Ratings and Scheduling: Hail to the Gods

[Morrigan2575]

Year to year, S4 (as of 418) is down slightly from S3 but up from S2.

If this guy is a professional he's very bad at his job.

 

ETA: Year to Year up to episode 18 of each Season

 

S1 - 1.09 / 3.06

S2 - 0.96 / 2.54

S3 - 1.03 / 2.81

S4 - 0.98 / 2.59

 

So, up to this point, Arrow S4 is slightly ahead of Arrow S2 but behind S3.  Mind you, it is quite normal for shows to decline year to year, what you need to look at is the rate of decline; which for Arrow is extremely minimal.

 

Now if you factor in full seasons vs S4 up to only 18 episodes (which isn't exactly correct, IMO).

 

S1 - 1.1 / 2.98

S2 - 0.92 / 2.45

S3 - 1.0 / 2.76

S4 - 0.98 / 2.59

 

We're in the same boat, Arrow S4 has a bigger lead over Arrow S2 but still behind Arrow S3.   My numbers are from the Live +SD information reported at TVBTN and/or Spoiler TV.  For the most part I try to update with the finals for the day but some of these may be the Fast Nationals and not account for any adjustments.

 

Where Arrow S4 ends up is anyone's guess, it could come in above/below/equal to Arrow S2.  However, any assertiion that Arrow is bleeding viewers is pure bias/spin/twisting of the numbers.  Honestly, if this guys is a "professional" he should be ashamed but it seems to me that this guy isn't a "professional" and just a biased fan with a bully pulpit 

Edited April 12, 2016 by Morrigan2575

[Midnight Lullaby]

It won't ever stop being funny to me when people praise S1 ratings completely glossing over the fact that they went from more than 4 mil viewers and a 1.3 demo in the pilot to 2.77 mil viewers and a 0.9 in the finale. Sure, the overall ratings ended up being high but they lost 1.5 mil viewers and 0.4 in the demo that they are never going to get back. That can't be viewed as positive.

Also S2 got three episodes with a demo of 0.7 and five with a 0.8. S4 so far one with a 0.7 and one with a 0.8. I liked S2 (until 2x11 and the final episodes) better than anything but the season didn't have the best ratings. It had highs and lows. I don't need to make numbers up to validate my opinion.

[dtissagirl]

I look at those numbers and just go "holy crap, those are some fucking STEADY numbers across four seasons", and imagine Mark Pedowitz and Peter Roth dousing each other in champagne like they won a Formula-1 race in Monaco.

[Morrigan2575]

I look at those numbers and just go "holy crap, those are some fucking STEADY numbers across four seasons", and imagine Mark Pedowitz and Peter Roth dousing each other in champagne like they won a Formula-1 race in Monaco.

I agree, Arrow is very steady. I'm sure the people who count are quite happy with the ratings.

Which is why I have to shake my head at people who claim Arrow is hemorrhaging viewers.

[quarks]

I'd also note that Arrow's first series low, viewers and ratings (now the second lowest), came in season 2, "Seeing Red" - the episode that aired right after Laurel discovered Oliver's secret identity and went to hug him at Verdant, when Oliver was still dating Sara. The second series low, viewers and ratings, came in season 4, "Broken Hearts" - right after Oliver and Felicity broke up.  All of the highest rated/viewed episodes so far this season ("Legends of Yesterday," "Dark Waters," "Blood Debts," "A.W.O.L.", "Brotherhood," "Beyond Redemption," and "Taken") happened when Oliver and Felicity were together (they broke up only at the end of "Taken.")  The lowest rated/viewed episodes have all come after the breakup ("Broken Hearts," "Eleven Fifty-Nine," and "Beacon of Hope,"). The other low episode, "Lost Souls," aired right after another Oliver and Laurel hug and a hint that they might be getting together, along with the return of Ray, and promos suggesting that Felicity and Oliver were having issues because of her focus on another man, Ray.

 

Which is to say, I think we can certainly argue about the effect, positive or negative, that Olicity has had on the show, but at least this season, Oliver and Felicity aren't necessarily associated with lower numbers. Oliver and Felicity break ups, on the other hand, are associated with lower numbers.

 

All of this said, I'm not comfortable with making any firm statements about the overall ratings or viewers for season 4 when we're only on episode 18. I'm fully comfortable with admitting that I have no idea what the ratings/viewers will be for the last few episodes. We've only had two funeral episodes so far ("City of Blood" and "Sara,") neither of which were particularly popular, but two episodes really doesn't seem enough to base a prediction on. And the ratings/viewers did recover after those episodes. If Barry Allen pops over again, I expect the final episodes will get a little ratings bump, but if Berlanti is joining in the champagne dousing that dtissagirl just mentioned, Barry Allen might decide to just run around and around in Central City for awhile and let Star City face its regular May disaster alone.

[dtissagirl]

The one thing I wish I could make everyone EVER understand is, IF narrative happenings are affecting ratings, it'll be reflected IN THE RATINGS OF *THE NEXT* EPISODE. So many people don't get that, it's nuts.

[Midnight Lullaby]

The one thing I wish I could make everyone EVER understand is, IF narrative happenings are affecting ratings, it'll be reflected IN THE RATINGS OF *THE NEXT* EPISODE. So many people don't get that, it's nuts.

This is the most hilarious part for me. Some talk like casual viewers predict the future, LOL

[Ceylon5]

Given that even back when TV ratings were pretty stable, shows did tend to gradually lose viewers as they aged, and given that over the last several years, overall average ratings as calculated in this traditional way have steeply and steadily declined across the board on TV, any show that gains viewers or remains steady is actually an exciting anomaly.  Presumably people are also watching Arrow in all the same non-traditional ways as every other TV show, but the fact that it hasn't eroded their ratings seems to indicate that whatever viewers it's losing to non-traditional methods of viewing, it's gaining in new traditional viewers.  So its viewership is, in effect, most likely going up overall.  

 

Either way, the fact that it's not declining at the same rate as practically every other show on TV is as impressive as it is surprising.  It will eventually have to start succumbing to the same gravity that is affecting all other TV, and when that happens, no doubt there will be plenty of people giving their reasons as to why.  I'm a lot more interested in figuring out why it hasn't been behaving like everything else on TV to date, which is a much more intriguing question.  I'm assuming it must, at least in part, be because of the spin-offs and the explosion of superhero shows on TV.  On the one hand, that gives people more options and makes them more critical because they're comparing shows within the genre; on the other hand, cross-overs do make more viewers aware of the show and possibly hook in new ones or regain old ones who'd left.  And since even the people who have been making the biggest fuss about the direction the show has been going in for the last two seasons (with Felicity as love interest) are still apparently watching it, it must be doing something right...

Edited April 12, 2016 by Ceylon5

[lemotomato]

I agree, Arrow is very steady. I'm sure the people who count are quite happy with the ratings.

Which is why I have to shake my head at people who claim Arrow is hemorrhaging viewers.

They selectively look at episode-to-episode numbers and ignore season-to-season numbers. It like people who point to a freak snowstorm in April as proof global warming isn't happening.

As for Erik K being a "professional", well,tv echo pointed out that he used reddit as a source in one of his episode reviews. That about sums up his credibility.

Edited April 12, 2016 by lemotomato

[JenMD]

Arrow made the Weekly Top Ten in the Nielsen Twitter ratings for the w/e 4/10.  I'm technologically challenged, so here's a link.

 

[lemotomato]

Arrow made the Weekly Top Ten in the Nielsen Twitter ratings for the w/e 4/10.  I'm technologically challenged, so here's a link.

Not bad. According to SmoaknArrow, who also keeps track of this stuff, the last time Arrow made it into the Weekly Top 10 was "Blood Debts" (4x10). 

 

Strange how it correlated with high-ish ratings that time (1.1, 2.83 million), but not this time (0.8, 2.24 million). I guess the general audience really didn't know someone was going to die in this episode.

Edited April 14, 2016 by lemotomato

[ArrowFan]

Not bad. According to SmoaknArrow, who also keeps track of this stuff, the last time Arrow made it into the Weekly Top 10 was "Blood Debts" (4x10). 

 

Strange how it correlated with high-ish ratings that time (1.1, 2.83 million), but not this time (0.8, 2.24 million). I guess the general audience really didn't know someone was going to die in this episode.

 

Probably not. The promo itself didn't really call back to the 4x01 grave scene and we only knew it was happening in 4x18 because of all the articles, which casual viewers dont really take the time to read.

[BkWurm1]

Probably not. The promo itself didn't really call back to the 4x01 grave scene and we only knew it was happening in 4x18 because of all the articles, which casual viewers dont really take the time to read.

I agree.  The promo did say it was the end of an era but that could have been anything and how many episode trailers have we had this season that made it look like so and so was going to die?  They probably stretched the death watch out too long for anyone but the hard core viewers. 

[looptab]

I find hilarious that they called back to the grave in the 410 promos and not the ones for the actual death episode.

[bijoux]

Wait, what? Is this true? Would these numbers be coming out only now?

https://twitter.com/sismoak/status/720979304750977024

[lemotomato]

The +7 ratings for March 21-27 ("Broken Hearts") just got posted. Arrow got a 86% bump in demo and 63% in viewers to go from 0.7 / 2.08 million to 1.3 / 3.41 million.

 

Not surprisingly, lots of shows that week got huge boosts in ratings when the +7 audience was factored in. As lots of people here pointed out, the  overnight numbers were down for all shows across the board, probably because of daylight savings time.

Edited April 15, 2016 by lemotomato

[looptab]

Wait, wasn't Olicity costing the show a million viewers? :D

[lemotomato]

If you take the +7 numbers into account, you could make the argument that breaking Olicity up actually hurt the ratings. The cumulative ratings for 416 (1.3 / 3.41 million) are slightly lower than the ones for episodes 410-14, when Oliver and Felicity were at the height of post-engagement bliss.

415: 1.0/2.70 million Live+Same Day ratings. BM drama, Olicity break up-- Arrow doesn't make it into the top 25 shows with +7 growth numbers, so no +7 data available

414: 0.9 / 2.44 million Live+Same Day; 1.6 / 3.84 million +7 audience (78% and 57% increases)

413: 0.9 / 2.45 million L+SD; 1.5 / 3.77 million +7 audience (67% / 54%)

412: 0.9 / 2.48 million L+SD; 1.5 / 3.74 million +7 audience (67% / 51%)

411: 1.1 / 2.77 million L+SD; 1.7 / 4.01 million +7 audience (55% / 45%)

410: 1.1 / 2.83 million L+SD; 1.8 / 4.30 million +7 audience (64%/52%)

For reference:

409: 1.0 / 2.82 million L+SD; 1.6 / 4.04 million +7 audience

410 and 411, the two episodes post winter hiatus that arguably were the most Olicity-positive (flash forward in 410 not withstanding) and Felicity-centric, got 4 million viewers. And yes, the higher numbers could just as likely be spillover from the crossover with Flash. But the bump in 410 makes me think there's a part of the audience invested in whether or not Felicity survived and to see how that storyline turned out

Edited April 15, 2016 by lemotomato

[bijoux]

Aw, I'm pleased to see 411 has high numbers since it was the best episode this season IMO.

[ArrowFan]

If you take the +7 numbers into account, you could make the argument that breaking Olicity up actually hurt the ratings. The cumulative ratings for 416 (1.3 / 3.41 million) are slightly lower than the ones for episodes 410-14, when Oliver and Felicity were at the height of post-engagement bliss.

415: 1.0/2.70 million Live+Same Day ratings. BM drama, Olicity break up-- Arrow doesn't make it into the top 25 shows with +7 growth numbers, so no +7 data available

414: 0.9 / 2.44 million Live+Same Day; 1.6 / 3.84 million +7 audience (78% and 57% increases)

413: 0.9 / 2.45 million L+SD; 1.5 / 3.77 million +7 audience (67% / 54%)

412: 0.9 / 2.48 million L+SD; 1.5 / 3.74 million +7 audience (67% / 51%)

411: 1.1 / 2.77 million L+SD; 1.7 / 4.01 million +7 audience (55% / 45%)

410: 1.1 / 2.83 million L+SD; 1.8 / 4.30 million +7 audience (64%/52%)

For reference:

409: 1.0 / 2.82 million L+SD; 1.6 / 4.04 million +7 audience

410 and 411, the two episodes post winter hiatus that arguably were the most Olicity-positive (flash forward in 410 not withstanding) and Felicity-centric, got 4 million viewers. And yes, the higher numbers could just as likely be spillover from the crossover with Flash. But the bump in 410 makes me think there's a part of the audience invested in whether or not Felicity survived and to see how that storyline turned out

 

You'll also end up with a lower total demo for 4x16 because it was low in the 1st place.

If you look at average gain per episode quoted above:

4x09-- 1.0 to 1.6

4x10-- 1.1 to 1.8

4x11-- 1.1 to 1.7

4x12-- 0.9 to 1.5

4x13-- 0.9 to 1.5

4x14-- 0.9 to 1.6

4x16-- 0.7 to 1.3

 

For each episode listed, it's a .6 - .7 increase. That's really stable.

 

Will we ever know why some episodes are lower than others? No. I can guess it was due to poor promo, or the casual viewer losing interest in the middle of the season, etc.

But Arrow's core audience, whether they watch live or not, is rock steady overall.

[lemotomato]

You'll also end up with a lower total demo for 4x16 because it was low in the 1st place.

If you look at average gain per episode quoted above:

4x09-- 1.0 to 1.6

4x10-- 1.1 to 1.8

4x11-- 1.1 to 1.7

4x12-- 0.9 to 1.5

4x13-- 0.9 to 1.5

4x14-- 0.9 to 1.6

4x16-- 0.7 to 1.3

 

For each episode listed, it's a .6 - .7 increase. That's really stable.

 

Will we ever know why some episodes are lower than others? No. I can guess it was due to poor promo, or the casual viewer losing interest in the middle of the season, etc.

But Arrow's core audience, whether they watch live or not, is rock steady overall.

It's like dtissagirl said earlier, the CW higher ups are probably somewhere dousing themselves in champagne over how steady Arrow's audience is.

The only losers are those of us that want more Arrow-related PR stuff. Why would the network spend money promoting a show that some people already watch no matter what?

[dtissagirl]

The lowest Live+SD demo Arrow ever gets is 0.7. Please look up demo averages for Jane the Virgin, Crazy Ex-Girlfriend, The Originals, The Vampire Diaries, iZombie, Reign, and The 100.

 

Here, updated yesterday: http://www.spottedratings.com/2015/10/cw-weekly-plus-power-rankings-for-2015.html

 

I mean.

[Morrigan2575]

The +7 ratings for March 21-27 ("Broken Hearts") just got posted. Arrow got a 86% bump in demo and 63% in viewers to go from 0.7 / 2.08 million to 1.3 / 3.41 million.

Not surprisingly, lots of shows that week got huge boosts in ratings when the +7 audience was factored in. As lots of people here pointed out, the overnight numbers were down for all shows across the board, probably because of daylight savings time.

I didn't see an answer to your question. Live+7 information is always a couple off weeks behind. Most sites only report the Top 25 changes in demo and viewers, which is why Arrow only occasionally makes the list.

[ArrowFan]

9 of the (so far) 16 episodes that have the information fell into the Top 25. Not too shabby. :)

 

(4x03, 4x08, 4x09 - 4x14, 4x16)

[ArrowFan]

Same Day vs. +3 vs. +7 day ratings for CW shows: http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2016/04/22/the-cw-same-day-vs-dvr-rankings-for-2015-16/

 

As predicted, Arrow is in 2nd place. Incredible for a 4th season show. And look at SPN, it's like 200 seasons in and doing so well! That's where I anticipate Arrow to end up eventually.... around SPN's averages.

[Primal Slayer]

Arrow will either be the next SPN or the next TVD.

[ArrowFan]

Arrow will either be the next SPN or the next TVD.

 

I sincerely hope that Arrow finishes in 6 seasons, and if not, "reboots" with a new generation of characters.

[lemotomato]

I sincerely hope that Arrow finishes in 6 seasons, and if not, "reboots" with a new generation of characters.

I hope they wrap up in 6 seasons too. Better to go out strong than try to drag it out. And it's not like the network cares about whether Arrow stays or goes anyway.

 

I can see it now: the show's series finale airs, and the CW will post a tweet congratulating Justin Hartley on a job well done.

Edited April 22, 2016 by lemotomato

[Primal Slayer]

CW rarely knows how to let go and neither do any of their actors who aren't the GG cast or Nina Dobrev. MG and co. had a 5 season idea but $$$ talks and they will milk the show dry.

[thegirlsleuth]

I think the only thing that will save us from going longer that 6 seasons is if Stephen Amell's movie career takes off.  Buy those TMNT tickets!  You can sneak into another movie once you're inside, but buy those tickets!

 

I wonder where LoT would have been ranked if you excluded the premier.  Would it have been lower than Arrow?  Supernatural?  I gave up Supernatural years ago, but I'm very glad that Jensen Ackles has had steady work. 

Edited April 22, 2016 by thegirlsleuth

[SleepDeprived]

I think the only thing that will save us from going longer that 6 seasons is if Stephen Amell's movie career takes off.  Buy those TMNT tickets!  You can sneak into another movie one you're inside, but buy those tickets!

 

Lol. Nah. I'd rather suffer through another season of plot-driven Arrow than give Michael Bay any of my money. Sorry, Steve!

[ArrowFan]

CW rarely knows how to let go and neither do any of their actors who aren't the GG cast or Nina Dobrev. MG and co. had a 5 season idea but $$$ talks and they will milk the show dry.

 

I REALLY hope not. I really do hope Stephen's career takes off. Seems like both he and Emily are interested in doing movies. It'd be an awesome idea to reboot if they wanted to keep it going. It would give Black Canary another chance.

[thegirlsleuth]

Lol. Nah. I'd rather suffer through another season of plot-driven Arrow than give Michael Bay any of my money. Sorry, Steve!

It shows how little I've paid attention to this movie that I forgot it was a Michael Bay film.

[ComicFan777]

I REALLY hope not. I really do hope Stephen's career takes off. Seems like both he and Emily are interested in doing movies. It'd be an awesome idea to reboot if they wanted to keep it going. It would give Black Canary another chance.

 

Since the show is called Arrow, they could continue with next gen Green Arrow or Red Arrow (Roy or Thea).

[NumberCruncher]

Stephen's movie career doesn't necessarily have to explode for him to choose not to renew his contract. I, too, hope that happens because after 6 seasons any show starts to get stale. The Brits know when to quit with their TV series. I wish more US shows/networks would learn that lesson.

Side note: I went to see The Jungle Book today and the TMNT 2 trailer previewed. I have to say that even if that movie isn't my cup of tea, Stephen is damn pretty on the big screen.

[Chaser]

Three week hiatus

Chicago preemption

Plus the preview showing things that doesn't generally lead to great ratings

Yeah. Ratings won't be good.

[ArrowFan]

UGH I KNOW. It's gonna suck.

Here's hoping 4x20 will have a huge jump (no hiatus, no preemption, etc).

[BkWurm1]

I sincerely hope that Arrow finishes in 6 seasons, and if not, "reboots" with a new generation of characters.

SA has already confirmed he's contracted through season 7 so dreams of season 6 seem unlikely. 

[Velocity23]

In s1 Arrow actually was still being promoted by CW!

[SmallScreenDiva]

It'd be great if the numbers tick up for 419, especially since it seems like part of it is going to be Diggle-centric. But I haven't seen anything from the official accounts reminding people of Arrow's return from hiatus. There is a Q&A with Paul Blackthorne on FB later today, so that could be the start of promotions. Hope whatever teasers they drop on Wednesday make the ep sound more interesting than the trailer has so far. Right now only the Diggle stuff is intriguing me. Also, I'd like to see more of that limo scene between Oliver and Felicity. Everything else, the LL stuff, the L/O stuff is just all ZZZZZ's to me.  

[tarotx]

Broadcast Live +7 ratings: ‘Empire’ and ‘Big Bang Theory’ stay on top for April 4-10

http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2016/04/25/broadcast-live-7-ratings-april-4-10-2016/

Edited April 25, 2016 by tarotx

[MuuMuuChainsmoker]

Ratchet down the combative tone please.   

 

As a side note: if Erik Kane is just a fan...well, you know where this is going.  :P

[wonderwall]

As a side note: if Erik Kane is just a fan,,,well, you know where this is going.  :P

Erik Kane's articles are published in Forbes :)

[MuuMuuChainsmoker]

Erik Kane's articles are published in Forbes :)

 

I hear ya and I'm not trying to come down with both feet.  That being said, a lot of the posts above are just *barely* skirting the "People who say Olicity kills show ratings are inbred idiots" line.   I'm asking people to self monitor with that line of discussion. 

[Coop33]

The Cubs game was postponed due to rain about 45 minutes before the episode started, so the Chicago market was not preempted after all. Don't know if that was enough time for people to notice the change though.

[Velocity23]

A 0.9 and 2,284 mil viewers

[tv echo]

That's better than I expected.  For comparison, here's this week's superhero show ratings...

Supergirl - (done for season, finale on Apr. 18 was 1.3 and 6.11)
Gotham - (rerun this week, last new episode on Apr. 18 was 1.2 and 3.72)
Flash - 1.3 and 3.39 (final)
Agents of SHIELD - 1.0 and 3.22 (final)
Arrow - 0.9 and 2.28 (preliminary)
LoT - ?

Edited April 28, 2016 by tv echo

[Guest]

Wow, that's much better than I expected. Honestly, I was anticipating a 0.7 again. 

[tarotx]

Arrow actually did some internet promo this week. Paul was pretty much every where. So it wasn't as bad as when they came back last time with just the episode previews day of show.  

[NumberCruncher]

Back in the magic Arrow ratings range. I'll take it!