia, actually, because if you watch pre-game interviews and stuff, Micronesia was everybody's overriding obsession, and Parvati the nightmare beast terrifying seemingly every dude in the game because they were so freaked about being WOMENED out of the game.  They were primed to see it, though I do think nothing contradicted it in what they saw and knew, the Villains' boot order, whether or not you know Russell likes to play with "dumbass girls" (which applies to nobody on the Villains team anyway).  I can easily put together the thinking--Randy as easy first boot which the men go along with without realizing it puts them at a numbers disadvantage, then Tyson and Rob, the strongest men over there, then Coach who has a connection to JT...finally Russell is left, the weak outsider, with no connections anywhere.  Like, if you switch Russell with Randy, I'm 95% sure JT would have done the idol idea, and I'm 100% sure he would if it was Coach; but he would probably have had a different interpretation of the dynamic if Rob was the last man standing, you know what I mean?

But anyway the "Russell had a HUGE ADVANTAGE!  Nobody knew who he was!" thing mostly comes across as just silly to me, particularly when you get deeper into conspiracy-land with the rumor/theory that "ONLY PARVATI KNEW, because HER FRIEND AT CASTING (or, for the more misogynist wing of the Parv hatedom, the cameraman she blew, or whatever it was) TOLD HER ABOUT RUSSELL!  CHEATING!"  Like, told her what?  Russell doesn't have magical powers, there's nothing to know.  That he's a big jerk?  They found that out in like two days at most.  The main thing that screwed up the Rob party was being "old school" numbskulls who wouldn't go look for the idol out of moronic principle, combined with Tyson's boneheadedness.  That has nothing to do with Russell not being known, only that he's, admirable in this limited sense, not willing to go along with such foolishness and went and got that idol.

[Hera]

I always thought that, if anything, Russell was at a massive disadvantage in Heroes vs. Villains because I don't think he realized that he had lost Samoa until after he got back from filming his second season. I'm sure I remember seeing confessionals from HvV where it seemed like they had to cut around statements claiming to have won his first time. So cue someone pointing me to an air-tight source that says he knew he had lost Samoa, but was claiming to have just "run the game" without considering what it says about him that he ran the game right into a victory for someone else.

While I don't think Russell would have known how to adjust his game (he certainly didn't in Redemption Island, though he wound up on a tribe that wasn't all that willing to give him a chance to do so), I think he might have more wary of teaming up with Parvati. Then again, it's clear he had a massive crush on her, so maybe he was doomed no matter what.

[Constantinople]

Tyson voting himself out of the game was a thing of beauty.

That alone should have disqualified him from ever being invited back.

[303420]

From the current season's Sandra thread. I hope it's appropriate to summon @KimberStormer and @ProfCrash here.

On 3/15/2017 at 0:00 PM, KimberStormer said:

I've said it before and I'll say it again, failing to convince the Heroes was not the problem; trying to convince them in the first place was.  There was one road to the win for Sandra and that road was an All-Villain F3.  She tried to wreck her own game by trying to vote out Russell.  Nothing good for Sandra could have come from them believing her and working with her.  And nothing would have made it worth the Heroes' while to take her along; she would have been like Candice, voted out as soon as she was not useful.  If Sandra succeeds at the merge, I see either JT or Amanda winning, unless Amanda totally blows it at F3 again and some horrible result like Colby winning is the upshot.  (And HvV becomes a terrible season because who wants to watch those horrible Heroes winning?  Ugh.)

I love Sandra, and as we are seeing she is wily and adaptable even to the position of Queen (so convincingly that now it seems "She can put together an alliance in 15 minutes!" is becoming a retroactive Sandra Thing That Everyone Knows About), and she did play a great game at several points during HvV; but I just don't think that it makes any sense to point to the attempt to convince the Heroes to vote out Russell as a resume bullet for Sandra.  It was a bad idea and its failure (whoever you want to "blame" for that) saved her bacon.

You're assuming that if they'd agreed, she would have stuck with that plan. I think she was just feeling out options because she hated Russell so much. No one can say for sure what she would or wouldn't have done, but I don't think it's unlikely that had they agreed, she would have come to the same conclusion you did and stay with Russell anyway. 

Sorry so many double negatives. I'm totally a Sandra apologist. You might say I'm an unapologetic Sandra apologist.

Edited March 21, 2017 by 303420

[cherrypj]

W. T. F. TYSON.

It's one thing to read about Tyson essentially voting for himself, it's another to see it. All it took was a few words from Little Russell, and Tyson folded ... because he wanted to get the vote over with quicker. ?

I agree with @Constantinople: that kind of stupidity should have disqualified him from coming back.

[enlightenedbum]

The version presented on the show is not really accurate.  Tyson was already thinking about doing that because he viewed Parvati as the bigger threat and he's an impatient idiot.

[cherrypj]

Maybe so, @enlightenedbum. I'm still astounded at his final words: "I'm still awesome." No, you're not. It's one thing to make a risky move that might work, this wasn't one. 

[Zima]

I just watched this season for the first time, and man, what a disappointment. I knew that Sandra was going to win because of all the hype about her in the current season, but I wanted to see how and why.  Parvarti and even Russel were robbed. Sandra accomplished absolutely nothing.  A bitter jury refused to vote for Russel, and Parvarti was hated by most of the women, and also hated by the insecure bro-type males.  I absolutely loathe it when the jury is bitter; to me, it feels like the entire season was a waste when the person who won has done nothing to deserve it.  With all the love Sandra gets on these forums, I was really expecting to watch some kind of crazy manipulation and game play happen. That was not the case at all.  I found myself agreeing with Russel at the reunion, and I thought he was ridiculous at FTC. 

Edited May 25, 2017 by Zima

[Nalan]

Sorry.  Russell deserved the bitterness he got.  He just plain blew the social game, and most of his strategic game just alienated people.  Parvati understood the importance of both, so I could say that she was robbed.  But Sandra did at least try to make moves.  And she did try and warn the Heroes of what would happen.  But it's not her fault that they were too into following their own egos to their own demises.  They realized it, and that's why she won.

[Zima]

4 hours ago, Nalan said:

Sorry.  Russell deserved the bitterness he got.  He just plain blew the social game, and most of his strategic game just alienated people.  Parvati understood the importance of both, so I could say that she was robbed.  But Sandra did at least try to make moves.  And she did try and warn the Heroes of what would happen.  But it's not her fault that they were too into following their own egos to their own demises.  They realized it, and that's why she won.

 I saw nothing to be impressed with as far as Sandra was concerned. Russel and Parvati also tried to do things; the difference was that they were successful.  I get why Russel didn't get any votes. He did blow the social aspect of the game. I even said that I thought he was ridiculous at FTC. The jury tried to give him chances to apologize or explain what he did in a more relateable way, and he refused. For that, he is an idiot. Other than a bitter jury, there was absolutely no reason for Sandra to win over Parvati, and the fact that she did ruined an otherwise good season for me. 

Edited May 25, 2017 by Zima

[enlightenedbum]

Always remember that the win condition is to get people to vote to give you a million dollars, not to be the driving factor behind the most vote outs or the best at dumb carnival games (yes, Ozzy and Brad, this means you).

As a side effect, this means the jury cannot actually be wrong.

[KimberStormer]

If I can disagree with who people decide to vote out and how they decide to play the social game then I can disagree with who they vote for too.  Getting voted out does not give you a get-out-of-criticism-free card.  I think the Heroes voted wrong on this one because they were up their own asses.  Disagree with that, sure, don't tell me I'm not allowed to think it.

cranky tired posting, whoops

Edited May 25, 2017 by KimberStormer
noticed I'm cranky

[Zima]

8 hours ago, enlightenedbum said:

Always remember that the win condition is to get people to vote to give you a million dollars, not to be the driving factor behind the most vote outs or the best at dumb carnival games (yes, Ozzy and Brad, this means you).

As a side effect, this means the jury cannot actually be wrong.

None of this means that people can't be disappointed, or disagree with who the jury voted for and their reasons for doing so.  Like I said, I watched this season to see what all the fuss over Sandra was about, and found nothing to back up everyone's obsession with her game-play.  Everyone can continue to like and enjoy her for whatever reason, but my opinion is that she is completely overrated and that the other two (particularly Parvati) sitting next to her at the end were robbed because of a bitter jury. 

Edited May 25, 2017 by Zima

[Oholibamah]

1 hour ago, Zima said:

None of this means that people can't be disappointed, or disagree with who the jury voted for and their reasons for doing so.  Like I said, I watched this season to see what all the fuss over Sandra was about, and found nothing to back up everyone's obsession with her game-play.  Everyone can continue to like and enjoy her for whatever reason, but my opinion is that she is completely overrated and that the other two (particularly Parvati) sitting next to her at the end were robbed because of a bitter jury. 

This one's tough because it's a returning player season, which always comes with extra baggage. Candice and Rupert had well developed relationships with Sandra outside the game, while Courtney's early alliance with Sandra made her vote a no-brainer. Amanda was indeed bitter, but that was from stuff outside the game and for having lost to Parvati previously. Not sure if that makes it better or worse, but there's 4 votes Parvati was never going to get. 

JT and Colby were bitter.

But it wasn't just a case of bitter jury. It was avoidable had Russell and Parvati taken Jerri to the F3 instead of Sandra. Instead, Sandra spent weeks playing into Russell's ego and preparing herself for the F4 boot. So, bitter jury, or jury punishing the mistake of taking a known social threat to the end? Parvati was at risk of getting booted herself if she pushed for Jerri instead. In retrospect she should have taken the gamble. 

I think Parvati played a better game, but I see how Sandra won and am fine with it. 

But Sandra's reputation is from managing to win twice, not so much just for her performance in any individual season. So I'm not sure it's accurate to deem her overrated based on just one season.

Edited May 25, 2017 by Oholibamah

[ljenkins782]

1 hour ago, Oholibamah said:

This one's tough because it's a returning player season, which always comes with extra baggage. Candice and Rupert had well developed relationships with Sandra outside the game, while Courtney's early alliance with Sandra made her vote a no-brainer. Amanda was indeed bitter, but that was from stuff outside the game and for having lost to Parvati previously. Not sure if that makes it better or worse, but there's 4 votes Parvati was never going to get. 

JT and Colby were bitter.

But it wasn't just a case of bitter jury. It was avoidable had Russell and Parvati taken Jerri to the F3 instead of Sandra. Instead, Sandra spent weeks playing into Russell's ego and preparing herself for the F4 boot. So, bitter jury, or jury punishing the mistake of taking a known social threat to the end? Parvati was at risk of getting booted herself if she pushed for Jerri instead. In retrospect she should have taken the gamble. 

I think Parvati played a better game, but I see how Sandra won and am fine with it. 

But Sandra's reputation is from managing to win twice, not so much just for her performance in any individual season. So I'm not sure it's accurate to deem her overrated based on just one season.

Yeah, it's kinda similar to Brad and Troyzan being in the driver's seat vote-wise and choosing Sarah over Tai. A well played game imploded in one bad move. Like Parvati, Troyzan knew the other person was a better choice but didn't push hard enough to make it happen. 

It would have been funny to see Colby's decision making process if Jerri had indeed been the 3rd person in the FTC. Sure, he hated Russell and Parvati, but could he possibly bring himself to vote for his arch nemesis Jerri? 

[LadyChatts]

I agree that returning player seasons are trickier, due to past game dynamics and relationships outside the game.  I'm in the process of re-watching this season, but I feel now as I did then: I would have given the win to Parvati.  The heroes seemed to butt hurt over losing miserably and getting their numbers advantage taken away embarrassingly due to JT's idol blunder.  Parvati seemed to find herself in a similar situation like Micronesia, where she was targeted early, but spared, and her alliance got the majority.  Russell dug his own grave.  Since no one had seen Samoa, he could get away with his previous game play, and he believed he had already won once, so didn't think to modify anything he might have done wrong (of course I don't think he thinks he did anything wrong).

The jury did seem bitter, but I think that was more the egos of the heroes being crushed.

[simplyme]

1 hour ago, LadyChatts said:

The jury did seem bitter, but I think that was more the egos of the heroes being crushed.

As far as I'm concerned, a couple of them obviously weren't crushed enough and they learned little from their mistakes. Rupert and JT continued to underestimate women in their next appearances. They both need handlers. Actually, I'd say JT needs both a handler or two and an opposing tribe that's hideously dysfunctional. I'm not really sure there's any way Rupert wins anything other than fan favorite short of a catastrophic meteor strike.

[KimberStormer]

Oh I think Jerri would have won in that spot too.  She would get all the Heroes and Coach IMO.  And it would have been well-deserved since she played a killer game.  (And would have been an amazing redemption edit playing up all her great moves.)  I think Parvati knew it was a lost cause at that point and yeah pushing to vote out Sandra would have put her in danger so why bother.  The mistake was all Russell's and it was voting out Danielle.  Russell could have gotten that 2nd place money if Danielle was there, as he would have gotten JT and Rupert and Colby, I bet.  But nobody's voting Danielle, and Sandra, Courtney, Jerri, Coach would enthusiastically vote for Parvati, and Amanda and Candice would suck it up too.

It would have made me very happy and I don't think there would be any debate about Parvati being the best ever, at that point.  Some (Mario Lanza types) pull the "SHE GOT TOO CUTE WITH THE 2 IDOLS" baloney but you have to play like people aren't complete and total fucking idiots like Russell was about that Danielle vote.  He destroyed his only snowball's chance of a single vote for no reason.

Edited May 25, 2017 by KimberStormer

[NutMeg]

On 5/26/2017 at 2:45 AM, Oholibamah said:

This one's tough because it's a returning player season, which always comes with extra baggage. Candice and Rupert had well developed relationships with Sandra outside the game, while Courtney's early alliance with Sandra made her vote a no-brainer. Amanda was indeed bitter, but that was from stuff outside the game and for having lost to Parvati previously. Not sure if that makes it better or worse, but there's 4 votes Parvati was never going to get. 

JT and Colby were bitter.

But it wasn't just a case of bitter jury. It was avoidable had Russell and Parvati taken Jerri to the F3 instead of Sandra. Instead, Sandra spent weeks playing into Russell's ego and preparing herself for the F4 boot. So, bitter jury, or jury punishing the mistake of taking a known social threat to the end? Parvati was at risk of getting booted herself if she pushed for Jerri instead. In retrospect she should have taken the gamble. 

I think Parvati played a better game, but I see how Sandra won and am fine with it. 

But Sandra's reputation is from managing to win twice, not so much just for her performance in any individual season. So I'm not sure it's accurate to deem her overrated based on just one season.

Yes, and Candice also seemed to have some resentment towards Parvati: I call this the "you mean I'm not your BFF after all!?" syndrome that seems to be the flip side of Parvati's ability to develop strong connections with any human being she interacts with.

I also thought Parvati played a great game, but it had one big flaw which she hadn't suffered before: jury management, or at least getting close enough to the jury. It made sense, with the way she played, that only hardcore fans would appreciate it. Which the 'heroes' were not - too busy to play up to the hero monicker to be humble enough to realize they were played. 

And to be fair, while they were played initially by their perception of Russell, then by Parvati's gameplay, they were ultimately played by Sandra, who at some stage seemed to almost relish her role as a Cassandra that nobody would listen to because she could see a narrative building that would get her the win.

It's a rare season when I'm happy with the winner and would have been as equally happy with another of the F2/3. I think there are only two other seasons. Or maybe even just one other.  

On 5/26/2017 at 5:54 AM, simplyme said:

As far as I'm concerned, a couple of them obviously weren't crushed enough and they learned little from their mistakes. Rupert and JT continued to underestimate women in their next appearances. They both need handlers. Actually, I'd say JT needs both a handler or two and an opposing tribe that's hideously dysfunctional. I'm not really sure there's any way Rupert wins anything other than fan favorite short of a catastrophic meteor strike.

Did Rupert come back since? I agree about JT though. He's only half of the yin/yang perfection and cannot function without a cautious/pessimistic/court jester to temper his craziest ideas.

[simplyme]

9 minutes ago, NutMeg said:

Did Rupert come back since? I agree about JT though. He's only half of the yin/yang perfection and cannot function without a cautious/pessimistic/court jester to temper his craziest ideas.

Rupert came back for Blood vs Water

Spoiler

where he switched places with his wife at Redemption Island before the tribes even went off to find their camps, making his usual grandiose statements. (Candice's husband let Candice handle it herself.) Rupert sat around at RI and made Candice do all the work. After Gervase's niece joined them, they had the first battle, which Rupert lost, and thus he went home.

Figured I'd put that bit in a spoiler tag in case anyone hasn't seen BvW.

[LanceM]

anyone see this? Lost footage of HvV alternate Natalie Bolton the day before filming began. I would have loved to see her on this season.

 

[NutMeg]

2 minutes ago, simplyme said:

Rupert came back for Blood vs Water

  Reveal hidden contents

where he switched places with his wife at Redemption Island before the tribes even went off to find their camps, making his usual grandiose statements. (Candice's husband let Candice handle it herself.) Rupert sat around at RI and made Candice do all the work. After Gervase's niece joined them, they had the first battle, which Rupert lost, and thus he went home.

Figured I'd put that bit in a spoiler tag in case anyone hasn't seen BvW.

Thanks, I remember now, but apparently he was gone so fast that he didn't have time to stick in my memory :)

[simplyme]

So in rewatches (for me) and first-time watches for SimplyMom, we're now up to this season, and so far SimplyMom is just gobsmacked. I'm enjoying the heck out of watching this season with her. The Tyson voting-himself-out thing: "He's not really going to vote for Parvati, is he? Why would he? That would be stupid." And as his torch gets snuffed, "Well, James and Erik, you can rest easy now. That was the stupidest thing I've seen yet." (Personally, I loved Rob's confused look.)

As Rupert says, "There's obviously a women's alliance over there": SimplyMom says, "What is with these men and their fear of women?" (Admittedly, she noticed on her own in Tocantins that JT would have voted out a woman every chance he had if Stephen hadn't talked him down. Cuz women are scary and untrustworthy, but Coach is noble.)

As JT explains his plan to give the HII to Russell: "He has the brains of a turnip. A turnip!" The note itself just elicited actual splutters. I think she was beyond words at that point.

That's where we are now... Just before the merge. More viewing tonight once we wrest the TV from SimplyDad. She can't wait to see how this plays out. I can't wait to see her reactions.

Oh, I wanted to say that Candice does really well in challenges, but you can see she's pretty much over her tribe. She's talked to Amanda about JT, but Amanda has been wishywashy, so at this point you can pretty much tell that Candice is satisfied if JT and Rupert eff off and die. Screw winning. She knows she has no chance.

[SVNBob]

5 hours ago, simplyme said:

As JT explains his plan to give the HII to Russell:

I maintain that JT's Idol Pass Play was a smart and innovative move; no one had ever thought to use the HII in that manner at the tribal stage of the game, to gain a cross-tribal alliance/majority.  And if had been any other recipient but the one involved, it might have worked and been lauded.

It's only seen as a "bad move" because of the other player in the move and knowledge about that player and their tribal dynamics JT could not have had.

• As discussed in this thread, the previous season had not aired at all prior to the filming of HvV, so JT had no prior knowledge of said player.  Yes, the fact he was on the Villain tribe should have been a clue.  But not all the Villains were really villainous.  Sandra and Courtney (and Tyson) are snarky-ass bitches, and Benji is a bit of a loon.  And who really remembered Danielle at that time.  So why would JT expect that there was one Villain that actually reveled in being a Villain?
• Sometimes people forget that we, the audience, get to see (a version of) the dynamics of both/all tribes, including the THs so we know what particular players are thinking.  But the players in the game at the time only get to see the dynamics of the tribe they are currently in at any given moment.  All information about other tribes is educated guesses, at best, based on who they see survive the previous TC.
• Rupert's "theory" about a woman's alliance was not too illogical, based on an outside and incomplete view of the Villain tribe.  Randy as first boot isn't really a big deal.  But booting Tyson and BRob in the tribal stage, over self-admitted weak challenge players Courtney and Sandra?  That doesn't make a lot of sense in Old School Survivor, (This season is around the turning point between the schools, but Rupert and JT were (at the time, at least) mentally still in the Old School.) unless the women all banded together after the Randy boot.  Then Benji as the next boot, still over those two weak links?  That and the last man's "begging and pleading" all but confirmed a female alliance.
• Because of the theory of a female alliance had been spoken (and seemingly proven), and Parvati had a history with female alliances (the Black Widow Brigade that helped her earn her win and Villain reputation), JT could make a logical conclusion that she had formed another similar alliance.  So she would be the biggest threat on that side, and the one man left standing would be at the bottom of the pecking order.  Again, good logic based on incomplete information.  JT had no way of knowing the person he thought was leading the alliance was the second-in-command, and the person he thought was at the bottom was actually the leader.

So, JT devised a plan to cut the head off an opposing alliance by giving the person that seemed to be most likely eliminated next the means to save themself and eliminate the biggest threat in a single stroke.  And in case that person hadn't ever played an HII or seen FvF, he detailed in a note how to use the idol and who the best target was, along with a promise of further alliance, and a "change of reputation" come the merge.  Then he figured out how to pass everything off to his target at the next IC, without getting caught by the members of the opposing alliance, and did it.   In any other season, this would have been brilliant! 

But because of the actual people involved, it was doomed to backfire.  And did so in the most spectacular manner.  (Parvati's Double Idol Play.  Still better than the Immunity Train.)  But there was one saving grace; the note.  Because of who he is, the troll that got the note kept reading it out loud after the merge.  Daily.  In front of the Heroes still in the game at the time.  Jury mismanagement at it's finest.  And he kept roping Parvati in to the reading sessions, despite her saying he shouldn't do it again.  So she got some blowback from that too.  Because of that, anyone sitting with both of them at FTC was practically guaranteed to win.

 

TL;DR version: JT's Idol Pass play: good move in theory; bad in this implementation because of inaccurate information.  But still helped Sandra win.

[LadyChatts]

Quote

As JT explains his plan to give the HII to Russell: "He has the brains of a turnip. A turnip!" The note itself just elicited actual splutters. I think she was beyond words at that point.

Between this and JT's blunders this past season I feel like that's an insult to turnips.

I've been re-watching this season, and am up to the merge part, too.  I won't lie that I've re-watched (many times) JT writing the letter to Russell, Russell giving the sad face to him and Colby at the RC, and then Russell, Parvati, and Danielle laughing about it back at the villains beach (with Parvati throwing in some of her own comments to the letter).  It was especially fitting that the 3 men and their egos at the Heroes beach thought this was such a smart idea, making Survivor history, not thinking how it could possibly go wrong, while Amanda and Candice knew that this might not be the smartest idea.  But of course you weren't going to get JT, Colby, and Rupert listening to the 2 women.  Seeing the Heroes crash and burn in spectacular fashion was such a big highlight this season.  I don't think it would have been nearly as good had they dominated.

[cherrypj]

Nice writeup, @SVNBob, but it doesn't hang together for me. It's flimsy ("villains aren't really villains") on flimsy ("there must be a women's alliance!") on flimsy ("Parvati's playing the exact same game she played last time"--why would she, JT didn't). At some point, it's a house of cards. And there's Sandra. She had all that information. I can see taking a risk on incomplete knowledge; I can't see sketching together a plan with a foundation of sand, cardboard walls, a cotton roof, and against the wishes of a insurance agent (Sandra, if you must know) telling you not to build!

(I've just realized that JT gives the idol away before the merge. Hmm.)

JT had the grace to admit that he made his bed during the FTC. He didn't vote for Russell, either.

The more interesting question, for me, is whether Parvati should have won. I'm not unhappy Sandra won; her argument that she tried to warn everyone was a fine one, but I agree with @KimberStormer that Sandra's not sitting there in FTC if it had been a successful one. Parvati just couldn't get the stink of the lil troll off. 

If it's true that Russell kept reading the note in camp, that confirms he's a terrible player. Getting to the end doesn't make you great player. Not every player has a 1-in-x chance of winning when there's x people left--I wish Jeffy would stop with that nonsense. 

Who were the numbnuts that voted him Fan Favorite? ?

Edited June 4, 2017 by cherrypj
Timeline matters.

[fishcakes]

6 hours ago, SVNBob said:

It's only seen as a "bad move" because of the other player in the move and knowledge about that player and their tribal dynamics JT could not have had.

To me, this negates the rest of your argument. It's seen as a bad move -- and is a bad move -- because of knowledge that JT didn't have about Russell and about the dynamics of the other tribe. He had zero information. He gave his idol to a person he knew nothing about, who was on a tribe he knew nothing about. That this resulted in him being eliminated should come as a surprise to no one.

[simplyme]

3 hours ago, cherrypj said:

The more interesting question, for me, is whether Parvati should have won. I'm not unhappy Sandra won; her argument that she tried to warn everyone was a fine one, but I agree with @KimberStormer that Sandra's not sitting there in FTC if it had been a successful one. Parvati just couldn't get the stink of the lil troll off. 

To me, this season is an excellent example of how different casts impact a castaway's chances to win.

Parvati was not only hurt by her association with Russell but by a jury with multiple members who viewed her from the beginning as evil and manipulative. James was holding a grudge, Rupert and Colby were into the "we're heroes" thing, and JT distrusts women. (Had Russell not been a jerk to JT, I think he would have had JT's vote. As it was, JT had to choose between two women, and he wasn't going to choose Parv who he gave Russell the HII to get rid of.)

Candice, Tom, and Stephenie never had much of a prayer either simply based on the make-up of the Heroes tribe and the alliance of people who knew each other. This is the tribe that got rid of Tom and kept an injured James. Stephenie was a target from day one. Candice was scary because she was smart! (Thank you, JT, for saying essentially that after your first in-depth talk with her.) Once JT blindsided Cirie, he removed the only real obstacle to him running the tribe. Rupert, James, and Amanda all followed him. Amanda occasionally acted torn and did doe eyes as she did so. *eyeroll*

So to me, I don't know if you can say Parvati should have won, because that opens a can of worms. Parv only made it to the end because she was a villain. If she starts out as a hero, she's screwed, just like others were.

I think the best you can do is note various effects on the season and how they possibly impacted the outcome. But the winner is the winner, even if it drives you bananas*.

*(To quote James, "Did you know there's such a thing as banana etiquette?")

[Oholibamah]

I agree with the analogy of the Idol-Pass being predicated on a series of assumptions that made it too house-of-cards. But as a risk:reward ratio, was it really that destructive?

If it had worked, the Heroes go into a merge 6-4, and JT has an assured ally. That's huge. 

The risk/downside is exactly what we saw happen: the Villains have an extra Idol to use. But did it really change anything? Maybe the Heroes would have played their Idol on the right person. Maybe Parvati wouldn't have played the one Villain Idol on Jerri (although I think she would have). Maybe Sandra would have flipped. Maybe a Villain would have pulled the PRoD. But all these maybes become card-house-esque just like JT's original move. Is it any less risky? 

Not to mention, JT had a lot of trust issues within his tribe, and vowed to use the HII for their mutual benefit. There was reason for him to publicly get rid of it to try and gain trust with his tribe. 

Tl;dr: the move failed, but the risk:reward ratio made it worth it. I don't see the Heroes in much better a spot had he not done it. 

[simplyme]

9 minutes ago, Oholibamah said:

Tl;dr: the move failed, but the risk:reward ratio made it worth it. I don't see the Heroes in much better a spot had he not done it. 

The bigger issue may simply be that the Heroes were so convinced it was a women's alliance. That led to JT handing over the HII. It led to the Heroes concocting explanations for why Parvati was still there when they merged (JT says in a TH that the only explanation is that she must have played an idol too.), even before Russell explains. Even when Russell's explanation has holes (he and Parvati played idols but weren't allowed to vote in the revote), the Heroes swallow it. It led to the Heroes not talking to any of the villains except Russell, really, and Sandra having to sneak in one chat with Rupert to give him the low-down. It led to JT immediately declaring that Sandra had to be the one lying with only Rupert arguing with him.

Actually, I see the eagerness to see a women's alliance as a symptom of the general distrust the dominant members of the Heroes tribe had for women the whole game. Men don't go home only when women vote for them. Often (especially pre-merge) they go home due to a power struggle between two men. Amanda knew giving the HII up based on the assumption of a women's alliance was dumb. She said so in a TH. Candice supported the move because she would rather a villain have the HII than JT (which tells you what Candice thought of JT by then.)  But in that tribe, no one was going to care what Amanda or the evil, sneaky Candice thought anyways. The worst Amanda would do is cry and then acquiesce.

Tl;dr: I'm back to the make-up of the Heroes tribe screwed them. Too much group think, too little logic.

[enlightenedbum]

Yeah, the Heroes were basically gigantic unearned egos with no one to calm them down.  And once Cirie was gone, the closest thing to a strategist left was Amanda.

[Daisy]

4 minutes ago, enlightenedbum said:

Yeah, the Heroes were basically gigantic unearned egos with no one to calm them down.  And once Cirie was gone, the closest thing to a strategist left was Amanda.

Pretty much. This was discussed in Cirie's thread and so I want to kind of bring it over. 
I think one of the best things JT did was to take out Cirie (for why he said it, what it was representing, and I think Cirie was way too aggressive  - which is why in GC she was so quiet basically until she did the idol thing on Sarah). 

Picture it. Day 7, Samoa. 
Cirie is doing her thing. (Her thing is, taking out the biggest target this case Tom). They come up with a plan to take out Tom, JT is with them, and then someone changes the target. I can't remember who the target is, but it's no longer Tom. Cirie finds out and she does a little temper tantrum that she did in Micronesia. But this time while she's trying to convince James and Amanda (to her credit - she totally snowed them back in), JT is watching her from above and went, yah - this isn't going to work. she can sweet talk too many people, she's running the game, I want to run the game. 

Day 9, Cirie's the third person out. 

Day 12 - There goes Tom. (because they were stupid), but whatever. 

It made sense and I don't think you could argue why this would have been an issue. But as was pointed out. You've got Colby who gave zero poops to being on the show. (why he even came is beyond me), Tom who in my opinion isn't really that strong strategically to begin with. Amanda who basically was burned so badly in two final tribal councils really didn't want to do anything imo, Candice who was over that tribe, James who is meh and ego (and hurt), Rupert who is a "HERO!" (just like he was a PIRATE!!") and JT who in my humble opinion was running on 100 percent southern charm and Stephen's brains in Brazil.  (and also. does not like women on this show from what I can tell). So remove Cirie, you basically remove the brains (and the only person imo who could have controlled some of the direction of that tribe). But the thing is - and I said this at the time, ironically the best person for Cirie to work with was actually Tom. And I don't think Tom was gonna work with her and there was no way Cirie was going to work with Tom and Colby. Pity. 

If Cirie had lasted until Day 13, I doubt very much JT decides to write that letter because Cirie would have squashed that poop down right quick. like her TH is in my head right now. "why would you EVER give someone the idol from the other tribe? Come on now, you can't be that stuPID." complete with that high pitch at the end and her Cirie laugh. But again JT was determined to play differently so. who knows. 

 

I do wish that Danielle was a Hero and cirie was a Villain just that little tweak would have been interesting. 

[SVNBob]

11 minutes ago, Daisy said:

If Cirie had lasted until Day 13, I doubt very much JT decides to write that letter because Cirie would have squashed that poop down right quick. like her TH is in my head right now. "why would you EVER give someone the idol from the other tribe? Come on now, you can't be that stuPID." complete with that high pitch at the end and her Cirie laugh. But again JT was determined to play differently so. who knows. 

My money's on that he still would have done the whole Idol Pass play, just not telling anyone other than Rupert about it until after he did it.  But it's Cirie that takes the brunt of Parvati's Double Idol Distrubution, since she's a bigger threat than JT after the merge.

[Daisy]

Just now, SVNBob said:

My money's on that he still would have done the whole Idol Pass play, just not telling anyone other than Rupert about it until after he did it.

Probably. JT was super determined to do it. 

[KimberStormer]

23 minutes ago, Daisy said:

Day 12 - There goes Tom. (because they were stupid), but whatever. 

It made sense and I don't think you could argue why this would have been an issue. But as was pointed out. You've got Colby who gave zero poops to being on the show. (why he even came is beyond me), Tom who in my opinion isn't really that strong strategically to begin with. Amanda who basically was burned so badly in two final tribal councils really didn't want to do anything imo, Candice who was over that tribe, James who is meh and ego (and hurt), Rupert who is a "HERO!" (just like he was a PIRATE!!") and JT who in my humble opinion was running on 100 percent southern charm and Stephen's brains in Brazil.  (and also. does not like women on this show from what I can tell). So remove Cirie, you basically remove the brains (and the only person imo who could have controlled some of the direction of that tribe).

It's weird to me that you can give JT credit for his move but also say he's a brainless moron.  To me you've just explained exactly why take out Tom: who the hell else can beat JT out of this sorry crew?  Who can even give him trouble in the endgame?  Only Amanda, but Amanda's barely into it and if JT does take out Parvati with his idol pass, Amanda is a lot less scary.

I know, I know, obviously JT doesn't actually think ahead, he can't possibly have an idea in his head but "WOOOMAN BAD", and you all know this because reasons.

[Daisy]

Just now, KimberStormer said:

It's weird to me that you can give JT credit for his move but also say he's a brainless moron.  To me you've just explained exactly why take out Tom: who the hell else can beat JT out of this sorry crew?  Who can even give him trouble in the endgame?  Only Amanda, but Amanda's barely into it and if JT does take out Parvati with his idol pass, Amanda is a lot less scary.

I know, I know, obviously JT doesn't actually think ahead, he can't possibly have an idea in his head but "WOOOMAN BAD", and you all know this because reasons.

Actually no. 
Tom wasn't injured and James was by this point right?  (I really can't remember if James was Medivacted again, or he was basically the obvious choice due to his bum ankle). why keep James. and from what I could recall Tom was willing to work with JT. That was the dumb part.

Keep Tom. You have Rupert (who can still beat out Tom in a challenge), Russell (who was good at challenges)..  

That's. by my thinking. 

JT (running the show), Tom, Colby (half there, and wouldn't have won the game), Rupert, and Amanda. (arguments sake) and "Russell" (because JT thought Russell was there). 

vs

Candace, Jerri, Danielle, Sandra. (Parv is gone, and Russell flips in JT's head). 

Heroes pick of Candace for deserting, Danielle, and Jerry. Sandra does her "anyone but me"  she gets bounced. pick off Tom (Russell, JT, Rupert are all viable options).  Pick off Amanda/Colby, your final 3 of JT, Russell and Rupert.  Tom/Russell provide fodder, but JT plays a strong enough game to show how he was the brains of the operation, starting with the Cirie vote, keeping Russell safe, bing bang boom, JT's the winner. I mean heck. I'd vote for him (providing on his arguments). 

so.. actually no. your last comment of 

9 minutes ago, KimberStormer said:

I know, I know, obviously JT doesn't actually think ahead, he can't possibly have an idea in his head but "WOOOMAN BAD", and you all know this because reasons.

wasn't where i was going with it at all. I mean, I'll admit - i really don't like JT but I see why he did the things he did and I think with what he had to go on it kinda made sense. Up until the point of keeping James over Tom. I wouldn't have done it. (but that's not how JT wanted to play) ad obviously re: the idol which someone pointed out, even if you remove the woman's alliance thing - you are basically giving an idol to someone you don't know, barely talked to and have no idea what their game is about. That is risky. and I feel is dumb regardless who have done it.  Russell played that up amazingly imo. 

 

[KimberStormer]

But why not do the exact same thing, just with James who's injured and can't win challenges and poses no FTC threat?  Tom was willing to work with JT but a) the rest of the alliance wanted him gone and JT has already used up all his political capital on the Cirie vote and b) no Rupert cannot beat Tom at a challenge, don't be silly.  Tom is one of the greatest challenge threats ever in the history of the game, plus he's a good talker and has demonstrated ability to win.

I don't think it's the best move ever or anything, but it makes sense to me to vote out Tom there.

[Daisy]

27 minutes ago, KimberStormer said:

But why not do the exact same thing, just with James who's injured and can't win challenges and poses no FTC threat?  Tom was willing to work with JT but a) the rest of the alliance wanted him gone and JT has already used up all his political capital on the Cirie vote and b) no Rupert cannot beat Tom at a challenge, don't be silly.  Tom is one of the greatest challenge threats ever in the history of the game, plus he's a good talker and has demonstrated ability to win.

I don't think it's the best move ever or anything, but it makes sense to me to vote out Tom there.

Depending on the challenge Rupert could. Or at least put up some sort of challenge.  I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility. Again. for me. as it was still very much "tribe", I wouldn't have voted out Tom in that situation. I would have voted out James. And I think especially because with Palau - JT could have easily been the "Ian" (sort of) for Tom, because I think you always need that foil, and Tom wasn't getting that with Colby. I think the two of them could have worked well. and ultimately needed each other but JT wasn't interested in that type of game - hence why he booted him out and why it worked for JT. which I give him credit for. 

I just feel if it were me, I wouldn't have booted out the healthy guy over the injured guy. Regardless of the past - There could have been opportunities to get him when needed (like even in Palau, Tom lost challenges. He had Ian to cover his back for some, Caryn too, but it's not like Tom would have been impenetrable.

Ultimately - just to stress this. I thought the move was dumb at the time as a viewer because why keep the injured player. (and I didn't even put that on JT. i think that was a tribe decision). but it didn't matter because the next episode was a double boot - and that's when Tyson voted himself off, and James left anyway and then the Villains lost 3 in a row - so they didn't need Tom or James. What sank the Heroes were the following

1: Idol Pass. (again. it's not a JT thing, I'd be saying it was a dumb idea regardless who did it. someone said it above. You are giving an idol to someone you don't know, you don't know their game, and you don't know that they are with you. That is equal parts brave, and foolish. if it works we look at it differently, but I mean I'd still call it risk)

2: Ego. Sandra was willing to flip several times (to the point of shooting down her own game) to get Russell out and work with the Heroes.  Candice flipped and so did Russell. boom, boom.  

3: I just think a lot of the heroes were over it. it would have been really interesting to see say, Colby had Jerri/Sandra/Parv got voted out. or if he was just a done ole lost cause by that point. 

[Nalan]

17 hours ago, Daisy said:

Day 9, Cirie's the third person out.

You really don't remember that boot order.  Cirie was the fourth person out.  Sugar, Stephenie, and Randy were voted out before her, in that order.

15 hours ago, Daisy said:

3: I just think a lot of the heroes were over it. it would have been really interesting to see say, Colby had Jerri/Sandra/Parv got voted out. or if he was just a done ole lost cause by that point. 

And why were they over it?  At the very least, Candice, Amanda, and Colby were over it because of @KimberStormer's hero and the distrust and misery he'd sown among the tribe.  Before he was running the tribe, they were generally enjoying themselves.

[Daisy]

Just now, Nalan said:

You really don't remember that boot order.  Cirie was the fourth person out.  Sugar, Stephenie, and Randy were voted out before her, in that order.

And why were they over it?  At the very least, Candice, Amanda, and Colby were over it because of @KimberStormer's hero and the distrust and misery he'd sown among the tribe.  Before he was running the tribe, they were generally enjoying themselves.

I admit it. Shame shame shame on me. LOL the spirit of what I mean is there right. 
that is also true. I think though Colby was going to check out regardless, he basically said the fact they couldn't go into the water and really couldn't explore killed him. 

[fishcakes]

23 minutes ago, Daisy said:

that is also true. I think though Colby was going to check out regardless, he basically said the fact they couldn't go into the water and really couldn't explore killed him. 

Also this was the season he had a wicked diaper rash thing going on. There were secret scenes of him walking bowlegged because of the chafing. He really did not have a good time out there. I was surprised that he played the third time; after All-Stars, he said that playing a second time was completely different because he didn't feel that drive to compete. By the HvV season, he did seem completely checked out. As I recall, the only challenge he did well in was shuffleboard, which was sad to me because for all the talk in the Game Changers season about how rare it was for anyone to win 5 ICs, in the Outback season, Colby won 5 individual ICs and 3 individual RCs. In each of the last six episodes, he won either reward or immunity, and twice, he won both. As far as individual challenges go, I think he has the record, though to be fair, in later seasons there weren't as many individual reward challenges because they did so many of them in teams of two.

[Daisy]

3 minutes ago, fishcakes said:

Also this was the season he had a wicked diaper rash thing going on. There were secret scenes of him walking bowlegged because of the chafing. He really did not have a good time out there. I was surprised that he played the third time; after All-Stars, he said that playing a second time was completely different because he didn't feel that drive to compete. By the HvV season, he did seem completely checked out. As I recall, the only challenge he did well in was shuffleboard, which was sad to me because for all the talk in the Game Changers season about how rare it was for anyone to win 5 ICs, in the Outback season, Colby won 5 individual ICs and 3 individual RCs. In each of the last six episodes, he won either reward or immunity, and twice, he won both. As far as individual challenges go, I think he has the record, though to be fair, in later seasons there weren't as many individual reward challenges because they did so many of them in teams of two.

I think Colby has the Overall record for challenge wins period. 
Kelly Wigglesworth has it for women (because she was like knocking them out of the park near the end). 

I did forget about the diaper rash.. I really felt sorry for Colby. This is just my view - It was Survivor's 10th anniversary, he felt he owed a lot to the show, maybe mentally he thought yah, I can beat these yahoos - and then he shows up and it's like. a buff-fest for a good chunk of the tribe, he can't go in the water, he can't really go exploring and he gets a diaper rash. and then his tribe...is his tribe. and he's behind the eight ball. like honestly the fact that Colby basically told the girls to shut up he wants to watch the movie, (although, deserved) pretty much goes to war to the Texas Challenge Cowboy. 

[simplyme]

According to one of his THs, Colby also got chased around (and outside) the shelter by Sugar, who had realized she didn't have a protector in the game and decided on him for the role. Apparently ignoring her, taking his arms back from her (which she grabbed and wrapped around herself), and getting up and walking away didn't work. She just kept following him, plopping down next to him, and getting cozy again. And talking. 

Apparently Colby is a lot nicer than I am (to the point of doormat), because I would have point blank told her to keep her hands to herself and shut it so I could sleep.

[Nalan]

7 minutes ago, simplyme said:

According to one of his THs, Colby also got chased around (and outside) the shelter by Sugar, who had realized she didn't have a protector in the game and decided on him for the role. Apparently ignoring her, taking his arms back from her (which she grabbed and wrapped around herself), and getting up and walking away didn't work. She just kept following him, plopping down next to him, and getting cozy again. And talking. 

Apparently Colby is a lot nicer than I am (to the point of doormat), because I would have point blank told her to keep her hands to herself and shut it so I could sleep.

That wasn't just a confessional.  We saw some of that happen.  It played heavily into why Sugar was voted out first.

[KimberStormer]

6 hours ago, Nalan said:

And why were they over it?  At the very least, Candice, Amanda, and Colby were over it because of @KimberStormer's hero and the distrust and misery he'd sown among the tribe.  Before he was running the tribe, they were generally enjoying themselves.

I guess he is "my Hero" insofar as he was on the Heroes tribe and just about the only one worth a damn who was there very long (Alas, Cirie) so he was the Hero I was rooting for/enjoyed watching.  (And if he made people like Candice and Colby miserable then I am all the more for him.  My big revelation when I rewatched HvV was that they really, really overedited Colby, he has confessional after confessional of hair-pullingly tedious monotone.) But it's Parvati who is my actual hero, to the point that actually I don't like to argue about her HvV game because I get too emotional.  Like I obviously am a big fan of Survivor, but in the end it will never be perfect because Parvati didn't win this season.

Edited June 6, 2017 by KimberStormer