Season 29 Spoilers

[Donny Ketchum]

Based on screenshots from the challenges, at least Jon, Jaclyn, Missy, Baylor, and Natalie are good through the F8.  So definitely at least one of Reed, Keith, and Alec are going home on Wednesday.  Might be two, unless Natalie's current plan comes to fruition and both of her targets go out back-to-back.

[peachmangosteen]

Since we have such a lack of spoilers and because I just found out that discussing this stuff in the spec thread is not appropriate, I thought I'd bring some stuff here.

 

Next ep description: "A shocking tribal council leads to one of the biggest blindsides of the season. Also, an ankle injury threatens one castaway's ability to remain in the game."

 

Probst's tease: "Ah, next week holds a special place in my heart because we have a challenge that was created and designed by a very special challenge producer. Austin Russell is a thirteen year old from Texas who made a visit to location through our friends at Make A Wish. His big dream was to contribute a challenge that would end up getting used on the show and boy did he deliver! Not only is it a cool challenge involving a huge teeter-totter and buckets of water, but it ends up creating unexpected reality on the show. That is always the hope of a challenge — that it changes the game in some way. This is definitely game changing for one player. Read into that whatever you want: It’s gonna be fun!"

 

Web Promo, Press Images

 

They're really pushing a Jon blindside, which probably unfortunately means it will not happen.

[Wings]

Ok so there will be a blindside but what would be the biggest and shocking blindside of the season?  Natalie out would shock me, unfortunately. Please no!  They have been trying to blindside Jon for weeks now, so nothing shocking there.  Keith would not be shocking.  Jaclyn, Missy or Baylor might be shocking-ish, we are not expecting that.  

 

Missy has the ankle injury and she will stay in the game, no big deal there.  

[Donny Ketchum]

I actually think a Jon blindside would be shocking depending on how it was done.  If they got him to play his idol on Jaclyn instead and blindsided him, it'd be a shocker, for instance.

 

But yeah, it might be Natalie, but I hope not, as she's the last hope for saving this season.

[Wings]

I actually think a Jon blindside would be shocking depending on how it was done.  If they got him to play his idol on Jaclyn instead and blindsided him, it'd be a shocker, for instance.

 

But yeah, it might be Natalie, but I hope not, as she's the last hope for saving this season.

 

Ok, that would be shocking.  I can see Natalie hatching the plan to make Jon worry about Jaclyn being safe.  I can see her whispering now. She would be good at that.  A million dollar good plan, actually.  

[Donny Ketchum]

Ok, that would be shocking.  I can see Natalie hatching the plan to make Jon worry about Jaclyn being safe.  I can see her whispering now. She would be good at that.  A million dollar good plan, actually.  

It very well might.  A preview of the next episode at the end of Survivor Live showed Natalie spinning her story about Alec's boot to Jon and Jaclyn, and sure enough, they buy it hook, line, and sinker.  So I think she can swing it.  She has Jon totally snowed.

Edited December 9, 2014 by Donny Ketchum

[Wings]

It very well might.  A preview of the next episode at the end of Survivor Live showed Natalie spinning her story about Alec's boot to Jon and Jaclyn, and sure enough, they buy it hook, line, and sinker.  So I think she can swing it.  She has Jon totally snowed.

 

 

I can see her telling Jon that word on the street is Jaclyn is the target since they know you have an II.  We cannot be seen talking together..  And she speeds off.  Done.  Jon trusts her and she has done a stellar job at creating that!  

 

I still have a fear that Natalie is the shocking boot. 

[cooksdelight]

The last time we had a "shocking" elimination, another guy named John went home with a HII in his pocket. :)

[Wings]

 

"A shocking tribal council leads to one of the biggest blindsides of the season.

 

 

The TC is shocking.  Blindside is biggest.  So does this mean that we have another situation where someone (Keith) shoots off his mouth to expose the plan and they individually change their votes to create the biggest blindside because this person was not even on the radar going in?  

Edited December 9, 2014 by wings707

[ProfCrash]

I love the idea of Natalie getting Jon to play the idol on Jaclyn and taking out Jon. That would be sweet. The only way this works is if they lie to Keith and convince him they are voting for Missy or they duct tape his mouth shut so he can't speak at tribal and screw things up.

[cooksdelight]

I would LOVE to see Keith sitting there with his buff over his mouth. I think even Jeff would get a kick out of him being silenced.

[peachmangosteen]

Oh man, the thought of Natalie convincing Jon to use his idol on Jaclyn and then blindsiding Jon with the vote is so beautiful. I hope that's how it goes.

Edited December 9, 2014 by peachmangosteen

[Wings]

Oh man, the thought of Natalie convincing Jon to use his idol on Jaclyn and then blindsiding Jon with the vote is so beautiful. I hope that's how it goes.

 

 

I get giddy thinking about this.  If it does't happen, at least I have gotten the enjoyment from the "maybe!"  

[peachmangosteen]

Now that the possibility of it has been brought up, I will just be even more disappointed if it doesn't happen!

 

I'm wondering if maybe Missy gets blindsided. Maybe after Natalie/Baylor bring up the Jon boot to Missy and she's like "Hell no, ladies!' they're like let's just blindside Missy. I'm down for that. I'd rather it be Jon though.

Edited December 9, 2014 by peachmangosteen

[Wings]

Now that the possibility of it has been brought up, I will just be even more disappointed if it doesn't happen!

 

I'm wondering if maybe Missy gets blindsided. Maybe after Natalie/Baylor bring up the Jon boot to Missy and she's like "Hell no, ladies!' they're like let's just blindside Missy. I'm down for that. I'd rather it be Jon though.

 

 I will take any blindside other than Natalie.  It very well could be Missy.  All Baylor and Natalie need to know is that Keith is with them.  Could be Jon wins II and gives his idol to Jacklyn and they have no choice.  They need to keep Keith to help beat Jon.   Missy with an injured ankle is useless for challenges, she is only a vote and they don't need it now.  

 

The shocking part is Baylor turning on her mom.  6/zero vote is shocking I suppose. 

Edited December 9, 2014 by wings707

[Lamb18]

Last week in the episode thread I suggested the blindside of Natalie convincing John that Jaclyn's going to be voted out so that he plays his idol on her, then he gets voted out.  Keith only has to be told that everyone is voting for Jaclyn and nothing else.  So if he does flub up and says something about sticking with the plan, it actually plays into Natalie's hands, because the only plan he knows about is voting out Jaclyn.

[Hanahope]

The shocking part is Baylor turning on her mom.  6/zero vote is shocking I suppose.

 

Frankly, I think a good plan would be for Baylor and Missy to plan on Missy going to Ponderosa.  If they both go to F3, they could split votes and couldn't vote for each other.  Better to have one go to Ponderosa, be a vote for the other, and try and get other jurors on their side.  Missy could enjoy some comforts too, since everyone seems worried about her eating.

[WolfTD]

I think yall are giving CBS too much credit. Just because it would not be a surprise to us that Jon got voted out because of how they have teased it over the last few episodes does not mean that they wound't still call it the most shocking move of the season. My prediction is that Jon gets voted out with the idol in his pocket.

[Oholibamah]

I think yall are giving CBS too much credit. Just because it would not be a surprise to us that Jon got voted out because of how they have teased it over the last few episodes does not mean that they wound't still call it the most shocking move of the season. My prediction is that Jon gets voted out with the idol in his pocket.

 

This is probably true. At this point somebody could vote themselves out of the game and still get a #Blindside. And I don't mean that in the awesome Tyson sort of way.

 

But I might just be saying that to convince myself Jon will leave, paving the path for an easy Natalie win.

[cooksdelight]

I may be reading too much into our conversation, but when I had dinner with Rocker and Julie, they both said that A) they were good friends with Natalie and B) they are pretty sure they know who won. But wouldn't budge beyond that. Might be Natalie after all.

[choclatechip45]

Interesting article http://isportsweb.com/2014/12/03/michigan-state-football-former-spartan-jon-misch-survives-nicaragua/ turns out Jaclyn was the one who got the call from CBS and Jon was the tagalong

[Donny Ketchum]

Interesting article http://isportsweb.com/2014/12/03/michigan-state-football-former-spartan-jon-misch-survives-nicaragua/ turns out Jaclyn was the one who got the call from CBS and Jon was the tagalong

That explains Jon's complacency most of the time.  He does seem to grasp some basics of the game, but he's clearly behind when it comes to many others.  Meanwhile, Jaclyn seems on top of things way more than he was, just like a true fan should be.  Interesting reading that she's the bigger fan.

Edited December 11, 2014 by Donny Ketchum

[peachmangosteen]

The new preview is saying there's "1 Final Blindside," so I'm now pretty convinced Natalie isn't making FTC. Boo! The only other thing I can think is Baylor voting out Missy.

[cooksdelight]

Let's hope it's Baylor voting out her mother. Who's done nothing to warrant making the final 3.

[riverblue22]

I can imagine Natalie convincing Baylor to vote out Missy.  Baylor and Missy in the final three could split the votes for them and leave the third person the winner. (Not that I think Baylor or Missy would get many votes but they probably don't know that).

[peachmangosteen]

That's part of why I have a hard time seeing Natalie cutting Missy. She wins easily in a F3 with Missy and Baylor. 

 

But I hope she does because the only other option is probably Missy convincing Baylor to turn on Natalie and I really don't want that to happen. But, sadly, I think that seems more plausible.

 

But hey, maybe then we'd get the hilariously awful Jaclyn/Missy/Baylor F3, which I would enjoy.

Edited December 14, 2014 by peachmangosteen

[Wings]

That's part of why I have a hard time seeing Natalie cutting Missy. She wins easily in a F3 with Missy and Baylor. 

 

But I hope she does because the only other option is probably Missy convincing Baylor to turn on Natalie and I really don't want that to happen. But, sadly, I think that seems more plausible.

 

But hey, maybe then we'd get the hilariously awful Jaclyn/Missy/Baylor F3, which I would enjoy.

 

 

Who are you and what have you done with peach?!    Hilariously awful F3?  NOOOOOOOOO!  Take it back. 

Edited December 15, 2014 by wings707

[peachmangosteen]

I would love a Jaclyn/Missy/Baylor F3 TBH. I think it'd be funny. Plus I actually kinda love Baylor and still like Jaclyn. I don't like Missy, but I think she's a decent player worthy of winning this season.

 

The original promo I was referring to didn't include any actual clips, but this new one does.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eBmeecbXX78

 

I don't know whether or not to be glad they show Natalie after the blindside claim.

Edited December 14, 2014 by peachmangosteen

[Cutty]

The new preview is saying there's "1 Final Blindside," so I'm now pretty convinced Natalie isn't making FTC. Boo! The only other thing I can think is Baylor voting out Missy.

Agreed. The thing that gives me pause is Natalie was in the preview talking about being worried because she's made big moves. I'm not sure you could classify her voted out at F4 a blindside anyway, and especially not if she's worried. So part of me thinks (hopes) it's Baylor turning on Missy.

In Jon's exit interview he mentioned that the group plan was Baylor and Jaclyn sacrificing themselves and him and Missy going to the end with Natalie. Which I still don't understand.

I would hate a Jac/Bay/Missy F3 because I think they would give Jaclyn the win, and she is wholly undeserving. She would easily be the worst winner in the show's history.

Edited December 14, 2014 by Cutty

[cooksdelight]

Sounded like Missy is already counting on her and Baylor splitting the money, no matter which one wins it.

[peachmangosteen]

Agreed. The thing that gives me pause is Natalie was in the preview talking about being worried because she's made big moves. I'm not sure you could classify her voted out at F4 a blindside anyway, and especially not if she's worried. So part of me thinks (hopes) it's Baylor turning on Missy.

Yea, when they showed Natalie saying she was worried I thought, "Well then it's not a blindside," and got optimistic about Natalie not being in danger.

 

In Jon's exit interview he mentioned that the group plan was Baylor and Jaclyn sacrificing themselves and him and Missy going to the end with Natalie. Which I still don't understand.

LOL what? How awful. I'm glad Baylor forced Missy to cut Jon. I would love it if she votes Missy out just because it'd be hilarious. But it doesn't make much sense to me for Natalie and Baylor to even want to do it. Unless maybe Keith wins immunity and they figure Jaclyn's a better bet to keep than Missy.

 

Someone elsewhere was bringing up the possibility of Missy voting out Baylor, but I just don't see it happening. She would look pretty awful.

 

ETA: Thinking about it more, if the above about Jaclyn/Baylor agreeing to sacrifice themselves for Jon/Missy is true, maybe Missy would vote out Baylor because Baylor would sacrifice herself for Missy. But then it wouldn't be a blindside. Although, it'd be a blindside to the audience, I think, if Baylor did that.

 

If that does happen, I guess the F3 would be Jaclyn/Missy/Natalie, barring a Keith IC run, in which case I still say Natalie wins.

Edited December 14, 2014 by peachmangosteen

[choclatechip45]

 

In Jon's exit interview he mentioned that the group plan was Baylor and Jaclyn sacrificing themselves and him and Missy going to the end with Natalie. Which I still don't understand.

According to Josh's exit interviews him and Reed had the same plan if they made the final 4.

[pennben]

from a post in the episode thread by mostlikely: 

 

 

Since Final 5 is the last time that a HII can be played, I hope Natalie can get herself sent to Exile Island to pick up Jon's re-hidden one. She can give it to Keith or Baylor and then boot the survivor of her choice.

 

I'm not necessarily thinking about Nat finding it, but I hadn't thought about a reseed of the HII that Jon had.  Could this explain the final blindside?

[Nashville]

from a post in the episode thread by mostlikely: 

 

 

I'm not necessarily thinking about Nat finding it, but I hadn't thought about a reseed of the HII that Jon had.  Could this explain the final blindside?

 

As in:

1. Jaclyn, being on the outs with everybody after Jon's eviction, gets sent to EI after the reward comp.
2. Unbeknownst to the rest, the idol has been reintroduced - and Jaclyn finds it.
3. Someone other than Jaclyn wins individual immunity, so all guns are trained on Jaclyn as an easy out.
4. ...until Jaclyn pulls out the idol - after which it is revealed everybody BUT Jaclyn voted for Jaclyn.
5. Whoever Jaclyn voted for, goes to Jury.

 

My guess would be either Missy or Natalie, depending upon (a) who won II and (b) how supremely overconfident Natalie may feel about not needing to play her idol.

 

 

ETA:

 

P.S.: Jon and Jaclyn never did know about the idol Natalie/Baylor found, did they?  Interesting....

Edited December 15, 2014 by Nashville

[pennben]

Exactly Nashville, I didn't mean to ignore you over there, I had moved myself over here to discuss with the "blindside" thought from the previiews before I saw your post.

 

Good lord, if Natalie doesn't play her idol, welp, yes this would just be....this season.

[kikaha]

Nashville, interesting speculation.  The only reason I could imagine Nat not playing her idol at F5 is if she feels totally secure and thinks she can play it at F4. 

[ProfCrash]

The only way Jaclyn goes to Exile this week is if Keith wins reward and sends her. Natalie is been shown to be enough of a gamer that she will talk to Baylor and Missy and make sure one of the three of them goes to Exile if one of them wins reward. The only way that changes is if it is a team thing and Missy sits out and Natalie and Baylor end up on the same team. If they win they would not send Missy. Send Jaclyn and hope Keith doesn't win immunity.

[peachmangosteen]

The only reason I could imagine Nat not playing her idol at F5 is if she feels totally secure and thinks she can play it at F4. 

 

It expires at F5 though, right? 

 

Good lord, if Natalie doesn't play her idol, welp, yes this would just be....this season.

 

LOL I can't imagine Natalie being dumb enough to not play it, but this season is so nuts, that anything is possible!

 

I didn't even consider the blindside coming about because someone finds Jon's EI idol because I didn't think they'd rehide it since it expires this TC (or so I think), but they probably will because they're obsessed with HIIs. Ugh!

[Wings]

Chilling thought, Nashville.  It is hard for me to see Natalie not winning, so there is that.  She says she is nervous in the promo.  I take that as her being safe and I will admit to selective and positive thinking. 

[Nashville]

Chilling thought, Nashville.  It is hard for me to see Natalie not winning, so there is that.  She says she is nervous in the promo.  I take that as her being safe and I will admit to selective and positive thinking. 

 

Like you, I take Natalie's mention of nervousness in the teaser as a definite indication she is NOT the one to ultimately be blindsided.

 

But then again - to paraphrase Robert Stack's character in Airplane - that's just what they'd expect us to think.

 

"They", in this case, being Production.

[cooksdelight]

I will bet you anything that right after she says she's nervous, she says "But I've got an idol that I'm going to play tonight, the last night, and I'll be fine."

[peachmangosteen]

The finale press images are out here.

 

Assuming this is of the F4 IC since there are only 4 lanes and going by the promo, Keith makes F4.

[ProfCrash]

So Jaclyn, Baylor, Keith, and Natalie.

 

Baylor/Keith/Natalie final three.

 

Natalie: Jeremy, Reed, Josh, Jon, Jaclyn

Baylor: Missy

Keith: Wes, Alec

 

Jaclyn/Keith/Natalie

 

Natalie: Jeremy, Reed, Josh, Missy, Baylor

Jaclyn: Jon

Keith: Wes, Alec

 

Jaclyn/Baylor/Keith

 

Keith: Wes, Alec

Jaclyn: Jon, Reed, Josh, Jeremy

Baylor: Missy, Natalie (allies)

Honestly, I am not sure how the rest of the votes go. Reed, Josh and Jeremy probably go with Jaclyn because she at least made some game moves and they are Survivor fans and see themselves as strategists. I can't see them voting for Keith because he was awful at the social and strategic game. He didn't vote for Jeremy, so he does not get credit for any of that, and he screwed up Reed's move to get rid of Jon. Toss in the Neanderthal behavior which turned Jaclyn off and led to the Josh vote out, and Keith does not get Josh and Reed's vote. There is no way they vote for Baylor based on their dislike of Baylor and Missy. So Jaclyn gets those votes by default with some lame game play excuse.

[cooksdelight]

I personally don't see Jaclyn getting any votes other than Jon's. No one approached her and kissed her ass, and she let them know her displeasure about that. They also may see her as letting Jon do all the work for her.

If anyone is in the L.A. area and you want to perhaps meet some of these people, the show usually has them stay at the Sheraton by LAX. They've put them up there for the last 4 or 5 years.

http://www.starwoodhotels.com/sheraton/property/photos/index.html?propertyID=344&language=en_US&localeCode=en_US

[ProfCrash]

I don't disagree with you, Jaclyn has been playing like an entitled princess. She has complained about them not talking to her, to which they have either said they did or she never talked to them, she has complained about the burping/farting/spitting, and she threw an impressive tantrum that screwed Reed over.

 

But I cannot see the same folks voting for Keith because he actively screwed their game over with his awful play. And none of them have had anything positive to say about Baylor so she cannot get votes from them.  Which leaves Jaclyn as someone who at least was on the right side of most of the votes and some ok game play.

 

Seriously, a Baylor, Jaclyn, Keith final three would be worse then the prospect of a Wu/Kass final two last year. At least you could argue that Kass, as annoying as she was, played the game. I am not sure you can make that claim for a Keith, Baylor, Jaclyn final three. I think my final three question would be pick a number and the person closest to it would get my vote because that is about as strategic a move as any that they made.

[cooksdelight]

I'd vote for Keith just because the old fart hung in there with those women long enough and he seemed to really be helpful around camp. He was always gathering wood, making fires, etc. And he literally carried Missy around after she got hurt. I think there may be a compassionate and kind side to Keith that the cameras aren't showing us.

[ProfCrash]

Agreed, and those are as good a reason as any but do you think Reed will vote for him after he sunk the blindside Jon plan and screwed over Reed? Do you think Josh votes for him after he was part of the reason Jaclyn voted with Jeremy's alliance and got him voted out? I can't see Jeremy getting over the fact that keith does not understand the concept of a sub alliance or a hidden alliance.

 

Jeremy, Josh, and Reed are super fans. One of Reed's first comments after being voted out was that he was kind of excited to have his torch snuffed by Jeff.  All three see themselves as strategists. I have difficulty seeing them voting for one of the least strategic players to ever play the game. Their problem is that it is hard to argue that Baylor or Jaclyn played a good strategic game. The more interviews I read, the more I see that the jury members are saying that they worked with Jon and did not talk to Jaclyn, because she never wanted to talk to them. So I don't think she will get much credit for making the finals. Baylor is deemed a brat, lazy, and a number of less then positive words.

 

So in the face of three non-strategic players Keith could win because he worked hard around camp, was a nice guy, and won immunity.

[peachmangosteen]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xbxhy2zaQZk

 

I didn't watch the whole thing, but it seems like it might be from the opening on the finale, which I normally skip.

 

I think Baylor/Missy have played a better strategic game than Jaclyn, but I also think Jaclyn has played a better strategic game than she'd probably get credit for with the jury. I totally want a Baylor/Missy/Jaclyn F3 just for the hilarity.

 

I say if Natalie in the finals with anyone she wins and if Keith is in the finals with anyone but Natalie he wins. I think Jaclyn/Missy/Baylor's only chance is if they're all in the F3 together.

Edited December 16, 2014 by peachmangosteen

[Cutty]

The finale press images are out here.

 

Assuming this is of the F4 IC since there are only 4 lanes and going by the promo, Keith makes F4.

 

Welp. I'm now convinced Missy is the blindside at F5. They have run some variation of that IC at F4 before. There's no way Missy would even be able to compete. Not to go all conspiracy theorist but if that's how it plays out you have to wonder how much production interference there was to make sure there wasn't a player sitting out the FIC.

 

So Keith wins immunity at F5. Baylor and Missy think it's gonna be Jaclyn, but Natalie wants to keep her to have someone who can beat Keith in the final immunity challenge. Natalie, Keith, Jaclyn vote Missy out.

[Special K]

Most hilarious/repulsive part of that promo is Keith's slow-motion spittle.  

 

Clearly the editors could not contain themselves.