The Winds Of Winter: Book 6 Will Arrive...Someday

[Luciaphile]

Sansa

Stannis

Arya 

 

are my picks. I don't really care about the Greyjoys except for Asha. Dany can stay in Essos for all I care and like someone above, I think the Lannisters' fate is a foregone conclusion. I am curious about Margaery, Brienne, and a few others), but the rest....

[Lady S.]

My thought about the Lightbringer thing wrt Melisandre is that she's biding her time until they can get/make the real Lightbringer. The current one is just something to convince any followers of Stannis.

IA, that's along the lines of racefortheironthrone's explanation.

 

 

The big question here is what’s going on with Melisandre’s ritual – on the one hand, we have Word of God that Melisandre is a faithful servant of R’hllor and believes Stannis is Azor Ahai, which has been confirmed by her chapters in ADWD; on the other, the text of Davos I is thick with suggestions that the ritual is faked. To begin with, there are a number of signs of Melisandre stage-managing a magic show. Rather than making a genuine leap of faith, Stannis is outfitted with  “a long padded glove..[and] a stiff leather cloak” to protect himself. More significantly, the blade once removed from the idol burns with “jade-green flames,” and then loses its impressive appearance: “thrust into the ground, Lightbringer still glowed ruddy hot, but the flames that clung to the sword were dwindling and dying…the burnt and blackened sword in the king’s leather cloak. The Red Sword of Heroes looks a proper mess.” This description of a sword more “burned” than “burning” recalls Davos’ memory of Thoros of Myr (another priest of R’hllor) and his old party trick:

Given that a book later we’ll see a priest of R’hllor move from false fire to a genuine magic in which blood burns with living fire, I think the color of the flames is a sign that Melisandre has jury-rigged the sword with wildfire, and is using a glamour to give it its mystical appearance later on. So – if Melisandre is misunderstood and really believes Stannis to be Azor Ahai reborn, why this farce?

I think we have to understand this ritual as Melisandre’s attempt to get Stannis’ minimum buy-in as a convert of R’hllor as a stepping-stone to a future, genuine ritual, in much the same way that a door-to-door salesman will ask for a glass of water to get inside someone’s house and gain a minimum of good-will needed to start their pitch. This would fit in with Melisandre’s general policy of using underhanded means for what she considers to be good ends, and I think the necessity of this deception is shown in reflection through the story of the forging of Lightbringer:

 

This story is quite important in two ways; first, it confirms that the broad strokes of Melisandre’s ritual (R’hllor will send Azor Ahai during the next War for the Dawn, the hero will have a sword, etc) showing that there’s truth embedded amidst the lies; second, it fits in with our experience of magic in the world of ASOIAF as something that requires sacrifice (which in turn, helps to explain where . In the story, Azor Ahai first makes an offering of his own diligent labor and it’s not enough; next, he makes a show of courage and sacrifices a symbolic animal and it’s not enough. Only when Azor Ahai sacrifices what he loves “best of all there is in this world,” does the magic work and the world is saved.

I think Melisandre is well aware of these requirements, and is trying to commit Stannis deeply to the R’hllorite cause so that he’ll be willing to sacrifice what he loves most of this world (she does succeed in getting him to publicize his faith in his public letter) – and I have a feeling this is why Shireen was brought to the Wall – to bring the true Lightbringer into world. What this has to do with the stone dragon, I’m not exactly sure, because Melisandre hasn’t yet brought that element into her prophecy:

If the Azor Ahai prophecy comes from Asshai, I think it's safe to assume Mel does know the story of how the first Lightbringer was forged and wouldn't really believe dousing a sword with wildfire would be just as good.

 

One Winds PoV that I'm looking forward to is Theon's, his and Jon's stories were what got me through Dance my first read. A good redemption=Death scene would be the best endgame to hope for for him, but I hope it doesn't come for a while yet and he isn't sacrificed by a weirwood in a way to save Jon or some crap. I don't really think GRRM would give away his death in a preview chapter though, and escaping only to be executed by Stannis right away would be terribly anti-climatic. 

 

I also want to see Cersei on her own again keep causing trouble til the bitter end, that exultant tone as she's lifted by Robert Strong was a nice, chilling cliffhanger.

[blackwing]

Loving reading everyone's ideas about book 6. We've already waited 3 years since book 5, I'm expecting another 5. Can't believe the first book came out in 1996, almost 20 years ago. My biggest issue with these books is that by the time the new one gets released, I have forgotten everything that happened in the previous one

[loki567]

Has anybody checked this blog out: http://meereeneseblot.wordpress.com/2013/09/27/untangling-the-meereenese-knot-part-i-who-poisoned-the-locusts/? (incidently, any help on how to hyperlinks on Previously.tv forums?)

 

It's really some interesting analysis about the Meereense plot, about who actually did the poisoning, that Dany might have been actually succeeding in Meereen before her exit, that Barristan might be getting duped, etc. It's definitely something to check out.

[Avaleigh]

Thanks for that loki567 I hadn't read that. I've only read ADWD once save seven or eight chapters that got an immediate reread after I'd finished the first time around. It makes me want to do a reread of only Dany's chapters there. He definitely has me convinced that the Shavepate is the Littlefinger of Essos which I hadn't noticed before. Maybe that was obvious to others but it completely went over my head. 

 

His analysis also makes show Hizdahr make even more sense. Hizdahr's introduction on the show already makes sense and I like the changes that they made but the whole thing with Barristan maybe being wrong is interesting and makes me wonder how the show is going to play this.

 

I'm curious to read some of the other essays at that site. I thought this one was really well done.

[Constantinople]

Has anybody checked this blog out: http://meereeneseblot.wordpress.com/2013/09/27/untangling-the-meereenese-knot-part-i-who-poisoned-the-locusts/? (incidently, any help on how to hyperlinks on Previously.tv forums?)

 

It's really some interesting analysis about the Meereense plot, about who actually did the poisoning, that Dany might have been actually succeeding in Meereen before her exit, that Barristan might be getting duped, etc. It's definitely something to check out.

 

The author might be right, though personally, I think the Shavepate as Littlefinger is a little been there, done that, so I hope it's not correct.

 

However the author does seem to assume that the Sons of the Harpy and/or the Meereenese nobility -- to the extent they differ -- want Hizdahr zo Loraq as King as part of their medium or long-term plans.  They may very well not.  I think in the book someone said there hadn't been a king in Meereen in a thousand years.  So Meereenese elite may be more interested in returning to the more recent traditions of what appeared to be something like a Roman Republic style oligarchy.  And once they have some of their own among the royal entourage, it's a lot easier to take them out.  To put it another way, I wouldn't be surprised if they were willing to sacrifice HzL if that also meant taking out Daenerys.

 

The author also states that the Meereenese nobility / Sons of Harpy came to terms with Daenerys because of their fear of war with Yunkai, Qarth, etc.  However, that may be reversing the order of things.  Yunkai, Qarth and Meereenese nobilty all want to return to the status quo.  It's only Daenerys who doesn't.  So the Meerenese nobilty work in conjunction with outsiders to restore their rule (Ancient Greece is full of examples of one city faction working with outsiders to get rid of another faction because they see themselves has having more in common with the outsiders than their fellow residents).

 

Also, I don't think Daenerys was succeeding.  If she were succeeding, she wouldn't have married HzL.  She's had to write off everything she's done in/to/for Astatpor and Yunkai.  Yunkai can start slaving again.  Yunkai is theoretically required not to re-enslave previous slaves, but there's no real way to enforce that.  So why wouldn't Yunkai want peace?.  Peace is cheaper and they get everything they want.

 

The only accomplishment that Daenerys still has left as a result of her wars against Slaver's Bay is the prohibition of slavery in Meereen.  And even that's likely to go by the boards if she were taken out.

 

All this is subject, however, to the caveat that I've only read the books once, and very, very fast, so I reserve the right to pull an Emily Litella and say "Never mind".

[ElizaD]

GRRM:

 

"Writer's block isn't to blame here, it's distraction. In recent years, all of the work I've been doing creates problems because it creates distraction,” Martin explained. “Because the books and the show are so popular I have interviews to do constantly. I have travel plans constantly. It's like suddenly I get invited to travel to South Africa or Dubai, and who's passing up a free trip to Dubai?”

“I don't write when I travel. I don't write in hotel rooms. I don't write on airplanes. I really have to be in my own house undisturbed to write. Through most of my life no body did bother me, but now everyone bothers me every day. I have assistants and minions whose main job is to make sure people don't bother me so I can actually get writing done."

 

He needs a minion smart enough to put the invitations to Dubai in the trash before GRRM sees them. (And recent years? He was slower than a turtle long before GOT was on HBO.)

 

Usually, when you have a lot of work to do and a deadline to meet, you prioritize and you try to get things done in non-ideal conditions. GRRM sounds so flippant here that I can only conclude that he can't be bothered to work harder. As unhappy as I am with some of the decisions the showrunners have made regarding the published material, I won't blame them one bit when the show starts airing unpublished material.

 

Martin teased fans might get to know Jon Snow’s true paternity in the “Winds of Winter.”

“I’ve not finished ‘The Winds of Winter’ yet, so maybe in that book,” Martin told the NY Post, “but if not then definitely in the next book.”

[benteen]

I'm starting to come to the realization that the books might never be finished.  Even when he finishes The Winds of Winter, there's still another book out there and maybe another one.  GRRM's "Don't push me, I'm coming" style of writing isn't going to improve.

 

He definitely should be enjoying his success but I think he enjoys being a celebrity writer now more than he does actually writing the books.

 

I share your view on what D and D have done with the material, ElizaD.  I haven't always been happy with what they've done with it and I would prefer to read the rest of the story before it was adapted but I'm totally fine with the unpublished material being shown first  because GRRM is never going to finish it.  He had his chances but chose to revel in world-building and this is the deserved result.

Edited October 26, 2014 by benteen

[Winnief]

 

 

I share your view on what D and D have done with the material, ElizaD.  I haven't always been happy with what they've done with it and I would prefer to read the rest of the story before it was adapted but I'm totally fine with the unpublished material being shown first  because GRRM is never going to finish it.  He had his chances but chose to revel in world-building and this is the deserved result.

 

 

Here here!  At least D&D will offer us closure and whatever other mistakes they make, I suspect given their timeline they won't meander nearly as much.  What's really frustrating to me lately is the feelers about eight books, and that from the sounds of it Martin's going to have Dany spend a LONG time in the Dothraki sea "going backward to go forward."  I feel pretty confident that while D&D won't be able to resist having Dany ride Drogon during the battle of Mereen they will NOT be wasting time with Kal Jaqo in Season Six, but will instead have Dany's arc that season consist of her trying to get her and her army to Westeros which will take a while especially if she has to make stops along the way-possibly in Braavos, possibly to meet up with the Golden Company to add them to her ranks, etc. 

[GreyBunny]

I was introduced to this series by watching the television show first so it's fitting that it will probably end that way.  I don't mind Martin doing a little gardening but the weeds are getting out of control and his editor lacks the balls/ovaries to hand him a bucket of Roundup. 

 

I'm not impressed with the Meerenese Knot site linked above for many of the reasons Constantinople mentioned.  The Shavepate's position is dependent on Dany.  He has nothing to gain from her being removed and good luck to her eating the locusts and not dying.  He was a slaver but since Dany came to power his support base became freed slaves.  If Dany dies/leaves and the slavers come back, he's almost guaranteed to be executed.  

Edited October 27, 2014 by GreyBunny

[ElizaD]

I share your view on what D and D have done with the material, ElizaD.  I haven't always been happy with what they've done with it and I would prefer to read the rest of the story before it was adapted but I'm totally fine with the unpublished material being shown first  because GRRM is never going to finish it.  He had his chances but chose to revel in world-building and this is the deserved result.

 

I used to hope that GOT finishing first would make GRRM determined to share his own authentic vision with the readers, but now I'm about to get on the Never Gonna Finish train since it's just as likely he'd be content to stick to hinting that Jeyne Westerling and Willas Tyrell have stuff to do in the future while writing short stories about dead Targs.

 

At least D&D will offer us closure and whatever other mistakes they make, I suspect given their timeline they won't meander nearly as much.  What's really frustrating to me lately is the feelers about eight books, and that from the sounds of it Martin's going to have Dany spend a LONG time in the Dothraki sea "going backward to go forward."

 

While some things about changes like Arya/Tywin and Brienne/Sandor may have seemed fanfiction/fanboy-ish, I appreciate the spirit of "wouldn't it be cool if these two interacted?" since GRRM has been so slow to bring characters back together. The quote that implied Dany and Tyrion wouldn't meet until mid to late TWOW was very frustrating. After four books (five if you read AFFC/ADWD chapters in chronological order) of Dany finding herself in Essos, I'm ready for her to bring the dragons to the kingdom she actually wants to rule and see her deal with people/houses she can't torch without consequences before moving on to the next never-to-be-seen-again spot on her tour.

[benteen]

I've said this before but all I want out of Dany meeting up with the Dothraki is for Dany to get on Drogon's and roast that Khal alive, warning the rest of the Dothraki that if they keep raping and pillaging across Essos, they will get more fire and blood.  One chapter is all it should take but it'll be about 9-10 with GRRM writing, with plenty of food porn thrown in there for good measure.

 

Slightly off-topic...anyone getting The World of Ice and Fire?  I'm hoping to get my copy tomorrow.  I do love my fake history.

[Avaleigh]

I'm getting my copy tomorrow too. I probably won't get a chance to start reading right away but I hope it won't take me too long to get through it.

 

I'm keeping my fingers crossed that this book will help either support or torpedo various theories. Just simple things like establishing timelines and who was where during X event might end up telling us quite a bit, or at least I hope that will be the case.  

 

I'm still kind of bummed that were supposedly only getting two family trees. I was hoping we'd get family trees for the big eight.

[Minneapple]

At least with the show we'll have an ending. I've pretty much accepted that GRRM will never finish. Even if he does, I'm not sure I'll read the books. I really had to work to get through ADWD, and knowing the ending will just make it that much harder to slog through all.his.words.

[SeanC]

I'm still kind of bummed that were supposedly only getting two family trees. I was hoping we'd get family trees for the big eight.

I got my copy today, and there's actually three family trees, though the Lannister one dates back only about a century, and if you've read the "History of the Westerlands" con report, that pretty much covers all the pertinent information.  I wrote up my thoughts on the family trees, bolstered by a few details from the main body of the book, if you're interested.

[BlackberryJam]

Interesting Sean.  Anything else good in the book?  I watched the GRRM event via livestream last night.  The art looks gorgeous.

 

Any new house words?

[SeanC]

It doesn't go into things like House words.  The histories of the reigns of the Targaryen kings are all fascinating, I have to say, and full of new details (I expect people's opinions on Baelor I will be considerably improved by this, mainly based on his early actions).

[BlackberryJam]

Drat.  I was looking forward to some details of some of the smaller house.  I am not that interested in the Targs.  

[SeanC]

The histories of the various individual kingdoms do contain a lot on various houses (the Blackwoods get a number of interesting characters, I must say).

[benteen]

Does Ned's mother finally get a name or does that remain a mystery?

[SeanC]

Ned's mother was Lyarra Stark, daughter of Rodrik Stark (the Wandering Wolf) and Arya Flint.  She was Rickard's first cousin, once-removed (her father, Rodrik, was the brother of Lord Willam, Rickard's grandfather, both being sons of Lord Beron Stark and Lorra Royce).

Edited October 28, 2014 by SeanC

[Hecate7]

Wait, Ned's parents both had the same last name? He and Jaime have even more in common than I thought.

[mac123x]

I've said this before but all I want out of Dany meeting up with the Dothraki is for Dany to get on Drogon's and roast that Khal alive, warning the rest of the Dothraki that if they keep raping and pillaging across Essos, they will get more fire and blood. 

 

From your lips to GRRM's editor's ears.  I'd like to see Drogon eat Kal Whoever, Dany say "follow me to victory" and have the next chapter be the Dothraki breaking the seige of Meereen.  Then they all get on the Iron Fleet and sail the hell away from Essos. 

 

As it stands, I don't see Dany ever leaving Essos.  She's too invested in her "children" to abandon them, and despite her claim to the Iron Throne, she really doesn't have much connection to Westeros.  The only way I could see her deciding to chuck everything she's trying to accomplish in Slaver's Bay is if either Marwyn or Moqorro convinces her of the existential threat that the Others represent and her destined role in defeating them. 

 

Assuming the Others actually do represent an existential threat, because so far, not so much.

[Winnief]

Yest. 10:46 pm

 

The histories of the various individual kingdoms do contain a lot on various houses (the Blackwoods get a number of interesting characters, I must say).

 

 

 

That does make me wonder if the Blackwoods are intended to play some important role in future events.  I always thought if Sansa ended up with Riverrun, then Hoster Blackwood would be a good choice of consort.  It does seem that House Blackwood tends to produce brainy types. 

 

I'm still not sure *what* Martin is waiting for vis a vis Dany getting to Westeros, or when the Others will start to become a real issue south of the Wall.  I must say one thing I think was a very smart move of the show was its big reveal of what was happening to Craster's children-it definitely amplified that threat considerably in viewers minds. 

[jjjmoss]

Most reviews imply that it feels like at best a fanfic-written encyclopedia by people who aren't particularly good at writing.

[SeanC]

If you mean the Amazon reviews, there's a fairly dedicated group of people who dislike GRRM's co-writers.  I mean, obviously it's an encyclopedia; that's the whole point; but as far as "fanfic" goes, I don't really get that criticism.  It feels quite authentic to me.

[Constantinople]

If Martin is the American Tolkien, albeit a grittier and darker one, shouldn't his Silmarillion be published after he's dead?

[Advance35]

Well the GoT story making headlines this afternoon is the fact that the cast supposedly got noteworthy raises.   Among the people listed as having gotten a golden ticket as it were included:

 

Peter Dinklage, Kit Harington, Lena Headey, Emilia Clarke, Nikolaj Coster-Waldau, Natalie Dormer, Sophie Turner, and Maisie Williams.

 

And the article understandably ask the question as to whether this insures that all of the above characters are guaranteed to live til the final season a.k.a the final book.

 

http://insidetv.ew.com/2014/10/30/game-of-thrones-cast-7th-season/

[ElizaD]

I don't have the new book but based on the quotes that I've seen it's written in that faux-medieval style that's ridiculously purple. The information and the art seem to be the good stuff, the writing is just something to be endured.

 

Peter Dinklage, Kit Harington, Lena Headey, Emilia Clarke, Nikolaj Coster-Waldau, Natalie Dormer, Sophie Turner, and Maisie Williams.

 

And the article understandably ask the question as to whether this insures that all of the above characters are guaranteed to live til the final season a.k.a the final book.

 

It says the seventh season is an option. My guess is that everyone except Dormer (who probably got the raise because of her greatly improved profile, Hunger Games and so on) makes it to season 7, as most would probably have predicted before this news.

[Avaleigh]

I'm a little over a quarter of the way through but I've skipped around a bit because I'm impatient like that.

 

Anyway, the two big things that I've taken away from this so far are that Valyrian blood is definitely needed to be a dragonrider and Elio has confirmed that GRRM made sure to put in the Aerys/Joanna stuff that has further fanned the flames of A+J=T. 

 

I know it's a controversial theory but I was really excited to get further evidence in support of this while at the same time pretty much shutting down the theory about Aerys being the father of the twins.

 

I also thought it was interesting that there aren't any children in Asshai. I wonder what that's all about.

 

Was anyone else surprised to find out that Casterly Rock is like three times taller than the wall or something like that? I'm looking forward to seeing it in the books now more than ever. 

 

Also, from reading the bits that I have so far I feel like Houses Hightower, Velaryon, Blackwood, Dayne, and Royce really are Great Houses in all but name.

[benteen]

Well the GoT story making headlines this afternoon is the fact that the cast supposedly got noteworthy raises.   Among the people listed as having gotten a golden ticket as it were included:

 

Peter Dinklage, Kit Harington, Lena Headey, Emilia Clarke, Nikolaj Coster-Waldau, Natalie Dormer, Sophie Turner, and Maisie Williams.

 

And the article understandably ask the question as to whether this insures that all of the above characters are guaranteed to live til the final season a.k.a the final book.

 

http://insidetv.ew.com/2014/10/30/game-of-thrones-cast-7th-season/

 

Understandable but it doesn't guarantee their safety.  Though those five characters are likely to make it till the last book.

 

I've been enjoyed A World of Ice and Fire.  It definitely seems to inflame the A+J theories though I really hope that isn't the case.  I prefer Tyrion to be Tywin's son, it's a far more engaging story and this is a case where blood means everything for their relationship.

[GreyBunny]

I don't see how that means A+J=T.  Aeyrs bedded Joanna on her wedding night, much to Tywin's displeasure, and Rhaella dismissed Joanna from court shortly thereafter.  The twins were born in 266.  Tyrion didn't come along until eight years later.  

 

If anything, it suggests that Aerys was unlikely to have fathered any of the Lannister children.

Edited October 31, 2014 by GreyBunny

[Avaleigh]

GRRM made sure to include that Joanna was in KL in 272 and Tyrion is born in 273. It just seems like an odd detail to include for no reason and it isn't as though they aren't all aware of the theory. I also thought it was interesting that Elio said that A+J= C & J was basically off of the table but specifically said that A + J = T is very much a possibility even though he himself isn't a fan of the theory. 

[Holmbo]

If Tyrion where to be the son of Aerys, who would tell him?

Perhaps it will be made more clear in the books if the dragons take a liking to him but I can't see it ever being confirmed.

[ElizaD]

I've never been a fan of the Tyrion is a Targaryen theory because it allows him to get away with patricide and leads to justifications of Tywin's awful treatment of him. I don't think it (or the twins being Aerys') would add anything to the story. If Tyrion has to ride a dragon, it's much better if he does it because he's well-read, smart and is allowed to try taming a dragon by a Targ monarch who desperately needs help with training her "kids" (I haven't read the recent short story, but weren't people speculating that this Nettles girl wasn't actually a Targaryen bastard but a girl with a clever dragontaming plan and the bastard claim was the Targs saving face/being delusional?). The success of Tyrion Lannister would prove that the Targaryen bloodline isn't inherently superior to the rest of humankind. I prefer it when blood purity in fantasy fiction is endorsed by individual characters but not vindicated by the author: Tyrion Targaryen would be like Hermione Granger turning out to be the result of her mother's affair with a wizard. There's already a genuine Targaryen bastard around (Jon) and a fake (Aegon, who I wish didn't exist because he's doing what Dany, our original Last Targaryen, should be doing); if Tyrion is a secret Targaryen bastard too, it'll get very Oprah: "You get a Targ father! Everyone gets a Targ father!" I dislike the theory even more now that I've seen pointed out that it would create a situation where it wasn't enough for the mothers of the three main characters to die in childbirth, they also had to be products of three rapes that will end up saving Westeros. I despise Tywin but everyone seems to agree that he loved Joanna, who, unlike Lyanna, wasn't kept locked up in a tower where even her brother wasn't allowed to see her without killing her guards first and where the lack of medical care might have contributed to her death as a result of her teenage pregnancy. So I hope this is just GRRM adding stuff that hardcore fans will debate endlessly to his amusement but which won't become canon.

[Holmbo]

I totally agree with you ElizaD.
My reasons for not wanting Tyrion to be a Targaryen was mostly for how it changes his story with Tywin how you mentioned earlier. Also I don't like the idea of him being a character with a destiny. Unless he turns out to be the prince who was promised (any salt and smoke around Casterly Rock?) I'd rather have his end game be a result of his and other peoples actions than some predestined thing.

[Avaleigh]

If Tyrion where to be the son of Aerys, who would tell him?

Perhaps it will be made more clear in the books if the dragons take a liking to him but I can't see it ever being confirmed.

 

 

I've thought about this too and I'm not sure it will simply be a matter of somebody telling him, hey btw, Aerys raped your mother or they had an affair. I think it's possible that he could find out from Barristan that Aerys and Joanna had some sort of relationship. I'd hazard a guess and say that he was around for the encounter in 272 so maybe he can put the possibility out there for Tyrion without actually pondering the idea himself. Or maybe Dany can tell Tyrion anything she's learned from Barristan.

 

I feel like there has to be a specific reason that out of all the things GRRM chooses to have Barristan tell Dany it's that Aerys was infatuated with Joanna Lannister of all people. GRRM holds back so much and doesn't have Dany get into much of her family history but for whatever reason he thinks it's important enough to drop this little nugget into ADWD and then made sure that Elio and Linda put in further stuff to support the possibility of Aerys and Joanna being together the year before Tyrion's birth in TWOIAF. Over and over again we read about the births of these "twisted" Targaryens and here Tyrion is sounding very much like one of those Targ births that went wrong only he managed to survive. The mismatched eyes--we've only ever seen that through another Targ bastard IIRC.  

 

There's also Jon Connington. I don't think JonCon *knows* or even suspects that Tyrion is a son of Aerys but is it possible that he could have been familiar with the talk about Aerys and Joanna? This one doesn't seem terribly likely to me but I thought it was worth considering. Another possibility is that Aerys said something to Jaime that Jaime dismissed or didn't think much of or brushed it off thinking it was one more example of the king's madness. I don't really think that this seems terribly likely either but I'm trying to go through all of the possibilities.  

 

If this theory does turn out to be true I feel like there are so many small connections that end up seeming more significant on second glance. Tyrion's interaction with Jon in AGOT becomes a lot more special if Tyrion is actually Jon's uncle. Even with Jon Connington there's a connection. If Tyrion is actually the son of Aerys then JonCon risked his life to save Rhaegar's remaining brother from drowning. If the theory is true then brothers Jaime and Tyrion are each responsible for killing the other's father. Then there's the whole thing about the dragon having three heads. To me the idea of the dragon having three heads makes WAY more sense if the three riders are all of same shared blood than to have Tyrion be the odd one out. Tyrion, as Dany's half brother would end up with the dragon named after Dany's brother while Jon would get the dragon named after his father. With Tyrion, Dany, and Jon, we also have the connection of them all feeling responsible for killing their mothers to come into the world. (Admittedly, this connection would still be the case without Tyrion being a Targaryen.)

 

If Tywin turns out to be Tyrion's father after all then I feel like so many of those connections go away and the story becomes a lot less complex. 

 

The success of Tyrion Lannister would prove that the Targaryen bloodline isn't inherently superior to the rest of humankind.

 

 

Does this make the Targaryen blood superior or just different? Stark blood seems to be magical too but I don't know that their blood is necessarily better or worse than Targaryens. Their blood just allows for different things. I mean, it's not like there aren't also drawbacks to having Targaryen blood and even if they have it they can't necessarily become a dragonrider, so I guess I disagree with the idea that having Targaryen blood automatically means having "superior" blood. 

 

If Tyrion becomes a dragonrider (I definitely think he's meant for Viserion) and we get some additional confirmation that riders have to have Valyrian/Targaryen blood, then that will get Tyrion (and possibly Dany) wondering about where the Targaryen blood comes from. We haven't gone to Casterly Rock yet but I wonder if there's anything there that could somehow give Tyrion a clue. I feel like it could be one of those situation where the bits of evidence don't add up to anything if they're examined individually but if Tyrion picks up bits of information from a couple of characters in addition to taming Viserion, I think he could begin to ponder the possibility on his own.  

 

There's also the way that Joanna comes to Jaime in Jaime's dream (or maybe it wasn't a dream and it was something to do with a glass candle.) Maybe Joanna will come to Tyrion in a similar way?

 

I've been wanting to look it up but haven't had a chance yet--IIRC when Joanna comes to Jaime in the dream and she talks about Tywin's children, I don't think she mentions Tyrion at all. Only Jaime and Cersei and what Tywin wanted for them. Tyrion doesn't factor into it at all (IIRC) and this writing choice basically reminds me of Ned in his cell thinking about his kids but not including Jon in this group. 

 

I haven't read the recent short story, but weren't people speculating that this Nettles girl wasn't actually a Targaryen bastard but a girl with a clever dragontaming plan and the bastard claim was the Targs saving face/being delusional?

 

 

There's basically nothing supporting the idea that Nettles didn't have a drop of Targ blood somewhere. The whole point is that there just isn't any evidence of people being able to be dragon riders without at least having a drop of Valyrian blood. There's a reason why such emphasis was made about dragonseed and how there was and is Targ blood still all over Dragonstone. If training a dragon were as easy as reading books and bringing the dragon food on a regular basis then there's no reason why there weren't more dragon riders in the past and why all dragon riders appear to have had Valyrian blood. This also helps explains why incest was practiced among the dragonriding families--it was to keep the blood lines pure. It wasn't just the Targaryen Valyrians who were practicing incest.

 

they also had to be products of three rapes that will end up saving Westeros.

 

 

I don't think Rhaegar raped Lyanna. I know we don't know for sure but I just don't get that vibe. I guess I just can't see the one ice and fire union being rape at the end of the day. Aerys though...we know he's a rapist so the idea that he raped Joanna doesn't seem all that far-fetched to me.

 

So I hope this is just GRRM adding stuff that hardcore fans will debate endlessly to his amusement but which won't become canon.

 

 

I honestly don't think that's what was going on. He basically shut the door on A+J = C+J if we take Elio at his word so if it was just about trolling some hardcore fans why wouldn't he leave all of the possibilities on the table? I think it's significant that he took one of them away. It's actually made the debates about Aerys and Joanna more focused so if it was just about him wanting to amuse himself by watching his fans debate endlessly about hints and connections that ultimately aren't going to add up to anything, you'd think he'd refrain from releasing info that takes away from some of the other popular theories.

 

I've never been a fan of the Tyrion is a Targaryen theory because it allows him to get away with patricide and leads to justifications of Tywin's awful treatment of him.

 

 

I don't know that Tyrion is being allowed to get away with patricide. He just won't be a kinslayer. Tywin is still his father even if he isn't his biological father because he's the only father that Tyrion ever had. Their relationship doesn't go away or die just because they aren't biologically father and son. Tywin raised Tyrion so Tyrion will always be Tywin's son on some level. I don't think Genna's comment becomes invalidated either.

 

As far as the idea that Tywin's awful treatment of Tyrion was justified--I disagree. I think Tywin's behavior definitely becomes more understandable (and I fail to see how this is a bad thing TBH) but this doesn't give Tywin a pass for something like Tysha or absolve him from treating Tyrion like shit in general. 

 

The biggest thing about all of this that I disagree with is the idea that it takes away any complexity from the Tywin/Tyrion relationship. To me it only adds complexity and deepens the character of Tywin. It gives me more questions and makes me want to learn more about the situation as a whole. 

 

If Tywin simply is Tyrion's father then I feel like I already know everything that there is to know about that relationship. There isn't anything more to add and I feel like I understand Tywin's issues perfectly. In fact I feel like the Tywin/Tyrion dynamic suddenly becomes a lot less complicated. 

 

Both stories are interesting and I actually won't have a big problem if Tyrion turns out to be Tywin's but I think it will be a missed opportunity if all of these hints and connections turn out to not mean a thing. There are just way, way too many of them at this point for the theory to be discounted.

 

OT All of this uproar over GRRM supposedly ruining the characters of Tyrion and Tywin sort of reminds me of all the Harry Potter fans who lost their shit when books five and six put the Snape-Loved-Lily theory out there. Book six in particular put out a lot of hints but it seemed like most fans hated the idea and came up with all sorts of reason for why it would destroy the series, the character of Snape, the dynamic between Snape and Harry, etc. 

[Winnief]

I've never been a fan of the Tyrion is a Targaryen theory because it allows him to get away with patricide and leads to justifications of Tywin's awful treatment of him. I don't think it (or the twins being Aerys') would add anything to the story. If Tyrion has to ride a dragon, it's much better if he does it because he's well-read, smart and is allowed to try taming a dragon by a Targ monarch who desperately needs help with training her "kids" (I haven't read the recent short story, but weren't people speculating that this Nettles girl wasn't actually a Targaryen bastard but a girl with a clever dragontaming plan and the bastard claim was the Targs saving face/being delusional?). The success of Tyrion Lannister would prove that the Targaryen bloodline isn't inherently superior to the rest of humankind. I prefer it when blood purity in fantasy fiction is endorsed by individual characters but not vindicated by the author: Tyrion Targaryen would be like Hermione Granger turning out to be the result of her mother's affair with a wizard. There's already a genuine Targaryen bastard around (Jon) and a fake (Aegon, who I wish didn't exist because he's doing what Dany, our original Last Targaryen, should be doing); if Tyrion is a secret Targaryen bastard too, it'll get very Oprah: "You get a Targ father! Everyone gets a Targ father!"

 

 

ITA.  Though my personal theory is that Bran will warg one of the dragons and allow Tyrion to ride him.  And I think your comments on Aegon stealing Dany's thunder are exactly why the show decided NOT to use him.  Plus it really does ruin the Tyrion/Tywin story-the whole tragedy was that Tyrion was indeed Tywin's son and furthermore the only one of his children to inherit his gifts but that Tywin just couldn't see it.  Hence on the show they have Tyrion saying outright "I was always your son."  I agree that the Stark bloodline like the Targaryen's appears to have magic in it too-hence the importance of Jon and why I think Rhaegar picked Lyanna in the first place. 

[Avaleigh]

Though my personal theory is that Bran will warg one of the dragons and allow Tyrion to ride him.

 

 

I still think this is possible, I guess my thing is why would Bran warg Viserion specifically and not Rhaegal or Drogon?

 

But I do think that Bran will warg Viserion and part of the reason for that is that Tyrion helped Bran to ride and I really like the idea of Bran returning the favor years later. 

 

Hence on the show they have Tyrion saying outright "I was always your son."

 

I think this comment is still valid even if Tyrion turns out not to be Tywin's biologically. Tyrion is Tywin's son because he always wanted Tywin's approval and tried to be the most like him. It's sort of ironic that the son who is most like Tywin's isn't his son biologically while the one who was his pride and joy and probably looks the most like him isn't nearly as similar in terms of his overall behavior and personality.

[benteen]

I'm tired of prophecies myself.  I don't think every dragonrider needs to have Targ blood.  I think Tyrion being Tywin's son is far more interesting than him being the son of the long-dead Aerys.

 

The Lannister infighting is much more interesting and I think it loses something if Tyrion is not related to Tywin.  I think in this case blood means everything.

[GreyBunny]

I hate the Tyrion is a Targaryen idea also.  If he needs a drop of Varyrian blood to ride a dragon, just stick a Targ ancestor some generations back in the Lannister family tree, he didn't need to be Aerys's son.  (Also, I think Nettles does have Valyrian blood, she was from Dragonstone and considering how the Targs got around, probably everyone on Dragonstone is part Targ.  Many with Valyrian blood, including Quentyn, failed to win over a dragon with disastrous results.  She was clever enough to figure out the way to that particular dragon's heart is through its stomach.).  

 

If Tywin thought Tyrion was Aerys's son, then why not let him go with Uncle Gerion to the Smoking Sea to go look for the family sword when Tyrion was a teen?  Tyrion would be out of Tywin's hair, the boy would have a great adventure with a beloved family member, and if Tyrion didn't come back then so much the better for Tywin.    

Edited November 4, 2014 by GreyBunny

[Avaleigh]

The Lannister infighting is much more interesting and I think it loses something if Tyrion is not related to Tywin.  I think in this case blood means everything.

 

 

If the theory is true Tywin and Tyrion would still be cousins. ;-) Not the same, I know, just saying. I think that's what Tywin means on the show when he refers to Tyrion as being a Lannister. He's a Lannister because his mother was one. 

 

If Tywin thought Tyrion was Aerys's son, then why not let him go with Uncle Gerion to the Smoking Sea to go look for the family sword when Tyrion was a teen?  Tyrion would be out of Tywin's hair, the boy would have a great adventure with a beloved family member, and if Tyrion didn't come back then so much the better for Tywin.

 

 

I think a sadistic part of him might have liked having Tyrion around to torment. I think this is also why Tyrion never became a Maester or a Septon. If it was going to make Tyrion happy in any real or fulfilling sense then it seemed that Tywin wasn't really interested in seeing Tyrion have that. Getting to go and have fun and adventure with his favorite uncle Gerion would be exactly the sort of treat Tywin wouldn't want to give the person who represents his greatest pain. 

 

I agree too with the theory that if Tyrion's conception was rape that this would add another layer to the rape of Tysha and why Tywin chose to be so exceptionally cruel and evil. 

[Constantinople]

I think the idea of Tyrion Aeryson is immensely dull, if only because there have already been innumerable variations of "X is really Y because...".

About the only good thing it would accomplish, were it to become common knowledge, is that it would squelch Tyrion's claim to Casterly Rock (other than by force of arms).

Besides, if
   A + J = T
and
   R + L = J
then
   T = A + R + L
which is not only disgusting, it's chronologically impossible.

On a slightly more serious note, don't the Baratheons have Targaryen blood? So couldn't Stannis, Shireen or one of Robert's bastards quality as potential dragon riders? (I'm not sure how that would happen given Daenerys's attitude about Baratheons, but theoretically it would be possible)

By the way, is it stated as fact in the new book that Valyrian blood is a prerequisite? How was that determined? I would think most people would keep access to dragons tightly controlled, and you'd be more likely to trust blood relatives with a dragon than an outsider.
 

if Tyrion is a secret Targaryen bastard too, it'll get very Oprah: "You get a Targ father! Everyone gets a Targ father!"

More like Jerry Springer

"I killed my lover and father after I caught them in bed together, only to discover my father was really my step-father because my biological father raped my mother, who died giving birth to me. But I still have fantasies about raping and killing my step-father's daughter, my half-sister, and about killing her lover, who is also her twin brother and my half-brother. Plus, I still want to bang my under-aged wife, who is the niece of the lover of my other half-brother."

[FurryFury]

I think Tyrion both being and not being a Targ will still make narrative sense, if you look at it from different angles, so I'm OK with either, personally. There are some good arguments both pro and contra.

[Winnief]

On a slightly more serious note, don't the Baratheons have Targaryen blood? So couldn't Stannis, Shireen or one of Robert's bastards quality as potential dragon riders? (I'm not sure how that would happen given Daenerys's attitude about Baratheons, but theoretically it would be possible)

 

 

Personally, I would LOVE it if Shireen got to be a dragon rider, but I have this horrible feeling she won't survive much longer.  Also it's worth noting other houses with Targaryen/Valyrian blood include the Martell's, (and all the Sand Snakes) as well as House Arryn from back in the day.  But again thanks to Bran's warging the Targ blood might not be necessary in one instance and then there's the question of who the dragons themselves bond with which I think will at least determine why Jon gets Rhaegal-and will be the ultimate proof of Jon's bona fides as far as Dany and everyone else in the Seven Kingdoms is concerned.

[Avaleigh]

On a slightly more serious note, don't the Baratheons have Targaryen blood? So couldn't Stannis, Shireen or one of Robert's bastards quality as potential dragon riders? (I'm not sure how that would happen given Daenerys's attitude about Baratheons, but theoretically it would be possible)

 

 

It's possible but I don't think it's in the cards. Shireen seems like she's going to be used for some kind of sacrifice although this seems more obvious in the show than in the books because of the change in the character of Selyse. Book Selyse might be a fanatic but I find it very hard to believe that Melisandre would be able to get her to sacrifice her only child. Show Selyse on the other hand...she seems like she actively resents Shireen and that fact coupled with her fanaticism seems like it spells bad news for Shireen especially since it doesn't seem like Davos or Stannis will be around to protect her. 

 

By the way, is it stated as fact in the new book that Valyrian blood is a prerequisite? How was that determined?

 

 

It is not directly stated as fact but there is so much evidence to support the idea that it's pretty much being taken as a given. Two of the authors of TWOIAF are convinced that you need some Valyrian blood to be a dragonrider. Obviously though this doesn't mean that anyone with Valyrian blood will necessarily be able to ride a dragon.

 

IMO it makes a lot more sense for a person to need some Valyrian blood. It explains why all of the dragonlords of Valyria practiced incest to keep the bloodlines pure. It explains why so much is made of the dragonseeds in TPatQ. It also explains why no other groups other than the Valyrians were ever able to tame dragons. I think some kind of blood magic is involved. If it was something as simple as doing what Nettles did then I feel like there would be examples of dragonriders who don't have any Valyrian blood and so far it doesn't seem like there have been any in the history of the ASOIAF world. ADWD points out that BBP had Targaryen blood and that's why one (two?) of Dany's dragons liked him. 

 

To me it's similar to the idea that wargs need to have the blood of the First Men. It seems like it's more readily accepted that First Men blood is needed to be a warg but there seems to be more opposition to this applying to Valyrian blood being needed to become a dragonrider.

 

Since the world book has come out it's made me think again about the purpose of characters like Quentyn and Victarion and I'm starting to think that they were included to show us two specific examples of dragon taming gone wrong. With Quentyn we get an example of someone who thinks that having the blood in addition to having plenty of meat to feed it will be enough to claim a dragon for himself. Obviously he was very mistaken.

 

With Victarion as far as I know there isn't any reason to think he has Valyrian blood unless there's something that I've missed or forgotten. So he's going to be an example of somebody who doesn't have the blood but does have a magical horn that seems like it could have the power to help him control and ride a dragon. I think he's going to try to use his own blood in order to try to do the binding spell but I suspect it's going to go terribly wrong because of him not having the right blood. Perhaps Tyrion or Barristan will even witness this. Whatever happens here I won't be surprised if Tyrion somehow gets his hands on that horn after the likely death of Victarion.

 

ETAEuron knows his brother pretty well and Victarion acknowledges that Euron's gifts are always poison. I wonder if it's possible that Euron was counting on Victarion trying to use the horn for himself and that he knows due to sorcery or whatever that Victarion's attempt will be unsuccessful? 

 

if Tyrion is a secret Targaryen bastard too, it'll get very Oprah: "You get a Targ father! Everyone gets a Targ father!"

 

 

I don't really feel like we're going to be overloaded on secret Targaryens. Everybody already knows about Dany and I feel like it has been well set up that Aegon won't actually turn out to be the son of Rhaegar and Elia. The two secrets are Jon and Tyrion and think it's interesting to have the two examples to compare and contrast.

Edited November 5, 2014 by Avaleigh

[benteen]

Personally, I would LOVE it if Shireen got to be a dragon rider, but I have this horrible feeling she won't survive much longer.  Also it's worth noting other houses with Targaryen/Valyrian blood include the Martell's, (and all the Sand Snakes) as well as House Arryn from back in the day.  But again thanks to Bran's warging the Targ blood might not be necessary in one instance and then there's the question of who the dragons themselves bond with which I think will at least determine why Jon gets Rhaegal-and will be the ultimate proof of Jon's bona fides as far as Dany and everyone else in the Seven Kingdoms is concerned.

 

I would love for Shireen to be a dragon rider too, particularly TV Shireen.  But Book Shireen is not TV Shireen so it's very unlikely.

[Constantinople]

 

...is it stated as fact in the new book that Valyrian blood is a prerequisite? How was that determined?

 

It is not directly stated as fact but there is so much evidence to support the idea that it's pretty much being taken as a given. Two of the authors of TWOIAF are convinced that you need some Valyrian blood to be a dragonrider. Obviously though this doesn't mean that anyone with Valyrian blood will necessarily be able to ride a dragon.

 

IMO it makes a lot more sense for a person to need some Valyrian blood. It explains why all of the dragonlords of Valyria practiced incest to keep the bloodlines pure.

 

I'm not sure it explains the incest.

If you only need some Valyrian blood -- whatever that means, since it would probably make more sense if dragon riding is a mutation of whatever gene, and you either inherit that mutated gene from your ancestors, or you don't -- then all that's required is that one parent have Valyrian blood, and even not that much of it.

If the idea is that the more Valyrian blood you have, the more likely you are to be able to ride a dragon, then it's good to have 2 Valyrian parents, but that doesn't mean they have to be so closely related that sexual intercourse between them would be considered incest.

Also, I thought Valyria was theoretically something like a Republic, but essentially the dragonlords were the ruling oligarchy. In that case, incest is bad politics since you need to make alliances with other oligarchs to get ahead; marriage is one of the most common, if not the most common, method of making alliances; and incest largely shuts off that possibility.

 

Given that, and the genetic problems that incest can cause, I'd think the Valyrians would want to stay away from that.

 

It explains why so much is made of the dragonseeds in TPatQ. It also explains why no other groups other than the Valyrians were ever able to tame dragons. I think some kind of blood magic is involved. If it was something as simple as doing what Nettles did then I feel like there would be examples of dragonriders who don't have any Valyrian blood and so far it doesn't seem like there have been any in the history of the ASOIAF world. ADWD points out that BBP had Targaryen blood and that's why one (two?) of Dany's dragons liked him.

I think ADWD says that Brown Ben Plumm claims he has Targaryen blood, but it also says, ad nauseam, that words are wind. ADWD, or other books in the series, also say that mercenaries in Essos use whatever family name they want, and who knows if those names are accurate.

I'm not saying you're wrong. It's Martin's world, we just read it.

It's just that I'd be a little disappointed. A common theme of the series could be "What they tell you is BS": good is rewarded, bad is punished, knights are chivalrous, ladies are lady like, people care about the truth, etc.  That people shovel the BS to gain or maintain power.

In line with that, I'd like the whole dragonriding ideology to be BS. Just another way by which a social elite maintained control over its society and other societies.  But I'm doubtful I'll get my wish.

[Avaleigh]

I think ADWD says that Brown Ben Plumm claims he has Targaryen blood, but it also says, ad nauseam, that words are wind.

 

 

He might be lying or not know what he's talking about, sure, but Tyrion seemed to think it was true so I thought we were being given an explanation for why Viserion in particular had this random liking of BBP.

 

In that case, incest is bad politics since you need to make alliances with other oligarchs to get ahead; marriage is one of the most common, if not the most common, method of making alliances; and incest largely shuts off that possibility.

Given that, and the genetic problems that incest can cause, I'd think the Valyrians would want to stay away from that.

 

 

Incest doesn't seem to have the same genetic consequences in ASOIAF as it does in the real world. The Targaryens have issues of course but not in the way they should for that many generations of incest and not enough to make them think that they should put a stop to the practice. All we have to do is look at the Spanish Hapsburgs to see what that sort of incest will do and that family tree isn't anywhere close to being as incestuous as the Targaryen family tree. 

 

There also isn't any mention of incest being a political dealbreaker in the Valyrian Freehold. The ruling families practiced it for centuries with apparently no problems on that score. Prior to the world book people wondered if it was only the Targaryens who practiced incest and thought that maybe it wasn't something that the other Valyrian dragonlords were into but the world book goes out of its way to clarify. 

 

As for why families would choose to practice incest rather than intermarrying among the other forty dragonriding families, my thought is that the blood magic of some families was stronger than others. It's pointed out that the Targaryens weren't among the most powerful dragonriding families so I think that probably has something to do with it. That being said it seems like there was some intermarriage it just wasn't nearly as common because they saw keeping the bloodlines pure as part of maintaining their power. Since a huge part of their power is dragons I think it makes sense that this ties into the blood purity thing.

 

In line with that, I'd like the whole dragonriding ideology to be BS. Just another way by which a social elite maintained control over its society and other societies.  But I'm doubtful I'll get my wish.

 

 

Out of curiosity, do you think having the blood of the First Men is necessary in order for a character to be a warg? If so, isn't this a pretty similar concept?

[GreyBunny]

Skinchanging is the ability to inhabit an animal.  Warging is skinchanging exclusive to wolves.  

 

I don't think it's been expressly stated that First Men blood is required for skinchanging, but I can't think of an example of someone skinchanging or warging who didn't have First Men blood.