The Grass is Always Greener on the Knoll

[waving feather]

As I mentioned in my last post, I tend to think LaPorsha being able to garner anywhere from 700,000-2 million views for her performances while Dalton can barely crack 200k says a whole lot about impact and frankly I speak as someone who doesnt care for LaP's style.  And with the itunes recordings being available this week, Trent is the only who cracked the top 100 on itunes. These factors do contribute to fanbase or at least how that he inspired some to spend a little and support him IMO and that hes grabbing peoples attention. MacKenzie was last in itunes rankings FWIW. 

Not only La'Porsha killing it with the youtube views but she's also killing it on Facebook likes, which I read is a better indication of Idol votes from past history. No one else even comes close. In fact, Trent has the lowest social media following across the board, but he did the best on iTunes this week (with the oldie Sharp Dressed Man), so it will be interesting to see what happens.

 

Mac and Dalton probably have the biggest built-in fan bases but since their growth on this show is not much, they may not have picked up much casual voters along the way and causal voters are most important during Top 2 finale week. So, it's possible one of them may crack the top 2 but they will not win.

[BogoGog24]

I'm curious why you dont think they do? At one time Idol was actually based on talent and many times talent won out in the end. I would hope when it comes right down to it being "cute" or being able to strum a guitar would be a lesser thing in what gains someone fans. Its been hashed out why and how social media "followers" dont really matter so lets just say fanbases are building organically based on talent and strength of performance..I wouldnt be the least bit shocked if Trent and LaPorsha are winning that one. As I mentioned in my last post, I tend to think LaPorsha being able to garner anywhere from 700,000-2 million views for her performances while Dalton can barely crack 200k says a whole lot about impact and frankly I speak as someone who doesnt care for LaP's style.  And with the itunes recordings being available this week, Trent is the only who cracked the top 100 on itunes. These factors do contribute to fanbase or at least how that he inspired some to spend a little and support him IMO and that hes grabbing peoples attention. MacKenzie was last in itunes rankings FWIW. 

 

 

But just because a lot of people consider LP and Trent "the most talented" doesn't mean everyone feels that way or that's what everyone likes. Believe it or not, some people prefer MacKenzie's style over La'Porsha's or some prefer Dalton's over Trent's, etc. Just having a great voice does not necessarily mean that person has more "talent" than somebody else. To some people they think MacKenzie is talented because of the way he arranges songs, some people think Dalton is talented because of his performing ability. I don't see why because Trent and LP are the technically best vocalists that automatically translates to "they have the most talent." I don't think people only vote based on voice anyway and they never have. The majority of people who won Idol were not considered the best singers in their seasons. There's always been other qualities that have drawn people to vote, such as likability, personality, image, song choices, performing, connection to a a song, etc. 

 

I think LP is a great singer and a pretty great performer but she does nothing else for me. I wouldn't buy her CD and wouldn't see her in concert. I vote based on who would I be excited to buy a CD from or see in concert and that for me is Dalton, despite the fact he doesn't have the greatest voice. For me there's other things about him that more than make up for that and that's how a lot of his fans see it and why they vote.

 

LP and Trent strike me as very niche-y artists and ones who probably have older fanbases. LP is R&B and despite only being 22 comes off pretty matronly most of the time. I suspect she has a lot of older fans. Trent is also R&B but definitely a more current sounding R&B. He's the oldest in the competition at 25 and that classic Southern Scotty McCreery/Phillip type gentleman that the older demographic loves. They were also both complete unknowns before auditioning for the show and had significantly less followers than Dalton or Mackenzie before the show. 

 

On the converse we have Dalton who was in a Disney boyband before Idol that gained him quite a lot of recognition and fans before he ever appeared on Idol. He's cute, the youngest in the competition at 20 and therefore attracts a mostly younger fanbase, and is pop/rock, which is a commercially extremely viable genre. Dalton is extremely marketable and commercially appealing. He's pretty much what any pop label looks for.

 

MacKenzie made something like the top 20 of season 3 of The Voice, so like Dalton he came in with an already established group of fans. He's a singer/songwriter, very popular style right now, also cute and young, commercially appealing in an Ed Sheeran type way. To me they're the more current and commercially viable artists versus LP and Trent and why I could see them having much larger fanbases than them. It makes perfect sense to me why they might possibly have bigger fanbases.

 

I think the audience is divided, from comments I've seen in various areas, it seems the older audience wants a LP/Trent finale and the younger audience wants Dalton and MacKenzie. I personally love Trent but I've seen many young fans say they want Trent gone. The question is who are the majority of voters: Older demographic or younger demographic? If the older fanbase is dominating in votes, then we most likely will end up with the LP/Trent finale. Personally I want Dalton and Trent. Best vocalist + best performer IMO.

 

Have there ever been three in the finale? Is this one a three person one? TIA

 

I think the way they're probably going to do it is similar to last year where they'll have the 3 onstage and reveal who the 2 competing are. I really hated the way they did that last year and how they couldn't shove Jax off the stage fast enough, without even letting her say anything or give her a proper goodbye package, so I hope if they do it like this again that they at least let the eliminated finalist sing one of their songs or at least get to speak or get a goodbye package like they did for Sonika. God. But I doubt it's gonna be a 3 person finale this year.

[TeeMo]

I just don't think Idol is a place where "established fanbases" make much of a difference unless those fanbases are huge. I suspect that most people who have been watching Idol since the beginning (like me and anyone I know personally who watches) are seeing all of these people for the first time when the auditions start and they pick their favorites then. I couldn't even remember Trent's name until the top ten started but knew that I really liked "mono guy."

I think that the folks with established fanbases have a lot of fans talking to each other all the time about their shared love for a contestant which often makes it seem like they have more overall support than they really do. I think the bulk of the voters/viewers of this show just watch the night it is on, maybe cast a vote or ten and the go about their business until next week's episode. The segment of voters/viewers who are also online chatting about the show all week and seeking out extra info about the contestants is likely quite small as the ITunes sales numbers would seem to indicate.

And I believe the ratings for Idol trend pretty low for the young demographic overall. A lot of young 18-25 year olds work for me and not one of them is watching Idol. Neither are any of my younger relatives. But my aunt and uncle in their 70s have been watching and voting. And my mom and dad. Anecdotal evidence sure, but I just don't this is a show that a very large segment of young people watch anymore.

[howmanywords]

Not only La'Porsha killing it with the youtube views but she's also killing it on Facebook likes, which I read is a better indication of Idol votes from past history. No one else even comes close. In fact, Trent has the lowest social media following across the board, but he did the best on iTunes this week (with the oldie Sharp Dressed Man), so it will be interesting to see what happens.

 

Mac and Dalton probably have the biggest built-in fan bases but since their growth on this show is not much, they may not have picked up much casual voters along the way and causal voters are most important during Top 2 finale week. So, it's possible one of them may crack the top 2 but they will not win.

 

I noticed that too about La'Porsha and the Facebook likes. Great point about how they've been a better indicator of actual votes.

I just don't think Idol is a place where "established fanbases" make much of a difference unless those fanbases are huge. I suspect that most people who have been watching Idol since the beginning (like me and anyone I know personally who watches) are seeing all of these people for the first time when the auditions start and they pick their favorites then. I couldn't even remember Trent's name until the top ten started but knew that I really liked "mono guy."

I think that the folks with established fanbases have a lot of fans talking to each other all the time about their shared love for a contestant which often makes it seem like they have more overall support than they really do. I think the bulk of the voters/viewers of this show just watch the night it is on, maybe cast a vote or ten and the go about their business until next week's episode. The segment of voters/viewers who are also online chatting about the show all week and seeking out extra info about the contestants is likely quite small as the ITunes sales numbers would seem to indicate.

And I believe the ratings for Idol trend pretty low for the young demographic overall. A lot of young 18-25 year olds work for me and not one of them is watching Idol. Neither are any of my younger relatives. But my aunt and uncle in their 70s have been watching and voting. And my mom and dad. Anecdotal evidence sure, but I just don't this is a show that a very large segment of young people watch anymore.

Yep I think at one time Idol had a pretty good size young demo but not anymore and likely why they havent had any luck finding a winner who could be a real popstar singing whats hot today.  Voters and viewers in general skew older..  I feel like as far as these established fanbases go it really doesnt mean much and as you say the more important thing is gaining on that fanbase. I'm having a very hard time imagining MacKenzie still has some large fanbase from being on the Voice 4 years ago.  Hell the winners from even more recent seasons barely have their fans from back then still giving a crap what they do.  IMO the casual vote is being very underestimated. Idol still pulls in a good 8-9 million viewers and thats who will tip the scales especially when it comes down to 2 people. 

 

eta:  If the young people are out there and the examples are that they were voting for people like Olivia, Lee, Gianna and Tristan that should speak volumes regarding how many there are and their impact considering how long those contestants lasted.

Edited March 26, 2016 by howmanywords

[TheGreenKnight]

Speaking of YouTube views…

 

Trent - Chandelier 176,697
LP - Elastic Heart 143,358
LP - Wanted Dead or Alive 114,116
Dalton - Bird Set Free 111,425
Trent - Sharp Dressed Man 98,166
MacKenzie - Tianium 75,273
Dalton - God Only Knows 72,246
MacKenzie - Want to Want Me 69, 663

 

Seeing Dalton’s second performance higher than normal makes me think they might've succeeded in getting him to survive MacKenzie with the sympathy vote. I doubt he can use that tactic to win though.

Edited March 26, 2016 by TheGreenKnight

[designing1]

I assume YouTube can't differentiate between unique views and repeat views, right? That said, I think some fanbases might be more inclined to repeat (and repeat, and repeat) views than others, so those numbers could easily be less than representative of general interest. I think Dalton would have edged out MacKenzie for top three regardless. To me, those two are interchangeable in terms of actual talent.

[queenanne]

I assume YouTube can't differentiate between unique views and repeat views, right? That said, I think some fanbases might be more inclined to repeat (and repeat, and repeat) views than others, so those numbers could easily be less than representative of general interest. I think Dalton would have edged out MacKenzie for top three regardless. To me, those two are interchangeable in terms of actual talent.

 

They are cagey on their algorithm; I had to try to look it up once for a paper.  One thing they did was, they instituted a method where eventually iterations of the videos that resolved without the viewers reaching the end - i.e., if you abort early - eventually those views wash out of the system and the counter rolls back, which is why sometimes you'll see a big whomping decrease in numbers off a former favorite.

[suebee12]

Saw this article on Yahoo Music and found it a little interesting...especially if you read to the end and read Simon Fuller's favorites. Hmmm, he really likes JLo!

 

https://www.yahoo.com/music/show-creator-simon-fuller-on-why-this-may-not-be-175807373.html

[ari333]

Good point about repeat views. 

That was always my beef with the previous mass voting which clearly did not represent actual individuals, just some folks repeat mass voting.

[Qoass]

If Scotty B is throwing shade at La'Porsha, it must be Thursday!

[rereader2]

If Scotty B is throwing shade at La'Porsha, it must be Thursday!

 

Psst, Borchetta--mostly when a singer with a fan base of any magnitude is ousted, their fans stop voting.

[27bored]

I read an article in P2's lawsuit against 19E and it was interesting. One of his allegations is that he was forced to do a free show for JetBlue who was one of the corporate sponsors for an Idol tour. That he wasn't apart of. I wonder if that's why they're not touring this year. And really, the show has cut a lot of corners this year that make me think Phillip Phillips' lawsuit had a pretty damning effect on the show being canceled. Maybe someone at FOX got wind of it and decide it was time to pull the plug.

[perfectstorm]

I read an article in P2's lawsuit against 19E and it was interesting. One of his allegations is that he was forced to do a free show for JetBlue who was one of the corporate sponsors for an Idol tour. That he wasn't apart of. I wonder if that's why they're not touring this year. And really, the show has cut a lot of corners this year that make me think Phillip Phillips' lawsuit had a pretty damning effect on the show being canceled. Maybe someone at FOX got wind of it and decide it was time to pull the plug.

Huh?  The show has been sinking in ratings for the several years.  In fact, the last time they had a profitable tour was Season 11.  It was also the last time they produced a successful winner.  In the summer of 2014, Fox actually blamed the downward spiral with Idol in the last 2 winners (Candice and Caleb) not being successful.

 

19 has always had a horrible reputation in the industry for mismanagement and bilking of their clients.  It's no coincidence that all the Idol alums have broken free from them and sign with other management.

[waving feather]

In the summer of 2014, Fox actually blamed the downward spiral with Idol in the last 2 winners (Candice and Caleb) not being successful.

Well, in that case, Fox is exactly right. You don't have to show me proof that Candice and Caleb won't be successful, it's obvious even before their seasons ended. The show did everything possible to ensure a female winner in Candice (she had a standing ovation for nearly every performance of hers, if I remember correctly). And I'm not exactly sure how Caleb won, that dude is one of the most generic dime-a-dozen singers around.

[howmanywords]

There were other years before this where the tour came very close to be canceled because of poor ticket sales and/or the previous year being so bad.  The venues got smaller and smaller every year and last year it was cut down to only the top 5. The cancellation has little to do with P2's lawsuit but rather financial logistics. BTW I was just reading that P2 WILL be on the finale now.

[shang yiet]

The season 7 tour was so successful it even went to Toronto, I think. I've never heard of other seasons going outside the US.

[27bored]

Huh?  The show has been sinking in ratings for the several years.  In fact, the last time they had a profitable tour was Season 11.  It was also the last time they produced a successful winner.  In the summer of 2014, Fox actually blamed the downward spiral with Idol in the last 2 winners (Candice and Caleb) not being successful.

 

What I'm saying is management/bad press issues are easier to weather when times are good than when they're bad. Allegations of mismanagement and contractual hanky-panky and all that not only takes a toll on the show's credibility (especially now with so much being exposed on social media and all that), but it hurts the winner's viability within the industry. Plus, I heard P2's dispute is pretty ambitious in that it takes on a fairly onerous part of the entertainment industry and how contracts are effectuated.

 

I know ratings have been down, but there's still an audience for Idol. Not to warrant the bloated seasons and big tours like in the past, but people still tune in. But you have to run a tighter ship when ratings are down. I think that's why The Voice is still chugging along even though none of its winners have really made a big impact. The ratings are still good. When the ratings go down, you're probably going to hear more about turmoil and maybe even a few contestants complaining about not being promoted.

[kili]

The season 7 tour was so successful it even went to Toronto, I think. I've never heard of other seasons going outside the US.

 

Toronto was actually a pretty common destination for the tour. Seasons 2, 3, 4, 6,, 7 and 12 went to Toronto. Season 8 and 9 opted for nearby Hamilton while Season 13 went to Orillia and Windsor in Ontario. Season 8 was the only one to stop in Vancouver (West Coast of Canada) and Season 3 also stopped in Ottawa (as well as the aforementioned Toronto).

 

Some seasons even went further afield. Season 3 went to Singapore while Seasons 10, 11 and 14 went to the Philippines.

 

The most successful tour based on revenue, attendance and number of stops was Season 5. I believe Season 8 had the second best revenue (and the highest attendance for any Idol stop - Little Rock, Ark). Season 7 I believe had a little higher attendance than Season 8. I seem to recall Season 10 got the most sell-outs.

[Qoass]

It is my custom to save the Hollywood Week episodes on my beloved TiVo so that I can watch them again after the finale to see how well the producers predicted the contestants we would respond to.  Naturally, the top twelve are well represented but some singers got much more exposure than others.  At the bottom is Avalon with only a brief performance.  Lee Jean had the star-crossed buddies storyline but little else.  We heard about Trent's mono in stereo, of course and while La'Porsha's background was well established, she's mostly noticeable in the background of other people's footage because with that hair, she stands out in every shot.  Manny got a huge amount of screentime given how quickly he was booted.  On top, however, was Dalton by a wide margin.  We saw him sing.  We saw him in talking heads.  We saw him in group drama.  We saw him in the background, the foreground, the audience, montages, you name it, Dalton was in it.  

[bluwater]

They (and most folks at that time) thought Dalton would win, I would imagine. Good looking, sings well, stage presence for days...formula for a winner. The camera loves him too. He has IT.

[BogoGog24]

It helped that Dalton had drama in his group for Group Night which of course bought him tons of camera time. In fact he had a little something interesting to grab him screen time in every round of HW: the "rivalry" with Jaci (green hair chick) which they made a point of discussing in the first round, group round drama, and the guitar "malfunction" in round 3. Dalton was also presumably asked to audition by the producers (his former boyband IM5 was created by none other than Simon Fuller) so naturally they were going to include him a lot. They must have felt he could bring a lot to the early rounds and make interesting TV (and he did).

[waving feather]

And he mentioned in one of Trent's periscopes that he didn't have to do Open Calls? Did that mean he auditioned straight to the judges? He is a bit of a ringer (not in a bad way) so the producers probably knew he had a fan base and would go far.

[TeeMo]

And he mentioned in one of Trent's periscopes that he didn't have to do Open Calls? Did that mean he auditioned straight to the judges? He is a bit of a ringer (not in a bad way) so the producers probably knew he had a fan base and would go far.

I sw him say that too and wondered what it meant. They were talking about how many rounds of competition they went through and Trent said he did 17 and I think Dalton said he did 14?

[BogoGog24]

Yes I heard Trent clearly say "you didn't do open calls." He possibly went straight to the producers round, not sure if he just went straight to the judges. Usually on shows like this when a contestant is scouted/contacted to try out they get to skip the open/cattle call but still have to do the producer round before the TV round.

It still amuses me how like non excited Dalton was when he got his ticket to Hollywood- because he had already been there and lived there for like 3 years as a teenager LOL I mean I'm sure he was excited to get through but the difference between him and the newbies when they score a ticket was hilarious.

[rereader2]

He also had a far better idea what success in the music world amounts to--the newbies had dreams of superstardom and Dalton was all, "It could mean touring on a bus instead of a van." Cracked me up, because, yeah, if you hit it solid, that's about the size of it.