S30: Previews and Speculations

[Wings]

As much as I would like to see something interesting next week I think Sierra is the one to go.  She is their only safe vote before eating each other. 

 

The following week if Mike wins II is when it will get interesting.  Mike is gone the minute he doesn't win II.   I cannot see him win this.  It could happen though.  If he does he is the icon. 

 

So say it gets down to:

 

Rodney

Dan

Carolyn

Tyler

 

Who is the icon?  Rodney, that is who.  Jeff loves the abrasive, shit for brains wins against all odds.  It does make for an interesting story when you think about it.  

[kikaha]

Next week Mike is safe.  Jenn said in her exit interview that she loved the last eleven days at Ponderosa, with people she loved, and they had a great party.  That should rule out Dan, Carolyn and Will -- and Mike's idol makes him safe.  Unless she wins the IC, Sierra seems to me the best bet to get booted next.

 

Several curve balls still out there: Carolyn's idol, Mike's idol, Dan's advantage.  Could get real interesting here in the home stretch, as the majority alliance starts cannibalizing itself. 

 

I wonder how this season would have gone without the collar theme?  i.e. same players, but randomly split into, say, two tribes.  Might have turned out real different.  Seems to me a number of players took on the roles of their collar.   They might have played quite differently without that.  

 

Finally, I think those early brash-sounding proclamations from the BCers -- that one of their own would win -- is probably true.   

[Lantern7]

I'm calling it now . .. Will and Dan will not apologize for their meanness towards Shirin at the Reunion, and Probst will sweep it under the rug as fast as possible. Shirin might be a fan, but she's not an alpha dog that Probst loves.

 

ETA: While I'm at it: I hope Shirin takes the bitter route on Day 39. I don't care if we have a Tyler/Carolyn/Sierra F3. I want to see her vent. And because she's a fan, she knows that she's got a high bar to jump over.

[ProfCrash]

Will won't apologize. Dan might but then he'll screw it up with a twitter or facebook post. There has been enough blow back Jeff cannot sweep it under the rug. Dalton Ross has had three columns were he has spent 20% of his column on the jackasses. Rob Has a Podcast has done special shows to cover it. It is far too big to be ignored.

[Wings]

 

I wonder how this season would have gone without the collar theme?  i.e. same players, but randomly split into, say, two tribes.  Might have turned out real different.  Seems to me a number of players took on the roles of their collar.   They might have played quite differently without that.

 

 Also what happened is they all viewed the NCs as less than and had an attitude that they were not pulling their weight in society.   Basically like the hippies were viewed by many in the 60s and 70s. The all looked down their noses and the NC did play up their free spirit position and would have hidden that part of them had the teams been randomly split.   Bad idea.  

[Lantern7]

ProfCrash . . . forgive my skepticism, but I feel that Probst would never throw guys he likes under the bus, even if the audience (in person and online) bay for their heads. He'll probably briefly touch on it, but he'd let a guy have the last word . . . like Dan whining about how he was adopted and grew up in a cupboard under the stairs. Cut to Probst changing the topic, giving Rodney some undeserved ego-stroking.

[Alapaki]

There has been enough blow back Jeff cannot sweep it under the rug.

 

 

True.  But here's how he'll handle it:

 

"Well, this was one of the most talked about seasons ever, with some of the most controversial players ever."

 

"Will, now that you've had some time, do you want to apologize to Shirin?"

 

Will: "Hell no Jeff.  Fuck her!"

 

"Dan?"

 

Dan: "Jeff, I was once assured that I may have been the winner of the Publishers' Clearinghouse Prize.  But then I didn't win.  We've all had it tough.  No.  Fuck Shirin."

 

"Well, like I said, a controversial cast.  When we come back, let's find out what Colby's been up to".

[ProfCrash]

From Jeff's Q&A with Dalton Ross: So expect to see a conversation with Rodney's Mom and at least some time with Will, Dan, and Shirin on the topic. The question is how seriously does Jeff deal with it? I suspect not at all but it has been nice to see Dalton going balls to walls discussing how awful Dan, Will, Rodney, and to some extent Mike, have been. It seems like he is spending a lot of his column time discussing the attitude towards women on the show and questioning the likeability of this cast. It is also the first season that I can think of where so many of the folks writing about the show have called out the internet furor over the casting and what we are seeing. The only time I can think of this type of discussion is Big Brother awfuls racist behavior that lead to the black screen warning about the racist behavior.

 

"ENTERTAINMENT WEEKLY: There has been a lot of unfortunate behavior and comments by men (Will, Dan, Rodney) towards and about women this season. I’ve heard from a lot of fans that are very upset about that, and I’ve also heard from some others who appreciate that we’re seeing a forum in which these people are called out for their attitudes. Talk a little bit about the show’s responsibility in terms of casting so many people that have been acting and speaking in such a disrespectful fashion, and then also your decision making in terms of how much to show of this type of behavior.

JEFF PROBST: One of the key elements in the premise of Survivor is that the game is to be played with people from various walks of life.  In a perfect world, it’s a tapestry of people from different parts of the country, raised with different religious and political beliefs, with a range of IQ’s and physical abilities. You then put them in extreme conflict, in this case, being abandoned on an island, deprive them of everything else and force them to work together while voting each other out.  It’s a tremendously stressful situation and typically, the tougher it gets, the more a person’s façade is stripped away and the more truth is revealed.

And because Survivor is ultimately a game about social politics and the relationships you form with others, it’s only a matter of time before personal opinions and points of view begin to clash. Those battles can be funny, annoying, cathartic, deeply personal and at times incredibly hurtful. They often evoke strong reactions from the other players and from the audience.

 

While I certainly don’t think of Survivor as a social or moral compass, I do believe strongly in doing our best to tell the contestants stories accurately— flattering or not.  There is obviously a touch of bias in every editing decision you have to make about what to put in the show and what to leave out, but our primary goal is to always to reflect the essence of their adventure.  That includes moments that show them at their most heroic as well as moments that expose a less than attractive side of someone’s personality.

 

I really can’t imagine a scenario in which we would not show a scene like the one between Will and Shirin simply because we were afraid that viewers would be upset. That’s just not the way we approach the show. There is no denying that was a very difficult exchange to witness and no matter how many times you watch it, it does not get any easier or any less emotional. But, that level of honesty and vulnerability from people who have been stripped to their very core is a large part of the reason I am still excited to be a part of the show.

 

For me it often comes down to one question: Does an action that we take under duress define us? Does it speak to the truest part of our character?  If so, does that mean we live most of our life behind a mask of social politeness that belies our natural tendencies? Because, to be fair, I have to share that Will was nothing but delightful throughout the entire casting process and most of the show and I imagine in the bar where he works he has a lot of regulars who love him.  Rodney would argue that his comments about women were never meant to offend—in fact he feels the same way about his own mother who is the light of his life. And Dan would tell you that he is adored by many people, is one of the most loyal friends you could ever have and loves his wife, as he said, “like you read about.”

Nobody is ever happy when they see themselves in an unflattering light. We don’t want to see ourselves that way. But sometimes we say and do things that we wish we could take back. In Will’s case, I am curious if, upon reflection he will choose to publicly apologize to Shirin at the live Reunion show. With Rodney, I hope to talk to his mom to hear her take on her son. I expect that she will help us better understand where he is coming from and then his story will probably make more sense. With Dan, I am not sure what to expect.  Dan is one of the most colorful individuals to ever be on the show. As he said to us in casting many times, one of his main goals was “to be remembered.” Mission accomplished. The question is, did Dan’s desire to be remembered compel him to go a bit over the top with some of his comments? Are they authentic to who he is?  And if so, do those comments define him?

 

As for the audience, I believe they are on this ride with us.  Survivor is a devilishly fun game and a big part of the appeal is watching human behavior play out in front of you every Wednesday night."

[pennben]

Oh, Crikey.  I think his answer can be summarized as "boys will be boys".

[peachmangosteen]

Tyler and Carolyn definitely have he potential to be overly smug and blow up their own game.  

 

PLEASE let this happen!

 

I will never, NEVER, understand Shirin's edit! After tonight I would think the winner is Mike based on editing but who the hell knows anymore. I also think Tyler should be eliminated as the winner. He is apparently is playing a really good game and is a huge threat to win but we are not really seeing it.

 

The edits are insanely strange this season. I think it's safe to say now that Mike and Shirin's edits are

of the 'vote for them to be in S31!' variety.

There seems to be a surge in spec now that Tyler is the winner and if so then I guess he'll be the first male with the 'meh we decided to tell a story about assholes instead of the winner' edit because he is straight-up invisible. Not even Sophie or Natalie White got this bad of an invisible/'how did they win?!' edit.

 

I hope Shirin takes the bitter route on Day 39.

 

Here's hoping!

Edited April 30, 2015 by peachmangosteen

[Wings]

So what if they don't apologize?  It would not be sincere. I certainly don't care if they do or don't.   Will is an ignorant pin head and Dan a passive aggressive, dim wit.   Their actions have been blown out of proportion, as often (always!) happens on social media.   Let them twirl and be who they are.   It only reflects poorly on them and no one else.

 

The only choice we have when it comes to another's behavior is how we react.  Shirin has chosen to be a victim.  Another may have let it roll of their back.     eh

Edited April 30, 2015 by wings707

[Special K]

OK, I was badly wrong about Shirin's staying power.

 

But I think Jeff's "Iconic" winner might be Mike:  "A man forsaken and alone, beset by enemies from every corner, clawing his way back to the top inch by inch through sheer grit and sweat and guile."  A true 'Merican Hero. 

 

Hell, he is even starting to look like the Marlboro man, all craggy, chewing on that little (faux) cheroot.

[LadyChatts]

So what if they don't apologize?  I certainly don't care if they do or don't.   Will is an ignorant pin head and Dan a passive aggressive, dim wit.   Their actions have been blown out of proportion, as often (always!) happens on social media.   Let them twirl and be who they are.   It only reflects poorly on them and no one else.

 

The only choice we have when it comes to another's behavior is how we react.  Shirin has chosen to be a victim.  Another may have let it roll of their back.     eh

 

I don't see them apologizing, or doing a half ass apology where they won't admit they did anything wrong but are sorry if it hurt anyone's feelings.  I see them leaving it in the middle.

 

I'm really anxious for this season to be over for many reasons, but one of which is to really get Jeff's take on the season and cast as a whole.  I don't believe he will say what he truly feels until it's all over.  On the one hand, even getting bad backlash is still the 'bad publicity is good publicity'.  People are talking, for better or worse, the ratings are good, and this season has certainly generated more buzz than last year.  But considering Jeff hyped this season and cast so much, assuming he actually meant it when he said it was "the best cast ever" and not best because of the drama, I wonder what he and TPTB are thinking and if we'll see a change in casting going forward.  I don't know if Jeff will get away with letting it just roll off everyone's back at the reunion show.  He may have to actually hold people accountable and not just let them blame it on the environment they were in.  I am also glad that there are many recappers and bloggers that are calling out this cast for what it is.  I don't recall the kind of response from them like this in a really long time.

[peachmangosteen]

Hell, he is even starting to look like the Marlboro man, all craggy, chewing on that little (faux) cheroot.

 

LMAO! Seriously though, what was Mike chewing on during the RC? And, more importantly, why was he chewing on something during the RC?

 

I just read elsewhere that Probst actually said this season's winner is one of the most likable ever. Say what now?! That is sheer lunacy! Even if Mike wins, that's just unmitigated hyperbole. But also, like, Mike has to win. There's no way in hell Probst can think any of the rest of these people could be that likable.

 

I also just realized that the best case scenario for the next ep is actually for Mike to not win the IC. I would assume at that point that Tyler/Carolyn/Rodney would want to split the votes in case Mike plays his idol. So they try to go 3 for Mike and then 2 for Sierra, let's say, and try to keep that from Dan/Sierra. But hopefully Dan/Sierra would figure out what was going down and would join Mike and use Dan's extra vote to get out Tyler. That would be a fun TC!

 

But considering Jenn's 'Ponderosa was super fun because all my buds were there' comment, Sierra or Mike probably goes next. But Jenn actually seems pretty close to Tyler now, too, so it could be him.

Edited April 30, 2015 by peachmangosteen

[Special K]

I could see Jenn enjoying spending time with Sierra and Tyler and Mike (they seem to have remained close).  I can even see her being OK with Rodney, if he's well fed and doing funny schtick.  Rodney seems like he knows how to party.

 

I'm not sure how Jenn feels about hanging out with Carolyn.  I'm not sure how anybody would feel.  Carolyn seems so dour and smug in general, like the old school librarian or something.

 

I can't see her abiding Dan or Will.

[Wings]

Okay, a new perspective.  Had Will not treated Shirin so horribly she may have gotten the annoying, yappy person of Worlds Apart award.  As it stand now she has millions supporting her all over social media.  She is being "stood up for" in a grander way than she ever imagined.  Seriously, this is going to give her a huge ego boost. 

Edited April 30, 2015 by wings707

[Way Wes Jr]

I just want to call it now, before any more clips/photo's show up on CBS.  I'm predicting that Rodney's hissy-fit, as seen in the on-air preview, is related to him not winning, or being chosen as an extra for, the loved one challenge.  [For example, Tyler or Carolyn win the "loved one" challenge, and they choose the other and Will to be the "spend time with," group.  This leads to Rodney's, "vote me out," tirade - since he was betrayed by his alliance.

 

Who will be "hotter," Carolyn or Rodney's mom? [Obligatory Oedipal joke.]

[Lantern7]

I'm thinking the "iconic" winner will be Mike. Probst loves him some Texans, and Mike winning every immunity challenge from now until Day 38 would be one heckuva story.

 

Query: Which 'loved one" would show up for Dan? His wife? Seriously, who would marry that guy? "Somebody blind" would be my (mean) guess.

[peachmangosteen]

There's a new promo. Caps here.

 

Might be a funny ep. I'm gonna guess Rodney loses the RC again on his birthday and decides he wants to quit over it. LOL.

[LadyChatts]

There's a new promo. Caps here.

 

Might be a funny ep. I'm gonna guess Rodney loses the RC again on his birthday and decides he wants to quit over it. LOL.

 

I liked the voice over on that (It's Rodney's birthday, he can cry if he wants to).  Maybe it's just the point that Rodney hasn't won anything on his own yet.  The biggest, youngest, buffest guy there, and he's gotten his butt kicked by pretty much everyone left.  I'm calling a bluff on him quitting.  

 

I'm going with Sierra getting booted this week, and saying Dan waits to use his extra vote next week.  Dan and Sierra may either be blindsided by her boot or Dan could make a deal to vote her off in exchange for keeping him around.  Next week, he could flip back to Mike and try to entice someone from Rodney's four to come to his side.  Or he may not need Mike, but anyone of Rodney's four with half a brain cell may realize going to the end with Dan betters their odds of winning.  They use the extra vote and end up blindsiding Rodney.  There hasn't been much in the promos that makes me think anything exciting will happen this week, aside from that possible nugget about TC being crazy.

Edited May 4, 2015 by LadyChatts

[Wings]

Usually if someone says they want to be voted out, even in a snit fit, they go.  But I think Sierra is the likely boot.  They are not ready to eat one of their alliance yet.   Everyone sees Rodney as the harmless, little blow hard that he is.   

 

Assuming Mike will go on an IC run who will be sitting next to him?   I think this just might get interesting!  

Edited May 4, 2015 by wings707

[ProfCrash]

Or Dan votes for Sierra and uses his extra vote when he doesn't need to. That would be so Dan like....

 

I think Mike wants Dan and Will at his side. It will be a 8-0 vote.

 

Seriously, if there is anyone left in the game that does not want Dan and Will next to them they are idiots.

Edited May 4, 2015 by ProfCrash

[LadyChatts]

Maybe Rodney is pulling the 'I'll say I want to quit because they won't vote me out' strategy.  Plus, he may think his alliance needs him, so why would they get rid of him at this pivotal point?  I think Tyler or Mike win immunity, but if Mike doesn't, he plays the idol.  If Sierra somehow happens to win immunity, then I don't know what to expect.  Maybe a Carolyn blindside.  Or they could finally get Dan out, since he seems to be the other guy whose name always comes up.  But since Jeff said the twist worked well, I can't see him leaving without having used it.

[Lamb18]

Just my thoughts: I don't think Mike has voted for a Blue Collar person since the first merge. So I think he's going to remain loyal to the Blues and vote for other Collars unless there is no other choice, or it would be exteme stupdity not to. That would be a big selling point for the jury that he never voted against his alliance.

 

My feeling is that Carolyn, Tyler and Will will decided to vote out Rodney and may rope in Dan and Sierra and maybe Mike.  Maybe Rodney will put up the split vote between Dan or Sierra and Mike, but Carolyn, Tyler and Will will turn on Rodney instead of voting for the person Rodney chooses for them. 

 

So I think the next will be Sierra or Rodney. Dan is a safe goat. Anyone could win against him except maybe Will.

[LadyChatts]

http://www.survivorfever.net/vc_s30_web_promo_ep12.html

 

Here's another promo, also with Rodney grumbling about his birthday.  Yeah, gonna be a real thrilling episode.  Apparently it's not the lack of reward this time, as it is people forgot and he had to wash dishes on his birthday.  I still say they keep him around, unless he outright quits.  Which means he could jeopardize his spot on the jury.

 

Just my thoughts: I don't think Mike has voted for a Blue Collar person since the first merge. So I think he's going to remain loyal to the Blues and vote for other Collars unless there is no other choice, or it would be exteme stupdity not to. That would be a big selling point for the jury that he never voted against his alliance.

 

 

I believe Mike thought the blues were going to stay strong through the merge and go to the end together.  Finding out about Rodney's sub alliance changed that course for him.  And for whatever reason, it's okay that Rodney flipped but not Mike.  Unless Dan and Sierra don't count Rodney as a flipper, or don't realize that he did in fact desert them (these people have me all confused with their strategy and lack-there-of).  I do think that will be a good argument for Mike to make.  Right now those 3 NC + Shirin may very well decide who wins this game, and I can easily see them giving it to Mike.  He defended Shirin, and forged good relationships with the other 3.  Hali thought they might have worked out a deal down the road.  I believe right now, loyalty aside, he probably thinks he can beat the other blues in a final 3.  And still argue he didn't flip on them and stayed loyal, while they were trying to get them out.  Yeah, Mike's got the best argument right now for a win.

[cooker30]

Some last minute spec - if tonight is as predictable as most of the season then it has to be Sierra or Tyler going. Sierra because she is number 6 of 6. Tyler because Sierra told us he is the biggedt threat to win. There has been a pattern of voting out threats. Lindsey (part of a power couple), Joqiun (power couple), Joe (challenge threat), and Mike (chsllenge and socisl threat.) I would be surprised if anyone else goes.

[Wings]

Could it be that Carolyn wins?  The men will want to take her because none of them think a woman can win, let alone an old one.  Could this happen?  Maybe. 

[303420]

Someone in tonight's episode thread speculated that tonight foreshadowed that Dan's advantage will cause Carolyn's demise. If Dan uses his advantage to vote for Carolyn but Carolyn plays her idol, would that explain some of Jeff's comments, including, maybe, the "Shakespearean" comment?

Carolyn is kinda Lady Macbething it out there.

Edited May 7, 2015 by 303420

[pennben]

 

Could it be that Carolyn wins?  The men will want to take her because none of them think a woman can win, let alone an old one.  Could this happen?  Maybe.

 

She could.  Especially now that Tyler is out.  Otherwise, he would have gotten credit for all of their moves together.  Sigh.  Now, he can advocate for her on the jury, if he so chooses.  Honestly, Carolyn is not my favorite.  But, oh my, if a woman won on this season of disgusting men: well, well well.

Edited May 7, 2015 by pennben

[cooker30]

So in the preview for next week's ep we saw Mike telling Carolyn and Sierra that Dan was for sure voting for one if them. I'm thinking that scene was after the IC and Mike won it again. Otherwise why wouldn't Dan be voting for Mike since he is still "enemy nuber 1"? It could be fun if we see Dan play his extra vote, Carolyn use her idol, and Mike sitting there with the necklace and a big grin:)

[Wings]

So in the preview for next week's ep we saw Mike telling Carolyn and Sierra that Dan was for sure voting for one if them. I'm thinking that scene was after the IC and Mike won it again. Otherwise why wouldn't Dan be voting for Mike since he is still "enemy nuber 1"? It could be fun if we see Dan play his extra vote, Carolyn use her idol, and Mike sitting there with the necklace and a big grin:)

 

 

Good catch!   I failed to pick up on that. 

 

ETA: Jeff liked the way Dan played his advantage.  I suppose I am a fool to even think it could be interesting because no matter what he does it won't be surprising or clever at this point.  So he uses his extra vote to boot one of those who are left?  Okay.  Take you pick, I don't care. 

Edited May 7, 2015 by wings707

[Haleth]

I'm still waiting for "Shakespearean."

Oh, I hope that speculation is right, that Mike wins immunity.

Edited May 7, 2015 by Haleth

[Alapaki]

Any thoughts on whether the candidates to be brought back for next season indicate whether they won this season?

[LadyChatts]

I wonder if Mike cons Carolyn and Sierra into voting for Dan, while getting Dan to use his vote against Carolyn and she's blindsided with the idol.  Or, the theory that she plays her idol and negates an attempt to get rid of her could be a possibility.  Dan can use his second vote for anyone else, so it's possible he splits it between Sierra and Carolyn.  And then Rodney and Will could split there vote between the two girls.  Maybe that's where the targeting them is coming from.  I wonder if it will click into anyone what Jeff said about taking the weakest to the end-maybe Dan doesn't consider himself or Will as weak goats and he wants to prove something by getting rid of one of the two girls.  Who he probably considers weaker than him, despite both kicking his butt in individual challenges.  And who would both be voted off because they are threats, not weak.

[MKL122788]

Jeff did say the new twist would play out beautifully.

 

Dan being eliminated by his own play would humor me.

 

Suppose there was a Mike/Sierra/Carolyn vs. Dan/Will/Rodney split. The latter 3 are playing it cool after Mike wins immunity trying to blindside the girls. Mike finds out, but Carolyn doesn't believe him. They tentatively plan to team up and vote Dan to make it a split. If this happens, you'd think they would go to rocks with Mike/Carolyn/Dan safe and the other three drawing. Instead, Dan uses his extra vote by standing up to call it and Carolyn sees this as a reason to use her idol, resulting in Dan's elimination.

 

The other option is Carolyn uses her idol to save herself and they voted Sierra, so she goes home. Speaking of which, when is the last time you can idol? Normally, it tends to be final 6 in a 3 person finale or final 5 in a two person finale, at least recently.

 

Still, I think if Mike doesn't win immunity at 6(and in the preview, he is bluffing them), he uses it at 5. He uses it to counter Carolyn's idol. Because if the 3 awful men team up at 5, with his extra vote, they can do a 2-2 split on the girls to get around an idol coming back at them.

 

Therefore, I see a decent chance that we go Mike -> Sierra -> Dan/Carolyn depending on various factors at 4.

Edited May 7, 2015 by MKL122788

[Wings]

Taking a look at Rodney winning.  Why would Jeff be so excited if Mike takes it?  Going on an IC run is not all that.  It has been done. 

 

It would make sense that Jeff would be "excited" about a Rodney win.  He is trying to get viewers to like this season and be awed by the conclusion in an OMG, this is a Survivor history, moment.  Three goats in the end and the biggest asshole takes it.  

 

I can see producers in a meeting now.  What do we do about promoting this season?  I got it, let's do a team building exercise with the viewers! Let's pretend we think this is the best thing ever and they will think so too!  High fives all around.  

 

We see that Mike wins IC next week thanks to the preview.  So Sierra goes (Carolyn plays her idol) next week.  Mike the week after that, then Carolyn.  Dan, Will and Rodney as F3.  I can see this, easily.  

Edited May 7, 2015 by wings707

[Alapaki]

Speaking of which, when is the last time you can idol? Normally, it tends to be final 6 in a 3 person finale or final 5 in a two person finale, at least recently.

 

 

My recollection is that you can't use the HII to get into the finale.  I think you can use it to get to the penultimate TC, but not to get thru it.

 

What I don't know is how long Dan can use his extra-vote advantage.  I paused the show on a shot of the instructions for the advantage when Tyler was reading it.  I'm pretty sure the entirety of the parchment was visible.  And i couldn't see any reference to the last time he could use it.  

 

So, theoretically, if Dan is around long enough the extra-vote advantage could be used at F4 to break a tie going into a 3-person FTC, or it could be used at F3 to create a tie going into a 2-person FTC.

 

I can see producers in a meeting now.  What do we do about promoting this season?

 

 

Since I have no confidence in Probst, Burnett, et al's opinions on what makes a good contestant and/or season, I'm taking Jeff's statement as nothing more than trying to puff up a shit season.  "It's not a lie . . . if you believe it."

 

But, suspending that well-founded disbelief, I really don't see any remaining Contestant whose win would be remarkable.  The last possibility would've probably been Shirin.  So I'm left thinking that it's not the person who wins, but how they win that makes this season stand out to TPTB.

 

Who knows, maybe we have the first-ever FTC tie?  

[Special K]

  Why would Jeff be so excited if Mike takes it?  Going on an IC run is not all that.  It has been done. 

 

Yes, but has it been done by someone completely on the outs and clawing his way inch by inch almost entirely on immunities?  Maybe it has, I can't recall.  But  about 2 TCs ago, Mike plunged from uber BC leader to scrappy underdog.  If he can climb back up by sheer grit and cleverness (and joy, I might add, his joy in the game is infectious), sticking it to his arrogant adversaries, "I told you so"-ing the Dans in the game, and triumphing over the assholes the editors have been shoving down our throats all season.  I think JP would love that.

 

I'd kind of love it, too.

[onalark]

This season seems particularly dull.  It's full of characters who all seem to claim deep knowledge of the game and mastery of the best strategies to win ...  yet, the season has been ... dull.  Everyone is playing 'safe.'  Even the scrambling, of which there hasn't been much, has been dull.  Safe scrambling - that's got to be an oxymoron, but I think it fits what we've been shown.

 

I'm wondering:  has the show reached a new evolutionary stage of sorts?  In the early years, people did not know what strategy was the best, so many strategies played out: an early favorite: "I'll catch a lot of fish and everyone will like me and want to keep me," or "I'll gather a lot of firewood and everyone will like me and want to keep me."  After a few years, weaker players realized they could get away with being lazy around camp and would be 'carried,' much to the annoyance of others who still thought the firewood/fish gathering strategy was the only way to go.

 

Then more elaborate strategies around alliances evolved. The fox, bear, goat, bunny paradigm appeared.  Game play grew yet more nuanced (and interesting!).  One aspect that I think kept things really fun was the casting of clueless noobs amongst those who had some inkling of what they were doing.  That, and twists to the game by TPTB that actually did throw wrenches into the works.

 

But this season, we have an island full of 'superfans' and no big twists.  Furthermore, the superfans are dullards everyone. And, the lessons these superfans claim to have mastered are superficial and without any deep insight. "Flippers never win."  Yeah, right.  So don't bother doing any analysis of the fact that you're sixth in an alliance of six ...  because, you know, flippers never win.

 

I wonder how any of this season's characters would have played the game had they been cast years ago - before they got all their superfan "wisdom?"  I'd bet that they'd all be more interesting and likeable - their flaws hidden, so to speak, by their more active game play and scrambling.  

 

Would Jenn have played harder?  She really disappointed me when she more or less 'quit.'  It's too bad, for example, that Sierra didn't want to form a girls alliance.  Her read of things being hopeless was perhaps correct, but I still lay some blame with her (and others) for not being more creative and effective in sowing fear, uncertainty, and doubt to create new cracks to be exploited if only by others after she was gone.

 

Outwit, outplay, outlast - we seem to be squarely in the Outlast evolutionary phase of Survivor.

 

 

[LadyChatts]

My recollection is that you can't use the HII to get into the finale.  I think you can use it to get to the penultimate TC, but not to get thru it.

 

What I don't know is how long Dan can use his extra-vote advantage.  I paused the show on a shot of the instructions for the advantage when Tyler was reading it.  I'm pretty sure the entirety of the parchment was visible.  And i couldn't see any reference to the last time he could use it.  

 

So, theoretically, if Dan is around long enough the extra-vote advantage could be used at F4 to break a tie going into a 3-person FTC, or it could be used at F3 to create a tie going into a 2-person FTC.

 

 

Since I have no confidence in Probst, Burnett, et al's opinions on what makes a good contestant and/or season, I'm taking Jeff's statement as nothing more than trying to puff up a shit season.  "It's not a lie . . . if you believe it."

 

But, suspending that well-founded disbelief, I really don't see any remaining Contestant whose win would be remarkable.  The last possibility would've probably been Shirin.  So I'm left thinking that it's not the person who wins, but how they win that makes this season stand out to TPTB.

 

Who knows, maybe we have the first-ever FTC tie?  

 

Dan said on twitter he has until the final 5 to use his advantage, which is where Carolyn has to use her HII.  So we will be seeing those in the next couple of weeks.  Mike may stir some crap up next week that gets Carolyn to use her idol on herself, and Dan feeling paranoid so he uses his idol.  If he can simple math, he can see that even in a split of 3/3, his extra vote would be the deciding factor in who goes home.  Although I certainly hope there's more to it than just the twist working, and that something happens to make it work "beautifully".  Of course knowing Probst maybe that's all he meant, is that Dan didn't screw it up.

 

I'm surprised we have yet to encounter a FTC tie.  I kind of want one just to see how it gets broken (have they ever revealed that?)  99% of the time I disagree with Jeff's assessment on pretty much everything, and that goes for this season.  I'm convinced more and more he really hated it and that's why he hyped it up as much as he did.  Though I guess being there, he was probably foaming at the mouth over Mike and Joe, and what good TV Will, Shirin, Dan, and Rodney would provide. Now that this season has officially tanked in the eyes of many, he may have to backtrack.  He did make a comment at the start of the season about his hype and said if it failed him in the eyes of viewers, he'd shut up next season about it.

[pennben]

 

Taking a look at Rodney winning.  Why would Jeff be so excited if Mike takes it?  Going on an IC run is not all that.  It has been done.

 

It would make sense that Jeff would be "excited" about a Rodney win.

 

I can see Jeff actually really liking a Rodney win.  He'd see him as a big character who is good for the show and as someone who legitimately had a strategy from early in the game that clearly worked (should he win).  Also, it would be a payoff to the arc that Rodney never wins a reward until he wins the biggest "reward" of the game in the million dollar check.

[truthaboutluv]

Yes, but has it been done by someone completely on the outs and clawing his way inch by inch almost entirely on immunities?  Maybe it has, I can't recall.

 

 

Jud, aka Fabio, in Survivor Guatemala. The others didn't hate him or even dislike him, but they definitely wanted him gone and he got to that final tribal council solely on immunity wins and nothing else. And then he won. At least if Mike can do it, he'd have at least played a decent game which is more than can be said about Jud. 

[Alapaki]

So in the preview for next week's ep we saw Mike telling Carolyn and Sierra that Dan was for sure voting for one if them. I'm thinking that scene was after the IC and Mike won it again. Otherwise why wouldn't Dan be voting for Mike since he is still "enemy nuber 1"? It could be fun if we see Dan play his extra vote, Carolyn use her idol, and Mike sitting there with the necklace and a big grin:)

 

 

I'm not sure it necessarily means that Mike wins the Immunity Challenge, because he has an incentive to make that argument to Carolyn and Sierra either way.  However, I'm fairly certain it means that Carolyn and Sierra didn't win the Immunity Challenge.

 

Mike (who doesn't know Carolyn has a HII or that Dan has an extra vote) would likely make the pitch that neither Carolyn nor Sierra want to go to F5 with Rodney/Will/Dan because they would be numbers 4 and 5 in that pecking order.  His problem is that the most he can offer Carolyn and Sierra is the 3rd vote to force a tie against Rodney/Dan/Will.  At that point, everyone voting in the tie-breaker has a lot more incentive to get Carolyn out of the game than either Rodney, Dan or Will.

 

Or course, if Carolyn is confident that everyone is still aiming for Mike, she knows she can sit back and use her HII to survive a F5 against Rodney/Will/Dan. 

 

The question is how confident Carolyn can be that everyone is targeting Mike.  If she guesses wrong, she risks going home on a 3 (Carolyn) - 2 (Mike) - 1 (whoever Mike votes for) vote.  

 

If Carolyn plays her HII, then she, Sierra and Mike get to decide who goes home.  But, for the same reason as if there was a tie-break, they both have a lot more incentive to get rid of Mike than they do either Rodney, Dan or Will.

[peachmangosteen]

Caps from a new promo with footage of the IC.

Edited May 9, 2015 by peachmangosteen

[kikaha]

I'm not sure it necessarily means that Mike wins the Immunity Challenge, because he has an incentive to make that argument to Carolyn and Sierra either way.  However, I'm fairly certain it means that Carolyn and Sierra didn't win the Immunity Challenge.

 

 

And  the fact that Mike is warning Dan suggests Dan is vulnerable as well.  So if we can take the promo at face value (dangerous!), Mike, Rod or Will wins the IC. 

 

My money is on Mike, in a photo finish with Sierra. 

[LadyChatts]

Since we see Mike, Dan, and Sierra in that promo I wonder if the IC comes down to one of the 3 of them.  I think Mike telling Carolyn and Sierra about Dan targeting them either comes before the challenge, as a way to stir stuff up, or after the challenge and Mike is grasping at straws because he lost.  Carolyn has nothing to worry about with her idol, so if Sierra loses immunity, she might want to consider Mike's words.  Of course if Mike loses immunity, I can not see any way he doesn't get voted off.  My guess is it could be between him, Carolyn, and Sierra this week.  Carolyn may feel too comfortable and get blindsided with her idol.

 

The episode title for this week is "My Word is My Bond" which could be from Dan or Mike promising loyalty to the girls.

[Jextella]

So what if they don't apologize?  It would not be sincere. I certainly don't care if they do or don't.   Will is an ignorant pin head and Dan a passive aggressive, dim wit.   Their actions have been blown out of proportion, as often (always!) happens on social media.   Let them twirl and be who they are.   It only reflects poorly on them and no one else.

 

The only choice we have when it comes to another's behavior is how we react.  Shirin has chosen to be a victim.  Another may have let it roll of their back.     eh

Couldn't agree more.  Shirin sounds about as mature as Rodney when he whined about no one picking him for the reward.

 

And, while Will went way overboard with the insults, if someone had questioned my integrity after I had shared the way he did, I'd be pissed. Majorly pissed.  Shirin was also an aggressor.  Maybe I'd be more sympathetic to her if she didn't insult Will first.

[ProfCrash]

So did everyone question Mike and Dan's integrity when they brought back the bag of beans? Questioning food rewards is a very normal part of Survivor. Kell had has stuffed searched by the tribe when Jerry accused him of having a granola bar or jerky all the way back in Australia. James got yelled at for eating too many plantains. There was trail mix gate last season. Heck, hoarding food is a normal part of the game which is exactly why food is questioned regularly. Sorry, that is the worlds worst excuse for Will's behavior. Joe didn't fly off the handle when Mike lied about the immunity idol to everyone.

Will could have showed everyone the food in the case and turned it back on Mike, Jenn, and Shirin. Instead he attacked Shirin, and olny Shirin. He went so far as to pull Jenn aside and say he was fine with her and there were no hurt feelings over the food.

[Wings]

 

Will could have showed everyone the food in the case and turned it back on Mike, Jenn, and Shirin. Instead he attacked Shirin, and olny Shirin. He went so far as to pull Jenn aside and say he was fine with her and there were no hurt feelings over the food.

 

 

It is impossible to know what the editing left out.  I am willing to bet Shirin played a bigger part than we saw.  We know she irritated everyone with her constant talking but we saw very little of that.  And her behavior probably contributed to no one being interested in stepping in to "defend" her or stop the fight, if that was even a reasonable thing to do.   I think they were used to her clashing with others.   AND, why stick your neck out to get involved with someone no one likes and is not in your alliance?  

Edited May 10, 2015 by wings707

[Mabinogia]

Will could have showed everyone the food in the case and turned it back on Mike, Jenn, and Shirin. Instead he attacked Shirin, and olny Shirin. He went so far as to pull Jenn aside and say he was fine with her and there were no hurt feelings over the food.

 

Which makes me think it was about a lot more than just the food. We weren't there so we will never know what really went down. Even if they all tell us, unless all the stories are exactly the same it's still he said she sad. I don't like either of them so I have no side in this. I think they were both to blame the editors just thought that "mild mannered Will (because up to then he seemed nothing but there) finally snaps and attacks perpetual victim Shirin over some accusation about integrity.

 

I loved the earlier post about the evolution of Survivor and how it is played and that superfans now seem to just be trying to outlast. They think it's gameplay, and perhaps it is, but it's also very boring. Because of this, the editors have to work overtime to make a story. this is, after all, a story. It was probably reality the first few seasons but at this point people are "cast" to fill rolls and the show is edited to tell the story it wants to tell. I could care less what Shirin said to Will or what Will said to Shirin because they are both not people I have any use for or interest in defending and understand that everything said was said in the socially volatile fishbowl of Survivor.

 

I keep coming here hoping for some sign that this season is going to get good. I should know better. When I don't like any of the actors I'm not going to care about the story. These people are all actors in a really boring story about horrible people being rewarded for being horrible.