Ratings And Scheduling: I Can't Do This Alone

[Aeryn13]

I think they earn the same salary, it was just reported for Jared at one earlier point to be one sum and years later reported for Jensen to be another sum. At both times, what the other J made wasn`t disclosed. To me, that just means they got the usual raise with signing new contracts.

Quote

For all we know they may have already made those concessions to keep it on the air now.  Maybe they have traded salary for time off.

Honestly, I don`t think that is happening. Contractually, their salaries rise and screentime commitment lowers. They have that power at that point. And as long as the show makes the studio money and the network wants it around, they will get those concessions, time and money. Same way the main three of the Big Bang cast could say "pay us each a million or say goodbye to your show" and they got what they wanted. 

At some point, the equation will not work out favourably anymore and that is when it will end. Or, alternatively, when the actors say no regardless of profitablity.   

[Wayward Son]

41 minutes ago, catrox14 said:

For all we know they may have already made those concessions to keep it on the air now.  Maybe they have traded salary for time off.

You might find of interest an article I linked in the media thread that discusses how much money the show earns for Vancouver.

I'll go and check that link out :). 

 

28 minutes ago, Aeryn13 said:

Honestly, I don`t think that is happening. Contractually, their salaries rise and screentime commitment lowers. They have that power at that point. And as long as the show makes the studio money and the network wants it around, they will get those concessions, time and money. Same way the main three of the Big Bang cast could say "pay us each a million or say goodbye to your show" and they got what they wanted. 

At some point, the equation will not work out favourably anymore and that is when it will end. Or, alternatively, when the actors say no regardless of profitablity.   

I would have to agree with you @Aeryn13 that there is no sign of such concessions being made at the moment. The 0.6-0.7 average the show had going into season 12 was more than satisfactory for the CW.

Although, speaking of the Big Bang Theory apparently the main three have accepted salary cuts in order to help get some of their coworkers a higher wage as the network couldn't afford or wouldn't pay all of them the same 1 million wage. So there are times when actors have been known to make sacrifices to keep a show on the air. 

It all depends on whether if the show reached that point would J2 be willing to take a cut to keep the show on the air, or would they just say "we've had a long long run let's call it a day".

Edited March 12, 2017 by Wayward Son

[FlickChick]

Maybe Perez can save them some money by writing Dean out of the episode entirely instead of just half of it. :(  (Sorry, I know this isn't the place, but I couldn't resist)

[Casseiopeia]

5 hours ago, Wayward Son said:

I'll go and check that link out :). 

 

I would have to agree with you @Aeryn13 that there is no sign of such concessions being made at the moment. The 0.6-0.7 average the show had going into season 12 was more than satisfactory for the CW.

Although, speaking of the Big Bang Theory apparently the main three have accepted salary cuts in order to help get some of their coworkers a higher wage as the network couldn't afford or wouldn't pay all of them the same 1 million wage. So there are times when actors have been known to make sacrifices to keep a show on the air. 

It all depends on whether if the show reached that point would J2 be willing to take a cut to keep the show on the air, or would they just say "we've had a long long run let's call it a day".

Jared mentioned at Las Vegas con afternoon panel the idea of doing a shortened Gilmore Girls/Netflix type show instead of the usual 23 eps for the CW.  S13 will be a regular season but I am curious to see how S14 will go.  300 eps is midseason after that I could see Supernatural turning into  a special anual mini-series for either Netflix or the CW.  In that case I could see the show going on for a few more seasons as long as the fans and the J's are up for it.

[MysteryGuest]

4 minutes ago, Casseiopeia said:

I could see Supernatural turning into  a special anual mini-series for either Netflix or the CW.

I would love if Netflix would do something like this...better writers, more adult content, etc.  I just don't see it happening, unfortunately.  But it's fun to dream.

[SueB]

I think they've stabilized the costs of production and I wouldn't be surprised if the boys kept their salaries the same in order to make M2 regulars.

Regarding Pelegrino, I suspect that's part of his deal to guarantee his presence for specific episodes in S12.  Like Allison Mack for S10 of Smallville. She was in the credits when she was in an episode and NOT in the credits when not.  Having BOTH Pellegrino and Sam Smith in episodes does increase the episode costs but they may have budgeted to have one or the other in all episodes (at least on the back half).  Just like Rick Springfield wasn't cheap on the front end either.  

Lucifer's Baby Mama, OTOH, seems like a Canadian regular actress so probably not outrageously expensive. 

[Wayward Son]

14 minutes ago, Casseiopeia said:

Jared mentioned at Las Vegas con afternoon panel the idea of doing a shortened Gilmore Girls/Netflix type show instead of the usual 23 eps for the CW.  S13 will be a regular season but I am curious to see how S14 will go.  300 eps is midseason after that I could see Supernatural turning into  a special anual mini-series for either Netflix or the CW.  In that case I could see the show going on for a few more seasons as long as the fans and the J's are up for it.

I think it all depends on the ratings. If I remember correctly, at the moment Supernatural and the DC shows are the only full length shows on the CW. The rest of their shows are all shortened and have 10-16 episodes. So if we were to keep a series low of 0.5 for the next few years then the seasons would continue to be full length. However, if we were to drop to a 0.4 there is a good chance we'd get a shortened season order next year instead. 

Edited March 12, 2017 by Wayward Son

[Geordiegirl1967]

On 12/03/2017 at 2:12 PM, Wayward Son said:

From what I can gather Jensen makes $175,000 per episode and Jared makes $125,000

This is not correct. They earn exactly the same per episode. They insisted on this from the very earliest days and are on record confirming it on a number of occasions. 

18 hours ago, SueB said:

I wouldn't be surprised if the boys kept their salaries the same in order to make M2 regulars.

Why on earth would they do that? This is a business not a charity. It CW / WB want more regulars they have to find the $ to pay them from the shows budget. I see no reason at all why the 2 stars would or should sacrifice their own salaries to pay other actors. This isn't some indy passion project. It is a network TV show that makes a LOT of money. 

[MysteryGuest]

I'm sure Jensen makes more when he's directing during the season, but that could easily be paid as a bonus or something similar which would be separate from his normal salary.

[Wayward Son]

8 minutes ago, Geordiegirl1967 said:

This is not correct. They earn exactly the same per episode. They insisted on this from the very earliest days and are on record confirming it on a number of occasions. 

Yeah, a few people have mentioned that already, but thanks for the further clarification :)

In regards to Misha and Mark...  It is quite possible that Jensen and Jared want more regulars just as much as, if not more than,  the network. They've spoken in the past of their desire to get more time off now they're married with expanding families. 

I'm not saying such a thing did happen just that it could be a possibility one day if ratings fell enough the CW were looking to cut the shows costs. 

Edited March 13, 2017 by Wayward Son

[Geordiegirl1967]

17 minutes ago, Wayward Son said:

In regards to Misha and Mark...  It is quite possible that Jensen and Jared want more regulars just as much as, if not more than,  the network. They've spoken in the past of their desire to get more time off now they're married with expanding families.

If they want more time off (as they have clearly managed to negotiate to date given the huge drop in joint screen time over the first few seasons) they will negotiate this and, yes, may have to trade some salary to get that. If that leaves the network with time to fill in the eps they will look to get guest actors or more regulars. What I was saying is that I highly doubt the 2 things are linked by the Js in their minds or negotiations.

[Aeryn13]

Quote

In regards to Misha and Mark...  It is quite possible that Jensen and Jared want more regulars just as much as, if not more than,  the network. They've spoken in the past of their desire to get more time off now they're married with expanding families. 

I think they very much want this because it is the only longterm effective way for J2 to limit their screentime. You can only do so many scenes with the guest stars of an episode. And a true "bottle episode", you get away with once per Season. Regulars solve that problem.

It has become clear to me that "reduced workload" is a contractual stipulation for every time they sign a new contract. Maybe the network/studio is gonna think about shorter Seasons and try to lure them with "okay, you will have to overall work more on individual episodes than the last few years but get two to three extra months of hiatus".

The show is still doing just fine in the ratings, very steady overall, but everyone knows the show won`t be feasible if in the future the leads only want to work 2 days an episode overall aka 10 minutes screentime but get paid more than three other CW leads combined. Ratings wouldn`t hold then. The question is when that day comes or if someone pulls the plug before that. It`s still easier to go out with some dignity by announcing a mutually decided "final Season".

[Wayward Son]

Yeah I agree with you on all of that. As I mentioned in a previous post based I speculate the following would occur in future contract negotiations if ratings slipped to certain levels. Since contracts have already been signed for thirteen this would apply to negotiations for season 14.

Ratings stay the same i.e 0.5 - 0.6 (definite renewal) everything stays the same. 

Ratings slip to regular 0.4s (Definite renewal): Behind the scene stuff stays the same but they'd reduce the season to 13 - 16 episodes. 

Rating slips to 0.3 (Possible Renewal): The show could stay on the air but it would depend on the cast and crews willingness to adapt to budget cuts. I would say there's definitely be a shorter season, J2 would likely have to take a pay cut, M2 would face demotion to guest stars with far fewer appearances along with an overall decreased production budget. 

Ratings slip to 0.2 (Definite Cancellation): The show just wouldn't be feasible at this point. They'd likely do a Nikita and give us a 6 - 8 episode final season to wrap things up. 

Edited March 13, 2017 by Wayward Son

[Pondlass1]

This has never been an ensemble type series. It's always revolved around the two brothers with a lot of long hours and hard work from the Js. Cas and Crowley actors were taken on as regulars and threaded into stories. 

Now 12 years later things have changed. The Js have growing families. They have more negotiation clout. They want more time off. 

Unfortunately we no longer have imaginative, skilled writers. The Js absence is now garing. Bad editing decisions and the lack of compelling stories for the peripheral characters Cas and Crowley also add to the disjointed episodes of late. Cas contemplating returning to boring heaven... Crowley spurring with lucifer. It's old stale story telling and removes them from the ongoing Sam and Dean plot instead of weaving them in  

Clever writing could have the Js working less hours and the Ms working more, and us the audience not even noticing 

[Geordiegirl1967]

5 hours ago, Pondlass1 said:

Unfortunately we no longer have imaginative, skilled writers. The Js absence is now glaring.

I agree. This season in particular, after the exodus of experienced writers since s11 this has been very noticeable.

5 hours ago, Pondlass1 said:

Clever writing could have the Js working less hours and the Ms working more, and us the audience not even noticing

I highly doubt that. Could they do a better job? Of course. But IMO the show is only truly magic when Sam & Dean are on screen together. And this has been happening less and less over the years. No amount of even genius writing can replace that. I'd rather watch Sam and Dean do their laundry than watch anything they could come up with for Cas or Crowley.

[Pondlass1]

@Geordiegirl1967 Oh believe me...I would watch Sam and (especially) Dean do laundry for hours. ? And I have no particular love for Cas or Crowley.  

You won't agree... But I would have no problem with a Dean centric or Sam centric episode every once in a while. They don't have to go on every job together and it would provide for family time 

[Geordiegirl1967]

6 hours ago, Pondlass1 said:

But I would have no problem with a Dean centric or Sam centric episode every once in a while

I have no problem with the occasional ep that's either Sam or Dean centric or where they are separated so long as the focus of the story and characters is still on the relationship. So for example if the first 2 eps of s12 had been about Dean frantically searching for Sam while Sam was shown depressed and not caring what the BMoL did to him because he thought Dean was dead, with a proper emotional payoff when they were reunited - Dean relieved, Sam ecstatic and amazed to see Dean alive, hugs all around etc I would have been beyond thrilled even if they only spent 2 or 3 minutes on screen together in the whole 2 eps.

What I cannot stand are Sam or Dean centric eps or stories where they are separated that fall into one of these categories;

1) Where the Js need for more family time is blatantly showing through the cracks of a story that makes no sense i.e. eps with phrases like 'you go alone to check out that incredibly dangerous sounding lead while I go alone to talk to someone who is probably a monster and will kill me'. I get that this is necessary sometimes, but it could be handled better. There was more meaningful communication and emotion between the brothers in some phone conversations in the early years than we get in whole seasons these days.

2) Where the separation results from ooc, contrived bro angst. I am SOOO over this nonsense. I hated it from s4 onwards but it has got worse and worse over the years culminating in the appalling Carver years. Dabb is at least not actively destroying the brothers bond but nor is he paying it any attention. It has been woefully underwritten this season.

3) Where the separation is divisive between Dean and Sam eg Dean goes off with Cas/Crowley/Benny/any other not-Sam character that the anti Sam/anti bro bond crowd go wild over. Cue comments like 'he's a better brother than Sam ever was', 'they need to grow as separate people'. 'its healthy' yadda yadda. 

4) Where one of them is not the real Dean or Sam - so I hated Demon Dean, Soulless Sam, Gadreel Sam, MoC Dean etc etc. Because even when they are together there is no bond there. And when they are separated the extreme ends of the fandom start begging for more because all they want is their fave all the time.

Oops sorry - hit a nerve there.

[SueB]

Back to Back SPN tonight.  'Stuck in the Middle With You' and 'Family Feud'. 

Odd.  But maybe we get a preview tonight. 

[catrox14]

2 minutes ago, SueB said:

Back to Back SPN tonight.  'Stuck in the Middle With You' and 'Family Feud'. 

Odd.  But maybe we get a preview tonight. 

I was hoping we'd get Regarding Dean again. Oh well.

It will be a 5 minute Riverdale sneak peek. LOL

Edited March 24, 2017 by catrox14

[Morrigan2575]

Woot! Go SPN!

If these hold, SPN is #3 for the week, ahead of LoT and Arrow and came back from a 2 week break with a ratings bump.

[Wayward Son]

17 minutes ago, Morrigan2575 said:

Woot! Go SPN!

If these hold, SPN is #3 for the week, ahead of LoT and Arrow and came back from a 2 week break with a ratings bump.

I'm glad to see that 0.5 will hopefully not be the new normal. I must see if I can find the unrounded rating! 

[Wayward Son]

The unrounded rating and the half hours 

Supernatural: 0.594 (0.609 0.578)

While an adjustment down is possible Id say we have a good chance of maintaining the 0.6 :)

[Wayward Son]

Finals are in 

 

1.71 million viewers and 0.6 demo :)

[Wayward Son]

Ouch. 

Edited April 7, 2017 by Wayward Son

[catrox14]

Those are peculiar numbers. that's a big gap between the 0.5 to 0.7 between the demos.

[catrox14]

If you click the link in the tweet you'll see that Supernatural is 3rd in SM ratings for last night

Just behind Scandal and Grey's Anatomy! YAY!!!

Edited April 7, 2017 by catrox14

[Wayward Son]

Unrounded Ratings and half hours

 

Supernatural .......................... 0.526 ... (0.516 ... 0.535)
 

It is interesting to see that people seem to have liked what they seen! The rating actually went up during the second half hour unlike most eps where it goes down. 

Edited April 7, 2017 by Wayward Son

[Wayward Son]

Finals were 1.57 million viewers and a 0.5 demo. 

[Geordiegirl1967]

18 hours ago, catrox14 said:

Those are peculiar numbers. that's a big gap between the 0.5 to 0.7 between the demos

I wondered about that. Does it mean that a lot of 50-54 year olds are watching? Someone in that age bracket now (which networks couldn't care less about - it's all based on the 18-49 demo) would've been 38-42 when the show started. If you have a 12 year old show with a loyal audience it is inevitable that a fair chunk of them will, by now, have aged out of the demo that matters. While an 18 year old now would've only been 6 when the show started. So less likely to be a fan? It's a theory that could partly explain this odd demo breakdown and some of the gradual fall in the 18-49 demo over time. 

[Wayward Son]

6 minutes ago, Geordiegirl1967 said:

I wondered about that. Does it mean that a lot of 50-54 year olds are watching? Someone in that age bracket now (which networks couldn't care less about - it's all based on the 18-49 demo) would've been 38-42 when the show started. If you have a 12 year old show with a loyal audience it is inevitable that a fair chunk of them will, by now, have aged out of the demo that matters. While an 18 year old now would've only been 6 when the show started. So less likely to be a fan? It's a theory that could partly explain this odd demo breakdown and some of the gradual fall in the 18-49 demo over time. 

That's what I think it might be too @Geordiegirl1967! I also think that a lot of the younger original viewers will have also moved out of the 18-24 year range. For instance I've been watching since season 2. I was 15 then and I've just turned 25 this year. I know several friends who are also in the same position. 

 

Of course I'm neither American or a Neilson family so I personally have no bearing on ratings, but there could be several American in their mid twenties who have been watching since they were teens like my friends and I :)

Edited April 8, 2017 by Wayward Son

[Wayward Son]

I was just thinking... could the lower ratings simply be due to the time slot? Thursdays at 8 is one of the toughest spot there is if not the toughest! The show is competiting against Sports and Drama Juggernauts like The Big Bang Theory and Grey's Anatomy. Sports could be stealing a lot of male viewers (it skews heavily male) and the likes of Grey Anatomy could be eating into the female viewers (it skews heavily female) 

Edited April 8, 2017 by Wayward Son

[catrox14]

57 minutes ago, Wayward Son said:

I was just thinking... could the lower ratings simply be due to the time slot? Thursdays at 8 is one of the toughest spot there is if not the toughest! The show is competiting against Sports and Drama Juggernauts like The Big Bang Theory and Grey's Anatomy. Sports could be stealing a lot of male viewers (it skews heavily male) and the likes of Grey Anatomy could be eating into the female viewers (it skews heavily female) 

It is possible that Opening Week for the MLB hurt. There are a lot of women that watch sports too (ME) and specifically a lot of female baseball fans.  Thus far they weathered the storm of football and basketball. I'm not entirely sure there is a big crossover of Grey's Anatomy viewers and SPN. I could be wrong too LOL

[AwesomO4000]

8 hours ago, catrox14 said:

I'm not entirely sure there is a big crossover of Grey's Anatomy viewers and SPN.

I don't think I've ever seen a single episode of Grey's Anatomy. I always assumed it was a soapier and inferior version of E.R. I tend to like my "medical dramas" a little darker and/or edgier for some reason. E.R. was good, and I watched all of its run. And it had its share of dark story arcs,* but I liked the grittier St. Elsewhere even more.

So basically, I find myself asking "That show is still on?" every time I notice Grey's Anatomy in the television guide. But I'm sure a lot of people say the same about Supernatural, too.

* That scene with Carter gravely injured and forced to hide under a hospital bed while seeing a dead Lucy under the next cot comes to mind.

[Wayward Son]

12 hours ago, catrox14 said:

It is possible that Opening Week for the MLB hurt. There are a lot of women that watch sports too (ME) and specifically a lot of female baseball fans.  Thus far they weathered the storm of football and basketball. I'm not entirely sure there is a big crossover of Grey's Anatomy viewers and SPN. I could be wrong too LOL

Hey, Catrox sorry if it came across as if I was saying only males watch sports and only females watch Grey's. I was just referring to the demo break downs where the shows are revealed to be heavily leaning towards a particular gender. Of course this doesn't mean that only males watch sports just that it's more males than females. Sorry if I caused any insult. 

[FlickChick]

I'm hoping this falls under scheduling (don't know where else to put this) - but do we have an official word about how many episodes we are having this season? 22 or 23?

[SueB]

23

Episodes 22 AND 23 are two separate (but obviously connected) episodes that will both play on May 18th, the last Thursday of sweeps week. One at 8pm, followed by the other at 9pm.

[FlickChick]

14 minutes ago, SueB said:

23

Episodes 22 AND 23 are two separate (but obviously connected) episodes that will both play on May 18th, the last Thursday of sweeps week. One at 8pm, followed by the other at 9pm.

Thanks, Sue! Looking forward to seeing how they end this season.

[Wayward Son]

[Geordiegirl1967]

Ouch. Down at 0.5 again. Hope this isn't the new normal. 

[catrox14]

Dang, that's no bueno

[Morrigan2575]

On 4/10/2017 at 6:16 PM, SueB said:

23

Episodes 22 AND 23 are two separate (but obviously connected) episodes that will both play on May 18th, the last Thursday of sweeps week. One at 8pm, followed by the other at 9pm.

Oh wow getting a 2 hour finale. Cool.

[DittyDotDot]

And yet, still kicking Riverdale's ass. So, not all bad. ;)

I was hoping that first .5 would be an abnormality, but I still think we'll see those numbers rise--or maybe I'm just a hopeful gal--seems like the MoTW episodes really don't draw in the audience this time of year. Cass will be back in the next one and the mystery of where he's been will be a draw, I think. Plus, movement on the big arcs should help too.

Well, aren't I just turning into the resident Pollyanna?

[Morrigan2575]

16 minutes ago, catrox14 said:

Dang, that's no bueno

Arrow pulls the same ratings. In fact Arrow has a 0.65, LoT has a 0.64 and SPN is 0.61, they're all very close in ratings.

Riverdale, Reign, The Orignals, iZombie, The 100, JTV, CEG as well as No Tomorrow, and Frequency (both probably cancelled) all score lower than the oldest series on the network.

The only 2 shows with substantially better ratings are Flash and Supergirl. 

Would I like higher? Absolutely.  Are SPN ratings bad? Not in the least.

[catrox14]

10 minutes ago, Morrigan2575 said:

Arrow pulls the same ratings. In fact Arrow has a 0.65, LoT has a 0.64 and SPN is 0.61, they're all very close in ratings.

Riverdale, Reign, The Orignals, iZombie, The 100, JTV, CEG as well as No Tomorrow, and Frequency (both probably cancelled) all score lower than the oldest series on the network.

The only 2 shows with substantially better ratings are Flash and Supergirl. 

Would I like higher? Absolutely.  Are SPN ratings bad? Not in the least.

That 0.5 in the demo is worrisome. I worry about the 0.5 for Arrow as well. it's a downward trend in the demo that matters. It doesn't matter since it's already been renewed by the network but it doesn't strike  me as a good thing either.

[Idahoforspn]

 The actual numbers of people keep dropping though. There are a number of folks, including me, that are upset with the writing and don't make the same effort to watch live any more.

[Morrigan2575]

43 minutes ago, catrox14 said:

That 0.5 in the demo is worrisome. I worry about the 0.5 for Arrow as well. it's a downward trend in the demo that matters. It doesn't matter since it's already been renewed by the network but it doesn't strike  me as a good thing either.

It doesn't matter what the individual ratings are what matters is how they compare to the network as a whole. This is why I pointed out exactly where SPN stands compared to the rest of the network. 

[Morrigan2575]

31 minutes ago, Idahoforspn said:

 The actual numbers of people keep dropping though. There are a number of folks, including me, that are upset with the writing and don't make the same effort to watch live any more.

Nope, SPN has had one of the lowest drops on the CW.

Supergirl dropped 55% granted, that included a network switch

I-Zombie dropped 42% (so far only 2 episode)

Crazy Ex Girlfriend dropped 35%

Arrow and The 100 both dropped 34%

Reign dropped 33%

The Vampire Diaries dropped 25%

Flash dropped 22%

Legends of Tomorrow dropped 20%

The Originals dropped 18% (so far, only 4 episodes)

Supernatural dropped 15%

JTV dripped 2% 

So not only is SPN among the higher rated shows on the network but it's also showing one of the lowest amounts of y2r drops.

[catrox14]

9 minutes ago, Morrigan2575 said:

It doesn't matter what the individual ratings are what matters is how they compare to the network as a whole. This is why I pointed out exactly where SPN stands compared to the rest of the network. 

I know. Even on the CW, even as Michael Pedowizt likes the show and says it will go as long as the boys want it to go, if the overall viewers continue to bleed from that important demo at some point the affiliates may not care if there are not enough eyeballs on the ads. Even with the CW willingness to look at other t besides live ratings the trend is downward for both Arrow and SPN. that's what I am

con earned with.

iM not bashing the show BTW. I'll be sad if and when it ends. I want it to do well and better. I'm just talking about what I find worriesomw.

2 minutes ago, Morrigan2575 said:

So not only is SPN among the higher rated shows on the network but it's also showing one of the lowest amounts of y2r drops.

That is true but it's still dropping. It's just dropping less than the other shows on the CW

[Morrigan2575]

1 hour ago, catrox14 said:

That is true but it's still dropping. It's just dropping less than the other shows on the CW

ALL shows drop on EVERY network EVERY year.  What matters is how much a show drops compared to the rest of the network. Which is (again) why I provided the y2y drops for the CW.

Again SPN is is no danger of getting canceled by the CW for ratings and, it's in no danger from The WB since SPN DVDs sell like hot cakes (SPN makes WB a lot of $).

IF SPN ends with S13 it will be because the boys dont want to sign on for another year. IF it does end with 13 it will get a big huge final season announcement at Upfronts, SDCC or Summer TCAs.

At this point in time based on the SPN ratings the only thing we need to worry about is if Jared and Jensen want to keep doing the show. 

Edited April 14, 2017 by Morrigan2575

[Wayward Son]

I agree with @Morrigan2575 that the show is currently in no danger of cancellation. In my opinion we would need to drop to a 0.2 demo for that to happen. I also don't think it will  end due to the decision of Jared and Jensen as they've already discussed a desire to reach 300 episodes. 

However, what I could see happen is that if the show drops further during season 13 (to the 0.3 - 0.4 range) the season 14 order would be cut from the usual 23 to 13-16 episodes. I could also see budget cuts which would include the demotion of M3 back to guest stars (provided they're all actually still on the show by then).