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Ratings and Scheduling: Still More Numbers to Decipher


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(edited)

I'm trying to think of other TV shows that hopped to another network after being cancelled by their former one...

 

Found this juuuust after I posted...:)

 

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/gallery/cougar-town-move-southland-damages-buffy-vampire-slayer-323088/2-southland

Edited by StarBrand

aquarian1: I wish I had corresponding data for the show's promotion and when CBS aired consecutive episodes because that has to be an influence on the ratings. I rarely look for commercials but I actively searched for some sign of promos/TV spots for Person of Interest this season and it was easier to find a unicorn. Since the end of 2014 it's felt as if CBS had decided to write this show off and the lack of viewership followed suit. 

I don't know about promos, but I do have info on days between episodes.  Sometimes a longer hiatus (21-28 days) leads to an increase, sometimes a big decrease.  So your idea of promos influencing it is probably right.  The ones with increase in ratings were are "typical" breaks - over Christmas and New Years and I would think since people expect that, towards the end of the year/beginning of the new year they'd start looking for the next episode, regardless of promos.  And maybe not so much at the other times.

 

Let me see what I can put together in days between episodes...

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This show was on the wrong network I always thought. The type of people who'd love this show won't touch CBS at all as 99% of their dramas are the same. And the typical CBS crowd probably lost interest once they realized this was vastly different than what they were used to.

 

Not to mention that if it does move to the kind of network that would sign up for the show it's become, the only star they'd probably be able to afford is Amy Acker, so it can finally become explicitly the Root cybershow. I would think that would be counted a win for the viewers who want it to continue.

(edited)
Long gaps between episodes (2+ weeks) has a large negative impact on ratings.  Earlier in the season is hit or miss, probably due to promotion, but I have no proof of that.  The only time a long gap doesn't seem to decrease ratings is over Christmas/New Years.

Probably because everyone expects shows to go on hiatus over the break and come back in early January. So they know to look for it once the new year has started. Also PoI, at least, tends to leave off in the winter on a cliffhanger, so people DEFINITELY want to come back.

 

It's interesting that the trend became more pronounced once the show moved timeslots, though. As did the number of longer breaks (sigh).

 

I'm honestly surprised NBC and CBS haven't started flirting with ABC's split-season scheduling. It makes a lot of sense and, at least for the shows I watch, has tended to settle down the spring season ratings, which used to be all over the place because the spring is exemption city.

 

The article I linked about it was from TVLine.

They say they got the info from Deadline, though. So Deadline is still the only source of the 13-episode news.

 

However, I have to think that someone would have stepped in and corrected the report by now if it wasn't true, so I tend to believe it. So now the question becomes, where (and premiering when) is CBS gonna put PoI on the schedule?

Edited by stealinghome

I don't mind the 13 episode season providing they edit out the nonsense.   I think Agent Carter did well with 8.  Bloodline (Netflix) did a great first season with 13 and that was a slow pace compared to what I've been taught to expect from tv.  Actually, I would say a slow burn because while the pace was slow the intensity was way high.

Probably because everyone expects shows to go on hiatus over the break and come back in early January. So they know to look for it once the new year has started. Also PoI, at least, tends to leave off in the winter on a cliffhanger, so people DEFINITELY want to come back.

 

Yep, and I said just that a previous post (just a couple up from the one you quoted).

I don't mind the 13 episode season providing they edit out the nonsense.

I think this is key. If the show doesn't get picked up elsewhere and this is going to be the last 13, the writers need to do a few things. In no particular order:

 

Drop the procedural crap and go full-on AI war. I think it was pretty obvious this season that the writers really only had about half a season's worth of AI material, so I'm assuming the same is true for next season. So: don't even try to go back to procedural land/boring filler world. Focus on the AI war and getting The Machine back. Streamline, streamline, streamline. They're going to need all of those 13 episodes to tie up all the existing plot threads--the writing's going to need to be cable-tight.

 

Don't even try to restart the organized crime/cop side of the show--leave Elias dead in the car, it's a natural stopping point for that story.

 

Drop all the recurring characters except Zoe (can make a brief cameo in the finale), Control (ditto), and Greer (blow his smug face to hell!). No more wasting time on characters like Harper, Iris (ESPECIALLY Iris), Caleb, Claire, Silva (even though I really like her), etc. The last 13 need to be about the core team and their relationships.

 

Also please drop the cover identities. They're boring time sucks. You can pay lip service to them existing, but no more John at the precinct.

 

Convince Sarah Shahi to commit to coming back as close to full-time as possible from the start because 13 episodes is a lot less to have to film than 22. Shaw can serve as Greer's henchman-in-chief (no need to cast someone for that role) until the team gets her back.

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I agree for the most part, but I think Caleb and Zoe could be utilized a little bit. I'm just going to hope that whatever recurring characters appear, because they will, they tie them into the main plot. And I'm convinced now that the whole Iris stuff in the back half was a CBS directive to try and boost ratings by adding a girlfriend for Reese. It didn't work.

I'm more hopeful I today about the shortened season. If CBS holds off airing it until 2016 they could see how it does on Nextflix and possibly be inclined to do another abbreviated S6. But if it's airing in fall then it's done. And today I'm cool with that. Then they can go all in and do everything and anything they want since they won't have to worry about ratings or network renewal.

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13 episodes is a full season to cable networks and half a season on regular networks. I know PoI is complex but, I feel like if this isn't enough to wrap up, it'll be on the writers not CBS. Shows have gotten notice mid seasons the season finale will be the series finale and still have managed a decent ending. I know I brought up Buffy in my last post, but for all the issues with seasons 6 and 7, Joss was smart enough to not bank on selling the show elsewhere and went head with the season 5 ending as if it could be the end. Unless there is an iron deal in place during production Nolan and Co. Should do the same. They've been given enough notice. As a fan yeah it stinks, but I've seen networks burn shows a lot worse than this.

As far as ratings I read at some point over the season the show adds a few million viewers during various forms of playback. My OnDemand, which makes you watch commercials, has been really quick adding episodes but 4.21 as of yesterday was never added and 4.22 is up. Did anyone else have that problem? I don't know if WB or CBS is to blame but it doesn't seem to be offered anywhere like Hulu and I think that would help it a lot.

Darn, I had no idea this show was in so much trouble.  I like 22 episode seasons, because it allows the show to slow down, and it is still capable of doing awesome stand-alone case-of-the-week episodes, due to the caliber of the cast as well as the writers.  If they did have to wrap it all up in 13 episodes, I do think it's possible, but I wasn't even expecting next season to be its last, so the news of 13 on top of this possibly being the show's last season is quite a shock.

 

I know I brought up Buffy in my last post, but for all the issues with seasons 6 and 7, Joss was smart enough to not bank on selling the show elsewhere and went head with the season 5 ending as if it could be the end.

 

That ending was powerful, but then when he finally had a full season to properly end it, he blew it all to hell.  That's the thing I find, with shows on their last seasons.  Most of the time, they just squander the potential, waste time with pointless filler, and rush the payoff stuff in the penultimate and finale episodes (often with a bloodbath) and fans don't even get the final journey they deserve.

And I'm convinced now that the whole Iris stuff in the back half was a CBS directive to try and boost ratings by adding a girlfriend for Reese. It didn't work.

 

No it didn't.  This just isn't the type of show for "girlfriends" (except for Root's crush on Sameen), it adds absolutely nothing to the story and just gets in the way.  I'm glad that at least there's only been a few scenes we've had to muddle through with her.

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Speaking of shows changing networks, and also speaking of abrupt finales, I can't help but think of Medium. I actually watched and enjoyed that show, which was cancelled by NBC and moved to CBS (who were producing it).

 

Well, that show got a full season order (22 eps) and then, suddenly, the order got cut to 13 episodes after about 10 or 11 episodes had already been filmed. Now, that show was more procedural, but still. The writers didn't have time for anything and the actual finale of that show ended up being tragic (literally but also metaphorically, in terms of quality).

 

PoI at least is getting advance warning. I totally agree, Nolan and co. should negotiate with other networks right now (if it's even feasible) and, if they can't work something out, they should make this into the final season. No questions asked.

 

At the very least, I would accept a Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles ending, where most characters' fates are sealed and where all the plots are mostly resolved, except there's one major thing that opens a door to another story.

 

I just want to see this show end on a high note. It hasn't dissappointed me yet, so I have high hopes. And I do agree that, at this point, with the Machine compromised and with Samaritan so strong, a 13-episode season is perfect (because who would have time for cases of the week right now?). And I think that 13 episodes are enough, story-wise, to resolve the conflict. I hope that happens.

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I'm wondering if there is *any* wiggle room at all for how short S5 is?  This is a while back, but If memory serves me correctly, Once and Again (ABC) was originally cancelled during S3 and told that it would only have 16 episodes total for that final season, but ABC relented after the showrunners said they needed a couple more episodes to properly wrap up multiple storylines (they ended up with 19).  I agree 13 is probably enough for POI to do a good job with the Samaritan storyline, but I would *love* something like 16 episodes ...

(edited)

Wow, the Season 5 news just keeps getting worse ...  I agree that the only silver lining is if the show begins filming later in the year than they would for a September premiere, therefore raising the chances of more SS/Shaw.

 

Edited to add: Actually, the show probably can't delay filming by as much as I was thinking *if* they knew for sure that they were going to premiere in, for example, January.  As a mid-season replacement, they might have to have episodes ready for CBS by as early as November or even October, given how readily networks yank shows these days.

Edited by wevel
(edited)

I guess having POI with a mid season premiere might not be all that bad. If that does happen, there probably wouldn't be any gaps between episodes.  And while there might not be a full season, it might not be the 13 everybody's talking about either...maybe 15 or 16.

 

Fox went this route with "24" a while back-rather than having people wait over the Xmas holidays for the show to come back, it started every season in January-which allowed them to air all episodes without interruption.

Edited by StarBrand

I am not happy to wait for one of my favorite shows but if that means no interruptions would be cool..I'm hopng that the show moves new episodes to Netflix..that seems to make the most logical sense..

As for the procedural aspect, I think it would be great to bring back some of the people the Machine has saved and have it revealed, that all those episodes in the beginning were meant as a precursor to this war with Samaratan...The Machine wasn't picking these people out of benevolence but to use them later for it's own preservation...To me, that would be a great way to wrap the show up...

..and even if the show wraps up, it's still a better treatment than some shows I adored get canned without a proper farewell..American Dreams...Pushing Daisies(and the less said of the crime commtted against Boomtown, the better...still angriest over that)

..and Law and Order didn't even get the decency of warning they would be cancelled..they just pulled the plug after 20 seasons...they should have gotten a shortened final season so viewwers could properly say goodbye...

So, is it January yet???? Never thought I'd wish for winter...

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.and Law and Order didn't even get the decency of warning they would be cancelled..they just pulled the plug after 20 seasons...they should have gotten a shortened final season so viewwers could properly say goodbye...

So, is it January yet???? Never thought I'd wish for winter...

 

Well that's because Dick Wolf wouldn't pony up the money to get a 21st season.  Frankly, I had NO problem with how Law & Order ended. Van Buren in remission, the cops go on to work another case...

 

For that show? Perfect ending. Plus Merkerson had already told Wolf she wanted to leave, so she wouldn't have returned if the show had been renewed.

 

As long as "end on a high note" means that neither Finch or Reese die, and Root does, I'll be happy.

Unfortunately, I'm not surprised that PoI is being used as a spackle show--suspected as much when the 13-ep order was announced. As I said before, it's clear that short of over half of its schedule completely crashing and burning, CBS sees this as the show's last season on CBS. I'm sure the WB has gotten the memo as well, and assuming GP and JN are onboard, is pitching the show elsewhere. (Crossing my fingers for Netflix personally!)

Somewhat surprised CBS put Supergirl up against Gotham, I thought they'd go for the Sunday early slot. It'll be interesting to see how their rejiggered Mondays do. Iirc the Monday/Thursday move really hurt TBBT's rating last season--wonder if that will happen again.

Unrelatedly, I don't get why CBS is so desperate for Cyber to "succeed." Putting it in the Sunday death slot with TGW likely to go fractional several times this season? That will do it no ratings favors, and are they really going to let it limply lie there for 4 seasons just to hit syndication?

Somewhat surprised CBS put Supergirl up against Gotham, I thought they'd go for the Sunday early slot.

That time slot is consistently overrun by football in the fall, it's no place for a fledgling show. That's where you put an established show so that when viewers tune in and see football, they might actually wait around for the game to end. For a new show, viewers will just go find something elsewhere.

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(edited)

Dominic and Elias were a parallel to Samaritan and the Machine. The upstart full of hubris and lacking commitment to his people vs the older more complex character with strong ties to his people. I don't consider this fluff or filler.

I don't think Samaritan/Machine conflict needed a parallel of this kind (or at least such a big one). They were just too far away from each other thematically. Street level crime vs epic-scale war for the future of the human race. It's laughable.

 

But then, CBS shows rarely appeal to me, so I understand I'm not the intended audience. It just kills me that the show that does so many things absolutely right and has some genuinely intelligent writing has to stoop down to some basic procedural unimaginative crap. Some of the crime stuff does work out all right - when they go with character exploration for the mains - but it doesn't happen as often as it should. And really, Dominic and Elias would have worked very well for one or two episodes. Not for a whole season.

 

Dominic just wasn't interesting enough. 

 

I think, coupled with the broken schedule, this storyline could be to blame (partly) for the ratings decline. I'm pretty sure that most fans of crime procedural stuff tuned out during season 3, which was very AI-heavy. And now with this drug war some of those who were left just got bored (like me) and decided to binge on the show later or just drop it altogether. Shaw's exit probably didn't help either.

Edited by FurryFury
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(edited)

That's fair--I forgot about the inevitable football overrun. You'd think CBS could manage that better after so many years of practice.

Dominic just wasn't interesting enough.

Yeah, the attempted Samaritan/Dominic parallel was okay in theory, but the parallel and the Dominic character in general were so poorly executed that imo the plotline became filler instead of having the resonance/importance it was supposed to.

Having Dominic appear ONCE between 4x09 and 4x21--which was like what, 4 months real time?--didn't help. I thought Dominic was blah in the first half but at least appreciated his thematic significance. But then even that got lost by having him appear just once in 4B (though I suppose Samarian also took a vacation so...). It's like the writers fell in love with the idea of a parallel and then realized they didn't have any STORY there, just a theme, and went "crap."

Edited by stealinghome

I'm trying to be positive, which is so unlike me. It sounds like CBS is trying to work with the producers. I do worry about not having the show in reruns until perhaps the winter. If the show had stayed more case-of-the-week, I probably wouldn't have stuck around, honestly, but I could see it lasting, that's how the CSI/NCIS/SVU/freaking Bones, has stayed on so long, and why, even though but SVU and Bones were my shows at one point, I'd rather watch reruns than new episodes. I never watched any of those other shows, but I'm assuming they're very case of the week, easy to catch a rerun and not feel too lost in an over all plot, right? PoI as it is now isn't made to last too long. I love it, I think there is more story to tell, but do I see four more years? No. Even if 5 was a 22 episode season, if I had to guess, I'd say one more season after that for a total of 6. Picking up new viewers is hard, because as someone mentioned above, you actually have to pay attention, but I rerally think it could benefit by having past seasons on Netflix or Hulu.

(edited)

PoI is coming to Netflix this fall (S1-3 only though, not S4, I think). WGN will also begin airing S1-3 in syndication this fall as well. So personally I'm hoping, if it does well on Netflix streaming, Netflix might consider turning it into a Netflix show for one last sixth season.

 

(Which actually makes it not such a bad thing that PoI is gonna be a midseason show--gives more time for a syndication/Netflix boost to hit the ratings as people get caught up, which could help the WB shop it around if it is still doing so.)

 

TBBT is another show that didn't really blow up until it hit syndication, if memory serves. I think it got (really) good numbers before syndication, but just exploded once it was syndicated.

Edited by stealinghome
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(edited)

If the syndication and Netflix runs make the show do well when it returns, CBS may decide to keep it. They haven't officially called it the last season so they have the prerogative to continue. And now I'm wondering if that's one of the reasons for the delay to mid-season, to give it more time in reruns and see if the numbers take an upswing.

Edited by kariyaki
(edited)

I like the mid season debut for POI especially if they slot it not to coincide with the Easter break as we know the nets like to pre empt their shows. Maybe they could air 6 straight episodes and then come back a week later with 7 straight. But shit, we have to also contend with March Madness! And really, who is to say they wont move it to another night. Lots of variables here.

Friday night grave yard? Back to back with Elementary? After TGW? Ughh, *that* would be terrible. Between NFL and NCAA and some golf, that would be a disaster!

Just bring me back Shaw!!

Edited by prican58

I like the mid season debut for POI especially if they slot it not to coincide with the Easter break as we know the nets like to pre empt their shows. Maybe they could air 6 straight episodes and then come back a week later with 7 straight. But shit, we have to also contend with March Madness! And really, who is to say they wont move it to another night. Lots of variables here.

Friday night grave yard? Back to back with Elementary? After TGW? Ughh, *that* would be terrible. Between NFL and NCAA and some golf, that would be a disaster!

Just bring me back Shaw!!

I doubt it'll go on Fridays, unless something really tanks. Once The Amazing Race ends its fall cycle (airing 8PM Eastern on Fridays), they probably will air Undercover Boss like they did this season. And they've kept Hawaii Five-0 & Blue Bloods where H50's been since S3--this will be S6 this fall--& Blue Bloods has been since it premiered (I think it'll also be in S6 this fall), the 9 & 10PM Eastern timeslots, respectively. Both appear to have gotten full season (at least 22) episode commitments & I doubt they'd move either show from those slots as, even with low ratings & demos (compared to other shows on the network/schedule), the H50/BB combo has been winning the Friday ratings in their timeslots for CBS since the shows were paired in the 2012-2013 season.

(edited)
I doubt it'll go on Fridays, unless something really tanks.

Agreed--if CBS hasn't flinched at 5-0's 1.24 season average this year, they won't flinch at whatever it gets next year unless literally every single fall episode goes fractional. And they won't unseat Blue Bloods. Its demo numbers also suck (though not as bad as 5-0's) but total audience numbers are really good, it's CBS' #5 scripted show in total audience (#4 for the dramas).

 

I do, however, strongly suspect that whatever night PoI ends up airing on, if it's a true midseason replacement and straight-up takes over a timeslot from something else (ie the way Cyber just took over Stalker's spot this season), it will be in a 10pm slot. It seems unlikely to me that CBS would "waste" a prime 8/9pm slot on a show they've already decided to cancel. So they'll rejigger their schedule to make sure PoI gets a 10pm slot no matter what (at least on "normal" programming nights). Sadly, I think PoI's likeliest option by far is the Sunday 10pm death slot...at least, if it premieres midseason, it may actually start at 10 instead of 10:09, or 10:18, or 10:35? (Tuesdays and Wednesdays would be the other possibilities I see--CBS isn't going to unseat NCIS:LA on Mondays, BB, or Elementary on Thursdays at this point, whereas if Limitless or Code Black start strong they might want to move them to earlier timeslots and if they suck that bad CBS might just yank them and plug PoI in--but I feel like the Sunday graveyard spot is likelier, because it's where CBS sticks shows to die. If a 10pm weekday slot opened up, they might well just move Cyber there and plug PoI into Sundays, since CBS is clearly backing Cyber way way more than they backed CSI this year.)

 

If it's more a plug-it-in-wherever-we-feel-there's-a-hole situation, The Mentalist might be a good comparison here...CBS ran it Sunday nights at 9:30 for 5 episodes at the end of November and through December, where it took TGW's place on the schedule, and then its last 8 episodes aired Wednesdays at 8 beginning the first week of January and running to late February, where it took the place of Survivor between cycles. However, while I would love it if we got the Wednesday at 8pm slot in Jan/Feb, I'm not banking on it--I feel like that will go to the Criminal Minds spinoff (which is also a midseason show) to create a Criminal Minds block, at least for a few months. But I would love to be wrong on that! The Sunday stuff seems far likelier to happen. I would be very okay with us taking TGW's spot for a few weeks.... Anything is better than Sunday at 10.

 

PoI as it is now isn't made to last too long. I love it, I think there is more story to tell, but do I see four more years? No.

Nolan and Plageman have always talked about having a 5-6 year plan and not wanting the show to go past that. My concern is the 13-episode order. I think they could tie the show up effectively in 5 seasons if they had 22 or 23 episodes, but 13 is...really tight.

Edited by stealinghome

The show on Tuesday's at 10 is a new show. Limitless, a show version of the movie. I love Bradley Cooper (whose producing and starred in the movie), and yeah he's hot right now, but I just don't know if a show version of that will work. I don't know it's episode order. Maybe it's not a full 22, or if it ends up tanking by mid season, I can see PoI getting the spot back.

If it weren't for ABCs Thursday, I would want it back with Elementary (though ideally I want Elementary off Thursdays too.) I like it on at 10 so then I can discuss it without interrupting my viewing of another show, but, I love both shows and the people I know at least who I discuss both with also watch both. I loved when they were back to back I got my network viewing done in one night.

I haven't seen any of Cooper's movies, so he'll always be Will from Alias to me. That said, I'll check this show just for Jennifer Carpenter, loved on Dexter so much. I can see the pilot ratings of this show pretty high, but who knows what happens later (I doubt it would tank by the midseason, though, it has a lot of buzz + Cooper will be recurring). This timeslot also has Quantico on ABC which I'm a bit interested, but I can't imagine it succeeding, sadly.

 

If it weren't for ABCs Thursday, I would want it back with Elementary (though ideally I want Elementary off Thursdays too.) I like it on at 10 so then I can discuss it without interrupting my viewing of another show, but, I love both shows and the people I know at least who I discuss both with also watch both. I loved when they were back to back I got my network viewing done in one night.

 

There is some synergy, but Elementary is so... boring now. I've actually quit watching until they pick up some steam, if it ever happens.

Unfortunately, I'm not surprised that PoI is being used as a spackle show--suspected as much when the 13-ep order was announced. As I said before, it's clear that short of over half of its schedule completely crashing and burning, CBS sees this as the show's last season on CBS. I'm sure the WB has gotten the memo as well, and assuming GP and JN are onboard, is pitching the show elsewhere. (Crossing my fingers for Netflix personally!)

Somewhat surprised CBS put Supergirl up against Gotham, I thought they'd go for the Sunday early slot. It'll be interesting to see how their rejiggered Mondays do. Iirc the Monday/Thursday move really hurt TBBT's rating last season--wonder if that will happen again.

Unrelatedly, I don't get why CBS is so desperate for Cyber to "succeed." Putting it in the Sunday death slot with TGW likely to go fractional several times this season? That will do it no ratings favors, and are they really going to let it limply lie there for 4 seasons just to hit syndication?

Well. This has been a fine how-do-yo-do/hello Friday....waking up to the gut punch news that BB King has passed and then, lighting up my laptop to discover that Person of Interest—not just the show I love, but the ONLY network show I even care about—has not only just devolved from a 22- to a 13-episode fifth season, but is being withheld from CBS' fall schedule as a replacement for an inevitable new programming FAIL in January. Meanwhile, asinine utter crapola such as CSI:Cyber continue as if nothing has changed, BECAUSE IT HASN'T. There is a huge surplus of push-all-the-right-buttons procedurals eg., the iterations of CSI/NCIS, and dramas like Elementary and Scorpions, and at 45 years old,  I am out of the target demographic - too old for that stuff, but I'd rather stick red-hot knitting needles into my eyes than watch another CBS procedural with the time honored Bellisario formula of one or two good-looking male leads, at least one extremely attractive-yet-written-as-unapproachable female lead eg., Catherine Bell, Sacha Alexander, Daniela Ruah, on NCIS/NCIS LA, forced "sexual tension" and at least one old guy to  provide some sort of gravitas, and regardless of the complexity/severity of the problem or the depth of the mystery, everybody knows that everything's going to be all sunshine and lollipops by the end of the show. Even with the focus on individual numbers of the week, PoI never fell into that trap.

 

Oh well. Hello, Netflix, I'll get the DVDs and hopefully we can stream PoI in Hulu some day. Sorry about the rant - I just needed to get that out. I feel a  bit better now.

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