Ratings and Scheduling: Hail to the Gods

[Chaser]

I thought it was just a results show?

You know...if I wanted to make this a good thing for Olicity I totally could. Didn't Quarks outline how whenever Oliver and Laurel have a positive interaction, the ratings are down for the next episode? Also, two things were big in the media leading up to 4x05. Constantine and all those articles about an Olicity engagement. But they promoted this episode with Rays front and center and heavily featured Sara and Laurel.

The things I tell myself lol. I feel better.

[tarotx]

It's just the 2.3 over all rating. It's the lowest of the year.

In the US Ray and Felicity Angst is how the episode was advertised.

Edited November 12, 2015 by tarotx

[quarks]

Didn't Quarks outline how whenever Oliver and Laurel have a positive interaction, the ratings are down for the next episode? 

 

 

Quarks did!

 

It's hard to tell anything from a single episode, but Arrow has a few consistent patterns:

 

1. Episodes featuring Barry Allen tend to do very well as long as the show promotes his arrival (the one exception is this season's premiere, which didn't advertise his cameo.) Kid's popular. In related news, Arrow is hoping you will all tune in again in a few weeks.

 

2. Total viewers tend to drop after any episode that hints that Oliver and Laurel might be getting together, and go up after they break up. There's a weaker trend where total viewers go up after any episode suggesting that Oliver and Felicity might be getting together/are together, and drop after any episode that pulls them apart.  There's a few exceptions for both trends, but examples of both trends far outnumber the exceptions.

 

"Haunted" ended with a scene that promised to rebuild Oliver and Laurel's friendship, and had several moments that, in the interests of being diplomatic, I will say could be interpreted as shippy. Many people on this pretty pro-Olicity forum, for instance, thought that the episode at least opened the possibility of a later return to Oliver/Laurel, as did at least a few reviewers.  "Haunted" also ended with the announcement that Felicity's ex Ray was returning. So - suggestion that Oliver/Laurel could get back together (after several episodes where they did not share a single one on one scene), plus the return of Felicity's ex, followed by a drop in total viewers. I wouldn't call this conclusive by any means (especially since other people have already pointed out plausible alternatives for the drop in ratings/total viewers for this episode), but it does fit the pattern.

 

It's very hard to see a similar pattern with Ray. Here's five episodes featuring Ray from season three:

 

Draw Back Your Bow: 2.64 total viewers, in range for that month

 

Nanda Parbat: 3.07 total viewers, the highlight of that month

 

Suicidal Tendencies: 2.86 total viewers, the highlight of that month (much higher than the episodes immediately before and after)

 

Public Enemy: 2.48 total viewers, ouch

 

Broken Arrow: 2.47 total viewers, also ouch

 

So, with total viewers, that's two good, one midrange, and two bad episodes for Ray. Hard to find a pattern there, although I'd agree that the total viewers for this episode might be giving a few executives a qualm or two about Legends. Then again, the Captain Cold and Firestorm episodes have done decently over on Flash, so I doubt that anyone's losing sleep. Yet.

 

Meanwhile, it does seem that Constantine may have brought in a ratings/viewers boost, suggesting that crossover episodes are still popular.

[Chaser]

That's like a one-two punch. Positive Oliver and Laurel interaction and then to see previews of Ray coming back and Felicity angst. Lol

 

It's the 4th season, viewers are expected to decline. As long as the demo remains consistent, the network is happy.

[SmallScreenDiva]

I wouldn't worry too much about the ratings. Network folks look at trends and not individual episodes. Plus, as far as I know, Nielsen ratings don't provide the data so anybody can extrapolate what made people tune in or tune out. Similar information could be gathered from other sources, I believe (such as Nielsen Social). Not exactly why people didn't watch, but what people watching got interested in. There are social media tracking companies that look at what engages audiences during an episode and they can tell from spikes (kinda similar to the spike in the Olicity hashtag for Wednesday shared upthread). 

 

This episode wasn't actually marketed as an Olicity episode here in the U.S. (and judging from the promos, not abroad either). It was marketed as Ray's big return to the field. That's what the articles that came out since Thursday last week were mostly about. That was what that 30-second promo that aired after the episode was about. There was no mention of Olicity. The Olicity push actually didn't happen until Wednesday when the articles featuring Charlotte Ross and the teasers, which if you noticed were all Olicity related, came out. My guess, and this is purely a guess, is the Ray push didn't generate much buzz. Which may not bode well for LOT.

Edited November 12, 2015 by SmallScreenDiva

[kismet]

LoT is more than just RP. Clearly, if RP was going to be a big draw the show would have The Atom. The network signed up for a team-up Ensemble for a reason. So unless BR wants out of LoT, I think TPTB are going to satisfied with his performance in whatever episodes we are forced fed tater tots until they become part of a balanced meal on LoT. :)

[AyChihuahua]

There are opinions, and then there are facts.  It's my opinion that that Ben Franklin was the best Founding Father; it's a fact that he was a Founding Father.  Similarly, it's a fact that Ray the Cane Toad sucks and ruins everything, including Arrow ratings.  FACT.  

[Primal Slayer]

So now positive Laurel/Oliver interaction lowers ratings but Saras death isn't what drove people away last time? And Constantine last week didn't bring viewers but now he did? I don't think any particular character drives people away. All I know is that Flash drives people to the show for sure.

[apinknightmare]

I think that certain characters absolutely drive some people away. It's just not the same character for every person.

[Primal Slayer]

Of course it drives some people away but I don't think it is significant enough to really affect the overall ratings.

[apinknightmare]

I think it could, depending on what it is that character is up to. But we'll never have any kind of valuable data on it, so it's pointless to speculate. 

[dtissagirl]

Of course it drives some people away but I don't think it is significant enough to really affect the overall ratings.

Hollywood believes it does, though. The networks pay good dough to companies that analyze rating trends, and one of the things those companies keep track of is the kind of character/relationship trends @quarks described. Finding out what characters and relationships and storylines are making people come back for the next episode -- and then figuring out if a trend develops-- is kind of a big deal for the networks.

[quarks]

So now positive Laurel/Oliver interaction lowers ratings but Saras death isn't what drove people away last time? And Constantine last week didn't bring viewers but now he did? I don't think any particular character drives people away. All I know is that Flash drives people to the show for sure.

 

Not "now." This happened in the first season and the second season, multiple times. It's an unusual trend/pattern for will they/won't they couples - it's not happening over on Flash, for instance, with either Barry/Iris or Barry/Caitlin.  (Or, for that matter, Barry/Patty, although those two mostly skipped the will they/won't they and moved right on to "will," so possibly not the best example.) 

 

And for what it's worth, the low ratings/viewers for "Sara" do follow the Oliver/Felicity pattern: Oliver/Felicity broke up at the end of the previous episode, "The Calm," and total viewers/ratings fell, as they tend to do whenever something blocks Oliver/Felicity or the two move apart. They also follow the Oliver/Laurel pattern: they had a positive interaction showcasing their partnership in the previous episode.  So although my personal opinion (not fact) is that the drop in ratings/viewers for "Sara" may have stemmed from other factors, that drop also doesn't invalidate the pattern we're discussing here.

 

Meanwhile, we can also look at what's happening on the show. Flash, after all, continues to have Barry/Iris, Barry/Caitlin, and even Barry/Linda moments even as it zooms ahead with Barry/Patty. Arrow is doing no such thing - indeed, until "Haunted," Arrow went out of its way to avoid Oliver/Laurel moments for eight episodes.  

 

And sure enough, once those moments appeared, ratings/viewers dropped, following the general pattern.

 

[/prohat - Networks do send feedback on scripts well before anything is filmed - you can see this on the script pages MG regularly releases, with the different colored scripts. These notes can cover plot trends along with other crap. In some cases it's not just the network - Microsoft, for instance, as a sponsor of the show, was sending feedback on Arrow during at least the first and second seasons. It's impossible to know just how much input/influence Microsoft had on the show, but it's not exactly surprising that the role of the funny, popular hacker character who just happened to have Windows 8 on her tablet increased, either, even if some viewers felt slightly dubious about the software choices of said hacker. I'm not trying to get all conspiracy minded here, mind you - I think Arrow had a number of reasons for increasing Felicity's role/turning her into the main love interest besides making Microsoft happy. It's just that Microsoft's feedback might have encouraged that.]

[calliope1975]

So, you're saying I might have to thank Microsoft for something? Grumbles. Fine, but I still refuse to use Bing!

So, you're saying I might have to thank Microsoft for something? Grumbles. Fine, but I still refuse to use Bing!

[dcinmb]

Last night's Voice was a one-off Wednesday results show. Next week, it goes back to its usual Monday-Tuesday schedule.

[BkWurm1]

Veteran's day also had most schools closed not to mention the banks and and the government. Anything like that messes with a family's normal schedule too.

[tv echo]

Just to confirm - for 406, Arrow got a 0.9 and 2.30 for final adjusted ratings:
http://www.spoilertv.com/2015/11/final-adjusted-tv-ratings-for-wednesday_12.html

 

I think that it was likely a combination of the things mentioned above.  In addition to losing the Constantine viewers, viewers who don't like Ray, and viewers discouraged by perceived hints that Oliver and Laurel might be reuniting, the special airing of The Voice opposite Arrow this week (instead of Mysteries of Laura on NBC) probably hurt Arrow's ratings the most because it drew some live viewers away from Arrow. 

 

Given all the recent real life Gwen Stefani drama (she's dating Blake, and news broke this week that her ex Gavin had been having an affair with their nanny during their marriage and that said nanny had been SWFing Gwen), some people might've tuned in to The Voice live to see if there was any reaction from Gwen (like gaping at an accident). 

 

So it'll be interesting to see Arrow's live + 7 day recording stats and also to see next week's Arrow ratings. (Next week, Mysteries of Laura will return to its regular slot on NBC opposite Arrow.)

Edited November 13, 2015 by tv echo

[Betweenthisandthat]

It's funny, I thought people tuned in to see characters and storylines they want to see. So last week people tuned in to see last week's episode based on how it was advertised and its storylines, and fewer people tuned into see this week's episode based on content, how it was advertised. That's how I watch television, for the overall story and what each week brings to it.  I haven't been a regular viewer this season, but I watched last week's episode and watched parts of this week although this recent episode wasn't that memorable to me.  

 

Competition probably has a lot to do with it as well as the natural fluctuations of ratings week to week.  

 

At the end of the day though, has charting which characters bring in ratings vs. those who don't really changed the course of the show?  What purpose does it have?  Are the people behind the scenes doing the same thing?  If no one character is bringing the show's ratings down drastically, I fail to see the point of it.  The conclusions come out much too biased.  

[dtissagirl]

At the end of the day though, has charting which characters bring in ratings vs. those who don't really changed the course of the show?  What purpose does it have?  Are the people behind the scenes doing the same thing?

 

This is a network thing, not a showrunner thing -- but yes, the CW executives are gonna be looking at the trends in ratings and give out instructions to the shows to course-correct storlyines, nix relationships, elevate characters' screentimes, etc. It happens all the time.

 

And I'm pretty certain the O/L rating trend influenced the switch from Laurel to Felicity as main love interest, yes. It's not the only factor that influenced it, but the CW in particular has been very very attuned to how the relationships in all of their shows affect the trends in ratings. And then they ask the show to address it. They've been doing this wrt to relationships for A LONG TIME, btw -- it goes back to the WB years.

[Angel12d]

At the end of the day no one will ever know what makes on episode rating higher than another. There are patterns, and promos I'm sure comes into it for some viewers but we'll just never know. But there's seriously no harm in debating or wondering about it. 

Edited November 13, 2015 by Angel12d

[apinknightmare]

I don't remember the promos for this. Apart from the Olicity/Felicity flood on Wednesday, were they even mentioned in the others?

[Angel12d]

I don't remember the promos for this. Apart from the Olicity/Felicity flood on Wednesday, were they even mentioned in the others?

 

Not at all. It was all about Ray.

[Chaser]

I don't remember the promos for this. Apart from the Olicity/Felicity flood on Wednesday, were they even mentioned in the others?

The only trailer that starred Felicity was the one from AUS. The others were Ray and bloodlust Sara. Even the CW Twitter was selling it as Operation Save Ray. If you were a general viewer going off promos, then you would have no idea what the episode was about. The only ones that would know it was a Felicity/Olicity episode were the ones in the internet fandom, looking for the clips and teases. 

 

If we are tying promos to ratings, this says more about Ray and Sara then it does about Felicity and Olicity too me.

[apinknightmare]

Thanks. I was just wondering because I didn't watch anything apart from Arrow for the past couple of weeks, so I wasn't sure which promos were actually being broadcast.

[tarotx]

https://youtu.be/JVY3bq1Ittw

4.6 promo was all about Ray

We had a 0.6 in the 18-34 demo in the fast nationals. We usually have a 0.8.

Edited November 13, 2015 by tarotx

[lemotomato]

Except that 18-49 is what's always reported, and, from what I've been repeatedly told, the most important demo. And it stayed the same as the episodes pre-Constantine. 

 

I wouldn't worry unless there are a couple episodes in a row with drops in the demo, which is not going to happen in 4A at least because they've cleverly plopped the crossover episode right before the mid season break. 

Edited November 13, 2015 by lemotomato

[Chaser]

The demos are consistent from the previous year, so there isn't anything to freak about. It's just normal rating talk. It happens when they are high and when they are low. 

 

I personally find it all interesting. 

[tarotx]

18-49 is the important demo. We had 0.9. But 18-24 I was told is Arrow's live same day weak spot. And this week it was pretty low. I think this age is the most likely to stream though probably will watch a live show. So I'm thinking our over all ratings probably were affected by the voice more than anything.

Except that 18-49 is what's always reported, and, from what I've been repeatedly told, the most important demo. And it stayed the same as the episodes pre-Constantine.

Edited November 13, 2015 by tarotx

[WaitandHope]

Is the crossover going to be Thanksgiving week (which are the last two days of sweeps, I think) on Nov 24 and 25th or will it be the first week of December, which is where they aired it last year?   Even though the Wednesday before T-giving is traditionally the last day of fall sweeps, many shows don't air that night because I think the networks have decided ratings fall off a little because family-time begins.   (This is not my family experience, where we generally look for anything on TV during these few days to give us something to do, but alas).   And don't even get me started on all the Holiday specials that air in the month of December and bore me to tears...

[apinknightmare]

There's a week break after next week's ep.

[SmallScreenDiva]

I don't remember the promos for this. Apart from the Olicity/Felicity flood on Wednesday, were they even mentioned in the others?

 

Nope. Nothing. Nada. Not until Wednesday morning. And that was all online. All the other promos were about Ray and several shots of everybody in a mask. Several offline friends were happily surprised when they watched because they were resigned to it being a Ray (and to a lesser extent a Sara) show based on the 30-second promo the network was running on TV all week.

 

Edited: Actually, I should say Felicity was shown looking for Ray. No hints that this was going to be her episode. Or that Olicity would play a huge part.

Edited November 13, 2015 by SmallScreenDiva

[tarotx]

I can't find the 30 second promo but I think this one is the one most fans would have have seen?

Edited November 13, 2015 by tarotx

[SmallScreenDiva]

Yep, that's it with maybe a few more action shots.

[Chaser]

I was looking for some Felicity promo. I wanted to see Donna. I was disappointed we didn't anything beyond "Ray!"

[tangerine95]

I remember being annoyed by the promo for this episode.I knew it would be a Felicity and Olicity heavy episode but the promos didn't reflect that at all.It was all about Ray and shots of masks fighting which wasn't what the episode focused on at all.We only got stuff about Felicity and Mama Smoak on Wednesday and its was online clips which only the fandom really looks for.I don't get why do that since the episodes they use Felicity or Olicity to promote usually get them high ratings.I understand they have to push the LoT stuff but if season 3 should have showed them anything its that forcing a spinoff at the expense of arrow characters always backfires and people were already getting sick of all the set up.

[dtissagirl]

If I were to guess: the standing orders at the CW PR department for Arrow promotion is -- TV promo is action packed + masks and villains and spinoffs, to entice male demo, which is the #1 priority. Online promo can vary according to the episode, but feeding stuff into the O/F fangirls is encouraged because they do free promo out of scraps.

[Chaser]

Viewers may not like tater tots.

[kismet]

Nope. Nothing. Nada. Not until Wednesday morning. And that was all online. All the other promos were about Ray and several shots of everybody in a mask. Several offline friends were happily surprised when they watched because they were resigned to it being a Ray (and to a lesser extent a Sara) show based on the 30-second promo the network was running on TV all week.

 

Edited: Actually, I should say Felicity was shown looking for Ray. No hints that this was going to be her episode. Or that Olicity would play a huge part.

I would consider myself a more invested viewer, I thought I was getting a Ray episode with a side of Sara. I didn't really even have a lot of time to check out the stuff online Weds, so I was completely thrown by the lack of RP in this ep. Happy, but thrown. I was very pleasantly surprised by how the episode turned out being less about Ray & Sara and completely about FS & Olicity. I watch episodes regardless, but I could see how some casual viewers might not care or like RP and tune over to the Voice to watch the Blake/Gwen drama. Likewise, I could see some extreme viewers who would purposely not watch because of RP.

 

But I think that's why the trend over the course of multiple episodes is more important and not the results of the week to week. There are always going to be characters that pull in or push audiences away because of the characters/plots. If the overall trend is stable than I think the show is fine. I do think the networks and the advertisers look for deeper trends with characters and plots. That is why the data is important from the ratings & other factors like streaming and social media. But one episode is not going to make or break it for a character or show. But if there exists a data based trend then I think it matters, which is why we have seen some of the changes to the shows that we have.

[SmallScreenDiva]

I would consider myself a more invested viewer, I thought I was getting a Ray episode with a side of Sara. I didn't really even have a lot of time to check out the stuff online Weds, so I was completely thrown by the lack of RP in this ep. Happy, but thrown. I was very pleasantly surprised by how the episode turned out being less about Ray & Sara and completely about FS & Olicity. I watch episodes regardless, but I could see how some casual viewers might not care or like RP and tune over to the Voice to watch the Blake/Gwen drama. Likewise, I could see some extreme viewers who would purposely not watch because of RP.

 

But I think that's why the trend over the course of multiple episodes is more important and not the results of the week to week. There are always going to be characters that pull in or push audiences away because of the characters/plots. If the overall trend is stable than I think the show is fine. I do think the networks and the advertisers look for deeper trends with characters and plots. That is why the data is important from the ratings & other factors like streaming and social media. But one episode is not going to make or break it for a character or show. But if there exists a data based trend then I think it matters, which is why we have seen some of the changes to the shows that we have.

 

Yup, that's what I said upthread. When it comes to ratings, trends are the key. The posted you quoted was just in response to a question about what was being promoted for that ep.

[kismet]

Yup, that's what I said upthread. When it comes to ratings, trends are the key. The posted you quoted was just in response to a question about what was being promoted for that ep.

Cool. Guess it was just my long worded way of agreeing with you :)

[GreatAtBoats]

While they had the same demo, 4x03 was promoted as an OTA-heavy episode and had lower viewership, by the hundreds of thousands, than 4x04, which was promoted as Lance-heavy.

But that means nothing, right?

[EmilyBettFan]

We have many episodes of either Felicity centric, OTA centric and Diggle centric that have done well.

Also we have had Laurel centric that have flopped. Everyone has had good and okay ratings on this show.

It all comes down to promoting right, what else is playing on television. They never promoted this episode right. That's what it comes down to.

[statsgirl]

 

If I were to guess: the standing orders at the CW PR department for Arrow promotion is -- TV promo is action packed + masks and villains and spinoffs, to entice male demo, which is the #1 priority.

It boggles my mind that they are still basing decisions on the demo.rather than total viewers.  There was never any evidence that younger people are more likely to change brands based on ads (that was something put out by ABC when their viewers were small but younger) and in the current economic condition younger viewers often have less disposable income than the 50+ crowd, and women still make most of the buying decisions..

 

Sometimes the corporate world is beyond me.

Edited November 13, 2015 by statsgirl

[lemotomato]

While they had the same demo, 4x03 was promoted as an OTA-heavy episode and had lower viewership, by the hundreds of thousands, than 4x04, which was promoted as Lance-heavy.

But that means nothing, right?

Actually, the promotion for 4x03 did NOT reveal it was an OTA episode. The network promos for 4x03 (1, 2) and the preview comic focused on the one-episode villain Double Down. The preview stills split focused on the Nanda Parbat shenanigans with Laurel and Thea and Star City. 

 

So no, we don't know what the effect an OTA promotion has on an episode because we haven't seen it happen yet.

Edited November 13, 2015 by lemotomato

[Happy Harpy]

It boggles my mind that they are still basing decisions on the demo.rather than total viewers.  There was never any evidence that younger people are more likely to change brands based on ads (that was something put out by ABC when their viewers were small but younger) and in the current economic condition younger viewers often have less disposable income than the 50+ crowd, and women still make most of the buying decisions..

 

Sometimes the corporate world is beyond me.

Preach it! More eyeballs are more eyeballs, more wallets are more wallets and older demographics generally have a plumper one.

It's so disconnected with reality, imo.

[apinknightmare]

While they had the same demo, 4x03 was promoted as an OTA-heavy episode and had lower viewership, by the hundreds of thousands, than 4x04, which was promoted as Lance-heavy.

But that means nothing, right?

The episode preceding 4x03 also ended with a main character digging up her sister's corpse, but I'm sure OTA is the main reason for the decline in the following ep, LOL.

ETA: that is totally not spec as to why people did or didn't tune in-as I wrote above, I think that's pointless.

Edited November 13, 2015 by apinknightmare

[dtissagirl]

It boggles my mind that they are still basing decisions on the demo.rather than total viewers.  There was never any evidence that younger people are more likely to change brands based on ads (that was something put out by ABC when their viewers were small but younger) and in the current economic condition younger viewers often have less disposable income than the 50+ crowd, and women still make most of the buying decisions..

 

What makes me crazy is -- younger people aren't even watching the TV promos, because THEY AREN'T WATCHING LIVE TV. Compounded with the fact that the CW marketing dept is broke, and that Arrow really doesn't seem to be a priority there, you end up with promos for a lowest common denominator subset of M18-49 -- 20 seconds of super duper generic oh look it's a superhero show, so here's the villain for next week, here's the action sequence that eats most of the show's budget every week, so we gotta show it to you, here are the masks. Cue Arrow title card.

[EmilyBettFan]

Exactly why they show the action scenes all the time. Because it takes the most money to make. So annoyed by that. This show isn't all about action. Even in season 1 episode 1 was it Greg Berlanti who said the dinner scene was his favourite?

[BkWurm1]

Viewers may not like tater tots.

Slightly off topic but twice now since Wednesday I have enjoyed some tater tots (not so subliminal advertising)  I keep looking at them and imagining Ray before I dip them in ketchup and chow down.  You'd think that would put me off them but not so far!

[tv echo]

In its special Wednesday time slot this week, The Voice (NBC) got a 2.4 and 10.14.
http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2015/11/12/wednesday-final-ratings-nov-11-2015/

 

In the same time slot the week before, The Mysteries of Laura (NBC) got a 1.2 and 7.00.
http://www.spoilertv.com/2015/11/final-adjusted-tv-ratings-for-wednesday.html

 

So NBC doubled its 18-49 demo by replacing Mysteries of Laura with The Voice.

Edited November 14, 2015 by tv echo