S30: Previews and Speculations

[blackwing]

I think Sierra probably goes first over the Rot.  She'd do well with the jury so they'd be smart to get rid of her.  Seems to indicate that Mike wins the first immunity challenge, otherwise everyone would have voted him out.

 

Hmm, Jeff said that the winner could be one of the most likeable winners of all time.  I know he said that before the show started airing, but I have a hard time believing that even he would find Carolyn likeable.  He saw footage and dealt with her at tribal.  No part of her comes across as warm and fuzzy and likeable.  She is very cold, calculating and unforgiving.

 

I'm hoping this means it's a Mike, Will and the Rot final three and that Mike easily wins.

 

Shirin's "Pretty Woman" reference?  I do see it as a line where she says "Big mistake."  But I also see her calling Will and the Rot out on the way they treat women.  She could equate Will with the Jason Alexander character, the one that tried to assault Julia Roberts.

[LadyChatts]

The waterslide looks like the same FIC in S27 so  . . .

 

I really want you to be right, just because I want people to realize this after the fact and call Jiffy and TPTB out for giving the final 4 away.  We know there will be a reward for the family visit, unless they're so afraid that Mount Saint Rodney will erupt if he loses so they just let everyone have time with their loved one.

 

Here's the screen grabs for what I assume is the first R/IC:

 

http://www.survivorfever.net/vc_s30/vc_s30_ep14_5_13/vc_s30_ep14_5_13_0017.jpg(this one is a final 5 because you can see the 5 tables in the back)

 

http://www.survivorfever.net/vc_s30/vc_s30_web_promo_ep14/vc_s30_web_promo_ep14_0030.jpg(Sierra is balancing something here, so I don't know if that ties into another challenge)

 

http://www.survivorfever.net/vc_s30/vc_s30_web_promo_ep14/vc_s30_web_promo_ep14_0035.jpg(the things at the end of Rodney's table look like the things Sierra was balancing).

 

I'm guessing reward, since Rodney looks far more intense and focused than I've seen him look all season.  I don't know that he'd be so concerned about immunity.

 

We know the water slide is one of the challenges (I wish they had that one every season; it's one of my all time favorites).

 

In regards to Jiffy's comments: well, he had no idea before this season started airing the polarizing reaction it was going to get.  So he may have assumed everyone would love Rodney for all I know.  He's certainly defied the odds, and a case can be made that he did have his head in the game and play somewhat decently.  I think once he made his alliance and got comfortable, he quit playing and was just content to ride the wave.  Since he seemed far more unlikable to everyone while out there than he does in real life, he probably feels pretty safe.  Carolyn it could be argued that she was target day 3 and lasted all the way until the end; what's not to love and root for there, Jeff might say to himself.  However, Mike seems way more a Jiffy winner that he'd go on about being iconic and likable and playing a great game. The only reason Mike is so likable is by default, for me anyway.

Edited May 18, 2015 by LadyChatts

[SomeTameGazelle]

There is a new promo though that's actually about this season:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oVnLLNqspM0

I hope it's not significant that in the trimmed down version I saw broadcast only Will, Rodney, and Carolyn were featured.

[kikaha]

In the preview peachmango posted above, u see Carolyn go down massive waterslide. That is the F4 IC. You also see Will and Mike at the same challenge, which means that it's Rod or Sierra gone.

 

The F5 IC is a different one with number dials.

 

The preview shows two challenges.  One has five tables, so is F5.  But how do you know if it's reward or immunity?  And how do you know the water slide is a) immunity, b) F4? 

 

Not saying you're wrong.  Just interested to hear how you can tell. 

[wonald]

The preview shows two challenges.  One has five tables, so is F5.  But how do you know if it's reward or immunity?  And how do you know the water slide is a) immunity, b) F4? 

 

Not saying you're wrong.  Just interested to hear how you can tell. 

 

I am not 100% certain if the Five Tables is RC or IC.

 

As for Waterslide, I am pretty sure there are only 4 people participating bc there is an aerial shot somewhere of just the 4 slides.

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

ETA: Press  photos have just been released.

 

Five Tables is F5 RC.

 

F5 IC is a blindfold maze.

 

Waterslide is F4 as I told you all.

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

ETA2: I believe Sierra is voted out F5.

Edited May 18, 2015 by wonald

[LadyChatts]

Wow so they really gave it away.  I wonder if that a slight or throwing us a bone to make people tune in because we know at least Mike and Carolyn are still in it.

 

I also think Sierra is gone at the final 5, under these circumstances.  I can't see them keeping her around over Rodney.  I wonder if it'll be a blindside or if she'll realize it's coming.  I just want to know how Mike and Carolyn make it through to the final 4.

 

ETA: In one of the voice overs, we hear Will say "Did I lie?  Yes.  Did I backstab?  Yes."; Rodney says "I built relationships. I dominated socially" (at least you have that going for you-I wonder if Jeff will play back Rodney's quote about being filet mignon and asking if he really was a steak-um since he couldn't win a challenge to save his life); and then Carolyn says "I will fight tooth and nail.  This is do or die".  That's from this promo:

 

http://survivorfever.net/vc_s30_web_promo_ep14.html

 

Mike and Sierra each have a sound bite, but the 3 above sound more end game specific.  If Mike makes the final 4, but loses that last IC, and it's Rodney/Carolyn/Will, I can't see them keeping Mike around.  Will's a lock for the final 3, and I believe Shirin giving away her FTC speech on Pretty Woman confirmed that.  He seemed to be her issue out there, not Rodney.  I wonder if Will will sit there and take it or tell her to zip it and sit down, especially if he's not getting her vote anyway.  He's already looked like an ass, what's one more outburst.

Edited May 18, 2015 by LadyChatts

[kikaha]

wonald, thanks and good catch.  CBS really fumbled, spoiling that much of the finale. 

 

LC: maybe (?!) Mike or Carolyn finds an idol. 

[blackwing]

Laughing very hard at the Rot saying that he "dominated socially".  Uh, no.  Unless his idea of dominating socially is being a loud and aggressive bully.  Particularly his almost pathetic way of begging people to give him their reward because "it's my damn birthday" and then getting all angry when they didn't do it.

[LadyChatts]

I'm laughing more at the loose lips and loose edits that is giving stuff away this season.  Next season will probably be hard to keep under wraps because of it being an AS edition, but I wonder if they will clamp down more for the next spring edition.

[Special K]

Honestly, it seems like a theme of this season is "self-delusion."

[pennben]

 

Wow so they really gave it away.  I wonder if that a slight or throwing us a bone to make people tune in because we know at least Mike and Carolyn are still in it.

 

Oh, it has to be throwing us a bone.  God, I keep going back to Rodney is going to win this.  It's not the worst thing in the world, he did have a plan, but wow, it would be disappointing.

[cooker30]

Oh, it has to be throwing us a bone. God, I keep going back to Rodney is going to win this. It's not the worst thing in the world, he did have a plan, but wow, it would be disappointing.

With 8 on the jury the winner only has to get 4 votes if it's 4-3-1 or 4-2-2. What 4 votes could rodney get especially if he is with mike or carokyn? I think he gets dan's vote (and i suppose will's if will is in the jury) but i'm hard pressed to come up with who else would vote for rodney.

[Wings]

Jenn said in an interview that she was surprised not to see Rodney on the vote list for next season.  If he won I doubt she would have said that.  I read that in this thread and did not see the interview.   And would Jeff tag him as a possible well liked winner?  

[LadyChatts]

Jenn said in an interview that she was surprised not to see Rodney on the vote list for next season.  If he won I doubt she would have said that.  I read that in this thread and did not see the interview.   And would Jeff tag him as a possible well liked winner?  

 

Knowing Jeff, yes lol  I guess Shirin made a similar remark about Rodney not being on the cast for next season, either.  I'm with those who say Rodney's only chance is to be with Will and Sierra.  It's possible, between the 3 NC + Shirin, plus Dan and Tyler, he could swing enough votes for a win.  I don't know about Carolyn or Mike and who they would vote for.  In a scenario where either Carolyn and/or Mike is in the final 3, unless editing completely dropped the ball, I can't see how either of them loses no matter who they are up against.  Will would probably get a vote from Dan.  Tyler seems defensive of him outside of the game and didn't seem to have any qualms with him in it, either, so he may throw him a vote as well.

[pennben]

 

With 8 on the jury the winner only has to get 4 votes if it's 4-3-1 or 4-2-2. What 4 votes could rodney get especially if he is with mike or carokyn? I think he gets dan's vote (and i suppose will's if will is in the jury) but i'm hard pressed to come up with who else would vote for rodney.

 

I think it is a longshot, but I aways brace myself to expect the worst:).  His best shot (based on what we know about Mike/Carolyn/Will being in final four) would be Rodney/Carolyn/Will.  The girls aren't enamored with Carolyn, the guys might give a respect vote to him as the last man standing who played the game, I don't see Will getting any votes in any scenario in this trio.

 

And why I still worry even though some have interviewed that they were surprised that Rodney wasn't asked back, is that they could be putting up a smokescreen so we don't think Rodney wins. 

 

If he did win, he'd need a great edit for the next episode because absolutely nothing so far supports his winning.

Edited May 19, 2015 by pennben

[kikaha]

Since this is the thread for speculating:  Mike makes F3, and wins.  The NC3 + Shirin vote for him.  So does Tyler, which is enough for the win.  Sierra also votes for Mike, giving him at least 6.  If Carolyn is on the jury, she votes for Mike.  If Will is on the jury, no idea.  If Rodney is on the jury, he votes for Mike as well.  Dan votes for anyone except Mike. 

 

So my guess is Mike wins with six or seven votes. 

[LadyChatts]

Since this is the thread for speculating:  Mike makes F3, and wins.  The NC3 + Shirin vote for him.  So does Tyler, which is enough for the win.  Sierra also votes for Mike, giving him at least 6.  If Carolyn is on the jury, she votes for Mike.  If Will is on the jury, no idea.  If Rodney is on the jury, he votes for Mike as well.  Dan votes for anyone except Mike. 

 

So my guess is Mike wins with six or seven votes. 

 

Will probably wouldn't vote for Mike unless he was in a final 3 with Carolyn and Sierra-and even then, Will might vote for one of the two ladies, since he was aligned with Carolyn and Sierra didn't really do anything to him (yet) that might piss him off.  Rodney would get his vote.  Rodney would likely get votes from Dan and Will, if both are on the jury.  I'd be curious in a final 3 of Rodney/Sierra/Carolyn who would pull the 3 NC + Shirin votes.  None of them seem to really like those 3, judging from the Ponderosa vids, and both Jenn and Joe had said they wanted to vote for whoever played the overall best game.  I think that eliminates Sierra.  Between Rodney and Carolyn?  Those two seem to have their games spoken highly of in post boot interviews, although Rodney was underestimated so they may not have realized what was going on behind the scenes (does anyone this season though?)

 

Still going for a Mike or Carolyn victory.

Edited May 19, 2015 by LadyChatts

[Alapaki]

In the preview peachmango posted above, u see Carolyn go down massive waterslide. That is the F4 IC. You also see Will and Mike at the same challenge, which means that it's Rod or Sierra gone.

The F5 IC is a different one with number dials.

 

 

I'm fascinated at the thought process that would prompt them to vote out Sierra ahead of Mike or Carolyn.  And, barring another double-immunity-necklace (one for guys, one for women) challenge, or one of them finding Carolyn's possibly re-hidden HII, either Mike or Carolyn will not have immunity at F5. 

[pennben]

Mike wins at immunity at 5 and it never crosses Rodney/Will's mind that a woman could beat them.  They buy in when Carolyn tells them they need her to get Mike out?

[LadyChatts]

All I can think of is either Mike or Carolyn does something in front of the jury that totally pisses them off, so Rodney and Will think they will be better off keeping them around since they might have just cost themselves votes.  Or, Mike/Carolyn raises the convincing argument that Sierra has a closer bond with the NC + Shirin, and especially Carolyn could give the argument she wasn't close with Shirin, sold out her and Max, and that the NC don't like her so she probably isn't guaranteed their votes.  Rodney and Will might buy that. 

[Nutjob]

They might honestly think no one likes Mike enough to vote for him, and keep him around. Yeah, he flubbed the auction, but Rodney/Will would totally discount the fact that Mike stood up for both Shirin and Sierra against Dan and Rodney, and will conveniently forget that he was aligned with both Joe and Jenn. It wouldn't surprise me if they keep Mike because they think he's their goat.

[blackwing]

I tend to agree.  They think Mike is great at challenges and want him out.  But I don't think they think he will get many votes if he makes it to the end.  As Dan has demonstrated in his delusional interviews, they all viewed Mike as the villain.  Dan thought that he himself, the Rot and Will (as God is my witness!) were the heroes.  Dan thought that everyone intensely disliked Mike because of the food auction incident.

 

I think he's wrong.  I think every single person sitting there right now on the jury (except for Dan of course) would vote for Mike in a heartbeat.  Or make that a "hahtbeat".  But I think the Rot is too stupid to realise that, and I could easily see a scenario at Final 4 where he and Will are deciding whether to get rid of Mike or Carolyn, and the Rot picks Carolyn because he thinks that 1) she's a wimmen and the wimmen on the jury will vote for another wimmen, and 2) she didn't give him her reward that she promised him on his damn birthday.

Edited May 19, 2015 by blackwing

[Special K]

 As Dan has demonstrated in his delusional interviews, they all viewed Mike as the villain. 

 

This is the same "all" who hated Shirin.

[LadyChatts]

Mike would definitely have the 3 NC + Shirin.  He stood up for Shirin, and all of the NC had really good things to say about him in their post boot interviews.  Only Jenn and Shirin were there for the auction, but they would never hold that against him.  Jenn would likely call it good strategy, and she was checked out by then anyway.  Mike is Shirin's hero.  Considering no one else seemed to get along with those 4 as well as Mike, they are absolute idiots to think they wouldn't vote for him.  I doubt Dan will, and he may not vote for Carolyn since he takes getting votes so personal.  And Carolyn's idol play ruined his big moment with his advantage.  Sierra I'm iffy on, but I really can't see her voting for Will or Rodney.

[blackwing]

Sierra has played very poorly.  She had chances to make big moves (rejoin with Mike several episodes ago, join with Carolyn and Mike last episode) and she hasn't.  She seemed content to Monica Culpepper her way to the finals along with two other members of her alliance where I suppose her schtick would be that she's "loyal".  She is the least offensive of the four in her alliance because she doesn't do anything.  

 

I have absolutely no idea what she is thinking, and I don't know who she would vote for.  I do think she would vote for either the Rot or Will.  If she doesn't show that she can be true to her alliance then it makes her look like an even worse player than she was.  Then again, with her, who knows.  She will probably have Left Caterpillar Eyebrow consult with Right Caterpillar Eyebrow  and they can hug it out.  Just a little bit more growth and they could almost touch.

[Lantern7]

I'm thinking Mike wins, getting all but one vote (Dan) in beating Rodney and Will. I also figure Probst will try and bury the bullying behavior of the beta males, especially with Shirin is concerned.

[pennben]

 

I have absolutely no idea what she is thinking, and I don't know who she would vote for.  I do think she would vote for either the Rot or Will.  If she doesn't show that she can be true to her alliance then it makes her look like an even worse player than she was.

 

I disagree with that, she only stuck with Rodney/Dan/Will because she thought that they were beatable/awful.  To have her vote for one of those remaining would seem contrary to what little we have seen of her.

Edited May 19, 2015 by pennben

[blackwing]

I'm not looking forward to the reunion.  I hope it's only an hour, and that it hasn't been extended because of this Second Chance reveal.  They could easily keep it to an hour and still have 15 minutes for the Second Chance stuff.  Jeff can do his usual questions of the top 3, question for his mancrush (Joe), ignore everyone else.  They just need to cut out the horribly uninteresting filler.  I don't need to be introduced to some 9 year old kid who wrote to Jeff and says his third cousin has leukemia and at school he raised money for his cousin by having a Survivor viewing party fundraiser in the school gym.  I don't need to hear from Cochran.  I don't need to hear from Dan's wife about how he's "really not like that".

 

For the Second Chance announcement, I want all 32 people on stage and I want Jeff to call out the names and have them go to the front of the stage, Miss America style, while the remaining people stand there and clap politely while mentally calculating how many spots are left and doing their best to act like they aren't desperate to hear their name next.  And I want a shot of the 6 men and 6 women who didn't get picked, and I want Jeff to say "Losers, I've got nothin for ya.  Grab your things and go home."

Edited May 19, 2015 by blackwing

[Special K]

I don't need to be introduced to some 9 year old kid who wrote to Jeff and says his third cousin has leukemia and at school he raised money for his cousin by having a Survivor viewing party fundraiser in the school gym.  I don't need to hear from Cochran.  I don't need to hear from Dan's wife about how he's "really not like that".

 

From your lips to God's ears.

[Lantern7]

I expect "live" cut-ins during the episode. Between that, the finale taking up four days and S31, we might have the shortest reunion ever.

[Alapaki]

They might honestly think no one likes Mike enough to vote for him, and keep him around. Yeah, he flubbed the auction, but Rodney/Will would totally discount the fact that Mike stood up for both Shirin and Sierra against Dan and Rodney, and will conveniently forget that he was aligned with both Joe and Jenn. It wouldn't surprise me if they keep Mike because they think he's their goat.

 

 

I could completely see some of these players being capable of thinking that.  But, then, how to explain their burning desire to vote him out so far?

 

I get that Mike winning immunity forces the alliances to start cannibalizing themselves earlier than they might otherwise need to.  But since they're all double-dealing anyway, that would have to happen eventually.  And I'd think that the desire to keep a goat (if that's how they truly view Mike) would outweigh that risk.

 

I disagree with that, she [sierra] only stuck with Rodney/Dan/Will because she thought that they were beatable/awful.  To have her vote for one of those remaining would seem contrary to what little we have seen of her.

 

 

Also, I may be misremembering, but as I recall there has not been a point at which Sierra flipping would have been guaranteed to turn the numbers against the alliance she was flipping out of.  So she would've burned her alliance to no effect.

 

Frankly, I think that ever since Carolyn, Tyler and Will decided to side with the Blue Collars and Shirin decided to go with the No Collars at the first post-merge TC, there really hasn't been a TC at which a player has had both an obvious incentive and the practical ability to flip alliances.

 

The only possible exception would be Dan and Sierra not flipping at the TC right after the auction.  But Mike shit the bed so hard at the auction, I think he made that a much more risky, difficult decision than it should have been.

[kstar821]

Blackwing -  Yes x1000 to your entire post!!! :)

[LadyChatts]

blackwing, I like that idea.  I do hope Jeff talks to the "losers", and seriously hope they don't hold back.  Especially if Jeff quotes the number of votes received and they call it out as being bogus.  It'd be great if they called out individual Survivors and some of their campaign methods.

 

In thinking about, I actually wonder if Jeff will spend that much time addressing the drama this season.  He obviously can't avoid talking about it, and knowing Jeff is probably foaming at the mouth to get everyone together.  But it's dominated so much of this season, to the point where castoffs and even Jeff said that between the drama and the big personalities, it took away from the alleged great game play (which I still believe is a myth in their minds) this season.  So I can see him addressing it and moving on.  All I can picture is something similar to the AS spat between Tom, Lex, and Rob, with Richard basically having to be shushed by Jeff because he kept butting in with his two cents, and then Jerri trying to say they are all human beings before being booed offstage.  So substitute Dan, Will, and Shirin in that equation, and throw in Max who will probably not hold back, even though he's really insignificant.  But I can see him continually drawing attention to himself, about the game, despite being responsible for his own demise and going out 5th.  There were other things that happened this season that I believe Jeff will want to talk about.

[BigRedCheese]

They never addressed the Rich and Sue Hawk controversy at the reunion, I would prefer to see Dan ignored, and as negative as he's been toward Jeff and CBS, I could see it happening.

[peachmangosteen]

I think they'll address it in some way because Probst point-blank said he would. But then this guy doesn't seem to know what 'jumping the shark' or 'Shakespearean' or 'likable' means, so he might just be talking out of his ass.

[pennben]

Okay, after watching this preview, how in the holy hell could anyone other than Mike or Carolyn win?  There just has to be a point where the editing cannot fix the stupid of the rest remaining/the edit they have been giving Mike (and more recently Carolyn)..we're not seeing them as heroes, nor are we seeing Mike as the enemy. Their flaw is that the game has been, for awhile, getting Mike out was their goal, not winning survivor.

 

I still fear something bad happening, because that is my nature, but holy hell.

 

ETA:  God, they even showed a creature burying it's head in the sand!

Edited May 19, 2015 by pennben

[LadyChatts]

I hope Mike kicks their asses.  Seriously, this is the worst group of finalists ever.  And that is saying something.  Carolyn's group targets her, but who cares!  She still loves them.  Mike blindsided Rodney over Joaquin, and he talked like he was going to throw some curves into the game.  But he didn't, he just talked big.  So did Sierra.  Most worthless bunch ever.  And looking at the other 13 voted out, and what might have been.  Mike winning is the only acceptable outcome.  I don't even want Carolyn anymore.  I keep wondering about the editing: did the editors seriously underestimate how the viewers were going to perceive this group and thought this was rootable editing, or did they secretly hate this cast and wanted to make them look like as big of idiots as possible.

 

And I really wish Jeff would bring up how these guys fancied themselves heroes, especially when Will and Sierra mainly rode coattails.  Will did flip and likely bought himself time, but beyond that, what have they done other than just bask in everyone else's thunder.  So given the edit they got, compared to who they thought were so-called "villains", what do they think now?  Maybe I'll join twitter just to tweet Jeff to ask that at the reunion.

 

ETA: I'm with you pennben.  I'm getting really worried.  I want Mike to win, mainly to stick it to all of them.  I can't even imagine the gloating back at the beach if/when they get him out.  But I guess it's some small satisfaction that he came out on top in the end.  Even if he doesn't win, he will be far more likable and called more deserving than the 4 yahoos left.  All the people that they must have perceived as villains are the biggest fan faves to emerge out of this miserable season.  Is it over yet?

Edited May 19, 2015 by LadyChatts

[ProfCrash]

What does Carolyn get by going back and bitching that they voted for her? All that gets her is Mike treatment. By acting cool, she keeps them talking to her and gives her room to work with Mike. She needs to turn one person if Mike wins immunity. If she goes back raging and bitching she draws the three together and has no room to work if Mike wins immunity. Better to suck it up.

[pennben]

I have no problem with how Carolyn played that.  I think she played them perfectly.  I think Mike did what he needed to do, Carolyn did as well.  And the rest of them will spend the next day or so trying to figure out how to get Mike out as a sole thought, then be surprised if he wins immunity again without thinking through anything before that. At least, that's what the edit is showing me at this point.

Edited May 20, 2015 by pennben

[Lantern7]

Given that the episode is going up against the final two episodes of Supernatural, is it weird that I'd want the prologue footage to be set to an abridged version of "Carry On My Wayward Son" by Kansas? Especially if Mike is the focus character. Just a weird thought I have.

[peachmangosteen]

 All the people that they must have perceived as villains are the biggest fan faves to emerge out of this miserable season.

 

I think this is why so many of them are so bitter in their post-show interviews. Most of them seemed to think Shirin (and Mike to a lesser extent) was going to be super hated by the audience and that they were going to be the heroic fan faves that everyone rooted for and they are just shocked to their core that the edit went with an entirely different story. I think in particular Dan and Tyler thought this way. It's hilarious to me. 

 

I can't reconcile how Carolyn and Mike are both going to survive to the F4. I mean, sure, Rodney, Will, and Sierra aren't the smartest/best players ever, but I can't believe any of them are dumb enough to not see that those two are the biggest threats. Well, maybe Rodney has enough arrogance to believe he can beat anyone and Will is just going along for the ride so he doesn't really care. And then Sierra has never had any say in any matter, so I assume for some asinine reason Rodney decides to boot Sierra instead of whomever among Carly/Mike doesn't win immunity.

[ProfCrash]

I can see Will and Rodney underestimating Carolyn's game. Rodney will see her as someone who flipped on her White Collar tribe and they have all bought into the idea that flippers cannot win. Rodney will also think that he can make the argument that he brought Tyler and Carolyn into a final four agreement so that the only reason that she is there is because of him. Rodney will think that she promised to give him rewards and she didn't so she is a liar. Rodney will take these three things and see him beating her.

 

I suspect that Carolyn had little interaction with Will and that Will is not clear on what she did behind the scenes. He will probably see her as someone who flipped, like he did, but that she was carried by Tyler and Rodney.

 

I suspect that Will and Rodney are counting in Carolyn not liking Shirin as hurting her with Shirin and the No Collars on the jury.

 

How they will both ignore her winning immunities and playing the idol, I have no clue. Actually, I can see them both saying that she didn't trust them and didn't tell her about the idol so she wasn't trustworthy and that she won't get votes.

 

I think that Sierra played a better social game then we have seen and that she is likely to go because she is liked by people on the jury.

[peachmangosteen]

You make good points. I have to imagine Mike wins F5 immunity though because there's really no way to explain them not voting out Mike.

 

I suspect that Carolyn had little interaction with Will and that Will is not clear on what she did behind the scenes.

 

I can't really discern how Carolyn's social game went. I remember a scene where someone said that Carolyn had Rodney and Will wrapped around her finger and I remember being surprised to hear that since I don't believe they ever showed Carolyn and Will even being in the same frame let alone actually speaking. I'm starting to think Carolyn got the shittiest edit. And it makes no sense at all to me since she seems to be someone who had a legitimate shot to win so they could've made the season more interesting by actually showing that. Plus, she's up for the Second Chances season so if she doesn't win I don't know why they didn't give her the same kind edit they gave Joe/Mike/Shirin.

Edited May 20, 2015 by peachmangosteen

[Alapaki]

ProfCrash, I can see a scenario that plays out the way you suggest, where Rodney votes against Sierra (assuming Mike wins F5 Immunity) and Will goes along with Rodney because . . . BOSCO!

 

I still think Mike would vote against Carolyn (unless he extracts a F3 promise from her [that he thinks he can trust] in case he loses F4 Immunity).  

 

I think Sierra would obviously be voting against Carolyn.

 

That would bring it all down to Carolyn's vote.  If Carolyn votes against Sierra (because of some potential jury-attraction that's been hidden from us viewers), then Sierra goes out at F5.

 

But based on what we've been shown, I think it's more likely for Carolyn to see Sierra as a coat-tail-rider and vote against Rodney.  Then it's a 2-2-1 tie between Sierra and Carolyn.  On the re-vote, at which only Rodney, Will and Mike could vote and can only vote for Carolyn or Sierra, I'd have to think Rodney turns on Carolyn for voting for him.

 

Ultimately I think your theory is the most logical, or perhaps least illogical for Sierra going out at F5.  But I still can't believe they'd actually leave Mike and/or Carolyn around if they have a chance to get rid of them at F5.

[ProfCrash]

I can't believe that they wouldn't vote out Carolyn but Will and Rodney are not the sharpest tools in the knives that need to be sharpened drawer. Then again, we have seen so little of Sierra's game that we don't know what she has been doing. Based on interviews, I would say that she had a strong social game and I could see where that would scare Will and Rodney.

 

Mike is going to vote Carolyn and Sierra would vote Carolyn.

[LadyChatts]

I think this is why so many of them are so bitter in their post-show interviews. Most of them seemed to think Shirin (and Mike to a lesser extent) was going to be super hated by the audience and that they were going to be the heroic fan faves that everyone rooted for and they are just shocked to their core that the edit went with an entirely different story. I think in particular Dan and Tyler thought this way. It's hilarious to me. 

 

I can't reconcile how Carolyn and Mike are both going to survive to the F4. I mean, sure, Rodney, Will, and Sierra aren't the smartest/best players ever, but I can't believe any of them are dumb enough to not see that those two are the biggest threats. Well, maybe Rodney has enough arrogance to believe he can beat anyone and Will is just going along for the ride so he doesn't really care. And then Sierra has never had any say in any matter, so I assume for some asinine reason Rodney decides to boot Sierra instead of whomever among Carly/Mike doesn't win immunity.

 

It's the story that keeps getting better, that these people thought they were going to be perceived as the next Ruperts and Boston Robs, only to be viewed as anything but.  It literally has been 'say one thing, in the next clip the opposite happens'.  Dan saying he would never win at a physical challenge but could kill at a puzzle, yet couldn't get 'outwit, outplay, outlast' (twice!), or Rodney talking about being filet mignon, but he really hasn't done a lot of pulling the strings like Rob or Tony, and he wouldn't win a challenge even if Jeff gave him a 30 minute head start.  I especially loved Tyler being asked what his thoughts were on the negative reaction to this season, and he brought up what Jeff said to them at a TC once (how much he loved the cast and wanted to bring them all back to play again).  He mentioned how he had friends that said they were FF through parts of the show because they didn't consider it good, family entertainment.  Yep, if anyone was deserving of having so much pre-show hype associated with their season, only for it to go completely wrong, I have to say, I'm glad its this crew.  I am very curious if Jeff will be asked for his final thoughts and what he said at the start of the season, being what he thought was the best ever.

 

In regards to Mike and Carolyn, I posted something in the spoiler thread (and it is not a spoiler, just a theory based on one of the promo pics of Jiffy), but is it possible someone gets medevaced at the final 5?  There was a photo of Jeff where it looks like he's crouched down, with a sort of serious look on his face.  We don't see that expression very often, but it made me wonder if someone got injured in the final 5 challenge and had to be taken out.  That's the only logical explanation I would have for Carolyn and Mike to survive.  Unless there's an idol back in play.  Both Jenn and Shirin claimed they were surprised Rodney wasn't asked back for S31, so I had wondered if maybe he gets removed for medical reasons and they thought he'd be given a second shot.

Edited May 20, 2015 by LadyChatts

[cooker30]

I think it's going to be will that flips to mike snd carolyn. My msin reason for that is the scene of them on rewatd ladt week. The whole bit of them talking about being f3 seemed so out of place to me. The discussion went no where so why show it? I really believe the included it because that is what ends up happening.

So why would will flip? I think it's because he actually believed he could win against those 2. The main thing to remember is that our perception of the edited episodes is much different from the players when they're in the game.

I can see will thinking that he only needs 4 votes to win if one of mike or carolyn gets at lesst one vote. He would be counting on getting dan's vote and woukd probsbly think he would get rodney's even if he flipped. Also at that point he would've thought everyone hated shirin ss much ss he did so his attack on her would actually be a selling point. I can see him trying to make a "no collar strong!" appesl to hsli, jenn and joe even though he flipped on them too. If he was able to get them tgen he would have 5 votes and win.

We know that isn't going to happen but i honestly believe will would not have at that point. So yeah, tgat's the prediction i am going with. I'm also not sure thst sierra is going before rodney. Her efit would fit eith her going out in fifth place but there is still the possibility that will would want rodney out first so he'd have ss much cooling off time as posdible before FTC. I don't have a prediction for that one.

I am finfing myself interested in seeing how it all plsys out even though i am more than ready for the season to be over. I am judt hoping mike csn win this thing so it's not a complete waste of my time:)

[LadyChatts]

I wonder if Mike brings up to Sierra what Will told him during that reward-the he already had a final 3 with Carolyn.  Where does Sierra think she stands with the 4?  So that may make her question if she's going out in 4th.  Granted, she and Mike would still need one more person to flip to their side to gain a majority.  If Mike wins immunity, Carolyn will be back on the outs (more than likely) unless she can give a convincing argument that they need her to defeat Mike in the last IC, and that she has no ties to anyone in the jury (didn't like the NC or Shirin, voted off her biggest ally).  If they can't vote for Mike, and if Sierra starts feeling more vulnerable than Carolyn, she may decide to flip and take her chances voting with Mike.  I don't know which poster said it, but it seems there's been more emphasis on just outlasting someone vs actually looking at your end game and if you were making the right moves.

 

I'm still thinking she goes 5th, Mike (if he loses immunity) 4th, and a final 3 of Carolyn/Will/Rodney.  However, I can also see a final 3 of Mike/Will/Rodney.  I will be very, very shocked if Will doesn't make it there.  Unless they all say they didn't think he was good enough for third and didn't care if he was the ultimate goat, he was too awful to be sitting at the end, I will continue to question the editing this season.  It would make no sense for them to get rid of Will.  He has zero chance of winning.  At most, he could get Dan's vote.

Edited May 20, 2015 by LadyChatts

[laurakaye]

At the reunion, I only want to hear from Jenn.  Probst will provide her a name from the cast, and she will quickly ad-lib a one-liner about how much they suck.  I don't even want to hear from the winner unless it's Mike, and only if he can speak in his non-Super-Dave voice (I know he can do it...every time he's used his "normal" voice on the show, I have had to do a double-take to figure out who's talking).  I want to see a clip of Tyler going through Dan's bag, a quick cut to Dan's entire face going red with rage, and just as he opens his mouth to bloviate, cut to commercial.  I would also like to have Ozzy and Malcolm in the audience, have Probst bring them onstage with Joe, and spend 10 minutes discussing who has the best hair.  Then give Joe his fan favorite $100,000 while Dan sits there stupified, unable to believe that the check is not going to him, and CUT.

Edited May 20, 2015 by laurakaye

[Alapaki]

It's the story that keeps getting better, that these people thought they were going to be perceived as the next Ruperts and Boston Robs, only to be viewed as anything but.

 

 

I agree that this dynamic is going on.  And it just further demonstrates how little common sense these folks have.  

 

First of all, you can't blame editing for things which we've heard come out of your own mouth.  Maybe your responding to some provocation.  But you have the choice of how to respond.  As an attorney, I never reduce anything to writing that I'm not afraid to be put in front of a Judge one day.  As a reality show contestant, you ought to know not to say anything that you can't live with on its own merits, assuming that what preceded or provoked it will be edited out.