Ratings and Scheduling: Who's the fairest of them all?

[sharky]

45 minutes ago, Mathius said:

True, but if a new show gives equal numbers to what OUAT is currently giving, that's still an improvement over a hypothetical S7 of OUAT, since it's a given at this point that a S7 of OUAT would deliver worse numbers.

Yeah, but what new show has given ABC numbers equal to Once? Aside from Designated Survivor, every new drama has done worse this year than Once. And based on how things are going, Notorious, Conviction and Time After Time are going to have ratings so bad that none of them will get a back nine order. So sure, you can try and put a new show up against Sunday night football in the fall to see if it works, but that's a big gamble considering the past season. And you have shows like Conviction and Quantico that can't even capitalize on audiences from the Dancing and Bachelor juggernauts. So how much does ABC want to gamble? Because their drama gambles are not paying off this year. 

[Mathius]

As it has been said before, they're not going to replace OUAT with another drama.  They'd give the hour over to a comedy instead.

[Camera One]

I just looked back and they announced the cancellation of "Revenge" the last week of April.  So one more month before the bad news, maybe.  Anyone willing to go on a reckless adventure in the Enchanted Forest to save this show?

[oncebluethrone]

3 minutes ago, Camera One said:

I just looked back and they announced the cancellation of "Revenge" the last week of April.  So one more month before the bad news, maybe.  Anyone willing to go on a reckless adventure in the Enchanted Forest to save this show?

I'll go.  Will any characters be joining?

[Mathius]

17 minutes ago, Camera One said:

So one more month before the bad news, maybe.  Anyone willing to go on a reckless adventure in the Enchanted Forest to save this show?

Hmmm...

[KAOS Agent]

S7 of Once has been confirmed as a reboot. Many of the regulars will be gone, those remaining will not be the leads. For all intents and purposes, Once will be a new show. I don't see how you can base a renewal on current ratings. Most fans that I see aren't interested in watching a show that isn't about the characters that currently make up Once. A lot of people are still watching the show because they like a few characters even though the stories are disappointing, repetitive, dark and depressing. That being the case, how many of these people are going to stick around for the same show without those characters? It would be really difficult to attract enough new viewers to make up for the loss. If I were an ABC exec, I'd have to consider that Once S7 would debut to lower ratings (possibly considerably lower) than the S6 finale and would continue to drop from there.

[Free]

3 hours ago, Mathius said:

True, but if a new show gives equal numbers to what OUAT is currently giving, that's still an improvement over a hypothetical S7 of OUAT, since it's a given at this point that a S7 of OUAT would deliver worse numbers.

Yes, given its decline, the whole night needs a revamp of some kind.

[Souris]

2 hours ago, KAOS Agent said:

S7 of Once has been confirmed as a reboot. Many of the regulars will be gone, those remaining will not be the leads. For all intents and purposes, Once will be a new show. I don't see how you can base a renewal on current ratings. Most fans that I see aren't interested in watching a show that isn't about the characters that currently make up Once. A lot of people are still watching the show because they like a few characters even though the stories are disappointing, repetitive, dark and depressing. That being the case, how many of these people are going to stick around for the same show without those characters? It would be really difficult to attract enough new viewers to make up for the loss. If I were an ABC exec, I'd have to consider that Once S7 would debut to lower ratings (possibly considerably lower) than the S6 finale and would continue to drop from there.

Exactly. How much of the current viewership would they honestly expect to hold onto without most of the characters people are attached to? Some will watch as long as the name is on the show, but how many of those fans are there? I can't see the show picking up NEW viewers at this point. That's something ABC has to seriously consider.

[maryle]

I think their real plan is to go with the younger new cast members with some actual regular as guest more than regular.  Lana, Colin maybe Jen in some capacity.

The infamous reboot will fail like Sleepy Hollow this year. They should end the show with dignity this year!!

[cappoe]

Ratings prediction for tonight? I say 0.8. Nobody cares about Beowolf.

[sharky]

I'm going with a 0.9 -- hoping it will stay level after Captain Charming last week.

[Free]

23 hours ago, maryle said:

The infamous reboot will fail like Sleepy Hollow this year.

Reboots usually never bode well ratings wise.

[Mari]

On ‎3‎/‎18‎/‎2017 at 3:05 PM, Camera One said:

I just looked back and they announced the cancellation of "Revenge" the last week of April.  So one more month before the bad news, maybe.  Anyone willing to go on a reckless adventure in the Enchanted Forest to save this show?

 

It depends.  After the reckless adventure is over, do I get to make some show decisions?  Because I have a few storyline requirements before I'm willing to commit.

[Shanna Marie]

On 3/18/2017 at 4:37 PM, KAOS Agent said:

That being the case, how many of these people are going to stick around for the same show without those characters? It would be really difficult to attract enough new viewers to make up for the loss.

I suspect the idea would be that by calling it a reboot, it would be creating an entry point for people who aren't currently watching because it's too hard to catch up with this show's complicated mythology and a re-entry point for people who dropped out along the way and haven't tried to get back in because there's too much to get caught up in. It's like a brand-new show in that sense, but it still has holdover characters to give it a start with an established audience. It's really like a spinoff under the same title. I can't think of any show that's actually done that (successfully, at least).

I don't know how well that would work. The show already seems to re-set every season, with the previous season's events never mentioned again and the characters reset to their original factory settings. If you've seen the pilot episode and understand the reason fairytale characters are living in modern America and get the reason Snow White's daughter is the same age as she is, then all you need to have seen is the last five minutes of the previous season's finale. The reasons I most often hear for people dropping the show are that they sidelined and wimpified Snow White, that Regina and her scenery chewing took over the show, that the whole misunderstood villain thing got tiresome, and that it just got too dark and depressing to bear, and I don't think any of the reboot possibilities that are rumored fix any of that stuff. Snow is likely gone, Regina is likely there, it will be the same writers, and if a lot of the characters are out of the picture, it's hard to see how that's not dark and depressing (if Emma's there but her parents aren't, that separation is sad, and if Hook's there but Emma isn't that's also sad). I can't imagine how a reboot would draw enough new or returning viewers to make up for potentially lost existing viewers.

[Camera One]

A reboot that includes a few characters really is a stupid idea.  I think ratings and the financial cost could be the same if they did a final half-season of 13 episodes with the entire cast.  Half a season would result in lower total salaries paid out, and would probably result in the same sort of ratings as a partial reboot would garner.

[Free]

6 minutes ago, Shanna Marie said:

I suspect the idea would be that by calling it a reboot, it would be creating an entry point for people who aren't currently watching because it's too hard to catch up with this show's complicated mythology and a re-entry point for people who dropped out along the way and haven't tried to get back in because there's too much to get caught up in. It's like a brand-new show in that sense, but it still has holdover characters to give it a start with an established audience. It's really like a spinoff under the same title. I can't think of any show that's actually done that (successfully, at least).

I don't know how well that would work. The show already seems to re-set every season, with the previous season's events never mentioned again and the characters reset to their original factory settings. If you've seen the pilot episode and understand the reason fairytale characters are living in modern America and get the reason Snow White's daughter is the same age as she is, then all you need to have seen is the last five minutes of the previous season's finale. The reasons I most often hear for people dropping the show are that they sidelined and wimpified Snow White, that Regina and her scenery chewing took over the show, that the whole misunderstood villain thing got tiresome, and that it just got too dark and depressing to bear, and I don't think any of the reboot possibilities that are rumored fix any of that stuff. Snow is likely gone, Regina is likely there, it will be the same writers, and if a lot of the characters are out of the picture, it's hard to see how that's not dark and depressing (if Emma's there but her parents aren't, that separation is sad, and if Hook's there but Emma isn't that's also sad). I can't imagine how a reboot would draw enough new or returning viewers to make up for potentially lost existing viewers.

Reboots usually don't work, especially with certain characters missing or basically changing the show too much that alienates the remaining viewers.

[Shanna Marie]

I can't wait to see the half-hour breakdown in the ratings for this episode.

[Camera One]

You expect to see some ill-boding patterns in the audience numbers?

[Shanna Marie]

2 minutes ago, Camera One said:

You expect to see some ill-boding patterns in the audience numbers?

A big "there's got to be a more entertaining test pattern on another channel" drop.

[KAOS Agent]

Quote

Reboots usually don't work, especially with certain characters missing or basically changing the show too much that alienates the remaining viewers.

The problem with reboots in general is that the portion of your target audience that's going to watch is already watching or did watch and quit. If they quit watching, it was for a reason. So if you quit because a certain character annoys you into quitting, then maybe a reboot with new characters will work to bring you back. If you quit because the story was lacking, went in a poor direction, had a lack of payoff or simply bored you, you aren't going to come back. It really doesn't matter though because you can't base a reboot's potential ratings on existing ratings since you're looking at a different audience.

Quote

A big "there's got to be a more entertaining test pattern on another channel" drop.

I'm so excited to watch the episode now. Sounds like I should wait until bedtime and use it as a sleep aid.

[Free]

23 minutes ago, Shanna Marie said:

I can't wait to see the half-hour breakdown in the ratings for this episode.

Last week had a sizable drop (1.0/0.8) if that's of any indication and from the past 2 seasons, OuaT usually start to slowly drop at around episode 3 onwards.

16 minutes ago, KAOS Agent said:

The problem with reboots in general is that the portion of your target audience that's going to watch is already watching or did watch and quit. If they quit watching, it was for a reason. So if you quit because a certain character annoys you into quitting, then maybe a reboot with new characters will work to bring you back. If you quit because the story was lacking, went in a poor direction, had a lack of payoff or simply bored you, you aren't going to come back. It really doesn't matter though because you can't base a reboot's potential ratings on existing ratings since you're looking at a different audience.

I'm so excited to watch the episode now. Sounds like I should wait until bedtime and use it as a sleep aid.

Exactly, the remaining audience aren't here for a new show with new characters, they would've watched a different one altogether.

[Shanna Marie]

It did look like they were trying to capitalize on any curiosity about the fallout from last week's episode by using that plot to bookend the episode, so that it was addressed in the first half and last half, which might help avoid the dropoff. Unless people just got bored and figured the scene at the beginning was it. I don't know exactly how they calculate the ratings, if you get credit for that half hour if people turn away and then come back for the last few minutes.

[Eolivet]

Does ABC even want to save this show? They had a pivotal moment at the end that would be very important to the remaining audience, that from what I saw, was completely unpromoted. I'm sure they wanted the "element of surprise," but wow. I bet they could've gotten more casual viewer tune-in if they'd promoted the romantic moment. I guess we'll find out tomorrow.

[Tiger]

13 minutes ago, Eolivet said:

Does ABC even want to save this show? They had a pivotal moment at the end that would be very important to the remaining audience, that from what I saw, was completely unpromoted. I'm sure they wanted the "element of surprise," but wow. I bet they could've gotten more casual viewer tune-in if they'd promoted the romantic moment. I guess we'll find out tomorrow.

Is ABC promoting the series at all anymore?

I'm seriously asking because I dvr everything and dont watch ads.  Ive seen a lot for Dancing and Quantico on the ESPN's when I'm at the gym.

On 3/18/2017 at 4:05 PM, Camera One said:

I just looked back and they announced the cancellation of "Revenge" the last week of April.  So one more month before the bad news, maybe.  Anyone willing to go on a reckless adventure in the Enchanted Forest to save this show?

It's been pointed out to me that in the last 20 odd years, only Home Improvement, NYPD Blue, Lost, and Desperate Housewives got big final season sendoffs.  Most even long-running shows just had their series finale announced and promotes a week or so ahead.  

[Shanna Marie]

1 minute ago, Tiger said:

Is ABC promoting the series at all anymore?

Not that I can tell. I watch the local news on the ABC affiliate, and I don't think they even ran a promo for it during today's evening news. In past seasons, they've run promos during the local evening news during the week, and a couple of times during the Sunday newscast. This is the only thing I'm watching on ABC prime time this season, so I don't know if they're doing other promo, but I'm definitely seeing a dropoff in what they show during the national and local news on their affiliates.

[Kktjones]

They did do at least some promo during other ABC shows. I saw it during Grey's and Modern Family this week. They also still do teaser interviews with outlets like EW, Yahoo, TV Guide, TV Line, etc. You would think there would have been some indication that the proposal might be happening in this episode. Even if they've made the decision to cancel, you'd think they would want to maintain the ratings they have.

[MadyGirl1987]

2 hours ago, Tiger said:

It's been pointed out to me that in the last 20 odd years, only Home Improvement, NYPD Blue, Lost, and Desperate Housewives got big final season sendoffs.  Most even long-running shows just had their series finale announced and promotes a week or so ahead.  

With all due respect, that is just not true. Unless I misunderstand what you mean by final season send off, I can think of several, recent shows that had their final seasons announced from the start of the season. The Office, Parks and Rec, HIMYM, Breaking Bad. Even now, Girls and Game of Thrones are either in or going to be starting, their final seasons. And even if it wasn't announced from the start of the seasons, look at all the lead up to the Seinfeld, Friends and  ER finales.

Edited March 20, 2017 by MadyGirl1987

[InsertWordHere]

4 minutes ago, MadyGirl1987 said:

With all due respect, that is just not true. Unless I misunderstand what you mean by final season send off, I can think of several, recent shows that had their final seasons announced from the start of the season.

I believe the poster was referring to ABC shows. 

[Camera One]

2 hours ago, Tiger said:

It's been pointed out to me that in the last 20 odd years, only Home Improvement, NYPD Blue, Lost, and Desperate Housewives got big final season sendoffs.  Most even long-running shows just had their series finale announced and promotes a week or so ahead.  

I remember quite a bit promotion for Alias's final run of episodes (the B half of the season), after the cancellation was announced after Thanksgiving.  

Most of the longer-running serialized shows I've watched have had promotions for final seasons.  Story-of-the-week type shows, usually not.

[MadyGirl1987]

17 minutes ago, InsertWordHere said:

I believe the poster was referring to ABC shows. 

Ah, that makes sense! Thanks!

[Souris]

The cast is going to get SO many questions at the Vancouver con this weekend about renewal and who's coming back.

[sharky]

20 minutes ago, Souris said:

The cast is going to get SO many questions at the Vancouver con this weekend about renewal and who's coming back.

I posted the same thing in the episode thread. Holy crap, this weekend's con is going to be a mess. Two queens, botched proposal, characters dying rumors. Then add this whole ratings/schedule mess and the weekend is going to be a bit of a dumpster fire. Anyone know if A&E are even going to be there? Doesn't look like the schedule is posted yet and there aren't any photo ops with them -- as if anyone would actually pay for a photo with them. So that means they're throwing the cast to the wolves when it comes to all these renewal questions while they sit on their butts drinking martinis in Burbank.

[Souris]

Once got a 1.9/1.8 last night. http://programminginsider.com/network/cancellation-clock-ticking-abcs-time-time-foxs-making-history/

[sharky]

It'll be interesting to see what the 18-49 numbers are. Also looks like Once came in third in the time slot ahead of Simpsons and Making History. We've been talking about ABC potentially putting comedies on Sundays but Makihg History seems to be an example of that not working.

[Free]

3 minutes ago, sharky said:

It'll be interesting to see what the 18-49 numbers are. Also looks like Once came in third in the time slot ahead of Simpsons and Making History. We've been talking about ABC potentially putting comedies on Sundays but Makihg History seems to be an example of that not working.

That's a FOX comedy though and those are almost usually fractional.

As for ABC, yikes, it needs a revamp because the night is falling apart.

[Mathius]

TVbythenumbers gives it 0.8 and 2.72. 

Yes, we have officially sunk to the 2 million viewer range.  That twist about Hook and David's dad sure did pay off, huh?

[Free]

1 minute ago, Mathius said:

TVbythenumbers gives it 0.8 and 2.72. 

Yes, we have officially sunk to the 2 million viewer range.  That twist about Hook and David's dad sure did pay off, huh?

Yeah, it's not going to get any better with the way this season has went.  (0.8/0.7).

[Camera One]

After this week's catatonic episode, I fear next week's viewership will be even lower.

[Shanna Marie]

I think they could have capitalized on the curiosity about how the murder twist would play out, but by skipping it almost entirely, delaying any payoff from that, and devoting the entire following episode to an unrelated plot point -- and being boring -- they probably killed any interest their shocking twist might have generated. That's why the half-hour ratings will be interesting. Did people tune in to see what happened next, realize that the episode was about something different, and tune out? Or did people just not watch?

[Free]

4 minutes ago, Camera One said:

After this week's catatonic episode, I fear next week's viewership will be even lower.

A reboot isn't going to fare any better with people already tuning out at this rate.

[Souris]

Viewership in millions by ep so far this season: 3.02, 3.06, 2.72

[maryle]

It is hard to know what thank the rating probably a combination of all things horrible ending, the episode not looking interesting in the promo( why not have use the proposal?) the normal decline in spring.

But, it's another red flag pointing they should close this year or a short season with the original cast if  not I don't see how anyone can really think it will have a improvement rating wise.

[Curio]

I'm shocked ABC never figured out the true source of the ratings decline: the showrunners. I feel like ABC could have saved this show if they replaced A&E with a more experienced showrunner after Season 4. There are still so many stories left to tell on OUAT, but A&E are killing their own show.

[scenicbyway]

Whoever thought an episode revolving around Beowulf, Rumple, Gideon (who cares) and fake Bae, should be fired.  Where the heck do they come up with this nonsense.  I expected the numbers to be much worse.  No one familiar was on the screen for a good five minutes.

[Mathius]

15 minutes ago, maryle said:

It is hard to know what thank the rating probably a combination of all things horrible ending, the episode not looking interesting in the promo( why not have use the proposal?) the normal decline in spring.

I definitely think the ending was the biggest contributor, as there was an uproar on just about every website tracking OUAT over it since it flat-out ruined the entire episode, it made the pretty enjoyable hour you had been having watching it entirely meaningless.  It was a new low for TS, TW.

Quote

I expected the numbers to be much worse.  No one familiar was on the screen for a good five minutes.

Yeah, but the people who came in to watch it at the start wouldn't know that.

That said, there was probably a big drop-off in the second half-hour compared to the first.

Edited March 20, 2017 by Mathius

[Souris]

Here are the un-rounded 18-49 prelims for Sunday, March 19:

Once Upon a Time ................. 0.759 ... (0.789 ... 0.728)

So it rounded up to a 0.8, but not by much. And a big in-ep drop, not surprisingly.

Edited March 20, 2017 by Souris

[Mathius]

So it's actually closer to 0.7.  Wow.  That's really not that much better than the 0.4 that the two shows following it have.

Yeah, I'm really thinking ABC is just going to nuke the whole Sunday lineup and start anew with a more comedy-oriented one.

[jjjmoss]

Though rounded it did do the numbers of the other 2 ABC dramas combined...so as repeated before, ABC dramas doing so terribly makes the terrible performance of this show look good comparatively.

Edited March 20, 2017 by jjjmoss

[Free]

Just now, jjjmoss said:

Though rounded it did do the numbers of the other 2 ABC dramas combined...so as repeated before, ABC dramas so terribly makes the terrible performance of this show look good comparatively.

The problem is that their reboot plans aren't going to work if people are already fleeing the show.

[Souris]

Depends on what ABC's strategy is. Do they nuke everything on Sunday and gamble on new shows? Or do they let Once ride for one more season with the knowledge that its ratings will probably go down next season? I think even if it comes back, it's getting moved. It hurts them as a lead-in.