Ratings and Scheduling: Who's the fairest of them all?

[Serena]

That graph is very interesting. I notice, for example, that season 3 was VERY steady in ratings; S1 was kind of steady, while S2 and S4 had very sharp declines in the back half. Both 2B and 4B sucked, so that sounds about right. 

[regularlyleaded]

To be fair though, there was a huge jump in the S4 premiere because of Frozen. The network also promoted it much more. We had magazine covers and a flashy premiere in Hollywood. None of that this around. 4A was an outlier and shouldn't be used to judge ratings for this show.

I don’t think you can discount the entirety of season 4A because of “Frozen”, especially when you can clearly see within that chart when the “Frozen” effect stopped — “Frozen” lookie lous were clearly gone by episode 3. I don't see Season 4A as a whole as an outlier in ratings. I would argue the first two episodes are likely outliers in terms of ratings numbers, but the rest of 4A's ratings are in line with other seasons. Really, looking at season 4 as whole, it's ratings pattern/trend is similar to season 2's.

 

Yes, episodes 1 and 2 of season 4 had an obviously large bump in ratings and viewers attributable to the"Frozen" curiosity factor, but from episodes 3 and onwards, the ratings and viewership numbers are clearly in line with those from season 3. The show was still holding onto it's season 3 audience numbers, and it did what networks like for shows to do, it managed to create a degree of growth! If networks didn’t like growth then no one would be talking about Fox’s “Empire”. Yes, OUAT saw viewership increase because of “Frozen”, but still, you can’t just throw out the entirety of 4A ratings because of that reason. If the ratings had stayed high in season 4A (that is to say, if the show had managed to keep those viewers) we wouldn’t be throwing out the ratings because of “Frozen”. We’d be applauding the network and writers for managing to create large amounts of growth, holding on to that growth in viewership and expecting great things for season 5. Sadly, that's not the case.

 

Even accounting for the “Frozen” effect (so only looking at episodes 3 and onwards), season 4A clearly shows a large drop in viewership in line with that seen in season 2. It’s nearly identical to season 2’s nose-dive drop in ratings with a full point drop in points. From episodes 3 to 11 (of season 4) the show went from a 2.7 to 1.7. That’s not due to normal attrition, cord cutters, football, or whatever excuse people want to use. That’s due to the show alienating viewers all on it’s own. The show downright drove people away. And even viewers that came back to check out 4B (season 4B returned to a 2.2 rating number), those viewers checked out again and based on the s5 premiere numbers, they checked out for good.

 

What season 4 did as a whole was the exact opposite of what it could’ve done with “Frozen”. With “Frozen” they could have grown their audience, but instead, not only were they unable to hold onto new viewers they also amazingly managed to lose a large chunk of it’s normal core audience.

I think what people should keep in mind is that whereas a ratings of 1.8 and 5.8 million viewers was a new average low for the show in season 4 (a new bottom floor, so to speak), the show is now looking at the sad fact that a 1.8 and 5.8 million viewers could be it’s new “high”. The s5 premiere didn’t grow in viewers and it merely matched last years finale ratings (when the show is already normally at it's lower end of the ratings for the season). At best, the show maintained the bottom floor ratings. But, based on past seasons, the highest rated and largest viewership episodes are the premieres and following premieres the ratings go down. So if we take into account patterns from past seasons (yes, including season 4A) The show could be looking to hit a new series low of 1.0 at some point this season, and a new average rating of 1.4. It’s obviously too early to tell, but it’s entirely within the realm of possibility now. And while I’m not sounding an alarm or claiming the show is doomed, those numbers are nevertheless troubling (and especially for a show of this size and cost).

Edited September 29, 2015 by regularlyleaded

[YaddaYadda]

I think there's villain fatigue with this show too. 4B came at us with 3 extra bad guys and I nearly quit because I didn't see what the point was, especially when you're dragging your so-called heroes through the mud to achieve whatever.

[Mitch]

Well, I think the viewers are tired of a show that started out with such promise and an interesting premise, and rapidly became a show about the latest cartoon villain coming up with a ridiculous scheme no one cares about. Really, since Season 1 (Emma vs. Regina/the Truth/The Curse) has there been an interesting conflict on the show? The parade of villains is boring (they wont stick around and the problems they caused have no lasting effects on the characters...) as is the parade of Disney walk ons (and offs.)

 

I think the show also suffers this year as it is not using a well known Disney product for the premiere. People would tune in to see Neverland or the Wicked Witch and of course Frozen...yea, they didn't do a good job with any of those things, and anything that Pan, Zelena, or the Queens of Darkness did had no lasting effect on anyone,  but at least people tuned in to see them at first. Unless you are a veteran viewer who the hell would know who or what the "Dark Swan," was and why would anyone care. I am glad they are using their own mythology for this, as I am tired of them screwing up others and I am tired of the villain of the season format..but the producers were the one that went to that well way too often as they relied on familiar Disney icons to spur business and not their own creativity, so they can't complain when viewers get used ot it.

 

I think that the producers also burned themselves when, in S2 there was a noticeable switch from an adult show that kids could watch to a kids show the adults could kind of stick it out through.  The less dark the show got and the more cartoony it became probably brought in more kids, but now its a kids show, its pretty werid to have the heroine of the show killing people. I personally like it as it is getting as dark as S1, and now something is happening to the main cast instead of them running around trying to foil a mustache twirling villain, but I can see why parents wouldn't want to tune in for "the Dark Swan."

[Mathius]

I don’t think you can discount the entirety of season 4A because of “Frozen”, especially when you can clearly see within that chart when the “Frozen” effect stopped — “Frozen” lookie lous were clearly gone by episode 3. I don't see Season 4A as a whole as an outlier in ratings. I would argue the first two episodes are likely outliers in terms of ratings numbers, but the rest of 4A's ratings are in line with other seasons. Really, looking at season 4 as whole, it's ratings pattern/trend is similar to season 2's.

 

Yes, episodes 1 and 2 of season 4 had an obviously large bump in ratings and viewers attributable to the"Frozen" curiosity factor, but from episodes 3 and onwards, the ratings and viewership numbers are clearly in line with those from season 3. The show was still holding onto it's season 3 audience numbers, and it did what networks like for shows to do, it managed to create a degree of growth! If networks didn’t like growth then no one would be talking about Fox’s “Empire”. Yes, OUAT saw viewership increase because of “Frozen”, but still, you can’t just throw out the entirety of 4A ratings because of that reason. If the ratings had stayed high in season 4A (that is to say, if the show had managed to keep those viewers) we wouldn’t be throwing out the ratings because of “Frozen”. We’d be applauding the network and writers for managing to create large amounts of growth, holding on to that growth in viewership and expecting great things for season 5. Sadly, that's not the case.

 

Even accounting for the “Frozen” effect (so only looking at episodes 3 and onwards), season 4A clearly shows a large drop in viewership in line with that seen in season 2. It’s nearly identical to season 2’s nose-dive drop in ratings with a full point drop in points. From episodes 3 to 11 (of season 4) the show went from a 2.7 to 1.7. That’s not due to normal attrition, cord cutters, football, or whatever excuse people want to use. That’s due to the show alienating viewers all on it’s own. The show downright drove people away. And even viewers that came back to check out 4B (season 4B returned to a 2.2 rating number), those viewers checked out again and based on the s5 premiere numbers, they checked out for good.

 

What season 4 did as a whole was the exact opposite of what it could’ve done with “Frozen”. With “Frozen” they could have grown their audience, but instead, not only were they unable to hold onto new viewers they also amazingly managed to lose a large chunk of it’s normal core audience.

I think what people should keep in mind is that whereas a ratings of 1.8 and 5.8 million viewers was a new average low for the show in season 4 (a new bottom floor, so to speak), the show is now looking at the sad fact that a 1.8 and 5.8 million viewers could be it’s new “high”. The s5 premiere didn’t grow in viewers and it merely matched last years finale ratings (when the show is already normally at it's lower end of the ratings for the season). At best, the show maintained the bottom floor ratings. But, based on past seasons, the highest rated and largest viewership episodes are the premieres and following premieres the ratings go down. So if we take into account patterns from past seasons (yes, including season 4A) The show could be looking to hit a new series low of 1.0 at some point this season, and a new average rating of 1.4. It’s obviously too early to tell, but it’s entirely within the realm of possibility now. And while I’m not sounding an alarm or claiming the show is doomed, those numbers are nevertheless troubling (and especially for a show of this size and cost).

THUNDEROUS APPLAUSE.

 

Seriously, this post is dead-on and perfect.  There is absolutely no way to look at the numbers for S4 plus the numbers for S5's premiere and spin it into anything positive.  Whether you like the show or not, it has alienated a vast amount of its viewers in both S2 and S4, and there's likely nowhere to go but down now.  Either S5 or S6 is likely to be its last season.

Edited September 30, 2015 by Mathius

[icewolf]

1.8/5 5.925 million

No adjustment for the Final Ratings

http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2015/09/29/sunday-final-ratings-bobs-burgers-adjusted-down-60-minutes-adjusted-up-sunday-night-football/473898/

[Mathius]

Y'know, that is very close to the OUATIW premiere numbers.

Wouldn't be surprised if S5 devolves to a 3-million average like that show did.

[Curio]

Wouldn't be surprised if S5 devolves to a 3-million average like that show did.

 

I don't think it'll average 3 million viewers, but I could see it dipping into 3.9 or 3.8 territory by around episode 9 or 10 when the viewership drops off around December.

[Serena]

I don't think it'll average 3 million viewers, but I could see it dipping into 3.9 or 3.8 territory by around episode 9 or 10 when the viewership drops off around December.

This year the show is not scheduled to air in December, actually. If they air the episodes straight through, the last one (510) should air November 29th.

[KAOS Agent]

Once will be off on November 22 as ABC will be airing the AMAs. Once's mid-season finale would then be pushed into December.

[LizaD]

The less dark the show got and the more cartoony it became probably brought in more kids, but now its a kids show, its pretty werid to have the heroine of the show killing people.

Demos don't support this. At all. The highest kids demos 2-11 came in S1, 2A and Frozen. In fact Frozen's 2-11 numbers were even higher than S1's numbers, at least initially. It might have gotten more cartoony but I don't think that automatically translates to kid show. In fact those 2-11 demos tells me that it was the large contingent of families with kids dropping the show like a hot potato that was driving the overall big decline in the demos that do matter, 18-49, that began in 2B.

What is so kid friendly about having Snow White drooling in a corner and getting called murderer every 2 seconds for episodes on end? You don't have to explain to an 8 year old why the Evil Queen is evil because that was in the cartoon. But try explaining to an 8 year old with Disney princesses dolls and dresses, why one of those princesses is now evil amd a killer and victimizer? Not sure that's a prospect "Disney families" want to touch just yet. The show has been relentlessly depressing and dreary in tone since S2. S1 had mature themes but it had a light whimsical fairy tale feel to it, that it has never been able to recapture, even with Frozen. That probably explains why Frozen, despite its outstanding cast, couldn't retain those viewers.

What it got was more "CW" like, not more Nickolodean like, that was the problem. I think that perfectly explains why even though ratings are declining, they get a lot of social media chatter, just like the CW shows. I mean those shows always pop up on top social media counts but the audience is even lower than Once's. It's too bad for them that CW works on a slightly different model than the big 4.

It's not kid friendly for the 2-11 group and it's not smart enough to hang onto the parents that could watch it for themselves but cut it off from their kids. Seriously no primetime network targets kids. You can target 18-49 adults with kids or 18-49 adults without kids. The whole "family friendly" line doesn't mean they're chasing kids. It means you're more likely to see a vacuum cleaner or laundry detergent commercial in the spot that pulls in 18-49 with kids versus without.

Edited October 1, 2015 by LizaD

[Rumsy4]

The show has been relentlessly depressing and dreary in tone since S2.

This, and villain fatigue, probably contributed a lot to the ratings drop. Most people don't want to spend Sunday night watching this kind of thing. This show is about anything but hope!

 

ETA: Here is an excellent analysis on the ratings drop by someone who is both a Regina & a CS fan. I think it nails it.

 

Some excellent points from the meta: "I think they’ve overplayed their hand and lost touch with what it was that made people fall in love with this show in the first place.  ...the idea that good always wins." and "Where’s the payoff for being good? The heroes keep getting their happy endings taken away. ...I think both the characters AND the fans are ready for Happily Ever Afters."

Edited October 1, 2015 by Rumsy4

[KingOfHearts]

S1 was more "hopeful" because each episode had some sort of victory. Emma was bringing some fairy tale its happy ending or foiling Regina's plans. There wasn't constant danger or impending doom. To a degree the show even owned its cheesiness. (Dreamy, etc.)

From 2B on it's been, "Oh noes it's Cora! Oh noes it's Zelena! Oh noes it's Cruella, Ursula and Maleficent!" It's exhausting. It never takes a break. The villain focus is downright insulting to S1 viewers most of the time.

Edited October 4, 2015 by KingOfHearts

[Camera One]

Yeah, I find S2 onwards to be generally bleak and depressing despite less violence.  I wouldn't let children under 10 watch this show.  Cruella viciously murdering her mother?  No thanks.  Then again, most parents now have children as young as 6 watching PG-13 rated movies, so maybe this is still considered a "family" show.

[Curio]

I wouldn't let children under 10 watch this show. Cruella viciously murdering her mother? No thanks.

 

The ironic thing is that the show seems to be written specifically for children who still think in black and white terms, even though Adam & Eddy always say their characters are "grey." For adults who can read between the lines and analyze the way the show is written and created, the mistakes within the show stand out a lot more. But the younger crowd who are easily impressionable will take everything Once shows them at face value.

Edited October 1, 2015 by Curio

[jaytee1812]

I think this should go in here.

For UK viewers Episode 1 of season 5 is now on Netflix and it looks like each episode will be added the Wednesday after its US broadcast.

[Souris]

ETA: Here is an excellent analysis on the ratings drop by someone who is both a Regina & a CS fan. I think it nails it.

 

Some excellent points from the meta: "I think they’ve overplayed their hand and lost touch with what it was that made people fall in love with this show in the first place.  ...the idea that good always wins." and "Where’s the payoff for being good? The heroes keep getting their happy endings taken away. ...I think both the characters AND the fans are ready for Happily Ever Afters."

 

Thank you for linking that! I think that analysis is 100% accurate.

[tatterd]

I think this should go in here.

For UK viewers Episode 1 of season 5 is now on Netflix and it looks like each episode will be added the Wednesday after its US broadcast.

 

Do they have seasons 3 and 4 as well?  As admittedly it was a while back but last time I used it they only had 1 and 2, which was part of the reason I didn't sign up.  Although I don't really know why I'm asking as between here and the Hook youtube clips I feel like I know everything I want to.

[Mathius]

S1 was more "hopeful" because each episode had some sort of victory. Emma was bringing some fairy tale its happy ending or foiling Regina's plans. There wasn't constant danger or impending doom. To a degree the show even owned its cheesiness. (Dreamy, etc.)

From 2B on it's been, "Oh noes it's Cora! Oh noes it's Zelena! Oh noes it's Cruella, Ursula and Maleficent!" It's exhausting. It never takes and break. The villain focus is downright insulting to S1 viewers most of the time.

This, again, is why so many tend to consider 3A the best after S1, since it was the only time the characters actually got some breathing space, time to work out their issues, time to talk and time to think.  Pan wasn't bombarding them with danger in every episode (there was a mermaid attack in 3x01 and a Lost Boy attack in 3x02, and then no other big crisis happened until 3x07 unless you're counting David's illness).  Henry's life wasn't in immediate danger.  It all made the ultimate payoff of working together, saving Henry, and getting the heck off that godforsaken island all the sweeter.  

 

In the other arcs, it's pretty much always big dramatic life-and-death stakes.  Out of all 2A, 2B, 3B, 4A, and 4B combined, I think only three episodes ("Manhattan", "Lacey", "The Jolly Roger") did not involve managing a crisis or impending doom facing some character in some way or other.  Despite what Adam and Eddy believe, this is not "drama", it's just tiresome.  If these kinds of things were rarer on the show rather than in every episode, they would mean a lot more and there'd be genuine suspense and REAL drama.

Edited October 1, 2015 by Mathius

[Selina K]

This, again, is why so many tend to consider 3A the best after S1, since it was the only time the characters actually got some breathing space, time to work out their issues, time to talk and time to think.  Pan wasn't bombarding them with danger in every episode (there was a mermaid attack in 3x01 and a Lost Boy attack in 3x02, and then no other big crisis happened until 3x07 unless you're counting David's illness).  Henry's life wasn't in immediate danger.  It all made the ultimate payoff of working together, saving Henry, and getting the heck off that godforsaken island all the sweeter.  

 

While I completely agree with this, if you look at the boards or remember conversations going on during 3A, there was a lot of "Why are they just wandering around?  Why don't they do something?  We're just looking at potted plants?!?  Nothing is happening!"  I think A&E heard that part of the fandom and haven't calmed down since then so we get emotional set ups (Hook's heart, yes I'm still mad) that don't pay off because emotion and feelings <> action, therefore ratings fall.

 

I loved 3A.  Robbie Kay was great.  CS was adorable.  I don;t hate triangles in general, but I've seen some people complain about the "oh, noes!  a love triangle!" in 3A.  I guess I don;t feel that Hook - Emma - Neal was ever really a triangle because I found it to be clear Emma was 100% over Neal.  I saw them as people who shared a past and a son who get along, never people with residual romantic feelings for one another. I don't think the ratings for 3A bear out the fan complaints, but I think A&E 'heard' the fans grumbling, while not listening to the viewers.

[jaytee1812]

Do they have seasons 3 and 4 as well? As admittedly it was a while back but last time I used it they only had 1 and 2, which was part of the reason I didn't sign up. Although I don't really know why I'm asking as between here and the Hook youtube clips I feel like I know everything I want to.

Yeah they added 3 & 4 a few months ago.

[Serena]

Live+3 Ratings: 

 

#OUAT gets its usual healthy DVR lift, adding 2M viewers (now at 8M) and 0.9 in A18-49 (2.7)

 

[Mathius]

While I completely agree with this, if you look at the boards or remember conversations going on during 3A, there was a lot of "Why are they just wandering around? Why don't they do something? We're just looking at potted plants?!? Nothing is happening!" I think A&E heard that part of the fandom and haven't calmed down since then so we get emotional set ups (Hook's heart, yes I'm still mad) that don't pay off because emotion and feelings <> action, therefore ratings fall.

Yes, and it's very similar to when S1 airing and there were so many complaints about the Storybrooke side of the story where there was alot of quieter and emotional moments, the plot moved at a slower pace, and there was less action. With the benefit of hindsight after the season was over with, most people know that those things made it great, yet A&E seem to have listened to those earlier complaints and changed the show for the worse as a result.

It's the same thing with 3A. Not that it or S1 were without fault, far from it, but many of the things complained about at the time were not so bad or even good when you look at the arc as a whole in hindsight. And the complaints themselves only hurt the show when they were adhered to (ex: the endless complaints about the setting of Neverland and cries of "get back to Storybrooke!" has led to S4 being set entirely in Storybrooke, which has become an empty and dreary town, and 5A using the BS "6 weeks later/memory loss" plot device in order to set the present story in Storybrooke and flashbacks in Camelot because Heaven forbid we have another arc spent wholy in another world away from Storybrooke.)

Ironically, in interviews A&E still defended 3A from the complaints well after the fact using the very explanation I've given: you can't always make such rash judgments on story arcs while they are still going on, you have to wait until it's all aired and then look at the whole. As they accurately stated, "Going Home" was a widely-praised episode, and it was an accumulative one, its effectiveness largely dependent on the preceding 10 episodes. So maybe the caving in to complaints on social media isn't from them, but from their network producers bosses, who seem more likely than A&E to take social media complaints to heart, for better or worse.

I don't think the ratings for 3A bear out the fan complaints, but I think A&E 'heard' the fans grumbling, while not listening to the viewers.

The funny thing is that the live ratings for 3A were higher in the slower, more talky first half (3x01 - 3x06) than the faster, more actiony second half (3x07 - 3x11). And it's not likely that the drop was due to people tuning out of boredom due to the first half's slowness given that the action-packed nature of 3x07 and onward was very blatantly advertised in the promos. Edited October 4, 2015 by Mathius

[sharky]

A bit of a tangent but something I thought was interesting. I was listening to the Nerdist podcast with Lea Thompson, and she mentioned that her show Caroline in the City was cancelled in 1999 because of bad ratings. They were pulling a 13 share. And now we debating how bad a 1.8 is compared to a 2.0 share.

 

And on that note, how bad do we think tonight is going to drop? I'm kind of hoping my theory about the core fans being all that is left is true, which would be the share shouldn't drop too much. Hopefully.

[jaytee1812]

I follow the TV Grim Reaper account on Twitter and he basically says that it depends on how other scripted shows are doing. So I think Nashville's rating are worse which is good for this show.

[KingOfHearts]

 

And on that note, how bad do we think tonight is going to drop? I'm kind of hoping my theory about the core fans being all that is left is true, which would be the share shouldn't drop too much. Hopefully.

Yeah. I'm pretty if anyone is still watching they're as crazy as all of us. ;)

[Serena]

I did read a ratings account as well, who said OUAT is in no danger (of course) and that a show is competing with other shows on its own network, not different networks. So far on ABC Blood&Oil flopped outright, Quantico was decent (but not much higher than OUAT - and I bet it drops tonight) and The Muppets premiered well but dropped HARD in week two. TGIT is doing quite well, but with all the promotion it got IMO at least HTGAWM should be doing better. But they do great DVR numbers.

ABC would need to premiere at least a couple of huge hits before it could afford to cancel OUAT. And Nashville and Shield would be on the chopping block first.

I think OUAT will hold steady for 502.

[sharky]

But Shield has the same advantage that Once has: cross promotion. For Shield, that means serving as an ad for the other Marvel properties, including the new Captain America movie. They're likely going to do an episode the weekend after that's released with a reaction to what happens in the movie. As for Once, it's a show with Belle and the Evil Queen and Snow White. I don't know how much that helps the other Disney properties, but the fact that Disney properties are represented in it and the fact that it's produced by ABC/Disney give it a boost. Also, let's remember the story from a few weeks ago about how much it costs to buy an ad on the show. The ratings may not be doing well overall, but they're still good enough for advertisers to pay that amount so far.

[HoodlumSheep]

Once would probably be on the chopping block before AoS. Fiege has recently talked about how they're basically gonna start using the show to introduce concepts like Inhumans, etc that will tie into later Marvel movies & shows. There's an Inhuman movie coming out in like, 2018/19 or something like that.

Once will probably get a sixth season, but after that it'll be up in the air.

Edited October 4, 2015 by HoodlumSheep

[jjjmoss]

The ratings may not be doing well overall, but they're still good enough for advertisers to pay that amount so far.

 

Well those are estimates, and they were made before the season started based on numbers from last season, whose overall ratings were practically even with the last season from the frontloaded Frozen boost. 

And ABC has to make up for underperformances of shows by giving advertisers free ads in proportion to the viewers they expected who longer come around.

 

While I agree with Hoodlum that ABC values cross promotion with Marvel movies more than theoretical cross promotion with the fairytale movies, I'm pretty sure Once will remain better-rated than Shield and it won't be an issue this season anyway.

[KAOS Agent]

Once is also helped by the fact that Castle is almost definitely in its last season. That's a long running staple that the network has been able to use on Mondays for years. Networks aren't real big on losing several of their stable shows and replacing them with risky new ones. I think unless ratings absolutely tank, Once is assured a sixth season. I wouldn't bank on a seventh though.

[sharky]

The only issue with that is Castle is a procedural so it could last longer than a serial show like Once. That being said, I think you're right that it may be on its last legs.

Edited October 5, 2015 by sharky

[retrograde]

Here is the pecking order as it currently stands.

 

Not that I expect the show to pick up any new/lapsed viewers this season, but watching tonight's episode with my husband who doesn't watch the show reminded me that 5A has a particularly complicated premise. It was difficult to explain to him that the episode was jumping between the past and present and between two realms and why. The promise of Camelot held his attention for awhile, but he eventually went off to play video games.

[Serena]

For once my prediction is right! OUAT steady at 1.8

[HoodlumSheep]

^ good for them for being steady. Maybe they'll get lucky and get bumped up a tenth. Who knows. So far Camelot has been better than anything in 4b, so I'm kind of bummed that the ratings don't quite reflect that (but it's understandable why).

[Mathius]

I think unless ratings absolutely tank, Once is assured a sixth season. I wouldn't bank on a seventh though.

That's just it, though...the ratings absolutely tanking is a VERY real and good possibility, especially in 5B, which is going to be 12 episodes. The last 12 episode arc, the Frozen one, had a staggering drop from the numbers it started with, and that's not even getting into the possibility of 5A experiencing a drop by the end. I think even the core fanbase that is left is beginning to tire of this show and its repetitiveness, and the revelation in the recent episode that there's been yet ANOTHER curse placed on Storybrooke won't help matters.

Edited October 5, 2015 by Mathius

[Curio]

4A was helped tremendously by the Frozen curiosity, so part of me thinks that ABC might push hard for some big stunt casting in 5B to try and bump the viewers back up temporarily. It's clear that the Dark Swan story isn't a huge draw to new viewers, even though it's exciting for the long-time viewers. I'm trying to think what other Disney movie would bring in a similar draw Frozen did, or what big-name actor they could convince to join the show for 12 episodes.

Edited October 5, 2015 by Curio

[Mathius]

Really, from where I'm standing there are only two possibilities here:

The ratings hold steady ala Season 3 = Season 6.

The ratings freefall ala Season 4 = Show over.

And while the ratings can be solid/steady at the start of 5A and fans praising the episodes, that can always change. 4A had many people on these boards praising it during the first few episodes, and the ratings were high. And look how it turned out by the end. Even the 4B premiere was relatively well received, and it shouldn't need to be explained how the rest of that half-season went down. So when making comments like this:

So far Camelot has been better than anything in 4b

Always be sure to keep the "SO FAR" in mind.

[HoodlumSheep]

How about Aladdin? They just released the diamond edition dvd didn't they? Although they'd probably ruin Jafar (he was awesome in Wonderland) and I'd have to rely on you all for a good support system when one of my favorite villains gets ruined. Or maybe Little Mermaid (which we've seen parts of, but they could delve into it more, bring in the real Ursula). Looking at the Disney Princess stuff they've gone through already--unless they want to tackle winnie the pooh--Aladdin and The Little Mermaid are the only big names left in my opinion.

Edited October 5, 2015 by HoodlumSheep

[Serena]

That's just it, though...the ratings absolutely tanking is a VERY real and good possibility, especially in 5B, which is going to be 12 episodes. The last 12 episode arc, the Frozen one, had a staggering drop from the numbers it started with, and that's not even getting into the possibility of 5A experiencing a drop by the end. I think even the core fanbase that is left is beginning to tire of this show and its repetitiveness, and the revelation in the recent episode that there's been yet ANOTHER curse placed on Storybrooke won't help matters.

But that had nothing to do with it being a 12-episode arc. It only dropped because the initial ratings were inflated by people checking out the show because of Frozen. If we want to talk about natural "drops", I believe the one in 2B counts. Maybe 4B had one? I don't really remember. 

 

Anecdote, but I was looking at the OnceABC Instagram earlier. They posted a pic from Camelot from 502, and I saw some comments being like "OMG love the show! But what's happening in this picture? I'm like a year behind!" and another person being like "so am I!". The marketing for this half season has been so sucky that even people who proclaim to "love" the show, and enjoy it enough to be following its Instagram page, have no idea what's even happening. The cast didn't do ONE promotional talk show - even though it looks like one was scheduled earlier this summer (GMA asked for questions for the cast). It's been a marketing failure all around.

[Curio]

Even the 4B premiere was relatively well received, and it shouldn't need to be explained how the rest of that half-season went down.

 

Was it? I thought that was one of the worst episodes of Season 4. Even before it premiered, a lot of entertainment outlets (including legitimate sites like Entertainment Weekly) were kind of hostile towards the idea of the show introducing three villains at once. I think the initial idea of introducing Maleficent, Cruella, and Ursula all at the same time was crazy enough to pique the general audience's curiosity and raise the ratings for that one episode, but the terrible quality of 4B made all of those viewers turn away.

[jaytee1812]

TV Grim Reaper thinks you've nothing to worry about.

https://twitter.com/tvgrimreaper/status/651051570763689984

[Serena]

I wonder if they'll soon move Quantico to 9 and it and Once can help each other? They're doing pretty similar ratings, but I don't know what the audience overlap is. I feel like Once skevs younger, Quantico is more the TGIT demographic.

[Mathius]

TV Grim Reaper thinks you've nothing to worry about.

https://twitter.com/tvgrimreaper/status/651051570763689984

 

But again, he assumes that the numbers will stay steady like S1 and S3.  However, it they drop dramatically like S2 and S4, then there is a cause to worry (or not, depending on whether you're hoping the show gets cancelled at this point.)

[sharky]

I don't think we're going to see a S4 drop this season. The reason for that drop was because Frozen brought a huge number of people in and then lost them. They went from a 3.5 to a 1.7 during that Frozen run because it was a cheap gimmick to bring in more viewers. Once has had steady ratings from the middle of 4B to this past Sunday. Also, the show has notoriously dropped viewers from the premiere to episode 2, which it didn't do this season. Are ratings as good as they could be? No, but that's mainly because of the mess in the season 2. We've now reached a point where this show is steady, which is more than ABC can say for some of its other offerings.

[BaggythePanther]

Don't contract negotiations come up at the end of this season though? I'd assume the cast would negotiate for a raise but would the ratings justify it? How much of an effect could this have on the show's chance for renewal?

[sharky]

There are rumors that at least Robert's contract may be coming up -- he may have signed for a shorter time period than the others -- but we've never had anything confirmed about the contracts. In fact, I want to say that someone brought up the fact that the new standard may be longer than five years. Also, you have the issue of contracts for Colin, Sean and Rebecca -- they didn't join the show until after the first season was over so their contracts may be out of sync with the rest of the cast. If there is a five-year issue, it may not apply to them. Ha! Could you imagine season 6 starts and some new curse has done something to Storybrooke so it's just a ghost town except for Hook, Zelena and Robin? ;)

[Souris]

We simply have nothing but rumors when it comes to the Once contracts. Industry standards are 7 years; even Viola Davis signed a 7-year contract for HTGAWM after S1, though she started with just a 1-year. Robert probably had enough clout to get a shorter 5-year at the start; there was one article that referred to him having a 5-year contract. Everyone else, we have nothing concrete.

 

I believe actors can renegotiate contracts at any time if the network is open to it. That's happened before when a show was an unexpected smash and the actors suddenly became more valuable (i.e., could demand more money than they signed for).

[Serena]

Viola actually had a 7-year contract from the beginning, with the stipulation that the season must be shorter so she has the opportunity to film movies as well. I think Robert's contract has a time-off stipulation as well. As for the others, I don't see any reason why they would have been allowed to sign contracts shorter than 7 years. Jane Espenson on Twitter also talked about the show being on for at least 7 years, and she would be aware of the actors' contracts.

[orza]

The standard TV contract has been 7 years for quite a while now. It's also usual that actors who join a show later get the standard contract. It's not necessary for all contracts to expire at the same time. Actors negotiate their contracts individually not as a group. Industry standard is also to bump up salaries at the end of a successful first season and then periodically after that for some or all actors, based on how their contribution to the success of the show, among other things, is perceived by the network. The Friends group negotiation back in the day was an industry anomaly. Abc went through negotiations last year for the two Castle stars and the show is now in its 8th season. There is no reason abc would have shorter contracts for this show if their standard is 7 years.

 

From everything Robert Carlyle said to the British press at the Edinburgh Film Festival last June, his family loves it in Vancouver, he likes having steady work and making a lot of money and in general is happy with his current situation and has no plans to change it. Danny Boyle also said something in a recent interview about his newest film that he has to work around RC's and JLM's TV contracts next summer or wait a few years until they run out to begin filming.