2016 Awards Season

[AshleyN]

Who do you think the frontrunner is?

I'd say Leo. But like I said, that's more based on the fact that there seems to be a lack of contenders who really seem like they could win. And given his history I wouldn't exactly call it a sure thing.

Edited December 7, 2015 by AshleyN

[Ruby25]

I think Saoirse Ronan is looking really strong for the win right now. Brooklyn is making money and is apparently beloved by the Academy (according to screening reports), is bound to come in with more nominations than Room, and is for a sure a BP nom. And even critics can't resist her (it says more to me that she was the runner-up in all three critics groups today than it does who won- they saw that she won NYFCC the other day and wanted to pick someone else, but still couldn't resist having her in second).

 

And she won the British Independent Film Award for Best Actress today, over Charlotte Rampling (who was chosen by LA and Boston), which means she's going to have support in the UK for sure and will probably be favored to win the BAFTA. If she wins the BAFTA and the Globe? I think she's winning the Oscar. Even if she doesn't take SAG (but she could very well take that one too).

[absnow54]

Washington DC Area Critics Choice:

 

Best Film: Spotlight

Best Director: George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road)

Best Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant)

Best Actress: Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn)

Best Supporting Actor: Idris Elba (Beasts of No Nation)

Best Supporting Actress: Alicia Vikander (Ex Machina)

Best Acting Ensemble: Spotlight

Best Youth Performance: Jacob Tremblay (Room)

Best Adapted Screenplay: Emma Donoghue (Room)

Best Original Screenplay: Pete Docter, Meg LeFauve and Josh Cooley (Original Story by Pete Docter and Ronnie Del Carmen) (Inside Out)

Best Animated Feature: Inside Out

Best Documentary: Amy

Best Foreign Language Film: Son of Saul

Best Production Design: Production Designer: Colin Gibson, Set Decorator: Lisa Thompson (Mad Max: Fury Road)

Best Cinematography: Emmanuel Lubezki, ASC, AMC (The Revenant)

Best Editing: Margaret Sixel (Mad Max: Fury Road)

Best Original Score: Jóhann Jóhannsson (Sicario)

 

I wonder if Alicia Vikander will focus her campaign on Ex Machina rather than The Danish Girl. She was actually nominated for both roles here, and won for Machina. 

Edited December 7, 2015 by absnow54

[blixie]

 

Is it me or do the acting categories seem more up in the air this year than any time in recent memory?

 

No I agree, I think I realized Larson was in trouble when I thought Room was going wide and it never did, that movie was always going to be a tough sell, where as Ronan's movie is heartwarming story of immigrants (a seeming antidote to the more poisonous political narratives out there), it's an all audiences kind of film, Room is going to be more of challenge for the Older membership in the Academy. Dude wise I still think Leo has the edge, he's going ALL out campaign wise, and I think there's no single other performance anyone is championing.

 

It totally bums me out that while MM:FR is getting a lot of notice Charlize is being totally left out. UGH.

[Dejana]

The review embargo for Joy has been lifted...even the mixed/negative reviews praise Lawrence, but I wouldn't be shocked to see her miss the Oscar nod. It opens up the Best Actress field; Weinstein should just go for it and push Rooney Mara in lead.

Edited December 7, 2015 by Dejana

[raezen]

If the Oscars decide that Mara and Vikander are leads I'd much rather see them get nominated then Lawrence again.

[SallyAlbright]

I'm quite surprised at many of the poor reviews for Joy; I can't stand DOR, but typically the critics gush all over his work. Lawrence no longer seems like an absolute lock, especially if Vikander and Mara get moved to leading. IMO, Vikander definitely should be- she is more of a lead than Felicity Jones was last year. 

[SeanC]

I wonder if Alicia Vikander will focus her campaign on Ex Machina rather than The Danish Girl. She was actually nominated for both roles here, and won for Machina. 

While actors can supplement a campaign, they're generally run by the studios, so unless Universal/the Ex Machina people are interested in really mounting a campaign for her, that probably wouldn't happen.

Edited December 7, 2015 by SeanC

[Ruby25]

I think Rooney Mara could benefit tremendously from Lawrence possibly falling out- Weinstein should seize the moment.

[AimingforYoko]

I think Rooney Mara could benefit tremendously from Lawrence possibly falling out- Weinstein should seize the moment.

Then what do they do with Cate Blanchett? Pitting two stars from the same movie against each other? Does that ever work?

[Ruby25]

Well no, I was thinking they could both get in. That did use to happen actually. It's been a long time since the last movie where both actresses were nominated in lead (Thelma and Louise), and I think they stopped doing it because they thought it was decreasing the odds for one of them winning. But it definitely used to occur- Debra Winger and Shirley MacLaine were both nominated in Lead for Terms of Endearment, for example.

 

Unless they're really trying to get Rooney Mara the win by putting her in supporting, but people really do think she's a co-lead in this case, so he ought to try to get them both in.

[raezen]

At the end of the day it's still a 1 in 5 shot anyway.

I am really surprised by the not great reviews for Joy. It's the only DOR film on Rotten Tomatoes coming up as Rotten other than Nailed.

Edited December 8, 2015 by raezen

[Dejana]

Wikipedia has so many Oscar lists. Here's the one for movies with multiple nominations in the same category:

 

Best Actress:

 

Geena Davis and Susan Sarandon, Thelma & Louise (1991)

Shirley MacLaine and Debra Winger, Terms of Endearment (1983)

Anne Bancroft and Shirley MacLaine, The Turning Point (1977)

Katharine Hepburn and Elizabeth Taylor, Suddenly Last Summer (1959)

Anne Baxter and Bette Davis, All About Eve (1950)

 

Best Actor:

 

F. Murray Abraham and  Tom Hulce, Amadeus (1984)

Tom Courtenay and Albert Finney, The Dresser (1983)

Peter Finch and William Holden, Network (1976)

Michael Caine and Laurence Olivier, Sleuth (1972)

Dustin Hoffman and Jon Voight, Midnight Cowboy (1969)

Richard Burton and Peter O'Toole, Beckett (1964)

Maximillian Schell and Spencer Tracy, Judgement at Nuremberg (1962)

Tony Curtis and Sidney Poitier, The Defiant Ones (1958)

James Dean and Rock Hudson, Giant (1956)

Montgomery Clift and Burt Lancaster, From Here to Eternity (1953)

Bing Crosby and Barry Fitzgerald*, Going My Way (1944)

Clark Gable, Charles Laughton and Franchot Tone, Mutiny on the Bounty** (1935)

 

 

*Barry Fitzgerald managed to be nominated and in win in Best Supporting Actor for the same performance, which isn't allowed anymore.

 

**The last year before the Best Supporting Actor award existed.

 

 

Now, a great deal of elaborate logic is trotted out to explain why a movie romance or rivalry doesn't have two leads, but a leading and supporting player. Sure, the supporting star is the first and last person on screen and narrates the whole thing, but he's the more passive character who serves as a conduit to the more magnetic lead, or the supporting actress dies ten minutes before the end and therefore has less screen time. Not because the lead star is more famous, that other guy is too new, or it's our best chance for two nominations, no sirree, definitely not that.

Edited December 8, 2015 by Dejana

[SallyAlbright]

Though I genuinely do think Mara and Vikander are playing leading roles (and wonderfully, at that), I am also rooting to get them out of Supporting so that maybe Rachel McAdams could sneak in there for a nomination. 

[methodwriter85]

I don't think Soairse

 

I think Saoirse Ronan is looking really strong for the win right now. Brooklyn is making money and is apparently beloved by the Academy (according to screening reports), is bound to come in with more nominations than Room, and is for a sure a BP nom. And even critics can't resist her (it says more to me that she was the runner-up in all three critics groups today than it does who won- they saw that she won NYFCC the other day and wanted to pick someone else, but still couldn't resist having her in second).

 

And she won the British Independent Film Award for Best Actress today, over Charlotte Rampling (who was chosen by LA and Boston), which means she's going to have support in the UK for sure and will probably be favored to win the BAFTA. If she wins the BAFTA and the Globe? I think she's winning the Oscar. Even if she doesn't take SAG (but she could very well take that one too).

 

I don't know if she'll get that, but just the fact that this little 10 million indie movie is getting all this attention AND has actually made its production budget back is pretty amazing, and very cool.

 

I'd love it if she got the win, though. It's not a typical Oscar role- it's pretty quiet and understated, but very well-done regardless. Still, if anything, I think it's probably going to be Rooney Mara because Lesbian.

[raezen]

I guess one place where reviews don't seem to make a difference is at the Gold Derby. They have Joy ranked as #2 in the odds for the SAG best picture.

http://www.goldderby.com/news/11111/sag-awards-spotlight-joy-steve-jobs-revenant-hateful-eight-791352846.html

Edited December 8, 2015 by raezen

[SeanC]

Best Ensemble, which, given how many stars it has and the past reception of Russell's films, isn't a bad bet.  In any event, their ratings are cumulative over a long period.

[absnow54]

SAG Nominations. Looks like Joy is not a contender, because with such a strong ensemble, this is the award that would have shown them the most love. Although, apparently they were late on releasing screeners of the film (which may or many not also explain The Hateful Eight snub.) 

Edited December 9, 2015 by absnow54

[DollEyes]

Seeing Straight Outta Compton get an "Outstanding Cast, Motion Picture" nomination is a very pleasant surprise.

[SeanC]

Late screeners always muddies the water.

After several years where many categories at SAG and the Oscars had near or total overlap, I'm thinking that's unlikely to be the case this year.

Creed really only started to gather momentum in the last two weeks or so, so I would guess that Stallone missed a nomination for that reason.

Also, SAG sure loves Helen Mirren.

Good boost for Idris Elba's campaign.

[AshleyN]

So, in a rare year in which we actually have multiple female-driven films in the awards conversation, I count a total of 6 women among the 38 actors nominated in the ensemble category. Oh Hollywood, you never change, do you?

 

That being said, I would not have guessed that Rachel McAdams would be the only Spotlight actor to get an individual nomination. I liked her a lot in it but Keaton and Ruffalo seemed to be the more likely nominees from that movie.

[vb68]

I certainly didn't see Helen Mirren taking two individual spots in the film categories.  That's a head scratcher  for me.  I  don't even recall her role as Hedda Hopper in Trumbo getting much ink at all.  

 

I can see Jacob Tremblay taking that supporting actor category. It's probably between him and Mark Rylance.  I think it's a big boost to Jacob's chances at an Oscar nomination.

Edited December 9, 2015 by vb68

[Rick Kitchen]

Sarah Silverman?  Whu?

[SeanC]

My thoughts on the SAG categories, in terms of competitors for other awards:

 

Actor - I couldn't rule out any of these people getting nominated, though DiCaprio is the only one of them who is in a film that feels like it has any momentum right now.

 

Actress - This is the sharpest divide:  Blanchett, Larson and Ronan I consider virtual locks, while Silverman and Mirren are no-hopers.

 

Supporting Actor - Rylance is definitely in (which, as I've said before, I find a bit odd, but whatever; the people and critics have spoken), and I could see Elba and maybe Tremblay making a race of it.  Bale and especially Shannon seem much less likely.

 

Supporting Actress - other than Mirren (again), I could see everybody in this category getting nominated, though Winslet is, like Fassbender, in a film that has felt like it's flagging badly.

[SallyAlbright]

I am liking the SAG nominations overall, though I still hope to see The Martian get in for the Oscars and I too was surprised by Mirren and Silverman. However, I am thrilled that Rachel McAdams got in for supporting (though I hope Keaton/Ruffalo still get noms). The reviews for Joy aren't going to do it any favors, so while I think Lawrence will probably get one of the slots for the Golden Globes (especially if they consider it a comedy), I think she will miss out on anything else. Spotlight still looks like the frontrunner for Best Picture, IMO. 

[absnow54]

Golden Globe Nominees are out. I don't think there are any big surprises on the movie side of things, except maybe that Mad Max made it into the drama and directing categories. Boo for Charlize Theron though, with Rooney Mara and Alicia Vikander competing in lead actress for this show, there wasn't much room.

[SeanC]

The Spotlight people have got to be worried about Keaton/Ruffalo vote-splitting at this point, after missing with both SAG and the HFPA.

[galax-arena]

Category fraud annoys me to no end, so while I liked Carol and want to see it win a bunch of awards, I'm glad Rooney got placed in the Leading Actress category where she belongs instead of the Supporting Actress position she was angling for.

 

And I really, really want See You Again to win Best Song.

[Ohwell]

I saw The Martian and I didn't think it was a musical or comedy, yet it was nominated in that category for the GGs.  I'm confused.

[Dejana]

I saw The Martian and I didn't think it was a musical or comedy, yet it was nominated in that category for the GGs. I'm confused.

Apparently, it came down to one vote, whether it would be allowed in comedy or drama (similar to how the HFPA rejected the bids of Mara and Vikander as supporting actresses). Angling for the Musical/Comedy category boosts the odds for nominations here, but it's a far more defensible classification for The Martian than several M/C nominees within the last decade.

Edited December 10, 2015 by Dejana

[blixie]

 

it's a far more defensible classification for The Martian than several M/C nominees within the last decade.

I agree that movie is definitely "light", and has a lot of humor, and my biggest problem with it was exactly that, tonally it wasn't willing to make you actually worry about Mark, he's the most cheerful man abandoned to his death ever, and there was never any stakes for me in if he would make it, it had the same dramatic tension as a more impressively mounted episode of Lost in Space, so yeah I think Comedy/Musical fits.

 

Joy seems more questionable given that marketing is trying to bump up the drama of Mop Lady.

[Ohwell]

While there were moments of lightness and humor, I still don't view it as a musical or comedy.  But then I have to remember that this is the Golden Globes, which I've never taken seriously anyway.  

 

Hell, nowadays, I don't even take the Oscars seriously anymore. 

[vb68]

Definitely worried about The Spotlight actors.

[Rick Kitchen]

 

And I really, really want See You Again to win Best Song.

 

It had *better* win!

[Ruby25]

Well, Iooks like I may have jumped the gun on Saoirse pulling away for Best Actress! That was always predicated on Brooklyn being loved overall, but apparently not by the HFPA, since Room got Best Picture AND Best Screenplay nods, while Brooklyn did not. That makes Brie the undoubted frontrunner for the Globe now, while I had thought Saoirse would take that easily. But I really thought the HFPA was going to love Brooklyn a lot more, so that's a surprise.

 

I guess we're going to have to wait for the guild nominations to come in to see how loved Brooklyn really is in the industry. If Room ends up a BP nominee and Brooklyn doesn't, it's Brie's to lose.

[AshleyN]

The Spotlight people have got to be worried about Keaton/Ruffalo vote-splitting at this point, after missing with both SAG and the HFPA.

I'm wondering at this point if the vote splitting goes beyond just those two -- could Liev Schreiber or Stanley Tucci be siphoning off support too?  Both were terrific IMO, even if their roles weren't as big as Ruffalo or Keaton. I've actually seen a few people saying they thought Schreiber was best in show, while Tucci probably had the most sympathetic character in the movie. Either way, I would not have predicted that Spotlight would have exactly one individual acting nomination from the SAGs and Globes combined.

 

On another note, given that we were talking earlier about Warner Bros and their campaigning priorities, at this point they have to be putting all of their muscle behind Mad Max right? Now that it's been legitimized as a contender not just by the critics, but the Globes too, it seems like it's clearly their best shot at Picture/Director nominations. There really seems to be a ton of passion for it, which is especially important when it comes to the Oscars and their preferential ballots. And having seen Creed the other day, it remains a shame that they didn't seem to realize what they had with it until it was likely too late to make a major impact on the race, beyond a possible nomination for Stallone.

Edited December 12, 2015 by AshleyN

[AshleyN]

Critics Choice Nominations

 

One of the Spotlight men finally showed up, and it's Mark Ruffalo (who I generally love, but was probably my fourth favourite supporting actor in the movie).

 

On the other hand, Charlize! It's about time the Mad Max lovefest extended to her performance.

Edited December 14, 2015 by AshleyN

[blixie]

Plus someone finally gave Sicario some love, I'm honestly surprised by how little Awards/Best of talk it's getting, it's absolutely the best movie I saw this year after MM:FR.

Edited December 14, 2015 by blixie

[SeanC]

Idris Elba misses his first semi-notable award nomination.  He's looking like the best shot for non-white representation at this juncture (Michael B. Jordan, at present, seems like he's probably just outside the main pack in his category; if Creed keeps momentum and depending on how the other campaigns do, I suppose it could still happen; and while some were talking about Samuel L. Jackson in The Hateful Eight, it seems like Jennifer Jason Leigh is getting virtually all the heat for that film)

[Dejana]

Academy Voters Reveal Their Favorites:

 

Just when it looked as if the most wide-open Oscar race in years couldn't become more unpredictable, J.J. Abrams' Star Wars: The Force Awakens premiered Dec. 14 and was met with enthusiastic reactions from Academy members and early critics ("The Force is back. Big time," wrote THR's Todd McCarthy). Many of them grew up on George Lucas' first trilogy and had braced themselves to be disappointed by the Disney relaunch, as they were with Lucas' own prequel films. But their reactions suggest Force Awakens could become the franchise's first installment since the 1977 original to land not only below-the-line nominations but also a nom for best picture.

 

With no one film dominating the race and the different groups being "all over the place", there's heavy campaigning behind the scenes:
 

"I have never been so assaulted by screenings and events and screeners," sighs Anne Goursaud, a voter in the Academy's film editing branch. "This is the first year I've gotten four copies of some movies — they keep coming, and it's really annoying. If I get another copy of Carol or The Danish Girl, I'm going lose it." Goursaud says she is partial to The Big Short, Spotlight, Trumbo and especially Straight Outta Compton, "which is probably my favorite so far — but nothing really knocked my socks off," she says. "I fell asleep watching Steve Jobs."

 

[Rick Kitchen]

The Academy has announced the ten semifinal candidates for the visual effects Oscar:

 

Ant-Man

Avengers: Age of Ultron
Ex Machina
Jurassic World
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Tomorrowland
The Walk
 

There will be a 10-minute showing of clips from each film on January 9 for all members of the Visual Effects branch.  After the showing, the members will vote for the top five, which will be announced as the five nominees.

[SeanC]

Mad Max, Star Wars and The Martian will definitely get in.  Unsure about the rest.  Ideally there's room for Ex Machina, which delivered very high quality stuff on a much lower budget than most of the competition.

[raezen]

Looks like people are pissed about the CC awards addition of Star Wars being added to the line up for best pic and are questioning there real mandate; awarding who the critics like or getting ratings.

http://variety.com/2015/film/in-contention/star-wars-critics-choice-awards-broadcast-film-critics-assn-1201666782/

[blixie]

Dude I love the BFCC because it's so entirely meaningless, and mostly about relative quality to commercial success, plus they are the most BUDGET of awards shows in an Airplane hanger and they let everyone get drunk, and the people who win are barely paying attention, it's one step up from The People's Choice. 

[raezen]

All true but if one has to go I vote for this one because I think people are starting to get serious award fatigue.

[vb68]

I'm betting Star Wars gets in for Best Picture just because they surely know it would gin up interest.  And that's fine with me.  

Edited December 23, 2015 by vb68

[Blergh]

Could "Force Awakens"  become  to these Awards what Pia Zadora was to the Golden Globes?

[vb68]

I still think Pia will always be in a league of her own on that score.

[Shannon L.]

I saw Concussion this morning wouldn't mind seeing some Oscar nominations for It.  I thought it was excellent.  For the most part, though, I'm feeling kind of "meh" about a lot of the movies this year.  A lot of them feel either too depressing or too slow.  I still want to see The Big Short, though and I'm on the fence about Trumbo and The Danish Girl. 

Edited December 29, 2015 by Shannon L.

[AshleyN]

National Society of Film Critics (aka the last of the big critics awards):

 

Best picture: Spotlight

Best actor: Michael B. Jordan, Creed

Best actress: Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years

Best supporting actor: Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies

Best supporting actress: Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria

Best director: Todd Haynes, Carol

Best screenplay: Josh Singer and Tom McCarthy, Spotlight

Best cinematography: Ed Lachman, Carol

Best foreign-language film: Timbuktu

Best non-fiction film: Amy

 

Mostly along the lines of what we've already seen, but it's nice to see Michael B. Jordan pick up something.

Edited January 4, 2016 by AshleyN