2018 Awards Season

[starri]

So, we're back to last year, where the major branches of the Academy have split.  Actors for Three Billboards, writers for Get Out and CMBYN, and the producers and directors for Shape of Water.

While I have no idea how that will impact the latter's Best Picture chances, I guess del Toro winning Best Director is a given now.  I would also dearly love if James Ivory got Best Adapted, since he's somehow never won an Oscar.

[methodwriter85]

On 1/21/2018 at 11:51 PM, thuganomics85 said:

Damn, sorry Dafoe, but you are done for, buddy.  I had him pegged early on, but it seems like his momentum just bottomed out after the initial critical praise.

The Florida Project just isn't that good of a movie. It did have a grit and it did a gritty job at showcasing poverty in the suburbs instead of the usual small towns or urban areas, but something about it just didn't quite work.

[scarynikki12]

Three Billboards won Best Film at BAFTA.  Sigh, we should prepare ourselves.

[absnow54]

Three Billboards has the British advantage at the BAFTAs, but they still gave best director to del Toro, which bodes well for him (even though at this point best director is as locked up as all the acting awards.) Best Picture this years seems to be a grab bag, but I'm still going with Three Billboards since it's been the most consistent pick of an inconsistent field.

[hendersonrocks]

Quote

Three Billboards won Best Film at BAFTA.  Sigh, we should prepare ourselves.

And the same four actors won too (McDormand, Oldman, Janney, Rockwell). Three Billboards also won for original screenplay, Call Me By Your Name for adapted. Full list of winners here.

It seems like it will be a very predictable Oscars.

[methodwriter85]

9 hours ago, hendersonrocks said:

And the same four actors won too (McDormand, Oldman, Janney, Rockwell). Three Billboards also won for original screenplay, Call Me By Your Name for adapted. Full list of winners here.

It seems like it will be a very predictable Oscars.

It kind of seems like Lady Bird peaked too early for Laurie Metcalf's chances, and the one guy that could've been a spoiler (James Franco in Disaster Artist) managed to get fucked up by his sexual harassment charges.

[Dejana]

2 hours ago, methodwriter85 said:

It kind of seems like Lady Bird peaked too early for Laurie Metcalf's chances, and the one guy that could've been a spoiler (James Franco in Disaster Artist) managed to get fucked up by his sexual harassment charges.

Those allegations against Franco didn't get published and gain steam until voting for the Oscars had already started, so I'm not sure he wasn't on his way to being snubbed regardless. I can picture a lot of Anonymous Oscar Ballot types dismissing the movie as a 90-minute SNL sketch. Speaking of, a few of those articles got released last week and the real doozy was the guy who said he was confused about Dunkirk taking place in France, yet he also watched Darkest Hour five times and totally loved it! 

Denzel has never needed a strong Best Picture contender to get nominated but this year he's got in with the straight up flop, so I'm wondering if he's approaching Meryl status, where he just gets in if he makes anything that's even kind of in Oscar's wheelhouse.

Three Billboards seems like the frontrunner, but it lost at the PGAs, which also uses a preferential ballot like Best Picture, and missed in Director. There's a backlash, but IDK if it will be enough to stop it from winning, especially since it's not a two-horse race like in some other years. Plus, I think it's become a de-facto TimesUp nominee and the three billboards motif is being used in real-life political protests on both sides of the ocean, so the "importance" card might take it over the top.

Or, it could be The Shape of Water, or Get Out! 

Edited February 20, 2018 by Dejana

[starri]

Not to mention that we saw how La-La Land did in the run-up awards last year, and look how that turned out.  I think this is more unpredictable than we might have thought.

[hendersonrocks]

Here are Five Thirty Eight's final predictions, using a predictive model that weighs the different wins thus far (and compares it to past winners). 

They think best actor, actress, supporting actress, and animated feature are locked up but best supporting actor, director, and picture are not and they have "no clue" about best documentary.

[vibeology]

On ‎2‎/‎20‎/‎2018 at 12:34 AM, Dejana said:

Speaking of, a few of those articles got released last week and the real doozy was the guy who said he was confused about Dunkirk taking place in France, yet he also watched Darkest Hour five times and totally loved it! 

I saw that one and died laughing. Who are these people? It's so frustrating that so many of those blind ballots seem to be done by total dunderheads who contradict themselves at every turn because I have to think that's how the voting pool is as a whole.

[sweetcookieface]

Having finally seen Good Time, I'm really surprised Robert Pattinson didn't get more Oscar buzz. (I know some Oscar prognosticators mentioned him as a possible nomination, but only as a super-long shot.) Do you think it's that the film was just too small? That the Academy has difficulty seeing Patterson as a serious actor? It was the type of intense, transformative performance you'd think would capture their attention.

On a separate note, did anyone here  really like Darkest Hour? That, along with Phantom Thread, is the only BP nominee I haven't seen. I honestly have zero interest in Darkest Hour, but may make an effort to watch it before the Oscars just for the sake of completeness. I do have some interest in Phantom Thread, but I feel like I need to be in the mood for it since it strikes me as slow.

[NUguy514]

18 minutes ago, sweetcookieface said:

On a separate note, did anyone here  really like Darkest Hour?

Not really.  Whatever you think it is is exactly what it is.  There's nothing new, nothing absorbing, nothing very moving.  It kind of just plods along.  It exists to win Oldman an Oscar that Timothée Chalamet entirely deserves, and the impressive makeup job ensures that will happen.

[Shannon L.]

I loved Darkest Hour  ::shrug::

[Irlandesa]

9 hours ago, sweetcookieface said:

Having finally seen Good Time, I'm really surprised Robert Pattinson didn't get more Oscar buzz. (I know some Oscar prognosticators mentioned him as a possible nomination, but only as a super-long shot.) Do you think it's that the film was just too small?

Yes, I think the fact that it was too small is probably the reason.  And when a movie is that small, it needs to enter the Oscar zeitgeist in some way.  With a movie that small, it'd have to be the backing of its production company/distributor but A24 had Lady Bird and The Disaster Artist which ended up being higher profile. 

Robert Pattison might have done Twilight but he's British so I think he can afford to have that movie and still be taken seriously.

[Silver Raven]

Journalists are reporting that the outside of the Kodak Theater has no images of the Oscar and nobody is saying why.

[starri]

Do we include the Razzies here?  Not surprisingly, the Emoji Movie is the big winner/loser.  I do have to cry foul about Sofia Boutello being nominated as Worst Supporting Actress.  The part was crap, she was fine.

[Dejana]

Independent Spirit Awards — Winners List:

BEST FEATURE:  “Get Out”
BEST FIRST FEATURE:  “Ingrid Goes West”
JOHN CASSAVETES AWARD (best feature made for under $500,000):  “Life and Nothing More”
BEST DIRECTOR:  Jordan Peele, “Get Out”
BEST SCREENPLAY:  Greta Gerwig, “Lady Bird”
BEST FIRST SCREENPLAY:  Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani, “The Big Sick”
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:  Sayombhu Mukdeeprom, “Call Me by Your Name”
BEST EDITING:  Tatiana S. Riegel, “I, Tonya”
BEST FEMALE LEAD:  Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
BEST MALE LEAD:  Timothée Chalamet, “Call Me by Your Name”
BEST SUPPORTING FEMALE:  Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”
BEST SUPPORTING MALE:  Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
ROBERT ALTMAN AWARD:  “Mudbound”
BEST DOCUMENTARY:  “Faces Places,” directed by Agnés Varda, JR, produced by Rosalie Varda
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM:  “A Fantastic Woman,” Sebastián Lelio, Chile
BONNIE AWARD:  Chloé Zhao
JEEP TRUER THAN FICTION AWARD:  Jonathan Olshefski, Director of “Quest”
KIEHL’S SOMEONE TO WATCH AWARD:  Justin Chon, Director of “Gook”
PIAGET PRODUCERS AWARD:  Giulia Caruso & Ki Jin Kim / Ben LeClair / Summer Shelton

 

The Best Picture Preferential Ballot Explained:

[scarynikki12]

I can't remember, @Shannon L. did you ever see Shape of Water?

[SeanC]

I think it's easy to overlook what an outside-the-box choice The Shape of Water is for the Academy.  It's almost certainly the weirdest film to ever win Best Picture.

[methodwriter85]

13 minutes ago, SeanC said:

I think it's easy to overlook what an outside-the-box choice The Shape of Water is for the Academy.  It's almost certainly the weirdest film to ever win Best Picture.

I liked 3 Billboards better, but it was definitely a kooky choice especially when something like Dunkirk or The Darkest Hour is more their speed.

[thuganomics85]

Nothing too unexpected, but its crazy that after all the initial hype, Lady Bird ended up getting shutout in the end.  To be fair, so did The Post but I always kind of suspected that was going to be a bridesmaid to a lot of things, but Lady Bird was somewhat of a frontrunner at one point.  Not sure what exactly happened.  I especially feel bad for Saoirse Ronan, because this is the second time where I felt like she would have won any other year, but just happen to be in the same year of someone who was pretty much cleaning house (Brie Larson and Frances McDormand.)

Other then that, they pretty much spread the wealth.  Shape of Water took Best Picture, Director, Score, and Production Design, Call Me By Your Name got Adapted Screenplay while Get Out got Original, Three Billboards got Actress and Supporting Actor, Darkest Hour got Actor and Makeup, Dunkirk got Editing and the Sound Awards, and Phantom Thread got Costume Design.  The biggest wins by non Best Picture nominees where I, Tonya getting Supporting Actress and Blade Runner 2049 taking Visual Effects and Cinematography (go Roger Deakins!)  Oh, and Coco got both Best Animated Feature and Best Song.

Edited March 5, 2018 by thuganomics85

[Shannon L.]

1 hour ago, scarynikki12 said:

I can't remember, @Shannon L. did you ever see Shape of Water?

I did not see it. But this year wouldn't have been a good test since I didn't see 3 Billboards, Dunkirk or Phantom Thread, either.

While Shape of Water was a bit of a surprise, because I'd have put money on 3 Billboards, I figured it was the one that would challenge 3 Billboards, so a bigger surprise would have been any of the others winning. 

I'm beyond irritated that Baby Driver didn't win best sound effects or mixing. 

[scarynikki12]

I’m still taking it as proof of your powers. Thanks for the assist!

[absnow54]

So Shape of Water defied the curse of not being nominated for a SAG for Best Ensemble and losing screenplay. When Get Out won for original screenplay, I thought it might sneak in and take the top prize.

I'm beyond irritated that Baby Driver didn't win best sound effects or mixing.

Dunkirk was deserving, but I really wish they'd split those awards. The sound editing in Baby Driver was phenomenal.

[Shannon L.]

45 minutes ago, absnow54 said:

Dunkirk was deserving, but I really wish they'd split those awards. The sound editing in Baby Driver was phenomenal.

Yeah, it was the sound editing loss that surprised us the most.  We were hoping for a split, too, but knew it wouldn't happen.

I also thought This is Me was the best song with the one by Mary J. Blige a close second.  But, what do I know? 

[JessePinkman]

It's funny that a woman/fish love story was the safest win this year.

I didn't like it, the story felt hollow, like you were supposed to love the movie because of the concept not because the characters were well drawn or the story was told well.

[vibeology]

For an awards season that looked like it could be dramatic, it ended up being very predictable. All four acting awards were all but certain and director and adapted screenplay were close to locks too. It was really only Best Picture and Original Screenplay where there seemed to be any sort of competition.

I'd resigned myself to these results but I'm sad that both The Florida Project and Lady Bird ended up shut out on Oscars night after performing so well with in critics circles.

[NUguy514]

Random thoughts: I loved The Shape of Water, but I honestly would've been happy with pretty much any nominee winning Best Picture over Three Shitboards.  I love that del Toro joined his two buddies, Cuarón and Iñárritu, in the winner's circle!  Honestly, outside of the four acting winners (none of whom were at all deserving in my opinion) and Kobe Bryant, I was thrilled with the winners.  In time, I think I'll be happy Janney has an Oscar, and I'll just pretend it was for American Beauty or something and hope Laurie Metcalf wins won at some point.  Same with Rockwell to a lesser extent, although I'll forever be bothered that that character won him an Oscar.  McDormand's speech completely made up for my annoyance at her winning, though, and then some!  I'll never not be chafed that Oldman won that Oscar, though, both because he has said and done some shady shit in his past and because Timothée Chalamet gave one of the best performances in the last few years.  Gael García Bernal sounded terrrrrrrrible singing "Remember Me"; I could only watch ten seconds before I had to fast-forward.  Still, that song, in the context of Coco, was so deserving; Best Song was a fabulous category this year, though.  I am so excited for Jordan Peele, and I got emotional when James Ivory and Roger Deakins FINALLLLLLLY won.

Also, this is the first year I didn't watch the ceremony live.  I went to see Black Panther instead, so I was able to fast-forward through pretty much everything that didn't interest me; it too only a little over an hour, and it was fantastic.

[starri]

1 hour ago, NUguy514 said:

I'll never not be chafed that Oldman won that Oscar, though, both because he has said and done some shady shit in his past and because Timothée Chalamet gave one of the best performances in the last few years

My other issue with that was that Oldman was playing the role with  subtext of "Give me an Oscar now," which annoyed me.  Churchill is really easy to play, and really hard to play well, and the high-water mark for me remains Albert Finney in HBO's The Gathering Storm.

I was very, very happy for James Ivory.  I truly don't understand how he hasn't won one long before now.

ETA:  Amazon Fire TV had a list of all the Best Picture winners (all of them, going back to Wings) with links to plays you could watch them...except for Moonlight.  I'm sure there's probably a streaming rights reason with that, but considering the subject matter made for a pretty historic BP win, and that it was the ONLY ONE not there, it wasn't a good look.

Edited March 5, 2018 by starri

[vibeology]

20 minutes ago, starri said:

I was very, very happy for James Ivory.  I truly don't understand how he hasn't won one long before now.

Yep. I don't love the screenplay for CMBYN (it's very good, don't get me wrong, but I do think it doesn't feel young) but I don't care because I'm happy he got a win and it's not like there was anyone else in that category so much more deserving. Logan was my favourite but CMBYN was a very close second. And hearing James Ivory talk about Ismail Merchant was very touching.

[absnow54]

6 hours ago, starri said:

ETA:  Amazon Fire TV had a list of all the Best Picture winners (all of them, going back to Wings) with links to plays you could watch them...except for Moonlight.  I'm sure there's probably a streaming rights reason with that, but considering the subject matter made for a pretty historic BP win, and that it was the ONLY ONE not there, it wasn't a good look.

That's weird since Moonlight streams for free on Amazon Prime. 

[thuganomics85]

Never too early to talk about Oscar season, right?  Because it looks they might be adding a category to recognize "popular films" a.k.a. films audiences actually see, heh.  I have no idea what to think at the moment.

Although, really, if they're doing it next year, they might as well go ahead and engrave Black Panther's name into trophy, because I can't see anything else beating it.  Sorry, Thanos and the rest of the Avengers!