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S31: Spoilers


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I can't help wondering if Abi will get mad at Dietz for having to leave because of his son's heart illness & need for transplant. I'm sure she'll find a way to turn his departure into a personal insult against her. If Angkor loses immunity but there's no tribal, she'll be mad and blame Dietz because she couldn't get Woo voted out.

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To finally put this to bed:

 

“A Snake In The Grass” – One castaway embraces a new, more personal style of play for his second chance. (Spencer) Also, one castaway risks ruining a good thing by going against her own alliance (Monica), on SURVIVOR, Wednesday, Oct. 21 (8:00-9:00 PM, ET/PT) on the CBS Television Network.
CHEAT TWEET:  Would you play it safe or vote against your alliance? (Kimmi AND Jeremy and Stephen were the ones questioning this)   One castaway must decide on #SurvivorSecondChance 10/21 8PM http://bit.ly/1LQQIBd


I can't help wondering if Abi will get mad at Dietz for having to leave because of his son's heart illness & need for transplant. I'm sure she'll find a way to turn his departure into a personal insult against her. If Angkor loses immunity but there's no tribal, she'll be mad and blame Dietz because she couldn't get Woo voted out.

Tribe swap next week was confirmed. Wonder what Stephen's big move is?

Edited by anthonyd46
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So the bootlist is looking really credible right about now. I am saddened that this means the probable loss of Woo soon for both the loss of wonderful eye candy and the fact this will make Abi happy. Also, Abi's going to be on our screens for a long time to come.

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So the bootlist is looking really credible right about now. I am saddened that this means the probable loss of Woo soon for both the loss of wonderful eye candy and the fact this will make Abi happy. Also, Abi's going to be on our screens for a long time to come.

I was pretty confident it was right for episode 5, but not so sure on the Woo boot. We know there is a tribe swap and Woo is getting some decent content. I guess until we see his new tribe can't know for sure. Kass as the merge boot looks pretty unlikely right now. They have a group of 5 though I guess that could change at a merge. I think that list is going to go off the rails eventually, just not sure where or when. 

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I still don't think Jeff Probsts comments about Jeremy scream winner, though probst is wrong at times. 

 

Jeremy is an interesting contestant. He had a disappointing finish last time because he was one of the few people who really understood the game – and was a threat because of it. This time, he's playing with experts, so his skills don't stand out as much, but they're still there.

 

That isn't the biggest ringing endorsement.

 

She was burdened by being a Christian last time, and she did not want to do anything that would offend the church. She got home and people said, "What is your problem? Go play Survivor and then ask for forgiveness." Tasha said it brought her to tears to get that support from her congregation, and it released all her barriers. So she plays a devil's game this time. It's very clear from day one that she's going to play the game hard – and she makes some interesting choices along the way.

 

He's one of my all-time favorites. Last time, I proved that I often have no idea what I'm talking about. I was glad he came back. This was Spencer's story from day one until the game was over for him: Can I treat people as people this time? If he's insufferable, he'll be gone. That's his Achilles heel. Spencer has to be likable, vulnerable, relatable, curious, asking questions. That's the Spencer we need to see.

 

Kelley had a rough first season because she was playing along with her dad. She felt like she was judged the way her dad played. She came back with an attitude. "Listen, if you think I'm my dad, I will smoke you." From the get-go, she comes to play, and she plays very hard.

I would argue that none of those are ringing endorsements.

 

There's some interesting stuff if you combine the edit with the bootlist. The takeo five seemingly for the most part get taken out early. Jeremy loses his no.2 Stephen early and Abi and Kelley go deep.  I actually want to see how that plays out.

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I would argue that none of those are ringing endorsements.

 

There's some interesting stuff if you combine the edit with the bootlist. The takeo five seemingly for the most part get taken out early. Jeremy loses his no.2 Stephen early and Abi and Kelley go deep.  I actually want to see how that plays out.

I know, but saying his skills don't show as much for a winner ?

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Jeff is saying that his skills aren't as obvious because he's no longer playing against amateurs. That says more about Jeremy's competition then it says about Jeremy.

Ok that makes sense. Also want to point out one still active spoiler other than the boot list that has been right so far is the Facebook spoiler on Day 24 it was noticed that, Kimmi, PG, Jeff, Monica, and Vytas had all been active on Facebook recently. 4 of 5 have been booted so far. Kimmi is the only one left standing. Facebook says she is out by Day 24, but that bootlist claims she is there till almost the end as does weight loss. Something to keep an eye on.

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Yep, no way around that one especially since the boot list specifically says she makes the family visit.

The kass boot on that list is another one to look out for. That boot spot normally tends to be tailored towards someone who is either an immunity threat or an alliance leader. Kass is neither.

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Boot list aside, Kimmi, Jeremy, Keith, Spencer, Kelley, and Tasha were all speculated to go far due to weight loss/family visit or some other misc evidence that indicated they made it far.  I wouldn't be surprised for at least one of them to be out much earlier than expected.  So far, I feel like no one has been an overly shocking boot.  I thought Shirin might go far due to alliances but also thought there was a chance she'd get herself in trouble and be an early boot, since there was nothing to prove she went far.

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Yep, no way around that one especially since the boot list specifically says she makes the family visit.

The kass boot on that list is another one to look out for. That boot spot normally tends to be tailored towards someone who is either an immunity threat or an alliance leader. Kass is neither.

Yea I think theres going to be some errors along the way, but I'm pretty sure the edit has shown us bootlist or not Keith, Kelley, Kimmi, Tasha, Spencer, Jeremy are not going anywhere for a while 3 of those 6 will be the final 3. It might not be Tasha, Spencer, Jeremy exactly, but I would be shocked if 3 of those 6 are not the final 3 at this point. We really are just not getting enough content from anyone else other than maybe Kass, but I just think she is not going to survive that many TCS

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Boot list aside, Kimmi, Jeremy, Keith, Spencer, Kelley, and Tasha were all speculated to go far due to weight loss/family visit or some other misc evidence that indicated they made it far.  I wouldn't be surprised for at least one of them to be out much earlier than expected.  So far, I feel like no one has been an overly shocking boot.  I thought Shirin might go far due to alliances but also thought there was a chance she'd get herself in trouble and be an early boot, since there was nothing to prove she went far.

Other than those 6 and Kass though I don't think anyone is showing us any threat that they are sticking around though?

 

Ill just go by tribe here 

 

Abi - goat or annoying boot

Savage - Too much talk about blindsides/being screwed he's getting screwed by something

Woo - Challenge threat at merge gone to prevent a challenge streak

Tasha - in the weight loss 6

 

Kass- Possible redemption edit could be in the end

Terry - quit

Kelley - In the weight loss 6

Ciera - Not getting important enough content

Keith - In the weight loss 6

Joe - See woo

 

Stephen - Overplaying will cost him

Jeremy- In the weight loss 6

Spencer - In the weight loss 6

Kelly Wigs - I still don't know what to think???? Such a weird edit 

Kimmi - In the weight loss 6 

Didn't the person who leaked the boot list say that the merge order might not be accurate, but everyone pre-merge and the F3 were correct?

Yes but as I said above here I really can't see anyone else outside of those 6 containing the final 3 other than a surprise kass

Edited by anthonyd46
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It is hard to say with editing.  Mike got a really rough edit at the start of last season, then became the ultimate underdog to the boring and nasty alliance of six.  Natalie was practically MIA for the first half of the season.  Natalie White, of course playing second fiddle to Russell Hantz, got an unmemorable edit.  I don't know that I would have said Tony got a winner's edit, either.  I do think there is a definite theme with the whole "redemption" and "destiny", and that some people are either going to get screwed the same way they did the first time, or something they did in the past is going to come back at them this time.

 

It surprised me with that boot list that Joe would go so far, unless he goes on an immunity run.  I can buy Kass being the first merge boot.  They may be afraid she's a loose cannon or hasn't changed and want her out ASAP.  Likely they don't know she will also be the first juror, which would be hysterical if Spencer and Tasha push madly for her to get voted out, and her vote in the final TC screws one of them out of a million.

 

I agree about Kelly's edit being weird.  

Edited by LadyChatts
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Abi could sneak in as a goat since they're setting up Abi vs Tasha in the future.   But other then that I'm not seeing much else in the edit outside of the mentioned six to justify a f3 appearance.

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Abi could sneak in as a goat since they're setting up Abi vs Tasha in the future.   But other then that I'm not seeing much else in the edit outside of the mentioned six to justify a f3 appearance.

Yea exactly though I'm still waiting for this compelling story on Kelly Wigs that Jeff Probst promised. Not sure how compelling 3rd juror can be.

It is hard to say with editing.  Mike got a really rough edit at the start of last season, then became the ultimate underdog to the boring and nasty alliance of six.  Natalie was practically MIA for the first half of the season.  Natalie White, of course playing second fiddle to Russell Hantz, got an unmemorable edit.  I don't know that I would have said Tony got a winner's edit, either.  I do think there is a definite theme with the whole "redemption" and "destiny", and that some people are either going to get screwed the same way they did the first time, or something they did in the past is going to come back at them this time.

 

It surprised me with that boot list that Joe would go so far, unless he goes on an immunity run.  I can buy Kass being the first merge boot.  They may be afraid she's a loose cannon or hasn't changed and want her out ASAP.  Likely they don't know she will also be the first juror, which would be hysterical if Spencer and Tasha push madly for her to get voted out, and her vote in the final TC screws one of them out of a million.

 

I agree about Kelly's edit being weird.  

Joe is in that 5 person alliance if it stays together.

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Will next week be a double boot?  We know Terry is leaving the next episode, but will there still be another boot?  Per Redmond the tribe swap happens at 14, which would be after Terry leaves.  Funny how they were basically giving it away in this episode about the new swap happening, considering they've never done two tribe swaps in a season before.

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I am thinking next week will be a double boot. I wonder if that shot of Probst waking Terry up in the promo happens the night after this last TC, seems to fit the timeline of when he supposedly leaves.

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I am thinking next week will be a double boot. I wonder if that shot of Probst waking Terry up in the promo happens the night after this last TC, seems to fit the timeline of when he supposedly leaves.

 

That's what I'm thinking.  If the tribe swap happens at 14, then that would happen the next episode as well.  It looked like Terry was still at Ta'Keo, as was Kass and it looked like Joe and Keith sleeping there.  So that likely happens before the next tribe swap/challenge.

Edited by LadyChatts
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Will next week be a double boot?  We know Terry is leaving the next episode, but will there still be another boot?  Per Redmond the tribe swap happens at 14, which would be after Terry leaves.  Funny how they were basically giving it away in this episode about the new swap happening, considering they've never done two tribe swaps in a season before.

– Survivor: Gabon

This season was the first to have two swaps (unless you count All-Stars‘ dissolve and swap). The first swap had the tribes rank their members by most useful to least useful and then had a schoolyard pick from the #1 ranked players. Some Survivor fans believe that the second swap was producer manipulation to help the more entertaining, but incompetent Fang tribe, for there was a “swap feast” when in most seasons there is a merge feast. The fact that the immunity challenge was obviously intended to be an individual immunity challenge further supports this theory.

 

So its tech the third time

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Not crazy about parts of the boot list, but I like Jeremy and Survivor is way overdue for an African-American winner.  If that list plays out, at least there will be some characters I hate getting some serious frowny face.

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phlebas, on 22 Oct 2015 - 06:44 AM, said:

Not crazy about parts of the boot list, but I like Jeremy and Survivor is way overdue for an African-American winner.

Agreed, but we've already had two African-American winners -- Vecepia from Marquesas and Earl from Fiji.

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Agreed, but we've already had two African-American winners -- Vecepia from Marquesas and Earl from Fiji.

Yes. Vecepia in in season 4, Earl in season 14. Fiji was 9 years ago.  To stick to their schedule, Sabrina should have won season 24, but she had to face the fierce headwind of Hurricane Kimspradlin.

 

They did try over and over with James.

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I love to read the comments posted the day or so before the ep. airs, once the ep. has aired. Fun to see what everyone thinks ahead of time, after the fact.

Woo has started getting more screen time, so yeah, he's toast. Terry saying over and over last night how much fun he's having is the biggest sign ever that he's leaving.

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It's interesting that the editing seems to be suggesting a Tyson/Gervase situation with Jeremy and Spencer (with Jeremy as Tyson and Spencer as Gervase). I still think that boot list is credible, including the winner, because I can't think of a finalist in history that's won with a "I became a better person" argument (maybe Boston Rob, but I recall his confessionals being more about his control of the game, not "I'm learning to be a real boy!"). Jeremy will likely have an idol find, and will seemingly be the dominant face of his alliance -- plus have the majority (?) of the jury as old Bayon (or old Ta'Keo who didn't like Spencer). Seems like a plausible winner to me.

Edited by Eolivet
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Press pics released.

 

NunuBayon has: Jeremy, Kimmi, Stephen, Keith, Tasha, Kelley, Joe

The other tribe which loses the gross food IC: Ciera, Kass, Spencer, Woo, Kelly, Abi, Savage

 

Poor Woo. He never got away from Abi thruout the game.

 

Note: Ciera couldnt hack it when she had to do Gross Food in her season. Not surprising that her tribe loses.

Edited by wonald
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The kass boot on that list is another one to look out for. That boot spot normally tends to be tailored towards someone who is either an immunity threat or an alliance leader. Kass is neither.

 

I disagree with this. First jury members are usually portrayed as good players who have some sense of what is going around enough to be dangerous but are probably portrayed as better players than they probably were.

 

Alina (s21), Jonas (s24), Michael Snow (s26), Sarah (s28) are all recent examples who were neither alliance leaders nor immunity threats. That's why a lot of people thought Varner was getting this edit before his too early exit.

 

By that definition, Kass is getting a good First Jury edit.

Edited by wonald
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I am looking forward to seeing how Woo gets booted out of a tribe of Ciera, Kass, Spencer, Woo, Kelly, Abi, and Savage, He doesn't seem like the most logical target. My guess is that Abi drives this one by just getting out front with an anti-Woo vendetta and then everyone else jumping on board because it's safe. Old Bayon members are outnumbered, Spencer isn't in an alliance with anyone on the list, and per all reports, Wigles isn't interested in the strategizing aspect. Also, Abi seems able to charm people initially if nothing brings out her particular brand of paranoia, so maybe she charms Kass and Ciera.

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I am looking forward to seeing how Woo gets booted out of a tribe of Ciera, Kass, Spencer, Woo, Kelly, Abi, and Savage, He doesn't seem like the most logical target. My guess is that Abi drives this one by just getting out front with an anti-Woo vendetta and then everyone else jumping on board because it's safe. Old Bayon members are outnumbered, Spencer isn't in an alliance with anyone on the list, and per all reports, Wigles isn't interested in the strategizing aspect. Also, Abi seems able to charm people initially if nothing brings out her particular brand of paranoia, so maybe she charms Kass and Ciera.

Well we have no guarantee the bootlist is going to continue being correct. We also have no shots of Ta Keo. I understand that might be because of the Terry thing, however, no one says they need to take a group shot of the tribe. Theres enough Ta keo on it  the remain on the same tribe where they still could have put them in there. There is a shot of probst in a black shirt on Day 19 in the press photos. Not sure how that matches up with things. However, if Bayon does lose the IC then Woo would be safe.

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Last night's discussion of heart transplants was chilling and foreboding knowing what we know is to come with Terry.  Also, I just had a sense of sadness for Terry feeling like he was on top of the world (even though he wasn't as we learned when he was at the 'grocery store', hee!), only to be pulled out in such serious circumstances.  It happens that quick....

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I am looking forward to seeing how Woo gets booted out of a tribe of Ciera, Kass, Spencer, Woo, Kelly, Abi, and Savage, He doesn't seem like the most logical target. My guess is that Abi drives this one by just getting out front with an anti-Woo vendetta and then everyone else jumping on board because it's safe. Old Bayon members are outnumbered, Spencer isn't in an alliance with anyone on the list, and per all reports, Wigles isn't interested in the strategizing aspect. Also, Abi seems able to charm people initially if nothing brings out her particular brand of paranoia, so maybe she charms Kass and Ciera.

Woo is an easy one to understand. He was not aligned with Spencer, he flat out turned Spencer and Shirin away. He is not aligned with Abi. He voted for her twice. Savage might like Woo, but he was part of the original Bayon and so has relationships with Ciera and Kass. He will put that above his new ties with Angkor. Woo was not alligned with Kelley at original Ta Koe and she is ok driving bus over other folks. Kelly was aligned with Spencer and could be interested in protecting him. Kelley has an alliance with Ciera and Kass so I can see Kelley offering up Woo or Abi. I can see Ciera and Kass wanting to take out Woo as a immunity threat. So Woo could easily get votes from Spencer, Kelley, Ciera, Kass, Andrew and Abi.

 

Yeah, the heart transplant stories last night were hard to hear because of Terry's son. Next week's episode topic should be interesting.

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I can totally see how Woo would get the boot.  He's been blindsided twice, and I'm thinking if Abi had it her way, would have been voted out over Varner.  The only time he was in the loop with anything was with the Shirin/Spencer vote, and that was a gimme.  He's at the bottom of Ta'Keo, or any other alliance that manages to scoop him up for a vote.  He's just there, and the only way he'd survive is if someone else foils their own game.  I don't even know if Abi will have anything to do with the vote.  Plus, if they suspect the merge is coming, they may want to get rid of someone that could physically be a threat, and have him weasel his way into some underdog alliance in the process.

 

I wonder if the other tribe does in fact go to Ta'Keo or Angkor.  The idol hasn't been found yet.  Maybe they divide up, and whatever tribe loses goes to Angkor, and the other tribe can decide if they want to go to Bayon or Ta'Keo, and they pick Bayon.  

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I can totally understand how Woo can be voted off; it's more the why. It seems like there should be higher priority people in terms of getting out strategic threats or people-who-are-annoying-to-live-with, and Spencer and Savage seem like comparable challenge threats.

 

Woo was not alligned with Kelley at original Ta Koe and she is ok driving bus over other folks. Kelly was aligned with Spencer and could be interested in protecting him. Kelley has an alliance with Ciera and Kass so I can see Kelley offering up Woo or Abi.
I can't view the pictures, so I can't confirm the list has this correct. But the list has Kelly, no "e", on Woo's tribe. That's Wigles, who Woo was in an alliance with and Spencer, Ciera, and Kass were not. Kelley is listed as being on new Bayon.
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With the merge coming up, Woo is an immunity threat and a fairly easy boot if you want to hide your alliance behind "Bayon immunity" the only other contender is Spencer but he's been known to worm his way out of tight situations.

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Bayon winning immunity is no guarantee from what we have seen so far. Obviously that might chance as the week goes on.

 

ONE CASTAWAY IS PULLED FROM THE GAME DUE TO A FAMILY EMERGENCY, ON “SURVIVOR,” WEDNESDAY, OCT. 28

         “Bunking with the Devil” – One castaway is pulled from the game due to a family emergency. Also, Tribes drop their buffs and switch it up for the second time, and castaways chow down on local delicacies in a classic immunity challenge,

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wonald, on 22 Oct 2015 - 10:50 AM, said:

I disagree with this. First jury members are usually portrayed as good players who have some sense of what is going around enough to be dangerous but are probably portrayed as better players than they probably were.

 

Alina (s21), Jonas (s24), Michael Snow (s26), Sarah (s28) are all recent examples who were neither alliance leaders nor immunity threats. That's why a lot of people thought Varner was getting this edit before his too early exit.

 

By that definition, Kass is getting a good First Jury edit.

I'd throw in R.C. from Philippines, as well.  While not in the core alliance and certainly not an immunity threat, she had a decent head for what was happening.

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Yes, I agree about RC. I was blanking on who were first jurists on the RI seasons, then remembered that it was David Murphy and Jim Rice. They both got classic first jurists boots edits also.

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Yes, I agree about RC. I was blanking on who were first jurists on the RI seasons, then remembered that it was David Murphy and Jim Rice. They both got classic first jurists boots edits also.

I left David and Jim out, however, because they were alliance leaders, and Jim was an immunity threat.  Your list was of those who were neither of those.

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I left David and Jim out, however, because they were alliance leaders, and Jim was an immunity threat.  Your list was of those who were neither of those.

 

David was at the bottom of the Zapatera 5.

Jim is arguable with Ozzy there.

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I'd throw in R.C. from Philippines, as well. While not in the core alliance and certainly not an immunity threat, she had a decent head for what was happening.

I recall RC being a beast in challenges, especially water ones. Regardless, she was targeted for social reasons moreso than strategy.

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LadyChatts wrote: "I wonder if the other tribe does in fact go to Ta'Keo or Angkor.  The idol hasn't been found yet.  Maybe they divide up, and whatever tribe loses goes to Angkor, and the other tribe can decide if they want to go to Bayon or Ta'Keo, and they pick Bayon."

 

Now that would be a twist. I like the way you think Ms. Chatts. But really the 'Have Not' tribe on the Angkor camp would be just completely dooming them to IC failure except for the fact that we know(?) this is only a one (two?) episode shuffle before the merge, so it would be the ultimate 'psych!' on the show. I was disappointed to see that Redmond confirmed that they go back to Bayon and Ta'Keo camps. Would have been interesting angle in an already interesting episode.

 

This episode coming up does seem to confirm that the producers don't have every twist planned in advance and set in stone (if you ever really believed that). Without Terry going home the realignment back to 2 tribes would had to have taken place next episode to get an even split.

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LadyChatts wrote: "I wonder if the other tribe does in fact go to Ta'Keo or Angkor.  The idol hasn't been found yet.  Maybe they divide up, and whatever tribe loses goes to Angkor, and the other tribe can decide if they want to go to Bayon or Ta'Keo, and they pick Bayon."

 

Now that would be a twist. I like the way you think Ms. Chatts. But really the 'Have Not' tribe on the Angkor camp would be just completely dooming them to IC failure except for the fact that we know(?) this is only a one (two?) episode shuffle before the merge, so it would be the ultimate 'psych!' on the show. I was disappointed to see that Redmond confirmed that they go back to Bayon and Ta'Keo camps. Would have been interesting angle in an already interesting episode.

 

This episode coming up does seem to confirm that the producers don't have every twist planned in advance and set in stone (if you ever really believed that). Without Terry going home the realignment back to 2 tribes would had to have taken place next episode to get an even split.

 

Thanks!  Ta'Keo is really the much better camp at this point thanks to all the rewards they've won.  This will be like heaven for the members of Angkor going over there.  Personally, I think the losing camp should really get the short end of the stick and go to the worse camp.  But I'm not in charge.  During Fiji, I know there was an IC where they gave the 'haves' tribe the option of forfeiting immunity or giving up their luxurious camp.  I actually liked that idea, and maybe that could have been something to use here.  So far I'm failing to see why this location/season are so tough.  This has been one of the best seasons for rewards so far. 

 

ETA: Here's another boot interview from Monica; she seems to have let it slip that Jeremy does in fact make the merge.  I'm wondering if the 'we' is her and the other pre-jurors, or her and Kimmi (and obviously Kimmi didn't let it slip that she was the one who targeted her).  This would also explain how Jeff got that photo of Kimmi and Joe, if all the pre-jurors wound up at the airport at the same time as the merge crowd.

 

I love bitter contestants who let things slip.

 

http://www.torontosun.com/2015/10/23/survivors-monica-padilla-brushes-off-epic-blindside

 

“I never thought that it was Kimmi who voted for me. Kimmi and I were tight. When we came back from the trip from Asia, we ended up running into the jury at the airport and I saw Jeremy. I went and gave him a big hug and said, ‘Oh my god, good play. Who was it?’ He said, ‘You don’t know?’ I was astonished. That’s when I found out.”

 

Edited by LadyChatts
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Alina (s21), Jonas (s24), Michael Snow (s26), Sarah (s28) are all recent examples who were neither alliance leaders nor immunity threats. That's why a lot of people thought Varner was getting this edit before his too early exit.

 

Admittedly I haven't been keeping up with recent survivors. But wasn't Sarah the victim of a tribal where ten million idols were played? 

 

So those screenshots show Ciera facing off against Jeremy in the food challenge.

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