2018 Awards Season

[GHScorpiosRule]

10 hours ago, thuganomics85 said:

BEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY

Margot Robbie – I, Tonya — WINNER

I, Tonya is a comedy??? Really???

[absnow54]

I, Tonya is a comedy??? Really???

I mean, not to Nancy Kerigan, but I haven't heard it categorized as anything else. I haven't seen it, but all the previews show a satirical dramatization.

No big curve balls in the CCA last night. All the acting winners held over from the Golden Globes (although Saoirse Ronan falls further behind Frances McDormand in the Best Actress race.) There was a little less love for Three Bilboards with Get Out and Call Me By Your Name picking up the writing awards and Shape of Water winning Best Picture. I still think The Shape of Waters chances are slim though, without a SAG nomination for ensemble.

[SeanC]

1 hour ago, GHScorpiosRule said:

I, Tonya is a comedy??? Really???

A dark comedy, yes, from all reports.

[Shannon L.]

55 minutes ago, SeanC said:

A dark comedy, yes, from all reports.

I've seen it and yes, it's a done as a dark comedy.  I also agree with the nominations it's getting. 

[SeanC]

A while ago in the race I talked about how I was skeptical about Kaluuya getting into Best Actor when all the media attention is on Peele, but at this point Kaluuya feels like a fairly solid bet for a nomination while Peele will probably be kept in suspense until the day of.  How things change.

In any event, I think Kaluuya and Spencer stave off #OscarSoWhite at this juncture.

[Silver Raven]

3 hours ago, SeanC said:

A while ago in the race I talked about how I was skeptical about Kaluuya getting into Best Actor when all the media attention is on Peele, but at this point Kaluuya feels like a fairly solid bet for a nomination while Peele will probably be kept in suspense until the day of.  How things change.

In any event, I think Kaluuya and Spencer stave off #OscarSoWhite at this juncture.

There are good chances for 3 or 4 actresses of color to get nominations.

[absnow54]

Wonder Woman made the PGA cut, so it still has an ounce of a chance for an Academy Award nod. They had 11 nominees this year, so the film would have to beat out Molly's Game for the slot, which is the only other title I would consider a wild card. Winner's announced on Saturday, although the PGAs have been wrong the last two award seasons for predicting the Oscars.

[SeanC]

27 minutes ago, absnow54 said:

Wonder Woman made the PGA cut, so it still has an ounce of a chance for an Academy Award nod. They had 11 nominees this year, so the film would have to beat out Molly's Game for the slot, which is the only other title I would consider a wild card. Winner's announced on Saturday, although the PGAs have been wrong the last two award seasons for predicting the Oscars.

In practice there has never been ten nominees since the Academy switched to a floating number of slots, so it would probably need to be in the top nine at least.

[scarynikki12]

PGA is more willing to go outside the box with their nominees. On the plus side, I think this guarantees a nomination for The Big Sick!

[SeanC]

The Shape of Water somewhat surprisingly nabs the win at the PGA.  If it hadn't weirdly missed a SAG Ensemble nod, this would be the undisputed frontrunner; I think it's in the lead right now regardless, particularly since Three Billboards, its most obvious competition at this point, just seems too abrasive to muster 50%+1 on a preferential ballot.  I'm long on record as think Shape is too weird to get there, but events seem to be showing otherwise.

Coco and Jane collect Animated Feature and Documentary, respectively.

[AshleyN]

Kind of hoping one of Lady Bird or Get Out wins SAG ensemble tonight, the other wins WGA and/or DGA, and Dunkirk wins BAFTA. It seems fitting given how this season has gone for things to remain a clusterfuck right up until the end.

I agree with you about The Shape of Water though: that SAG snub is really the only big knock against its chances at this point, especially since it's not even a case like Gravity or La La Land where there just isn't an "ensemble" to reward. That being said, it's major competitors all have weaknesses too, so maybe it just won't matter.

Speaking of SAG, it'll be interesting to see if Willem Dafoe or Laurie Metcalf can climb back into the race tonight or if they'll remain a critics-only thing. I haven't seen The Florida Project but I'm really rooting for Metcalf.

It's also kind of nuts that, while I'd pick McDormand if I had to, I could honestly see any of the non-Dench Best Actress nominees winning tonight?

Edited January 21, 2018 by AshleyN

[SeanC]

14 minutes ago, AshleyN said:

I agree with you about The Shape of Water though: that SAG snub is really the only big knock against its chances at this point, especially since it's not even a case like Gravity or La La Land where there just isn't an "ensemble" to reward. That being said, it's major competitors all have weaknesses too, so maybe it just won't matter.

The weirdest thing is that TSOW has three individual acting nominations, so it's not like the voters didn't like it either.

[NUguy514]

1 hour ago, SeanC said:

The weirdest thing is that TSOW has three individual acting nominations, so it's not like the voters didn't like it either.

No, it only has two: Hawkins and Jenkins (the latter of whom I voted for). I’d have voted for the ensemble, too, had it been nominated.

[SeanC]

26 minutes ago, NUguy514 said:

No, it only has two: Hawkins and Jenkins (the latter of whom I voted for). I’d have voted for the ensemble, too, had it been nominated.

Ah, right, I forgot that Spencer missed SAG.

[SeanC]

SAG Awards:

Quote

Ensemble - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Actor - Oldman

Actress - McDormand

Supporting Actor - Rockwell

Supporting Actress - Janney

Stunt Ensemble - Wonder Woman

The individual winners all have to be considered the heavy favourites at this point.

Janney is an interesting case in that she was the presumptive frontrunner for much of the year, then fell behind Metcalf during the critics' awards phase, but she's firmly back in control of the narrative now.  There's clearly a passionate I, Tonya fanbase in the industry that is making rewarding her the presumptive way to honour the film, not to mention she's a well-respected actress.

Edited January 22, 2018 by SeanC

[thuganomics85]

Damn, sorry Dafoe, but you are done for, buddy.  I had him pegged early on, but it seems like his momentum just bottomed out after the initial critical praise.

Smart money is definitely on the SAG winners getting the Oscars.  Actress could still be a competition, but I think Frances beating out both Saoirse and Margot is likely the victory she needed to go all the way.  I can't see anyway beating Oldman at this point, since no one seems to be building buzz to be a legit threat against him (the closest was Franco, but I imagine he suffered a huge blow after he was accused of harassment.)  But Rockwell and Janney are so getting those trophies, I think.

At this point, I'm guessing Best Picture is a toss up between Shape of Water and Three Billboards (with Del Toro a frontrunner for director and McDonagh a likely screenplay winner), but it's still too hard to tell.  I will stick with the first one for now, since I do think the backlash against Billboards will be enough to prevent it from getting enough votes.  But perhaps there will be some woh still find Shape of Water too weird, and something like Lady Bird manages to pull an upset.

[NUguy514]

Well...that was a supremely disappointing group of SAG film actors.  I may not be able to stomach watching the Oscars this year.

[scarynikki12]

@Shannon L. you need to see Three Billboards asap!

[scarynikki12]

I’m leaning towards Shape taking it but I’ll feel more confident if DGA goes it’s way. If I can’t have Get Out or Big Sick winning then I want Lady Bird but that’s looking more and more unlikely. 

[AshleyN]

It feels a little strange that unless something very unexpected happens, none of the critical darlings are going to win acting Oscars this year. I know critics love doesn't always equal industry love but there's usually at least one that goes all the way, isn't there?

Also, unless one of them can upset Three Billboards in Screenplay, it's looking increasingly likely to me that both Lady Bird and Get Out will be completely shut out at the Oscars. I can't imagine that going over well.

[Shannon L.]

2 hours ago, scarynikki12 said:

@Shannon L. you need to see Three Billboards asap!

Oh God...i really have no interest in it, but then I don't have any interest in a lot of them this year. What movie did you want to win?

[scarynikki12]

I’d be happy with Lady Bird or Shape Of Water if you haven’t seen them.

[Shannon L.]

24 minutes ago, scarynikki12 said:

I’d be happy with Lady Bird or Shape Of Water if you haven’t seen them.

I have no interest in Shape of Water, but I wouldn't mind seeing Lady Bird, if I get the chance. 

[scarynikki12]

5 minutes ago, Shannon L. said:

I have no interest in Shape of Water, but I wouldn't mind seeing Lady Bird, if I get the chance. 

I really liked Lady Bird and I hope it’s still in theaters/on dvd after the Oscars. Moonlight came out the week it won so maybe the distributor will do the same?

[Spartan Girl]

So even though "Remember Me" from Coco will probably win Best Song, I hope "Evermore" from Beuaty and the Beast at least gets nominated. That was my favorite new song from the movie.

[Silver Raven]

7 hours ago, Spartan Girl said:

So even though "Remember Me" from Coco will probably win Best Song, I hope "Evermore" from Beuaty and the Beast at least gets nominated. That was my favorite new song from the movie.

Though I didn't like the movie that much, "This is Me" from The Greatest Showman is my favorite.  And it might help to make Keala Settle a star, which she really deserves.

Edited January 23, 2018 by Silver Raven

[Silver Raven]

The Razzie nominations are out:

 

WORST PICTURE 
Baywatch 
The Emoji Movie 
Fifty Shades Darker 
The Mummy 
Transformers: The Last Knight 

WORST ACTRESS 
Katherine Heigl / Unforgettable
Dakota Johnson / Fifty Shades Darker 
Jennifer Lawrence / mother!
Tyler Perry / Boo 2!: A Madea Halloween 
Emma Watson / The Circle

WORST ACTOR 
Tom Cruise / The Mummy 
Johnny Depp / Pirates of The Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales 
Jamie Dornan / Fifty Shades Darker 
Zac Efron / Baywatch 
Mark Wahlberg / Daddy’s Home 2 & Transformers: The Last Knight

WORST SUPPORTING ACTOR 
Javier Bardem / mother! & Pirates of The Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales
Russell Crowe / The Mummy 
Josh Duhamel / Transformers: The Last Knight 
Mel Gibson / Daddy’s Home 2 
Anthony Hopkins / Collide & Transformers: The Last Knight

WORST SUPPORTING ACTRESS 
Kim Basinger / Fifty Shades Darker 
Sofia Boutella / The Mummy 
Laura Haddock / Transformers: The Last Knight 
Goldie Hawn / Snatched 
Susan Sarandon / A Bad Moms Christmas

WORST SCREEN COMBO 
Any Combination of Two Characters, Two Sex Toys or Two Sexual Positions / Fifty Shades Darker 
Any Combination of Two Humans, Two Robots or Two Explosions / Transformers: The Last Knight
Any Two Obnoxious Emojis / The Emoji Movie 
Johnny Depp & His Worn Out Drunk Routine / Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales 
Tyler Perry & Either The Ratty Old Dress or Worn Out Wig / Boo 2!: A Madea Halloween

WORST REMAKE, RIP-OFF or SEQUEL 
Baywatch 
Boo 2!: A Madea Halloween 
Fifty Shades Darker 
The Mummy 
Transformers: The Last Knight

WORST DIRECTOR 
Darren Aronofsky / mother!
Michael Bay / Transformers: The Last Knight
James Foley / Fifty Shades Darker 
Alex Kurtzman / The Mummy
Anthony (Tony) Leonidis / The Emoji Movie 

WORST SCREENPLAY
Baywatch 
The Emoji Movie 
Fifty Shades Darker 
The Mummy 
Transformers: The Last Knight

[SeanC]

Wow, it turns out this actually was Netflix’s breakthrough year.  Three nominations for Mudbound, two in big categories (and two of the three nominations were for Mary J. Blige).

Martin McDonagh was dropped from Best Director for PTA, which is a poor turn of events for Three Billboards.

Christopher Plummer ended up snagging another nomination (his third, all of them earned while he was in his 80s; I believe he’s now the oldest acting nominee ever).

[hendersonrocks]

The Big Sick got a screenwriting nod! That makes me giddy. Excited about Jordan Peele’s directing nom, too. The list seems like it has a few surprises (heyyyyyy Denzel, maybe send James Franco a fruit basket) but I don’t really know if it’s enough to change course for any of the likely winners.

[SeanC]

Oh, and Denzel’s surprise nomination makes him the most nominated actor of the Baby Boom generation, with 8.  He was previously tied with Jeff Bridges for that distinction (both with 7).

[absnow54]

Is Denzel Washington the default "well the other guy seems like a dick so..." because last year he upset Casey Affleck at the SAGs and this year he snatched an Oscar nom that seemed reserved for James Franco.

I'm bummed that The Big Sick didn't nab a Best Picture nomination. I know it had no chance of winning, but it was just such a nice film. Also boo that Holly Hunter didn't make the supporting list. The Academy seemed to really like Phantom Thread...

[Qoass]

Can I just say that I found the Oscar nominations announcements complete with Tweets, vignettes and non-stop delivery stumbles to be incredibly awful?

Just stand in front of a screen and announce, please.

[Shannon L.]

I completely forgot about the nominations today and I'm up every day at 5:30am.  Damn.  I don't think I'd like all that extra stuff, either @Qoass.

This is the first year I thought seriously about getting the AMC two day, Oscar nominee tickets, and unfortunately, I can't get excited about 5 of the movies nominated*.  Maybe next year. 

*Not that I won't watch the show--I love the spectacle of it all.  At least with the internet, I've seen enough clips and read enough about them that I know what they're about and can get an idea of why they were nominated. 

ETA:  I really expected to see Wonder Woman in the Costume category and hope that King Kong wins special effects. That looked great on both the big screen and on tv (sometimes they don't translate well). 

Edited January 23, 2018 by Shannon L.

[thuganomics85]

List of nominees, for anyone interested.

Nothing too surprising, although Martin McDonagh failing to get a director's nod is a pretty big hit for Three Billboard's chances, I imagine, even though it still got a bunch of nods (even Woody Harrelson got in a Supporting Actor nod alongside Rockwell.)  Also, it looks like Franco had enough backlash not to make it, although was Denzel the only other option (I mean, I love Denzel, but I haven't heard many good things about his performance in Roman J. Israel, Esq?)

At least The Big Sick and Logan got screenplay nods, even though I wish it got much more.

Seems like The Phantom Thread got a lot of last minute love by the Academy.  But if I was betting man, I'm going to put The Shape of Water as my top choice now.

[Irlandesa]

On 1/21/2018 at 10:51 PM, thuganomics85 said:

  I can't see anyway beating Oldman at this point, since no one seems to be building buzz to be a legit threat against him (the closest was Franco, but I imagine he suffered a huge blow after he was accused of harassment.) 

I think if Franco were close, he would have likely made it. I've always had him as 5th.

23 minutes ago, thuganomics85 said:

was Denzel the only other option (I mean, I love Denzel, but I haven't heard many good things about his performance in Roman J. Israel, Esq?)

There was Hanks.  Jake G  or Robert P as well, although they don't really have much recognition this season.  Denzel surprised me a bit.  I was expecting Hanks over Denzel simply based on the box office of their  respective movies.

[vb68]

1 hour ago, SeanC said:

Martin McDonagh was dropped from Best Director for PTA, which is a poor turn of events for Three Billboards.

 

48 minutes ago, thuganomics85 said:

Nothing too surprising, although Martin McDonagh failing to get a director's nod is a pretty big hit for Three Billboard's chances,

I guess I disagree. At least I'm not seeing why it's such a big deal for its Best Picture chances. As we know the trend the past few years has been to honor different directors from the Best Picture. I just get flashbacks to Ben Affleck and Argo.  Maybe it wins and maybe it doesn't.  I think it's a positive sign that Woody Harrelson got nominated. I wasn't expecting that. 

[absnow54]

Three Billboards also made it back into the writing category (it missed out on the WGA) which has been more of a deciding factor for Best Picture than director in recent years. If Three Billboards had lost the SAG, I would put Shape of Water as the front runner, because the Acting Guild seems to be the most responsive to backlash, and while I see problematic commentary about Three Billboards on Twitter and message boards, it hasn't really hit mainstream reports (in the same way as James Franco, for example.)

[SeanC]

28 minutes ago, vb68 said:

I guess I disagree. At least I'm not seeing why it's such a big deal for its Best Picture chances. As we know the trend the past few years has been to honor different directors from the Best Picture. I just get flashbacks to Ben Affleck and Argo.  Maybe it wins and maybe it doesn't.  I think it's a positive sign that Woody Harrelson got nominated. I wasn't expecting that. 

It’s not impossible to win without a directing nomination, but it’s rare.  

[absnow54]

Both front runners are facing equally rare statistics. 4 films in 89 ceremonies have won picture without a best director nomination (about 4.5%) while 1 film in 23 ceremonies has won best picture without a SAG nomination (about 4.3%). Interestingly enough, Lady Bird or Get Out should have the best chances of winning based on the awards it's been nominated for (although they missed out on BAFTAs which is also fairly consistent for at least nominating the future best picture.) Basically, I really think Best Picture is a toss up this year, but my gut says Three Billboards will take it.

[vb68]

43 minutes ago, SeanC said:

It’s not impossible to win without a directing nomination, but it’s rare.  

Rare sure, but I don't think it's the kiss of death it use to be by any means.

 

10 minutes ago, absnow54 said:

but my gut says Three Billboards will take it.

That's my gut too even if I still think Ladybird fits the narrative of the year so well.

Not at all surprised about Franco.

[Spartan Girl]

Wait, so Logan gets a nomination (which is awesome, btw), but they still snub Wonder Woman and Lego Batman?!  BOOOOOOOOO!

Glad Get Out gets Best Movie, Actor, and Director.  I would love it if Jordan Peele beat Guillermo del Toro, though it's probably unlikely.

But I'm SO MAD that "Evermore" from Beauty and the Beast didn't even get the Best Song nomination!  Even people that didn't like the movie liked that song!

[AshleyN]

I had a feeling the Directors branch would throw a wrench in there somewhere -- they rarely follow the script completely -- but I figured Guadagnino or Sean Baker would take the passion pick spot. Paul Thomas Anderson makes perfect sense in retrospect though: he's a highly admired past nominee, everyone who saw Phantom Thread seemed to adore it, and the late release explains the lack of precursor attention. Selfishly, I'm just hoping that these nominations mean it might expand into enough theaters to makes it to my city.

8 hours ago, vb68 said:

I guess I disagree. At least I'm not seeing why it's such a big deal for its Best Picture chances. As we know the trend the past few years has been to honor different directors from the Best Picture. I just get flashbacks to Ben Affleck and Argo.  Maybe it wins and maybe it doesn't.  I think it's a positive sign that Woody Harrelson got nominated. I wasn't expecting that. 

I think Argo was a much stronger frontrunner than Three Billboards though, and Affleck's snub was a huge shock (he pretty much swept the other non-critics Director awards) which arguably galvanize its supporters.

7 hours ago, SeanC said:

It’s not impossible to win without a directing nomination, but it’s rare.  

Yeah, I think generally speaking if a movie has broad enough support to win Best Picture it should probably have enough to at least make the top 5 in Director. And while I know everyone will be making Argo comparisons the first movie I actually thought of here was Spotlight which, like Three Billboards, was considered to be more of a screenplay and actor driven film. But despite actually having a shakier precursor run than McDonagh (he missed BAFTA), Tom McCarthy still managed to show up at the Oscars. Of course, that's not a perfect comparison either, since Spotlight was kind of in the opposite position in the race to Three Billboards, as the consensus choice against two more polarizing rivals.

So yeah, I don't think this kills the movie's chances -- it is still the favourite to win Screenplay and two acting awards, which could be enough to carry it the rest of the way -- but it is a hit.

Edited January 24, 2018 by AshleyN

[Shannon L.]

I watched Baby Driver again last night and I can't see another film winning for Sound Editing.  It's simply amazing.

[scarynikki12]

I just got home from seeing Phantom Thread and I'm even more upset that The Big Sick didn't get a Best Picture nomination.  What a boring movie.  The trailer was more interesting and exciting.  It will rightly win Costume Design, as the clothes are lovely, and it has some other things going for it (set design, score, and acting) but none of that makes up for just how freaking dull it is.  Bad choice for DDL's retirement movie.

[SeanC]

American Cinema Editors Awards:

Quote

Best Edited Feature Film/Dramatic:  Lee Smith (Dunkirk)
Best Edited Feature Comedy:   Tatiana S. Riegel (I, Tonya)
Animated Feature:   Steve Bloom (Coco)

Art Directors Guild Awards:

Quote

Fantasy Film:  Blade Runner 2049
Contemporary Film:  Logan
Animated Feature:  Coco
Period Film:  The Shape of Water

Edited January 28, 2018 by SeanC

[scarynikki12]

I finally saw Shape of Water and, while my top choices are still Get Out and Lady Bird, I wouldn't be upset in the slightest to see this win Best Picture.  Hopefully the PGA will be the accurate predictor this year and maybe some voters will also look at this as an opportunity to reward del Toro (who is always brilliant and this was no exception) for his career like they will do with actors. 

The Oscar shorts will be at the indie theater near me starting next week and I enjoy those just as much as the features.  Last year I successfully guessed the winner of all three categories and I'm hoping my luck holds again.

[BetterButter]

Guillermo del Toro Wins Directors Guild Award for ‘The Shape of Water’

[ruby24]

The Shape of Water winning the PGA/DGA bodes well for its chances....but La La Land won that last year too and didn't win in the end. You can't always tell what's going to happen with the preferential ballot. I still think there's a chance for Get Out or Lady Bird.

I think what wins the WGA next week could be very telling. IF it's either Get Out or Lady Bird then one of those two has a chance to upset.

[scarynikki12]

Get Out and Call Me By Your Name won at the WGA awards.

[thuganomics85]

Get Out winning will definitely make things interesting!